Congratulations if you were on-board Viktor Hovland at first show Monday best prices of 50/1. That price highlights how badly Viktor had been playing in the build-up to the Valspar – a price that drifted further when the Norwegian was placed in the wrong side of the draw come Tuesday evening (UK time). It was the 6th European win on the PGA Tour in the first 12 weeks of 2025.
In a Golf Betting System Podcast coup, it was more than pleasing for each of us on the pod to land a full each-way payout on Davis Riley – I was on at 175/1 with bet365 8 places each-way via their Each Way Extra facility. He was undoubtedly the golf betting community bet of the week, so hopefully you were on board as well.
With less than 3 weeks to go now until The Masters, the PGA Tour moves from the SunshineState to the LoneStarState. This week we have the Texas Children’s Houston Open. 4 years ago this event was the curtain-raiser for The Masters in November and was played for the first time at Memorial Park Golf Course. Now reinstated from the autumn to its traditional spring schedule spot, Tournament organisers the Astros Foundation, led by Astros owner Jim Crane, work hard to generate a quality field. 2025 sees Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Wyndham Clark, Maverick McNealy, Sahith Theegala, Sungjae Im, Aaron Rai, J.J. Spaun, Thomas Detry, Nick Taylor, Tony Finau plus defending champion Stephan Jaeger in the field.
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Course Guide: The Houston Open from 2003 through 2019 was played at Golf Club of Houston (formerly Redstone GC), on a Par 72 course which featured many Florida set-up traits. Winners there included Fred Couples, Vijay Singh (x2), Adam Scott, Paul Casey, Anthony Kim, Phil Mickelson, J.B. Holmes, Russell Henley and Ian Poulter, traditionally the week before The Masters. 2020 saw a move to Memorial Park Golf Course, which had received a $19 million renovation funded by Astros owner Jim Crane via the tournament-organising Astros Foundation. The course crafted by Tom Doak is not your standard PGA Tour affair, proving difficult to tame.
Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston, Texas : Designer: John Bredemus 1935, with Tom Doak renovation 2019; Course Type: Technical, Long; Par: 70; Length: 7,475 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 4; Number of Sand Bunkers: 23; Acres of Fairway: 28; Fairways: 419 Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass; Rough: 419 Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass 1.25″; Greens: 7,000 sq.ft average featuring MiniVerde Bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimpmeter 12-12.5ft.
Course Scoring Average & PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2024: 70.25 (+0.25), Rank 12 of 51 courses.
2022: 70.56 (+0.56), Rank 11 of 49 courses.
2021: 70.80 (+0.80), Rank 9 of 50 courses.
2020: 71.03 (+1.03), Rank 8 of 51 courses.
Memorial Park Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Memorial Park and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Memorial Park: 30 – 40 yards at 300 yards.
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Overview: First thing to point out is that Memorial Park Golf Course is a municipal golf course which caters for 60,000 rounds per year. Previously a John Bredemus 1935 design, Tom Doak was brought in by tournament sponsor Jim Crane to completely renovate Memorial Park so that it can host both the Houston Open each year and then cater for the amateur player for the other 51 weeks of the year. Doak, with some help from player consultant Brooks Koepka, delivered a +7,400 yard design in just 10 months.
The routing of the course in general is the same as the old course, but Doak has added far more movement in both the fairways and especially around the greens. And his brief was to make Memorial Park an exciting venue for both PGA Tour and leisure golfers alike.
At a freshly extended 7,475 yards – 40 yards added to the par-5 16th hole with a new professional tee – for a Par 70, the course is long and stretching in length. It’s a pretty quirky set-up, as the course features 5 par-3s and 3 par-5s in total. 2 par-5s are on the front 9, with a driveable par-4 (the 13th) on the back side with a further, freshly extended par-5.
Off the tee, Doak designs tend to feature very generous fairways, and although these are tree-lined, those trees tend to be well back. Rough is pretty penal, although that wasn’t the main defence of this course.
