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Another each-way return with 125/1 shot Chesson Hadley last week for the column, but again a case of what could have been. In Brian Harman, Jon Rahm and now Rickie Fowler we’ve had three 36-hole/54-hole leaders across the last 4 tournaments, but no winners and only a single each-way return! Golf betting can be a cruel mistress, but we move from the desert of Arizona to the beautiful Carmel Bay on the Pacific Coast for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, which is played across 3 courses, hoping for a change of luck this weekend.

Course Guide: The AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am is a full-field event played over 3 different courses to allow such a large field including amateur partners. The iconic Pebble Beach Golf Links is the host course and all competitors play the course once before the 54 hole cut is made. At this point, the best 25 Pro-Am teams play Sunday with the top 60 professionals also playing the final round. Spyglass Hill Golf Club and the Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula Country Club host the other 2 rounds of play. All courses are sub-7,000 yards in length, with the Shore Course playing as a rather unique Par 71 with three par-5s on the inward half making for a lopsided 34-37 course split. The courses are undoubtedly tricky with Spyglass invariably playing the hardest of the three, but in effect they only play as tough as the weather conditions dictate with in-form players always able to shoot low scores on the poa annua greens.

Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, California: Designer: Neville and Grant 1919 with Connor and Palmer 2007; Course Type: Coastal, Classical; Par: 72; Length: 6,816 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 0; Fairways: Perennial Rye; Rough: Perennial Rye 2″; Greens: 3,500 sq.ft average Poa Annua; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 71.86 (-0.14), Difficulty Rank 24 of 49 courses. 2013: 71.41 (-0.59), Difficulty Rank 29 of 43 courses. 2014: 73.39 (+1.39), Rank 7 of 48 courses. 2015: 70.24 (-1.76), Rank 45 of 52 courses. 2016: 72.50 (+0.5), Rank 16 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.90 (-0.10), Rank 26 of 50 courses.

Spyglass Hill GC: Designer: Trent Jones Senior, 1966; Par: 72; Length: 6,953 yards; Greens: 5,000 sq.ft average Poa Annua; Tournament Stimp: 10ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 72.58 (+0.58), Difficulty Rank 18 of 49 courses. 2013: 72.64 (+0.64), Difficulty Rank 11 of 43 courses. 2014: 72.76 (+1.76), Rank 11 of 48 courses. 2015: 71.20 (-0.80), Rank 32 of 52 courses. 2016: 72.51 (+0.51), Rank 15 of 50 courses. 2017: 72.20 (+0.20), Rank 20 of 50 courses.

Monterey Peninsula CC – Shore Course. Designer: Baldock and Neville, 1959, with Strantz re-design 2003; Par: 71 (2014); Length: 6,958 yards (extended 2017); Greens: 7,000 sq. ft average Poa Annua grass; Stimpmeter: 11.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 69.88 (-0.12), Difficulty Rank 23 of 49 courses. 2013: 70.24 (+0.24), Difficulty Rank 21 of 43 courses. 2014: 71.25 (+0.25), Rank 22 of 48 courses. 2015: 68.94 (-2.06), Rank 50 of 52 courses. 2016: 70.70 (-0.30), Rank 25 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.26 (+0.26), Rank 19 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for host course Pebble Beach and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 41 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:34 350:30.
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:30; 300:29; 325:29 350:29.
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:25 350:23.
• TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:30; 300:29; 325:29; 350:27.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:32; 300:33; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 54 yards wide; 275:58; 300:62; 325:57; 350:61.
• Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 39 yards wide; 275:38; 300:33; 325:29; 350:23.
• TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:26; 325:25; 350:24.
• CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:27; 300:28; 325:28; 350:24.
• Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:27; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.

Course Overview: There’s an undoubted link between Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines South Course. Yes, Pebble may be over 800 yards shorter than Torrey, but the courses share coastal locations and poa annua seeded greens. Green complexes also vary in size with the 5,800 sq.ft. average greens at Torrey a fortnight ago replaced by postage stamp sized 3,500 sq.ft. average greens at Pebble which are the smallest on Tour. Naturally though the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is played over a 3-course rota with Spyglass Hill GC and the Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula ably assisting the famous host course, which again hosts the 2019 U.S. Open – its seventh Major Championship. Spyglass and Monterey are similar to Pebble in the fact that they have real teeth if the weather is non-compliant. In tranquil conditions, all 3 courses are more than scoreable.

