Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Nedbank Golf Challenge Tips 2023

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Stats Pages For This Event:

 

As the DP World Tour season nears completion, the Nedbank Golf Challenge retains its position as the penultimate event ahead of next week’s finale at Greg Norman’s Earth Course in Dubai for the final time, with Abu Dhabi taking over in 12 months as the end-of-season warm-up event.

Once an event reserved for no more than a dozen players, each competing for a share of the biggest prize fund in South African golf, the format has evolved of late having become a 30-man event in 2013 when it was first co-sanctioned, then expanding to 78 players, before settling now it would seem at the top 60 available in the Race to Dubai, plus a handful of invites, as the players jostle for position ahead of next week’s main event.

Winner of the past two editions of the Nedbank, Tommy Fleetwood, understandably heads this week’s market at a skinny best price of 8/1; however it’s two of the invites that add intrigue to this as a betting heat. Max Homa and Justin Thomas adopt the next two spots in the betting at 9/1 and 14/1 respectively as the Team USA Ryder Cup team-mates look to take this title on course debut. Ryan Fox, Justin Rose and Adrian Meronk all rate as 20/1 or shorter chances, with the likes of Aaron Rai, Jordan Smith, and the Hojgaard twins following behind.

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Course Overview. The 7,834 yard Gary Player Country Club at Sun City is the venue for the Nedbank Golf Challenge – on paper the course looks a brute in terms of length, however it’s worth considering that the altitude will reduce that yardage as it often does in South Africa, and officials have a tendency to play around with tee positions between rounds, so don’t expect this to play purely into the hands of the bombers and nobody else. That said, length is certainly of assistance on the par-5s which provide the best scoring chances and those players with a level of controlled aggression will tend to enjoy this track more than most.

The fairways aren’t particularly wide for this style of long, South African course and the greens are slick bentgrass that will reap a score for players who can find putting surfaces in the right number, however veering off of the fairway can leave players in some very tricky spots with thick rough in places, plus trees and bushes there to punish the errant.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Nedbank Golf Challenge that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

The Nedbank wasn’t played during 2020 and 2021, however Sun City did host the South African Open in those years and those results have also been included on the applicable pages:

Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2022: Tommy Fleetwood, 11/1; 2019: Tommy Fleetwood, 14/1; 2018: Lee Westwood, 40/1; 2017: Branden Grace, 16/1; 2016: Alex Noren, 20/1; 2015: Marc Leishman, 66/1; 2014: Danny Willett, 25/1; 2013: Thomas Bjorn, 30/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Sun City is here.

Sun City should live up to its name this week with four glorious days of largely cloud-free skies expected. Temperatures will edge towards 90 Fahrenheit by the weekend and winds will be light at 5-10mph.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors.

Analysing the final stats of the last 8 winners of this event gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test:

  • 2022, Tommy Fleetwood (-10). 64.3% fairways (28th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 61.5% scrambling (17th), 1.76 putts per GIR (19th)
  • 2019, Tommy Fleetwood (-12). 62.5% fairways (8th), 72.2% greens in regulation (8th), 50% scrambling (40th), 1.79 putts per GIR (32nd)
  • 2018, Lee Westwood (-15). 51.8% fairways (36th), 76.4% greens in regulation (4th), 52.9% scrambling (14th), 1.64 putts per GIR (1st)
  • 2017, Branden Grace (-11). 42.9% fairways (54th), 62.5% greens in regulation (31st), 59.3% scrambling (12th), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th)
  • 2016, Alex Noren (-14). 46.4% fairways (39th), 75% greens in regulation (1st), 55.6% scrambling (13th), 1.69 putts per GIR (4th)
  • 2015, Marc Leishman (-19). 50% fairways (12th), 76.4% greens in regulation (1st), 94.1% scrambling (1st), 1.73 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 2014, Danny Willett (-18).  46.4% fairways (23rd), 70.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 85.7% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (3rd)
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn (-20). 64.3% fairways (3rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 81.3% scrambling (3rd), 1.66 putts per GIR (4th)

Since its move to the DP World Tour, the winning formula here has been to maximise greens hit, coupled with a strong enough short game to minimise bogeys. The card would suggest that bombers should thrive here, however with the likes of Thomas Bjorn as well as Trevor Immelman and Jim Furyk (twice) having lifted this trophy over the years, I’d suggest an accurate type is equally likely to win this event.