As part of Tom Doak’s brief, the course only features 21 bunkers, on the basis that they are easy for Tour pros but difficult for amateurs. Instead there are lots of tight grass slopes, contours and green complex surround slopes which repel approach shots, then requiring a tight lie to an elevated green recovery shot. Pretty perfect for some pre-Masters prep.
The tough, contoured green complexes and associated run-offs and the sheer length of the Par 70 set-up created relative mayhem here in both 2020 and 2021, with Memorial Park playing within the 6 toughest non-Major courses. That eased but only slightly in 2022 where thunderstorms on Friday afternoon softened the course. 2024 saw shorter rough and high winds across 54 holes, making for a higher winning score.
In March Memorial Park features overseed which will provide a much tighter playing surface than the Bermudagrass did in the autumn. This undoubtedly highlights the penal green surrounds, while shorter, less intense rough as per the PGA Tour way these days gives more opportunity for aggressive approach shots to the green.
And finally the green surfaces themselves, which at an average 7.000 sq.ft are large and feature MiniVerde UltraDwarf Bermudagrass green complexes, which in March will feature Poa Trivialis overseed. Other current PGA Tour stop-offs with MiniVerde include TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic of New Orleans – with Poa Trivialis) and East Lake (Tour Championship), plus the old Houston Open host course at the GC of Houston, also featured them – although they were Bentgrass overseeded in its April guise.
Houston Open Winners: Hosted at Memorial Park: 2024: Stephan Jaeger (-12); 2022: Tony Finau (-16); 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10); 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13); Hosted at Golf Club of Houston: 2019: Lanto Griffin (-14); 2018: Ian Poulter (-19); 2017: Russell Henley (-20); 2016: Jim Herman (-15); 2015: J.B. Holmes (-16); 2014: Matt Jones (-15); 2013: D.A. Points (-16); 2012: Hunter Mahan (-16); 2011: Phil Mickelson (-20); 2010: Anthony Kim (-12).
2024: Stephan Jaeger 69-66-66-67 -12/268
2022: Tony Finau 65-62-68-69 -16/264
2021: Jason Kokrak 68-71-66-65 -10/270
2020: Carlos Ortiz 67-68-67-65 -13/267
OWGR of Houston Open Winners at Memorial Park: 2024: Jaeger 71; 2023: Finau 15; 2021: Kokrak 29; 2020: Ortiz 160.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the Houston Open winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament since 2020:
Ian Poulter: QF WMP/41st Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/MC PGA National.
Russell Henley: 45th Bay Hill/9th Copperhead/43rd PGA National/16th TPC Scottsdale.
Jim Herman: 63rd Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/MC PGA National/17th Pebble/MC TPC Scottsdale.
J.B. Holmes: MC Bay Hill/2nd Doral/22nd Riviera/10th Pebble/2nd Torrey Pines.
Matt Jones: 14th Bay Hill/MC Puerto Rico/MC PGA National/59th Riviera/45th Pebble.
D.A. Points: MC Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/MC Puerto Rico/68th PGA National.
Hunter Mahan: 42nd Bay Hill/24th Doral/1st WMP/24th Riviera/13th Pebble.
Phil Mickelson: 24th Bay Hill/55th Doral/17th WMP/35th Riviera/9th Pebble.
Anthony Kim: 22nd Doral/2nd PGA National/24th TPC Scottsdale/52nd Riviera.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Aldrich Potgieter; 3) Scottie Scheffler; 4) Min Woo Lee; 5) Jacob Bridgeman; 6) Steven Fisk; 7) Aaron Rai; 8) Nicolai Hojgaard; 9) Alex Smalley; 10) Jake Knapp.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Memorial Park Houston Winners & Prices: 2024: Jaeger 50/1; 2022: Finau 22/1; 2021: Kokrak 50/1; 2020: Ortiz 160/1. Average: 71/1.
