Open de Espana Tips 2022

Jon Rahm could win at a canter here in his homeland and condemn the week to chasing an each-way payout, of that there’s no doubt. A 5-stroke victory here at Club de Campo on debut in 2019 is all the evidence you need for the former OWGR number 1 and a recent burst of form with the putter plugs the gap that was missing in his game earlier in the year, meaning that a low-grade Mexican Open is the Spaniard’s only victory of the year thus far.

The bookies are taking absolutely no chances though and 5/2 isn’t a price I want to get involved with for Rahm, despite his obvious chance. 17^th here when defending last year offers a glimmer of hope that he can be beaten, and perhaps there’ll be enough distractions on his first visit home this year to open the door to someone else.

Tommy Fleetwood doesn’t appeal at what is also a prohibitive price on course debut, however at 3^rd in the betting with most firms Adri Arnaus offers a little more juice as he looks to settle a score from last year after losing in a play-off to compatriot Rafa Cabrera-Bello, who undoubtedly rode his luck on his way to victory.

That effort from Arnaus rubber-stamped his liking for this Club de Campo layout, having led to halfway on debut the previous time the Tour visited in 2019, eventually finishing 4^th. It was the putter which gave the 27 year-old his chance here last year, ranking 1^st for SG Putting, and there was evidence of a warm flat stick last week at the Dunhill Links as he ranked 3^rd on the same score from the limited rounds recorded at St Andrews.

22^nd overall at the Home of Golf was a welcome return to some semblance of form for the Barcelona man, having missed his previous three cuts. That was a personal best at the Dunhill Links for Arnaus in conditions and on courses that don’t play to his strengths; this parkland layout, on the other hand, is right up his alley, and another strong performance where he can push the market leaders is quite possible.

Adri’s last visit to his homeland resulted in his long-anticipated breakthrough win at DP World Tour level when he finally overcame Oliver Bekker in a marathon play-off at the Catalunya Championship in May, and his wider Spanish form is also impressive. A play-off defeat on the Alps Tour back in 2017 sets the scene and 7 further top-10 finishes at all levels on Spanish soil prior to that most recent victorious effort demonstrates a strong level of comfort on home soil, included in which were finishes of 2^nd (2019 Andalucia Masters) and 4^th (2021 Canary Islands Championship) alongside his aforementioned efforts here. RESULT: MC

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Jon Rahm and Tommy Fleetwood aside, the field soon thins out in terms of world ranking, and at 92^nd in the OWGR and with two wins in this wraparound season already to his name, Thriston Lawrence deserves a little more respect in the market in my view.

Whilst his Joburg Open win last November was undoubtedly fortuitous following the curtailment of that event due to Covid-related fears, there was nothing lucky about the way he won the Omega European Masters at the end of August, opening with rounds of 62/64 before eventually seeing off a player of Matt Wallace’s quality in the play-off.

Both courses carry some parallels to this week’s task in terms of agronomy and style, despite their differing levels of altitude, and from what we’ve seen so far from the South African, tree-lined, parkland set-ups are undoubtedly a strength, which makes me comfortable in ignoring last week’s missed cut at St Andrews.

2^nd at the Kenya Open on another parkland track of comparable length to this week’s task is more positive correlation, as is 3^rd at the Irish Open which was hosted this year at Galgorm Castle which again shares enough characteristics to make the result of interest.

Perhaps the price this week is a reflection of the fact that the 25 year-old is making his debut at the Spanish Open and on this course, however given what we saw of him at Crans on an altogether more sophisticated test to master on a player’s first look, I have little concern that some players have a year or two’s more experience here at Club de Campo.

20^th at Le Golf National, where he sat in 7^th place heading into the weekend on a far less compatible track – again on debut – suggests that his game hasn’t materially dropped away following his most recent win, and with the scope to advance significantly in the world rankings enhanced as the LIV players slide down the OWGR at present, players like Lawrence must see these next few weeks as a huge opportunity to get into the OWGR top 50 by the end of the year. RESULT: MC

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Qualifying for the Olympics alongside compatriot Viktor Hovland was undoubtedly a highlight of Kristian Krogh Johannessen’s career, however there’s enough evidence to suggest that he can trump that sooner rather than later with a breakthough win at DP World Tour level.

