Congratulations if you were on Emiliano Grillo at 80/1 (Monday price) last week at Colonial. Sam Burns delivered a full each-way payout for this column at 25/1, with Max Homa also chipping in a 20/1 part each-way payout. And to think we also had 66/1 chance Harris English, who decided to collapse completely on Sunday – definitely a case of what could have been!
On the PGA Tour very little has more credence than ‘Jack’s Tournament’. The Memorial Tournament, presented by Workday, is always a highlight of the PGA Tour and clearly gets designated status in 2023. Combine that with its reverence to the greatest Major Champion we have ever seen and the Memorial is a tournament they all want to win. A high class field is always guaranteed. With a couple of U.S. Open qualifiers in Ohio on Monday, this part of the mid-west United States is undoubtedly the epicentre of the golfing world this week.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the Memorial Tournament, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: Muirfield Village GC continually develops as a golfing test and 2023 sees a lengthened course at 7,571 yards, still as a Par 72 set-up. Yardage has been added to the par-3 16th – up to 220 yards – and to the par-4 17th – up to 503 yards. This track has always been a cracker and has hosted the 1987 Ryder Cup and the 2013 Presidents Cup and is an original Nicklaus design – Jack to this day oversees all recent course development personally. As you’d expect from the pen of an 18-time Major Champion, the format stretches the world’s very best via a combination of attributes: this classical design features tree-lined fairways, tough bunkering, 13 holes with water in play and over 80 acres of primarily Kentucky bluegrass rough which tends to be thick and lush. Severely undulating Bentgrass green complexes are a true work of art with 14 of them only seen in 2021.
Muirfield Village GC, Dublin, Ohio: Designer: Jack Nicklaus 1974, latest guise established 2021; Course Type: Classical, Up-State, Long; Par: 72; Length: 7,571 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 13; Fairways: Bentgrass; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with ryegrass/fescue 4″; Greens: 5,000 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 11ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 73.67 (+1.67), Difficulty Rank 6 of 49 courses. 2013: 73.26 (+1.26), Difficulty Rank 6 of 43 courses. 2014: 71.90 (-0.10), Rank 29 of 48 courses. 2015: 71.74 (-0.26), Difficulty Rank 23 of 52 courses. 2016: 70.99 (-1.01), Difficulty Rank 36 of 50 courses. 2017: 72.80 (+0.80), Difficulty Rank 13 of 50 courses. 2018: 71.40 (-0.60), Difficulty Rank 30 of 51 courses. 2019: 72.08 (+0.08), Difficulty Rank 13 of 49 courses. 2020 Workday: 71.85 (+0.15), Difficulty Rank 12 of 41 courses. 2020: 74.01 (+2.01), Difficulty Rank 2 of 41 courses. 2021: 72.97 (+0.97), Difficulty Rank 10 of 51 courses. 2022: 73.06 (+1.06), Difficulty Rank 8 of 50 courses.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Muirfield Village Golf Club and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:28; 325:24; 350:27.
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Jack Nicklaus designs include:
Annandale Golf Club – Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013
Glen Abbey – RBC Canadian Open – 2008, 2013, 2015-2018
Montreux Golf & Country Club – Barracuda Championship through 2019
Old Greenwood GC – Barracuda Championship 2020
PGA National – The Honda Classic
PGA West – Nicklaus Private – Humana Challenge through 2015
PGA West – Stadium Course – The American Express
Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – World Challenge through 2013 + 2020 ZOZO Championship
Valhalla Golf Club – 2014 PGA Championship
Course Overview: Muirfield Village has always been a great all-round classical golf test where both ball striking and short game experts can contend with equal frequency. A typical Nicklaus design, each hole gets more difficult further away from the tee so those with consistent approach play have always been able to access flatter parts of the green complexes close to hole locations. Birdies are available for those with excellent course navigation, top notch scrambling, and naturally a chance-converting putter. A second-shot golf course where those who can find the right layers of the green complexes can make birdies. Put conversely, this classical design still has teeth for the wayward, poor scramblers and poor putters.
Muirfield Village in 2021 also looked significantly different and as ever there was a certainly level of disquiet from players who did not like the tough set-up. This quote from Jack Nicklaus himself, highlights the key focus of the 2020 renovation and how Muirfield Village will continue ongoing, to be prepared for his tournament. “My belief is that tournament golf should be a test to find out who is the best golfer that week. Far too many tournaments have eliminated the rough and firmness of greens, and that is just not my idea of what the game of golf should be. So I am going to stick with my old-fashioned beliefs about how the game of golf should be played and the way golf courses should be set up. The whole gamut of all shots is what the game of golf is all about. The game should challenge every facet of every club in the bag.”
