Mallorca Golf Open Tips 2022

Rasmus Hojgaard heads the betting this week, and justifiably so given his 2^nd place finish at Le Golf National recently and 5^th place last week, however the promise of easier scoring conditions leads me to take a chance on Andy Sullivan who also impressed in Andalucia last week.

11^th place overall last week was a personal best for the 35 year-old around the claustrophobic confines of Valderrama, and he was understandably upbeat on social media, having ranked 5^th for both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green over the course of the four days.

For me, the 4-time DP World Tour winner is a much better prospect on lower-scoring tracks – his last 2 wins coming at 23- and 27-under par are testament to that – and although I don’t expect us to get close to that kind of scoring level this week, it will undoubtedly be much easier than last week’s test. Those two wins came by a combined 16 strokes over his nearest opponent, so perhaps seeing such a dominant display by Adrian Otaegui last week will also rekindle that winning feeling from when he lapped those aforementioned fields.

All 4 of his wins, at the 2015 SA Open, 2015 Joburg Open, 2015 Portugal Masters and 2020 Hero Open, carry some relevance to this week, be that with their agronomy or topography (or both), and this relatively short, parkland track with Bentgrass greens should be right in Andy’s wheelhouse.

5^th at Munchen Eichenried last year is the Nuneaton man’s best result on a Kurt Rossknecht design over the years, and after a slow start to 2022 Andy will be looking to capitalise on some far stronger results since the end of July, including 8^th at Hillside and 3^rd at Celtic Manor, prior to last week’s effort.

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Knowing when to pull the trigger and back Nicolai Hojgaard isn’t an exact science – what is in this game? – however we know that the 21 year-old, like his twin, has more than a touch of class about him, and on a course where the playing field has been levelled experience-wise, he’s worth supporting this week in my view.

His brother Rasmus heads the betting this week after a 5^th place finish at Valderrama and still holds the bragging rights in the Hojgaard house with three DP World Tour titles to Nicolai’s two, yet there were enough positives in the latter’s 37^th place finish in Andalucia last week to suggest he can push on from here.

What’s clear from the titles that the brothers have accumulated thus far in their short careers is that both are incredibly capable players, yet Rasmus is a little more controlled balanced by Nicolai’s aggression, and to that end last week would have suited Rasmus better. A slightly more free-scoring week is expected this week, and with 3 reachable Par-5s and a string of short Par-4s on the card, I can see the tables being turned in Mallorca, despite what the bookmakers think.

1^st for SG Off the Tee last week at Valderrama was the first time that Nicolai has topped that category since winning the Ras al Khaimah Championship in February, and that makes him very dangerous on a course like this if he’s both finding fairways and coming into greens with more lofted clubs than most of this field.

With his win at last year’s Italian Open, we’ve already seen Nicolai tame a parkland track with Bentgrass greens – at next year’s Ryder Cup venue no less – and he’ll undoubtedly be looking to get his own qualification campaign off to a winning start as soon as possible, and maybe as early as this week.

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Justin Walters finds himself in an unfamiliar position heading into the final few events of the season this year, with the requirement for late heroics to retain his playing privileges not required this year.

Vilamoura has twice been the venue for 11^th hour contending performances over the years that have saved the South African’s bacon, and he’ll have the Portugal Masters next week as a back-up should things not quite go to plan here in Mallorca, however the equation’s a little different in 2022.

3^rd at the British Masters, 8^th at the Made in Himmerland, and 4 further top-20 finishes over the course of the year have put the 41 year-old in 65^th place in the season-long rankings and in with a chance of making the finale at the Earth Course if he can find one more big performance this week or next. That would undoubtedly be a big deal for Walters who’s never made it that far, however the opportunity for him to do so this season is very real.

Missed cuts at the Dunhill Links and last week at Valderrama explain Justin’s price given the otherwise positive season that he’s had, however neither event overly suited his game as much as a short, more scoreable track like this, and my suspicion is that he’ll take to this course nicely on debut.

22^nd for the season for SG Tee to Green – up from 67^th in 2021 and 90^th the year before – is the main reason we’re seeing far better results from the Johannesburg man. 18^th for SG Approach and 22^nd for GIR are also impressive rankings for 2022, and the Bentgrass greens here should be right up his alley.

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Finally, with the regular DP World Tour season approaching its conclusion, and with the Nedbank Golf Challenge and the DP World Tour Championship both featuring very limited fields, Maverick Antcliff needs a big week here in Mallorca or next week in Portugal if he’s going to retain his DP World Tour card for 2023.

21^st last week at Valderrama showed some urgency and intent from his current predicament and the points accrued elevated the 29 year-old 19 spots in the season-long rankings to 157^th, however that needs to be improved on significantly this week and next.

That effort at the Andalucia Masters was a personal best and also his loftiest finish of the season to date, with a second round 68 and a closing 69 both amongst the best efforts in the field on those days respectively. A pair of 69s to open at the Spanish Open before that, plus a top-30 position to halfway at the Dunhill Links, suggests to me that he’s playing better golf than his headline results imply, and both his approach play and tee-to-green game has been impressive over that stretch from a Strokes Gained perspective,

4^th, 2^nd and 2^nd for SG Approach and 9^th, 15^th and 1^st for SG Tee to Green illustrates how his long game has fared of late, let down of course by a stone cold putter, That, though, isn’t unusual for the Queenslander, and even a flat week with the putter here in Mallorca would likely push him towards the each-way spots, everything else remaining equal.

A missed cut here on the island 12 months ago isn’t overly worrying given that we’ve moved locations for this year’s renewal; 3 efforts in the Canary Islands offer more promise though from earlier that year, with opening rounds of 66/63 in Gran Canaria putting him in 7^th before fading over the weekend, 42^nd the week after in Tenerife, then most notably 2^nd behind runaway winner Garrick Higgo at the end of that 3-week swing. If the 3-time China Tour winner can draw on that island form then he could significantly outperform his odds here this week.

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