Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Hero Indian Open Tips 2025

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Stats Pages For This Event:

 

As suspected, last week’s Singapore Classic suffered at the hands of the weather meaning a 54-hole tournament and ultimately our headline selection Haotong Li finishing in that golf betting black hole that is a tie for 9th place.

On we go and the DP World Tour heads north-west to India as we complete our 2-week mini-swing in the east. A field containing a mix of DP World Tour regulars and a smattering of local players who have been granted national spots will tee it up around the tough, quirky Gary Player course at DLF Golf and Country Club.

Defending champion Keita Nakajima heads the betting this week at 16/1 from the likes of Matthew Jordan, Joost Luiten and Jorge Campillo in this field of 138.

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DLF G&CC. Designer: Gary Player, 2015; Course Type: Technical; Par: 72; Length: 7,416 yards; Water Hazards: 6 in play; Fairways: Celebration Bermuda; Rough: Celebration Bermuda; Greens: Bermuda Mini Verde.

Course Overview. After a couple of years at the tight, tree-lined sub-7,000 yard Delhi Golf Club, this event moved to Gary Player’s new course in 2017 as the track made its debut on the DP World Tour.

In stark contrast to the previous venue, Player has carved a brute out of the Aravalli Hills which stretches to 7,657 yards in length from the Gold tees, however, as per previous years, the professionals will be playing from some of the forward tees this week, meaning that the parkland-style track will play as a 7,416 yard, Par 72 with the potential for different tees to be used as the tournament progresses which may well reduce the yardage even further.

Built to the latest golf design standards including a full sub-air system, the layout features severe elevation changes, eye-catching bunkering and large, undulating greens.

Fairways are fairly narrow and water features heavily on 6 holes, including the par-3 5th which is to an island green as the front 9 (the ‘Lake 9’) meanders around the 2 lakes that the course flanks. The back 9 (the ‘Quarry 9’) is the longest of the two and contains the holes with the most elevation change. Bermudagrass has been used throughout the construction with Mini Verde the strain of choice on the greens.

hero indian open tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Indian Open that will help to shape a view on players who may go well this week, with results taken from the events held on this course since 2017 on the DP World Tour and the PGTI/Asian Tour: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Form Stats.

Course Winners.

  • Asian Tour: 2025: Ollie Schniederjans (-10)
  • PGTI: 2023: Karan Pratap Singh (-7, 54 holes); 2022: Varun Parikh (-11)
  • DP World Tour: 2024: Keita Nakajima (-17, 33/1); 2023: Marcel Siem (-14, 33/1); 2019: Stephen Gallacher (-9, 150/1); 2018: Matt Wallace (-11, 66/1); SSP Chawrasia (-10, 80/1).

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

The tournament should enjoy sunny conditions with hot temperatures (mid-90s Fahrenheit) and relatively light winds expected, with nothing more than 10-15mph in the forecast.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Stats from the 5 winners here at DP World Tour level gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2024: Keita Nakajima (-17). 309 yards (17th), 64% fairways (45th), 75.0% greens in regulation (20th), 38.9% scrambling (54th), 1.50 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2023: Marcel Siem (-14). 309 yards (5th), 75% fairways (13th), 86.1% greens in regulation (2nd), 40% scrambling (44th), 1.72 putts per GIR (12th)
  • 2019: Stephen Gallacher (-9). 291 yards (32nd), 66.1% fairways (45th), 76.4% greens in regulation (12th), 41.2% scrambling (35th), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 2018: Matt Wallace (-11) . 294 yards (18th), 82.1% fairways (9th), 66.7% greens in regulation (31st), 58.3% scrambling (5th), 1.58 putts per GIR (3rd)
  • 2017: SSP Chawrasia (-10). 266 yards (67th), 76.8% fairways (12th), 66.7% greens in regulation (31st), 75% scrambling (1st), 1.71 putts per GIR (7th)

The greens are huge, particularly on the back 9, and players who miss the putting surfaces in regulation need to have a razor-sharp short game to save them from dropping shots. The greens themselves are excellent quality, however it’s critical to find the right portion of putting surfaces given the undulations, so quality lag putting is also an important strength to possess. It’s no surprise to see that each of our winners above had ranked inside the top 12 for putts per GIR on the week.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, stats for the last 3 DP World Tour level winners here are as follows:

  • 2024: Keita Nakajima: T: 31st; A: 24th; T2G: 30th; ATG: 45th; P: 1st
  • 2023: Marcel Siem: T: 1st; A: 19th; T2G: 9th; ATG: 45th; P: 4th
  • 2019: Stephen Gallacher: T: 49th; A: 2nd; T2G: 4th; ATG: 10th; P: 13th

Stats are patchy for all three renewals, however the most consistent statistic of those who contended on each occasion was SG Tee to Green. However, what set the eventual winner apart from the nearest challengers was performance on the greens, with event Stephen Gallacher who isn’t regarded as the best of putters performing well on the putting surfaces.

