Open Championship FRL Tips 2024

For full FRL stats for the 2024 Open with tee times added click here.

The First Round Leader (FRL) market is fascinating given there are many ways to review the data to hand, especially at the Open Championship which uses a course rota system.

How does the weather forecast impact conditions? Will it be softer earlier, windier for some, warmer for others? What tee times have the recent FRL winners had? Have the recent FRL winners started well in an Open Championship in the past? Have the recent FRL winners started well in their recent events; have they even been playing well in recent events?

Lots of questions and the odd red herring along the way I’m sure, however I think there are a few factors to consider which might help point us in the right direction.

First up the weather: Met Office | BBC Forecast

Both forecasts suggest a dull day, damp day with temperatures picking up to around 17 Centigrade / 63 Fahrenheit in the afternoon. The breeze will be at its strongest just after lunchtime at around 15mph, although this is coastal golf and all of that could change in the next 24 hours of course.

Going back to 2012 and Royal Lytham, 15 players have shared the First Round Leader market spoils over 11 renewals; 11 of those 15 players teed off in the morning. Although that’s hardly a representative sample size, it does however tell a story about course conditions plus more receptive greens for the early starters. But as Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar, JB Holmes and Emiliano Grillo proved in 2016, 2017, 2019 and 2023 respectively, late starters can start fast, especially if a weather window appears.

FRL market winners since 2012 are listed below, beginning with the AM starters:

AM

• 07:52 – 2018: Carnoustie, Kevin Kisner
• 07:52 – 2023: Hoylake, Christo Lamprecht
• 08:25 – 2022: St Andrews, Cameron Young
• 08:42 – 2012: Royal Lytham, Adam Scott
• 09:26 – 2014: Hoylake, Rory McIlroy
• 09:33 – 2015: St Andrews, Dustin Johnson
• 09:47 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Jordan Spieth
• 09:47 – 2023: Hoylake, Tommy Fleetwood
• 09:58 – 2021: Royal St George’s, Louis Oosthuizen
• 10:06 – 2013: Muirfield, Zach Johnson
• 10:09 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Brooks Koepka

PM

• 13:26 – 2016: Royal Troon, Phil Mickelson
• 13:26 – 2023: Hoylake, Emiliano Grillo
• 13:37 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Matt Kuchar
• 14:26 – 2019: Royal Portrush, JB Holmes

If we look back at 2016 when The Open last visited Royal Troon, eventual runner-up Phil Mickelson led by three after day one with a sparkling round of 63 from an afternoon tee time. Martin Kaymer and Patrick Reed were Lefty’s closest challengers from a PM and AM starting time respectively.

• 1^st. Phil Mickelson, 63: 13:26
• 2^nd, Martin Kaymer, 66: 14:04
• 2^nd, Patrick Reed, 66: 08:03

8 players tied for 4^th with a mix of early and late starters, so if anything there was a slight bias towards the later starters overall.

2024 First Round Leader Bookmaker Open Championship Promotions

First Round Leader punters often get forgotten about by the bookmakers, but that certainly isn’t the case at the 2024 Open Championship.

7 Places Each-Way at 1/5 Odds

Ladbrokes and Unibet have gone 7 places each-way at 1/5 odds across Thursday’s opening round action, so do check their odds before placing your bets. Their latest new customer offers are as follows:

For me there’s not a massive amount in it if we’re looking for any draw bias with the middle part of the day forecast to get the strongest of the wind, so I’ve gone with one of the earlier starters balanced by one of the later starters:

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 07:40BST 17.7.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.