Italian Open Tips 2024

Patrick Reed takes a rare venture away from LIV Golf this week and tees it up here in Italy on a sponsor’s invitation, and although the bookies have installed the former Masters champion as the clear favourite for this week, my preference is to build a team from players a little further down the betting.

On the strength of his 3^rd place finish at LIV Houston just over a fortnight ago, perhaps Reed is worthy of his position at the top of the board, however 32^nd last week at LIV Nashville was hardly eye-catching and he’ll have more travel than most to get to Italy and less preparation time to get to grips with this new layout to the Tour.

Talking of new layouts, my general feeling is that when venues are used for the first time it levels the playing field significantly to let the less experienced Tour maidens have a real chance of grabbing their breakthrough win, and few in this field are more eligible than Matthew Jordan in that respect.

The Englishman’s rookie season coincided with the stop-start nature of golf while Covid was prevalent, having graduated from the Challenge Tour in 2019 during a season in which he secured his maiden and to date only which happened to come on Italian soil in this exact week 5 years ago.

3^rd at the Wales Open in 2020; 6^th at the Hero Open, 4^th at the Omega Masters and 5^th at the Portugal Masters in 2021; 5^th at the Qatar Masters and 4^th at the Made In Himmerland in 2022; and most notably 10^th at last year’s Open Championship all suggest a player who’s either comfortable on short and/or coastal/linksy courses, something that shouldn’t surprise given the amateur accolades that he gained around the British Isles from his Wirral home.

4^th at the Kenya Open was positive, however it’s his trio of most recent results – 5^th at the Soudal Open, 13^th at the European Open and 12^th at the Scandinavian Mixed – which give me most confidence that the 28 year-old is on the cusp of a breakthrough. 1^st, 1^st and 3^rd for GIR over those three outings tells me that Jordan’s irons are in tip-top shape right now, and on a course where precise approaches could be the key he’s got to be a strong contender. RESULT: MC

One of last week’s eye-catchers statistically was Matteo Manassero, and on a short course that should play to his strengths he warrants support here in Italy.

2^nd for SG Tee to Green, 6^th for SG Off the Tee, 12^th for SG Approach and 6^th for SG Around the Green in the Netherlands, the 31 year-old returns home this week with his game in great shape and with Italian golf buoyed by compatriot Guido Migliozzi’s win last week at The International.

Manny also ranked 3^rd for GIR last week, a sure sign that he’s ready to seriously contend once again, and another quick-fire victory after breaking his 10-year drought in South Africa at the Jonsson Workwear Open could well be on the cards. That victory was his first at the top level of European golf since his 2014 win at Wentworth, however there’s more recent evidence that he can reel off wins in reasonably quick succession as he won both the Copenhagen Challenge and the Italian Challenge on the 2^nd tier last year between May and July.

That 2^nd win last year was the Verona man’s second career victory on home soil, having previously won in Italy on the Alps Tour back in 2020, and in total he’s racked up two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last nine starts when returning home at all levels.

Since his win in South Africa earlier this year, Matteo has finished 5^th at the Indian Open, 23^rd at the weather-affected China Open and 13^th at the Soudal Open before last week’s 7^th place finish in the Netherlands. He also qualified for the US Open at Walton Heath, plus has been First Round Leader in two of his last six starts. A short course a couple of hours drive from his home should suit nicely and another big performance here this week is quite possible. RESULT: T10

Taking the week off in the Netherlands seems to have kept Nacho Elvira a little under the radar, while many of those who flashed any kind of form last week have seen their prices slashed as recency bias goes into overdrive.

We last saw Nacho at the Scandinavian Mixed – another hybrid course where contrasting pairs of nine collided – where he recovered from an opening round of 73 to scythe his way through the field and eventually finish 7^th. The parkland-cum-links format at Vasatorps Golf Club seemed to appeal to the Spaniard and the shorter track with a similar dynamic this week could bring an even better finish out of him.

Of course that effort followed the 37 year-old’s second career DP World Tour victory when he edged home the Soudal Open, holding off our man Thomas Pieters and a couple more by a single shot. That’s another composite course, albeit different in style, measuring just under 7,000 yards and must be considered a positive for this week’s test in my view.

2^nd at the Kenya Open in February on a tree-lined track shortened by altitude and a play-off defeat at last year’s Made in Himmerland on another short track that’s linksy in style suggests to me that this week’s fusion of nines could be right up his alley.

We’ve also got evidence, albeit a little dated now, that Elvira can rustle up a couple of quick-fire wins as he lifted two trophies in the space of four starts on the Challenge Tour back in 2015. 9 years later and a significantly improved player nowadays, perhaps he can repeat the feat at this level above. RESULT: WD Pre-Event

Finally I’ll take a more speculative chance on England’s Tom Lewis who made more birdies than anyone last week in the Netherlands as he looks to significantly improve his status on the DP World Tour.

23 birdies at The International even eclipsed the total of winner Guido Migliozzi, however an eventual 44^th place finish tells us that he was making far too many mistakes to truly contend. Still, it’s generally easier for a professional to eradicate mistakes from their game than it is to miraculously find more birdies, and we know from his two wins in Portugal at 21- and 22-under par that when he’s scoring well he can be very dangerous.

8^th at the start of the month at the European Open was the 33 year-old’s best finish at DP World Tour level since the start of 2020, and don’t forget that this is a player who’s since then spent a couple of years on the PGA Tour and finished 2^nd at a WGC at the 2020 St Jude Invitational. At anywhere close to his best, Tom is more than capable of contending in a field of this quality.

The linksy style of the back nine here is more likely to appeal to the Hertfordshire man than the tree-lined front nine with a pair of top-5 finishes at the Dunhill Links to his name over the years, so a certain leap of faith is required. However the tree-lined parts of this course shouldn’t be excessively tight and difficult, and I can see this feeling quite like some of the scoreable English tracks that he grew up playing.

Eight career starts in Italy at DP World Tour level have produced a total of five top-20 finishes suggesting more than a level of comfort in these parts, and with the limited starts that his current exemption category provides he should be seriously motivated to make the most of these sorts of opportunities. RESULT: T33