Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Magical Kenya Open Tips 2024

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The DP World Tour returns this week after a short break, with the players first heading to Kenya before venturing to South Africa for a fortnight of co-sanctioned Sunshine Tour events, then of course focus starts to switch to Augusta National and the lead up to The Masters.

First things first though and the Magical Kenya Open sees its fifth renewal following its promotion to the main Tour in 2019, having previously been an early-season fixture on the Challenge Tour. Guido Migliozzi won the 2019 edition, with Justin Harding taking the title in 2021 after Covid prevented the 2020 renewal from happening; there was also the Kenya Savannah Classic in 2021, played the week after Harding’s victory, however that and the previously mentioned events were all hosted at Karen Country Club and should be considered accordingly.

The 2022 event moved from the south-west of Nairobi to the north-east and Muthaiga Golf Club, where Ashun Wu proved victorious with a dominant 4-stroke victory. Jorge Campillo grabbed the trophy last year when the event returned to the same venue, holding off Japanese star Masahiro Kawamura by 2 strokes. One of the pioneering courses in Kenya with its roots all the way back to the early 1900s, Muthaiga has hosted the Kenya Open on many occasions further back in the past with the likes of Seve Ballesteros, Ian Woosnam and Ken Brown on the long list of winners here.

Qatar Masters winner Rikuya Hoshino rates as the uneasy favourite this week at 16/1 in places, marginally ahead of the likes of Thriston Lawrence and Ewen Ferguson who are also sub-20/1 chances. Alex Fitzpatrick, Frederic Lacroix and Romain Langasque follow in what can only be described as a particularly weak event, it has to be said.

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Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 11:15GMT 20.2.24, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Magical Kenya Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as The Masters approaches. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, 6,300 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Overview. Situated to the north-east of Nairobi, Muthaiga is a 7,228 yard, par 71 parkland layout that dates back to 1926. Peter Matkovich completed a renovation of the track in 2004 which brought the club up to (relatively) modern standards, and from what we’ve seen from the two renewals here it looks pretty impressive as it attempts to justify its ‘Home of Golf’ claim.

5 par-3s and 4 par-5s explains the par 71 description, and the front 9 plays considerably longer than the back with over 400 yards the difference between the two halves. Lakes, ponds and trees present problems for those who are flagrant from off the tee, whilst the club claims to have the fastest greens in East Africa which were laid using Bentgrass as part of Matkovich’s work.

Even going back to the 1960s and 70s, the scoring here at Muthaiga hasn’t tended to get out of control, with -10 to -12 generally a competitive score. Aaron Rai’s winning total of -17 in 2017 was among the lowest totals recorded here, and I suspect that whenever it’s firm underfoot it will present a challenge to the professionals.

Nairobi sits at around 5,000 feet above sea level so the altitude here at Muthaiga also helps the ball fly further, much as it did at the previous venue, Karen Country Club.

magical kenya open tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Magical Kenya Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event, on both the Challenge Tour and DP World Tour.

For reference, Muthaiga GC hosted the Kenya Open on the Challenge Tour from 2009-12, 2017-18, and from 2022-23 only in this week’s data: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Magical Kenya Open Winners: 2023: Jorge Campillo, 45/1; 2022: Ashun Wu, 60/1; 2021: Justin Harding 33/1; 2019: Guido Migliozzi, 300/1.

Course Winners (Challenge Tour). 2018, Lorenzo Gagli (-11); 2017, Aaron Rai (-17); 2012, Seve Benson (-10); 2011, Michiel Bothma (-14); 2010, Robert Dinwiddie (-12); 2009, Gary Boyd (-13).

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Nairobi is here.

The tournament should enjoy warm (mid-80s Fahrenheit) and dry conditions throughout the 4 days. The breeze picks up a little in the afternoons, and is likely to be noticeable at 15-20mph at times.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. In terms of raw player statistics at Muthaiga, we only have the last two events to go on:

  • 2023: Jorge Campillo (-18). 351 yards (24th), 71.2% fairways (3rd), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 76.9% scrambling (9th), 1.74 putts per GIR (28th).
  • 2022: Ashun Wu (-16). 324 yards (63rd), 57.7% fairways (28th), 70.8% greens in regulation (23rd), 66.7% scrambling (14th), 1.62 putts per GIR (1st).

With the altitude here, all players tend to average well in excess of 300 yards off the tee and those players who finished in the leading positions were by no means the longest players on either week, suggesting that driving distance isn’t a major factor here.

