Happy New Year to you all, and welcome to 2023 on the PGA Tour.
The PGA Tour year begins as ever on the island of Maui, Hawaii. The traditional Tournament of Champions event is always a tricky betting heat on a spectacular and unique coastal course. Only Rory McIlroy is a no-show, leaving a high quality 39-player field to slug it out for this well-respected title.
Any field featuring including 17 of the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking has to get the betting juices flowing. The usual suspects are here this week in Hawaii, plus we have fascinating tournament debutants like Matt Fitzpatrick, Tom Kim, Sahith Theegala, Cameron Young and Will Zalatoris all adding to the intrigue, with players and punters looking to make a fast start to 2023.
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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Sentry Tournament of Champions we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: From a course design perspective, Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw these days are most famously known for their renovation masterpiece at Pinehurst Number 2 and the inland faux links-style course at Trinity Forest in Dallas, Texas. However their Plantation Course design at Kapalua, which was opened in 1991, is no ordinary golf course as it sits perched above the Pacific Ocean. A Par 73 format which is unique on the PGA Tour, the course is synonymous with long drives, aggressive play and impressively low scoring. Scratch a little deeper though and it becomes apparent that the course can be mastered just as well by shorter, accurate types who can putt the lights out over 4 days of competition.
2020 saw Plantation open its doors to a fresh renovation, again managed by Coore and Crenshaw. A $12 million tee-to-green project, every part of the 28 year old course was re-worked including tee boxes, bunkers, fairways, drainage and green complexes. It’s done little though to make this course more difficult, and like all coastal courses it plays as difficult as the strength and direction of the wind.
The Plantation Course at Kapalua, Lahaina, Hawaii: Designer: Coore & Crenshaw, 1991, with 2019 renovation; Course Type: Coastal, Resort, Long; Par: 73; Length: 7,596 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 0; Acres of Fairway: 44.5; Fairways Celebration Bermudagrass; Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass, 2.5″; Greens: 8,722 sq.ft average featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 11ft. Course Scoring Average 2012: 70.44 (-2.66), Difficulty Rank 48 of 49 courses. 2013: 72.11 (-0.89), Difficulty Rank 32 of 43 courses. 2014: 70.58 (-2.42), Rank 47 of 48 courses. Course Scoring Average 2015: 69.93 (-3.07), Difficulty Rank 52 of 52 courses. 2016: 69.81 (-3.19), Difficulty Rank 50 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.38 (-2.64), Difficulty Rank 50 of 50 courses. 2018: 71.22 (-1.78), Difficulty Rank 47 of 51 courses. 2019: 70.92 (-2.08), Difficulty Rank 44 of 49 courses. 2020: 72.22 (-0.78), Difficulty Rank 20 of 41 courses. 2021: 69.32 (-3.68), Difficulty Rank 51 of 51 courses. 2022: 68.22 (-4.78), Difficulty Rank 50 of 50 courses.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Coore/Crenshaw designs include:
Pinehurst Number 2 – 2014 U.S. Open
Trinity Forest Golf Club – 2018/19 AT&T Byron Nelson
Sea Island Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the Plantation Course and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
Course Overview: Let’s start by headlining the Coore and Crenshaw renovation on the Plantation Course which we saw for the first time in competition in 2020. Firmer and flatter putting surfaces were undoubtedly the biggest carry-away, with the winning score of -14/278 a significant shift from previous low-scoring renewals. But since then, lighter winds and more established green complexes have seen scoring back to what we expect here at Kapalua. Harris English and Joaquin Niemann both scored -25/267 to make a play-off in 2021 and last year saw Cameron Smith, Jon Rahm and Matt Jones shoot -34/258, -33/259 and -32/260 respectively. Naturally the Plantation Course was the easiest on the PGA Tour schedule last season.
Other key parts of the 2019 work included re-positioned tee boxes which take into account the fact that Maui now receives less wind than it did when the original course was designed. Hole yardages changed therefore, with total yardage up 78 yards to 7,596 yards. Bunkers were re-positioned and the whole course was re-grassed with Celebration Bermudagrass from tee to green and TifEagle Bermudagrass on the green surfaces. Many greens were re-contoured, as were green entrances. Quite significant changes all in all which saw experienced Kapalua hands having to re-visit their detailed course notes.
