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The very best players in world golf are being joined at Royal Troon this week by those who’ve qualified through the many and varied routes, as 158 hopefuls battle to win the Claret Jug and title of Champion Golfer of the Year in what’s sure to be an enthralling 4 days on the Ayrshire links.
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With a top-class field comes an intriguing betting market, with world number 1 Scottie Scheffler rating as the 5/1 favourite at the time of writing with 6 wins to his name already in 2024. Rory McIlroy follows behind at 15/2 with Ludvig Aberg, Bryson DeChambeau and Xander Schauffele all available in the 11/1 to 14/1 range. As ever, there’s a case to be made for almost all of those near the head of the betting in what looks to be a pretty open affair.
Royal Troon, Troon, Ayrshire, Scotland: Designer: George Straith and Willie Fernie 1888, with Martin Ebert (Mackenzie and Ebert) additions 2014 and 2021; Course Type: Coastal, Links, Medium; Par: 71; Length: 7,385 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 0; Fairways: Fescue; Rough: Bentgrass, with Fescue and Gorse, First Cut 2 metres wide 2”, Tended Rough 6 metres wide; Greens: Browntop Bentgrass with Fescue.
Martin Ebert has performed another Open Championship update to the Old Course here at Royal Troon. 195 yards has been added to the course taking Troon from 7,190 yards to 7,385 yards for the 2024 Open. The course will stay as a Par 71 and 9 new tee boxes have been added to accommodate the almost 200 yard increase in Old Course length. It’s also worthy of note – as many a professional doesn’t like them – that the new tee on the 10th hole introduces a completely blind shot to Royal Troon. At 450 yards, players off the new back tee will be faced with a blind drive with a daunting carry over large sand hills.
The par-5 6th will be talked about a lot this week as the hole has received plenty of work. Two new bunkers have been added to the drive landing area plus 22 yards have been added to it, stretching the back tees to 623 yards. This makes it the longest hole in Open Championship history.
Troon is a true test of two halves. A prevailing north-westerly wind tends to dictate how the course plays – naturally its strength tends to be the key to scoring levels. The outward nine heads in a south-easterly direction, with the opening 6 holes staying close to the coastline. To contend, players make their scores on these holes with the wind at their back, but in typically firm links conditions this makes stopping the ball far from an easy exercise. From the 7th hole onwards, making pars rather than birdies becomes the challenge. The ‘Postage Stamp’ 8th is one of the most famous holes in golf, with the 125-yard par-3 looking tempting on paper until you see the bunkers and run-off areas which surround the tiny green. The green surface itself has a total area of just 2,636 square feet. The first hole in the round where players turn into the prevailing north-westerly, the 2024 Open may see this hole play as short as 100 yards on one of the days.
The inward nine plays into the prevailing wind, and turns into a challenge of survival. A number of blind tee shots intimidate, as does the drive at the ‘Railway Hole’ 12th, which is one of the toughest in world golf. Players constantly talk about keeping the ball low and out of the wind on the inward nine, where trouble including gorse, tough fescue rough and deep bunkers are only a slight mistake or misjudgement away. However, as ever with most links set-ups, the Old Course plays as tough as the weather conditions dictate. If winds are light then scoring becomes far easier.
In summary, Royal Troon is a course where line is more important than distance from off the tee. A plotter’s course where planning and plotting will be required to win. Bunkers are everywhere on the fairways, the majority of which are not visible from the tees. Many are instant one-shot penalties. There’s plenty of deep rough and a smattering of gorse and broom to punish the wayward shot.
For a full breakdown of the course, changes since The Open last visited, and player quotes from the 2016 Open Championship hosted here, read Steve Bamford’s pre-event trends article.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Open Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats | Recent Majors Stats.
Predictor Model: Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Winners & Prices: 2023: Brian Harman, 125/1; 2022: Cameron Smith, 28/1; 2021: Collin Morikawa, 40/1; 2019:, Shane Lowry: 70/1; 2018: Francesco Molinari, 33/1; 2017: Jordan Spieth, 16/1; 2016: Henrik Stenson, 33/1; 2015: Zach Johnson, 110/1; 2014: Rory McIlroy, 18/1; 2013, Phil Mickelson, 20/1; 2012: Ernie Els, 45/1; 2011: Darren Clarke, 200/1; 2010: Louis Oosthuizen, 250/1.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
A moderate westerly breeze of around 15mph is expected to accompany the occasional sunny spell and frequent showers, with temperatures reaching the low 60s Fahrenheit in the afternoons. A developing low pressure system could see a more significant deterioration in conditions from Friday onwards, although that scenario is less certain at the time of writing.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Lets take the final skill statistics from Todd Hamilton and Henrik Stenson from their respective 2004 and 2016 Open Championship victories held on the Old Course at Troon. This gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
Tournament Skill Averages:
Three aspects jump out from these statistics. Well directed power from off the tee is an advantage. Henrik Stenson did this with his trusty 3-wood.
