Having been in control of the Omega European Masters pretty much from the start, it was frustrating to see headline selection Matt Fitzpatrick capitulate over the final 4 holes on Sunday and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. A blistering finish from Ludvig Aberg secured the talented young Swede’s first professional victory and further strengthened his claim for a captain’s pick which duly came from Luke Donald on Monday.
On to this week we go as the DP World Tour heads to the Emerald Isle for the Irish Open which assumes its new position in the schedule ahead of next week’s flagship event at Wentworth. The K Club is this week’s venue, specifically the Palmer North course, which hosted the 2006 Ryder Cup and the 2016 Irish Open won by Rory McIlroy.
The field is strong this year, headlined by the aforementioned Rory McIlroy at 7/2 and bolstered by the likes of Tyrrell Hatton (11/1), Shane Lowry (18/1), Minwoo Lee (22/1) and Adam Scott (22/1) amongst others.
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Course Overview. The Irish Open tends to move around a bit in terms of venue and this year the Palmer Course at the Kildare Hotel and Golf Club – K Club to you and me – will host the Irish Open for the first time since 2016, well worth bearing this in mind when reviewing the event history stats this week.
The track is a 7,350 yard par 72 located in Straffan, County Kildare a few miles west of Dublin and is a parkland course designed by Arnold Palmer that opened in 1991. The course played host to the 2006 Ryder Cup where Ian Woosnam’s team smashed the Americans 18.5-9.5 in typically Irish weather conditions.
The Palmer Course was also the venue for the European Open between 1995-2003 and again in 2005 with the K Club’s other course, the links-style Smurfit Course, hosting the event in 2004, and 2006 and 2007. The most relevant result though was the 2016 Irish Open held here and won by Rory McIlroy – you can find the final leaderboard here.
Carved originally from 550 acres of beautiful Irish Countryside, the layout is a strong course for driving with water lurking on most holes, undulating fairways and long Poa-Annua greens. The course played tough in 2016 with eventual winner McIlroy the only player to reach double-digits under par, and only 4 holes on the course played under their par for the 4 days combined – 3 of which were par 5s.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well in this event, although as previously noted this week’s venue hosted the event in 2016 only: Current Form | Event Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Event Winners. 2022: Adrian Meronk, 22/1; 2021: Lucas Herbert, 33/1; 2020: John Catlin, 40/1; 2019: John Rahm, 8/1; 2018: Russell Knox, 28/1; 2017: Jon Rahm, 14/1; 2016: Rory McIlroy, 4/1; 2015: Soren Kjeldsen, 150/1; 2014: Mikko Ilonen, 80/1; 2013: Paul Casey, 50/1; 2012: Jamie Donaldson, 66/1; 2011: Simon Dyson, 25/1; 2010: Ross Fisher, 20/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
A warm and sunny Thursday and Friday will give way to more showery conditions as the weekend approaches, however it will be pleasant for playing golf overall. Winds will generally light in the 5-10mph range and temperatures will reach the mid-70s Fahrenheit in the afternoons.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the last few Irish Opens gives us some idea of that kind of skill-sets that this week’s test may demand:
2022: Adrian Meronk. 288 yards (39th), 44.6% fairways (70th), 82.0% greens in regulation (1st), 61.5% scrambling (50th), 1.65 putts per GIR (10th).
2021: Lucas Herbert. 313 yards (5th), 53.6% fairways (35th), 68.1% greens in regulation (34th), 73.9% scrambling (15th), 1.60 putts per GIR (5th).
2020: John Catlin. 279 yards (55th), 62.5% fairways (6th), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 80% scrambling (2nd), 1.78 putts per GIR (26th).
2019: Jon Rahm. 309 yards (4th), 60.7% fairways (3rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (17th), 52.6% scrambling (50th), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
2018: Russell Knox. 305 yards (18th), 53.3% fairways (19th), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 62.5% scrambling (18th), 1.73 putts per GIR (15th).
2017: Jon Rahm. 302 yards (8th), 51.8% fairways (36th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 46.2% scrambling (56th), 1.61 putts per GIR (3rd).
2016: Rory McIlroy. 293 yards (9th), 60.7% fairways (23rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 58.3% scrambling (21st), 1.87 putts per GIR (52nd).
2015: Soren Kjeldsen. 280 yards (28th), 67.9% fairways (5th), 62.5% greens in regulation (18th), 66.7% scrambling (5th), 1.82 putts per GIR (19th).
2014: Mikko Ilonen. 291 yards (31st), 51.9% fairways (31st), 73.6% greens in regulation (27th), 78.9% scrambling (1st), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th).
2013: Paul Casey. 287 yards (18th), 44.6% fairways (41st), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 68.4% scrambling (10th), 1.68 putts per GIR (4th).
2012: Jamie Donaldson. 289 yards (8th), 58.9% fairways (35th), 62.5% greens in regulation (64th), 63.0% scrambling (5th), 1.51 putts per GIR (1st).
A variety of different courses used may explain the disparity between stats in the results above and, depending on the course and conditions being played on any given year, either high GIR or a strong short game has been the winning formula in general.