As a bonus, we also have stats from the two SA Opens held here at Sun City over the pandemic period:

  • 2021, Daniel van Tonder (-16). 66.1% fairways (14th), 70.8% greens in regulation (10th), 76.2% scrambling (1st), 1.71 putts per GIR (14th)
  • 2020, Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-18). 66.1% fairways (10th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 72.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.70 putts per GIR (5th)

Statistically these two latest results don’t change my previous assertion, as both van Tonder and Bezuidenhout played nicely from tee-to-green, and putted and scrambled well.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, we have the 2019 and 2022 Nedbank events to work with, plus some very patchy stats from the 2020 SA Open:

  • 2022: Tommy Fleetwood: T: 16th; A: 6th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 2nd; P: 34th
  • 2020: Christiaan Bezuidenhout. T: 28th; A: 1st; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 3rd; P: 7th
  • 2019: Tommy Fleetwood. T: 1st; A: 7th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 21st; P: 21st

All-round games were good for the winners, although SG Approach and SG Tee-to-Green were the most consistent pointers from the three events.

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: In terms of incoming form, belated defending champion Tommy Fleetwood arrived here last year off the back of a fast-finishing 4th place at the CJ Cup on his previous start, in a season where he’d also notched top-5 finishes at the US PGA Championship and The Open. On a course he clearly enjoys, 11/1 was a fair price.

Tommy’s win in 2019 followed a 53rd place finish on his previous start at the WGC HSBC Champions which didn’t offer a great deal of encouragement, however he did close with a 67, his best round of the week, which was among the better efforts on that Sunday. Prior to that, a couple of decent enough efforts on the PGA Tour, coupled with 5th at the Dunhill Links and 8th at Crans, was enough to suggest he wasn’t playing at all badly.

2018 winner Lee Westwood had heavily hinted that a first win for 3 years might be on the cards with 5th place finishes at the Italian Open and Valderrama Masters in his last 12 starts, as well as a play-off defeat to Matt Wallace in Denmark.

Prior to that, Branden Grace hadn’t recorded a top-5 finish all year, however 6th at the Open Championship and 15th on his previous start at the WGC HSBC Champions hinted at some decent underlying form; conversely Alex Noren completed his 4th victory of the year here in 2016 and was clearly playing some excellent golf.

Marc Leishman had lost out in a play-off at the Open Championship earlier in the year in 2015 and 11th on his penultimate start at Sheshan showed some positive form also. Danny Willett had recorded 3 top-10 finishes in his previous 8 starts before winning here in 2014, the most recent of which was in Turkey on his penultimate start, whereas Thomas Bjorn had finished 2nd at the World Cup on his last start and had won at Crans a few weeks before:

  • 2022, Tommy Fleetwood: 5/35/10/MC/46/4/4/57/22/39/53/4
  • 2019, Tommy Fleetwood: 23/2/4/43/11/13/8/60/5/20/22/53
  • 2018, Lee Westwood: 5/WD/19/32/61/61/2/12/36/MC/5/35
  • 2017, Branden Grace: 9/50/15/6/28/MC/MC/25/47/32/15/15
  • 2016, Alex Noren: MC/8/1/46/49/2/1/34/11/1/37/12
  • 2015, Marc Leishman: 5/MC/39/MC/2/33/MC/MC/MC/29/11/MC
  • 2014, Danny Willett: 11/MC/30/13/5/32/MC/7/WD/21/4/21
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn: MC/73/MC/MC/58/1/57/5/39/18/21/2

