Congratulations if you were on-board the team of Nick Hardy and Davis Riley at 50/1 last week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.
Spain’s very own Jon Rahm won the very first Mexico Open at Vidanta last year, taking yet another Open title in a Spanish speaking country. He defends this week having just won the Green Jacket. This year features an increased $8.6m prize fund and 500 FedEx Cup points as this is a full PGA Tour status event with the winner getting an entry into the 2024 Masters, Sentry Tournament of Champions plus of course a 2-year exemption.
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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Mexico Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Guide: Vidanta Nuevo Vallarta is a golf destination in the town of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Set on the Pacific Coast, Grupo Salinas within their Vallarta resort complex have a number of golf courses, the newest of which is the Norman Signature Course.
Designed by Greg Norman and opened in 2015, it is only accessible via the world’s longest golf cart suspension bridge. Set within a kilometre of the Pacific shoreline, the course itself is set on the Ameca River, with a few holes running alongside, reminding me of Austin Country Club in that aspect. It’s not a coastal links by any means, but with strong winds in play it actually put up some reasonable defence in 2022. The course is flat with plenty of lakes and ponds forming hazards around the set-up for the errant.
Norman Signature Course, Vidanta Nuevo Vallarta, Puerto Vallarta, Mexico: Designer: Greg Norman, 2015; Course Type: Coastal, Mid-Score, Long; Par: 71; Length: 7,456 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 13; Fairways: Paspalum; Rough: Paspalum 2″; Greens: Paspalum; Tournament Stimp: 11-11.5 ft. 2022: 70.32 (-0.68), Difficulty Rank 24 of 50 courses.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Greg Norman designs include:
Earth Course – DP World Tour Championship (DP World Tour)
El Camaleon GC – Mayakoba Classic
TPC at Sugarloaf – 1997 – 2008 Classic
Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio – Valero Texas Open
Course Overview: This will be the second Mexico Open that has been “promoted” to the PGA Tour. The Mexico Open actually dates back to 1944 and is considered Mexico’s national championship. Grupo Salinas, who brought the WGC Mexico Championship to Chapultepec across 2017-2020, now finance and host the tournament at their Vidanta Nuevo Vallarta golf complex.
Set within a kilometre of the Pacific coastline, if you’re expecting a course with coastal vistas and holes that front onto the sea, well that isn’t the case. Built on flat land adjacent to the Ameca River to the north and an International airport to the south, the course is pretty unique in that no buildings or housing surround the property. Indeed access to the course is via a unique suspension bridge over the river.
The par-4 2nd and par-4 16th run alongside the Ameca, with the 6th green and 7th tee also in close proximity. Apart from that, the course is inland and features plenty of lakes meaning water is very much in play across the vast majority of holes. The volume of water actually reminds a little of a Florida-type golf course, although there are far more trees on the property than you would find at say PGA National. The topography, volume of water, Paspalum agronomy and length of the course also remind me of Grand Reserve Country Club where they play the Puerto Rico Open. Naturally with their shared designer and geographical location within Mexico, you can also see elements of El Camaleon where they play the Mayakoba Classic – that course though is over 400 yards shorter.
The Signature Course features very wide fairways, small bunkers, long waste areas, and Paspalum greens with plenty of subtle breaks and surrounded by tricky collection areas. As per any course located by the sea, scoring in the 2022 first renewal was dictated purely by wind strength, although saying that Tony Finau and Brandon Wu both shot -8/63s on a day when the wind was gusting over 30 mph.
For me the most fascinating aspect of the course as I alluded to above is its length. At 7,456 yards and a Par 71 it’s fairly long, especially at sea level. Temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius will negate that to a fair degree, but it’s worth noting that 2 of the par-5s are 603 (6th Hole) and 637 (12th Hole) yards, plus there are 4 par-4s around or slightly above 500 yards in length. This isn’t a standard Par 71 format either, with 5 par-3s and 4 par-5s, leaving 9 par-4s.
Distance off the tee undoubtedly paid huge dividends in the first renewal with 7 of the top 10 finishers all ranking in the top 16 for Driving Distance on the week.
Mexico Open Winners (2022 Played at Vidanta Vallarta): 2022: Jon Rahm (-17); 2021: Alvaro Ortiz (-23); 2019: Drew Nesbitt (-18); 2018: Austin Smotherman (-18); 2016: Sebastian Vasquez (-16); 2015: Justin Hueber (-23); 2014: Oscar David Alvarez (-17); 2013: Ted Purdy (-7); 2012: Lee Williams (-14); 2011: Erik Compton (-17); 2010: Jamie Lovemark (-12).