Statistically the Muirfield Village course plays to 7,571 yards, up approaching 200 yards from the pre-2021 set-up. Most of that length has been added to the par-5s with new tee boxes adding 20 – 30 yards to each. The par-4 1st Hole also had a new tee box added, taking that to 490 yards.
A summary of the renovation includes the fact that all greens were reconstructed with new Bentgrass, irrigation and Sub-Air systems. Most holes had their green complexes 100% re-contoured and rebuilt with significant bunker modifications. Fairway widths, which have always been generous here, were also been pinched on certain holes – at around 310 yards – with all fairways featuring fresh Bentgrass fairway grass and associated Bluegrass/Ryegrass/Fescue rough.
Only green complexes on the 12th, 13th, 14th and 17th resemble the old design. All fairway and greenside bunkers were rebuilt, with fairway bunkers on the 1st, 15th and 17th strategically repositioned.
The biggest differences post-renovation were on the par-5s which used to play relatively short. New tee boxes were added to all 4 of them adding 100 yards to the scorecard. Number 5 was rebuilt in entirety from tee to green with new fairway bunkers and extensive grade changes to the second and third shot landing zones, plus a water hazard placed in front of an entirely new green.
Player feedback has been that the course plays harder. The rough is thicker than before and many have talked about how the risk/reward element and how it has turned towards laying-up rather than Going for the Green.
Memorial Tournament Winners: 2022: Billy Horschel (-13); 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-13); 2020: Jon Rahm (-9); 2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19); 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15); 2017: Jason Dufner (-13); 2016: William McGirt (-15); 2015: David Lingmerth (-15); 2014: Hideki Matsuyama (-13); 2013: Matt Kuchar (-12); 2012: Tiger Woods (-8); 2011: Steve Stricker (-16); 2010: Justin Rose (-18).
2022: Billy Horschel 70-68-65-72 -13/275 AM/PM Wave
2021: Patrick Cantlay 69-67-68-71 -13/275 PM/AM Wave
2020: Jon Rahm 69-67-68-75 -9/279 PM/AM Wave
2019: Patrick Cantlay 69-68-68-64 -19/269 PM/AM Wave
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm and Matt Kuchar.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
2022: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers. Wind NW 7-12 mph. High of 71. Friday: Sunny. High of 76. Wind WNW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind NE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 81. Wind S 8-13 mph.
2021: Thursday: Cloudy with rain. High of 72. Wind SW 10-15 mph. Play was suspended and officials decided to cease play for the day at 6:41 p.m. The morning wave of 60 players completed the round. No player of the 60 in the afternoon wave completed the round. A total of 0.95” rainfall was recorded Thursday. Friday: Cloudy, with a high of 81. Wind WSW 8-13 mph. Early-morning fog delayed the scheduled 7:30 a.m. first-round resumption until 7:53 a.m. The first round was completed at 12:40 p.m. Saturday: R2 Mostly sunny. High of 86. Wind SW 12-16 mph. Round two resumed at 8 a.m. and concluded at 9:54 a.m. R3 Mostly sunny. High of 86. Wind SW 12-16 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with brief afternoon showers. High of 89. Wind SSW 10-15 mph. The final two pairings were held in place from 5:46-5:51 p.m. for a heavy rain shower.
2020: Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with light rain in the morning. High of 90. Wind SW 15-25 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind W 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 93. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny with intermittent showers. High of 96. Wind SW 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Due to a dangerous weather situation, play was suspended at 3:41 p.m. and resumed at 4:30 p.m. (49-minute delay).
2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High of 72. Wind SW 10-20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind WSW 10-18 mph. Sunday: Cloudy. High of 70. Wind NW 12-22 mph.
2018: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SW 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Friday: Overcast with scattered showers and an afternoon thunderstorm which caused a 1 hour, 28-minute delay. High of mid-80s. Wind WNW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind N 10-15 mph. Sunday: Cloudy. High of 81. Wind W 10-15 mph, with gusts of 25 mph.