Hitting greens consistently is tougher than your standard Tour event, as the combination of wind, fast conditions and green complexes which repel approach shots, creates a real ball-striking test. A plethora of missed greens over 72 holes even for players who are managing the course well from tee-to-green makes a top-class scrambling game 100% essential.
There are also a number of identifiable trends from the past few Open Championship winners that are worth considering this week:
Recent Form: Going back to the Open held at St Andrews in 2010, each of the 13 players who’ve lifted the Claret Jug have had some contending form in the recent past. Each of the winners had a top-3 finish or better in their last 8 starts, and if you take the past 7 Open victors in isolation, each of them had a win or 2nd place finish in one of their past 9 outings.
Last 10 event form of Open Championship winners since 2010 reads as follows (most recent result on the right):
For current form stats for this week’s field click here.
2024 Victory: Looking back to the start of the century, 16 of the 23 Open Championship winners had already won an event of some description in that calendar year to date.
For reference they were: Tiger Woods (00, 05, 06), Ernie Els (02), Todd Hamilton (04), Padraig Harrington (07), Louis Oosthuizen (10), Darren Clarke (11), Phil Mickelson (13), Rory McIlroy (14), Henrik Stenson (16), Jordan Spieth (17), Francesco Molinari (18), Shane Lowry (19), Collin Morikawa (21) and Cameron Smith (22).
In total, 48 players in this week’s field fulfil that criteria – listed by OWGR as of 12/7/24:
To reinforce this point, Open Championships held here at Royal Troon over the years have all produced winners who had already won in that calendar year:
Open Championship Record: Positive previous Open Championship performances have also been a factor when you look through the history of the most recent winners of golf’s oldest Major.
10 of the last 13 Open Champions had all previously secured at least a top-10 in this event in their careers – the exception to that rule being Louis Oosthuizen’s win at St Andrews in 2010, Collin Morikawa who won at Royal St George’s on debut, and Cameron Smith in 2022 at St Andrews.
Smith’s record could and perhaps should have been much better though, having sat in 5th place after 36 holes in 2019 and 9th after 54 holes in 2021, before getting it right over the weekend 2 years ago.
Brian Harman restored the trend last year having finished 6th at St Andrews the year before, continuing a sequence of improving performances at The Open:
For event history stats for this week’s field click here.
Recent Majors Form: One aspect that we’ve discussed on the Golf Betting System Podcast when previewing The Open over the years is the growing and consistent trend that recent Open Champions have recorded a top-25 finish in one of their previous 4 Major starts, and in the case of the last 6 Open winners, a top-11 finish.
Last 4 Majors of Open winners:
Logically this makes a level of sense as players who have found themselves in and around the top end of a Major leaderboard in recent times may well take that experience forward and build on it when the chance arises at The Open.
For recent Major Championship form for this week’s field click here.
OWGR Ranking Of Winners: It’s also interesting to note that only two players since 2000 have won The Open whilst ranking outside of the world’s top-55 when entering this week: Ben Curtis in 2003 and Darren Clarke in 2011 were the two to achieve this.
Taking this another step further, every Open Champion since Clarke’s win has ranked inside the OWGR top 40 at the time:
Of course there’s the LIV factor to consider with this year’s renewal given that those players aren’t getting the same level of opportunities to gather OWGR points, however the history to this point is pretty indisputable.
Royal Troon is challenging without being one of the very toughest of Open Championship venues with 10- to 12-under being a fairly common winning total over the years here. Henrik Stenson got to 20-under here in 2016 in soft conditions, however he and Phil Mickelson were well clear of the rest of the field.
Second-guessing seaside conditions can be a dangerous game to play, although there’s enough of a hint in the forecast to suggest that this isn’t going to be a particularly easy renewal with rain and a moderate breeze expected. Overall though, to lift the Claret Jug a player will also need to demonstrate masses of guile and determination coming down the stretch on Sunday under the most intense of pressure.
