Mexico Open At Vidanta Tips 2024

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Tony Finau won the Mexico Open at Vidanta last year, taking his first National Open title and his 6th PGA Tour win. He defends this week. This year features an $8.1m prize fund and 500 FedEx Cup points as this is a full PGA Tour status event with the winner getting an entry into the 2024 Masters, plus of course a 2-year exemption.

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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Mexico Open at Vidanta, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,300 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: Vidanta Nuevo Vallarta is a golf destination in the town of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Set on the Pacific Coast, Grupo Salinas within their Vallarta resort complex have a number of golf courses, the newest of which is the Norman Signature Course.

Designed by Greg Norman and opened in 2015, it’s only accessible via the world’s longest golf cart suspension bridge. Set within a kilometre of the Pacific shoreline, the course itself is set on the Ameca River, with a few holes running alongside, reminding me of WGC World Match Play host course Austin Country Club in that respect. It’s not a coastal links by any means as the course is flat, with plenty of lakes and ponds forming hazards around the set-up for the errant.

Norman Signature Course, Vidanta Nuevo Vallarta, Puerto Vallarta, Mexico: Designer: Greg Norman, 2015; Course Type: Coastal, Resort, Long; Par: 71; Length: 7,456 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 13; Fairways: Platinum Paspalum; Rough: Platinum Paspalum 2″; Greens: Platinum Paspalum; Tournament Stimp: 11-11.5 ft.

Course Scoring Average: 2022: 70.32 (-0.68), Difficulty Rank 24 of 50 courses. 2023: 70.10 (-0.90), Difficulty Rank 31 of 49 courses.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Greg Norman designs include:

• Earth Course – DP World Tour Championship (DP World Tour)
• El Camaleon GC – Mayakoba Classic or WWT Championship up to 2022
• TPC at Sugarloaf – 1997 – 2008  Classic
• Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio – Valero Texas Open

Course Overview: This will be the third Mexico Open that has been “promoted” to the PGA Tour. The Mexico Open actually dates back to 1944 and is considered Mexico’s national championship. Grupo Salinas, who brought the WGC Mexico Championship to Chapultepec across 2017-2020, now finance and host the tournament at their Vidanta Nuevo Vallarta golf complex.

Set within a kilometre of the Pacific coastline, if you are expecting a course with coastal vistas and holes that front onto the sea, well that isn’t the case. Built on flat land adjacent to the Ameca River to the north and an International airport to the south, the course is pretty unique in that no buildings or housing surround the property. Indeed access to the course is via a unique suspension bridge over the river.

The par-4 2nd and par-4 16th run alongside the Ameca, with the 6th green and 7th tee also in close proximity. Apart from that, the course is inland and features plenty of lakes meaning water is very much in play across the vast majority of holes. The volume of water actually reminds a little of a Florida-type golf course, although there are far more trees on the property than you would find at say PGA National. The topography, volume of water, Paspalum agronomy and length of the course also remind me of Grand Reserve Country Club where they play the Puerto Rico Open. Naturally with their shared designer and geographical location within Mexico, you can also see elements of El Camaleon where they played the Mayakoba Classic – that course though is over 400 yards shorter.

The Signature Course features very wide fairways, small bunkers, long waste areas, and Paspalum greens with plenty of subtle breaks and surrounded by tricky collection areas. As per any course located by the sea, scoring is dictated purely by wind strength, although saying that Tony Finau and Brandon Wu both shot -8/63s in 2022 on a day when the wind was gusting over 30 mph. Less wind in 2023 saw Jon Rahm shoot -10/61 on Saturday with Akshay Bhatia also hitting a -8/63 on “moving day.”

For me the most fascinating aspect of the course as I alluded to above is its length. At 7,456 yards and a Par 71 it’s fairly long, especially at sea level. Temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius will negate that to a fair degree, but it’s worth noting that 2 of the par-5s are 603 (6th Hole) and 637 (12th Hole) yards, plus there are 4 par-4s around or slightly above 500 yards in length. This isn’t a standard Par 71 format either with 5 par-3s and 4 par-5s, leaving 9 par-4s.

Distance off the tee undoubtedly pays huge dividends here converting to elite level Strokes Gained Off the Tee.

Mexico Open at Vidanta Winners: 2023: Tony Finau (-24); 2022: Jon Rahm (-17).

• 2023: Tony Finau 64-65-65-66 -24/260
• 2022: Jon Rahm 64-66-68-69 -17/267

Path to Victory: Below are the end-of-round positions for the winners of the Mexico Open:

• 2023 – Tony Finau: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2022 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the Mexico Open winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

• 2023 – Tony Finau: Round 1: 2 behind, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 2 ahead.
• 2022 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: Level, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 2 ahead.

OWGR of Mexico Open Winners: 2023: Finau 16; 2022: Rahm 2.

Cut Line: 2023: -2; 2022: -1.

Lead Score Progression:

• 2023: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -19; Round 4 -24.
• 2022: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -17.

Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Tony Finau, Davis Thompson, Thorbjorn Olesen, Kevin Dougherty, Thomas Detry, Jhonattan Vegas, Cameron Champ, Keith Mitchell, Erik van Rooyen and Carl Yuan.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Mexico Open Winners & Prices: 2023: Finau 8/1; 2022: Rahm 5/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2023: Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High of 63. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Friday: Mostly Cloudy. High of 57. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 66. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday:  Sunny. High of 65. Wind SW 6-12 mph.
• 2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 83. Wind SW 8-13 mph, increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 29 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 84. Wind SW 8-16 mph, increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 32 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 83. Wind SW 8-17 mph, increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 22 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 81. Wind SW 10-15 mph, increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 32 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Puerto Vallarta, Mexico is here.

As ever, hot and humid is the best way to describe the conditions this week in Mexico. With temperatures at 30-32 degrees Celsius (86-90 Fahrenheit) throughout, the players will welcome some breeze. Wind looks similar to last year, with limited wind early, building up to south-westerly 5-10 mph around lunchtime and into the afternoon. With no threat of rain I’d expect lower, resort-level scoring levels.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Hero World Challenge which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Kevin Dougherty; 2) Martin Trainer; 3) Cameron Champ; 4) M.J. Daffue; 5) Rafael Campos; 6) Keith Mitchell; 7) Tony Finau / Nicolai Hojgaard; 9) Carl Yuan; 10) Roger Sloan; 11) James Hahn; 12) Doug Ghim; 13) Patrick Rodgers; 14) Chan Kim; 15) Thomas Detry; 16) Rico Hoey; 17) Ryan McCormick; 18) Parker Coody / Vincent Norrman / Alejandro Tosti; 21) Alex Smalley; 22) Paul Barjon / Erik van Rooyen; 24) Jhonattan Vegas; 25) Patrick Fishburn.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Roger Sloan; 2) Bronson Burgoon; 3) Tony Finau; 4) Nicolai Hojgaard / Victor Perez; 6) Thorbjorn Olesen / Davis Thompson; 8) Erik van Rooyen; 9) Carson Young; 10) Scott Stallings; 11) Rafael Campos / Brandon Wu; 13) Justin Lower; 14) Emiliano Grillo; 15) Blaine Hale Jnr; 16) Mark Hubbard / Greyson Sigg; 18) Alexander Bjork / Parker Coody; 20) Chez Reavie; 21) Michael Kim; 22) Mackenzie Hughes; 23) Ronny Shelton; 24) Trace Crowe / Keith Mitchell.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Thorbjorn Olesen; 2) Rafael Campos / Francesco Molinari; 4) Ryo Hisatsune; 5) Martin Trainer; 6) Aaron Baddeley; 7) Tony Finau; 8) Mackenzie Hughes; 9) Austin Eckroat; 10) Doug Ghim; 11) Troy Merritt; 12) Patrick Rodgers / Scott Stallings; 14) Nicolai Hojgaard / Ryan Moore; 16) Davis Riley; 17) Maverick McNealy; 18) Taylor Pendrith; 19) Hayden Springer / Carl Yuan; 21) Ryan Fox / S.H. Kim; 23) Tom Whitney; 24) Cameron Champ / Mac Meissner / Josh Teater.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Rafael Campos; 2) Tony Finau; 3) Roger Sloan; 4) Nicolai Hojgaard; 5) Thorbjorn Olesen; 6) Keith Mitchell; 7) Doug Ghim / Victor Perez; 9) Carl Yuan; 10) Parker Coody; 11) Erik van Rooyen; 12) Bronson Burgoon; 13) Carson Young; 14) Patrick Rodgers; 15) Hayden Springer; 16) Mackenzie Hughes / Justin Lower / Scott Stallings; 19) Josh Teater; 20) Emiliano Grillo / Stephan Jaeger; 22) Mark Hubbard / Francesco Molinari / Aaron Rai / Sam Stevens.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Thorbjorn Olesen; 2) Trace Crowe; 3) Pierceson Coody; 4) Aaron Baddeley; 5) Kevin Chappell / Emiliano Grillo; 7)  Hayden Springer; 8) S.H. Kim / Justin Suh; 10) Mac Meissner; 11) Thomas Detry / Ryan Fox / Mackenzie Hughes / Tom Whitney; 15) Jorge Campillo / Peter Malnati; 17) Ryan Brehm; 18) Patton Kizzire; 19) Maverick McNealy; 20) Jimmy Stanger / Davis Thompson; 22) Chad Ramey; 23) Nicolai Hojgaard; 24) Chesson Hadley; 25) Austin Eckroat / Keith Mitchell.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Thorbjorn Olesen; 2) Rafael Campos / Nicolai Hojgaard; 4) Tony Finau; 5) Keith Mitchell; 6) Hayden Springer; 7) Emiliano Grillo; 8) Mark Hubbard / Erik van Rooyen; 10) Blaine Hale Jnr; 11) Stephan Jaeger; 12) Aaron Baddeley / Patrick Rodgers; 14) Ryan Fox / Ryo Hisatsune; 16) Sam Stevens / Carson Young; 18) Mackenzie Hughes / Michael Kim; 20) Austin Eckroat / Doug Ghim / Davis Thompson; 23) Bronson Burgoon; 24) Harrison Endycott / Scott Stallings.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Mexico Open at Vidanta winners gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this long, Par 71:

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2023, Tony Finau (-24). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 8th.
• 2022, Jon Rahm (-17). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 30th, SG Around the Green: 22nd, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 18th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 19th, SG Around the Green: 18th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 14th.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the Mexico Open at Vidanta winners give us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2023, Tony Finau (-24). 329 yards (11th), 75.0% fairways (11th), 80.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 37’0″ proximity to hole (3rd), 85.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.62 putts per GIR (6th).
• 2022, Jon Rahm (-17). 340 yards (1st), 69.2% fairways (15th), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 40’2″ proximity to hole (18th), 70.6 % scrambling (17th), 1.73 putts per GIR (32nd).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 6th, Driving Accuracy: 13th, Greens in Regulation: 5th, Proximity to Hole: 11th, Scrambling: 10th, Putting Average 19th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how the Norman Signature Course sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Tony Finau (2023): “Yeah, they were good. Some of the pins were tucked. The greens are actually a lot firmer than they were last year. Greens are also a little bit faster so you’ve got to respect some of these pins. Short-sided is actually quite a bit tougher than it was last year. With that being the case, I thought the pins were really good and they weren’t easy. The wind blew out there in the afternoon, so I was happy to score the way I did.

Yeah, there’s a few tough driving holes, but there’s also four or five holes that allow you to really swing the driver, it’s pretty open on some of those holes. Yeah, I like hitting driver a lot when I play golf, it’s the club that gets me the momentum. It kind of goes hand in hand when I’m swinging the driver well, I’m usually putting it well. That’s how I was as a kid and this golf course I think just suits my game pretty nicely.

I think Rahmbo and I both hit a little cut, we like hitting the cut with the driver. This golf course I think suits guys that hit a little left-to-right shot with their driver, but mostly I would say just suits guys that hit it very far. This golf course allows me to kind of open up a little bit and hit it with some length.

I hit a really good iron shot on No. 17. It was a really tough par 3 today into the wind 220 yards. I hit a little draw 4-iron right on the green. It’s just a hard shot. I would have taken anything dry and to be able to hit it to 30 feet there I thought was a really good shot.”