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Gary Woodland, Luke List, Byeong Hun An, Nicolai Hojgaard, Patrick Rodgers, Wyndham Clark, Ben Martin and Matt Wallace.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Mexico Open Winners & Prices: 2022: Rahm 5/1F.
Historical Weather:
2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 83. Wind SW 8-13 mph, increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 29 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 84. Wind SW 8-16 mph, increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 32 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 83. Wind SW 8-17 mph, increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 22 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 81. Wind SW 10-15 mph, increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 32 mph.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, is here.
As ever, hot and humid is the best way to describe the conditions this week in Mexico. With temperatures at 33-34 degrees Celsius (91-93 Fahrenheit) throughout, the players will welcome some breeze. Wind looks similar to last year, with limited wind early building up to south-westerly gusts to 20mph around lunchtime and into the afternoon. With no threat of rain I’d expect similar upper mid-score scoring levels.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Arnold Palmer Invitational which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Cody Gribble; 2) Gary Woodland; 3) Carl Yuan; 4) Cameron Percy; 5) Aaron Rai; 6) Cameron Champ; 7) Luke List / Ben Martin; 9) Michael Gligic / Scott Harrington; 11) M.J. Daffue / Jon Rahm; 13) James Hahn; 14) Lanto Griffin; 15) Garrick Higgo / Henrik Norlander / Carson Young; 18) Emiliano Grillo; 19) Lucas Glover / Taylor Pendrith; 21) Akshay Bhatia / Chez Reavie / Patrick Rodgers; 24) Doc Redman / Trevor Werbylo.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Tony Finau / Nicolai Hojgaard; 3) Sean O’Hair; 4) Kevin Chappell; 5) Ricky Barnes; 6) Wyndham Clark / Cody Gribble / Jon Rahm; 9) Andrew Putnam; 10) Michael Kim; 11) Ben Martin; 12) Aaron Rai / Erik van Rooyen; 14) Charley Hoffman / Cameron Percy; 16) Alex Noren; 17) Paul Haley II; 18) Callum Tarren; 19) Chez Reavie; 20) M.J. Daffue / Ryan Moore / Kevin Roy / Gary Woodland; 24) Francesco Molinari; 25) Will Gordon / Nate Lashley / Jimmy Walker.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Tano Goya; 2) Jonathan Byrd; 3) Trevor Werbylo; 4) Sean O’Hair; 5) Ricky Barnes; 6) Garrick Higgo; 7) Byeong Hun An; 8) Nicolai Hojgaard; 9) Ryan Armour / Aaron Baddeley; 11) Harry Hall / Alex Noren; 13) Scott Harrington; 14) Stephan Jaeger; 15) Brian Stuard; 16) Matt Wallace; 17) Jon Rahm; 18) Joseph Bramlett / Wesley Bryan; 20) Charley Hoffman / David Lipsky; 22) Max McGreevy; 23) J.B. Holmes / Patrick Rodgers; 25) Mark Hubbard / Dylan Wu.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Tony Finau; 2) Nicolai Hojgaard; 3) Wyndham Clark; 4) Kevin Chappell / Aaron Rai; 6) Sean O’Hair; 7) Tano Goya / Trevor Werbylo; 9) Jon Rahm; 10) Gary Woodland; 11) Byeong Hun An / Ben Martin; 13) Cody Gribble; 14) Augusto Nunez / Patrick Rodgers; 16) Emiliano Grillo; 17) Chez Reavie; 18) M.J. Daffue / Stephan Jaeger / S.H. Kim; 21) Garrick Higgo / Jimmy Walker / Matt Wallace; 24) Ryan Armour / Charley Hoffman / Dylan Wu.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Cody Gribble; 2) Cameron Percy; 3) M.J. Daffue; 4) Michael Kim; 5) Trevor Cone; 6) Patton Kizzire; 7) Andrew Novak; 8) Maverick McNealy / Sean O’Hair; 10) Harry Higgs; 11) Marty Dou; 12) Nicolai Hojgaard; 13) Wyndham Clark; 14) Jonathan Byrd; 15) Alex Noren; 16) Nico Echavarria; 17) Hank Lebioda; 18) Andrew Putnam / Jimmy Walker; 20) Harrison Endycott; 21) Emiliano Grillo / Patrick Rodgers / Brian Stuard; 24) Jon Rahm / Austin Smotherman / Nick Watney
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Bill Haas / Nicolai Hojgaard; 3) Wyndham Clark; 4) Cody Gribble; 5) Tony Finau; 6) Kevin Chappell; 7) Chris Stroud; 8) Michael Kim; 9) M.J. Daffue / Ben Martin / Jon Rahm; 12) Seung-yul Noh; 13) Sean O’Hair; 14) Aaron Rai; 15) Harry Hall; 16) Byeong Hun An / Geoff Ogilvy / Dylan Wu; 19) Greg Chalmers; 20) Tano Goya / Henrik Norlander; 22) Gary Woodland / Jimmy Walker; 24) Brent Grant / Emiliano Grillo.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Mexico Open winners gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2022, Jon Rahm (-17). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 30th, SG Around the Green: 22nd, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 18th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Mexico Open winners gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this Norman Signature Course:
2022, Jon Rahm (-17). 340 yards (1st), 69.2% fairways (15th), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 40’2″ proximity to hole (18th), 70.6 % scrambling (17th), 1.73 putts per GIR (32nd).