Plantation seems long at circa 7,600 yards, but the course plays as a Par 73 via a unique 36/37 Par split and is famous for having 11 par-4s and only 3 par-3s. In total the layout features 8 sub-425 yard par-4s. With wedge in hand, this makes it possible to score heavily on the 4 short holes, especially on the back-9. The course has the largest amount of elevation changes on the whole PGA Tour, creating blind shots and plenty of uneven lies. Large greens feature 2019 laid TifEagle Bermudagrass carpet, with less severe contours overall. They were far more receptive last year and scoring tumbled as a result.
The key to this test tends to be top-class wind play (not too relevant in 2023 seemingly) allied to conquering the uniquely contoured and huge 8,700+ sq.ft average green complexes. Eagles and birdies are on offer to those who can putt well on greens where getting close to the hole is a particularly difficult task – indeed Kapalua traditionally ranks inside the top 10 most difficult courses in terms of Proximity to Hole every year. Tie the difficulty in getting close to the pin in with the fact that putts are tremendously difficult to read, with grain a huge feature and that there are huge variances in putting speed dependant on whether a putt is uphill, flat or downhill.
The scoring at Kapalua is always shaped by the strength of the local winds. For 2023 winds will be remarkably light, so expect a complete resort scoring-level festival of a tournament.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Winners: 2022: Cameron Smith (-34); 2021: Harris English (-25); 2020: Justin Thomas (-14); 2019: Xander Schauffele (-23); 2018: Dustin Johnson (-24); 2017: Justin Thomas (-22); 2016: Jordan Spieth (-30); 2015: Patrick Reed (-21); 2014: Zach Johnson (-19); 2013: Dustin Johnson (-15, 54 holes); 2012: Steve Stricker (-23); 2011: Jonathan Byrd (-24); 2010: Geoff Ogilvy (-22).
OWGR of Sentry Tournament of Champions Winners: 2022: Smith 21: English 29; 2020: Thomas 4; 2019: Schauffele 11; 2018: D Johnson 1; 2017: Thomas 22.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats | SG Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are:- Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Seamus Power, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa and Sungjae Im.
Sentry Winners & Prices: 2022: Cameron Smith 28/1; 2021: Harris English 33/1; 2020: Justin Thomas 11/2; 2019: Xander Schauffele 22/1; 2018: Dustin Johnson 15/2; 2017: Justin Thomas 22/1; 2016: Spieth 5/1; 2015: Reed 22/1; 2014: Zach Johnson 14/1; 2013: Dustin Johnson 14/1; 2012: Stricker 17/2; 2011: Byrd 50/1; 2010: Ogilvy 9/1. Past 9 Renewals Average: 18/1; Overall Average: 19/1.
For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.
Historical Weather:
2022: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind NE 10-18 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 79. Wind N 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 79. Wind N/NE 8-16 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 79. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 82. Wind ENE 9-18 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon, with a high of 82. Wind N/NE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with mostly sunny skies, high of 80. Wind E/NE 8-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 81. Wind ENE 12-17 mph, gusting to 22 mph.
2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 80. Wind N/NE 16-22 mph. Friday: Heavy morning showers turning to a mixture of clouds and sunshine in the afternoon. High of 79. Wind NE 20-30 mph, with gusts to 35 mph. Saturday: Scattered morning showers with rain decreasing in the afternoon. High of 79. Wind NE 15-25 mph, with gusts over 30 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 80. Wind ENE 20-30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph.
2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 79. Wind ENE 14-22 mph, with gusts to 31 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 79. Wind ENE 15-25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 79. Wind ENE 10-16 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind NNW 5-10 mph.
2018: Thursday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 77. Wind ENE 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 78. Wind ENE 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 77. Wind ENE 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 77. Wind ENE 18-28 mph, with gusts to 35 mph.
2017: Thursday: Mostly clear skies with an isolated shower in the afternoon. High of 73. Wind NNE 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 75. Wind NNE 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 75. Wind NNE 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 76. Wind ENE 10-15 mph.
2016: Thursday: Sunny and warm. High of 81. Wind N at 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny and warm. High of 81. Wind WSW at 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 80. Wind SW at 10-20 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 81. Wind at W 6-12 mph.
2015: Friday: Partly cloudy and warm, with temperatures in the high-70s. ESE wind shifting W at 10-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. ENE wind at 10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 80. Wind WSW at 10 mph. Monday: Mostly sunny. High of 80. Wind WSW at 10 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Maui is here.
We’ve seen rain in the build-up to this event, but nowhere near the amount prior to 2022, so I’m not expecting quite so receptive conditions as say for the opening 36 holes last year. There is a small threat of rain on Wednesday, but all-in-all I’d expect the prodigious Plantation course fairway roll-outs we expect here. Green speeds should also be faster than we saw in 2022. The only true defence of this course is plenty of wind, and forecasts suggest more than we saw 12 months ago. With 10-15 mph Trade (north easterly) winds across the opening 54 holes, I’d still expect scoreable conditions, but I can’t see them being as amazingly low as we saw in 2022. Temperatures will be a pleasant 23 degrees Celsius throughout.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Shriners Open / Open de Espana, which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Patrick Cantlay; 2) Tony Finau; 3) Sungjae Im; 4) Scottie Scheffler; 5) Jon Rahm; 6) Justin Thomas; 7) K.H. Lee; 8) Collin Morikawa; 9) Viktor Hovland; 10) Tom Kim; 11) Jordan Spieth; 12) Corey Conners / Matt Fitzpatrick; 14) Tom Hoge; 15) Keegan Bradley / Luke List; 17) Cameron Young; 18) Brian Harman; 19) Russell Henley; 20) Max Homa / J.J. Spaun; 22) Billy Horschel; 23) J.T. Poston; 24) Hideki Matsuyama; 25) Sam Burns.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Billy Horschel; 2) Cameron Young; 3) Tom Kim / Collin Morikawa; 5) Tony Finau; 6) Jon Rahm; 7) Corey Conners; 8) Brian Harman; 9) Keegan Bradley; 10) Tom Hoge; 11) K.H. Lee; 12) Scottie Scheffler; 13) J.T. Poston; 14) Max Homa / Viktor Hovland / Adam Svensson; 17) Sungjae Im; 18) Trey Mullinax / J.J. Spaun; 20) Matt Fitzpatrick / Chad Ramey / Sepp Straka; 23) Seamus Power; 24) Justin Thomas; 25) Luke List.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Jon Rahm; 2) Viktor Hovland; 3) Billy Horschel; 4) Justin Thomas; 5) Aaron Wise; 6) Russell Henley; 7) Tom Kim; 8) Collin Morikawa; 9) Max Homa; 10) Luke List; 11) K.H. Lee; 12) Hideki Matsuyama / Sahith Theegala; 14) Cameron Young; 15) Jordan Spieth; 16) Scottie Scheffler; 17) Tony Finau / Sungjae Im; 19) Matt Fitzpatrick; 20) Corey Conners / Seamus Power; 22) Mackenzie Hughes; 23) Keegan Bradley; 24) Sam Burns; 25) J.T. Poston.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Jon Rahm; 2) Tony Finau; 3) Tom Kim / Collin Morikawa; 5) Billy Horschel; 6) K.H. Lee; 7) Cameron Young; 8) Scottie Scheffler; 9) Viktor Hovland; 10) Brian Harman; 11) Sungjae Im / Justin Thomas; 13) Corey Conners; 14) Patrick Cantlay; 15) Max Homa; 16) Keegan Bradley; 17) Tom Hoge / J.T. Poston; 19) Luke List; 20) Matt Fitzpatrick / Russell Henley; 22) J.J. Spaun; 23) Hideki Matsuyama / Sahith Theegala; 25) Seamus Power / Jordan Spieth.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Patrick Cantlay / Tony Finau; 3) Jon Rahm; 4) Aaron Wise; 5) Tom Kim; 6) Keegan Bradley; 7) Seamus Power; 8) Sahith Theegala; 9) Adam Svensson; 10) J.J. Spaun; 11) Brian Harman; 12) Sungjae Im; 13) Matt Fitzpatrick / Mackenzie Hughes; 15) Billy Horschel; 16) Max Homa / Viktor Hovland; 18) Corey Conners; 19) Jordan Spieth; 20) Trey Mullinax; 21) Hideki Matsuyama; 22) Tom Hoge; 23) Cameron Young; 24) Sepp Straka; 25) Ryan Brehm.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Patrick Cantlay; 2) Jon Rahm; 3) Xander Schauffele; 4) Jordan Spieth; 5) Keegan Bradley; 6) Brian Harman / Viktor Hovland / Tom Kim; 9) Scottie Scheffler; 10) Max Homa / Sungjae Im; 12) Corey Conners / Tony Finau; 14) Justin Thomas; 15) Collin Morikawa / Seamus Power; 17) J.J. Spaun / Sahith Theegala; 19) Cameron Young; 20) Matt Fitzpatrick; 21) Billy Horschel; 22) Tom Hoge / Aaron Wise; 24) K.H. Lee; 25) Russell Henley.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at the host Kapalua Plantation Course since 2016 click here.