Looking at 2016 in particular for Rory McIlroy’s win here at the K Club, the Northern Irishman led the field for GIR and drove & scrambled adequately which allowed him to get away with a relatively poor week on the greens. One of the runners-up, Russell Knox, was similar in that he ranked 4th for GIR, whereas the other runner-up, Bradley Dredge, excelled on and around the greens. Rory aside, length off the tee wasn’t the be-all and end-all, and overall the course presented a good all-round test that gave players of different styles a chance.
Incoming Form: There are positives to pick out of the recent form of our past 11 Irish Open champions and none arrived in what you’d class as poor form.
All 11 had recorded a top-20 finish in their previous 7 outings, with four of our last five winners – Adrian Meronk, John Catlin, Jon Rahm and Russell Knox – each having finished in the top three in one of their previous two starts.
A similar trend continues with Dyson (2011) and Fisher (2010), broken eventually by the shock win from Shane Lowry as an amateur back in 2009:
2022, Adrian Meronk: 61/28/3/3/MC/6/3/MC
2021, Lucas Herbert: MC/70/46/MC/MC/71/18/19
2020, John Catlin: 8/43/51/6/MC/25/1/8
2019, Jon Rahm: 12/6/24/9/MC/MC/3/2
2018, Russell Knox: MC/MC/16/20/44/12/38/2
2017, Jon Rahm: 10/27/4/72/2/MC/MC/10
2016, Rory McIlroy: 20/MC/3/27/4/10/4/12
2015, Soren Kjeldsen: MC/45/MC/14/MC/31/9/18
2014, Mikko Ilonen: 5/33/37/MC/8/MC/38/32
2013, Paul Casey: MC/16/MC/8/MC/51/45/53
2012, Jamie Donaldson: 51/3/63/44/15/53/WD/22
Event Form: Despite the fact that the venue and style of course used for the Irish Open varies from year to year, it’s interesting to note that prior to Jon Rahm’s debut win in 2017, the previous 5 winners had all recorded at least one top-13 finish in the event prior to winning. Russell Knox continued that trend in 2018 before Rahm tasted victory for a second time in this event the year after.
Again the same can be said about Simon Dyson and Ross Fisher in their respective victories, with the trend once again falling down with Shane Lowry’s success at Baltray.
John Catlin’s win at Galgorm Castle in 2020, which was a new course to many of the field, was on his Irish Open debut; Lucas Herbert, on the other hand, had finished 7th in Catlin’s victory before winning at Mount Juliet in 2021. Last year’s winner Adrian Meronk also had an Irish Open top 10 to his name, so dismissing older form at other venues may be a bad move:
The K Club’s parkland setup renders a lot of the more recent links Irish Open results as interesting fact rather than useful research, however with plenty of comparable courses and results across Great Britain and Ireland to study, there are still some good pointers out there for this week.
My final Irish Open tips are as follows:
Billy Horschel 2pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Having Rory McIlroy in this week’s field – and any regular DP World Tour event for that matter – means we have to tread a little carefully as punters. Let’s make no bones about it, Rory could undoubtedly clean up here this week which means that it’s place money only if we’re going to oppose him – and given that he won this event the last time it was hosted here at the K Club, there’s every reason to suspect he’ll be heavily involved.
Yet there’s enough reason to argue that he might not have it all his own way. Aside from that win here, his 6 Irish Open starts before and after that read MC/MC/MC/MC/28/59. There are a couple of more distant top-10s to balance that argument a little, however my summary would be that there’s no reason to suggest he’s unbeatable on the island of Ireland.
There’ll undoubtedly be massive focus on the Ryder Cup this week from a media perspective and whilst that’s unlikely to faze an experience campaigner such as Rory, he could be excused for letting his thoughts drift towards Rome every now and then. Then of course there’s the back injury he sustained before the start of the Tour Championship on his last start. He was swinging with increasing freedom towards the end of that event, however I’d prefer not to have question marks if I were contemplating backing a 4/1 shot.
In truth, few of the next rung of players in the betting really interest me for this week. Tyrrell Hatton hasn’t overly excited me of late, neither has Shane Lowry who comes into this week off form of MC/51/MC. One who does interest me though given he has no distractions and has been playing some tidy stuff on the PGA Tour is Billy Horschel.
2022 saw the 36 year-old win his 7th PGA Tour title at the Memorial Tournament, dominating the event on a challenging course to win by 4 strokes at 13-under, a similar winning total to 3 other of his victories and in line with Rory McIlroy’s success here at the K Club in 2016.
2023 saw the Florida native struggle though, so much so that he openly talked about how his state of game was affecting him emotionally and that honesty and self-reflection appeared to do him the world of good. 13th at the 3M Open was positive as July drew to a close and 4th last time out at the Wyndham Championship was by far his best result since his Memorial triumph.
Not making the PGA Tour Playoffs has afforded Billy some time off to regroup and refocus, allowing him to arrive this side of the Atlantic early and acclimatise early for this week and next while getting chance to watch his beloved West Ham. Perhaps the Hammers’ positive start to the season will act as a shot in the arm to Billy while this side of the pond.
