Made In Himmerland Tips 2023 - Golf Betting System

Paul Williams' Made In Himmerland Tips 2023

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Guido Migliozzi’s meltdown from the final Sunday group put paid to our chances last week at The Belfry with the Italian disappearing from sight on the leaderboard with an outward nine of 43 strokes on the final day. Congratulations to those of you who backed Daniel Hillier at a best price of 90/1 on Monday as the Kiwi produced a blistering finish to take his maiden DP World Tour title.

On to this week we go. Formerly called the ‘Made In Denmark’, for course form students it will be a welcome return to the Himmerland Golf Resort and Spa in Farso as we have renewals from 2014-17, 2019 and 2021-22 to analyse, as well as a smattering of Challenge Tour and Nordic League events that have been staged on this property over the recent past.

A young Thomas Bjorn won his first professional event around these parts on the Challenge Tour way back in 1995, before a 2012 renovation saw every green re-laid with A4 bentgrass and every bunker re-modelled, so only those who have played since that date have any practical experience of the track in its current guise, with the notable exception of Lucas Bjerregaard who’s attached to the club and plays the course regularly when at home.

Both of the Hojgaard twins are in attendance this week with Nicolai the marginal favourite at around 18/1 at the time of writing. Alexander Bjork and Jordan Smith complete the leading quartet with the likes of Yannik Paul, Thorbjorn Olesen, Robert MacIntyre and Adrian Otaegui all 28/1 or shorter.

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Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 16:30BST 3.7.23, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

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Backtee Course, Himmerland Golf & Spa Resort, Farsø, Denmark. Designer: Jan Cedermolm, re-designed by Philip Spogaard, 2012; Par: 70; Length: 6,646 yards; Fairways: Bentgrass/Festuca; Rough: Rye/Festuca; Greens: A4 Bentgrass; Stimp: 11ft.

Course Overview. From its tips the Backtee Course can stretch to nearly 7,400 yards, however from the renewals we’ve seen here it has played much shorter than that and according to the Tour website it will play just 6,646 yards this year and as a par 70 rather than 71.

As ever, caution should be exercised when taking that yardage as given as organisers have the choice of 5 tee boxes on each hole to flex distances as they see fit, however it’s played sub-7,000 yards on each of the renewals held here thus far and it seems unlikely that we’ll see a complete about turn this week.

An exposed, inland track with water in play on 5 of the holes and linksy in style, the main defence is the breeze in what is often a windy part of the world – any breeze tends to be accentuated on this type of exposed track, however at low levels of wind the course should still encourage a reasonably low score.

In terms of the layout itself, 5 of the par-4s measure under 400 yards, plus there’s a 128 yard par-3, however the par-5 11th measures well over 600 yards making it a 3-shotter for the vast majority of the field.

Aside from the driveable par-4 14th which at 284 yards ranked as the third easiest hole on the course last year, the remaining par-5 on the front 9 – the 5th– will offer the best scoring opportunity, with the 8^th now converted to a long par 4. The greens are excellent quality Bentgrass that run very true.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Made In Himmerland that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As previously noted, we’re back at Himmerland this year which hosted this event for the first 4 years of its existence as well as in 2019, 2021 and 2022, so the results from the 2018 season should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Current/Event Form Stats | SG Stats

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2022: Oliver Wilson, 200/1; 2021: Bernd Wiesberger, 20/1; 2019: Bernd Wiesberger, 70/1; 2018: Matt Wallace, 40/1; 2017, Julian Suri: 60/1; 2016: Thomas Pieters: 12/1; 2015: David Horsey, 80/1; 2014: Marc Warren, 30/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

Lengthy sunny spells are expected this week with temperatures reaching the low-70s Fahrenheit in the afternoons. Winds will be moderate at 15-20mph to start the event, dropping a little over the weekend.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the winners from 6 of the years played here at Himmerland gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