Historical Weather:
2024: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 75. Wind ESE 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 77. Wind SSE 14-18 mph, with gusts to 27 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 79. Wind SSE 12-16 mph, with gusts to 22 mph. Sunday: Cloudy and breezy. High of 81. Wind S 14-18 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.
2022: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 84. Friday: Cloudy. High of 82. Wind SW 8-15 mph. Due to inclement weather, the second round was suspended for the day at
3:26 p.m. Saturday. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 60. Wind N 15-25 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 59. Wind E 8-15 mph.
2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind NW 8-16 mph. Due to inclement weather, the start to the first round was delayed 2 hours, 30 minutes and began at 9:10 a.m. CT. The first round was suspended due to darkness at 5:36 p.m. and resumed at 6:59 a.m. Friday. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind NW 8-16 mph. Due to darkness, the second round was suspended for the day at 5:35 p.m. Saturday: Sunny. High of 69. Wind N 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind SSW 6-12 mph.
2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 80. Wind ENE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 81. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind ESE 6-12 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Houston, Texas is here.
Texas golf is synonymous with windy conditions. This week in downtown Houston looks pretty standard with +20mph gusts, all from southerly directions. The leaders on Saturday may catch a break with slightly lower winds up to 15mph as per the current forecast.
March has been dry with only 14mm (0.5 inch) of precipitation. However rain on tournament Monday looks imminent, but more impactful could be rain on Thursday afternoon / evening (70% chance), which then runs over night into Friday’s play. That rain (75% chance) includes electrical activity on Friday afternoon, so expect rain delays on Friday.
So on the weekend I’d expect a softer course than we have been accustomed to here, especially with the Poa Trivialis overseed. Temperature-wise it’s a tail of two halves with 21 degrees Celsius – 70 Fahrenheit – across Thursday/Friday becoming a hot 29-31 degrees – 84-88 Fahrenheit once the wet weather front disappears on Friday evening.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am / Bahrain Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Rico Hoey; 2) Rory McIlroy; 3) Keith Mitchell; 4) Taylor Pendrith / Isaiah Salinda; 6) Scottie Scheffler / Davis Thompson; 8) Luke List; 9) Aldrich Potgieter / Sam Stevens; 11) Aaron Rai; 12) Tony Finau / Harry Higgs; 14) Alex Smalley; 15) Joel Dahmen; 16) Ryo Hisatsune; 17) Sungjae Im / Kevin Yu; 19) Ryan Gerard / Si Woo Kim / Max McGreevy; 22) Steven Fisk / Taylor Moore; 24) Jason Day / Harris English.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Jimmy Walker; 2) J.J. Spaun; 3) Henrik Norlander; 4) Scottie Scheffler; 5) Rory McIlroy / John Pak; 7) Danny Walker / Kevin Yu; 9) Aaron Rai; 10) Taylor Pendrith; 11) Jason Day / Joe Highsmith; 13) Si Woo Kim; 14) Nick Taylor; 15) Michael Kim; 16) Nick Dunlap; 17) Stephan Jaeger; 18) Ryan Gerard / Harris English / Nicolai Hojgaard; 21) Jake Knapp; 22) Hayden Buckley / Charley Hoffman; 24) Gary Woodland; 25) Ben Griffin / Jackson Suber.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Paul Peterson; 2) Aaron Baddeley; 3) Danny Willett; 4) Michael Kim; 5) Noah Goodwin; 6) Mac Meissner, 7) Harry Hall; 8) Mason Andersen / Min Woo Lee; 10) Si Woo Kim; 11) Wyndham Clark / Andrew Novak / Braden Thornberry; 14) C.T. Pan; 15) Stephan Jaeger / Matt Wallace; 17) Jason Day / Beau Hossler; 19) Rory McIlroy / Seamus Power; 21) Matteo Manassero / Alejandro Tosti; 23) Will Chandler / Davis Thompson; 25) Ricky Castillo.