Italian Open Tips 2023

Although this year’s Italian Open doesn’t hold its once lofty Rolex Series status and the Ryder Cup points up for grabs are the same as last week’s Korea Championship and next week’s Soudal Open, producing a top-class performance at this year’s Ryder Cup venue has got to be top priority for those who harbour any aspirations of making Luke Donald’s team, especially with the captain himself in attendance.

Since this event moved to the Marco Simone, Ryder Cup hopefuls Nicolai Hojgaard and Robert MacIntyre have lifted the Italian Open trophy, with both undoubtedly on the radar for September’s clash on this piece of land. Seeing another player with high hopes of making the grade take this title wouldn’t surprise me whatsoever, and to that end Thorbjorn Olesen appeals this week.

Much has happened since the Dane debuted for Team Europe at Le Golf National in 2018, a qualification campaign which was punctuated by his victory in this event when it was one of the Europe’s elevated Rolex Series events at the time. Becoming a father twice may have helped settle him down following his well-publicised suspension from the Tour, and his golf has undoubtedly taken a step forward of late with victory at last May’s British Masters followed by a 4-stroke victory in Thailand in February.

That surge in form has helped propel the 33 year-old inside the OWGR top 100, a status that albeit precarious at 98^th currently could be bolstered with a strong performance this week, which in turn would earn him a place at golf’s second Major in a little over a fortnight’s time.

Aside from these motivational factors, there’s plenty to suggest he could and indeed should go well here this week. Twice a winner and twice a runner-up on Italian soil at all levels, Olesen finished 16^th here when in solid but nowhere near as strong form as he’s demonstrated so far in 2023.

20^th in Abu Dhabi, 16^th in Dubai, 4^th in Ras al Khaimah and 6^th in India flank his aforementioned Thailand Classic victory, and he returned to action following some family down-time at the Zurich Classic alongside compatriot Nicolai Hojgaard with the pair finishing 32^nd overall. Whereas Nicolai has jetted across to Mexico to continue his PGA Tour adventure, Thorbjorn’s preparation for this week’s event has been far more relaxed and that may tell when it comes to Sunday.

5^th for GIR, 3^rd for SG Approach and 3^rd for SG Tee to Green show just how strong his ironplay is right now, and a rested and rejuvenated Thorbjorn Olesen could well land his second Italian Open title here this week. RESULT: T40

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The Ryder Cup coming to Italy is likely to provide inspiration for the local contingent and, in the absence of two-time Italian Open winner Francesco Molinari, Guido Migliozzi could provide the excitement that the local support will crave here this week.

Never the most consistent of players but immensely capable when everything clicks, the Vicenza man already has experience of taming a Ryder Cup venue when he produced a magical final round of 62 at Le Golf National last September to win his third and biggest DP World Tour title to date.

16-under was the winning total in Paris on what’s an otherwise challenging test, and with a little cut on the fairways and greens this week I can see something similar being required to win here in Rome. 1^st for SG Approach and 3^rd for SG Tee to Green was the winning combination that week, proving that he’s capable of producing the kind of long game performance that may well be required to win here, and anything approaching those kind of levels could give him a sniff coming into Sunday.

4 weekends off following a solid 20^th in Abu Dhabi to start 2023 was disappointing from a player who finished 4^th at the 2021 US Open to prove his class, however 23^rd in Japan and 14^th in Korea last week shows more than enough progress for inclusion in this week’s team, particularly with his long game metrics moving very much in the right direction. 2^nd and 6^th for SG Off the Tee in particular, not withstanding the usual caddie-captured data disclaimer, has been impressive over the past fortnight.

34^th both times he’s played here at the Marco Simone is solid if unspectacular, and his performances have been uncannily similar both times with his approach game being let down by the flat stick. SG positive performances with the putter in Japan and Korea bodes well then in that respect and he demands support here this week at a backable price. RESULT: T57

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Predicting whether any player is going to find form specifically on the week that you back them isn’t an exact science as we’re all to well aware, however Adri Arnaus is the type of player who takes that statement to the extreme.

