The American Express Tips 2024

 

Congratulations to you if you were on Grayson Murray at Monday prices of anything up to 400/1 at the Sony Open. Are there any?! I was on Keegan Bradley at 55/1 so he joins my list of Sony Open runner-ups over the years which are Tim Clark (33/1), Brandt Snedeker (28/1) and Andrew Putnam (80/1).

Low scoring is the key this week as the PGA Tour reaches California for The American Express at PGA West. It was latterly known as the Desert Classic or CareerBuilder Challenge, but I’ll always remember this as the Bob Hope Classic. It used to be played over 4 courses and 5 days as a Pro-Am, but 2024 sees a 156-man, 3-course rota, Pro-Am format. Course-wise we have host course PGA West Stadium, the PGA West Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club. Low scoring yet again will be the order of the day and we could well see something around the mid- to late-20s under par being needed to grab the boosted $ 1,512,000 first prize and a coveted Masters invite for those who haven’t already received a letter through the post recently.

Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, Jason Day, Chris Kirk, Tony Finau, Sam Burns, and Rickie Fowler play from inside the OWGR top 25 in the Californian desert this week, in what is undoubtedly a stronger field than we used to see here.

2024 Majors Competition, Sponsored By bet365

We’re giving you the opportunity to win in 2024 as we’re running our ever-popular Majors Competition in association with bet365 who’ve put a total of £250 in cash up for grabs to the winners. The competition is in the form of a one-and-done, so all you need to do to enter is give us a single player for each of the 4 Majors – full details are here.

 The American Express – Featured Bookmaker:

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Before we go into the detail surrounding the American Express, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: A 3-course rotation always makes this a unique proposition on the PGA Tour, especially with the Pro-Am format. The PGA West facility hosts 3 of the 4 rounds at the Stadium Course (Host Course) and Tournament courses. The PGA West Stadium course hosts 36 holes including the final round. A 5 mile drive is required to the third course in the tournament rotation, namely La Quinta Country Club. This tournament is the ultimate resort course challenge with 3 short Par-72 courses featuring extremely receptive and pure TifDwarf Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis green complexes.

Pete Dye Stadium Course, PGA West, Palm Springs, California: Designer: Pete Dye, 1986; Course Type: Desert, Resort, Short; Par: 72; Length: 7,187 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 7; Number of Bunkers: 90+; Acres of Fairway: 30; Fairways Tifgreen 328 Bermudagrass with Ryegrass; Rough: Tifgreen Bermudagrass 2″; Greens: 5,000 sq.ft average featuring TifDwarf Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis overseed; Stimpmeter: 11ft; Course Scoring Average 2016: 70.82 (-1.18), Difficulty Rank 41 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.59 (-0.41), Difficulty Rank 30 of 50 courses. 2018: 71.18 (-0.82), Difficulty Rank 36 of 51 courses. 2019: 70.24 (-1.76), Difficulty Rank 40 of 49 courses. 2020: 70.36 (-1.64), Difficulty Rank 36 of 41 courses. 2021: 70.81 (-1.19), Difficulty Rank 36 of 51 courses. 2022: 70.57 (-1.43), Difficulty Rank 37 of 50 courses. 2023: 69.20 (-2.80), Difficulty Rank 47 of 49 courses.

Tournament Course, PGA West: Designer: Jack Nicklaus, 1987; Par: 72; Length: 7,147 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 5; Number of Bunkers: 90+; Acres of Fairway: 30; Fairways Ryegrass; Rough: Forman Bermudagrass, 2″; Greens: 7,000 sq.ft average featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis overseed; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2016: 68.94 (-3.06), Difficulty Rank 49 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.74 (-1.26), Difficulty Rank 39 of 50 courses. 2018: 69.45 (-2.55), Difficulty Rank 50 of 51 courses. 2019: 69.06 (-2.94), Difficulty Rank 48 of 49 courses. 2019: 70.24 (-1.76), Difficulty Rank 40 of 49 courses. 2020: 69.24 (-2.77), Difficulty Rank 40 of 41 courses. 2021: 70.95 (-1.05), Difficulty Rank 36 of 51 courses. 2022: 70.26 (-1.74), Difficulty Rank 39 of 50 courses. 2023: 68.73 (-3.27), Difficulty Rank 48 of 49 courses.

La Quinta Country Club, La Quinta: Designer: Lawrence Hughes, with Pascuzzo re-design, 1999: Par 72; Length: 7,060 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 7; Number of Bunkers: 82; Acres of Fairway: 38; Fairways Bermudagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass, 1.75″; Greens: 4,773 sq.ft TifDwarf Bermudagrass Poa Trivialis/ Ryegrass overseed; Stimp: 11.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 70.68 (-1.32), Difficulty Rank 41 of 49 courses. 2013: 69.49 (-2.51), Difficulty Rank 41 of 43 courses. 2017: 69.64 (-2.36), Difficulty Rank 49 of 50 courses. 2018: 68.83 (-3.17), Difficulty Rank 51 of 51 courses. 2019: 68.72 (-3.28), Difficulty Rank 49 of 49 courses. 2020: 69.18 (-2.82), Difficulty Rank 41 of 41 courses. 2022: 69.92 (-2.08), Difficulty Rank 43 of 50 courses. 2023: 69.58 (-2.46), Difficulty Rank 46 of 49 courses.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus designs include:

Pete Dye:

• Austin Country Club – WGC Dell Matchplay since 2016
• Crooked Stick – 2012 and 2016 BMW Championship.
• Harbour Town Golf Links – RBC Heritage
• Ocean Course – Kiawah Island – 2012 + 2021 PGA Championship
• TPC River Highlands – The Travelers
• TPC Louisiana – Zurich Classic of New Orleans
• TPC Sawgrass – The Players Championship
• Whistling Straits – 2010 and 2015 PGA Championship

Jack Nicklaus:

• Annandale Golf Club – Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013
• Glen Abbey – RBC Canadian Open – 2008, 2013, 2015-2018
• Montreux Golf & Country Club – Barracuda Championship through 2019
• Muirfield Village – The Memorial Tournament
• Old Greenwood GC – Barracuda Championship 2020 onwards
• PGA National – The Honda Classic
• PGA West – Nicklaus Private – Humana Challenge through 2015
• Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – World Challenge through 2013 + 2020 ZOZO Championship
• Valhalla Golf Club – 2014 PGA Championship

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

• Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
• Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
• TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
• CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
• Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
• East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.

Course Overview: 2024 sees The American Express play to its standard Pro-Am format with a field of 156 professionals teamed with 156 amateurs.

The American Express sees the Pro-Am being played across the first 3 days of competition as opposed to all 72 holes. A cut is then made for the final round at the Stadium Course venue, with the top 65 players and ties playing Sunday. A 156 player field allied to the pro-am nature makes for painfully slow play, which some players can’t handle.

Since 2012, in terms of the Pro-Am format (2021 saw no Pro-Am with Covid restrictions), this tournament has played a 3-course rota over 72 holes. 2016 saw the PGA West Stadium Course added to the rota as the host course (36 holes including the final round) and the Nicklaus Tournament Course was also added for the very first time. Stadium hosted a round of the Bob Hope Classic back in 1987 and has been home to the PGA Tour Q-School numerous times including 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2012. The Nicklaus-designed Tournament Course shared hosting duties across these Q-Schools as well.

The Stadium host course is a Pete Dye design and is viewed by many as the sequel to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. The course features its own island 17th hole which will play as a 165 yard par-3 this week. The Stadium Course plays to a 7,187 yard, Par 72 on the scorecard and has plenty of water in play. With a scoring average of 69.207 in 2023 it had a difficulty rank of 47 of 49 courses on the PGA Tour last season, in comparison to 48th for the Tournament Course, whilst La Quinta was the most difficult (within reason) course on rota ranking 46th for difficulty. So in summary they were the 4th (La Quinta), 3rd (Stadium Course) and 2nd (Tournament) most easy courses on the PGA Tour last season.

Statistically Stadium is an interesting course where flagrant power is seemingly negated a little. The par-5s play relatively tough, especially compared to both the par-4s which yield plenty of birdies. With so much water in play, brute power alone doesn’t work here – instead crisp wedge play from within 125 yards is critical. Scrambling on the course is easy for these PGA Tour pros and the TifDwarf Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis greens are pure enough that One-Putt Percentages are always in the top 6 on the PGA Tour.

This tournament is a testament to US resort-style golf – go low or go home, it’s that simple. Since 2012 when the tournament moved to a conventional 72-hole format; -24/264, -25/263, -29/259, -22/266, -25/263, -20/268, -22/266, -26/262, -26/262, -23/265, -23/265 and -27/261 have been the winning totals. Birdie or better conversion rates at 36% (2012), 38% (2013), an astonishing 44% (2014 by Patrick Reed), 32% (2015), 42%, 36%, 38%, 36%, 43%, 33%, 42% and 40% last year are traditionally some of the highest we see all year.

The American Express Winners: 2023: Jon Rahm (-27); 2022: Hudson Swafford (-23); 2021: Si Woo Kim (-23); 2020: Andrew Landry (-26); 2019: Adam Long (-26); 2018: Jon Rahm (-22); 2017: Hudson Swafford (-20); 2016: Jason Dufner (-25); 2015: Bill Haas (-22); 2014: Patrick Reed (-29); 2013: Brian Gay (-25); 2012: Mark Wilson (-24).

• 2023: Jon Rahm 64-64-65-68 -27/261
• 2022: Hudson Swafford 70-65-66-64 -23/265
• 2021: Si Woo Kim 66-68-67-64 -23/265
• 2020: Andrew Landry 66-64-65-67 -26/262
• 2019: Adam Long 63-71-63-65 -26/262

Course Rotation since 2016:

• 2023 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: La Quinta; Round 2: Tournament; Round 3: Stadium.
• 2022 – Hudson Swafford: Round 1: La Quinta; Round 2: Tournament; Round 3: Stadium.
• 2021 – Si Woo Kim: Round 1: Stadium; Round 2: Tournament. (2 Course Rota).
• 2020 – Andrew Landry: Round 1: Stadium; Round 2: La Quinta; Round 3: Tournament.
• 2019 – Adam Long: Round 1: Tournament; Round 2: Stadium; Round 3: La Quinta.
• 2018 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: La Quinta; Round 2: Tournament; Round 3: Stadium.
• 2017 – Hudson Swafford: Round 1: La Quinta; Round 2: Tournament; Round 3: Stadium.
• 2016 – Jason Dufner Round 1: Tournament; Round 2: Stadium; Round 3: La Quinta.