Strokes Gained Stats: Analysing the strokes gained stats of the Sentry winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2022, Cameron Smith (-34). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 1st.
2021, Harris English (-25). SG Off the Tee: 8th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 25th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 1st.
2020, Justin Thomas (-14). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 8th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 13th.
2019, Xander Schauffele (-23). SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 3rd.
2018, Dustin Johnson (-24). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 6th.
2017, Justin Thomas (-22). SG Off the Tee: 3rd, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 4th.
2016, Jordan Spieth (-30). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 1st.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 4th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Sentry winners since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2022, Cameron Smith (-34). 303 yards (4th), 75.0% fairways (14th), 86.1% greens in regulation (5th), 34’9″ proximity to hole (20th), 80.0 % scrambling (9th), 1.55 putts per GIR (2nd).
2021, Harris English (-25). 277 yards (25th), 83.3% fairways (14th), 86.1% greens in regulation (3rd), 38’2″ proximity to hole (20th), 70.0 % scrambling (17th), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st).
2020, Justin Thomas (-14). 272 yards (11th), 78.3% fairways (19th), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 37’4″ proximity to hole (2nd), 43.8 % scrambling (32nd), 1.66 putts per GIR (2nd).
2019, Xander Schauffele (-23). 280 yards (14th), 78.3% fairways (15th), 81.9% greens in regulation (5th), 40’0″ proximity to hole (20th), 69.2 % scrambling (8th), 1.66 putts per GIR (2nd).
2018, Dustin Johnson (-24). 296 yards (2nd), 65.0% fairways (18th), 77.8% greens in regulation (8th), 45’8″ proximity to hole (23rd), 68.8 % scrambling (6th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st).
2017, Justin Thomas (-22). 302 yards (3rd), 73.3% fairways (17th), 87.5% greens in regulation (2nd), 32’8″ proximity to hole (3rd), 66.7 % scrambling (12th), 1.68 putts per GIR (1st).
2016, Jordan Spieth (-30). 284 yards (17th), 73.3% fairways (12th), 83.3% greens in regulation (11th), 34’11” proximity to hole (3rd), 83.3 % scrambling (3rd), 1.62 putts per GIR (1st).
2015, Patrick Reed (-21). 282 yards (4th), 66.7% fairways (27th), 80.6% greens in regulation (15th), 44’8″ proximity to hole (25th), 85.7 % scrambling (2nd), 1.69 putts per GIR (5th).
2014, Zach Johnson (-19). 267 yards (23rd), 83.3% fairways (8th), 77.8% greens in regulation (17th), 35’5″ proximity to hole (3rd), 81.3 % scrambling (2nd), 1.73 putts per GIR (9th).
2013, Dustin Johnson (-15). 280 yards (2nd), 51.1% fairways (30th), 88.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 36’6″ proximity to hole (2nd), 50.0% scrambling (18th), 1.75 putts per GIR (3rd).
2012, Steve Stricker (-23). 268 yards (15th), 66.7% fairways (11th), 81.9% greens in regulation (13th), 35’8″ proximity to hole (4th), 69.2% scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (2nd).
2011, Jonathan Byrd (-24). 273 yards (21st), 80.0% fairways (11th), 86.1% greens in regulation (10th), 34”11″ proximity to hole (10th), 70.0% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (8th).
2010, Geoff Ogilvy (-22). 274 yards (19th), 71.7% fairways (16th), 84.7% greens in regulation (12th), 37’10” proximity to hole (10th), 63.6% scrambling (2nd), 1.64 putts per GIR (1st).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 12th, Driving Accuracy: 16th, Greens in Regulation: 8th, Proximity to Hole: 11th, Scrambling: 9th, Putting Average 3rd.
So let’s take a view from players as to how the Plantation course sets up and what skills the course favours:
Cameron Smith (2022): “I got in here on Thursday last week, so the weather back in Jacksonville typically this time of year isn’t that great, so I wanted to give myself a little bit of time to get used to the course and also the time change and stuff like that. And, like I said, I haven’t been doing too much practice so being here made me practice and, yeah, it was good.
Started to feel really comfortable there, especially with the driver. Yeah, I mean, the course is still kind of receptive. It was nice to see a little bit of run in the fairways again today. But, yeah, there’s going to be low scores. There always is around here. And, yeah, just got to prepare for that the best I can and hopefully have a good weekend.
There’s such a low score out there you never know what can happen. I mean, it’s very gettable, there’s so many wedges, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s another 61 or 62 out there tomorrow. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, Hawaii reminds me so much of where I grew up, it’s insane. The grass that we hit off, the greens being quite slow and grainy. Yeah, it’s awesome, I love it here.”
Harris English (2021): “I saw Xander finish with a 62 last year and I know it’s out there. I mean, you drive the ball well out here, you’re going to have a lot of short irons, a lot of wedges, and you just got to get your putting dialled in. I feel like did I that today, gave myself a lot of chances, and rolled in a couple longer putts. Yeah, it was awesome. I got off to a really good start, making probably a 20-footer on No. 2, and that’s what you got to do out here. I love these Bermuda greens. I grew up on greens very similar to this. And just got hot with the putter. I felt like I was hitting the ball really welcoming into it, and I feel like my iron game is probably one of my strengths. And I think I only missed two or three greens out there today. I think I chipped one time, so a couple greens I did miss, I was still putting from the fringe. So just overall a really good ball-striking round and good putting round.”
“I know guys have different strategies, but I’m hitting driver a lot this week. I would say more so than a normal golf course. I mean, these fairways are wide, you can be as aggressive as you want to, but it’s still about putting the ball in the fairway. You start putting the ball in the rough, start missing greens, it’s tough to get up-and-down because these greens are pretty gnarly Bermuda grass around the greens and they’re pretty tough to lag putt out here.”
Justin Thomas (2020): “The thing is the pins were front on 1, 2 and 4, and if they’re downwind, you can’t get close to the hole unless you get lucky and land it short or make a long putt. I mean, I landed it literally two inches on the green on 2 and I had about a 45-footer from past the hole. That’s just how it is. Everyone has to play in those conditions, not just me. I understood that those were not really holes I was going to attack and make birdie unless I made a long putt, and I know the back nine you can make a lot of birdies, and I could have birdied nine of the last ten holes today really. I played really, really solidly the last half of the round.”
“Yeah, it was tough all day (Friday). It was windy all day. That rain was annoying a little bit in the start and not even remotely close to yesterday, but it was still enough in the beginning off and on to make it tough. I mean, it’s just tough out there. It’s tougher. I mean, it makes an easy golf course play harder. It’s the protection of the course. It’s meant to play that way, and with the newer, firmer greens, the scores are obviously a lot higher, and I think the wind and the weather is the cause of that.”
Xander Schauffele: “Yesterday I made a lot of mistakes on the back nine and being in San Diego, it’s hard to practice in a whole lot of wind. So we got a little more comfy today versus yesterday. Wind wise, it was pretty much east to, northeast, so it was the same direction. So the lines and everything else was the same for the most part. As a comfort aspect that definitely helped. Yeah, it’s an uncomfortable walk, but it will never get old and the views also won’t get old. So the more times you can play on a piece of property like this the more it will help.”
Dustin Johnson: “The first time you play it, maybe it’s a big golf course, the greens are really slopey and you kind of – and, too, when you’re playing practice rounds, the pins are always in some funny spots. But the more you play this golf course, the more you get used to it, the more you kind of know how to get yourself around it. Because sometimes it’s one of those courses where you really got to be on right side of the pin, whether you’re on the green or off the green, if you’re on the right side you know you can still make pars. But there’s a lot of opportunities for birdie. You got two holes that are somewhat drivable, four par-5s that you can reach. So it just all depends really. The greens are rolling pretty good, they’re a little slow, you can be a lot more aggressive. But I’m kind of with them though, I didn’t see that many under the first time I came here either. A big key with these greens with them being grainy and that is putting a good roll on it. I feel like I’m doing that. Just trusting the lines you got to hit them on. The greens are tricky to read. I had a few putts today that really – good birdie putts where I thought I had a good read on it and just the ball went opposite of what I thought, it’s just going to happen out here. So for me I just got to stay patient and try not to get too frustrated.”
Justin Thomas: “Today was the hardest for sure. It was a little windier. The greens are getting a little faster. They are still not, I’m sure, up to the pace that they would like with all the rain, but they are starting to get a little firmer, a little faster. The wind just makes it a lot harder to putt. And yesterday was pretty calm. It was about as easy as you could get this golf course. Then Thursday, it was, you know, a normal Kapalua wind, ten to 15. They have been similar but a little different, if that makes sense. Just kind of different versions of a little windy. It’s a course where you can just get so hot. You can realistically, 11 can be a tough hole, and 17 is a tough hole. But other than that, you’ve got a wedge in your hand or you’re looking at a lot of birdie holes and potentially eagle holes. I was just trying to tell myself that even though I made a bad bogey on 7, I hit a good putt on 8, just missed, and then just missed a wood over a 3-footer on 9 to birdie. Could have been 5-under on the front, but still being 2-under, I could still shoot 6-, 7-under on the back and post a low one. That was kind of my mind frame just going through the back nine.”
Jordan Spieth: “Whether it’s a short putt, or long, you just really got to hit it. I played a couple putts today – trickiest reads for me were ones where the entire mountain and grain is going one way, but you’re on the back side – like putts like I had on 17. I had one where that back side of that green’s pitched back the other way. You want to play gravity, but you know there’s an effect from the hill, from the slope and you know there’s an effect from the gradual slope down the mountain and the grain. And each time I try to almost out smart it and play it towards the water and it actually turned back into the hill. So I’ll keep a note of that. But for the most part, if you’re hitting anything from really five feet out into the grain uphill, it is just tough to hit hard enough. Especially in the last group because they get a little spiked up and they’re even slower.”
Patrick Reed: “The golf course fits my eye really well. A lot of the holes, seems like I can work it right-to-left and I’ve worked really hard this off-season on not only working the ball right-to-left but also working it left-to-right, so I can have both shots.”
Zach Johnson: “Well, I guess there was an intimidation factor there just because of the length of it. You know, score card length, and you get a few winds out here where the course does play long. You know, you get the trades, it doesn’t feel like it plays that long. But I was intimidated, not necessarily just because of the yardage, though. Because of the greens. They’re just so hard to putt. I mean they’re big; they’re undulating. A flat putt is pretty slow. The ones down grain are super fast. The ones in the grain are obviously super slow. So the greens are still intimidating. What I’ve grown to know is you’re going to hit good putts and they’re just not going to go in, because there’s so much break. So once I embraced that fact, I think things have kind of settled down a little bit mentally. It’s just hard. Everybody is going to hit it you’re going to hit a lot of fairways, you’re going to hit a lot of greens and you’re going to miss a lot of putts.”
Geoff Ogilvy: “Does it help to hit it long around here? It helps, I think. I don’t think I’m long anymore. I’m long enough. It gives longer hitters room to have a go at it, you know. There’s a lot of holes here where you just hit it as hard as you can and have a little bit of concern for where it goes but a lot less than normal. So I guess it’s an advantage to hit it long because you can, it’s always an advantage to hit it long. There’s a lot of holes here where it’s probably a super advantage. Like 18 is unreachable for the non-long guys but the long guys, it’s exponential. Every ten yards you hit it, you get an extra 20 yards. But a good wind player and a good putter is going to do the best out here I think.”