Campillo’s long game stats were better than Wu’s, with the latter putting better overall, however both men were solid around the green which is undoubtedly also a factor here at Muthaiga.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, stats for both Campillo and Wu’s wins were captured and are as follows:

  • 2023: Jorge Campillo: T: 37th; A: 5th 3; T2G: 7th; ATG: 33rd; P: 12th
  • 2022: Ashun Wu: T: 62nd; A: 4th 3; T2G: 4th; ATG: 28th; P: 4th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Campillo’s route to success was almost a carbon copy of Wu’s, with strong Approach and Tee to Green figures backed up by an impressive enough display on the greens.

Incoming Form. The incoming form of the last 7 winners here at Muthaiga is as follows:

  • 2023, Jorge Campillo: 50/MC/32/9/35/52/MC/28/61/MC/66/4
  • 2022, Ashun Wu: 40/45/16/MC/32/MC/MC/16/12/30/MC/42
  • 2018, Lorenzo Gagli: MC/6/31/26/MC/19/MC/MC/MC/MC/34/29
  • 2017, Aaron Rai: 8/20/10/57/26/58/13/19/34/45/MC/7
  • 2012, Seve Benson: MC/16/62/MC/30/MC/MC/20/MC/MC/9/62
  • 2011, Michiel Bothma: MC/MC/50/MC/MC/MC/MC/65/23/48/MC/15
  • 2010, Robert Dinwiddie: MC/MC/32/MC/MC/70/MC/33/MC/MC/44/5
  • 2009, Gary Boyd: MC/MC/6/24/MC/MC/MC/MC/63/MC/40/23

Last year’s winner Jorge Campillo had been largely off the boil at the start of 2023 before finding some form on his previous outing at the Hero Indian Open, eventually finishing 4th courtesy of a Strokes Gained positive performance in every category.

2022 winner Ashun Wu had some fairly solid if unspectacular results in his recent past before winning here, with a 12th place finish at the high-class Abu Dhabi Championship to start his 2022 campaign the highlight. 42nd on his previous start 3 weeks before didn’t give away many clues, although he did close with his best round of the week, a 68.

In relatively recent times prior to that, Lorenzo Gagli had produced 2 good rounds from 4 at the Tshwane Open and Qatar Master on his last 2 starts at a higher level; similarly Aaron Rai had finished 7th at the Joburg Open on his previous start, before dropping down a level to win.

For completeness, since the Kenya Open joined the main Tour, the incoming form of the winners – including the Kenya Savannah Classic – is as follows:

  • 2021, Daniel Van Tonder: 1/10/1/1/28/1/76/39/MC/71/2/MC
  • 2021, Justin Harding: MC/11/MC/MC/30/38/MC/48/62/27/41/MC
  • 2019, Guido Migliozzi: MC/MC/MC/MC/1/MC/MC/56/MC/MC/63/MC

Of course these results are from Karen Country Club and should be considered accordingly.

For me, players with a preference for short courses and/or those with altitude impacting the ball flight is a positive; likewise those who have shown an ability to perform on quicker Bentgrass greens in the past should enjoy this setup.

My Magical Kenya Open Tips Are As follows:

John Catlin 2pts EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

Bet of the week for me in Kenya is John Catlin.

The promise of a little wind to toughen this course up will be music to the ears of the accurate American on a track that typically sets up firm, fast and relatively short once the altitude is factored in. 3 wins at this level have come at +2 (Valderrama, 2020), -10 (Galgorm Castle, 2020) and -14 (Diamond Country Club, 2021) and whilst I can’t see this playing anywhere near as tough as the first win in that sequence, the other two are good barometers for this week’s test and all three courses share some topography and agronomy links with Muthaiga.

4 further wins on the Asian Tour as well as another pair of successes at the development level in Asia suggests that he’s the kind of golfer who can win in any location when the course suits, and this week’s task fits like a proverbial glove.

6th heading into Sunday on his Crans-sur-Sierre debut in 2021 was noteworthy for future short, altitude-based tests such as this, and he opened with 64 here last year to co-lead after the first 18 holes before eventually finishing in a tie for 15th place.

That effort here a little under 12 months ago is also interesting in that the 33 year-old had missed his previous three cuts and hadn’t finished inside the top-50 all year to that point in time, so he clearly found something he liked here on course debut.

Having once been a player with top 50 OWGR aspirations having reached a career-best of 76th in the world rankings in 2021, Catlin now sits outside the top 400 although there are undoubtedly signs that his stock is on the rise once again. 6th at the Thailand Open in December was followed by 10th in Mauritius before he downed tools for the festive period. He was sitting in 6th place heading into the weekend in Thailand on his reappearance before having to withdraw due to food poisoning, so last week’s 3rd place finish at the Malaysian Open on the Asian Tour should have come as no massive surprise.

