Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Omega European Masters Tips 2024

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After a blank week at the Belfry, we move on to this week and with the PGA Tour having concluded its season for now at East Lake, the DP World Tour continues its journey into the mainland this week as we make our annual pilgrimage to the Swiss Alps and the beautiful Crans-Sur-Sierre Golf Club.

With Ryder Cup qualification having started last week we’re starting to see a few European hopefuls appearing in field listings, looking no doubt to get off to a flying start in the campaign to make Luke Donald’s team at Bethpage Black. Matt Fitzpatrick throws his hat into the ring this week in an event he’s won twice before and the bookies, like Tyrrell Hatton last week, have been quick to install the Englishman as the clear favourite at 10/1. The Hojgaard twins and Matt Wallace are also in attendance this week, and alongside Thriston Lawrence they are the closest challengers to Fitzpatrick at the top of the betting at around 18/1-22/1.

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Crans-Sur-Sierre GC, Crans Montana, Switzerland. Designer: Fremantle and Gedge, 1908 with Ballesteros re-design 1999; Par: 70; Length: 6,823 yards; Fairways: Poa/Rye; Rough: Poa/Rye; Greens: Bent/Poa, 10’6″ on the stimp.

Course Overview. This quirky, sub-7,000 yard, par 70 is played at altitude in the Swiss Alps. The course is a tree-lined, undulating test with tiny bent/poa greens guarded by bunkers and run-off areas which have been toughened up further following tweaks over the past few years.

Four of the par-4s measure less than 400 yards whereas two stretch over 500 yards, plus there are five par-3s between 175 and 200 yards, however with the undulation changes and altitude the holes don’t necessarily play as the card suggests.

The front 9 contains three of the sub-400 yard par-4s from the stretch from the 5th to 7th, however it’s the final hole of that trio that presents the best opportunity for the brave, with birdies and eagles available for all who successfully take it on. Back-to-back reachable par-5s at the 14th and 15th also present opportunities, and taking advantage of these scoring holes whilst navigating safely around the remainder of the course is how the more aggressive types might prevail.

omega european masters tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Omega European Masters that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2023: Ludvig Aberg, 16/1; 2022: Thriston Lawrence, 30/1; 2021: Rasmus Hojgaard, 45/1; 2019: Sebastian Soderberg, 275/1, 2018: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 12/1; 2017: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 30/1; 2016: Alexander Noren, 18/1; 2015: Danny Willett, 16/1; 2014: David Lipsky, 125/1; 2013: Thomas Bjorn, 40/1; 2012, Richie Ramsay, 80/1; 2011; Thomas Bjorn, 55/1; 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 18/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Crans Montana is here.

Occasional showers and the odd longer spell of rain is the summary for the 4 days of tournament play with light winds in the 5-10mph bracket. Temperatures will reach the mid 60s Fahrenheit in the afternoons after some reasonably chilly starts.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 13 winners at Crans gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test:

  • 2023, Ludvig Aberg (-19). 328 yards (3rd), 65.4% fairways (32nd), 81.9% greens in regulation (3rd), 61.5% scrambling (35th), 1.69 putts per GIR (12th)
  • 2022, Thriston Lawrence (-18). 309 yards (59th), 48.1% fairways (70th), 76.4% greens in regulation (11th), 70.6% scrambling (17th), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th)
  • 2021, Rasmus Hojgaard (-13). 322 yards (20th), 73.1% fairways (2nd), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.8% scrambling (9th), 1.77 putts per GIR (30th)
  • 2019, Sebastian Soderberg (-14). 327 yards (21st), 59.6% fairways (31st), 70.8% greens in regulation (33rd), 71.4% scrambling (3rd), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th)
  • 2018, Matt Fitzpatrick (-17). 278 yards (63rd), 71.2% fairways (1st), 77.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 37.5% scrambling (25th), 1.68 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick (-14). 296 yards (44th), 66.7% fairways (16th), 74.1% greens in regulation (13th), 78.6% scrambling (2nd), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 2016, Alex Noren (-17). 301 yards (39th), 51.9% fairways (49th), 70.8% greens in regulation (26th), 95.2% scrambling (1st), 1.73 putts per GIR (23rd)
  • 2015, Danny Willett (-17). 308 yards (15th), 55.8% fairways (55th), 77.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 56.3% scrambling (35th), 1.68 putts per GIR (15th).
  • 2014, David Lipsky (-18). 298 yards (39th), 75.0% fairways (3rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 75.0% scrambling (2nd), 1.72 putts per GIR (31st).
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn (-20). 313 yards (29th), 65.4% fairways (24th), 72.2% greens in regulation (17th), 90.0% scrambling (1st), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2012, Richie Ramsay (-16). 275 yards (58th), 66.7% fairways (20th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 54.5% scrambling (46th), 1.71 putts per GIR (20th).
  • 2011, Thomas Bjorn (-20). 303 yards (24th), 82.7% fairways (1st), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 50.0% scrambling (51st), 1.69 putts per GIR (7th).
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez (-21). 308 yards (18th), 73.1% fairways (5th), 66.7% greens in regulation (32nd), 75.0% scrambling (6th), 1.54 putts per GIR (2nd).

Historically there have been 2 differing approaches to success here at Crans – either playing a conservative, high GIR game and putting well enough on the week to get the job done (Els 2003, Dredge 2006, Luquin 2008, Noren 2009, Bjorn 2011, Ramsay 2012, Bjorn 2013, Lipsky 2014, Willett 2015, Fitzpatrick 2018, Hojgaard 2021, Lawrence 2022 and Aberg last year all succeeded in this fashion); alternatively relying on an outstanding short game is the other route to victory as ably demonstrated by Karlsson (2002), Donald (2004), Rumford (2007), Jimenez (2010), Noren (2016) and Soderberg (2019).

Only Garcia in 2005 and Fitzpatrick in 2017 really displayed a more balanced pattern of stats on the week, however both are excellent ball-strikers first and foremost.

SG Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the most consistent statistic across all four renewals has been SG Tee to Green. Ludvig Aberg’s performance on all of the long game metrics was outstanding 12 months ago, which allowed him to get away with a flat week with the putter overall:

  • 2023: Ludvig Aberg: T: 2nd; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 31st; P: 43rd
  • 2022: Thriston Lawrence. T: 58th; A: 1st; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 22nd; P: 19th
  • 2021: Rasmus Hojgaard. T: 2nd; A: 5th; T2G: 8th; ATG: 66th; P: 12th
  • 2019: Sebastian Soderberg. T: 8th; A: 35th; T2G: 9th; ATG: 7th; P: 17th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: 10 of the last 13 winners here arrived with a top-8 finish recorded in their previous event and all had a top-10 finish in their last 10 starts at the very least, so some solid recent form looks preferable. All winners had also recorded a minimum of one top-5 finish in the season or, in the case of Noren, Bjorn and Jimenez, a victory on Tour:

  • 2023, Ludvig Aberg: MC/70/24/61/25/24/40/4/MC/64/14/4
  • 2022, Thriston Lawrence: 18/36/58/MC/18/MC36/3/24/42/MC/8
  • 2021, Rasmus Hojgaard: MC/12/MC/MC/79/MC/55/17/41/MC/38/3
  • 2019, Sebastian Soderberg: MC/MC/MC/21/14/WD/41/MC/MC/5
  • 2018, Matt Fitzpatrick: 30/12/27/MC/14/MC/48/MC/36/7
  • 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick: 12/2/35/MC/54/MC/44/50/MC/54
  • 2016, Alex Noren: 9/MC/43/12/MC/8/1/46/49/2
  • 2015, Danny Willett: 29/MC/38/3/MC/38/6/MC/MC/6
  • 2014, David Lipsky: 18/10/MC/58/2/15/19/24
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn: 4/2/2/18/8/MC/73/MC/MC/58
  • 2012, Richie Ramsay: 52/2/16/MC/MC/16/MC/MC/MC/6
  • 2011, Thomas Bjorn: 15/MC/WD/MC/57/MC/4/68/MC/1
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 8/MC/49/1/MC/27/22/MC/7/3

Event Form (1996 Onwards): Once upon a time, a positive record on this track was generally a good sign given its quirky nature. Both David Lipsky and Richie Ramsay arrived here with patchy course form at best though and the past four winners were all course debutants, so it’s certainly not the be-all and end-all:

  • 2023, Ludvig Aberg: Debut
  • 2022, Thriston Lawrence: Debut
  • 2021, Rasmus Hojgaard: Debut
  • 2019, Sebastian Soderberg: Debut
  • 2018, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/2/7/1
  • 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/2/7
  • 2016, Alex Noren: 66/MC/1/MC/9/27
  • 2015, Danny Willett: 23/42/25/2/26/5
  • 2014, David Lipsky: 59/MC
  • 2013, Thomas Bjorn: 8/MC/30/2/2/WD/23/26/MC/15/1/MC
  • 2012, Richie Ramsay: MC/MC/34
  • 2011, Thomas Bjorn: 8/MC/30/2/2/WD/23/26/MC/15
  • 2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 8/55/7/6/21/46/63/8/2/13/37/MC/3/4

Those with either a high GIR game or excellent short game can succeed here, however it’s clear that despite its lack of length this course favours neither the longer nor shorter hitters. Aberg, Hojgaard and Soderberg are all relatively long though and although before that the eventual champions in recent times hadn’t been exceptionally long drivers of the golf ball, that fact could have had an entirely different spin on it had Scott Hend converted either of his play-off chances in 2016 and 2017, or if Lucas Bjerregaard had overcome Matt Fitzpatrick in 2018.

With the likes of Rory McIlroy (2019), Pelle Edberg (2015) and Brooks Koepka (2014) also contending in the relatively recent past, it’s clear that this isn’t necessarily a course that fits a single style of play.

My selections are as follows:

Thriston Lawrence 3pts EW 18/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

Matt Fitzpatrick is the clear favourite this week and with 2 wins, a second and a third from 7 starts here in the Swiss Alps, combined with the fact that he’s by far the highest-ranked player in the field at 26th in the OWGR, it’s difficult to dispute his chance. Yet like Tyrrell Hatton last week, I think there’s enough reason to look elsewhere.

For starters Fitz hasn’t had a great year by his high standards: 5th at The Players Championship and 5th at The Memorial are notable exceptions, however for the most part he’s not been firing on all cylinders. A thumb issue at Le Golf National meant that he made an early exit from the Olympic Men’s competition last month, and although he’s played competitively since his 28th place finish on his last start at the BMW Championship wasn’t enough to see him through to East Lake on the PGA Tour.

Of course Fitzpatrick has the class – and the course record – to turn all of that on its head and win, however my preference is to back the very much in-form Thriston Lawrence at around twice the price who ticks pretty much every box for me this week.

It’s true that the past four winners here at Crans have all been debutants and I don’t blame punters for trying to dig out value first-timers here this week based on that fact, however the flip side of that is there have been well over a dozen multiple winners here in the Swiss Alps over the years, including Thomas Bjorn, Alex Noren and of course Fitzpatrick since 2010 alone. Thriston was the 2022 winner, prevailing in a play-off against Matt Wallace, and there’s every chance that he puts himself in position to repeat the feat again this week.

Somewhat of an altitude golf specialist, the South African’s first three DP World Tour wins at the Joburg Open, here at Crans, and then at the South African Open all came with significant adjustments required to yardages, and whilst the maths isn’t massively complicated, Lawrence clearly gets it more than most.

Runner up at the Dubai Invitational, Jonsson Workwear Open and European Open earlier in the year, the 27 year-old’s name became better know to the more casual golf punter at this year’s Open Championship where he shot himself into contention with a Saturday 65 before eventually finishing 4th. A casual 5-shot victory on home soil the week before last at the SunBet Challenge was almost followed up at The Belfry where Niklas Norgaard had to dig deep to fend off Lawrence last Sunday, where he eventually finished second despite leading the field for both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green. Going one better this week certainly isn’t out of the question in my view. RESULT: T27

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Matteo Manassero 2pts EW 33/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Star Sports

One of the most popular bets with early-bird punters this week has been to back Matteo Manassero outright and I see no reason to oppose that train of thought.

Like the last 5 winners of this event and 10 of the past 13, the Italian enters this week off the back of a top-10 finish on his last start – 6th to be precise – and his field-leading GIR performance at The Belfry caught my eye as he heads to the tiny greens of Crans-sur-Sierre.