2022: Oliver Wilson (-21). 51.8% fairways (34th), 76.4% greens in regulation (18th), 70.6% scrambling (15th), 1.65 putts per GIR (3rd).
2021: Bernd Wiesberger (-21). 53.6% fairways (20th), 73.6% greens in regulation (12th), 68.4% scrambling (29th), 1.64 putts per GIR (7th).
2019: Bernd Wiesberger (-14). 60.7% fairways (28th), 73.6% greens in regulation (8th), 52.6% scrambling (52nd), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st).
2016: Thomas Pieters (-17). 57.1% fairways (29th), 66.7% greens in regulation (41st), 70.8% scrambling (5th), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).
2015: David Horsey (-13). 50% fairways (52nd), 76.4% greens in regulation (8th), 52.9% scrambling (38th), 1.69 putts per GIR (10th).
2014: Marc Warren (-9). 44.6% fairways (61st), 68.1% greens in regulation (16th), 56.5% scrambling (31st), 1.67 putts per GIR (3rd).

No stats were captured for Julian Suri in 2017 as he was plying his trade predominantly on the Challenge Tour at the time.

From what we’ve seen over the 7 renewals here, Driving Accuracy is seemingly less important than some tracks and the course neither alienates the shorter hitters nor overly favours the bombers – the common denominator from the stats above is primarily the ability to putt well on these slick bentgrass greens.

Although the numbers are patchier for 2017, of the 7 players with recorded stats and finished inside the top 9, all of them ranked inside the top 27 for putting average, included in which we had 1st, 3rd, 7th and 9th place finishers in that stat. Bernd Wiesberger ranked 1^st and 7^th for putting average when winning here twice, and Oliver Wilson’s 3^rd on that same count backs up what we all saw with our own eyes as he putted his way to victory last autumn..

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the common metrics are SG Approach and SG Tee to Green with Wilson and Wiesberger (twice) ranking inside the top 10 on both counts:

2022: Oliver Wilson: T: 19th; A: 8th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 8th; P: 9th
2021: Bernd Wiesberger: T: 7th; A: 3rd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 16th; P: 17th
2019: Bernd Wiesberger: T: 54th; A: 2nd; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 29th; P: 26th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Event Winners – Incoming Form: Marc Warren arrived in Denmark 9 years ago in decent form having finished 3rd at the Scottish Open, 39th at the Open Championship then a creditable 15th at the US PGA Championship. He’d been putting consistently well for a few weeks, ranking inside the top-20 for putts per GIR on each of his last 4 starts and found enough greens on the week in windy conditions to compile a winning score.

David Horsey’s form the year after was less obvious having recorded 4 top-20 finishes in the season, however he too had been putting reasonably well, recording 3 top-20 putting performances out of his most recent 4 cuts made.

Thomas Pieters was 2nd favourite for this title 7 years ago having arrived after finishes of 4th at The Olympics and 2nd the week before when defending in the Czech Republic and his chance was a fairly obvious one, whereas Julian Suri was still relatively under-the-radar as he was still playing predominantly on the Challenge Tour, however a runner-up finish in Portugal and 16th on his previous start – where he was 4th going into the final day – suggested that he wasn’t far away from winning at this kind of level.

Matt Wallace arrived in Denmark in 2018 following a disappointing 36th in the Czech Republic when chasing an unlikely Ryder Cup qualification. With his only remaining chance to win and impress an on-looking Thomas Bjorn, the Englishman did just that by birdieing 5 of his final 6 holes to make a 4-man play-off which he won with birdies at both the first and second extra hole. Wallace had already won the Indian Open and BMW International Open in the season.

For the first of his wins, Bernd Wiesberger arrived with some steadily improving overall form to his name, having started the 2019 season slowly. 23rd at the Indian Open contained some brief glimpses of improvement before a 68/68 weekend in China had registered his best finish of the year. A final round 76 on his last start at the British Masters masked his overall progression and 70/1 was the reward for those who sided with the Austrian. The Covid-delayed defence of his title in 2021 by the Austrian came off of fairly non-descript form.

