Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Olympic Golf Tips 2024

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Stats Pages For The 2024 Olympic Men's Golf:

 

For the third Olympics in succession, golf – both men’s and women’s – will form part of the Games with 60 qualifiers battling for the medals over 4 days of strokeplay at the iconic Le Golf National course in Paris.

From a betting perspective we’re looking at regular each-way terms, albeit generally a little less generous than normal due to the short field, with OWGR number 1 Scottie Scheffler heading the betting at 4/1 from Open Champion Xander Schauffele, who rates as a 6/1 chance in places.

The quality doesn’t dissipate with world number 3 Rory McIlroy rating as an 9/1 chance at best, with Ludvig Aberg, Jon Rahm and Collin Morikawa all priced around the 12/1 mark.

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Albatros Course, Le Golf National, Paris, France. Designer: Hubert Chesneau, 1990; Par: 71; Length: 7,247 yards; Water Hazards: 6; Fairways: Bent/Rye/Fescue; Rough: Bent/Rye/Fescue; Greens: Bent/Meadow Grass, 12’6″ on the stimp.

Course Overview. Le Golf National is always set up strongly and danger lurks on many holes if you miss fairways with water at the start and end of each round.

The 7,247 yard, par-71 stadium course was designed to test the very best golfers with a premium on accurate driving and, in particular, approaches to difficult, undulating greens. Missing greens isn’t a great option here as scrambling is tough, so attacking from the fairway has to be the only real strategy and finding the right parts of greens with any consistency is only really possible from the short stuff.

The Open de France is played here and the last few renewals have seen a mix of dry conditions (2010, 2013, 2015, 2018, 2022) and wet (2011, 2012) and a combination of both (2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2023); wet or dry the rough here is amongst the very toughest on the DP World Tour, plus some of the holes are pretty brutal in terms of length – the 17th (480 yards) and 18th (471 yards) will play amongst the most difficult on the week.

Tournament Stats. Le Golf National has hosted the DP World Tour’s Open de France for a number of years and around half of the Olympic field have played there at some point in time.

Results from the 2016 and 2021 Olympics have been added to the combined data for reference: Current Form | First Round Leader Stats | Course Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Olympic Golf Winners & Prices. 2021: Xander Schauffele, 9/1; 2016: Justin Rose, 12/1.

Le Golf National Winners & Prices. 2023: Ryo Hisatsune, 100/1; 2022: Guido Migliozzi, 80/1; 2019: Nicolas Colsaerts, 100/1; 2018: Alex Noren, 16/1; 2017: Tommy Fleetwood, 22/1; 2016: Thongchai Jaidee, 66/1; 2015: Bernd Wiesberger, 33/1; 2014: Graeme McDowell, 12/1; 2013: Graeme McDowell, 25/1; 2012: Marcel Siem, 70/1; 2011: Thomas Levet, 140/1; 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 80/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the region is here.

Overnight rain on Tuesday will have given the course another watering before conditions are expected to largely settle for the 4 days of tournament golf with sunshine, light winds and temperatures reaching the low-80s Fahrenheit save for the chance of a shower on Thursday afternoon.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the past 12 winners at Le Golf National gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test:

  • 2023, Ryo Hisatsune (-14). 67.9% fairways (6th), 79.2% greens in regulation (6th), 66.7% scrambling (14th), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
  • 2022, Guido Migliozzi (-16). 50% fairways (44th), 73.6% greens in regulation (14th), 84.2% scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
  • 2019, Nicolas Colsaerts (-12). 57.1% fairways (33rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 55.0% scrambling (30th), 1.68 putts per GIR (9th)
  • 2018, Alex Noren (-7). 75% fairways (2nd), 75% greens in regulation (5th), 55.6% scrambling (8th), 1.76 putts per GIR (37th)
  • 2017, Tommy Fleetwood (-12). 76.8% fairways (3rd), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 63.6% scrambling (9th), 1.84 putts per GIR (53rd)
  • 2016, Thongchai Jaidee (-11). 62.5% fairways (22nd), 69.% greens in regulation (18th), 68.2% scrambling (2nd), 1.68 putts per GIR (3rd)
  • 2015, Bernd Wiesberger (-13). 55.4% fairways (45th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 76.9% scrambling (3rd), 1.80 putts per GIR (33rd)
  • 2014, Graeme McDowell (-5). 62.5% fairways (17th), 68.1% greens in regulation (22nd), 56.5% scrambling (15th), 1.69 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2013, Graeme McDowell (-9). 71.4% fairways (15th), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), 73.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.76 putts per GIR (29th).
  • 2012, Marcel Siem (-8). 73.2% fairways (2nd), 73.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 63.2% scrambling (4th), 1.78 putts per GIR (32nd).
  • 2011, Thomas Levet (-7). 67.9% fairways (38th), 73.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.4% scrambling (8th), 1.77 putts per GIR (19th).
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez (-11). 76.8% fairways (16th), 77.8% greens in regulation (11th), 56.3% scrambling (38th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd).