This will be Horschel’s Irish Open debut, however form in England at the BMW PGA Championship of 4/1/9 is encouraging in terms of agronomy and with sparse course form available for the entire field here at the K Club, any disadvantage in that respect will be minimised. RESULT: T45
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Matt Wallace 1.5pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
An eye-catcher statistically over the past couple of weeks has been Matt Wallace.
Long and straight works around these parts as Rory McIlroy proved 7 years ago when ranking 8th for Total Driving on his way to victory, and it’s on that same metric that Wallace has impressed of late. With 3 of the 4 easiest holes here at the K Club being the par 5s, being far enough down the fairway to give yourself a chance of birdie or better on those holes is certainly one viable way of compiling a competitive score here.
2nd overall at the Czech Masters saw Matt rank 4th for Total Driving, backed up by 4th for GIR and 1st for Scrambling. Last week at Crans-sur-Sierre was similar with 315 yard average drives combined with 71.2% of fairways hit equalling 6th for Total Driving. When Matt’s driving the ball well he’s a danger anywhere and his first look at the K Club could well be a positive one.
Wallace’s wider form in Ireland and Northern Ireland is nothing to write home about, however a testing parkland track suits and this year’s switch to the K Club should play to his strengths as he looks to build on a successful year which has already seen him make his Stateside breakthrough at the Corales Puntecana Championship. RESULT: T61
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Thorbjorn Olesen 1pt EW 66/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet
One of the numbers that peaked my interest from last week’s Omega European Masters was that of Thorbjorn Olesen topping Greens in Regulation and that makes him an interesting contender here this week.
Despite a blistering start to 2023 which saw the Dane record top-6 finishes at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, Indian Open and Soudal Open, as well as a win in Thailand, Olesen dropped away from the Ryder Cup conversation with a stop-start summer that saw nothing better than a 15th place finish at The Belfry and missed cuts at the two Majors he qualified for, the PGA Championship and The Open.
The enforced break on the DP World Tour may have done him some good though as he’s come back in positive fashion, finishing 11th at the Czech Masters where he ranked 8th for SG Putting before flashing that form with his irons last week, despite finishing down the field in 40th place.
7 times a winner now at DP World Tour level, Thorbjorn has an impressive record in the Republic of Ireland over the years at all levels, reading 23/15/10/6/15/MC/ with the 10th place finish wedged in the middle of that string of results coming here at the K Club back in 2016, courtesy of an impressive final round 66. RESULT: T45
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Eddie Pepperell 1pt EW 80/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Whisper it quietly but Eddie Pepperell is playing some nice stuff once again and deserves to be supported at the price on offer.
A stuttering 2023 saw the Englishman record positive efforts at the Italian Open (9th) and Volvo Mixed (12th) alongside a string of missed cuts, however it’s evident that his game has taken a step forward over the past month. 3rd at Galgorm Castle north of the Irish border on another challenging parkland track is a good pointer for this and the 32 year-old followed that up with an 8th place finish last week in the Swiss Alps, opening with a 63 and sticking on and around the first page of the leaderboard all week.
That recent top-3 finish ties in nicely with the recent winners of the Irish Open that I detailed in the preamble and Eddie backs that up with 3 top-8 finishes in this event from 8 starts to suggest that he’s more than comfortable in this part of the world.
A play-off defeat in 2015 at Royal County Down is Pepperell’s best finish at an Irish Open, however 8th here at the K Club behind Rory McIlroy in 2016 is undoubtedly more relevant to this week’s task and save for a 3rd round 76 that year he could have pushed the former World No.1 very close that year.
8th, 4th and 5th for SG Approach over his past 3 starts is exactly what we want to see from Eddie ahead of a contending performance in a strong field, and he backed that up with 5th for SG Tee to Green at Crans last week to suggest that he’s ready to challenge this week. RESULT: MC
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Guido Migliozzi 1pt EW 125/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet
Finally, the dynamics of a post-captain’s picks tournament where a number of those who were on the fringes of the discussion at some point over the qualification period is fascinating, and to see someone of the ilk of Guido Migliozzi make a belated statement wouldn’t surprise me.
As nice as it may have been to have included an Italian in the squad to face the Americans, in truth Guido was the only real hope and his form tailed off after a strong start to the Ryder Cup campaign when he won last year’s Open de France with a sizzling final round of 62.
6 consecutive cuts made in his last 6 outings was too little, too late and the 26 year-old will have to console himself with watching from the sidelines this time around, however that burst of improved form does make him interesting on this week’s challenging course.
10th at the BMW International Open and 13th last week at Crans were the highlights in that most recent spell of results, however we need to dig into some of his other efforts too as there’s a little more than meets the eye.
The 3-time Tour winner held a share of the lead heading into the final day at The Belfry in July, eventually slumping to 28th after a closing round of 77. 64th at The Open also offered a little more promise as Guido sat 11th heading into the weekend. And last week’s effort at Crans contained topsy-turvy rounds of 72/61/71/63 to suggest that there’s some top form bubbling just under the surface right now.
2 Irish Open starts have resulted in 2 missed cuts, however this year’s change in venue makes much of the event history immaterial and I’m happy to support the Italian here. RESULT: T16
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