Oliver Wilson’s win last year came with a season’s best finish of 12^th in Qatar 5 months prior, however there was at least a spark of form the previous week when firing a 2^nd round 64 at Crans-sur-Sierre and taking just 109 putts over the course of the week:

2022: Oliver Wilson: 42/MC/64/MC/MC/MC/70/MC/41/MC/33/44
2021: Bernd Wiesberger: 36/25/6/53/59/31/MC/42/MC/40/34/MC
2019: Bernd Wiesberger: MC/MC/51/42/MC/MC/MC/55/MC/23/14/70
2018: Matt Wallace: MC/3/20/51/MC/1/MC/MC/MC/MC/19/36
2017: Julian Suri: 31/1/3/23/11/MC/27/23/MC/16
2016: Thomas Pieters: 28/26/MC/27/16/29/30/86/4/2
2015: David Horsey: 42/15/MC/MC/38/11/MC/MC/66/33
2014: Marc Warren: 33/28/16/MC/29/MC/26/3/29/15

Course Form Of Winners: In terms of course form here in Himmerland, Oliver Wilson was pickable last year based on his 4^th place finish around this track the year before:

2022: Oliver Wilson: 26/60/29/4
2021: Bernd Wiesberger: 1
2019: Bernd Wiesberger: Debut
2017: Julian Suri: Debut
2016: Thomas Pieters: 35
2015: David Horsey: 39
2014: Marc Warren: Debut

My selections are as follows:

Thorbjorn Olesen 3pts EW 22/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

The uber-talented Hojgaard twins dominate the betting this week in their homeland, however there’s enough evidence to suggest that it may not be that straightforward. Rasmus pulled out of both the BMW International Open and last week’s British Masters following a rib injury, and Nicolai’s record here at Himmerland reads MC/MC/40/MC plus he’s got to contend with travel back from Detroit having competed for all 4 rounds at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, finishing in a tie for 21^st.

Of course Rasmus could have been keeping his powder dry for this home event and Nicolai’s form at the higher grade PGA Tour has to be respected, however I prefer the chances of their more experienced compatriot Thorbjorn Olesen.

I talked last week about multiple winners cropping up on the DP World Tour this season with Thriston Lawrence, Adrian Meronk, Pablo Larrazabal and Ockie Strydom all having lifted two trophies in the 2022/23 wraparound campaign, and Olesen could become the fifth member of that illustrious group on Sunday having already won the Thailand Classic back in February.

That success made it 7 wins at this level in a career that’s seemingly back on track now following his well-documented issues, and he’s shown little sign of taking his foot off the gas since his win, finishing 6^th at the Indian Open and 3^rd at the Soudal Open as he continues to push for a Ryder Cup spot.

21^st for SG Off the Tee, 16^th for SG Approach and 6^th for SG Tee to Green are season-long figures that demonstrate just how well the 33 year-old has been striking the ball this term, and save for a couple of mistakes – finding water twice at the par-5 3^rd on Saturday when going for the green, then making double at the 6^th on Sunday – he’d have been far closer to defending his British Masters title last week than his eventual 15^th place finish.

Olesen hasn’t won on home soil as a professional thus far, however his best result came here at Himmerland in 2014 when he finished 7^th having been in contention all week, and he’s since finished 14^th, 31^st and 22^nd here in 2017, 2021 and 2022 respectively to suggest that he could go very close given his current state of game.

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Adrian Otaegui 2pts EW 28/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Alexander Bjork was tempting given his continued run of consistent finishes and a clear liking for this track, however given the lack of depth in this field he’s understandably been found in the market and could go off favourite by Thursday morning at a short price.