Le Golf National is perennially described as a course where tee-to-green excellence prevails and I agree with that to an extent; however minimising bogeys with an excellent short game shouldn’t be underestimated here either.

For a player to contend here they’re going to have to find the vast majority of greens in regulation or minimise bogeys with an excellent week around the greens; the winner is ultimately likely to excel in one or both areas over the four days.

On the subject of scrambling, last year’s French Open winner Ryo Hisatsune ranked 14th in the field on that count back in September, continuing a solid trend we’ve seen from winners and contenders here at Paris National.

On the same theme, Guido Migliozzi led the field for scrambling in 2022 and 6 of the top 7 finishers in 2019 ranked inside the top 17 for getting up and down. Alex Noren sat 8th on that count after 72 holes in 2018; Tommy Fleetwood ranked 9th the year before and runner-up Peter Uihlein led the field with an excellent 82.6%. Thongchai Jaidee ranked 2nd in the field for getting the ball up and down in 2016; players ranked 1st to 5th for scrambling finished inside the top 6 overall in 2015; 1st, 2nd and 6th for scrambling finished inside the final top 5 in 2014; likewise in 2013 players ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th for scrambling finished inside the top 6; 2012 had players ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th for scrambling finish inside the top 4 and 2011 had similar stats with 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th and 8th ranked players for scrambling finishing inside the top 7.

This all makes sense when you consider that the greens here are designed to be played firm and fast so they’ll be difficult to hold for all but the very best tee-to-green practitioners in anything but soft conditions.

Stroke Gained Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, we only have the 2019 and 2022/23 events to go on, however those renewals do give us a few clues.

Eventual winners Ryo Hisatsune, Guido Migliozzi and Nicolas Colsaerts all excelled from a SG Approach and SG Tee to Green perspective, with Hisatsune and Migiozzi’s putting offsetting Colsaerts’ off the tee performance:

  • 2023: Ryo Hisatsune: T: 28th; A: 3rd; T2G: 5th; ATG: 51st; P: 5th
  • 2022: Guido Migliozzi: T: 40th; A: 1st; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 11th; P: 10th
  • 2019: Nicolas Colsaerts: T: 4th; A: 7th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 27th; P: 17th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Looking at the incoming form of our two Olympic gold medallists, neither had won a tournament in that calendar year and both arrived off solid if unspectacular finishes at the Open Championship on their last start, with Rose finishing 22nd and Schauffele 26th:

  • 2021, Xander Schauffele: 39/MC/18/3/14/MC/11/7/10/26
  • 2016, Justin Rose: 9/28/10/MC/3/19/MC/46/22/22

Looking at the French Open winners here at Le Golf National tells a similar story, where solid incoming form rather than a string of top finishes has been the more dominant theme:

  • 2023. Ryo Hisatsune: 24/15/8/58/10/26/14/13/MC/MC
  • 2022, Guido Migliozzi: MC/72/MC/18/38/35/13/34
  • 2019, Nicolas Colsaerts: 58/53/MC/MC/57/MC/17/64
  • 2018, Alex Noren: 36/3/MC/MC/17/3/23/25
  • 2017, Tommy Fleetwood: 39/MC/2/41/MC/MC/4/6
  • 2016, Thongchai Jaidee: WD/14/28/33/57/MC/MC/31/52/38
  • 2015, Bernd Wiesberger: MC/22/33/34/MC/MC/2/MC/MC/27
  • 2014, Graeme McDowell: 5/46/9/10/MC/23/62/24/28/6
  • 2013, Graeme McDowell: 9/3/45/MC/1/MC/1/MC/MC/MC
  • 2012, Marcel Siem: 2/17/52/29/MC/12/7/33/6/57
  • 2011, Thomas Levet: 42/MC/MC/MC/11/17/16/64/MC/MC
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 52/12/17/17/MC/MC/8/MC/49

Course Form: For completeness, here’s the course form of the French Open winners back to 2010.