Wide off the tee, where even the most wayward of drivers can hit over 1 in 2 fairways, host course Pebble Beach is a second-shot classical golf course. The track is fairly unremarkable statistically unless the elements really close in. 2014-type conditions are unlikely this year, so instead we should see plenty of par breakers – but only for those who are comfortable on the poa annua greens. Key stats are that the green complexes at Pebble are traditionally some of the hardest to putt on from within 10 feet on the Tour. Miss the green and scrambling from distance becomes a real problem (2nd hardest last year for Scrambling > 30 yards), as does making par from Pebble’s notorious bunkers. All as ever depends on the elements this week with regards target scoring, but the nature of this being a Pro-Am dictates that this only becomes a stiff test when conditions are dour.

Winners: 2017: Jordan Spieth (-19); 2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17); 2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22); 2014: Jimmy Walker (-11); 2013: Brandt Snedeker (-19); 2012: Phil Mickelson (-17); 2011: D.A. Points (-15); 2010: Dustin Johnson (-16).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Chesson Hadley, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Brandt Snedeker, Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Pat Perez, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed and Matt Kuchar.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the Shriners Open / Turkish Airlines Open and includes PGA Tour and European Tour events, plus the Hero World Challenge. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Ken Duke; 2) Ryan Armour; 3) Chez Reavie; 4) K.J. Choi; 5) Pat Perez; 6) Kevin Kisner; 7) Paul Casey; 8) Patrick Cantlay; 9) Austin Cook / Billy Horschel / Colt Knost / Kevin Streelman / Brian Stuard; 14) Brice Garnett; 15) Brian Gay; 16) David Lingmerth; 17) Jon Rahm; 18) Bryson DeChambeau; 19) Vaughn Taylor; 20) Tyler Duncan / Ben Martin.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Jordan Spieth; 2) Kevin Streelman; 3) Billy Horschel; 4) Dustin Johnson; 5) Chez Reavie; 6) Kevin Kisner / Shane Lowry / Pat Perez; 9) Patrick Cantlay / Scott Piercy; 11) Matt Kuchar; 12) Bryson DeChambeau / Russell Knox; 14) Kevin Chappell; 15) Corey Conners / Rory McIlroy; 18) Branden Grace; 19) Jason Kokrak / Andrew Putnam; 20) Austin Cook / Charley Hoffman / Sam Ryder / Gary Woodland.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Dustin Johnson; 2) Padraig Harrington; 3) Phil Mickelson; 4) Jon Rahm; 5) Matt Kuchar; 6) Kevin Kisner; 7) Chris Stroud; 8) Rafael Cabrera-Bello; 9) James Hahn / Maverick McNealy; 11) Gary Woodland; 12) Dominic Bozzelli / Whee Kim / Vaughn Taylor; 15) Brian Gay / Peter Malnati; 17) Branden Grace; 18) David Lingmerth; 19) Austin Cook / Retief Goosen / Cody Gribble / Ben Martin / Pat Perez.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Spieth 9/1; 2016: Taylor 300/1; 2015: Snedeker 25/1; 2014: Walker 28/1; 2013: Snedeker 14/1; 2012: Mickelson 25/1; 2011: Points 80/1; 2010: Johnson 22/1; Average: 63/1. Past 4 Renewals Average: 91/1.

Historical Weather:

2017: Thursday: Mostly cloudy in the morning with moderate to heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Wind S 10-15 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Due to unplayable conditions, play was suspended at 1:34 PST. Friday: Rainy with a high of 60. Wind WSW 5-10 mph. The second round was suspended for the day due to fog at 4:21 p.m. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 59. Wind NNW 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny with a high of 61. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

2016: Thursday: Sunny, and warm with a high of 75 degrees. Wind W 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 64 degrees. Wind NW 7-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 63 degrees. Wind WNW 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Due to fog, the start of round three was delayed 30 minutes. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 69. Wind NW 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph.