Healthy once again and at a venue that suits, I’m hopeful of a big week here from the Californian. RESULT: T50

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Sam Bairstow 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

In this low-grade affair, the top of the market holds little appeal to me this week so I’ll stick to mid-priced players, the next of whom is Sam Bairstow.

One of the names near the top of the list at a much shorter price is Alex Fitzpatrick, however fellow Yorkshireman Bairstow can boast a similar career to date and potentially a similarly high ceiling, without the more famous older brother potentially impacting his odds at this stage of his development.

Like Fitzpatrick (Alex), Bairstow got his breakthrough win last summer on the Challenge Tour and now plies his trade at the top level of European golf. Victory at the Scottish Challenge came in blustery conditions in Aberdeenshire, and the manner in which he had to pick his way around that course peaked my interest for this week’s task.

A coastal Scottish test compared to an altitude-based affair in Africa are different beasts I grant you, however a second round 64 at the Joburg Open in late November offers a little encouragement that he can do the thin air maths, and with GIR ranks of 4th and 6th on his last two DP World Tour starts he would appear to have the right kind of iron-play quality to compete here.

2024 form of 23rd, 23rd and 13th in the stretch from Ras al Khaimah through to Qatar is encouraging, particularly as he sat in 4th and 7th place heading into Sunday on the last two of those efforts. It’s all part of the learning curve of course and maybe this bet is a little too early in his development, however in a weak field on a course that most players in attendance have limited experience of, I’ll happily take a chance on the promising Sheffield native. RESULT: MC

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✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

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Masahiro Kawamura 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

At a similar price point, a player who has a nice combination of course form and impressive enough current form to get the nod is Masahiro Kawamura.

7th to open his 2024 campaign at the Rolex Series level Dubai Desert Classic was more than noteworthy, fuelled largely by a second round 63 which had commentators and punters alike whispering the immortal ’59 watch’ words for a few minutes before he coasted home. That effort tied the best round of the week nevertheless, matched only by eventual winner Rory McIlroy, placing Wu in pretty illustrious company.

A tailed-off 78th the following week with many a punter hoping for a strong follow-up effort in lower-grade company in Ras Al Khaimah is a fairly typical story for the DP World Tour, however 16th last time out offers some encouragement, ranking 6th for Driving Accuracy and 3rd for SG Putting at Doha Golf Club.

2nd here behind Jorge Campillo is the obvious piece of form suggesting that the 30 year-old is suited to the track, however finishes of 9th and 8th the last two times that Masahiro has played at Crans-sur-Sierre suggests he’s quite comfortable on shorter, fiddly tracks where adjustments need to be constantly made to take account of the thin air.

With the recent wins of Rikuya Hoshino in Qatar and Hideki Matsuyama last week at Riviera, Japanese golf is trending massively right now, and if Kawamura can take any inspiration from his compatriots’ victories then he could be the next player to break through at DP World Tour level, potentially as soon as this week. RESULT: MC

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✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

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Ashun Wu 1pt EW 66/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

Finally, I backed Ashun Wu at the 2024 curtain-raiser in Dubai with the caveat that for him to perform well then his driver would need to behave. 48th out of 60 players was the result that week, driven (quite literally) by the Chinese star hitting just 35% of fairways and beating just 3 other players in that respect.

Fast-forward a month and the last time we saw Wu, and any of this field from a DP World Tour perspective, was in Qatar the week before last and he seemed to have sorted things out somewhat with the big stick, and that makes him a danger here. 17th for Driving Accuracy in Doha was his best in-field ranking for fairways found for 12 months, and the fact that he comes to an altitude-shortened course where driver isn’t the critical element also helps his cause.

In old money, GIR is a key attribute here at Muthaiga with last year’s winner Jorge Campillo hitting over 80% of putting surfaces in the requisite number and ranking 2nd on that count a case in point. 3rd for GIR in Bahrain then 4th on that same metric in Qatar suggests that Wu’s irons are pretty sharp right now. SG positive in every category in Doha is also interesting as Campillo achieved exactly the same feat before winning here last year.

Then of course we have the very obvious course form, with Wu winning here on course debut 2 years ago. He arrived here back then in fairly similar overall form before beating the field by four clear strokes, and if everything clicks here this week then a repeat performance isn’t out of the question. RESULT: T23

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 12:30GMT 19.2.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.