Magical Kenya Open Tips 2025 - Golf Betting System

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The DP World Tour returns this week after a short break, with the players first heading to Kenya before venturing to South Africa for a fortnight of co-sanctioned Sunshine Tour events, then of course focus starts to switch to Augusta National and the lead up to The Masters.

First things first though and the Magical Kenya Open sees its sixth renewal following its promotion to the main Tour in 2019, having previously been an early-season fixture on the Challenge Tour. Guido Migliozzi won the 2019 edition, with Justin Harding taking the title in 2021 after Covid prevented the 2020 renewal from happening; there was also the Kenya Savannah Classic in 2021, played the week after Harding’s victory, however that and the previously mentioned events were all hosted at Karen Country Club and should be considered accordingly.

The 2022 event moved from the south-west of Nairobi to the north-east and Muthaiga Golf Club, where Ashun Wu proved victorious with a dominant 4-stroke victory. Jorge Campillo grabbed the trophy in 2023 when the event returned to the same venue, holding off Japanese star Masahiro Kawamura by 2 strokes, before Darius van Driel completed an impressive maiden victory here 12 months ago.

One of the pioneering courses in Kenya with its roots all the way back to the early 1900s, Muthaiga has hosted the Kenya Open on many occasions further back in the past with the likes of Seve Ballesteros, Ian Woosnam and Ken Brown on the long list of winners here.

2023 Kenya Open winner Jorge Campillo heads a wide-open market this week at around 22/1 with the Tour’s most recent winner, Haotong Li, just behind him in the betting. Sebastian Soderberg, Angel Ayora, Joe Dean and Joost Luiten complete the top half dozen players in the market in this full field event.

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Course Overview. Situated to the north-east of Nairobi, Muthaiga is a 7,208 yard, par 71 parkland layout that dates back to 1926. Peter Matkovich completed a renovation of the track in 2004 which brought the club up to (relatively) modern standards, and from what we’ve seen from the three renewals here it looks pretty impressive as it attempts to justify its ‘Home of Golf’ claim.

5 par-3s and 4 par-5s explains the par 71 description, and the front 9 plays considerably longer than the back with over 400 yards the difference between the two halves. Lakes, ponds and trees present problems for those who are flagrant from off the tee, whilst the club claims to have the fastest greens in East Africa which were laid using Bentgrass as part of Matkovich’s work.

Even going back to the 1960s and 70s, the scoring here at Muthaiga hasn’t tended to get out of control, with -10 to -12 generally a competitive score. Aaron Rai’s winning total of -17 in 2017 was among the lowest totals recorded here, and I suspect that whenever it’s firm underfoot it will present a challenge to the professionals.

Nairobi sits at around 5,000 feet above sea level so the altitude here at Muthaiga also helps the ball fly further, much as it did at the previous venue, Karen Country Club.

magical kenya open tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Magical Kenya Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event, on both the Challenge Tour and DP World Tour.

For reference, Muthaiga GC hosted the Kenya Open on the Challenge Tour from 2009-12, 2017-18, and from 2022-24 only in this week’s data: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Magical Kenya Open Winners: 2024: Darius van Driel, 80/1; 2023: Jorge Campillo, 45/1; 2022: Ashun Wu, 60/1; 2021: Justin Harding 33/1; 2019: Guido Migliozzi, 300/1.

Course Winners (Challenge Tour). 2018, Lorenzo Gagli (-11); 2017, Aaron Rai (-17); 2012, Seve Benson (-10); 2011, Michiel Bothma (-14); 2010, Robert Dinwiddie (-12); 2009, Gary Boyd (-13).

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Nairobi is here.

The tournament should enjoy warm (mid-80s Fahrenheit) and dry conditions throughout the 4 days. The breeze picks up a little in the afternoons, and is likely to be noticeable at 15-20mph at times.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. In terms of raw player statistics at Muthaiga, we only have the last three events to go on:

2024: Darius van Driel (-14). 292 yards (68th), 61.5% fairways (10th), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 78.9% scrambling (3rd), 1.77 putts per GIR (36th).
2023: Jorge Campillo (-18). 351 yards (24th), 71.2% fairways (3rd), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 76.9% scrambling (9th), 1.74 putts per GIR (28th).
2022: Ashun Wu (-16). 324 yards (63rd), 57.7% fairways (28th), 70.8% greens in regulation (23rd), 66.7% scrambling (14th), 1.62 putts per GIR (1st).

With the altitude here all players tend to average ahead of their season’s average, and for me driving distance isn’t a major factor here.

