Open de Portugal Tips 2020

After refusing last week’s predictor no.1 selection George Coetzee due to his short price and being proved completely wrong, eating humble pie and backing him here in a weaker field to make it 3 wins in consecutive weeks did briefly cross my mind – until I saw his price that is. As clear as the gulf between the South African and his fellow competitors is this week, there’s still no guarantee in this game and I’ll happily pass and should he win again then so be it.

Of those close to the top of the market, Craig Howie was tempting given that he’s recorded two top-5 finishes in 5 starts since lockdown was eased, however again he’s no bargain at 22/1. Instead I’m going to take a punt on a former OWGR top-50 player who should be suited to the risk/reward nature of this track, and that’s Marcel Siem.

Having hit 40 in July, the 4-time European Tour winner will have reached that point in his career and life where it’s either the accelerator pedal or contentment with what he’s achieved thus far, however perhaps wins from the likes of Marc Warren and Stewart Cink either side of the Atlantic recently may act as a reminder that players can still remain competitive despite the prevalence of many young and talented golfers out there.

Fact is, aside from Coetzee and Jamie Donaldson at the head of affairs, and maybe a handful of others if we’re being generous, few here this week can boast the kind of CV that the German can including a World Cup win, Race To Dubai Final Series victory and success at the Open de France when it rated as one of the more prestigious tournaments on the circuit.

Looking at the raw facts that we have from this week, exposed tracks with a hint of coastal golf works for Marcel, as do those with bentgrass-based greens. 8^th in this event in the distant past and 4^th at Vilamoura ticks the Portugal form box and he’s also finished runner-up at the Ballesteros re-design at Crans-sur-Sierre. Assuming that the card isn’t changed for the event then 18^th for par-3 scoring for the season-to-date and 1^st for par-5 scoring would also appear to fit nicely given what we know at this stage of proceedings.

3 cuts made from 4 starts since the European Tour restarted is positive and the solitary missed weekend came after his first contending performance for some considerable time, as he entered the final day at the Wales Open the week before in 6^th place before fading. Some positive signs for sure and in this drop in class I’m happy to take on the field with an each-way punt on the German. RESULT: T53

One of the more eye-catching lines in this week’s current form stats page is from Frenchman Julien Brun. Extending his recent run of results back to the start of 2020 we can see just how competitive he’s been, recording finishes of 12/1/16/11/6/1/3/8/2/5/8 as he’s pushed into the world’s top 500 and a career-high position in the last few weeks.

Now current form is only as good as the level at which it’s being played and it’s fair to say that most of the these numbers have come on the Pro Golf Tour which is clearly a rung or two lower than the depths that we’re plumbing this week, however it does show that his game is in a good space regardless. In addition, the 6^th place finish wedged in the middle of that sequence was at the Euram Bank Open and in a similar quality of field to this, pitched as it is at the same co-sanctioned European/Challenge Tour level.

The 28 year-old’s uptick in form swiftly followed a change of coaching staff last year as he’s looked to rekindle the promise that he showed when winning his very first start at Challenge Tour level on home soil at the Allianz Golf Open back in 2012 as an amateur, holding off the likes of Eddie Pepperell, Mike Lorenzo Vera and Peter Uihlein into the bargain.

A further win on the Alps Tour in 2017 also stands out on his CV, and 4 career wins from exactly 100 professional starts does suggest there’s something about the Texas Christian University graduate. 3^rd at Guardian Bon Sucesso Golf, a track that’s a mile or so away from this week’s venue, on the Alps Tour in 2018 also adds a little encouragement and in this weak field I’m happy to take a chance on him. RESULT: T11

Another player with a strong winning record at a lower level is Liam Johnston and he’s also worthy of an investment after recording his best round in professional tournament play last week at Vilamoura.

2018 was the breakthrough year career-wise for the Scot as he followed up an early-season victory on the Pro Golf Tour with a win at the Match Play 9 Challenge Tour event on the Challenge Tour, before winning his first strokeplay Challenge Tour title in Kazakhstan this week 2 years ago.

The 27 year-old’s rookie European Tour season last year, earned courtesy of those aforementioned efforts, wasn’t exactly plain sailing with 15 missed cuts from 26 starts, however finishes of 8^th at the Magical Kenya Open and 5^th at the Czech Masters both offer some encouragement for this week and in both instances he held his ground after a solid opening 2 days. Overall though a lost card was inevitable given his lack of consistency which makes opportunities such as this given his partial status category all the more important.

15^th at the Wales Open where he sat in 2^nd place heading into the weekend was encouraging and he backed that up with a 14^th place finish last week in Portugal following his sparkling opening round of 61. 2^nd for Total Driving when making the cut at The Belfry in the event wedged between those two efforts adds further encouragement and with a level playing field course-wise this week, I can see him improving further on those recent efforts. RESULT: MC

Finally, in a field largely devoid of regular European Tour players, many of this week’s attendees will be relatively unknown to all but the most studious of punters. One such player who’s got a better chance than his odds suggest in my view is Andrew Wilson and I’ll back him here accordingly.

The Englishman has only registered 18 OWGR-rated starts since turning professional 2 years ago, however in that time he’s recorded a win and runner-up finish on the EuroPro Tour as well as his best Challenge Tour finish of 3^rd last time out at the Northern Ireland Open. 32^nd at the Open Championship last year is a result and experience that few in this field can compete with either, powered by a 2^nd round 67 that matched the efforts of eventual winner Shane Lowry, runner-up Tommy Fleetwood and current world number 1 Dustin Johnson. If his career were to end right now, that would be something to tell the grandkids if nothing else.

Aside from the visible results on his professional record, it’s worth nothing that the 26 year-old shot a round of 59 at the Bamburgh Castle pro-am a fortnight ago, then proceeded to lip-out on the final hole for another 59 the following day at Carus Green GC in another small pro-am. Yes, these rounds need to be taken into context, however what it does demonstrate is that Wilson is playing some very tidy golf right now and he clearly took that form into his aforementioned effort in Northern Ireland where a 3^rd round 64 gave him a chance of taking the title. A closing 67 wasn’t quite good enough, but he’s clearly buoyed by his form judging by social media and could be a relative surprise package here this week. RESULT: T3