Let’s take a view from players as to how the Norman Signature Course sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Jon Rahm (2022 – Thursday): “Yeah, really comfortable off the tee. It’s not like it’s ever bad, but today felt especially comfortable. It’s not the most demanding golf course off the tee, right, besides 10 and maybe 1. You’re not really in real danger of being in bad position, but even though it’s generous, when I’m hitting shots the way with the trajectory and the ball flight that I wanted, it just gives me more confidence for every other shot. It’s a really good golf course. And the one thing to keep in mind for people watching the scores, there’s a big difference between morning and afternoon. We had no wind for 13, 14 holes, it’s very, very scoreable. Once the wind starts going 20, 30 miles an hour, this golf course starts showing some teeth. It’s long, you have a couple really long par 4s, 4 and 8 straight into the wind, both of them 500 yards, so you can start seeing higher scores out there.“
Jon Rahm (2022 – Friday): “Well, the wind makes it a completely different golf course. Yesterday, you know, except the last four holes or so, we enjoyed a wind-free day and you can be a little bit more aggressive with certain shots. Even with a couple longer irons, you’re just comfortable hitting it at the pin because those greens are receptive. On the other hand, today a couple of the par 5s were shorter, yes, but some holes were playing long, 10 was long, eight was long, nine and 13 were playing very, very difficult. You need to hit some quality shots on those holes. Sixteen and 17, you need to hit great shots to give yourself chances. And even 18, it is a par-5, but it’s not the easiest fairway to hit with that crosswind.”
Kurt Kitayama (2022 – Friday): “Not really. I just kind of stayed patient because I know I was able to make a lot of birdies yesterday so I figured I would be able to make a few more today, so just stayed patient. It happens. Especially 10’s such a hard starting hole and I had still a lot of par 5s coming in, so just kind of regrouped and stayed patient.I hit a couple 4 irons into 3 today and then 8, that was playing really long. I actually missed on 8, but I thought it was a really good 4-iron shot. I know on 3 I hit it to like 20 feet and that was really good.when you’re near the ocean, you get a lot of this grass, but everything’s like so purely conditioned and you don’t really get a bad lie out there, which is nice. Just a lot of like island golf, I guess.”
Jonathan Byrd (2022 – Thursday): “Well, I mean, for a guy who’s kind of, struggled with my tee ball a little bit over the years at times and when you’ve got so many tee shots where you can just let it go and swing as hard as you want, you start off on the first hole and it kind of puts a little pressure on you like you don’t want to mess up the first tee. So it was nice to hit the first fairway. But then the rest of the golf course, it kind of gives you plenty of room off the tee and the rough’s not bad, so it’s just kind of swing away.”
Alex Smalley (2022 – Friday):” It was hard, it certainly was. We were laughing about it. The par 5, I think it’s 605, 610 yards and I hit a really good drive, but I hit 5-iron into that green on my second shot. And then No. 8 was a par-4 and I had 3-wood in on my second shot. So some of the par 4s were certainly playing pretty long. That’s what happens when you have winds that are gusting 25, 20 or 25. I was able to keep the ball in play and was able to get out of those holes that were playing really long, and happy I’m done with them.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the RBC Heritage:
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Paspalum PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
2 – Ryan Moore.
1 – Scott Brown, Nico Echavarria, Tony Finau, Brice Garnett, Emiliano Grillo, Charley Hoffman, Patton Kizzire, Derek Lamely, George McNeill, D.A. Points, Jon Rahm, Martin Trainer, Matt Wallace.
We’ve only seen a single renewal here on the Norman Signature Course, so it’s dangerous to make a full view on what we witnessed. However the “grip and rip” style of golf was certainly viewable at the top of the leaderboard with 7 of the top 10 finishers all ranking in the top 16 for Driving Distance on the week.
