The weather-affected South African Open ended in more frustration last week as the cancelled 4th round prevented our selection Shaun Norris from having the chance to put together a competitive final round, having relinquished the 36-hole lead on Saturday. Congratulations if you were on Dylan Naidoo who was available at up to a massive 350/1 pre-event.
On we go and the final leg of our African adventure takes us to Johannesburg for the Joburg Open, an event that’s tended to form part of the late season schedule when it’s been played in recent years. With Laurie Canter pulling out ahead of his trip to TPC Sawgrass next week, that’s left Jayden Schaper as the favourite for this week’s event at around 20/1, ahead of the likes of Jordan Smith and Shaun Norris.
2025 Golf Betting System Majors Competition sponsored by bet365
We’re giving you the opportunity to win in 2025 as we’re running our popular Majors Competition in association with bet365 who’ve put a total of £250 in cash up for grabs to the winners. The competition is in the form of a one-and-done, so all you need to do to enter is give us a single player for each of the 4 Majors – full details are here.
✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
bet365 New Customer Offer: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad
Course Overview. Houghton Golf Club in Johannesburg is a 7,227 yard par 70 that plays significantly shorter due to its altitude in the South African Highveld.
Dating back to the 1920s, Jack Nicklaus redesigned this parkland track in 2009 to bring it up to modern day standards, however despite converting the par 5 3rd hole to a long par 5 when we last visited in late 2023, the winning score was still 18-under par.
With just two par 5s on the course, the players need to make the bulk of their score on the par 4s; however despite 3 of the holes measuring over 500 yards, the altitude brings them down to size and instead the 4 sub-400 par 4s – 3 of which are on the back 9 – present good scoring opportunities for the brave or those with a strong wedge game. Greens are undulating Bentgrass and in lieu of any adverse weather the putting surfaces provide the course with at least a little protection.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Joburg Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Tournament Winners. 2023: Dean Burmester; 2022: Dan Bradbury; 2021: Thriston Lawrence; 2020: JB Hansen; 40/1; 2017 (Dec): Shubhankar Sharma, 66/1; 2017 (Feb): Darren Fichardt, 90/1; 2016: Haydn Porteous, 150/1; 2015: Andy Sullivan, 16/1; 2014: George Coetzee, 11/1; 2013: Richard Sterne, 18/1; 2012: Branden Grace, 35/1; 2011: Charl Schwartzel, 4/1; 2010: Charl Schwartzel, 9/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Johannesburg is here.
Rain over the weekend and up until Wednesday looks to be gone by the time the tournament starts leaving us with a soft course presented in optimal scoring conditions with sunshine, very little wind, and temperatures up to the low 80s Fahrenheit.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Stats from the last 2 Joburg Opens held here give us a little insight into the type of player who might succeed at Houghton:
2023, Dean Burmester (-18). 357 yards (4th), 62.5% fairways (19th), 79.2% greens in regulation (6th), 73.3% scrambling (5th), 1.70 putts per GIR (7th)
2022, Dan Bradbury (-21). 330 yards (18th), 77.8% greens in regulation (12th), 50% scrambling (31st), 1.64 putts per GIR (5th)
With the 3rd hole playing as a long par 4 in 2023 rather than a gettable par 5 from the year before, the winning total understandably deteriorated a little for Dean Burmester’s victory. The winning formula was similar for both of our victors however in that hitting close to 80% of greens and producing a decent putting week when the putting surfaces were found was key.
Incoming Form: Dean Burmester had dropped from the LIV circuit where he’d been recording some solid finishes including 17th on his last start in Jeddah, where he closed with rounds of 65/67. Before that Dan Bradbury was only playing in his sixth professional event before winning here at Houghton, however 13th on his previous outing at the Spanish Open had signalled some potential.
In fact the past 4 winners of this event had all recorded a top 20 finish on one of their previous 2 starts, and of the past 12 winners only Haydn Porteous in 2016 arrived here having missed the cut on his last outing:
Darren Fichardt: MC/16/MC/MC/31/MC/26/MC/66/32/48/53
Haydn Porteous: 5/MC/5/MC/6/28/35/15/17/36/MC/MC
Andy Sullivan: 17/51/47/67/4/21/MC/1/57/19/4/47
George Coetzee: 56/71/MC/57/74/12/32/20/MC/MC/4/5
Richard Sterne: 39/41/8/46/MC/MC/50/20/51/91/7/2
Branden Grace: MC/13/33/MC/MC/MC/18/MC/30/MC/9/14
Charl Schwartzel: 58/18/5/57/9/16/MC/MC/21/2/4/4
Charl Schwartzel: 6/48/MC/23/6/40/5/11/53/2/26/1
Event Form: Given that this event has moved venues a number of times it’s not surprising to see that Joburg Open form is very mixed from our recent winners:
Dean Burmester: MC/34/69/13/31/11/19/18/43
Dan Bradbury: Debut
Thriston Lawrence: 72/MC
Shubhankar Sharma: Debut
Darren Fichardt: 47/52/30/MC/46/25/MC/18/53
Haydn Porteous: 24
Andy Sullivan: MC/60/5
George Coetzee: MC/MC/7/14/3
Richard Sterne: 17/1/12/44/60/MC
Branden Grace: 63/MC/51/13
Charl Schwartzel: 19/14/4/1
Charl Schwartzel: 19/14/4
Am altitude shortened, soft golf course that’ being offered no protection by the weather should lead to another low-scoring event, despite the course only featuring 2 par 5s.