2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 76. Wind SW at 7-12 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with a high of 60. E wind at 5-10 mph with periods of light showers throughout the day. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 57. Wind light and variable. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 68. Wind WSW at 6-8 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Pebble Beach, California is here. Some rain (110mm) in January will leave the course in a lush state, but with no rain forecast for tournament week expect conditions which are faster than 12 months ago. Light wind looks a feature throughout apart from Saturday afternoon, where winds up to 20mph will cause a few problems on the host course for the marquee TV groups.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the 8 winners of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:

• 2017, Jordan Spieth (-19). 284 yards (26th), 78.2% fairways (14th), 79.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 27’11” proximity to hole (10th), 73.3 % scrambling (8th), 1.67 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2016, Vaughn Taylor (-17). 289 yards (40th), 69.1% fairways (38th), 75.0% greens in regulation (2nd), 25’3″ proximity to hole (3rd), 55.6 % scrambling (60th), 1.56 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2015, Brandt Snedeker (-22). 284 yards (48th), 70.9% fairways (38th), 81.9% greens in regulation (3rd), 27’11” proximity to hole (24th), 92.3 % scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (16th).
• 2014, Jimmy Walker (-11). 282 yards (22nd), 56.4% fairways (59th), 70.8% greens in regulation (6th), 35’6″ proximity to hole (26th), 81.0 % scrambling (2nd), 1.75 putts per GIR (14th).
• 2013, Brandt Snedeker (-19). 277 yards (41st), 78.2% fairways (14th), 77.8% greens in regulation (6th), 27’10” proximity to hole (19th), 75.0% scrambling (6th), 1.64 putts per GIR (6th).
• 2012, Phil Mickelson (-17). 273 yards (58th), 61.8% fairways (62nd), 75.0% greens in regulation (5th), 29’1″ proximity to hole (11th), 77.8% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2011, D.A. Points (-15). 286 yards (40th), 80.4% fairways (9th), 69.4% greens in regulation (19th), 30’11” proximity to hole (15th), 50.0% scrambling (47th), 1.60 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2010, Dustin Johnson (-16). 303 yards (1st), 75.0% fairways (15th), 80.6% greens in regulation (3rd), N/A proximity to hole, 35.7% scrambling (64th), 1.65 putts per GIR (7th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 35th, Driving Accuracy: 31st, Greens in Regulation: 6th, Proximity to Hole: 15th, Scrambling: 23rd, Putting Average 7th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the 3 courses and tournament format affects play:

Jordan Spieth [on Pebble]: “Yeah, on this type of poa annua, it’s still going to be very soft and spinny. Even on this course I was hitting low 9-irons or 8-irons and they were coming backwards a few feet. Normally those skip five yards forward. So it’s very difficult to throw the ball with a lot of extra club and hit it low and land it back by the pin. It’s difficult to do because we almost never have to do it. So, very rarely do we actually practice it or can trust it in a tournament setting. Holes like number 4 today, when you’ve got to hit an 85 yard shot and you got to hit a gap wedge and fly it 85 when it’s normally just a perfect number for a 630 degree, it’s just an abnormal thing for us to do and to get our brains wrapped around. That’s going to stay that way. The course isn’t going to change much tomorrow, in my opinion. It’s just not getting hot enough, it’s still too early. But, yeah, so it will be kind of dart throwing contest again and who can make the putts. And Sneds has won here I think twice and I think we’re playing with him. He’s going to be somebody who can very easily, I mean, I say very easily, but he’s somebody who can go out there and shoot 7-, 8-under tomorrow. So, I’ve got to set a goal and stay real patient, try not to make many mistakes, hit a lot of greens in regulation.“

Justin Rose [on Spyglass]: “That was actually my first look at Spyglass. I came out here the other day and went around a couple of holes checking it out, but I picked the wrong one not to play, because it’s a pretty tough course. There’s some strong holes on it. And I heard some strange reports about Spyglass, like the first few holes are great then it disappears into the hills and it’s not that good. That’s not what I saw. That’s a pretty stellar golf course to me and really enjoyed playing it. All the courses in the rotation have impressed me this year.“