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

 

Incoming Form. Of the 8 course winners, PGTI winners Varun Parikh and Karan Pratap Singh had the most tangible recent form, albeit at lower levels. In keeping with that, just last month Ollie Schniederjans arrived off of a long break following the end of his Korn Ferry campaign to win here on the Asian Tour ahead of his LIV debut in Riyadh – his last top-10 finish at any level had been the previous April.

Last year’s Indian Open champion Keita Nakajima had ended his Japan Tour season in some style with a win and three successive top-10 finishes before finishing 4th in Ras al Khaimah at DP World Tour level, however there wasn’t that much to note from that point. Progressive rounds of 73/70/69/68 the week before in Singapore suggested that his form might be heading towards a peak though.

2023 winner Marcel Siem grabbed his first win for just over 8 years in the February of that year, arriving off the back of back-to-back 17th place finishes in Singapore and Thailand in the two weeks before.

Prior to that, Stephen Gallacher won off the back of 4 straight missed cuts, and you have to go all the way back to the Dunhill Links the previous October before you find a top-10 finish to his name.

It’s fair to say that the incoming form of the other two winners was subtle at best. Matt Wallace had recorded his best finish of the season on his previous start in Qatar when finishing 19th a fortnight before winning here; likewise Chawrasia had also recorded his best result of the season on his last start, 35th at the World Super 6 in Perth.

  • 2025: Ollie Schniederjans: 69/54/11/MC/MC/MC/26/19/WD/MC/46/35
  • 2024: Keita Nakajima:10/51/1/20/2/4/2/4/MC/33/MC/29
  • 2023: Karan Pratap Singh: 34/18/2/1/MC/27/13/MC/27/14/6/16
  • 2023: Marcel Siem: 28/20/37/MC/43/16/5/47/19/MC/17/17
  • 2022: Varun Parikh: 37/MC/MC/21/23/29/52/53/MC/30/3/20/MC
  • 2019: Stephen Gallacher: 44/10/70/29/35/60/MC/67/MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2018: Matt Wallace: 59/4/18/54/34/30/38/32/37/MC/44/19
  • 2017: SSP Chawrasia: MC/MC/34/71/47/1/MC/70/MC/MC/MC/35

Course Form: Of the 8 course winners, only Stephen Gallacher in 2019 and Marcel Siem in 2023  had any tangible course form, with Gallacher having finished 29th on debut and 7th the year before his win, and Siem having finished 29th on his debut also:

  • 2025: Ollie Schniederjans: Debut
  • 2024: Keita Nakajima: Debut
  • 2023: Karan Pratap Singh: Debut
  • 2023: Marcel Siem: 29/MC
  • 2022: Varun Parikh: MC
  • 2019: Stephen Gallacher: 29/7
  • 2018: Matt Wallace: Debut
  • 2017: SSP Chawrasia: Debut

The key aspect to focus on this week in my view is the difficulty of the course and the fact that players need to be 100% focussed and prepared for this tough test from the outset.

Some players relish a grind, whereas others don’t have the mental approach to shrug off the inevitable bogeys or worse and they can quickly spiral downwards once the first few mistakes are made. For me, focussing on those players who have proven in the past that they can grind out a score on some of golf’s tougher tests is no bad attribute, however equally those players who are comfortable with the surroundings and the hot conditions may also be at an advantage.

My Final Hero Indian Open Tips Are As Follows:

John Parry 2pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

With around 20 players priced at 40/1 or shorter, the market this week is wide open which suggests to me that those at the very top of the betting could be vulnerable. Defending champion Keita Nakajima is the worthy favourite after his runner-up finish last week in Singapore and is sure to get a lot of support, however I’m starting my team a little deeper this week with John Parry who’s having somewhat of a career resurgence at the age of 38.

Three wins in 2024 on the Challenge Tour, the first of which came in India at the Delhi Challenge last March, paved the way for automatic promotion back to the top level of European golf and the Englishman started his 2024/25 campaign in fine style, finishing runner-up at the Gary Player designed Leopard Creek in December before winning in Mauritius before the Tour broke up for the festive period. That was Parry’s first win at the upper level since his maiden success at the Vivendi Cup way back in 2010, and he’s shown enough since then to suggest there’s more to come.

21st at the Qatar Masters saw John sit 7th heading into the weekend on that tricky test and he followed that up with a runner-up finish in Kenya where he led to halfway and was ultimately unlucky to run into an inspired Jacques Kruyswijk that week. 36th last week featured progressive rounds of 72/69/68 and he returns to DLF this week looking for a big personal best. 54th and 58th here over the past 2 years have come when he’s been playing either far worse golf or at a lower level, so this year I’m expecting far better on a course that hasn’t historically favoured those with a sparkling record here in the past.

7th for Driving Accuracy last week in Singapore whilst hitting 74% of greens in regulation is a good starting point for this week’s tricky test, and season-to-date rankings of 5th for SG Tee to Green and 6th for Bogey Avoidance tie in nicely with the type of player who I think will go well this week. 33rd for 3-Putt Avoidance is also an interesting stat for this week’s task, and at 3rd in the Race To Dubai at this early stage the incentive is clear for Parry to keep his performance levels high as the season progresses.

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Jayden Trey Schaper 2pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

One player who kept appearing on my analysis this week was Jayden Schaper, so much so that he sat 2nd to the aforementioned John Parry on my final predictor model output this week, so rather than find reasons to try to oppose the South African, I’ve backed him accordingly.

The fact that the 24 year-old is still a DP World Tour maiden is probably the main reason that punters may be excused for leaving him out this week, however Keita Nakajima secured his breakthrough title at this level here last year in dominant fashion and it’s only a matter of time surely before the former Sunshine Tour rookie of the year gets over the line too.

5th at the Qatar Masters, 4th at the Kenya Open, 16th at the South African Open and 9th at the Joburg have seen Jayden’s odds shorten significantly as he’s progressed through the early part of 2025, however a narrow missed cut last week in Singapore has kept a lid on any further reductions and for me he’s a backable proposition this week here in India.

13th here on debut in 2023, Schaper quickly got to grips with the demands of this Gary Player creation, ranking 7th for SG Approach and 3rd for SG Tee to Green, and was well-fancied last year before withdrawing after the first round. His wider form on Gary Player designs is also noteworthy, having finished 2nd an 7th from five attempts at Leopard Creek and he also has another pair or top-10 finishes at each of Player’s designs at Sun City and Blair Atholl.

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Martin Couvra 1pt EW 70/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Of those around the 66-80/1 mark, Pablo Larrazabal and Marcus Armitage hold some appeal, with Pablo missing the cut last week but closing with 3 straight when I had him backed and The Bullet having recorded his second top-5 finish of 2025 in the space of five starts. At a similar price point though my preference is to back Martin Couvra who last carried my money at the Kenya Open where he finished a disappointing 53rd.

Having graduated to the DP World Tour courtesy of his Road to Mallorca ranking last year on the Challenge Tour, Couvra took to the upper level immediately, finishing 7th at the Gary Player-designed Leopard Creek. 4th in Bahrain and 5th in Qatar at the start of last month was enough to get me excited, and although his performance in Kenya and than at Durban to follow was disappointing, he bounced back with a 14th place finish last week at the weather-affected Singapore Classic where he ranked 4th for SG Approach, moving him up to 10th on that count for the season-to-date overall.

19th for SG Tee to Green is also an encouraging stat for this, as is 20th for Bogey Avoidance, and although his putting can be a little up and down, he did gain nearly 3 strokes on the greens last week in Singapore over his 3 rounds.

This will be the 21 year-old’s course debut, however a lack of experience hasn’t tended to be much of a hindrance here as per my preamble, and 5th at last year’s Delhi Challenge on the second tier would suggest he’s capable of hitting the ground running here in India this week.

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Benjamin Hebert 1pt EW 125/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Finally I’ll close with a speculative punt on Benjamin Hebert who may enjoy this kind of stringent test on course debut this week.

With 2019 and 2023 DLF winners Stephen Gallacher and Marcel Siem we have a couple of more experienced campaigners who secured an important win in the context of their careers after a barren spell, and although Hebert’s successes have all come at lower levels to date, it’s now been over 10 years since his last win on the Challenge Tour and I’m sure he feels that another trophy is long overdue.

All 6 of the 38 year-old’s wins on the second tier came between 2011 and 2014, the first and last of which came with 12-under winning totals where his nearest challenger was 4 and 5 strokes behind respectively, suggesting that he’s no stranger to performing – and mastering – trickier tests. He’s also come close on the top tier without managing to get over the line, losing in the final of the 2018 Belgian Knockout as well as falling short in a play-off on 3 separate occasions since then.

After a couple of seasons back on the Challenge Tour following a poor 2022, Hebert gained his card for 2025 courtesy of finishing 13th on the Road to Mallorca rankings and there have been enough signs since his return to the DP World Tour to suggest that he could be competitive on the right week. 36th at Leopard Creek and 22nd in Mauritius before Christmas, the Frenchman recorded top 20s in Qatar and Kenya where his putter was working very nicely before finishing 49th last week in Singapore. That was his first start for a month so he should be sharper this week as he looks to build on what’s been a positive start to his season.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:15GMT 24.3.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.