Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Open Championship FRL Tips 2023

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For full FRL stats for the 2023 Open with tee times added click here.

The First Round Leader (FRL) market is fascinating given there are many ways to review the data to hand, especially at the Open Championship which uses a course rota system.

How does the weather forecast impact conditions? Will it be softer earlier, windier for some, warmer for others? What tee times have the recent FRL winners had? Have the recent FRL winners started well in an Open Championship in the past? Have the recent FRL winners started well in their recent events; have they even been playing well in recent events?

Lots of questions and the odd red herring along the way I’m sure, however I think there are a few factors to consider which might help point us in the right direction.

First up the weather: Met Office | BBC Forecast

Both forecasts suggest a largely dry day with temperatures picking up to around 17 Centigrade / 63 Fahrenheit in the afternoon. The breeze won’t be excessive with 9 mph picking up a little to around 14 mph as the temperature rises, although this is coastal golf and all of that could change in the next 24 hours of course.

Conditions underfoot are relatively soft and with the chance of more rain before the start all players should find the course scoreable on the first day if they can keep the ball in play.

Going back to 2012 and Royal Lytham, 12 players have shared the First Round Leader market spoils over 10 renewals; 9 of those 12 players teed off in the morning. Although that’s hardly a representative sample size, it does however tell a story about course conditions plus more receptive greens for the early starters. But as Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar and JB Holmes proved in 2016, 2017 and 2019 respectively, late starters can start fast, especially if a weather window appears.

Looking at FRL market winners since 2012, we’re talking about an elite group of players – with 21 Major titles between them, it’s a high quality bunch:

AM

  • 07:52 – 2018: Carnoustie, Kevin Kisner
  • 08:25 – 2022: St Andrews, Cameron Young
  • 08:42 – 2012: Royal Lytham, Adam Scott
  • 09:26 – 2014: Hoylake, Rory McIlroy
  • 09:33 – 2015: St Andrews, Dustin Johnson
  • 09:47 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Jordan Spieth
  • 09:58 – 2021: Royal St George’s, Louis Oosthuizen
  • 10:06 – 2013: Muirfield, Zach Johnson
  • 10:09 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Brooks Koepka

PM

  • 13:26 – 2016: Royal Troon, Phil Mickelson
  • 13:37 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Matt Kuchar
  • 14:26 – 2019: Royal Portrush, JB Holmes

If we look back at 2014 when The Open last visited Hoylake, Rory McIlroy led after 18 holes with an opening round of 66, with Matteo Manassero a shot behind and 7 others tied for third. The tee times from the top 9 after 18 holes were as follows:

  • 1st. Rory McIlroy: 09:26
  • 2nd. Matteo Manassero: 08:04
  • 3rd. Brooks Koepka: 07:20
  • 3rd. Francesco Molinari: 07:53
  • 3rd. Shane Lowry: 15:22
  • 3rd. Edoardo Molinari: 07:20
  • 3rd. Adam Scott: 14:27
  • 3rd. Jim Furyk: 08:26
  • 3rd. Sergio Garcia: 08:37

So eventual FRL leader Rory McIlroy was an early starter, as was Manassero in second, plus 5 of the 7 players in the tie for third, which adds a little more weight to the argument that an early tee time on Thursday may well be favourable.

2023 First Round Leader Bookmaker Open Championship Promotions

First Round Leader punters often get forgotten about by the bookmakers, but that certainly isn’t the case at the 2023 Open Championship.

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Unibet have gone 7 places each-way at 1/5 odds across Thursday’s opening round action, so do check their odds before placing your bets:

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For me there’s not a massive amount in it if we’re looking for any draw bias with the later starters enjoying the warmest part of the day with maybe a touch more breeze. Given the history pointing towards early starters though, I’ve backed a team with 2 AM and 1 PM starter:

Brooks Koepka 2pts EW 33/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Unibet

  • Open Starts: 8
  • Open FRL Best: 1st (2017)
  • Open FRL Top-7s: 3
  • Last 6 Event FRL Form: 18/38/28/56/15/33
  • Tee Time: 9.36am

I’ve backed the Major machine that is Brooks Koepka in my outright market preview, and from a prime marquee group position in the morning wave I can see the 5-time Major Champion getting off to a flyer.

Twice in his last 15 starts the 33 year-old has led or co-led after the first 18 holes, a 62 at LIV Jeddah the most distant and a 65 at Augusta National the most relevant to this week’s task. Although his most recent starts haven’t been quite so explosive, we know that Brooks is single-mindedly focussed on adding to his Major tally and getting off to a strong start will be a focus this week I’m sure.

8 Open Championship starts have seen him sit inside the top 3 after the first day on three separate occasions, including in 2017 at Royal Birkdale where an opening round of 65 tied for the lead with Jordan Spieth and Matt Kuchar. More of the same is quite possible this week as he looks to put the third piece of the Grand Slam jigsaw into place. RESULT: T19

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✅ For further details read our Unibet sign up offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ Strong odds on First Round Leader market

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Ryan Fox 1pt EW 80/1 (5EW, 1/4) with bet365

  • Open Starts: 6
  • Open FRL Best: 3rd (2019)
  • Open FRL Top-7s: 1
  • Last 6 Event FRL Form: 17/6/7/93/14/46
  • Tee Time: 6.57am

Some players are best suited to links and links-style golf; other players are perennial fast starters who are often worth backing in the FRL market rather than outright. In Ryan Fox those two aspects collide this week, and with one of the earliest tee times that makes him a definite play for me this week.

The winner of last year’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, Fox also won at a coastal track at Ras al Khaimah earlier that year and was runner-up at Bernardus Golf at the Dutch Open, which is an exposed inland course with linksy features. 2nd also at 13th Beach for the 2020 Vic Open plus a victory at the 2019 World Super 6, which sits just inland from the beachfront in Perth, Australia all adds credence to the argument that he could go well this week. Indeed 12th overall last week at Renaissance suggests that his game is in a good spot right now.

4 FRLs from 27 starts in 2022 tells us everything we need to know about the Kiwi’s prowess when it comes to getting off to a fast start, and although 2023 hasn’t been so prolific in that respect he’s twice sat inside the top 7 after day 1 from his last 5 starts.

Seeing him burst out of the blocks quickly on Thursday, as he did at Royal Portrush at the 2019 Open to sit 3rd after 18 holes, wouldn’t surprise me whatsoever. RESULT: T139

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Ewen Ferguson 1pt EW 150/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Unibet

  • Open Starts: Debut
  • Open FRL Best: N/A
  • Open FRL Top-7s: N/A
  • Last 6 Event FRL Form: 44/7/49/47/8/7
  • Tee Time: 2.26pm

Could those immortal words from Radar suggesting that the ‘wind has died right now’ be uttered on Thursday afternoon, allowing a later starter such as Ewen Ferguson to card a low round from a mid-afternoon tee time? There’s just a hint that the breeze will peak around 3pm, and if it does drop off during the warmest part of the day, perhaps we’ll see the odd decent score posted early into the evening as the first round draws to a close.

Ferguson won twice on the DP World Tour last year, the first of which was at Doha Golf Club in Qatar which is always a good barometer for links golf, and he has plenty of experience of this type of course from his formative golfing years to suggest he could go well on Open debut. Indeed the Glaswegian won the boys amateur championship here at Hoylake as a fresh-faced 17 year-old back in 2013, so has some practical experience of the course – and winning experience at that.

4th overall at The Belfry and 12th last week at Renaissance are encouraging efforts so far in July, sitting 8th and 7th after the first day respectively, and Ewen is no stranger to posting a low Thursday total having carded rounds of 61 on his way to winning last year’s ISPS Handa World Invitational which is a short hop from Hoylake across the Irish Sea, before opening with a round of 63 in Himmerland, which is another track which shares linksy features. RESULT: T89

✅ Bet £10 get £40 in bonuses for new customers.
✅ For further details read our Unibet sign up offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ Strong odds on First Round Leader market

Unibet New Customer Offer: 18+. BeGambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Min £10 debit card deposit. Place a £10+ bet at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days. Opt in for £20 in free bets and £20 Casino Bonus. Valid for 7 days. Geographical restrictions and T&C’s apply. #Ad

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 07:10BST 19.7.22 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.