2017: Thursday: Mostly sunny skies in the morning became partly cloudy in the afternoon with a high of 77. Wind W 8-16 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 80. Wind WNW 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with a high of 84. Wind WNW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 85. Wind WSW 15-25 mph.
2016: Thursday: Mostly cloudy skies with a high of 82. Wind W at 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy skies with a high of 82. Wind N/NW at 8-12 mph. Saturday: Cloudy skies and periods of light rain with a high in the mid-70s. Wind S/SE at 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 79. Wind W/SW at 15-25 mph.
2015: Weather: Thursday: Cloudy, but drier in the afternoon, with highs reaching only into the lower 60s. North wind at 10-20 mph. A total of 1.3 inches of rain fell overnight and into the morning. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 76, with N wind at 7-12 mph. Saturday: Overcast, with a high of 76. Wind SE at 15-25 mph. Sunday: Due to the likeliness of inclement weather, final-round tee times were between 7-9 a.m. Cloudy with rain most of the day and a high of 79. Wind SSW at 10-20 mph.
Weather Forecast: latest weather forecast for Dublin, Ohio is here.
Forecasts suggest very similar conditions to what we saw in Fort Worth, Texas last week. 26-30 degrees Celsius (79 – 86 Fahrenheit) will be in-play, with wind looking pretty limited to gusts of sub-15mph throughout. Ideal scoring conditions in reality. The interesting angle this week is the fact that the course hasn’t received any rain for over a week beforehand, and with the likelihood of rain during tournament week being virtually zero, the only moisture being applied to the course will be dictated by Director of Grounds Chad Mark, at the behest of Jack Nicklaus himself. I’d expect some firmness and green release.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to The Masters which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Patrick Cantlay; 3) Jon Rahm; 4) Byeong Hun An / Cam Davis; 6) Viktor Hovland; 7) Garrick Higgo / Gary Woodland; 9) Nicolai Hojgaard / Xander Schauffele; 11) Corey Conners; 12) Austin Eckroat / Cameron Young; 14) Shane Lowry; 15) Sungjae Im; 16) Joseph Bramlett; 17) Hayden Buckley; 18) Lucas Herbert / S.H. Kim; 20) Luke List; 21) Rory McIlroy; 22) Tyrrell Hatton / Adam Scott; 24) Keegan Bradley; 25) Will Gordon / Lee Hodges.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Sam Bennett; 3) Hideki Matsuyama; 4) Xander Schauffele; 5) Collin Morikawa; 6) Jon Rahm; 7) Mark Hubbard; 8) Russell Henley; 9) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 10) Wyndham Clark; 11) Emiliano Grillo; 12) Corey Conners / Tom Kim; 14) Gary Woodland; 15) Ryan Fox / Lucas Glover; 17) Patrick Cantlay / Austin Eckroat / Matt Fitzpatrick; 20) Shane Lowry; 21) Eric Cole; 22) Alex Smalley / Kevin Streelman; 24) Tyrrell Hatton / Andrew Putnam.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Hideki Matsuyama; 2) Peter Malnati / Brendon Todd; 4) Eric Cole / Matt Kuchar; 6) Tyrrell Hatton / Beau Hossler; 8) Scottie Scheffler; 9) Keegan Bradley / Sam Bennett; 11) Davis Thompson; 12) Mackenzie Hughes / Chris Kirk; 14) Kevin Streelman; 15) Alex Noren; 16) Rickie Fowler; 17) Taylor Montgomery; 18) Stewart Cink / Harris English; 20) Francesco Molinari; 21) Byeong Hun An / Sungjae Im / Xander Schauffele; 24) Adam Scott; 25) Jason Day.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Xander Schauffele; 3) Hideki Matsuyama; 4) Jon Rahm; 5) Patrick Cantlay; 6) Sam Bennett; 7) Tyrrell Hatton; 8) Rickie Fowler / Russell Henley / Viktor Hovland / Collin Morikawa; 12) Byeong Hun An; 13) Eric Cole; 14) Austin Eckroat; 15) Ryan Fox; 16) Corey Conners / Adam Scott / Kevin Streelman; 19) Matt Fitzpatrick / Shane Lowry / Gary Woodland; 22) Chris Kirk / Si Woo Kim; 24) Joseph Bramlett / Emiliano Grillo / Tom Kim.