It’s interesting to note that 13 of the past 17 winners here had previously recorded a top-25 or better on this course prior to their success, so looking for players with a decent enough track record here has generally proven to be a positive strategy when working through the Open de France contenders.

Tommy Fleetwood’s win in 2017 blew that logic apart though as he’d previously failed to make the weekend on all four attempts here before winning his second title of the season, and 2022 winner Guido Migliozzi had missed the cut on his only previous attempt. The plot thickens following Ryo Hisatsune’s success here on debut last autumn which gives some hope to the roughly half of the Olympic field who are playing Le Golf National competitively for the first time this week.

Since 2010, course form of the winners here is as follows:

  • 2023, Ryo Hisatsune: Debut
  • 2022, Guido Migliozzi: MC
  • 2019, Nicolas Colsaerts: 23/53/MC/54/MC/11/11/59/MC/22/55/MC
  • 2018, Alex Noren: MC/MC/MC/78/37/15/MC/8/10
  • 2017, Tommy Fleetwood: MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2016, Thongchai Jaidee:  MC/MC/36/31/MC/26/15/MC/2/10
  • 2015, Bernd Wiesberger: 62/47/13/18
  • 2014, Graeme McDowell: 18/4/MC/MC/13/MC/17/1
  • 2013, Graeme McDowell: 18/4/MC/MC/13/MC/17
  • 2012, Marcel Siem: DQ/23/8/21/72/66/WD/18/52
  • 2011, Thomas Levet: MC/MC/MC/50/15/34/68/MC/58/30/69/MC
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: MC/23/23/8/55/MC/MC/66/25

Le Golf National isn’t a pushover by any stretch of the imagination, even with sunny skies and a relatively calm forecast for the 4 days of tournament play. In addition to the French Open which I’ve referenced above and in this week’s stats pages, the 2018 Ryder Cup was also hosted here at Paris National with the European Team running out comprehensive winners by 17½ points to 10½ with the famous ‘Moliwood’ pairing running riot.

Le Golf National will as ever demand strong ball-striking as well as a competent short game from players who have aspirations of taking the gold medal on Sunday. The Albatros course is often described as having inland links characteristics and players with a liking for that style of golf often excel here.

My selections are as follows:

Collin Morikawa 3pts EW 14/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Just a fortnight after the Open Championship, a number of heavyweights of the golfing elite meet once again, this time with a golf medal up for grabs rather than a Claret Jug. The top 7 in the OWGR are all in attendance and as ever if we’re going to find the winner then we’re going to need to make some pretty brutal decisions about excluding players who undoubtedly have a chance to win here in Paris.

World No.1 Scottie Scheffler is as ever the favourite, yet after some really positive signs on the greens both his US Open and Open Championship efforts were blighted with a negative SG Putting performance. Paris National is no putting contest though.

Xander Schauffele was mightily impressive at Troon on the Sunday to capture his second Major of the season and arrives as the defending Olympic champion. By his own high standards it took a few weeks for him to find top gear again after his US PGA win back in May and it will take some effort for him to be at the very top of his game again this week, although it’s far from impossible.

Both of the market leaders are making their Le Golf National debut this week, whereas third favourite Rory McIlroy finished 4th here in 2010, 3rd in 2016, plus was part of the victorious European Ryder Cup team in 2018. Rory missed the cut so badly at The Open though that 8/1 to win here isn’t the most attractive of propositions and I can leave him alone this week.

Perhaps Ludvig Aberg’s weekend off at Troon could be put partially down to his Sunday collapse at Renaissance the weekend before, which leaves Jon Rahm and Collin Morikawa in the sub-20/1 range and my preference is to keep faith with the American after backing him last time out in Ayrshire.

Having entered the 2021 Games as the highest ranked player, qualification wasn’t quite so straightforward this time round as he eventually grabbed the 4th and final spot for Team USA ahead of Patrick Cantlay, but now he’s in the field he can get to work on improving on his 4th place finish in Tokyo which saw him fall just short of winning a medal.