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Si Woo Kim; 4) Michael Kim; 5) Rico Hoey; 6) John Pak/ Aaron Rai; 8) Davis Thompson; 9) Danny Walker / Kevin Yu; 11) Nick Taylor; 12) Ricky Castillo / Jason Day / Isaiah Salinda / J.J. Spaun; 16) Stephan Jaeger; 17) Wyndham Clark / Taylor Pendrith; 19) Steven Fisk / Joe Highsmith / Min Woo Lee; 22) Joel Dahmen / Harris English / Jimmy Walker; 25) Ryan Gerard / Keith Mitchell.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Nicolas Echavarria; 2) Rory McIlroy; 3) Sam Ryder; 4) Jason Day; 5) Taylor Montgomery; 6) William Mouw; 7) Min Woo Lee; 8) Jeremy Paul; 9) Kaito Onishi; 10) Joe Highsmith / Stephan Jaeger / Aaron Rai / Danny Willett; 14) Jake Knapp; 15) J.J. Spaun / Vince Whaley; 17) Harry Hall; 18) Justin Lower; 19) Thomas Detry / Harris English; 21) Ryan Gerard / Scottie Scheffler / Sami Valimaki; 24) Lee Hodges; 25) Taylor Moore / Patrick Rodgers / Brandt Snedeker / Sahith Theegala.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Michael Kim; 4) Aaron Rai; 5) Si Woo Kim; 6) Jason Day; 7) Min Woo Lee; 8) Jeremy Paul; 9) Jacob Bridgeman / Joe Highsmith; 11) Noah Goodwin / Stephan Jaeger / Taylor Moore 14) Sam Ryder / Alex Smalley / J.J. Spaun; 17) Max McGreevy; 18) Nick Taylor; 19) Wyndham Clark / Jake Knapp; 21) Ben Griffin; 22) Steven Fisk / Taylor Pendrith / Davis Thompson / Danny Walker.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Houston Open winners at Memorial Park gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2024, Stephan Jaeger (-12). SG Off the Tee: 38th, SG Approach: 37th, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 18th, SG Putting: 3rd.
2022, Tony Finau (-16). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 29th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 2nd.
2021, Jason Kokrak (-10). SG Off the Tee: 14th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 67th, SG Tee to Green: 17th, SG Putting: 3rd.
2020, Carlos Ortiz (-13). SG Off the Tee: 31st, SG Approach: 14th, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 5th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 21st, SG Approach: 16th, SG Around the Green: 27th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 3rd.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Houston Open winners at Memorial Park gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this long, Carolina-type golf course:
2024, Stephan Jaeger (-12). 320 yards (12th), 55.8% fairways (32nd), 68.1% greens in regulation (24th), 73.9 % scrambling (12th), 1.69 putts per GIR (9th).
2022, Tony Finau (-16). 302 yards (21st), 75.0% fairways (1st), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 68.8 % scrambling (17th), 1.64 putts per GIR (2nd).
2021, Jason Kokrak (-10). 302 yards (12th), 61.5% fairways (25th), 75.0% greens in regulation (3rd), 44.4 % scrambling (62nd), 1.59 putts per GIR (1st).
2020, Carlos Ortiz (-13). 312 yards (16th), 50.0% fairways (51st), 70.8% greens in regulation (8th), 85.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.78 putts per GIR (36th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 15th, Driving Accuracy: 27th, Greens in Regulation: 9th, Scrambling: 23rd, Putting Average 12th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how Memorial Park sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Stephan Jaeger (2024): “Yeah, I had a really nice drive on No. 3, we had like downwind and I went after one and I hit 7-iron on a par-5, which was awesome. It was kind of a simple birdie, kind of kept the round going. I birdied 2 and 3 after bogeying 1, which kind of felt like a par. I mean, I think Carson hit driver, 3-wood and I hit driver, 3-wood on a par-4, which doesn’t really happen that often. Yeah, it’s one of those golf courses, like it doesn’t have a lot of defence except for the length and some of the pin placements so I’m super happy with my round.