Top 25 SG Putting: Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Justin Suh; 2) Denny McCarthy / Sahith Theegala; 4) Chez Reavie; 5) Ryan Fox; 6) Emiliano Grillo; 7) Adam Scott; 8) Tyrrell Hatton; 9) Xander Schauffele; 10) Patrick Cantlay / Wyndham Clark; 12) Sam Bennett / Chad Ramey; 14) Billy Horschel; 15) Adam Long / William McGirt; 17) Thomas Detry / Adam Hadwin / Jon Rahm; 20) Matt Fitzpatrick; 21) Hayden Buckley / Keith Mitchell; 23) Keegan Bradley / Francesco Molinari; 25) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Patrick Rodgers / Adam Svensson.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Xander Schauffele; 3) Patrick Cantlay; 4) Tyrrell Hatton; 5) Sam Bennett; 6) Jon Rahm; 7) Adam Scott; 8) Ryan Fox / Hideki Matsuyama; 10) Rickie Fowler; 11) Russell Henley; 12) Matt Fitzpatrick / Nicolai Hojgaard; 14) Emiliano Grillo / Viktor Hovland / Denny McCarthy; 17) Corey Conners; 18) Kevin Streelman / Sahith Theegala; 20) Keegan Bradley; 21) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Joseph Bramlett / K.H. Lee; 24) Hayden Buckley / Wyndham Clark / Eric Cole / Rory McIlroy.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Muirfield Village since 2016 click here
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Memorial Tournament winners here at Muirfield Village since 2021 (course re-design) gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2022, Billy Horschel (-13). SG Off the Tee: 7th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 13th.
2021, Patrick Cantlay (-13). SG Off the Tee: 3rd, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 19th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 16th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Memorial Tournament winners here since 2021 (course re-design) gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:
2022, Billy Horschel (-13). 285 yards (59th), 76.8% fairways (7th), 73.6% greens in regulation (1st), 29’4″ proximity to hole (1st), 84.2 % scrambling (1st), 1.74 putts per GIR (43rd).
2021, Patrick Cantlay (-13). 303 yards (8th), 66.1% fairways (28th), 75.0% greens in regulation (1st), 31’8″ proximity to hole (16th), 66.7 % scrambling (6th), 1.67 putts per GIR (20th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 34th, Driving Accuracy: 18th, Greens in Regulation: 1st, Proximity to Hole: 9th, Scrambling: 4th, Putting Average 32nd.
Let’s take a view from players as to how Muirfield Village Golf Club sets up and what skill sets the course favours – comments from 2021 onwards refer to the renovated course they play this week:
Billy Horschel (2022): “Hopefully the greens firm up a little bit, get a little bit quicker. Tuesday were probably the firmest I’ve ever seen them. But I think the fairways are pretty generous around here. Some of the widest fairways we played all year. Putting the ball in the fairway is crucial, to start with. But having control of your second shot, it’s a very second-shot golf course in my opinion.“
“I think it just goes back to understanding what’s a good golf shot, understanding where you need to miss it on this golf course to have a chance to get up-and-down. Yeah, I’ve put myself probably in a couple bad spots over the last two days, but I’ve been fortunate that I’ve hit really good shots and made a putt. With the firmer greens you have to be really precise on where you’re trying to land the golf shot, the trajectory you’re trying to hit it, the shape you’re trying to hit it. We’ve just been very clear on all of that.”
“And on 15, I was 5-wood in there, perfect 5-wood, 241 front, 244 or five hole. And we had the wind slight in off the left which was perfect for me, just started in the middle of the bunker and hit a little bit of a cut, let the wind take it back to the pin. It was just a beautiful shot that I hit.”
Aaron Wise (2022): “Felt like about as good as I could shoot with how I drove the ball, so I’m super pleased with it. The course is firming up. It’s playing tricky. I felt like I hit my irons great, chipped and putted great. The one thing I could clean up is how I drove the ball today.This is a course I feel like you can kind of attack a little bit if you’re in the fairway. But if you’re in the rough you’re scrambling from everywhere. You can’t hold these greens with how firm they are and it becomes a really tricky golf course to play. I felt like I did that a lot of today, and somehow was able to putt really well and chip really well and shoot 3-under. But I would love to be able to put the ball in the fairway and get a few more looks at birdie tomorrow.”
Rory McIlroy (2022): “Yeah, I think like Muirfield and I have had a bit of a complicated relationship. It seemed to fit me quite well earlier in my career and then the last few years, I’ve sort of maybe struggled with the strategy of how to play it. I feel like a lot of the fairways here pinch in around 310, so it allows the sort of average hitters to hit driver.”
“For an example, last year I played with Viktor Hovland the first two days, and the first hole, he can hit driver sort of right to where the bottleneck starts. I can’t hit driver because I’ll hit it too far but then I hit 3-wood, you know, 15 or 20 yards short of his driver. So I’m hitting 6-iron or 7-iron in and he’s hitting an 8-iron or a 9-iron in.”
“So it just seems like the length advantage has sort of been nullified here over the last few years. So it’s just finding a different way to play the golf course. A lot more 3-woods. I’ve actually went to one of my old 3-woods this week that’s a lower lofted. It’s sort of like a 2-wood in a way which I think will be good to utilize this week.”
Patrick Cantlay (2021): ” I never changed my mind. I was 268 or 270 front. It’s all cover over water and it’s into the wind. So even my best 3-wood is about 270 and that’s not into the wind or anything. So with the new length on all these par-5s, it’s a lot of laying up. I’ve never laid up as much this week around this golf course on the par-5s by a long ways. So the par-5s are playing a lot more difficult and I think that’s why scoring’s worse this year compared to previous years. Especially considering how this golf course in the past has played. But that’s just the way it is now and I’m sure if the fairways firm out a little bit you will be able to hit the ball a little further and maybe get to some of the par-5s.
Rory McIlroy (2021): “No, it’s the redesign of the holes. Especially the par-5 5th green, I went for it today and hit a pretty good shot, but even, I hit a great shot straight over the pin into the back bunker and, I mean, you would rather be 90 yards away hitting a sort of a nice wedge shot in there, you can get it way closer. So I think people are just realizing it’s, you’re probably more likely to make birdie just by laying up and, which is a shame, because it’s sort of exciting to get to go for par-5s and it’s sort of taken that a little bit out of play.”
“As it fries out, it will make people even more wary of going for the par-5s in two. Like I went for one par-5 today and made 6 and laid up on the others and had birdie chances. I’ve made more birdies this week by laying up than I have going for the green.”
“I think what’s happened here is everyone is just now playing from the same spot with their second shot, so it’s really become, and it’s not an easy driving golf course by any means, but everyone is hitting to the same spot. So I guess there’s no different strategies off the tee, it’s just sort of everyone goes and does this and then they go from there. So it’s sort of hard for, you look how condensed the field is, it’s hard to separate yourself when a design is like that.”
Jon Rahm (2020): “Well, this is only the second time I’m playing. My first time was 2017. I don’t remember it being this windy or firm. It’s tough. I mean, there are some holes out there that are really difficult. That 16th green, I actually thought I hit a pretty good shot and couldn’t stop it, so you have to hit an amazing shot to actually keep it on the green. It’s a test out there. It’s more how golf should be. I’m glad for once we’re not having a week where it becomes a putting contest and see who shoots 20-plus under par. Hopefully it keeps being a test and hopefully I can keep playing good golf and make those clutch putts.
I told Adam walking down 18, I said, they should — Adam, my caddie, for people who don’t know, they should just allow people, whoever wants to play, to come tomorrow in the same conditions we did. Cut the greens, make sure they’re the same speed, flags on the same spots, just for people to see. We were thinking the club champion, the scratch club champion might not break 80 here today. It’s that difficult a golf course. And I can say, because of that, today could be one of the best rounds of golf I’ve played in my life. It’s unbelievable, and it’s hard to believe how passively it came compared to how I played usually.”
Patrick Cantlay (2019): “I like this golf course a lot. It’s in great shape. And puts a serious premium of driving the ball in the fairway, which is one of my strengths. I feel comfortable around here, and it’s nice to be here. I feel like I know the lines and what to expect. The golf course suits my game. There’s a huge premium on driving the golf ball long in the fairway. And if you can control your distance coming into the greens, you can have a lot of looks. The greens are really slopey, and there’s a lot of hole locations where the ball gathers to the hole. And being able to know your distance and knowing where to leave it so it will feed to the hole is important. And I feel like being back here my third year I’m getting a better feel of it. And I’m starting to feel really comfortable around the golf course.”