The 27 year-old has the game to take to the Albatros course on debut with his SG Off the Tee, SG Approach and SG Tee to Green numbers all improving from his efforts at Renaissance to Troon, and although 16th place wasn’t what he was hoping for at The Open I’m sure, it does nonetheless suggest he wasn’t a million miles away from finding some of his best golf.

In a to-date winless year, which fits very much in with 2016 and 2021 Olympic champions Rose and Schauffele, Morikawa has finished 3rd at the Masters, 4th at the US PGA Championship and has three further top-4 finishes from his last six starts. We’ve seen him win the Open on debut back 2021 plus he won the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai later that year to prove that he’s readily adaptable to golf outside of the United States.

2024 has seen American domination at the 4 Major Championships and seeing Morikawa add the Olympic gold medal to that tally wouldn’t surprise me one iota. RESULT: T24

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Shane Lowry 2pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Saturday at Royal Troon was disappointing not only for Shane Lowry, but also for his army of fans and punters who had the highest of hopes that he’d convert a second Open Championship in the kind of tough conditions upon which he’s better equipped than most to overcome.

A 3-shot lead quickly disappeared once he found the coffin bunker on the Postage Stamp 8th hole, and a mixture of brutal conditions on the back 9 coupled with crucial putts left in the jaws meant that Sunday was an uphill struggle that he couldn’t overcome.

If the Saturday left us bemused it did even more so for the Irishman, yet having digested his 77 and eventually settling for 6th place on Sunday, he was still enthused about the state of his game, “Honestly, I feel like I played unbelievable golf all week. I feel like I hit the ball as well as I’ve ever done.”

Now those words resonate with me because we’ve heard similar before, specifically at the 2022 BMW Championship where he missed out on a spot at East Lake that year by the narrowest of margins, despite playing what was his best golf for quite some time by his own estimation. He won the DP World Tour’s flagship BMW PGA Championship on his next start.

Representing the island of Ireland alongside Rory McIlroy at these Olympic Games could rekindle the fireworks that the pair showed when capturing the Zurich Classic pairs event together earlier this year, and although this is an individual event in terms of scoring and medals, there will undoubtedly be enough team support and camaraderie to get Shane’s juices flowing. Not that the 37 year-old will need much to enthuse him this week after his flag-bearing duties I don’t think.

“I had a great chance of winning this Open, and it’s going to hurt for a few days. But onwards and upwards and onto the Olympics and try to win a medal for Ireland and get on from there then,” he said on Sunday.

Shane was 3rd for GIR at Troon, a key statistic for Paris National, and despite that Saturday round he was still top 10 for both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green on the week which ties in nicely with winners here in Paris in the past. 17th here in 2012 and 16th the last time he played the French Open in 2018 could both have been much better save for one poor round, and if he can put 4 good days together here I think he can seriously challenge for the gold medal. RESULT: T26

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Guido Migliozzi 1pt EW 100/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Finally, there are three previous Le Golf National course winners here in attendance this week: Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren and Guido Migliozzi, and as by far the longest odds of the trio, Guido makes the most appeal as an each-way punt this week.

The Italian’s win here in 2022 was his third DP World Tour title in a little over three years and came courtesy of an incredible final round of 62 where he finished off with a shot-of-the-year candidate to make birdie at the brutal 18th hole. When he’s on his game he’s more than capable of winning anything this side of the Atlantic, and although the competition is much fiercer this week he has that undisputable piece of course form that many above him in the betting don’t have.

Aside from the pair at the very head of the market, Guido is the only player to have won an event in this week’s field in the past 6 weeks, capturing his 4th DP World Tour title whilst carrying our money at the KLM Open, and he’s heading back to Paris in fine fettle after a solid effort for a personal best 31st at the Open Championship.

Having made the cut at Troon on the number, the 27 year-old recorded a pair of 71s over the weekend, ranking 3rd for SG Off the Tee in the process and continuing a theme of improved control from off the tee of late, ranking 4th for Driving Accuracy, which is never a bad attribute here at Le Golf National with water lurking around every corner.

This will be the second time that the Vicenza native has represented his country at the Olympics, having sat 11th after the 2nd and 3rd rounds last time in Japan before eventually finishing in a tie for 32nd after a poor Sunday. Final rounds come and go for Guido – we were also on him when he shot 78 from the lead at the European Open prior to his most recent win – but the stars align frequently enough for me to take a chance on him given the price on offer. RESULT: T22

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 11:15BST 29.7.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.