Steve Stricker: “Yeah, you have to learn here. It takes a while to learn here. It’s a little bit different than what we are typically used to. There’s big undulating greens, a lot of slope in the fairways. But I think the biggest challenge is the greens and the wind once you get on the greens. The wind can blow and make putting very difficult, and even the roll out in the greens that we typically have, which we are not seeing as much here. So it’s a challenge to hit some of these shots, and you expect that ball to roll out or release a lot, and it’s not now. So that’s a little different, too, and something to get used to. But it’s a course where a lot of local knowledge helps you out a lot and the more times you play here, the better off you are.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 13 Sentry winners:
Steve Stricker: 4th Shark Shoot/16th WC/15th Tour Championship/WD BMW.
Jonathan Byrd: 1st Shriners/30th Fry’s.com/66th McGladrey/5th Viking.
Geoff Ogilvy: 7th Aus PGA/31st Aus Open/4th Dubai/32nd Australian Masters.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
6 – Justin Thomas.
5 – Jordan Spieth.
4 – Billy Horschel.
3 – Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler.
2 – Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, Jon Rahm, Adam Scott.
1 – Keegan Bradley, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, J.T Poston, Seamus Power, J.J. Spaun, Scott Stallings, Sepp Straka, Adam Svensson, Aaron Wise, Will Zalatoris.
Kapalua is a course where Driving Accuracy and pure Greens in Regulation take something of a back seat. Instead, the key to success here is accurate approach play and conversion of scoring chances with the putter. Of the last 7 winners here on the Plantation Course in terms of Strokes Gained, Off the Tee slightly outweighs Approach in terms of importance, but that is by a slight margin. Ultimately though Tee to Green ranks of 3rd (Smith), 13th (English), 2nd (Thomas), 3rd (Schauffele), 1st (Johnson), 1st (Thomas) and 1st (Spieth), highlight that total control of the golf ball from Tee to Green will be essential this week. But be aware that the last 13 winners of the Tournament of Champions have averaged 3rd spot across the Putting Average (Putts per GIR) category. You simply have to take your chances here to win.
12 of the last 14 winners here all played competitive golf in the previous December, be that in Australia or at Tiger’s Hero World Challenge and/or the QBE Shoot Out. Working forward from Vijay Singh in 2007, all winners – bar 2019 champion Xander Schauffele – had shot -19 or lower to win a PGA Tour tournament previously in their career.
A winner at the Houston Open in November, you have to recalibrate with Tony on the basis that was his 3rd PGA Tour win in 2022. A winner previously at the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic, Finau has undoubtedly found the mental strength to get over the line. 3 wins across his last 8 strokeplay appearances is amazing stuff and that makes him far too intriguing this week not to back.
For a start he has local ties. Both his mother and wife were born in Hawaii, and Finau has said in the past that he likes playing in Hawaii with his Polynesian heritage garnering local support. 9th here on tournament debut back in 2017, when ranked outside the top 75 in the OWGR, Tony ranked 4th for Tee to Green that year.
Finau has a great coastal record – his first 2 PGA Tour wins came with the smell of sea salt in his nostrils across Puerto Rico (2016) and Liberty National (2021) – and performances at Torrey Pines – 2nd (2021), 4th (2017) and 6th (2018 & 2020) – and the Open Championship – 9th (2018 Carnoustie), 3rd (2019 Royal Portrush) – all support the fact that he has the right profile to win a Tournament of Champions at Kapalua. Many also draw parallels with Augusta National due to the lack of rough and the fact that few shots are played from a flat lie. Finau was 10th on Masters debut in 2018, played in the final group with Tiger Woods in 2019 when finishing 5th and was 10th there again in 2021.
