Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Investec South African Open Tips 2025

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The second leg of our African triple-header takes us to Durban Country Club for the South African Open. As an event that moves from venue to venue, we have seen Durban host this event before – although we’re going back 15 years and longer for those of you studying this week’s event stats.

To add to the intrigue, the course has hosted a number of small Sunshine Tour events as well as the Volvo Golf Champions event in 2013 and 2014, the salient points of which I’ve referenced a little further on in this preview, and it has also received a substantial overhaul since 2023, so how much of the history is of relevance remains to be seen.

Dean Burmester is the favourite this week at around 10/1 as he looks to defend the title he won at the back end of 2023, with Laurie Canter his closest challenger in the betting market at a best-priced 16/1 at the time of writing. Jordan Smith, John Parry and Johannes Veerman follow in what looks a fairly open affair.

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Course Overview. Durban Country Club is a short, sub-6,800 yard par 72 which sits just inland from the Indian Ocean and was built originally over sand dunes making many of the holes really quite undulating.

Very tight landing areas on some holes and a number of dog-legs makes this much more of a classical test with excellent course management and strategy likely to just about outweigh brute force, however the Durban Country Club has historically been scoreable for those players who can keep their ball out of trouble as JC Ritchie’s 26-under would suggest when we won here on the Sunshine Tour’s Jonsson Workwear Open in 2022.

Since Ritchie’s win the course has undergone a substantial renovation to tackle persistent flooding in the area, with all 18 greens rebuilt as well as bunkers and tees restored, whilst the course has lost a lot of its parkland feel with much of the foliage removed to give it a more linksy feel. The greens, which had been updated from Bermuda to Paspalum before Els’ win here in 2010, have now been replaced with a new strain of Bentgrass and should be in pristine condition for this week’s event.

The course’s close proximity to the sea and the sudden wind changes that are part and parcel of this track are its main defence, however with soft conditions expected underfoot and little wind in the forecast, the renovated track should still be scoreable for those who can keep their ball in play.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s South African Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As noted above, this event moves venues regularly so caution should be exercised with this data: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Event Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2023: Dean Burmester; 2022: Thriston Lawrence; 2021: Daniel van Tonder; 2020: Branden Grace, 14/1; 2019: Louis Oosthuizen, 13/2; 2018: Chris Paisley, 125/1; 2017: Graeme Storm, 150/1; 2016: Brandon Stone, 55/1; 2015: Andy Sullivan, 33/1; 2013: Morten Orum Madsen, 80/1; 2012: Henrik Stenson, 14/1; 2011: Hennie Otto, 33/1; 2010: Ernie Els, 9/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Durban is here.

Showery conditions are expected for this year’s South African Open with more organised pre-event rain likely to have cleared before play starts. Temperatures in the low 80s Fahrenheit will be accompanied by a moderate breeze of 10-15mph at times.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Aside from the South African Opens held here that I’ve already mentioned, there have been a smattering of Sunshine Tour events hosted on this track as well as the Volvo Golf Champions in 2013 and 2014 which was the Tour’s now defunct answer to the PGA Tour’s (Sentry) Tournament of Champions. Basic stats of the various winners here are as follows:

  • 2022, JC Ritchie (-26). 72.5% fairways (7th), 79.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 86.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.61 putts per GIR (6th)
  • 2014, Louis Oosthuizen (-12). 67.9% fairways (2nd), 69.4% greens in regulation (4th), 63.6% scrambling (9th), 1.70 putts per GIR (13th)
  • 2013, Louis Oosthuizen (-16). 58.9% fairways (18th), 73.6% greens in regulation (8th), 47.4% scrambling (27th), 1.60 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2010, Ernie Els (-25). 53.6% fairways (19th), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 60% scrambling (28th), 1.65 putts per GIR (13th)
  • 2005, Tim Clark (-15). 57.1% fairways (7th), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 81.3% scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (9th)

With names such as Tim Clark, Ernie Els and Louis Oosthuizen winning over the years, the knee-jerk reaction is to favour driving accuracy here and that assertion can only be reinforced when you note that Adilson da Silva – historically one of the most metronomic players on any Tour – won here twice on low-grade Sunshine Tour events.

The most recent data we have is from the 2022 Jonsson Workwear Open won by JC Ritchie where he ranked 7th for Driving Accuracy, and although we know that the course has been renovated since I suspect that there’ll still be a premium on finding fairways on this course.

Incoming Form: Some semblance of incoming form has generally served our eventual winners well here with everyone since 2014 having recorded a top 20 finish or thereabouts in one of their last 3 starts:

  • 2023, Dean Burmester: 54/15/14/17/7/3/16/7/18/WD/17/1
  • 2022, Thriston Lawrence: MC/8/1/MC/MC/20/MC/MC/6/13/41/33
  • 2021, Daniel van Tonder: MC/21/45/21/27/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/19/MC
  • 2020, Branden Grace: MC/51/48/30/MC/60/MC/MC/46/MC/39/3
  • 2019. Louis Oosthuizen: 5/13/16/28/24/28/31/58/32/5/29/3
  • 2018, Chris Paisley: MC/55/5/3/MC/12/MC/MC/58/MC/23/MC
  • 2017, Graeme Storm: 17/7/71/36/62/MC/MC/25/MC/22/4/MC
  • 2016, Brandon Stone: 7/35/2/9/6/12/MC/23/MC/6/1/18
  • 2015, Andy Sullivan: MC/52/11/MC/3/17/51/47/67/4/21/MC
  • 2014, Morten Orum Madsen: 28/58/38/24/MC/14/MC/MC/16/12/51/63

The most tenuous form was that of Daniel van Tonder in 2021 who’d missed 6 of 7 cuts but had show some form in Dubai on his penultimate start, and Chris Paisley who’d missed 4 of his last 6 cuts, however he’d also shown flashes of form in Hong Kong on his penultimate start.

Event Form: Local favourites Dean Burmester, Branden Grace and Louis Oosthuizen had each come close to winning their home Open before their respective successes. Form for the other winners is variable, however both Graeme Storm and Andy Sullivan’s event form at least hinted at something better to come:

  • 2023, Dean Burmester: MC/66/10/4/54/MC/MC/4/4/5
  • 2022, Thriston Lawrence: MC/MC/36/DQ/19
  • 2021, Daniel van Tonder: MC/MC/41/55/MC/55/34/59/MC/MC
  • 2020, Branden Grace: 40/MC/6/21/21/9/65/15/4/2/7
  • 2019, Louis Oosthuizen: MC/14/32/12/18/5/3/65/15/3
  • 2018, Chris Paisley: 41/MC
  • 2017, Graeme Storm: MC/4/MC/39/MC/32
  • 2016, Brandon Stone: 39/MC/MC
  • 2015, Andy Sullivan: 47/12
  • 2014, Morten Orum Madsen: Debut

Aesthetically I think we’re in for a treat this week, however whether the renovated Durban Country Club offers a great deal of resistance with pre-event rain expected and no significant wind in the forecast remains to be seen.

My final Investec South African Open tips are as follows:

Daniel van Tonder 2pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

I’ve veered away from the top of the betting this week and to start with I’m taking a chance on two South Africans who have impressed enough in 2025 to suggest that they could win their home Open, with Daniel van Tonder taking the headline spot.

The 33 year-old has been mightily impressive on home soil so far in 2025, winning twice in five starts and finishing no worse than 9th since the turn of the year.

Victory at the SDC Open at the end of January was Daniel’s 11th Sunshine Tour success and he made it a round dozen the following week at the MyGolfLife Open where he shot a massive 27-under par to beat Martin Vorster by two strokes.

A winner of the 2021 Kenya Open at DP World Tour level, van Tonder’s win in this event in 2021 came in the post-Covid period where this event was dropped from the DP World Tour schedule. Nevertheless he’s proven he’s not overawed when it comes to this event and another success – this time fully co-sanctioned – is quite possible.

23rd here way back in 2012 at the Sunshine Tour’s Suncoast Classic is positive given what he’s achieved in the meantime, and if he keeps the kind of long game performance going that we’ve seen from his 2025 outings so far then he could take all the beating here this week.

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Shaun Norris 2pts EW 40/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

The other player who’s caught the eye more than once in recent months is Shaun Norris, and having closed 2024 in such fine style perhaps the next step for the 42 year-old is to add the South African Open title to his ever growing list of victories.

A sparkling late summer into autumn on the Japan Tour saw Shaun secure a seventh title at that level at the start of December at the Golf Nippon Series JT Cup, and he quickly followed that up on his next start by winning at Leopard Creek for what was his second co-sanctioned DP World Tour title, elevating him back to the fringes of the OWGR top 100, having previously flirted with the top 50 in the past.

6th at the Dubai Desert Classic at Rolex Series level to open his 2025 campaign was at a significantly higher level than this week’s task and he’s kept himself busy since, returning home to play the MyGolfLife Open where he finished 9th before missing the cut last time out at the Dimension Data Pro-Am.

Generally a strong putter, the key for Shaun’s successes at the end of 2024 was performance with his irons – if he can tie them together once again here then I can see him overcoming an underwhelming event history and be a serious factor this week.

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JC Ritchie 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Event form that pertains to other courses of wildly different dimensions and course form that pre-dates the recent renovation creates uncertainty this week, however if there’s anything that can be drawn from performances on this piece of land prior to the 2023 upgrades then JC Ritchie is worthy of support.

The South African’s most recent of ten Sunshine Tour victories came here at Durban Country Club in 2022 just before it was closed for renovation and he’ll have fond memories of the area – even if the aesthetics have changed somewhat – having lapped the field that week, eventually running out a 6-stroke winner.

The 30 year-old has won four times on the Challenge Tour but victory at the upper level has eluded him so far, however perhaps compatriot Jacques Kruyswijk’s win last week in Kenya can act as a motivator this week for the South Africans in the field.

With four top-14 finishes from his five starts in 2025, Juan Carlo has been playing some solid golf so far this term, topping the field for GIR on his last start at the Dimension Data Pro-Am where he finished 6th. More of the same this week could see him seriously contend in his home open.

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Joel Girrbach 1pt EW 175/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Finally, if accuracy from off the tee is to prove an important factor then chancing Joel Girrbach at a long, long price might prove to be a decent bet.

The Swiss star is one of the straightest players on the circuit, ranking 2nd for the full season for Driving Accuracy in 2024 and he’s started 2025 off in similar fashion as he seeks out his maiden victory at DP World Tour level, having won on home soil on the Challenge Tour back in 2017.

3rd at last year’s China Open was the 31 year-old’s best finish of the season, following a pair of top-20 finishes in India and Japan, and Joel enters this week off the back of another top-20 having recorded that finish last week in Kenya for his best result of 2025 to date. 2nd for Driving Accuracy and 3rd for GIR were typical Girrbach stats last week, however we know that he can very occasionally find form with the putter and should that coincide with this week then we could have a live runner on our hands.

This will be Joel’s course debut here at Durban CC, however the newly renovated track levels the playing field somewhat and I’m happy to take a chance that he enjoys what here sees when he arrives here.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:40GMT 24.2.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.