Strokes Gained Ball Striking was the critical metric, with winner Jon Rahm ranking 6th and runners-up Finau, Wu and Kitayama also ranking 2nd, 3rd and 11th in that particular category.
World Number 2 (at the time) Jon Rahm, despite not being in the best of form was a class above, but a look at the placers showed undoubted links to Grand Reserve Country Club (Puerto Rico Open) Corales Golf Club (Corales Championship) and El Camaleon (Mayakoba Classic), which is hardly surprising given the coastal location, tropical climes and the Paspalum agronomy.
My Final Mexico Open Tips Are As Follows:
Gary Woodland 1.5pts EW 30/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Gary Woodland tops my Mexico squad.
The World Number 80 has been playing some decent stuff of late. 5 pay cheques from his last 6 outings highlight consistency, and within them 9th at the Genesis Invitational and 14th at The Masters are results that only the likes of the Rahm and Finau can dream of in this very weak field.
Across his last 5 made cuts, Gary has never been out of the top 20 for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, top 19 for Driving Distance, plus top 10 for both Total Driving and Ball Striking. That is high-level play. Mixing it in the top 10 all week at Augusta National really struck a chord with me for this Mexico Open, and 31st a fortnight ago at Harbour Town was his best career finish at the RBC Heritage. 19th and 11th for Strokes Gained Putting at Augusta and Harbour Town also gives credence to the fact that he’s feeling comfortable with the flat stick again.
Gary’s seaside CV highlights a player who can mix it on the United States coast. 2nd plus 7th at Kapalua (2019, 2020), 3rd, 6th and 7th at Waialae (2015, 2017, 2018), 5th plus 1st (2017 & 2019) at Pebble Beach, with 2nd at Liberty National (2013) – Gary has often been in contention on coastal assignments and naturally won his first Major on the South California coast. Plus he’s more than comfortable on Paspalum golf courses as 2nd (2013) and 2nd (2014) at TPC Kuala Lumpur, plus 2nd (2016) at Greg Norman’s El Camaleon highlight.
24th here last year with book-end 67s, he ranked 9th for Off the Tee and 6th for Tee to Green. With a decent Greg Norman design record – 2nd (2016) at El Camaleon, 6th (2021), 8th (2022) at TPC San Antonio – I really like the Kansas player’s chances this week. RESULT: T39
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Nicolai Hojgaard 1.5pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Nicolai Hojgaard is the sort of player who will love the Norman Signature Course here at Vidanta.
One of the most impressive drivers of the ball in world golf, Nicolai is plying his trade these days on the PGA Tour. 2nd at Corales, 28th at the Texas Open and 32nd last week at the Zurich Classic team event with Thorbjorn Olesen has been a decent start to his career state-side, but as ever for young professionals there are plenty of targets still to be attained – the speedier the better.
Hojgaard now has Special Temporary Membership of the PGA Tour and has the goal of earning enough non-member FedEx Cup points to equal or surpass 125th on the official FedEx Cup Eligibility Points List, which for 2023 extends through the schedule’s fall portion. He currently sits at an equivalent 118th. Add to that, at 122nd in the Official World Golf Ranking, a strong week in Mexico would likely see the 22 year-old qualify for the PGA Championship. So everything is set in front of the 2-time DP World Tour winner from a motivational perspective, and a look at his CV to date highlights a liking for courses that translate nicely.
His breakout 2nd at the 2019 KLM Open was at a faux-links near Amsterdam. 4th at the 2021 Canary Islands Championship was at the coastal, Paspalum-grassed course at Costa Adeje. And Nicolai’s second victory on the DP World Tour came at the 2022 Ras Al Khaimah Championship. That’s played on the Persian Gulf coast at Al Hamra Golf Club – a 7,400 yard, Par 72, again with Paspalum agronomy. The fact that Hojgaard finished 2nd at the Corales Championship just 5 weeks ago, again on a coastal, tropical, long, Paspalum-grassed, wind-affected golf course, makes the case that he should be perfectly suited to the assignment this week. RESULT: T33
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Nicolai Hojgaard and Garrick Higgo have crossed paths on the DP World Tour and I also like the South African on a course I think he’s going to like.
Ensconced in the top 22 of my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers for both Off the Tee and Tee to Green, the 23 year-old is in the last year of his 2-year exemption for winning the 2021 Palmetto Championship. Results have shown a marked improvement in 2023 after 3rd in the autumn at the Sanderson Farms Championship built solid foundations for the season as a whole. He’s made 8 of 10 cuts and has cashed pay cheques in 4 straight outings from the Players Championship onwards. Last time out, rounds of 66 (Friday) and 67 (Sunday) were excellent on a Harbour Town course which in my opinion is a little too tight for Garrick – he finished 48th.
The open expanses of the Norman Signature Course, plus the far larger green complexes, will be more to the South African’s liking this week in my opinion. Let’s not forget that Higgo back in 2021 on the DP World Tour landed both the Gran Canaria Open plus the Canary Islands Championship on 2 coastal courses – Meloneras Golf and Costa Adeje which both featured Paspalum greens. His Palmetto Championship win on the PGA Tour came at Congaree Golf Club, which is another, long, wide, open, golf course. The heat, humidity, breadth and length of this course should appeal, and it was interesting to note that the putter came out of “deep freeze” at the RBC Heritage last time where he ranked 6th for Strokes Gained Putting on the closing Sunday. RESULT: MC
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Akshay Bhatia, like Nicolai Hojgaard, is playing off Special Temporary Membership and naturally his aim is earning enough non-member FedEx Cup points to equal or surpass 125th on the official FedEx Cup Eligibility Points List, which for 2023 extends through the schedule’s fall portion. He currently sits at an equivalent 102nd, so starting his 28th PGA Tour event this week Bhatia therefore has plenty to play for in a weaker field event where so far this season he has thrived.
17th at the Bermuda Championship, 24th at the Corales Championship and most notably 2nd at the Puerto Rico Open, weak fields by the coast seem to bring the best out of the talented 21 year-old. Throw in 4th (Exuma Classic) plus 7th (Abaco Classic) earlier this year in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour and it’s possible to see that Akshay loves these tropical climes and Paspalum greens.
He can also shoot exceptionally low scores. 63 at the RSM Classic, 65 at the Honda Classic, 65 at the Puerto Rico Open and 63 at the Corales Championship. At an event this week where low scoring is more than possible, I’m pretty certain that Bhatia is going to love his first look at the Norman Signature Course.
Longish – 91st for Driving Distance – and straight – 56th for Driving Accuracy, it won’t surprise you to read that he ranks in he top 30 on Tour for Total Driving, and more encouragingly in the top 25 for Strokes Gained Off the Tee over the last 8 weeks in my tracker. Undoubtedly this week high level driving should unlock opportunities at the Mexico Open. RESULT: 4th
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Martin Trainer 0.5pt EW 200/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Martin Trainer is playing off a limited schedule this season, but on his rare appearances he’s been playing far better of late.
The sort who can go months without a made cut, Trainer from his last 6 PGA Tour starts has made 4 cuts, finishing 20th at Pebble Beach, 64th in Puerto Rico, 22nd in Corales and 9th last week in New Orleans with Chad Ramey as his partner. He’s also the sort who I like for this week: relatively long off the tee – 50th for Driving Distance – he also sits 40th for Birdie Average on the PGA Tour this season. With very wide fairways at Vidanta his misses off the tee will be less, and we know with the 32 year-old Frenchman that he goes well in Central America.
The 2018 El Bosque Mexico Championship winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, Martin went on to win the 2019 Puerto Rico Open. 7th (2022) and 22nd (2023) at the Corales Championship, Trainer loves these long, warm and gusty, Paspalum-grassed tropical assignments. 11th here 12 months ago arriving off form of MC-MC-MC, Trainer shot rounds of 65 (Friday) and 64 (Sunday) and was second only to Kurt Kitayama for Birdies made on the week (24). RESULT: MC
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Brent Grant 0.5pt EW 200/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Brent Grant is one that has to interest this week.
Since his promotion to the PGA Tour, 6 pay cheques have all come by the coast. 35th (13th after 54 holes) at Port Royal; 54th at Sea Island; 25th (4th after 36 holes) at Torrey Pines where he was First Round Leader; 20th (5th after 54 holes) at Pebble Beach; 40th in Puerto Rico; and 8th at Corales. Brent clearly feels very comfortable with the smell of sea salt in his nostrils.
A winner of the Simmons Bank Open (MiniVerde Ultradwarf Bermudagrass greens) on the Korn Ferry Tour last May, the 26 year-old who was born in Florida but raised in Hawaii, is not afraid to win. He’s also more than comfortable on Bermuda and Paspalum agronomy. 19th (8th after 54 holes) at the 2020 Great Exuma Classic played in the Bahamas again highlights a liking for this week’s agronomy, environment, and the fact he loves to play by the sea.
22nd for Driving Distance, 44th for Driving Distance All Drives, 21st for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 5th for Total Driving on the PGA Tour this season highlight a player whose more than comfortable “mashing it” off the tee – ideal for this golf course. RESULT: MC
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