Yeah, I think this golf course, it does give you a lot of room off the tee on some spots and you can hit some bad drives and still have a perfectly fine lie or whatever. There are some holes that you have to step up and hit a good tee shot to be able to hit on the green, especially with the wind being up this week. And second shots, I mean, you hit it in the wrong spot here you’re making five or bogey at least. That’s a big one, you’ve got to miss in the right spots. Off the tee is obviously a little lenient but there’s still trees, you could still kind of get stymied behind a tree. I wouldn’t rely on hitting it all over the place on the weekend, I think a little straighter would probably serve us well.”
Tony Finau (2022): “Yeah, I think I was patient with myself. I knew the golf course, it’s a tough golf course to play. You have to drive it in the fairway and your work’s not done, it’s hard to hit the greens. You know if you miss the green, it’s hard to get up and down, so I was just patient with myself. I made a couple bombs, I think that kind of opened it up. On No. 2 I made about a 60-footer for birdie and then I had 3 downwind, I think 3’s probably the one hole you can have an opportunity to score. So I think those back-to-back birdies just kind of set me off and on my way on the back nine.
Yeah, I just knew the conditions were going to be tough. You never know what the day’s going to bring. You just try and do your best to hit a shot, one shot at a time. It’s very cliché for guys that are playing well, but it truly is that way. I will say I think it’s easier to play one shot at a time when it’s so tough. You know, the conditions, the wind’s blowing, you really have to focus and hone in on every shot, every putt, so I think I did a good job of that today.
Yeah, I’ve always looked at myself as a good ball-striker and I have no problem hitting the ball low. Those are things that are very good when I play in this Texas wind. I definitely, you know, I don’t mind that the wind is blowing.”
Scottie Scheffler (2021): “I started hitting some fairways. Yesterday I was playing out of the rough most of the time, so it was just nice getting the ball out there in play, give myself some opportunities. This golf course can be pretty challenging from the Bermuda rough and you’ve got to hit the ball in play. If you’re hitting it in the rough to elevated greens that you can’t hold just because you’re hitting knucklers out of the rough, so it was very important to get the ball in the fairway.”
Jason Kokrak (2021): “Believe it or not, Colonial’s not a great golf course for me and this is kind of the quintessential golf course for me; long, got to hit a lot of fairways, got to hit the ball high to keep it in some spots on these greens. Outside of the really bad eight, nine holes that I played, I played this golf course pretty outstanding.
Matthew Wolff (2021): “Yeah, it definitely seems like a bomber’s golf course. There’s not too much trouble off the tee. I think 16 is really the only, it’s a par-5, but 16’s really the only hole that you can really have a penalty shot off the tee in my opinion. You can definitely get it into the trees and into the rough and that’s what makes this course hard and that’s its defence. But at the end of the day, I think it’s going to set up really well for me. I’ll be able to hit driver a lot, get to cover a couple things that some people might not be able to.”
Carlos Ortiz (2020): “I think the golf course, it’s really easy to get out of position and when you’re there, you have to think two steps ahead, try to put it where worst you’re going to have a good look for par instead of trying to push it, because once you push it with these greens. I don’t know if you guys have seen them, but they’re pretty undulated and they all fall off, so if you start pushing it, it’s easy to hit it or go over or to the side and you’re going to have a hard time putting it again on the green. I think I’ve taken my medicine especially today, and I honestly didn’t hit that many fairways and I still was able to save some good pars thinking that way.”
Jason Day (2020):”Yeah, definitely the back, I feel like the back side’s a little bit tougher. Obviously scoring opportunities, you get two par 5s on the front, a couple shorter holes on the front as well, but if you can try and get yourself at least 1, 2 or 3 under par going through the front side, you can kind of snag maybe one or two and you end up having a pretty decent round. This is very difficult around the greens with that bermudagrass, and the runoffs, they’re very, very inconsistent in regards to bouncing up the slopes. So if you can leave yourself in some decent locations around the greens, you can have a good opportunity at getting up and down pretty easy or you can leave yourself pretty frustrated at the end of the day.”
Brandt Snedeker (2020): “There’s quite a few of them really. You start putting your finger on a few of them. The par-3 15th is going to be really tough by the end of the week. We played it up today, but it’s just a diabolical green so you have to pay attention to that one. No. 13’s another diabolical green, depending on the pin position it can be really tough. Then you have the long holes here, 1’s a long, tough par 4. I think you can just go about every par 4 and they’re all about over 500 yards if they want to be. The Tour did a good job mixing it up today, moved some tees around so didn’t play the full length, which gave us some scoring opportunities. I don’t anticipate that being the case the rest of the week.”
Adam Scott (2020): “Yeah. I mean, just generally the course is relentless. It’s just demanding off the tee. It requires something long and straight, and then you must hit the green in the right spot, too, especially the 9th hole. Dustin’s ball was on the green for a good 10 seconds today and ended up in the water, so you have to be very precise on some of them. The challenge is all around the greens, the course is still kind of growing in and that’s making it very difficult from down in the low areas around the greens. You know, you just have to get a little bit creative this week and somehow get it up on the green and try and save your par.”
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
11 – Rory McIlroy.
9 – Scottie Scheffler.
4 – Jason Day, Zach Johnson, Si Woo Kim, Ryan Palmer, Camilo Villegas.
3 – Brandt Snedeker, Nick Taylor.
2 – Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Mackenzie Hughes, Peter Malnati, Jimmy Walker.
1 – Aaron Baddeley, Rafael Campos, Wyndham Clark, Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Tony Finau, Chris Gotterup, Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, Nick Hardy, Padraig Harrington, Joe Highsmith, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Kurt Kitayama, Patton Kizzire, Luke List, Maverick McNealy, Keith Mitchell, Francesco Molinari, Taylor Moore, C.T. Pan, Seamus Power, Aaron Rai, Davis Riley, J.J. Spaun, Adam Svensson, Jhonattan Vegas, Gary Woodland, Kevin Yu.
Points of note: other current PGA Tour stop-offs with MiniVerde Bermudagrass greens include TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic of New Orleans) and East Lake (Tour Championship). The old Houston Open host course, namely the GC of Houston (Redstone GC as was), also featured them – although they were overseeded in its April guise. TPC Sawgrass, home of the Players Championship, featured MiniVerde Bermudagrass prior to 2017, as did Quail Hollow at the 2014 through 2016 events.
2020 saw Memorial Park play firm and fast for the opening 54 holes. A rarity on the PGA Tour! 2021 was slightly different with a storm in the early hours of Thursday depositing 25mm. However Memorial Park still put up a stern defence with greens that were fast on Saturday and extremely lively on Sunday, despite mud-balls on the fairways. 2022 was a similar story as thunderstorms brought rain on Friday afternoon, suspending play for the day. Saturday saw winds of 25mph, but scores of 64 and 65 were available across the weekend.
2024 saw the infamous Texas wind in play with Friday plus Saturday seeing gusting 27mph south-easterly and Sunday 25 mph southerly winds across the final 54 holes. That translated to Memorial Park playing a quarter of a stroke over par across the tournament – ranking the 12th most difficult course on Tour across the year.
Until this point -13/267, -10/270, -16/264 and -12/268 totals have won, so this tournament has not been your standard birdie-fest.
In a PGA Tour 2025 season where 6 Europeans have won the opening 12 tournaments, backing Aaron Rai to sneak under the noses of World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler and World Number 2 Rory McIlroy and take out the Houston Open makes a strong level of sense to me.
At Memorial Park where the past 4 champions have gained 6.12, 8.68, 7.93 and 6.40 with the putter, backing Scottie Scheffler doesn’t make the greatest of sense to me. I was on him last year at 3/1 (makes the 7/2 on offer look skinny) with no Rory McIlroy in the field and even prime Scheffler, who had just won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players before going on to win The Masters, could not win here at Memorial Park – a course where you have to make significant distance of putts with regularity plus nail everything from within 8 feet to win. Rory McIlroy shouts a little bit of value at 15/2 in a world where he has won 2 of his last 4 PGA Tour tournaments – his best ever start to a PGA Tour season. Whether even he has the audacity to win the outing before The Masters remains to be seen – but you have to expect Rory coming on strong on Sunday.
That leaves me with Aaron Rai. 19th(2021). 7th (2022) and 7th (2024) here at Memorial Park, he actually won last year’s Wyndham Championship gaining 2.56 Strokes Putting on a Sedgefield Country Club track where historically circa 50% of winning totals were made with a hot putter (exactly the same scenario as here). Ranking in the top 10 across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers in this field for Strokes Gained Putting, it’s worthy of note that the Wolverhampton man, who is now based in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, has gained 3.71 and 4.48 strokes with the putter on these exact Memorial Park greens across his past 2 visits.
Whilst bombers perform rather well here, as we saw at VidantaWorld a few weeks ago where the shortest player in the field Brian Campbell ultimately defeated the longest Aldrich Potgieter in a Mexico Open play off on a ‘bomber friendly test’, in Rai I can see a shorter player with the Kryptonite to ball-strike and putt his way to victory here this week.
In the top 11 for Off the Tee, Approach, Tee to Green and Putting across my 8-week tournament analysis, he also ranks in the top 4 for Strokes Gained Current Form behind the top 2 in the world and one Michael Kim. Plus the reality is if Rai wants to make Luke Donald’s Team Europe Ryder Cup squad, he will need to take out one of these second division Tour tournaments this season, as Viktor Hovland did last week.
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Taylor Moore 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
I’ll back Taylor Moore for a second consecutive week. Many will remember Moore winning his maiden PGA Tour title at the Valspar Championship in 2023 at a very similar price. A talented sort who as a result of his Copperhead victory played at Augusta National and finished a creditable 39th on course debut, which he backed up with 20th last year, Taylor would love to go back to The Masters for a third consecutive year.
33rd at The Players ranking 17th for Approach, and 22nd for Tee to Green prior to last week’s Missed Cut at Copperhead, I feel Moore is building momentum for a contending performance. Long off the tee with a high ball flight, Memorial Park should theoretically suit the Dallas resident, who was born in San Angelo, Texas. Interesting therefore that he finished T2 here 12 months ago, when we were on board at 70/1.
46th for Driving Distance All Drives and 48th for Greens in Regulation so far on Tour in 2025, Moore can be a lights-out putter at his best, with 3 of his 8 biggest putting weeks coming on Bermudagrass or Bermudagrass/Poa Trivialis greens at Harbour Town, Sedgefield and here last year at Memorial Park.
His liking for these exact putting surfaces can also be extended to the Zurich Classic of New Orleans team event, where Moore has partnered Matthew NeSmith to 4th place finishes in 2022 and 2023. TPC Louisiana features similar MiniVerde Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis putting surfaces.
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Jake Knapp will always be a friend to podcast colleagues Barry O’Hanrahan and Paul Williams from the Golf Betting System Podcast. His win at VidantaWorld last year was at 50/1 and that form alone works nicely from a correlating course perspective for this. 2022 Houston champion Tony Finau has won (2023) and finished 2nd (2022) at the Mexico Open. Meanwhile defending champion Stephan Jaeger has finished 3rd (2024) and 6th (2025) on the wide open Norman Signature Course set-up.