4 Missed Cuts from 8 starts so far in 2023 illustrates the Spaniard’s inconsistency perfectly, especially when you consider that his other 4 efforts include 13^th at Rolex Series level in Dubai, 6^th in Ras Al Khaimah, and 2^nd at the SDC Championship in South Africa back in March. Given that his variability is built into the price, calling him right on the correct week means decent odds and I’m happy to take a chance on him this week knowing that there’s always a risk that he’s unemployed over the weekend.

Missed Cuts at Steyn City and in Japan – and narrow ones at that – have kept the 28 year-old below the bookies’ radar this week, however we only need go back to this time last year to see Adri turn a form line of MC/MC around in dramatic style when he eventually dispatched Oliver Bekker in the play-off in Catalunya to finally record his maiden DP World Tour title.

The putter was largely to blame over his last two outings, losing strokes on both occasions, yet we only need go back to the aforementioned SDC Championship to see him top the field for SG Putting, such is the nature of his game. 2^nd on the same count at The Emirates in January proves that it was no fluke – indeed he’s a far better putter nowadays – and 7^th for SG Tee to Green in Ras al Khaimah also ticks a different but important box for this week’s test.

12^th here at the Marco Simone on debut in 2021 is positive and backed up previous Italian form which includes 2 wins back in his Alps Tour days, plus 5^th at the Chervo-hosted Italian Open in 2020. An opening 67 here last year saw Arnaus in 4^th place after day one before collapsing on the Friday – he can clearly play the course, so I’m happy to ride the rollercoaster this week. RESULT: MC

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Having backed Masahiro Kawamura on his last start at the ISPS Handa Championship only to see the Japanese star miss the cut by a shot was disappointing, however I’ll keep the faith here this week given that his price has edged out slightly and there’s still plenty to like about his game.

Having finished 17^th at the Indian Open and then runner-up Jorge Campillo in Kenya, perhaps the weight of expectation was too much for the 29 year-old as the DP World Tour hit Japanese soil, opening with a lacklustre round of 73 before recovering somewhat with a much more impressive round of 66 that threatened to see him make the weekend from a poor position.

Perhaps it was the pressure of performing at home, or maybe it was the fact that he hadn’t played competitively for 6 weeks; either way, there are no such issues or excuses this week in Italy.

Kawamura’s best effort on the DP World Tour prior to that aforementioned finish in Kenya was 2^nd to Robert MacIntyre at the 2020 Cyprus Showdown, and if anything can be drawn between that course and this given that the Scot has prevailed at both then that enhances the case for Masahiro. Certainly risk/reward and bentgrass greens are common features between the two layouts.

5^th here at the Marco Simone in 2021 was Kawamura’s debut on Italian soil and an opening 67 and closing 66 showed an aptitude for this track, even if he did follow that up with a poor missed cut here in October. A withdrawal the following week in France would suggest that all wasn’t well at that point in time though, so I’m happy give him the benefit of the doubt here this week. RESULT: MC

Finally, at a longer price, rookie Daniel Brown appeals as he continues to get a foothold at DP World Tour level.

It’s been a whirlwind few years for the Yorkshire man, graduating from the Europro Tour to the Challenge Tour in 2021 before progressing to the DP World Tour for the start of this season following a successful campaign on the second tier.

One could excuse the 28 year-old for taking some time to adjust to life at the top of European golf, however 10 starts since November have seen a perfect 10 cuts made as he’s tackled venues for the first time, with 5^th at the Joburg Open his best pre-Christmas performance and 9^th at the SDC Championship in March his best result in more recent times.

Statistics at DP World Tour level, especially those captured by Caddies, often need to be taken with something more substantial than a pinch of salt, however from what we’ve seen of Brown there’s  plenty to enthuse about. Averaging a touch over 305 yards with the driver, Dan has shown accuracy from off the tee (5^th on that count last week in Korea), quality with his irons (3^rd for GIR at the SDC Championship), touch around the greens (81.3% scrambling at Steyn City), and a hot putter (2^nd for Putting Average in Singapore), all of which over the past few events. For me it’s only a matter of time before he puts two or three of those facets together on the same week and seriously contends for his breakthrough title.

With only two renewals having been played thus far at the Marco Simone, Brown won’t be at as much of a disadvantage here as some other weeks he’ll encounter as he navigates his way through this season, and with the par-3s likely to be one of the most challenging aspects of this week’s task, the fact that he sits 5^th on Tour for scoring on the short holes this season should set him in good stead. RESULT: T57

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