There are some classy enough players at the top of the list this week with the likes of Lee Westwood, Eddie Pepperell and Matt Wallace heading the betting in Holland, however that English trio could find themselves trailing in the wake of talented Kiwi Ryan Fox here this week. Westwood is undoubtedly playing some excellent golf with incoming form of 2/12 and having finished 3rd here last year on debut, however he’s a risk at the price on offer given that he hasn’t won anywhere globally since 2015, including in his travels east which used to result in him beating up weak fields on the Asian Tour. Eddie Pepperell also finished 3rd last year, however he’s notoriously difficult to call and much will depend on his focus this week as to whether he contends or whether he’s even here for the weekend. Matt Wallace gave everything he had in him to win in Denmark a fortnight ago and that showed last week as he drifted to 51st in The Alps. So, all things considered, I’m happy to start this week’s team a little further down the list with the talented New Zealander.

At 79th in the OWGR, the 31 year-old son of All Blacks legend Grant Fox is edging closer to the world’s top-50 and the chance to fulfil his dream of playing at Augusta National. With 29 places to make up between now and the end of the year – and some high-value Rolex Series events to come – he’ll want to be playing himself into top form over the next few weeks and after a few weeks at home following his US PGA Championship effort (finished 27th), he got back into the swing of things with a steady top-30 finish at Crans last week on a course that doesn’t necessarily play to his strengths. His effort at Bellerive backed up Major finishes of 41st at the US Open and 39th at The Open Championship in what was a trio of efforts that few in this field can compete with and, on his favourite type of terrain, I’d fancy his class to show here this week.

Although this isn’t a pure links here at The Dutch, it shares enough characteristics with its genuine counterparts to fall into the same category when matching players to this layout and finishes of 4th at both the 2017 Scottish and Irish Opens as well as 2nd and 6th respectively in this year’s renewals bodes well for starters. Fox’s power allows him to be aggressive on exposed tracks such as this and despite finishing a lowly 60th here on debut last year, he’s arriving with more top-class experience in the bag and I’d expect his game to flourish on this layout. Although this track isn’t all about power, 3 par-5s in the final 6 holes offer the more aggressive players a chance to complete the round in style and that could prove pivotal when push comes to shove on Sunday should Fox find himself in position. Couple that with an excellent iron game – he currently ranks 16th for GIR on Tour for the full season and finished 9th on that metric at Crans last week – and we have a potentially winning combination in my view. RESULT: MC

If the Ryan Fox selection was based more around raw potential and links-style pedigree, then balancing that with a GIR machine who’s recently proven his ability at this level is a sensible move in my view and none fit the bill more so than Andrea Pavan. The Italian’s win in the Czech Republic at the end of August was a suitable reward for some strong, consistent form in 2018 that saw top-10 finishes at the World Super 6, Trophee Hassan II, Sicilian Open and the Nordea Masters before he finally got over the line in Prague. Those results have been driven by some sublime iron-play that current sees the 29 year-old sit 13th for Greens In Regulation (73.8%) over the full season and 7th for Strokes Gained Approach, both of which are excellent indicators of a good fit for this course in my view.

Looking back at Pavan’s career, we’ve twice seen him back up a victory with another in the same season: in 2011 he secured his maiden Challenge Tour title at the Norwegian Challenge before winning the Apulia San Domenico Grand Final a few weeks later and he repeated the feat in 2013 with a further two Challenge Tour titles. Of course we’re now talking about emulating that on a bigger stage, however the way that he held off a proven winner like Padraig Harrington at the Czech Masters can only have filled him with confidence should he find himself in contention again in the near future.

Last week’s missed cut at the Omega Masters can be ignored in my view – the quirky track can easily catch up with even the best of players – and if it weren’t for taking a nightmare 11 at the 14th hole on Friday, he’d have comfortably made the cut and who’s to say that the Rome man wouldn’t have contended once again? Aside from that, he’d just become a father for the second time the week before and undoubtedly will have needed to get back into the swing of things having downed tools completely for a few days. Back in a more regular routine now, The Dutch should suit Pavan on debut this week.  RESULT: T20

A couple of eye-catching performances last week that warrant some further support at longer prices. Firstly, one of my favourite players Pablo Larrazabal who’s been given the all-clear from a niggling wrist injury and who, after the best part of two months off, hit the ground running last week in Crans. The 35 year-old is a former Open de France winner at a Le Golf National track that’s often described as inland links in style and 16th in the Alps over the weekend offered a lot of encouragement given he drove the ball nicely (19th for Driving Accuracy) and his irons were in good shape too (9th for GIR). With a long rest over the summer while many of his peers have been jet-setting around, he’ll be ready to attack this final segment of the European Tour season and at 72nd in the Race to Dubai he needs to grab a decent result or two sooner rather than later if he’s going to be involved in the big-money events that complete the schedule. Good news then that he’s returning to a country that’s served him well over the years as he attempts to finish 2018 off in style: 13th in the Dutch Futures on the Challenge Tour as an up-and-coming professional is noteworthy as he led for the first two days and finishes of 2nd, 9th and 5th at the KLM Open before it moved to The Dutch are also promising. His 2016 debut here on this track resulted in a 20th place finish courtesy of a final round 66 and the Barcelona man should feel comfortable and confident as he heads to the first tee this week. RESULT: T11

2016 winner and runner-up here at The Dutch, Joost Luiten and Bernd Wiesberger, are both former Lyoness Open winners and 2017 winner Romain Wattel finished 3rd there in 2013, so if a form line can be drawn between the two venues then Ashun Wu must come into the reckoning. 2016 Lyoness champion Wu also had a chance to repeat that feat this year as he sat in 3rd place heading into the final day before dropping away and at the price on offer I’m willing to take a punt on this course link producing the goods for a 3rd year on the trot. It’s not all about that one, perhaps tenuous, link with the 33 year-old Chinese star though as he produced a prominent showing last week at Crans where a pair of 65s on Friday and Saturday had catapulted him up to 3rd position heading into the final day. That effort, coupled with an 11th place finish in Fiji last month, suggests that his game’s not far away and when he plays his best golf it tends to coincide with a week where his irons are extremely compliant. 31st here last year doesn’t look that competitive on the face of it, however he sat in 6th place heading into the weekend and despite dropping away still managed to find just shy of 80% of greens in regulation. Like Larrazabal, at 90th in the R2D his card for 2019 is secure, however he’ll need to push on if he’s going to feature at the latter end of season when the big bucks can be earned. RESULT: Winner

One final bet for me this week, this time in the First Round Leader market. I wanted to build Englishman Matthew Baldwin into my team in some way or another and although I fear an each-way bet on the outright market might ultimately prove to be fruitless, he still has a lot going for him in the round 1 market on what’s forecast to be a calm and sunny day throughout Thursday. The 32 year-old finished 23rd at the Open Championship on debut back in 2012 to give some hint of the type of terrain that might suit him best and further results including 5th at Le Golf National in 2014 and 10th at this season’s Qatar Masters – both of which hold some correlation to this week’s test – bode well. However for a First Round Leader bet we need someone who’s capable of getting off to a fast start and Baldwin has demonstrated that a number of times in the last year or so: going back to the start of August last year, Matthew has twice ended the first day at the top of the leaderboard – namely the 2017 Finnish Challenge and the 2018 Belgian Knockout – and he’s also sat in 2nd place on three further occasions after 18 holes, including earlier this month at the Made in Denmark. In total that’s 2 wins and 3 each-way payouts from 32 starts at all levels and given the 150/1 on offer here, that’s a price worth taking a chance on in my view. RESULT: Lose