Italian Open Tips 2022

The equation at the top of the market, or the dilemma more to the point, is very similar to that which we faced last week.

With Jon Rahm and Shane Lowry the omissions this week versus last from the top of the board, the prices on Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland have each had a fairly hefty haircut. Rory is now 4/1 and the clear and worthy favourite, and quite feasibly could have won last week had his eagle putt on the 72^nd hole not wobbled right at the very last second, and that’s despite Rory not quite firing on all cylinders. He could undoubtedly win this if anything close to his best, however 4/1 shots in full-field tournaments don’t excite me.

After a promising start early on Thursday, Matt Fitzpatrick failed to push on, losing shots both around and on the greens which isn’t what we’ve expected of the US Open champion of late, whereas Viktor Hovland looked like he’d be there late on Sunday until he started carving his drives left on the final day which put paid to his chances.

The winning formula last week was to pick a player hungry for success from just outside the market leaders who had enough credentials on the course to justify a confident stake, and the closest we’ve got to that this week is Francesco Molinari.

The main difference to last week is that Molinari can’t boast the sparkling form here at Marco Simone G&CC that Lowry could at Wentworth, however there’s enough to work with from his wider Italian form in my view. 52^nd here last year saw the 39 year-old inside the top 20 heading into the weekend, however he was still recovering from back problems at the time and his slide down the leaderboard wasn’t overly surprising.

Outside of that effort, Francesco has won this event twice on two different courses and was runner up on a third track, so his adaptability on Italian soil isn’t in question; a year further on, it’s good to see the Italian in far better health as he returns home once again looking for more silverware.

Like Lowry, Molinari will also be keen to get his Ryder Cup qualification off to a flying start, stating in the past that being part of the 2023 team would be ‘the summit of his career’, and building on last week’s 9^th place finish at the West Course would be the perfect way to put him in a strong position early on in the process. 14^th for SG Off the Tee, 10^th for SG Approach and 6^th for SG Tee to Green last week suggests that his core game is back in sync which can only bode well for a man of his undoubted tee-to-green ability. RESULT: T34

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A tie for 50^th at Wentworth has largely kept Antoine Rozner out of the firing line when it comes to any major reduction in odds over last week, yet there was plenty to like in the Frenchman’s game over the 3 days.

Despite opening with a pair of bogeys on Thursday and coming home in 39 strokes on the back 9 on Sunday, the remainder of the holes were impressive enough with 7 birdies and an eagle which put him on the fringes of a top-10 finish or better at one point.

A solid effort then, however 13^th at the Czech Masters and 4^th at Crans suggest that his game’s closer than last week’s eventual finish suggests and within those efforts there are some eye-catching stats. 1^st for both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green in Prague was impressive and he improved on that further in the Alps, recording 1^st for SG Off the Tee to add to 2^nd and 1^st place rankings for SG Approach and SG Tee to Green respectively.

Of course, if the 29 year-old had putted well on either of those two efforts then he could have added a 3^rd DP World Tour title to his collection by now, and for this bet to come to fruition he’s going to need to find a spark with the flat stick this week in Italy. Judging by last year’s renewal though, a winning week can be found here with a middling performance with the putter – so we’re not talking anything too dramatic for him to feature.

52^nd here last was a useful look at this course, however it’s his previous record in the country which encourages most. Across all levels of professional golf, Antoine’s record in Italy prior to that effort reads 10/18/9/4/4/11/MC/4/10, so he’s clearly comfortable in this part of the world, and with the promise of a slightly tougher week for scoring, this test should be right up his alley. RESULT: T16

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At a similar point in the betting to Rozner, I also like the chances of Masahiro Kawamura making the frame this week.

5^th here last year at Marco Simone GC ranks inside the Japanese star’s best efforts on the DP World Tour as he seeks out his first win at this level, having previously won a co-sanctioned Japan/Asian Tour event back in 2013. 5 further runner-up finishes at that level as well as second place finishes at the DP World Tour’s Indian Open in 2019 and Cyprus Showdown in 2020 suggest that it’s more a case of when than if he gets over the line.

5^th for SG Off the Tee, 11^th for SG Approach and 8^th for SG Tee to Green here 12 months ago suggests that he got on well with the layout from a long game perspective, and more of the same here should see him in a position to contend for the title once again.

14^th at the Hero Open, 9^th at the Omega Masters, 22^nd at the Made in Himmerland and 18^th last week at Wentworth are 4 consistent performances where his SG Off the Tee rankings have slowly but surely improved as the weeks have gone by. The putter can blow both hot and cold, however 21^st for SG Putting last week was a positive sign and if he can keep that momentum going he could push again for that breakthrough win at this level. RESULT: MC

I’m going to stick with Joost Luiten for a second consecutive week given that the Dutchman appears to be making good progress following his return to golf.

I mentioned ahead of Wentworth that the 36 year-old had taken a couple of months off to regroup as he’d been getting frustrated and angry at times on the course, and that new serene approach to his game was put severely to the test as he sat 3-over through his first 5 holes on Thursday whilst many around him were almost making birdies for fun.

To Luiten’s credit he recovered well from there, making 17 further birdies over the remainder of the three rounds and he briefly ventured into an each-way spot for us on Sunday before a bogey on the par-5 12^th effectively stopped him in his tracks. Positive signs though and he was talking up his game after he settled for a tie for 23^rd in Surrey with the promise of better to come.

Stats-wise, it was typical Joost last week with 81.5% Greens in Regulation coupled with a solid week from off the tee. Despite missing a few chances on the greens, he still showed progress with the putter and he returns to Marco Simone Golf Club this week where he finished 18^th last year on debut with 4 solid rounds.

The 6-time Tour winner has an excellent overall record in Italy, finishing 2^nd and 3^rd on the Challenge Tour back in 2007 before recording two top-5 finishes in the Italian Open in 2011 and 2014 respectively. 10^th in 2020 came at Chervo but once again shows a level of comfort in this part of the world and further progress could see Luiten threatening an each-way place or better this week. RESULT: T67

Finally, with only 7 players reaching double-digits under par here last year and conditions not expected to differ substantially 12 months further on, one player who should relish a slightly more challenging week is John Catlin.

12^th for the season for SG Off the Tee is more testament to the American’s accuracy than his length off the tee; 33^rd for SG Approach and 17^th for SG Tee to Green completes an impressive set of long game rankings which would seem to be a strong fit for this week’s task given what we saw last year.

Of course, with those kind of stats there must be a flaw somewhere else otherwise the player in question would be a world-beater, and for Catlin it’s inconsistency with the putter. I saw inconsistency rather than weakness though as on occasion he’s been more than proficient with the flat stick, particularly when winning his three DP World Tour titles to date, so there’s always hope that he can find a spark with the putter on any given week.

Wins at the Andalucia Masters and Irish Open came in a 3 week spell in September 2 years ago which bodes well for those who look into biorhythms, and a third success the following April at the Austrian Open completed a trio of successes on courses where the winning score was no greater than 14-under par which correlates nicely with what we saw last year.

13^th at the ISPS Handa World Invitational at Galgorm Castle last month, the venue where he won that aforementioned Irish Open, masks the fact that John sat in 2^nd place heading into Sunday before fading and he was handy again in Himmerland a fortnight ago, sitting in 9^th before the final day.

A missed cut on the number last week at Wentworth has given the 31 year-old an extra couple of days to prepare for his return to the Marco Simone where he finished a creditable 24^th on debut 12 months ago. RESULT: MC