Never blessed with the power from off the tee that many of his peers possess, this short track at altitude presents a great opportunity for the 31 year-old as he looks to build on his success at Glendower – another altitude track – earlier this year which marked his first victory at the top level of European golf for over a decade.

That performance with his irons last week certainly wasn’t a one-off: 9th on Tour for GIR for the full season, Matteo also ranks 6th or SG Approach and 12th for SG Tee to Green, and if he can continue that level this week then an improvement on what’s already a progressive form line of 31st at The Open, 18th at The Olympics and then last week’s 6th place finish is a distinct possibility.

The only fly in the ointment is his recent course form here in the Swiss Alps: Manny has missed the cut on his last four attempts and hasn’t played since 2018, however that encompasses a period where he’d lost his game. I’m much more inclined to use his 3rd place finish here in 2010, where he led after day 1 and was in contention throughout, as a more relevant barometer for his chances this week. RESULT: MC

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Jorge Campillo 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Slightly further down the betting board I’m also keen on Jorge Campillo after he flashed some form last week at The Belfry.

The Spaniard is back this side of the Atlantic having spent the bulk of this year over on the PGA Tour after gaining one of last year’s 10 cards which gave him a chance at the big time. 4th at the Myrtle Beach Classic back in May was the best result he recorded which can’t be sniffed at as he drops back down to DP World Tour level, and at 65th in the Race to Dubai rankings he has real incentive to push on over the early autumn with qualification for Abu Dhabi (top 70) and Dubai (top 50) very much within his grasp.

6th last week at the British Masters was a welcome return to form for the 38 year-old as he looked in total control of his long game, hitting more fairways than anyone else in the field while ranking 4th for SG Off the Tee and 11th for SG Tee to Green. 11th for Scrambling was also positive heading to a course with small, quirky greens, and he also gained nearly a stroke per day with the putter to suggest that his game’s in good shape across the board.

2 of his 3 DP World Tour wins have followed a top-10 finish on his previous start, and in his most recent success last year in Kenya we also have the added bonus of him having proven himself at altitude with Muthaiga golf club in Nairobi sitting 5,000 feet above sea level.

Fortunes have been mixed for Jorge’s ten attempts at taming Crans-sur-Sierre over the years, however after missing five of his first seven cuts here he turned the corner in 2021 where he was 3rd heading into Sunday before falling away, then he improved on that the following year to finish 4th overall. 40th last year saw him in 16th heading into Sunday which all suggests to me that he’s finally working out what’s required to win around these parts. RESULT: T34

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David Ravetto 1pt EW 100/1 (6EW, 1/5) with William Hill

Finally I’ll take a chance on David Ravetto who’s been playing the golf of his life and doesn’t deserve to be chalked up at 3-figures in some places.

The Frenchman’s breakthrough win in Prague last month was mightily impressive: 4 strokes was the eventual gap between him and runner-up Jesper Svensson as he closed with an almost flawless 64 to take the trophy. Positive in every Strokes Gained category, Ravetto topped the field for SG Tee to Green whilst ranking 2nd for SG Approach and both of those metrics have proven to be key here at Crans since being measured.

There’s more altitude here in the Swiss Alps than on the outskirts of Prague although adjustments need to be made for both venues, and with that winning experience now in the locker – bolstering his Challenge Tour success in South Africa back in February – I’m expecting a big improvement over his debut here last year where a pair of 69s meant a narrow missed cut.

4th at the Danish Golf Championship immediately after his victory in the Czech Republic where he was again SG positive on every metric suggests that David isn’t simply going to dine out on his success, and at 26th in the Race to Dubai rankings there’s still scope for the 27 year-old to push on for a place on the PGA Tour next season with access to the DP World Tour’s season-ending Play-Offs all but wrapped up.

14th for the season for SG Off the Tee marries up with the more modern approach that has seen the likes of Sebastian Soderberg, Rasmus Hojgaard and Ludvig Aberg succeed here at Crans over the past few years, and for me he’s a must-bet given the dismissive price on offer this week. RESULT: T59

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:45BST 2.9.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.