Bryson DeChambeau (2018): ” Yeah, I played really well here (Columbus, Ohio). I love the grass. It’s super familiar. Back home in Fresno, California we have the same type of grass, relatively speaking. You go over to Monterey, it’s kind of the same as well. So I’ve played a lot of golf over there, I’m just comfortable with these types of, this type of grass. For whatever reason it seems to be that, out of this grass relative to Bermuda, it’s just way easier to kind of control the ball out of those types of lies, because in Bermuda you can sometimes get these massive jumpers, like incredibly massive, 30-yard jumpers. And out of this type of rough you only get about 15- to 20-yard jumpers. So in that regard I’m more comfortable and was just able to conquer it this week.”
Jason Dufner (2017): “This is a difficult golf course. The wind can be tricky at times. I’m hoping we’ll have some calmer conditions. But just being underneath the hole is a big thing out here. I find myself – when I play good rounds, I seem to be putting uphill all week. I’m struggling from above the hole. So position into the greens is important. Yeah, these are by far probably the best greens that we play on all year, from the standpoint of consistency on speed from green to green. When I step on 7th green I feel like it’s the same speed as the 14th green or the 17th green. And then also just the consistency of the roll, like you said. You feel like you get a really pure roll. If you start in on your line and your read is right you’re probably going to be holing a lot of putts. And I think they get as fast as any that we play. There’s a lot of pitch, a lot of undulation out there on these greens. You get above the hole you’re just breathing on them when they’re moving pretty good.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Memorial Tournament since 2010:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the Memorial Tournament winners since 2010 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
8 – Rory McIlroy.
5 – Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas.
4 – Hideki Matsuyama.
3 – Keegan Bradley, Lucas Glover, Matt Kuchar, Francesco Molinari, Adam Scott.
2 – Stewart Cink, Jason Dufner, Rickie Fowler, Brian Harman, Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk, K.H. Lee, Troy Merritt, Xander Schauffele, Brandt Snedeker.
1 – Sam Burns, Luke Donald, Dylan Frittelli, Emiliano Grillo, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Kevin Kisner, David Lingmerth, Trey Mullinax, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Jon Rahm, Chez Reavie, Scott Stallings, Brendon Todd, Danny Willett.
The winner’s list over the past 8 years at the Memorial Tournament reads David Lingmerth (500/1), William McGirt (200/1) Jason Dufner (66/1), Bryson DeChambeau (50/1), Patrick Cantlay (18/1), Jon Rahm (22/1), Patrick Cantlay (22/1) and Billy Horschel (60/1). And with the U.S. Open just 2 weeks away, the top players are positioning themselves for the season’s third Major Championship in Dublin, Ohio this week, just as they always have way before the notion of a designated event.
The Memorial is often a tournament where you don’t want to hit the front too early, but undoubtedly quality players have generally topped the leaderboard come close of play on Sunday. Tiger’s wins in 2009 and 2012 came at 3/1 and 16/1 respectively. Justin Rose’s first PGA Tour victory in 2010 came at 80/1 a fortnight after a 10th place finish at Wentworth. Steve Stricker won at 28/1 in 2011. Matt Kuchar and Hideki Matsuyama victories here in 2013 and 2014 both followed contending performances the week prior at Colonial, with both players being priced at 22/1 and 66/1 respectively.
Since 2018, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay and Billy Horschel have won this coveted title at 50/1, 18/1, 22/1, 22/1 and 60/1 respectively. For DeChambeau (2018) and Cantlay (2019) these were breakout victories, after previously landing their maiden PGA Tour titles at lesser events. Rahm’s victory in 2020 was also arguably his biggest career victory to that point, and was his first singles win on the PGA Tour for 2 and a half years. He would have defended his title in 2021 as well if it wasn’t for a positive Covid test when he was 6 shots ahead heading into Sunday. Step forward Patrick Cantlay who got to shake hands with Jack Nicklaus for the second time in 2 years. Last year saw Billy Horschel come from the blindside to win at 60/1 with inbound form of MC-68-2(Team Event)-21-43 and nothing better than a backdoor 9th (2019) from 8 previous Memorial outings.
All-in-all this plethora of sub-100/1 winners is hardly a surprise when you consider that every winner of The Memorial since 2003 apart from 2 (Lingmerth 2015 & McGirt 2016) have ranked in the Official World Golf Ranking top 75. Let’s look into those bigger price wins as well.