Starts on the top tier have been limited in 2022 due to his restrictive status, so the 27 year-old has been playing largely on the Challenge Tour where results have been strong. A win at the Italian Challenge in July has been flanked by 9 finishes of 26^th or better, including 4 top-10 results which have catapulted Johannessen into the top 10 of the Road to Mallorca rankings.

3^rd at the Made in Himmerland last month was the Norwegian’s best career effort at DP World Tour level, and he started well at Wentworth the following week, sitting inside the top-20 after the first and second rounds before fading on the third and final day.

Positive signs then as Kristian looks to build on his 5 career victories at lower levels and a return to Club de Campo could spark more success having taken to this course nicely on his first attempt in 2019, leading after day 1 with a sparkling round of 63 before understandably fading away given that he was in nowhere near the same form as he has been of late.

Wider form in Spain is positive too, punctuated by a win at the 2018 Lumine Hills Open on the Nordic Golf League and 7 further top-10 finishes in the country at all levels, demonstrating a level of comfort in this part of the world. WD PRE-EVENT

Another Scandinavian who interests me here this week at a solid mid-price is JB Hansen.

A missed cut last week at the Dunhill Links was no surprise for the Dane who has an awful record in that event with a solitary cut made from 6 appearances now, and if anything last week’s effort was actually far better than most years. More challenging conditions on the links won’t have suited Hansen either, so the promise of something far more amenable this week can only help his cause.

2 wins at DP World Tour level at 19- and 23-under par tells us that the 32 year-old is far more comfortable on scoreable, resort-style tests and the fact that both of those wins – at the 2020 Joburg Open and 2021 Dubai Championship – came in the autumn is also positive from a biorhythm perspective.

2022 form hasn’t been great from JB whose best finish of the year came back in March when he finished 5^th at the Steyn City Championship, however there have undoubtedly been signs of life lately with a tie for 14^th at the Omega Masters, where he closed with a round of 64, and at Le Golf National where he went one better and tied for 13^th and gained strokes on every SG measurement.

A stint in Spain over the next few weeks may help produce the kind of season-ending form that Hansen needs if he harbours any lingering thoughts of making the season-ending DP World Tour Championship from a lowly 147^th at present. A win and 5 top-10 finishes on Spanish soil is a solid enough foundation at lower levels over the years, and JB’s also finished 4^th and 24^th here at Club de Campo from his two attempts at this track. RESULT: T27

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The trials and tribulations of Andrew Wilson’s career caught the headlines last year when he produced something of a miracle to gain his DP World Tour card for 2022 at the Challenge Tour’s Grand Final in November.

Sitting in the final card-earning spot heading into the 2^nd tier’s finale, an opening round of 75 put him at the foot of the leaderboard and staring at another season at the lower level. More solid middle rounds put him vaguely back in the picture, however it was 4 birdies in his final 5 holes on Sunday – with three consecutive putts from outside of 25 feet made on the final three holes – that eventually earned him a shot at the top level this year.

After all that elation, this season hasn’t really gone to plan. His best result came on Spanish soil back in April, finishing 7^th at the ISPS Handa Championship courtesy of a strong week on and around the greens. 13 missed cuts before last week’s Dunhill Links hasn’t helped his cause, however there’s been an improvement of late as he seeks to sneak into the top 120 or thereabouts of the season-long rankings to give himself a fighting chance of retaining his card. 16^th at the Italian Open came after a slow start which threatened another weekend off, whereas 26^th at the Open de France saw the 28 year-old inside the top 10 before falling away on the Sunday.

An opening 5-under round at Kingsbarns before the weather closed in was further signs of positivity and he can build on his recent improvement in form this week on a straightforward course which doesn’t present so much of a disadvantage in terms of lack of prior experience.

Spain has generally been a positive location for the Englishman over his relatively short professional career, with 7 top-20 finishes at all levels from his last 10 starts. 6^th at the PGA Catalunya Championship on the Nordic circuit and 3^rd at the Emporda Challenge last year are the highlights aside from his aforementioned effort at DP World Tour level, and he should see this stretch of Iberian golf over the next few weeks as a good opportunity to secure his playing privileges for next year. RESULT: MC