Justin Rose [on Monterrey Peninsula]: “The greens aren’t as good here. They’re bouncing a little bit, but they’re also really quick. So kind of quick and bouncy. My last hole of the day I had a beautiful 6-iron in to about seven feet and had maybe a 6, 8 inch break in it. I knew I was trying to lag it and I missed low and suddenly had four feet coming back up the hill. So there was some very awkward putts out there today. But the putts are makeable, but also if you’re not seeing them go in early, it’s the one course that maybe gets in your head a little bit. But the greens at Spyglass and Pebble are a little firmer and they’re rolling really well. I think I need to learn Pebble a bit more, a bit better. This is the course that probably gave me more trouble than the other two. That’s why it’s a U.S. Open venue, because it’s got some subtleties to it. But I really enjoyed it. I really enjoyed the whole week, the courses are in great shape the weather was perfect.“

Brandt Snedeker: “I love the greens here, I love the golf courses, the greens are poa annua, which I’m a big fan of. And I love the format. I have played the last four years with a good friend. To come out here and play these golf course, this year, you’re not going to get a better conditioned golf course, perfect weather, everything has been ideal and there’s not a better place to be in the country right now than right here and this tournament. So I have a lot of fun when I come out here and it’s a fun feeling when you’re playing good out on the West Coast.“

Jordan Spieth: “I enjoy the pro am part of it. Even though it’s a long round, we get good food, it’s a nice change of pace, good food, you’re kind of laughing down the fairways. It’s like you’re playing around on the weekend. Some guys don’t like the pace of play or a lot of guys just don’t like poa annua greens, guys that grew up on Bermuda grew up in the south or even guys that grew up in the northeast are used to primarily bent grass or Bermuda grass and they, three different golf courses all with poa annua that maybe they think putt a little different. It’s just a tough adjustment when you get in Monday night or something to try and get to know the places that week really quickly. Whether it’s that, whether it’s the changing around a few golf courses or it’s the slow rounds, not sure. I certainly really like this golf course and a lot of the legends of the game have liked these courses.“

Jimmy Walker: “I don’t mind the format. The format’s great. I’ve enjoyed all my partners I’ve ever had here. I think everybody that’s here is a good person. I’ve had some good players. We have done well in the past team wise, too. So, you know the rounds are going to be a little longer. But there’s no better place to hang out on a golf course for five and a half, six hours if the weather’s good it’s really nice. If it’s bad it’s a little dicey, but I think it’s a cool format. I enjoy playing golf with friends at home and I’ve made some pretty good friends out here doing the pro am stuff. You just got to get over the fact that it’s going to take awhile. A lot of guys don’t like it.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 8 AT&T Pebble National winners:

• 2017 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2016 – Vaughn Taylor: Round 1: 48th, Round 2: 18th, Round 3: 8th.
• 2015 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2014 – Jimmy Walker: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2013 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2012 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 59th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2011 – D.A. Points: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 4th.
• 2010 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 1st, Round 2 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Jordan Spieth: 9th TPC Scottsdale/3rd Waialae/3rd Kapalua/3rd World Challenge.
• Vaughn Taylor: MC Columbia/MC Sea Island/20th Sanderson/24th web.com TC.
• Brandt Snedeker: 19th Torrey/10th TPC Scottsdale/MC PGA West/10th HSBC.
• Jimmy Walker: MC Torrey/1st Waialae/21st Kapalua/46th HSBC.
• Brandt Snedeker: 2nd TPC Scottsdale/2nd Torrey/23rd PGA West/3rd Kapalua.
• Phil Mickelson: 26th TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey/49th PGA West.
• D.A. Points: 22nd TPC Scottsdale/8th Torrey/42nd PGA West.
• Dustin Johnson: 3rd Riviera/MC Torrey/16th Waialae/16th Kapalua.

As a three course Pro-Am, it’s well worth looking at the course rotation to see if there’s any draw bias. Since Monterey Peninsula was added to the tournament course rota for the 2013 renewal, traditionally it has played by far the easiest course – 4 par 5’s on a par-71 format clearly helps. In calm conditions across both 2013 and 2015, Snedeker took advantage of Monterey in Round 1 to set up his challenge. However in breezy conditions, both Pebble Beach and Spyglass become far more of a challenge – Walker avoided both of them when bad conditions hit on the Saturday back in 2014, with Taylor, in 2016, playing Monterey on Saturday when wind conditions were gusting 20 mph.