I’ve been caught out with lacking patience on Shaun Norris in the past, so despite letting a golden opportunity slip his grasp last week, I’m willing to give the South African another chance here this week as he heads back to his roots in Johannesburg. I recall backing Shaun at the MyGolfLife Open in March 2022 where he finished 47th after a promising start, then he won the week after when I’d given up on him – I won’t make that same mistake here this week.
The 42 year-old was beaming after a second round 64 left him alone at the top of the leaderboard last week, explaining in interview how pleased he was with both his long game and his putting. For a player of his experience and victories – 2 co-sanctioned successes as well as 7 further wins on the Japan Tour – it was a little bemusing to see him shoot 76 from the lead on Saturday to drop four behind, before being robbed of a chance to redeem himself when Sunday’s play was cancelled.
Having been born in Johannesburg, adapting to the altitude of the region has never proven to be an issue for Norris who’s recorded 3 top-3 finishes at the Joburg Open since 2017, albeit at different courses to this week’s venue. 18th here at Houghton GC in 2022 isn’t bad form, particularly as he was 12th heading into Sunday before shooting a somewhat flat round of 70.
I talked last week about Shaun’s form at the end of 2024 which saw him win in Japan then at Leopard Creek in successive starts. Finishes of 6/16/9/MC/9 in 2025 suggests to me a player who’s quite capable of adding another victory to his CV if he can string 4 rounds together in the near future, and with this week’s relatively poor field I see no reason to oppose him here.
With Jayden Schaper still searching for his first professional victory and Jordan Smith having pulled out of the South African Open with a finger issue, Norris makes the most appeal of the market leaders.
✅ New UK customers: Bet £10 Get £50 in free bets for new customers using code BETFRED50 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Betfred promo code> page
✅ Odds compiler takes a different view of many events meaning value can be found
✅ Flexible each-way terms available with 5, 7, 8 and 10 place options to choose from
Betfred New Customer Offer: New customers only. Register with BETFRED50. Deposit £10+ via debit card and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. #Ad
Daniel van Tonder 2pts EW 30/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
It’s a case of stick rather than twist this week at the Joburg Open and I’ll also keep faith in Daniel van Tonder despite him missing the cut last week in Durban.
As with Norris above, I talked last week about how well van Tonder had played in 2024 – winning twice from August onwards, as well as recording another pair of runner-up finishes – and the 33 year-old began 2025 in impressive fashion too, winning the SDC Open at the end of January before taking out the MyGolfLife Open the following week at co-sanctioned Challenge Tour/Sunshine Tour level.
Finishes of 6th and 9th followed his two wins, which made his opening round of 76 last week all the more bemusing to effectively end his tournament after 18 holes, however to his credit the Soweto man responded with a bogey-free 65 to miss the cut by a single shot and give him some confidence heading into this week’s event.
3rd here at Houghton GC in 2022, van Tonder has an exceptional record in his homeland, winning 12 times in total on the Sunshine Tour with scores as deep as 27-under. His 2021 Kenya Savannah Classic win remains his only success at DP World Tour level, however he’s more than capable of competing at this week’s level and success here this week would see him regain his card and return to the kind of level that he should be competing at.
✅ New UK customers: Bet £10 Get £50 in free bets for new customers using code BETFRED50 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Betfred promo code> page
✅ Odds compiler takes a different view of many events meaning value can be found
✅ Flexible each-way terms available with 5, 7, 8 and 10 place options to choose from
Betfred New Customer Offer: New customers only. Register with BETFRED50. Deposit £10+ via debit card and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. #Ad
Finally, of the players entitled to be most frustrated with last week’s decision to end the tournament after 54 holes, Marco Penge has got to be right up there.
Rounds of 68, 67, 68 put the Englishman into third place and just a shot behind the leaders when the final round was cancelled, leaving him still seeking his first win at DP World Tour level having won twice on the Challenge Tour in his promotion season, including at the Grand Final in late 2023.
The 26 year-old seems to have come back with a renewed focus following his well-documented ban for breaching DP World Tour betting regulations, finishing 20th in Kenya on his return to competitive action before his aforementioned effort last week, and any continuation of that form in this weak affair could see him seriously contend for his breakthrough at the upper level.
Aside from the Penge’s most recent effort, his wider South African form is strong with 4th at the SDC Championship in 2022, 12th at the 2023 South African Open and 4th the week after at Leopard Creek, and although he missed the cut here at the end of 2023 that was his first start after winning the Challenge Tour Grand Final, and he can be excused for needing a little time to find his feet.
As one of the very longest players in the field from off the tee, the altitude here will bring the Par 5s and short Par 4s here very much into range for Marco, particularly if he keeps the ball as straight from off the tee as last week where he ranked 9th in the field for fairways found. Having led the field for Putting Average the week before in Kenya, if he can put all aspects of his game together here this week then he could go very close.
✅ Bet £10 get £40 in bonuses for new customers.
✅ For further details read our Unibet sign up offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ Strong odds on First Round Leader market
Unibet New Customer Offer: 18+. BeGambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Min £10 debit card deposit. Place a £10+ bet at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days. Opt in for £20 in free bets and £20 Casino Bonus. Valid for 7 days. Geographical restrictions and T&C’s apply. #Ad
2025 Golf Betting System Majors Competition sponsored by bet365