Shane Lowry 2pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
While many of this week’s cast were racking up the birdies on the East coast of Scotland over the weekend, Shane Lowry took an entirely different approach to preparation for this week’s Open and that may pay dividends with a swift adjustment required by many to the more challenging assignment that Royal Troon will present.
Prior to rubbing shoulders with tennis royalty at Wimbledon earlier this week, Shane was last seen playing a wet and windy Royal Troon, braving the conditions in short trousers, and with the potential for a deteriorating weather forecast he could be the player most attuned with the demands that this week will present.
From the miserable conditions that the Irishman proved victorious in at Baltray as an amateur at the 2009 Irish Open to winning The Open a decade later at a wet and breezy Royal Portrush a decade later, Shane might not particularly like playing in the conditions that we can expect at times this week but boy is he more capable and better equipped than most when it comes to battling the elements.
Trends-wise, Shane has a full house for me this week. The world number 33 arrives here with a pair’s win alongside Rory McIlroy at the Zurich Classic in April boosting confidence and a progressive form line of 49/19/9 over his past three outings, shooting 62 in the second round of the Travelers on his last start to tie the low round of the day.
2024 Majors form reads 43rd at The Masters, 6th at the US PGA Championship where he again shot a round of 62, plus 19th at the US Open where he improved every round at Pinehurst No.2. MC/8/28 was his Majors form in 2019 before capturing his maiden Open Championship and he can approach this week with confidence I’m sure.
16th on the PGA Tour for Driving Accuracy for 2024, 14th for Total Driving, 10th for SG Approach and 18th for SG Tee to Green are all eye-catching stats ahead of this week’s exacting task on the Scottish west coast and although the putter can be a little cold at times, a change of equipment at the Zurich Classic saw him produce his career-best putting round at the PGA Championship when recording that third round 62, finishing 2nd for SG Putting overall on the week.
By Shane’s own estimation, 2024 has been the best he’s ever played from tee-to-green. With confidence flowing with the putter and a course and conditions to suit, I can see the burly 37 year-old finding himself right in the mix for another chance of lifting the Claret Jug here this week. RESULT: 6th
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Collin Morikawa 3pts EW 16/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred
The top of the market looks pretty treacherous with cases, and very valid cases at that, to be made for the leading five in the betting.
Scottie Scheffler would follow the Arnold Palmer in 1962 route to Royal Troon success having, like the late, great man himself, won a monumental six times already in the calendar year before arriving here in Ayrshire. Palmer was unstoppable that year, picking the lead up in round two and separating himself from the field by a full six shots by the end of Sunday. Scheffler could undoubtedly do that here, however the Open has been his least productive Major thus far with form of 8/21/23 and at 5/1 I can justify leaving him alone. If he wins then so be it.
McIlroy at 15/2 is more complex to fathom out. Undoubtedly playing some great golf, 4th at Renaissance was a solid warm-up for this week’s main event, yet it’s nigh on a decade now since Rory’s last Major win and as we saw at Pinehurst that the final hurdle isn’t always easy to navigate.
Ludvig Aberg’s price understandably crashed as soon as it was clear how well he was playing at Renaissance last week, however he’s making his Open debut this week and although that’s not an insurmountable point, it does raise the question of whether he can strut his stuff on a properly challenging, blustery links.
Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau have won the last two Majors and can’t be discounted, but the player in the top half-dozen in the market I’m most interested in is Collin Morikawa.
Having already achieved what the aforementioned Ludvig Aberg is attempting to do this week by winning an Open Championship on debut back in 2021 at Sandwich, two missed cuts in two Opens since wasn’t quite what he or the golfing world expected, however that sequence could easily come to an abrupt halt this week from what we saw at Renaissance when finishing in a tie for 4th place.
Statistically the 27 year-old fits the bill as you’d expect from a 2-time Major winner. 2nd on Tour for Driving Accuracy will help keep him out off the penal bunkers and rough, and that’s backed up 16th for SG Off the Tee and 8th for SG Tee to Green for the season which tells us where the long game is. If anything, his normally dependable approach play has been the one aspect not quite up to scratch, however that looked to be better last week in North Berwick, gaining more than half a stroke per day with his approaches.
12th for SG Around the Green and 27th for Scrambling gives me the confidence that he can produce the kind of performance around the greens that will be required to contend this week, and we know that he’s more than capable in the breeze, as is evident if you play with the wind variable on this week’s predictor model.
The reason that the Californian isn’t headlining my team this week is that he can’t boast a victory in 2024, although we’re arguably splitting hairs as he won as recently as late October at the ZOZO Championship which in previous years would have formed part of the current season’s schedule in the old wraparound format.
In truth, this year must be a source of frustration for Morikawa with 5th at the Sentry, 4th at Colonial and 2nd at Memorial all close but no cigar. It’s his performances at the Majors thought that likely grate the most, and in particular the way he’s finished the events on a Sunday. 2nd into the final round at Augusta resulted in a disappointing 74 to close, and he co-led with eventual winner Xander Schauffele a month later at Valhalla before shooting 71 to finish 4th. A round-of-the-day 66 at Pinehurst on the Saturday catapulted Collin into the top 10 with 18 holes to go, but again he was flat on Sunday and eventually finished 14th.
July has been good to Morikawa over the years with two further PGA Tour wins to accompany his Open success 3 years ago, and with his game in great shape perhaps he’ll find the missing ingredient this Sunday if he’s in the mix and complete his personal hat-trick of Major titles. RESULT: T16
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Tom Kim 1pt EW 50/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred
I backed Tom Kim at Hoylake last year and after damaging ankle ligaments after the first round back at his rental house it looked like his tournament would end early, if not through the injury then due to the fact that he’d opened with a 74 and was staring a missed cut in the face.
Even at the age of 21 this time last year, the South Korean was made of sterner stuff than that and limped around the Wirral links in 68 strokes to comfortably make the weekend. From there, and with his mobility clearly limited, it was to Tom’s great credit that he produced weekend rounds of 68/67 to ultimately finish second, albeit a distant second, to runaway winner Brian Harman.
3rd at Renaissance in 2022 announced Kim to the wider audience as he had a live chance to win that event coming down the stretch on a links course which offered up some significant defence, and he featured again last year on the same course, reaching the summit during Sunday’s play before finally succumbing a little down the stretch with his final tie for 6th impacted by a 72nd hole double bogey as he was desperately trying to clear out of Rory McIlroy’s way.
Those two efforts are perhaps of more relevance to this week’s Open given the trickier conditions than we saw the week just gone in North Berwick where Kim finished in a tie for 15th, however it was pleasing nonetheless to see him come home in 30 strokes on Sunday where he was dialled right in with his irons. In what was otherwise a stress-free warm up for this week’s main event, it’s almost as if Tom tapped the accelerator on Sunday to see what was under the bonnet and he would have been pleased with the response I’m sure.
30th, 26th and 26th again from his three Major starts this season is solid if unspectacular from an overall perspective, however within that you’ll find that he closed with the round of the day at Augusta, was in the top 5 after day one at Valhalla, and 9th heading into Sunday at Pinehurst. A play-off loser to Scottie Scheffler last month at the Travelers Championship, Tom’s got the accuracy and approach play to seriously contend this week in my view. RESULT: MC
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Tony Finau 1pt EW 50/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Unibet
Finally I’ll close with Tony Finau who I think represents excellent each-way value this week with the extended places on offer.
11 times from 33 career Majors starts Tony’s finished inside the top 10 overall, and although we need him 7th or better this week there’s plenty to suggest that’s not out of the realms of possibility. Tied 18th here at Royal Troon on his Open Championship debut back in 2016, the Utah man sat inside the top 6 through each of the first three rounds before falling away on Sunday with a closing 74. Subsequent Open form of 27/9/3/15/28/MC shows a player who’s readily adapted to the different courses on the rota, with last year’s weekend off coming at the end of a stretch of poor results following his Mexico Open win earlier that year.
Fast forward 12 months and we find a player in far better over form than this time last year, having come close at the Houston Open in March to adding a 7th PGA Tour title to his resume, eventually finishing 2nd to Stephan Jaeger, and after the disappointment subsided he’s shown progressive form once again with a form line reading 18/17/8/3/5 over his last 5 starts. That 3rd place finish was at the US Open last month and represents the 37 year-old’s best Major finish for 5 years.
For Tony to win this he’ll need to be at his very best from off the tee which isn’t always a given, however with no water here to lose his ball in it’s a case of him being able to dodge enough bunkers over the course of four days to stay in the hunt. Excellent in the wind and with a short game that’s looked on point over the past 6 weeks or so, having opted to miss last week’s Scottish Open to prepare in his own way for this he should be refreshed and ready to go this week when the action starts on Thursday. RESULT: MC
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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 11:50BST 15.7.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.
If 3-figure longshots are more to your taste then check out Steve Bamford’s pick of the longer priced players here.