Campillo and van Driel’s long game stats were better than Wu’s, however all three men were solid around the green which is undoubtedly also a factor here at Muthaiga.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, stats from the last three events here were captured and are as follows:

2024: Darius van Driel: T: 32nd; A: 8th 3; T2G: 5th; ATG: 22nd; P: 18th
2023: Jorge Campillo: T: 37th; A: 5th 3; T2G: 7th; ATG: 33rd; P: 12th
2022: Ashun Wu: T: 62nd; A: 4th 3; T2G: 4th; ATG: 28th; P: 4th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

The route to success was almost a carbon copy for all three winners, with strong Approach and Tee to Green figures backed up by an impressive enough display on the greens.

Incoming Form. The incoming form of the last 8 winners here at Muthaiga is as follows:

2024, Darius van Driel: MC/36/MC/25/MC/MC/MC/9/52/4/29/MC
2023, Jorge Campillo: 50/MC/32/9/35/52/MC/28/61/MC/66/4
2022, Ashun Wu: 40/45/16/MC/32/MC/MC/16/12/30/MC/42
2018, Lorenzo Gagli: MC/6/31/26/MC/19/MC/MC/MC/MC/34/29
2017, Aaron Rai: 8/20/10/57/26/58/13/19/34/45/MC/7
2012, Seve Benson: MC/16/62/MC/30/MC/MC/20/MC/MC/9/62
2011, Michiel Bothma: MC/MC/50/MC/MC/MC/MC/65/23/48/MC/15
2010, Robert Dinwiddie: MC/MC/32/MC/MC/70/MC/33/MC/MC/44/5
2009, Gary Boyd: MC/MC/6/24/MC/MC/MC/MC/63/MC/40/23

Darius van Driel had shown signs of form at the back end of 2023 before winning here in February last year. 9^th at the Joburg Open came courtesy of a closing round of 63, and he improved on that finish a fortnight later at Leopard Creek to finish 4^th overall. The Dutchman overcame a missed cut on his last start in Qatar to secure his maiden DP World Tour title in impressive style.

2023 winner Jorge Campillo had been largely off the boil at the start of 2023 before finding some form on his previous outing at the Hero Indian Open, eventually finishing 4^th courtesy of a Strokes Gained positive performance in every category.

2022 winner Ashun Wu had some fairly solid if unspectacular results in his recent past before winning here, with a 12^th place finish at the high-class Abu Dhabi Championship to start his 2022 campaign the highlight. 42^nd on his previous start 3 weeks before didn’t give away many clues, although he did close with his best round of the week, a 68.

In relatively recent times prior to that, Lorenzo Gagli had produced 2 good rounds from 4 at the Tshwane Open and Qatar Master on his last 2 starts at a higher level; similarly Aaron Rai had finished 7^th at the Joburg Open on his previous start, before dropping down a level to win.

For completeness, since the Kenya Open joined the main Tour, the incoming form of the winners – including the Kenya Savannah Classic – is as follows:

2021, Daniel Van Tonder: 1/10/1/1/28/1/76/39/MC/71/2/MC
2021, Justin Harding: MC/11/MC/MC/30/38/MC/48/62/27/41/MC
2019, Guido Migliozzi: MC/MC/MC/MC/1/MC/MC/56/MC/MC/63/MC

Of course these results are from Karen Country Club and should be considered accordingly.

Course Form: The course form of the last 8 winners here at Muthaiga is as follows:

2024, Darius van Driel: 12/MC/11
2023, Jorge Campillo: 31/13
2022, Ashun Wu: Debut
2018, Lorenzo Gagli: 16
2017, Aaron Rai: Debut
2012, Seve Benson: Debut
2011, Michiel Bothma: MC/10
2010, Robert Dinwiddie: Debut
2009, Gary Boyd: Debut

Given the vagaries of this event over the years, course history for our winners is patchy; however of the four victors to have played the course before, all of them had recorded a top-16 finish on their previous attempt.

For me, players with a preference for short courses and/or those with altitude impacting the ball flight is a positive; likewise those who have shown an ability to perform on quicker Bentgrass greens in the past should enjoy this setup.

My Final Magical Kenya Open Tips Are As Follows:

Joe Dean 2.5pts EW 25/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

It was this event last year that Joe Dean announced himself so dramatically to the golfing world – 12 months on I fancy that he could go one better than last year’s runner-up finish to Darius van Driel and secure his maiden DP World Tour title.