Event Form: The last 3 winners, Fleetwood (twice), Westwood and Grace, each had strong enough records here at Sun City to encourage further investigation. Prior to that, the previous 4 winners were all making their Nedbank debuts the week that they won:

  • 2022, Tommy Fleetwood: 14/21/14/10/1
  • 2019, Tommy Fleetwood: 14/21/14/10
  • 2018, Lee Westwood: 6/5/1/1/5/16/28/6
  • 2017, Branden Grace: 20/4/3
  • 2016, Alex Noren: Debut
  • 2015, Marc Leishman: Debut
  • 2014, Danny Willett: Debut
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn: Debut

In good weather this event encourages a winning score of around -18 to -20; however trickier conditions over the past few renewals have kept the winning scores down to between -10 to -15. Birdies are there to be made for players who can find the majority of greens in regulation, however bogey avoidance is equally important on a course which isn’t a complete pushover.

Par-5 scoring usually makes up around half of the red numbers that a player posts around these parts, so maximising those opportunities while keeping out of trouble on the rest of the course is the order of the day. A positive record on other tracks at altitude – be that of the longer variety in South Africa or the shorter track at Crans – are a plus, as those players have shown an aptitude to adapt their game to suit the varying yardages.

 

My Final Nedbank Golf Challenge Tips Are As Follows:

Aaron Rai 2.5pts EW 25/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

We’re once again presented with the now familiar dilemma on the DP World Tour when a world-class player (or three in this case) jets into town and leaps straight to the top of the betting market.

Tommy Fleetwood’s position as favourite isn’t up for debate. The Gary Player Country Club here at Sun City suits the Southport man perfectly, as is evidenced by back-to-back Nedbank victories in 2019 and 2022, and it would come as no surprise if he were to win here at a best-priced 8/1, or likely shorter by the start of the event.

Yet Tommy is far from prolific, notwithstanding his record here of course, and winning the same event three times in succession is as tough as it is rare on both sides of the Atlantic.

Max Homa and Justin Thomas are making their Sun City debuts and are a little easier to leave out of the staking plan than Tommy, with the thin air less familiar to the pair than most of the rest of the field who invariably will have had some experience of the South African altitude, even if it’s not specifically here on this course.

Many of those who follow the top 3 in the betting have either secured their PGA Tour cards for next season bar the shouting, or could find themselves distracted by the prospect of gaining/missing out on one of the cards this week and next as that fascinating addition to the season concludes. How that affects their performances this week remains to be seen,

Back to Tommy and if he’s a good template for the type of player who should go well here then Aaron Rai fits the bill for me, particularly as his PGA Tour card is already secure from his performances across the Atlantic this season, and at 61st in the Race to Dubai his sole focus this week can be to ensure that he gets into next week’s field in the season’s finale.

Metronomic players can undoubtedly succeed around these parts: Jim Furyk, like Fleetwood, is twice a winner here at Sun City, as is Lee Westwood, and from two attempts here Rai has finished 8th and 13th with both efforts blighted by one single poor round in an otherwise competitive week.

Aaron’s form since June onwards has been strong enough to suggest that a third DP World Tour title could be forthcoming. 12th at Colonial, 3rd at the Canadian Open and 9th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic on the PGA Tour were all positive performances, and he came within a whisker of forcing a play-off at Wentworth in September, eventually finishing in a tie for second behind Ryan Fox.

28th at the Shriners Open, 21st at the ZOZO Championship and 9th last time out in Qatar shows progression, and there’s even a hint that his putting might be improving, having produced SG positive numbers at both Wentworth and Doha. RESULT: T10

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Matt Wallace 1.5pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

Listeners of the Golf Betting System podcast over recent weeks will know that I’ve been supporting Matt Wallace on the PGA Tour lately, albeit to no avail. A dip back down to the DP World Tour last time out saw the Englishman bounce back to form, recording a 9th place finish in Qatar to follow his 6th at the Dunhill Links on his previous start at this level, and from 55th in the Race to Dubai he’ll only have one thing on his mind this week – qualifying for next week with a little room to spare.