Jon Rahm (2022 – Thursday): “Yeah, really comfortable off the tee. It’s not like it’s ever bad, but today felt especially comfortable. It’s not the most demanding golf course off the tee, right, besides 10 and maybe 1. You’re not really in real danger of being in bad position, but even though it’s generous, when I’m hitting shots the way with the trajectory and the ball flight that I wanted, it just gives me more confidence for every other shot. It’s a really good golf course. And the one thing to keep in mind for people watching the scores, there’s a big difference between morning and afternoon. We had no wind for 13, 14 holes, it’s very, very scoreable. Once the wind starts going 20, 30 miles an hour, this golf course starts showing some teeth. It’s long, you have a couple really long par 4s, 4 and 8 straight into the wind, both of them 500 yards, so you can start seeing higher scores out there.“

Jon Rahm (2022 – Friday): “Well, the wind makes it a completely different golf course. Yesterday, you know, except the last four holes or so, we enjoyed a wind-free day and you can be a little bit more aggressive with certain shots. Even with a couple longer irons, you’re just comfortable hitting it at the pin because those greens are receptive. On the other hand, today a couple of the par 5s were shorter, yes, but some holes were playing long, 10 was long, eight was long, nine and 13 were playing very, very difficult. You need to hit some quality shots on those holes. Sixteen and 17, you need to hit great shots to give yourself chances. And even 18, it is a par-5, but it’s not the easiest fairway to hit with that crosswind.”

Kurt Kitayama (2022 – Friday): “Not really. I just kind of stayed patient because I know I was able to make a lot of birdies yesterday so I figured I would be able to make a few more today, so just stayed patient. It happens. Especially 10’s such a hard starting hole and I had still a lot of par 5s coming in, so just kind of regrouped and stayed patient. I hit a couple 4 irons into 3 today and then 8, that was playing really long. I actually missed on 8, but I thought it was a really good 4-iron shot. I know on 3 I hit it to like 20 feet and that was really good. when you’re near the ocean, you get a lot of this grass, but everything’s like so purely conditioned and you don’t really get a bad lie out there, which is nice. Just a lot of like island golf, I guess.”

Jonathan Byrd (2022 – Thursday): “ Well, I mean, for a guy who’s kind of, struggled with my tee ball a little bit over the years at times and when you’ve got so many tee shots where you can just let it go and swing as hard as you want, you start off on the first hole and it kind of puts a little pressure on you like you don’t want to mess up the first tee. So it was nice to hit the first fairway. But then the rest of the golf course, it kind of gives you plenty of room off the tee and the rough’s not bad, so it’s just kind of swing away.”

Alex Smalley (2022 – Friday):” It was hard, it certainly was. We were laughing about it. The par 5, I think it’s 605, 610 yards and I hit a really good drive, but I hit 5-iron into that green on my second shot. And then No. 8 was a par-4 and I had 3-wood in on my second shot. So some of the par 4s were certainly playing pretty long. That’s what happens when you have winds that are gusting 25, 20 or 25. I was able to keep the ball in play and was able to get out of those holes that were playing really long, and happy I’m done with them.”

Incoming Form of Mexico Open winners:

• Tony Finau: 31st Harbour Town/26th Augusta/ 17th WMP/19th TPC Sawgrass.
• Jon Rahm: 27th Augusta/9th WMP/55th TPC Sawgrass/17th Bay Hill.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2023 – Smotherman – AM -8/63 125/1.
• 2022 – Byrd/Kitayama/Mullinax/Nimmer/Rahm/Todd – 5AM / 1PM Split -7/64 180/1, 100/1, 125/1, 200/1, 16/1, 60/1.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Paspalum PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 2 – Tony Finau, Ryan Moore.
• 1 – Ryan Brehm, Nico Echavarria, Chesson Hadley, Charley Hoffman, Patton Kizzire, Chad Ramey, Erik van Rooyen, Matt Wallace.

This is only our third visit to the Norman Signature Course, so it’s dangerous to make a full view on what we have witnessed. However the “grip and rip” style of golf was certainly viewable at the top of both leaderboards.

Strokes Gained Ball Striking has been the critical metric, with the 2022 title going to World Number 2 (at the time) Jon Rahm despite not being in the best of form, and the 2023 title heading the way of World Number 16 Tony Finau, in what have to be called weak events.

A look at each-way placers shows undoubted links to Grand Reserve Country Club (Puerto Rico Open) Corales Golf Club (Corales Championship) and El Camaleon (Mayakoba Classic), which is hardly surprising given the coastal location, tropical climes and the Paspalum agronomy.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:10GMT 19.2.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.