The back story with Dean in well-versed – a former Morrison’s delivery driver who won his card through Q-School at the end of 2023 but had to wait until the following year before he had enough funds to give the Tour a proper go. A missed cut at the Qatar Masters was then followed by his near miss here when he seriously threatened to win the title at a widely available 1000/1 pre-event price.

A year on the 30 year-old has banked well over €1m in prize money, making it all the way to the DP World Tour Championship on his rookie season, and following up his effort here with a play-off defeat to Guido Migliozzi in the Netherlands as well as three further top-5 finishes, the most recent of which was last month in Ras al Khaimah. That’s an incredible turnaround in his life as well as his career, and now that he’s seeing venues for a second time who’s to say he won’t push on further still in 2025.

13^th last time out in Bahrain saw the Sheffield man rank 5^th for SG Approach and 3^rd for SG Tee to Green whilst scrambling at 80%, which was 3^rd in the field on that count. That’s a full house in terms of what I’m looking for here and Joe has to be backed accordingly now that he returns to a course that he clearly gets on with.

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Brandon Robinson-Thompson 1.5pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

The last two events on the DP World Tour should act as a good barometer for this week’s task, despite us moving continent from Asia to Africa. Wining scores of 14- and 16-under in Bahrain and Qatar respectively are great markers for a Muthaiga course which consistently produces a similar winning total, and those players who performed well over the past two events may well find this to their liking too after a week’s break.

Of those who boast some of the strongest form across those two events, my preference is to back Brandon Robinson-Thompson and Martin Couvra, who I’ll get to shortly.

Firstly though, the Isle of Wight’s Robinson-Thompson is simply demanding to be backed after finishes of 8^th in Bahrain, where he was Strokes Gained positive on every metric, and 3^rd in Qatar where his statistics were even more impressive, leading the field for both GIR and SG Tee to Green as well as ranking inside the top 10 for Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, SG Off the Tee, SG Approach and SG Around the Green. Any kind of spark with the putter – which we’ve seen him do when gaining more than a shot per round with the putter in the Czech Republic, Denmark and Switzerland last year – and he’s got to go close here.

This will be the 32 year-old’s debut in Kenya, however that’s not stopped a number of players from contending and ultimately winning around these parts in the past, and with his game in superb shape I see no reason to oppose the Englishman here who’s won 7 times at lower levels already in his career.

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Martin Couvra 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

The other player with standout form in both Bahrain and Qatar who I fancy to go well this week too is Martin Couvra.

Finishing one spot ahead of the aforementioned Brandon Robinson-Thompson in last year’s Challenge Tour Road to Mallorca rankings meant that the 21 year-old gained his playing rights for 2025 on the DP World Tour and he’s taken to this level like a duck to water, finishing 7^th at Leopard Creek in December before rattling off successive top-5 finishes in the Middle East at the start of this month.

The Frenchman will of course be making his debut here this week, however as per my assertion with Robinson-Thompson, that’s not a deal-breaker for me by any stretch and there’s plenty to suggest that he can go well in the continent of Africa from his amateur days. Couvra became the first European to win all three of South Africa’s major amateur titles in 2023, a year which he also won on the Challenge Tour as an amateur too.

A field-leading 83.3% for Scrambling last time out in Qatar was the stat that really caught my eye given that recent winners here at DP World Tour level have all performed very well in that department on the week. That translated to 3^rd for SG Around the Green in Doha, backed up 7^th for SG Putting, and Martin must be approaching this week in confident mood.

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Brandon Wu 1pt EW 66/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally I’ll take a chance on America’s Brandon Wu who continues to take advantage of category 12 qualification which gives a limited number of starts each week to players who missed out on their PGA Tour card last year.

41^st in Ras al Khaimah, 55^th in Bahrain and 25^th in Qatar all came on exposed desert tracks where he lost strokes off the tee to his competitors, which is no massive surprise given that he’s generally a sub-290 yard driver and those courses tend to favour those players who are a little more aggressive from off the tee.

The altitude here at Muthaiga brings this 7,208 yard course down to size for a player like Wu and we’ve seen from the like of recent winners Ashun Wu (no relation) and Darius van Driel that power is largely negated here. Instead the 28 year-old’s short game can shine around these parts, having excelled on that count of late ranking 5^th and 8^th for SG Around The Green on his last two starts.

Levels are always tricky to judge in golf, however in Wu we have a player who finished 13^th at the Procore Championship, 30^th at the WWT Championship and 23^rd at the Bermuda Championship in the Fall segment of the 2024 PGA Tour season, and who also finished runner-up at that level in 2022 and 2023. This is a weak renewal of the Kenya Open and that might just allow a player like Brandon to excel this week.

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