As Bjork continues to drop closer to around the 14/1 level here this week, available at twice that price is Adrian Otaegui who’s got every reason to want to stick two fingers up to the Tour and win on his return from reportedly receiving a 4-event ban following his previous LIV involvement, which essentially meant taking June off for the Spaniard.

A winner on Tour as recently as October at Valderrama, the last time we saw the 30 year-old he finished 2^nd at a far more compatible KLM Open with regards this week’s venue, at the exposed and linksy Bernardus Golf.

Despite that track in Holland measuring over 7,400 yards, Otaegui still managed to rank 7^th for SG Off the Tee, 5^th for SG Approach and 1^st for SG Tee to Green, and this week’s dimensions should suit him far better. That much is clear looking at his record here at Himmerland with 5 cuts made from 5 attempts and a best of 3^rd here in 2016 behind Thomas Pieters.

Whether we’ll see a refreshed or rusty Otaegui depends on the spin that you choose to give his enforced break; either way there’s evidence to suggest that he can perform after some downtime. 2^nd at last year’s ISPS Handa Championship in Spain came after a 4-week break around The Masters, and both of his Paul Lawrie Match Play and Belgian Knockout victories came 3 weeks after his previous outing.

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Matthew Jordan 1pt EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Daniel Hillier’s win last week could prove to be a shot in the arm for his follow twenty-something Tour maidens, and of those playing here this week Matthew Jordan is one of the more likely to follow in the Kiwi’s footsteps.

Amateur wins at the St Andrews Links Trophy and the Lytham Trophy earned the 27 year-old a scribble in many a golf observer’s notebook for anything vaguely linksy in the future, and it’s no surprise that he’s comfortable in those surroundings having played his formative golf in and around the Wirral.

Career highlights include 5^th at the 2019 Dunhill Links, 6^th at the Fairmont St Andrews hosed Hero Open in 2021 and 5^th at the Doha-hosted Qatar Masters last year to reinforce the links(y) point, plus there’s supplementary evidence at tracks such as Celtic Manor (3^rd, 2021) and Vilamoura (5^th, 2021) to suggest that exposed courses where a bit of wind is the only real defence is where his strengths lie.

4^th here last year was fuelled by a Saturday round of 62 which tied the best rounds of the week, and more of the same this time around isn’t out of the question given what we’ve seen of the Englishman man lately. 16^th at the KLM Open, 22^nd at the Porsche and 9^th at the Volvo Mixed is good, consistent golf and he sat in 11^th place after 54 holes last week at The Belfry before fading on Sunday to suggest that his game is pretty close.

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Soren Kjeldsen 1pt EW 225/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally I’ll take a chance on the experienced Soren Kjeldsen whose chances are somewhat limited these days given his lack of length off the tee, making this an event he can target for a lofty finish.

At 48 years of age, it won’t be long before the Dane can ply his trade on the Senior circuit where his 274 yard average drives won’t be as cruelly exposed as they are on the main Tour, however under the right conditions and on the right course Soren can still compete, as we saw most recently at the Scandinavian Mixed where the sub-7,000 yard set-up allowed him to navigate to an eventual tie for 5^th place and a season’s best finish.

Straight driving (8^thfor Driving Accuracy for the 2022/23 season to date) is Kjeldsen’s biggest asset to compensate for his lack of length, however we’ve seen some positive SG Approach numbers of late (10^th at the Porsche, 11^th at the Volvo Mixed) and the odd spark with the putter (12^th for SG Putting at each of the ISPS Handa Championship, Korea Championship and again at the Volvo Mixed) to suggest that he could compile 4 competitive rounds if some of these numbers collide again this week.

Form here at Himmerland is encouraging too: runner-up to David Horsey here in 2015, Soren finished 8^th the following year despite a Saturday round of 73 and opening rounds of 66/64 in September put the veteran in 4^th place heading into the weekend before fading.

With a vociferous home crowd cheering him on, I can see Kjeldsen threatening an each-way place at a huge price.

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