2017 though saw changes to the natural order. An additional 89 yards on Monterey’s Shore Course helped to stiffen the challenge, with the result that it topped the scoring averages from Spyglass Hill, with Pebble Beach being the easiest of the 3 courses. Spieth played Monterey when the weather was at its worst on the Thursday. As far as any bias goes, 3 of the past 5 winners have started on Monterey with the other 2 starting on the host course. Make of that what you will.

• 2017: Spieth: Monterey 68, Spyglass 65, Pebble 65.
• 2016: Taylor: Pebble 70, Spyglass 68, Monterey 67.
• 2015: Snedeker: Monterey 64, Spyglass 67, Pebble 67.
• 2014: Walker: Pebble 66, Spyglass 69, Monterey 67
• 2013: Snedeker: Monterey 66, Spyglass 68, Pebble 68.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 8 – Dustin Johnson.
• 4 – Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker, Bubba Watson.
• 3 – Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, Jimmy Walker.
• 2 – J.J. Henry, Hunter Mahan, Scott Piercy, Vijay Singh, Jordan Spieth.
• 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Sang-moon Bae, Jonas Blixt, Greg Chalmers, Ben Crane, James Hahn, Padraig Harrington, Billy Horschel, Russell Knox, Matt Kuchar, Shane Lowry, Graeme McDowell, William McGirt, Sean O’Hair, D.A. Points, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, Scott Stallings, Steve Stricker, Chris Stroud, Vaughn Taylor, Nick Watney, Gary Woodland.

The Pebble Beach Pro-Am is always a memorable tournament although the coverage can be extremely painful to watch. Recent winners include Tiger Woods, Davis Love III (x2), Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson (x3), Dustin Johnson (x2), Jimmy Walker, Brandt Snedeker (x2) and defending champion Jordan Spieth with Matt Gogel, Aaron Oberholser, Steve Lowery, D.A. Points and Vaughn Taylor thrown in for good measure. My take on the tournament is that a number of elite players always seem to contend – as you’d expect, in most cases quality vanquishes the lesser opposition, but in the case of Lowery, Points and Taylor, they defeated Vijay Singh, Hunter Mahan and Phil Mickelson respectively to capture their career biggest tournament titles.

Experience at Pebble Beach is another key factor. Dustin Johnson’s win here in 2009 came on only his second appearance at the tournament, but his liking for the format was already plain to see as he’d finished 7th on debut the previous year. Johnson went on to defend his title in 2010 and since then players with 4, 16, 6, 6, 7, 8 and 4 previous appearances have triumphed. The specialist nature of golf here can be seen in the fact that every winner here since Aaron Oberholser (2006) had delivered a top 21 finish at Pebble prior to their victory. The close association with Torrey Pines can’t be overlooked either or the liking for the West Coast swing in general.

Taking that last statement a step further, going back to Dustin Johnson the 2009 and 2010 champion, he’d already finished 10th at Waialae, 12th at PGA West and 7th at Pebble Beach in his rookie season of 2008 before triumphing here in consecutive years. The 2010 victory came off a 3rd at Riviera. D.A. Points had a liking for Torrey Pines with 2 top-9 finishes and an 8th in San Diego prior to winning this. Phil Mickelson had won 17 times on the West Coast including 3 Pebble National titles. Brandt Snedeker had won at Torrey Pines and had a number of high West Coast finishes across Kapalua, PGA West, TPC Scottsdale and a top 10 in the U.S. Open here, whilst Jordan Spieth had won at Kapalua and had finished 4th and 7th here prior to his victory here least year. Even Vaughn Taylor had captured both of his 2 PGA Tour titles at Montreux in Nevada and had a strong profile of finishes across Kapalua, PGA West, TPC Scottsdale and a top 10 here at Pebble Beach, although anyone picking him out to win this at 300/1 hopefully bought a lottery ticket the same week.

My selections are as follows: