Royal St George’s Golf Club – Sandwich, Kent, England: Designer: Laidlaw Purves; Course Type: Coastal Links; Par: 70; Length: 7,206 yards; Fairways: Fescue, and Bentgrass; Rough: Fescue, and Bentgrass; Greens: Bentgrass (40%), Fescue (60%).
Course Overview.
Royal St George’s Golf Club in Sandwich, Kent was the venue of the very first Open to be played on English soil back in 1894. A true classical links test, the course flanks the Kent coastline and is very much open to the elements with virtually no trees to offer respite from the wind.
It last hosted the 2011 Open Championship, when Northern Ireland’s Darren Clarke captured his one and only Major at the age of 42. His 2011 win followed on from fellow Northern Irishmen Graeme McDowell and Rory McIlroy capturing their first Majors at the 2010 and 2011 US Opens.
One of the sternest tests on The Open rota, Royal St George’s has traditionally proven tough to score on. Of the last five winners at the venue, Greg Norman is the only one to have recorded a winning total lower than -5/275, posting a stunning -13/267 in 1993. That remained a record low score in the Championship for 23 years, until Henrik Stenson shot -20/264 to win at Royal Troon in 2016.
After St Andrews, Royal St George’s has hosted more Opens than any other course on the rota. Founded in 1887, Royal St George’s hosted the first Open outside Scotland in 1884, won by Englishman J.H. Taylor.
St George’s position on the south-east coast leaves it extremely open to the elements. Positioned on Sandwich Bay, the course is set on a flat piece of land with no protection from the English Channel and with no trees for protection.
Famous for tall sand dunes, deep bunkers and firm Fescue/Bentgrass green complexes with plenty of surrounding run-off areas, St George’s is no picnic. Uneven lies aren’t just commonplace here, they are to be expected, and despite the levelling out of some holes via a Mackenzie & Ebert renovation pre-2011, there are masses of good looking shots which end up in serious trouble and vice-versa on this golf course. It’s true links golf at its very best.
And there’s been another Mackenzie & Ebert renovation pre-2021, which has included the restoration of the huge bunkers at the 4th and 7th holes, the reinstatement of a large sand area to the left of the 5th hole, conversion of two bunkers to the left of the 17th green into a swale, and the reconfiguration of the bunkering at the 18th hole to offer more choices from off the tee.
Back in 2011, World Number 1 at the time Luke Donald described the challenge of Royal St George’s far more eloquently and accurately than I can. He said, “As I’ve said before, there’s very few tournaments we play where the golf is anything even similar to this. You know, it’s a different set of circumstances, different grasses, different shots. You’re having to manipulate the ball a lot more, really control it, and especially when you get windy conditions like we had today, it’s a challenge. It’s not just standing up there and kind of swinging away; there’s a lot more thought to it and a lot more control of the golf ball that’s needed, and I think this is a tough one to win at.”
For more quotes from 2011, read Steve Bamford’s pre-event trends article for this year’s Open Championship.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Open Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats | Recent Majors Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2019:, Shane Lowry: 70/1; 2018: Francesco Molinari, 33/1; 2017: Jordan Spieth, 16/1; 2016: Henrik Stenson, 33/1; 2015: Zach Johnson, 110/1; 2014: Rory McIlroy, 18/1; 2013, Phil Mickelson, 20/1; 2012: Ernie Els, 45/1; 2011: Darren Clarke, 200/1; 2010: Louis Oosthuizen, 250/1.
For a summary of winners’ odds on the European Tour since 2010 click here; for the same on the PGA Tour click here.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
Royal St George’s is a little softer than the ground staff would like after a couple of months of wet weather, and there’s the prospect of more rain in the lead up to the start of this year’s Open.
Tournament days should get progressively warmer with sunny spells expected and temperatures reaching the mid-70s Fahrenheit. Winds will be moderate as high pressure builds, with a 15-20mph breeze expected to blow in from off the sea.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors.
Let’s take the final skill statistics from Darren Clarke, Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson from the latest 2011 Open Championship held at Sandwich. This gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
- 1st, Darren Clarke (-5). 312 yards (17th), 41.1% fairways (56th), 70.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 35.7 % scrambling (61st), 1.69 putts per GIR (11th).
- 2nd, Dustin Johnson (-2). 335 yards (1st), 50.0% fairways (29th), 65.3% greens in regulation (6th), 41.3% scrambling (41st), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th).
- 2nd, Phil Mickelson (-2). 307 yards (27th), 48.2% fairways (36th), 69.4% greens in regulation (3rd), 52.1 % scrambling (17th), 1.76 putts per GIR (31st).
Tournament Skill Averages:
- Driving Distance: 15th, Driving Accuracy: 40th, Greens in Regulation: 4th, Scrambling: 40th, Putting Average 16th.
Looking back at 2011 Sandwich really seemed to suit the longer hitters. Lucas Glover, Rickie Fowler, Anthony Kim, Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson from an American perspective all had parts to play across the 4 days of action, and all sat in the top 80 for Driving Distance on the PGA Tour arriving in Kent.
Royal St George’s was fast enough on the fairways, with plenty of roll-out, but in the main the longer hitters thrived, and naturally that included Darren Clarke, who averaged 312 yards with the driver, good enough for 17th across the week.
Ultimately though, in this pre-Strokes Gained era, Greens in Regulation was the key statistic at Sandwich in 2011. Clarke was 2nd at 70.8%, with runner-ups Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson ranking 6th (65.3%) and 3rd (69.4%) for Greens Hit. And when you look at shock winner Ben Curtis and his statistics from 2003, the Ohio man ranked 21st for Driving Distance at 304 yards, 3rd for Total Driving, 16th for Greens in Regulation and 3rd for Ball Striking.
There are a number of identifiable trends from the past few Open Championship winners that are worth considering this week:
Recent Wins: In terms of recent winning form, 14 Open Champions from the last 20 renewals (70%) had won a tournament in the same season prior to triumphing at The Open.
Tiger Woods (00, 05, 06), Ernie Els (02), Todd Hamilton (04), Padraig Harrington (07), Louis Oosthuizen (10), Darren Clarke (11), Phil Mickelson (13), Rory McIlroy (14), Henrik Stenson (16), Jordan Spieth (17),Francesco Molinari (18) and Shane Lowry (19) had all won in the same season prior to lifting the Claret Jug.
In terms of ‘non-winners’, David Duval had 3 Top-10 finishes and had finished 2nd at Augusta at the Masters prior to his triumph Royal Lytham in 2001. 2008 saw Padraig Harrington accumulate 4 Top-10s prior to winning by 3 shots at Royal Birkdale and the following year saw Stewart Cink arrive at Turnberry with 2 Top-10s including a 3rd at the World Match Play.
Zach Johnson may have arrived as a 110/1 shot in 2015, however with 7 top-10 finishes in the season to date and incoming form of 6/3 over his previous two events, he was clearly in decent nick. Only Ben Curtis at Royal St Georges in 2003 came from way off the page: in his rookie season on the PGA Tour he’d managed a 13th at the Western Open 2 weeks prior to The Open before beating Bjorn, Singh, Love III and Woods to take the coveted Claret Jug back home to Ohio.
Recent Form:
Shane Lowry’s success at Royal Portrush in 2019 was his 2nd win of the season having won the Abu Dhabi Championship at Rolex Series level earlier in the year. He finished runner-up on the PGA Tour’s Canadian Open the month before his Major triumph and adds even more gravitas to the fact that in-form players are the ones to follow at the Open Championship.
It makes sense that those who are struggling with their games are unlikely to find them on a tough links course and in the last 8 champions we can see a pattern that’s easy to extrapolate:
- 2019: Shane Lowry in 2019 had won the stellar year-opener, the Abu Dhabi Championship on the European Tour and backed that up with his most successful period on the PGA Tour. 3rd at the RBC Heritage (coastal), 8th at the Bethpage Black-hosted PGA Championship and 2nd behind Rory McIlroy at the RBC Canadian Open had preceded top-30 and top-40 outings at the US Open and Irish Open.
- 2018: Francesco Molinari, like Zach Johnson in 2015, arrived in Scotland directly off the John Deere Classic charter flight from Illinois and his confidence must have been sky high. A huge win (his 5th on the European Tour) in May at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth was followed by 2nd at his home Italian Open when defending. But the Italian’s summer got even better when he flew out to Washington in July to player Tiger’s tournament at TPC Potomac, which he won and in doing so captured his first tournament in the United States. He arrived in Scotland having just shot a field best -7/64 in the final round to finish T2 in the John Deere Classic.
- 2017: Jordan Spieth flew into the northwest of England fully fresh and rested his 10th PGA Tour victory which he’d racked-up at TPC River Highlands when clinching the Travelers Championship in a spectacular play-off victory over Daniel Berger 4 weeks prior. In Strokes Gained parlance he was 7th for Approach, 2nd for Around The Green and 1st for Tee to Green, whilst he wasn’t bad with the putter finishing 3rd for Putts per GIR.
- 2016: Henrik arrived in Ayrshire fresh from a free-wheeling 13th at the Scottish Open played at Caste Stuart. 76 in Round 1 was then followed by rounds of 69-66-70. However a fortnight prior to the Scottish Open, Stenson had won the BMW International Open at Gut Larchenhof with a -17/271 total. His performance in Germany and his 3-shot winning margin was made even more impressive by the fact that he topped Driving Accuracy, Total Driving, Greens in Regulation and All-Round categories. He was also 2nd for Scrambling. Henrik had also finished 4th at Bro Hoff Slot in June as well as 3rd at Bay Hill and 2nd in Houston earlier in the season on the PGA Tour.
- 2015: Zach arrived at Edinburgh airport on the charter flight direct from Silvis, Illinois where he’d just finished a single shot behind Jordan Spieth at the John Deere Classic. 5th at Las Colinas and 6th at TPC River Highlands in preceding PGA Tour outings highlighted a player at the top of his game – even now the fact that he was available at 110/1 to win at St Andrews is jaw-dropping!
- 2014: Rory had won the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth in May, a track which had always been his nemesis until his closing 66 destroyed the field. He then limbered up with a free-rolling 14th at Royal Aberdeen the week before triumphing in Cheshire, where a horrible 78 on Friday was surrounded by rounds of 64, 67 and 68. Rory was 18/1 second favourite prior to the tournament.
- 2013: Phil Mickelson had already won at TPC Scottsdale and finished 2nd on the tough tests of Merion (US Open) and TPC Southwind before he touched down in Scotland. Arriving at Castle Stuart the week before The Open, Phil was a 20/1 shot to win the Scottish Open, which he duly did before travelling down the east coast to Muirfield where he shot an incredible 66 on Sunday to win by 3 shots from Henrik Stenson again at 20/1.
- 2012: Ernie Els was available at 45/1 prior to Royal Lytham in 2012. With 4 Top-5 finishes (Fancourt, Copperhead, Bay Hill and New Orleans) plus a 7th at Wentworth and 9th at the US Open just prior to the Open, he had huge momentum and was in the right place at the right time when Adam Scott collapsed over the closing 4 holes. It’s fact that Ernie was the latest in a long line of form players to triumph at the Open Championship.
Last 10 event form of Open Championship winners since 2010 reads as follows (most recent result on the right):
- 2019, Shane Lowry: 62/MC/MC/24/MC/3/8/2/28/34
- 2018, Francesco Molinari: 17/20/49/16/MC/1/2/25/1/2
- 2017, Jordan Spieth: 12/30/MC/11/MC/MC/2/13/35/1
- 2016, Henrik Stenson: 11/3/2/24/MC/MC/4/WD/1/13
- 2015, Zach Zohnson: 20/9/MC/17/13/19/5/72/6/3
- 2014: Rory McIlroy: 25/7/8/8/6/1/15/23/MC/14
- 2013: Phil Mickelson: 3/MC/16/54/3/MC/2/2/MC/1
- 2012: Ernie Els: 4/12/MC/2/MC/41/7/58/9/52
- 2011: Darren Clarke: 12/48/MC/77/1/45/63/46/MC/66
- 2010: Louis Oosthuizen: 3/44/2/1/MC/MC/21/20/MC/MC
For current form stats for this week’s field click here.
Open Championship Record: Positive previous Open Championship performances have also been a factor when you look through the history of the most recent winners of golf’s oldest Major.
9 of the last 10 Open Champions had all previously secured at least a top-10 in this event in their careers – the exception to that rule being Louis Oosthuizen’s win at St Andrews in 2010:
- 2019, Shane Lowry: 37/32/9/MC/MC/MC/MC
- 2018, Franceso Molinari: MC/13/MC/MC/39/9/15/40/36/MC
- 2017, Jordan Spieth: 44/36/4/30
- 2016, Henrik Stenson: MC/34/48/MC/3/13/3/68/2/39/40
- 2015, Zach Zohnson: MC/MC/MC/20/51/47/76/16/9/6/47
- 2014: Rory McIlroy: 42/47/3/25/60/MC
- 2013: Phil Mickelson: 41/24/76/MC/11/30/66/59/3/60/22/MC/19/48/2/MC
- 2012: Ernie Els: 2/10/28/24/2/3/1/18/2/34/3/4/7/8/MC/MC
- 2011: Darren Clarke: 11/2/MC/30/7/3/37/59/11/15/MC/MC/52/44
- 2010: Louis Oosthuizen: MC/MC/MC
For event history stats for this week’s field click here.
It’s also interesting to note that only two players since 2000 have won The Open whilst ranking outside of the world’s top-55 when entering this week – Ben Curtis in 2003 and Darren Clarke in 2011 were the two to achieve this. For reference, Shane Lowry was 33rd in the OWGR before his victory in 2019.
In general, an in-form player with some relevant results from previous Open Championships and/or links/coastal events has triumphed in this event and I’d be surprised if the player who lifts the Claret Jug on Sunday deviates from this a great deal.
Royal St George’s has hosted The Open on 14 occasions, 6 of which have come from 1981 onwards with players that we’re more familiar with. Greg Norman’s 13-under total in 1993 is the lowest score of those renewals, with Sandy Lyle’s +2 in 1985 the highest. Although even in perfect conditions this par-70 is still a challenge, I suspect that this will be a year that sees slightly lower scoring with softer conditions than hoped for only being partially offset by a moderate breeze.
What does this mean? Well, for me firmer, tougher conditions would swing the pendulum towards the more experienced veterans and links specialists, whereas softer conditions as expected might favour a more ‘modern’ style of golfer.
Second-guessing seaside conditions can be a dangerous game to play, however the forecast does seem fairly stable at the time of writing, if a little breezy, and I’m not expecting a Darren Clarke-style tournament and result. All of that said, to lift the Claret Jug a player will also need to demonstrate masses of guile and determination coming down the stretch on Sunday under the most intense of pressure.
My selections are as follows:
