Italian Open Tips 2021

Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood return to the European Tour this week and add a touch of class to the top of the betting, rating as the favourite and second favourite respectively, however both have underwhelmed a little lately with Tommy in particular not making the PGA Tour PlayOffs. Fitzpatrick’s 2^nd at the Scottish Open is undoubtedly the standout piece of form between the pair, however next week’s prize at Wentworth is far bigger and better and I’ll pass on both.

Bernd Wiesberger put a brave face on his final hole double bogey that cost him the title in the Swiss Alps on Sunday, proving once again how difficult it is for players to get over the line, regardless of which side of the Atlantic they are playing. Calum Hill and Rasmus Hojgaard at around 28/1 have recent winning form to justify their odds, however you don’t have to go much further back in time to find Antoine Rozner’s pair of European Tour titles and this week’s task presents him with a good opportunity to complete his hat-trick.

We’re seeing the revamped Marco Simone Golf & Country Club for the first time this week following its makeover to get it Ryder Cup ready and although an element of guesswork is involved, it feels to me that accuracy will be rewarded over brute force with water running alongside a number of fairways and greens and long fescue ready to gobble up anything that isn’t straight.

Although we’re not going to see the final setup this week that will presented to players in 2 years time when the biennial competition returns to European shores, whereas the American tracks used tend to encourage the bombers, the European layouts are a little more exacting and I suspect we’ll get a feel for that this week here.

Stroked Gained Off the Tee is as good a place to start as any then if that assertion is correct and aside from Laurie Canter, Rozner heads this week’s field for the season and sits in 4^th place overall on that count. On his last 5 starts where that stat has been recorded, he’s not finished outside the top 14 in the field and last week he ranked 3^rd on his way to a 13^th place finish overall.

Actually, last week’s effort requires a little more investigation, not least in the fact that the 28 year-old had to make a 30-footer on Friday just to make the weekend. 133 strokes over the weekend was as good as anyone else could muster and he closed with a best-of-the-day round of 62 to scythe his way through the field and set himself up nicely for this week’s task.

1^st for SG Tee to Green and 6^th for SG Approach tells us where he excelled last week alongside his Off the Tee performance as already mentioned, and had a few more putts dropped over the 4 days then perhaps he’d have been closer to the lead come Sunday.

9 consecutive (recorded) events of negative SG Putting is perhaps the only concern, however we’ve seen first hand with his wins in Dubai and Qatar that when that statistic switches to positive then he’s very, very competitive. September outings last year at Valderrama and Galgorm Castle on Bentgrass greens produced SG Putting ranks of 7^th and 5^th respectively and if we see a similar spark this week then another win could well be on the cards. RESULT: T52

The recent resurgence of Henrik Stenson has been noteworthy to say the least, and it will be fascinating to see if he can keep his progression going this week once again. The Iceman lost over 4 strokes from off the tee last week though and I suspect that this week will put further emphasis and pressure on that statistic.

Perhaps that improvement will provide some inspiration to Henrik’s former Ryder Cup teammate Francesco Molinari who’s quite capable of keeping the ball out of trouble from off the tee if anything approaching his ‘A game’ is on show.

The issue of course for Francesco, and the reason we’re getting 50/1 about him winning another Italian Open, is that said ‘A game’ hasn’t been evident for some time now. That said, SG positive from off the tee last week in the Alps, 9^th for SG Approach and 17^th for SG Tee to Green is a big improvement over the 4 missed cuts that preceded that effort and given his class relative to many in this field, I’ll happily take a chance that he’s turned a corner.

A 2^nd round 64 in Crans last week, his best round of 2021 to date, tied the best round of the day and featured some great approach play to encourage that he can finish the year off strongly, and although automatic qualification for the Ryder Cup is long gone, that removes any secondary pressure to perform well this week and next on two tracks that suit.

It’s easy to think that the 38 year-old has lost a bit of his competitive edge since winning The Open in 2018 given he’s not been hitting the same heights, however when you consider that in his last 40 starts he’s won the Arnold Palmer Invitational, come 3^rd in a WGC, 5^th at The Masters and racked up 3 top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour earlier this year, that’s not too shabby compared to most here. 13^th at the US Open in June was beaten by just 1 player in this week’s field and picking up a 3^rd Italian Open here isn’t out of the realms of possibility whatsoever in my view. RESULT: T52

If accurate types are to prevail this week then John Catlin has got to be a serious threat once again.

Despite 3 wins in his last 25 starts, the bookies soon lose interest in the American and his price drifts to backable levels, yet he’s shown us his credentials in triplicate when presented with the right kind of track and I get the feeling he’ll enjoy this week’s task here in Rome on his Italian debut.

After a bit of a mid-season lull where he missed 5 cuts from 6 starts, Catlin looks to be building momentum once again. 32^nd at the Cazoo Open was followed by a fine 7^th place finish at Galgorm Castle where he recorded 4 rounds in the 60s. 51^st at the Cazoo Classic was a little lacklustre after a positive start where he sat 9^th after the first round, however last week was more promising as he entered the final day in 6^th place before recording a 72 and drifting down to 21^st.

1^st for Driving Accuracy and 3^rd for GIR last week translated to 10^th for SG Off the Tee, 4^th for SG Approach and 3^rd for SG Tee to Green, and if I’ve read this track correctly that would seem to be a great starting point for success. A stone cold putter last week held him back ultimately, however a switch back to pure Bentgrass greens could be positive for the 30 year-old who won on the Creeping Bentgrass overseed at Galgorm Castle last year by gaining nearly 5 strokes on the putting surfaces, having already won on a similar surface at Valderrama. RESULT: T24

Another recent enough winner who’s quickly slipped down the odds is Daniel van Tonder but, like Catlin, there’s enough to suggest that he’s not as far away from another win as his price would suggest.

5^th for SG Off the Tee for the season to date tells us where the foundations are built in the South African’s game, and that lofty ranking comes despite having missed 8 cuts in that period of time. 6 of those weekends off came in a spell from May through to the start of August shortly after winning the Kenya Savannah Classic, however he looks to have found something in his game since then that may just culminate in another big performance.

Finishes of 21^st, 45^th and 21^st over the past 3 weeks has seen progression with his Driving Accuracy ranks (46^th, 29^th then 16^th last week) as well as a similar story with his SG Off the Tee (39^th, 23^rd, 9^th), SG Approach (48^th, 43^rd, 14^th) and SG Tee to Green (27^th, 19^th, 7^th). All a bit technical I agree, however for me that says that his long game is trending very nicely and that bodes well for this week.

4 wins on the Sunshine Tour between the end of August and start of November last year suggests that the 30 year-old can perform at this point of the year and a return to pure Bentgrass greens, not dissimilar to those at Karen Country Club where he prevailed earlier in the year, could be the final piece of the jigsaw. RESULT: T27

Finally, I’ll take a small punt on Adrien Saddier after he produced some eye-catching stats on his way to a 7^th place finish last week at Crans for a big personal best on that track.

Season-long numbers won’t tell us much about the Frenchman and 12 missed cuts from 16 starts gives us a good idea why he’s languishing so deep in the betting market. Yet 2^nd for SG Approach and 2^nd also for SG Tee to Green last week suggests that he might have found something tangible in his game that could see him go well again this week on another track that should favour long game performance.

In the past 2 years, 4^th at the Portugal Masters, 3^rd at the Oman Open, 6^th at the Scottish Championship, 9^th at the Cyprus Open and of course last week’s effort all show that he’s capable of recording a decent finish when the stars align, and with a win and play-off defeat to his name on the Challenge Tour, he’s also good enough to get into contending and winning positions. RESULT: T44