Torrey Pines isn’t a bad shout either. Finau’s record there kind of defines the man I nicknamed Tony “T5” Finau where he’s racked-up 4th (2017), 6th (2018), 6th (2020), 2nd (2021), 9th (2023), 6th (2024) and 5th (2025) finishes. Average those results through and you’ll get 5th! Stephan Jaeger finished 3rd at Torrey Pines prior to winning this a couple of months later. Jake Knapp finished tied 3rd with Jaeger before taking out the Mexico Open within a few weeks.
2025 for Jake has been excellent so far. 17th at the Signature level Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines fits, as does 25th when defending his Mexico Open title at VidantaWorld. An opening 59 at PGA National was historic and Jake will feel that was one that got away, ultimately finishing 6th, whilst he also finished a creditable 12th at TPC Sawgrass – a course that doesn’t overly shout Jake Knapp (nor does Copperhead last week where he missed the cut). He putted amazingly well on the Stadium Course’s Bermuda/Poa Trivialis greens with both PGA National and Sawgrass also featuring overseeded fairways and rough that we will see here this week.
Knapp has course experience – he missed the cut here 12 months ago, when on his last appearance before playing The Masters I expect his mind was already in Georgia – and I also like another piece of Texas form from 2024. Jake shot 64-64-67 over the opening 54 holes at TPC Craig Ranch at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson when ultimately finishing 8th.
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Kevin Yu is another who appeals this week. Already qualified for his first Masters appearance due to his win at the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship, Yu has been building some momentum of late. 16th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, 17th at the Signature event Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines and 12th last week at the Valspar Championship, paired with Justin Thomas he had an armchair seat to watch JT’s wild ride across the final 18 holes on Sunday.
Whilst in the glare of the TV coverage in a final round pairing with Thomas who was charging towards a likely victory, it wasn’t a huge shock to see Kevin’s putter go stone cold. But Friday and Saturday Strokes Gained Putting performances of 2.23 and 1.51 on Bermuda Poa Trivialis greens very, very similar to these at Memorial Park was a green light for me to back the 26 year-old.
12th for Driving Distance All Drives, 8th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 10th for Total Driving across the PGA Tour in 2025, Yu’s approach play is excellent as is his Ball Striking where he ranks 7th in 2025.
Course form at correlating long golf courses such as Torrey Pines: 6th (2024) 17th (2025), plus Country Club of Jackson: 19th (2022) and 1st (2024) helps, and it’s worthy of note for such a talented Tee to Green player that 5 of his 7 top Strokes Gained Putting performances have been on Bermudagrass-base greens. This will be his course debut at Memorial Park and I think he will thrive on the set-up.
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Aldrich Potgieter 1pt EW 200/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
After weeks in deep fields and/or courses that simply don’t fit his hugely expansive, powerful game, I think Aldrich Potgieter will get on far better with Memorial Park this week. A flat course with little water in play and 30-40 yard wide fairways shouts Potgieter to me, and we’ve already seen in 2025 that Aldrich has 1) A defined operating window, and 2) Prefers long golf courses.
His 2nd place last December at the Nedbank Golf Challenge was on a Gary Player Country Club course that’s a 7,834 yard, Par 72 – granted at altitude. This January saw the 20 year-old South African play brilliantly at the 7,765 yard, Par 72 at Torrey Pines where he was 3rd heading into Sunday, before falling away on Sunday to 15th. It’s worth remembering that was his first time in the contention spotlight on the PGA Tour. Next time we saw him was at the 7,436 yard, Par 71 on the Norman Signature Course at VidantaWorld. Aldrich should have really won that, but ultimately lost to an inspired Brain Campbell in a play-off.
The ultimate bomber whose putting spikes as well – he gained 9.165 strokes putting at VidantaWorld, topping that category on the week – Aldrich has shown a high ceiling to both contend and learn quickly on the PGA Tour so far in 2025.
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