Approach play prior to the Festive period sign-off was top-notch as Tony topped Greens in Regulation at both the Hero World Challenge and the Houston Open, where he also ranked 4th for Tee to Green and 2nd for Putting from a Strokes Gained perspective. RESULT: T7
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You get the feeling that the Plantation Course here at Kapalua should be an excellent course for Viktor Hovland. A player who is marvellous both from off the tee and in terms of his approach play, Viktor’s real nemesis has been his chipping and putting since he arrived on the PGA Tour in 2019.
Wins in Puerto Rico (2020), Mayakoba (2020 & 2021), and Albany (2021 & 2022) have all been in warm, coastal climes and let’s not forget that the World Number 10 has never won on mainland United States. The Island of Maui in Hawaii therefore fits in many ways.
And with a forecast with pretty light winds and excellent scoring conditions, Viktor makes sense to me this week on the basis of the Strokes Gained putting improvement we have seen over the past 12 months with him. Coach Jeff Smith moved Hovland onto the AimPoint technique at the start of 2022. The result seeing the Norwegian’s Strokes Gained Putting rank on the PGA Tour improve to a career best 25th – up from 115th and 99th in the previous 2 seasons.
Bamboozled on the greens here across both 2021 and 2022, if Hovland can keep the hot putter with him as we saw on TifEagle Bermudagrass greens at Albany in mid-December, I like his chances. RESULT: T18
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A player who produces his very best golf on the west coast swing, 3 of his 5 wins have come in California at Silverado (2021 & 2022) plus Riviera (2021). I love the Hogan’s Alley form line in this tournament so 5th (2020) and 10th (2022 when defending) on top of his 2021 victory is a great line of enquiry, when you look at recent winners here in the form of Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Harris English and Cameron Smith.
Another course form line to look into here at Kapalua has to be the Sony Open, played the week after at Waialae Country Club, on Honolulu. Recent Tournament of Champions winners Zach Johnson (2014), Justin Thomas (2017 & 2020) and Cameron Smith (2022) have also captured the Sony Open. Top finishes at Waialae have also been acquired by Sentry winners in the form of Steve Stricker (3rd: 1996 & 2010; 4th: 2007 & 2008), Jordan Spieth (3rd 2017) and Harris English (3rd: 2015; 4th 2014). You can also throw Jimmy Walker into the mix, a 2-time winner of the Sony Open (2014 & 2015) who lost in a play-off to Patrick Reed here in 2015, plus Hideki Matsuyama who finished 2nd here in 2017 behind Justin Thomas, and who won the Sony Open last year.
Form on both Maui and Honolulu makes sense, so I love the fact that Max Homa way back in his rookie season of 2016 finished 6th at the Sony Open. That was in a season when he never made another top-25 finish. 7 years later and now ranked 17th in the OWGR, we know that Homa can take out big titles.
4th when partnered with Kevin Kisner at the QBE Shoot Out played in mid-December is the last in a form line which reads 4-17-23-20-1 going back to the start of this PGA Tour season, and I think that Max can build on his 2 visits here when he has finished 25th (2020) and 15th (2022). RESULT: T3
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Seamus Power is another to like at a nice price. For me he’s always been the sort who goes well on resort scoring tests and clearly the Waterford born 35 year-old is upwardly mobile in the OWGR, now sitting at 29th.
PGA Tour wins have come at -21/267 (2021 Barbasol Championship) and -19/265 (2022 Bermuda Championship) across the past 2 seasons and Seamus has plenty of motivation in 2023, with a place on Luke Donald’s Ryder Cup Team Europe a distinct possibility. 2022 saw Power make the Quarter Finals at the WGC Dell Matchplay, finish 9th at the PGA Championship and 12th at the U.S. Open, and he has used the new season as a great platform for future success in 2023.
1st in Bermuda, 3rd in Mayakoba and 5th at Sea Island across his last 3 starts is impressive current form and highlights a player who thrives on coastal tracks. 3rd (2022) at Waialae, 9th (2022) at Pebble Beach, 5th (2018) at Corales, 6th (2019) at Harbour Town, plus 4th (2021) and 5th (2022) at Sea Island, 8 of Power’s 15 PGA Tour top-10 finishes have been on coastal courses. 15th here on course debut 12 months ago, I can see the Irishman being a factor here in 2023. RESULT: T25
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