Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Open Championship FRL Tips 2024

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For full FRL stats for the 2024 Open with tee times added click here.

The First Round Leader (FRL) market is fascinating given there are many ways to review the data to hand, especially at the Open Championship which uses a course rota system.

How does the weather forecast impact conditions? Will it be softer earlier, windier for some, warmer for others? What tee times have the recent FRL winners had? Have the recent FRL winners started well in an Open Championship in the past? Have the recent FRL winners started well in their recent events; have they even been playing well in recent events?

Lots of questions and the odd red herring along the way I’m sure, however I think there are a few factors to consider which might help point us in the right direction.

First up the weather: Met Office | BBC Forecast

Both forecasts suggest a dull day, damp day with temperatures picking up to around 17 Centigrade / 63 Fahrenheit in the afternoon. The breeze will be at its strongest just after lunchtime at around 15mph, although this is coastal golf and all of that could change in the next 24 hours of course.

Going back to 2012 and Royal Lytham, 15 players have shared the First Round Leader market spoils over 11 renewals; 11 of those 15 players teed off in the morning. Although that’s hardly a representative sample size, it does however tell a story about course conditions plus more receptive greens for the early starters. But as Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar, JB Holmes and Emiliano Grillo proved in 2016, 2017, 2019 and 2023 respectively, late starters can start fast, especially if a weather window appears.

FRL market winners since 2012 are listed below, beginning with the AM starters:

AM

  • 07:52 – 2018: Carnoustie, Kevin Kisner
  • 07:52 – 2023: Hoylake, Christo Lamprecht
  • 08:25 – 2022: St Andrews, Cameron Young
  • 08:42 – 2012: Royal Lytham, Adam Scott
  • 09:26 – 2014: Hoylake, Rory McIlroy
  • 09:33 – 2015: St Andrews, Dustin Johnson
  • 09:47 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Jordan Spieth
  • 09:47 – 2023: Hoylake, Tommy Fleetwood
  • 09:58 – 2021: Royal St George’s, Louis Oosthuizen
  • 10:06 – 2013: Muirfield, Zach Johnson
  • 10:09 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Brooks Koepka

PM

  • 13:26 – 2016: Royal Troon, Phil Mickelson
  • 13:26 – 2023: Hoylake, Emiliano Grillo
  • 13:37 – 2017: Royal Birkdale, Matt Kuchar
  • 14:26 – 2019: Royal Portrush, JB Holmes

If we look back at 2016 when The Open last visited Royal Troon, eventual runner-up Phil Mickelson led by three after day one with a sparkling round of 63 from an afternoon tee time. Martin Kaymer and Patrick Reed were Lefty’s closest challengers from a PM and AM starting time respectively.

  • 1st. Phil Mickelson, 63: 13:26
  • 2nd, Martin Kaymer, 66: 14:04
  • 2nd, Patrick Reed, 66: 08:03

8 players tied for 4th with a mix of early and late starters, so if anything there was a slight bias towards the later starters overall.

2024 First Round Leader Bookmaker Open Championship Promotions

First Round Leader punters often get forgotten about by the bookmakers, but that certainly isn’t the case at the 2024 Open Championship.

7 Places Each-Way at 1/5 Odds

Ladbrokes and Unibet have gone 7 places each-way at 1/5 odds across Thursday’s opening round action, so do check their odds before placing your bets. Their latest new customer offers are as follows:

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For me there’s not a massive amount in it if we’re looking for any draw bias with the middle part of the day forecast to get the strongest of the wind, so I’ve gone with one of the earlier starters balanced by one of the later starters:

Shane Lowry 1pt EW 50/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Unibet

  • Open Starts: 11
  • Open FRL Best: 2nd (2019)
  • Open FRL Top-7s: 2
  • Last 6 Event FRL Form: 64/32/95/44/86/33
  • Tee Time: 2.59pm

I’ve backed Shane Lowry in the outright market and if the burly Irishman is going to seriously contend for the title this week then it could well be from a fast start.

The 2019 Open Champion is striking the ball as well as ever this year and a new putter seems to have turned the tide with what had otherwise been a cold spell with the flat stick.

Leader of the Arnold Palmer Invitational after the first round back in March, Lowry and playing partner Rory McIlroy shot 61 between them at the Zurich Classic to co-lead after 18 holes on their way to victory in April. 62 in the third round of the PGA Championship was matched on his last start at the Travelers Championship in the second round, suggesting that he’s scoring well enough to get off to a flyer here, and having spent the last couple of weeks preparing away from competitive golf he should be ready to go this week.

3rd after 18 holes in 2014 when recording his first Open top 10 finish overall, the 37 year-old went on to improve on that when starting with a 67 at Royal Portrush to sit 2nd after day one before capturing his maiden Major title later that week. A similar scenario could be on the cards this week. RESULT: 2nd

✅ Bet £10 get £40 in free bets and bonuses for new customers.
✅ For further details read our Unibet sign up offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ Strong odds on First Round Leader market

Unibet New Customer Offer: 18+. BeGambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Min £10 debit card deposit. Place a £10+ bet at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days. Opt in for £20 in free bets and £20 Casino Bonus. Valid for 7 days. Geographical restrictions and T&C’s apply. #Ad

Aaron Rai 1pt EW 66/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

  • Open Starts: 2
  • Open FRL Best: 48th
  • Open FRL Top-7s: 0
  • Last 6 Event FRL Form: 63/12/9/4/15/58
  • Tee Time: 8.36am

One player coming into this week with significant momentum is Aaron Rai who snared one of the final three places here at Troon courtesy of his 4th place finish at Renaissance over the weekend.

63 to close in North Berwick was a continuation of the strong recent form that the 29 year-old has shown of late, with 19th at the US Open being followed by 2nd at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 7th at the John Deere Classic before last week’s effort.

7 times from 243 professional starts at all levels we’ve seen the Wolverhampton man at the top of the leaderboard after the first round, with 4 of those efforts coming since the start of last year.

A winner in Scotland at the 2020 Scottish Open in tough conditions, Aaron’s accurate game gives him an excellent chance of avoiding the trouble here at Troon and the appointment of a new putting coach appears to be doing wonders having ranked 1st and 6th for SG Putting over his past two outings. RESULT: T44

✅ Bet £/€5, Get £/€20 in Free Bets
✅ For further details read our Ladbrokes promo code page.
✅ Have just started to offer 10 places each-way, 1/5 odds consistently on full-field PGA Tour events
✅ Offered 10 places each-way 1/5 odds at all 4 Majors in 2023

Significant terms: 18+ New UK+IRE customers. Paypal and certain deposit types and bet types excluded. Min £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4 x £/€5 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days on sports, stake not returned, no cashout. Restrictions apply. T&Cs apply. #Ad

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 07:40BST 17.7.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.