Nicklaus course specialist David Lingmerth landed his maiden title here in 2015 with inbound form of MC-33-MC-MC-MC. You won’t be surprised to read that the Swede was a 500/1 chance. Fast-forward to 2016 where Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Matt Kuchar and Gary Woodland were all in the mix, but eventually it became a shoot-out between Jon Curran (400/1) and William McGirt (250/1) in a playoff, both of whom were chasing maiden PGA Tour titles. World Number 102 McGirt captured his first title since he played the Tarheel Tour in 2007, coming off immediate form of 47-43-17-37. He had though delivered 3 top-9 finishes and a further 2nd in the season prior to winning in Ohio.
2017 saw World Number 65 Jason Dufner beat Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar and Justin Thomas to take his 5th PGA Tour victory at 66/1. Jason showed grit and resolve on a fast Sunday golf course, taking on the likes of 54-hole leader Kuchar, Bubba Watson, Thomas and playing partner Rickie Fowler to comfortably win in the end by 3 shots.
My Memorial Tournament Tips Are As Follows:
Xander Schauffele 2.25pts ew 14/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Coral
A fairly obvious first selection in the form of Xander Schauffele. A Quarter Finalist at the WGC Dell World Match Play, 10th at Augusta, 4th at Harbour Town, 4th at the pairs-event (with Patrick Cantlay) in New Orleans and 2nd at Quail Hollow, Xander pre-PGA Championship was playing very, very nicely. For Strokes Gained Current Form across the last 8 weeks in my Strokes Gained tracker apart from Scottie Scheffler you won’t find a better player, where he ranks 2nd for Tee to Green, 9th for Strokes Gained Putting and 2nd for Current Form.
He’s also seen this revised course twice, finishing 11th (2021) and 18th (2022), where he was 14th (2021) and 9th (2022) for Strokes Gained Tee to Green. 2021 saw him also top Greens in Regulation, Total Driving, Total Accuracy and Ball Striking. He clearly gets on well with the course. A non-winner in 2023, Xander has correlating course form to die for which includes an excellent record at East Lake – which ties in brilliantly with the last 4 winners here in the form of Cantlay (x2), Rahm and Horschel.
Never in the hunt last time out at the PGA Championship after a disastrous opening 9 holes, Xander arrives here a little more under the radar after an 18th place finish, which included a closing Sunday -3/67 which was T7 for the closing 18 holes RESULT: T24
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Tyrrell Hatton 1.5pts ew 28/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Making a correlating link between Muirfield Village and Wentworth seems to hold water to me. Billy Horschel won this last year and naturally won the 2021 BMW PGA Championship, whilst also finishing 4th (2019) and 9th (2022) when playing the West Course. Jon Rahm was also leading here on the renovated Nicklaus design by 6 shots after 54 holes in 2021, before he heard news of a positive Covid test and had to withdraw. His record at Wentworth reads 2nd (2019) and 2nd (2022) from his 2 visits to Surrey. After Rahm’s WD 2021 saw Branden Grace, Patrick Reed and Shane Lowry go onto fill the full each-way places. Linking those 3 to Wentworth is also pretty clear cut with Grace – 5th (2012), 9th (2017) and 5th (2018) – Reed – 4th (2019), 3rd (2020) and 5th (2022) – plus Lowry 4th (2011), 2nd (2014), 6th (2015) and 1st (2022); all enjoying success around the West Course.
That takes me onto Tyrrell Hatton – who has been playing some great stuff in 2023. 6th at the WM Phoenix Open, 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 2nd at the Players Championship, 3rd at the Wells Fargo Championship and 5th at the AT&T Byron Nelson, Hatton has been consistently at the top of designated leaderboards throughout the early part of this year. Still yet to really prove himself at Majors, 15th last time out at the PGA Championship was disappointing for his followers, especially as he shot 42 (+7) across his opening 9 holes on Thursday. To have such a poor start, extinguishing all hopes of victory, but still finish in the top 15, highlights how well the High Wycombe man played over the closing 54 holes. Indeed a -6/204 shot total was second only to Brooks Koepka.