Those last two efforts aren’t the only evidence that the Hillingdon man is capable of getting into the mix when venturing away from the PGA Tour – indeed 2nd at the Czech Masters in late August could well have been a 5th victory this side of the Atlantic, were it not for Todd Clements’ outstanding final round of 63 to win by a single stroke. A long course with a little altitude worked well for Matt that week and there’s every reason to suspect he’ll go well here at Sun City.

3 attempts at the Nedbank have produced a pair of middling performances plus a standout 5th place finish here in 2018, when arriving in arguable worse overall form than right now. His effort in Qatar a fortnight ago saw a Strokes Gained positive statistic in every category and his determination to finish the season off in Dubai could well spur him on to a contending performance here this week. RESULT: T15

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Marcel Siem 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

On a Tour where the Sunday lead often resembles the hottest of potatoes, the prospect of gaining a PGA Tour card for the 2024 season could be as much of a hindrance as a motivational factor for those in the conversation this week and next.

At the age of 43, this may be the best chance that Marcel Siem gets to spend a year Stateside though, and if there’s one player who could use this as a performance motivator then it could be the German.

We’ve seen evidence of how pumped up he’s been of late as he’s put himself in the mix for one of the 10 cards, in particular in Spain last month where he finished 4th and 7th in Madrid and Sotogrande respectively, and after missing the weekend last time out in Qatar he’ll know that this week could prove pivotal to his chances.

Siem’s breakthrough win came on South African soil back in 2004 at the elevation of Houghton GC before the Dunhill Championship moved to Leopard Creek, and 4 further wins have followed, most recently earlier this year in India where he held off our man Yannik Paul.

Form here at Sun City is strong: 4th on debut back in 2014 showed promise and he’s since finished 6th at the 2020 SA Open around these parts after an opening round of 74 threatened to see Marcel miss the weekend.

Always a capable, if streaky, putter, what swings it for me though is that he’s shown that his long game is in decent shape of late. 1st for SG Tee to Green on his way to a 16th place finish at the Irish Open, Siem ranked 13th and 7th on the same count in those aforementioned Spanish efforts, plus 5th, 2nd and 11th for SG Approach over the same 3 events. RESULT: T20

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Dan Bradbury 1pt EW 110/1 (5EW, 1/4) with BetVictor

Finally I’ll take a chance on Wakefield’s Dan Bradbury who could take to the course nicely on debut this week.

It’s been barely a year since the 24 year-old hit the professional golf scene, quietly impressing on the Challenge Tour before finishing 13th at last year’s Spanish Open, then taking full advantage of an invite to the Joburg Open in November, eventually winning by 3 from Sami Valimaki to leapfrog straight to the main Tour full time.

That was Dan’s first attempt at playing at altitude and he clearly took to the task like a duck to water, and there’s enough of a hint in his recent play to suggest that a repeat performance here at the elevation of Sun City isn’t out of the question.

6th at this year’s Spanish Open and 13th last time out at the Andalucia Masters have shown a significant spike in performance over what’s otherwise been a flat 2023 with top-10s at the Soudal Open and the British Masters the only real bright spots, however those recent efforts have elevated him to 48th in the Race to Dubai and he now has a clear chance to make his Earth Course debut next week if he can keep his foot to the floor this week.

9th for SG Off the Tee, 21st for SG Approach and 20th for SG Tee to Green are season-long statistics that suggest a strong fit for Bradbury and this Gary Player design, and a field-leading 83.3% GIR in Madrid on his penultimate start points to the kind of form with his irons that could see him significantly outperform his odds here this week. RESULT: 5th

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:55GMT 6.11.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.