The 2020 BMW PGA Championship winner at Wentworth, Hatton ranks 4th in this field for Strokes Gained Current Form across my 8-week trackers and despite only playing here once in 2019, where he finished 33rd, I think the new course changes actually play to his All Round game advantage. Unbelievably ranks 3rd for Strokes Gained Total and 5th for All Round on the PGA Tour season to date. RESULT: T12
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Shane Lowry 1.25pts ew 45/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
European Ryder Cup colleague Shane Lowry also makes very similar sense to Hatton based around that correlating Wentworth link, after all he is the reigning BMW PGA champion. Where Hatton has had an excellent 2023 to this point, the Florida-based Irishman has struggled for large parts, purely because of his putter. 180th for Strokes Gained Putting versus 18th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green tells you all you need to know about the 2019 Open champion and his season to date. Fascinatingly though there have been better signs of late. 16th at The Masters and 12th at the PGA Championship last time out, Shane’s other top finishes have been at the stern challenges that are Riviera (14th) and PGA National (4th).
6th and 32nd (19th going into Sunday) on this freshly installed Muirfield Village set-up, sterner, faster course conditions have always been Shane’s go to. And that take’s me back to Shane’s only victory in the United States, when he won the 2015 WGC Bridgestone Invitational. Played on the firm and releasing South Course at Firestone Country Club which is also in Ohio, Akron is only 120 miles north-east of this week’s venue, so we know that Lowry plays well in these conditions and on the agronomy. Ranks across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers in this field within the top 20 for both Approach and Tee to Green and the top 15 for Off the Tee. RESULT: T16
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Adam Scott 1pt ew 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Adam Scott has also been playing some very nice stuff of late. Ranking 7th in this field for Current Form across my 8-week trackers it’s a nice bonus to find him at a very backable each-way number. As prodigious as ever off the tee, Adam also ranks in the top 25 for Off the Tee and Around the Green, top 20 for Tee to Green, and the top 8 for Putting going back to The Masters. 5th at the designated Wells Fargo Championship at the start of May was his best finish in elite company, something he then followed up with 8th at the AT&T Byron Nelson and a very solid 29th place finish at the PGA Championship.
I’m never a lover of backing Scott at Majors – he hasn’t delivered a top 10 since the 2019 U.S. Open – but I’m still a believer that he can be competitive at the right, stretching, classical PGA Tour course. 4th (2006), 5th (2007), 13th (2013), 4th (2014), 2nd (2019) and 16th on this new layout in 2021, Scott has always held the Memorial Tournament in the very highest regard. Indeed I can remember vividly Adam coming home a very disappointed runner-up here to Patrick Cantlay (our selection that week) in 2019, despite shooting a Sunday -4/68.
With plenty of elite players either waning after a busy season, or focussing on tuning-up for the U.S. Open in a fortnight, I could see Scott going very well this week in Ohio, the state where he won the 2011 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. RESULT: T9
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Keegan Bradley 1pt ew 80/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
In Taylor Moore, Wyndham Clark and last week Emiliano Grillo, we have seen a couple of decent titles plus a designated event recently won by players in the 70/1 to 80/1 area of the betting. Sub 28/1 or below selections have still won 15 of 22 tournaments so far in 2023 on the PGA Tour, but having a mid-price you fancy is no bad move.
On that basis I like Keegan Bradley this week, who with his north-eastern United States background has always gone well “Up-State.” The winner of the 2018 BMW Championship played at Aronimink in Pennsylvania, 2nd at the 2019 Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands in Connecticut, plus 2nd at the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship played at TPC Potomac in Maryland. In summary tougher, classical, tree-lined tests featuring Bentgrass fairways, Kentucky Bluegrass rough and Bentgrass-based greens have always been a happy hunting ground. Even his win this season at the ZOZO Championship at Narashino Country Club in Japan last October featured Bentgrass greens.
So on the revised Muirfield Village par 72, which should play fairly tough with run on the fairways, tough Bluegrass rough and releasing putting surfaces, I think Keegan could well go very well, as he did in very similar conditions at Oak Hill a fortnight ago. Indeed Bradley was in the top 10 at 4 under par on Friday afternoon before the rain descended and he slipped back. 19th here after 54 holes last year ,before slipping to 37th, Keegan went on to finish 7th at the Brookline-hosted U.S. Open 2 weeks later, again highlighting his liking for the test ahead this week.
Ranks across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers in this field within the top 25 for both Off the Tee and Putting, the top 10 for Around the Green and the top 20 for Current Form. He also has a great record in the State of Ohio finishing 1st (2012), 2nd (2013) and 4th (2014) at Firestone South, plus 8th (2015) and 8th (2016) here at Muirfield Village. RESULT: T30
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