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for Amex winners since the tournament moved to the current PGA West Stadium host course rota:

• 2023 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2022 – Hudson Swafford: Round 1: 73rd, Round 2: 24th, Round 3: 5th.
• 2021 – Si Woo Kim: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2020 – Andrew Landry: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2019 – Adam Long: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2018 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 4th.
• 2017 – Hudson Swafford: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2016 – Jason Dufner: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are Amex winners since the tournament moved to the current PGA West Stadium host course rota, and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

• 2023 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 3 level.
• 2022 – Hudson Swafford: Round 1: 8 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2021 – Si Woo Kim: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: level.
• 2020 – Andrew Landry: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: level.
• 2019 – Adam Long: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2018 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2017 – Hudson Swafford: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2016 – Jason Dufner: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 2 ahead.

OWGR of The American Express Winners: 2023: Rahm 5; 2022: Swafford 166: 2021: Si Woo Kim 96; 2020: Landry 240; 2019: Long 417; 2018: Rahm 3; 2017: Swafford 204.

Cut Line: 2023: -10; 2022: -7; 2021: -4 (36 holes); 2020: -9; 2019: -9; 2018: -8; 2017: -5; 2016: -9.

Lead Score Progression:

• 2023: Round 1 -10; Round 2 -18; Round 3 -23; Round 4 -27.
• 2022: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -15; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -23.
• 2021: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -21.
• 2020: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -6; Round 3 -12; Round 4 -11.
• 2019: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -22.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Eric Cole, Sungjae Im, J.T. Poston, Tom Kim, Rickie Fowler, Akshay Bhatia and Chris Kirk.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

The American Express Winning Prices: 2023: Rahm 13/2F; 2022: Swafford 175/1; 2021: Kim 66/1; 2020: Landry 200/1; 2019: Long 600/1; 2018: Rahm 10/1; 2017: Swafford 66/1; 2016: Dufner 40/1; 2015: Haas 30/1; 2014: Reed 135/1; 2013: Gay 80/1; 2012: Wilson 125/1; 2011: Vegas 200/1; 2010: Haas 100/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 210/1; Overall Average: 131/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2023: Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High of 60. Wind WNW 6-12 mph. Friday: Mostly Sunny. High of 62. Wind NNW 8-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High of 64. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 63. Wind NW 4-8 mph.
• 2022: Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High of 75. Wind NNW 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 74. Wind NNW 20-25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 70. Wind NNW 14-18 mph, gusting to 28 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 76. Wind NNW 8-13 mph, gusting to 20 mph.
• 2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 75. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 67. Wind SSE 8-12 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. High of 62. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 64. Wind NW 7-14 mph.
• 2020: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 68. Wind SE at 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 68. Wind NE 4-8 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 72. Wind E 3-6 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 77. Wind ESE 3-6 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Mostly cloudy and rainy. High of 66. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Due to fog, play at La Quinta Country Club was delayed one hour (9:30 a.m. start) and delayed at the Stadium and Nicklaus Tournament Courses one hour, 15 minutes (9:45 a.m. start). Friday: Sunny. High of 74. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 75. Wind light and variable 4-8 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 74. Wind SE 4-8 mph.
• 2018: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 78. Wind variable 4-8 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 78. Wind variable 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 65. Wind NW 20-30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 66. Wind variable 4-8 mph.
• 2017: Thursday: Overcast, with light morning rain. Mostly sunny in the afternoon, with a high of 64. Wind W 8-15 mph. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 61. Wind NE to SSE 8-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 63. Wind NW 10-15 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Sunday: Cloudy, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 61. Wind SSE 8-15 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Clear skies with an afternoon high of 74 degrees. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 73 degrees. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 71 degrees. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with an afternoon high of 82 degrees. Wind NW 7-15 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for La Quinta, California is here.

Weather in the main looks great for The American Express. There has been no significant rain to speak of in the build-up and tournament week looks clear apart from a 25% chance of a shower on Sunday. Expect rolling fairways and greens which are always watered and responsive here. There is little wind in the forecast at all which is better than 12 months ago when there was a nagging breeze for the opening 36 holes. Temperatures will also be warmer than in 2023. Expect a pleasant 20 degrees Celsius – 68 Fahrenheit – across the opening 54 holes, which then falls to 16 degrees Celsius – 61 Fahrenheit – on Sunday.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the ZOZO Championship / Andalucia Masters which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded, plus the Hero World Challenge. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Xander Schauffele; 2) Scottie Scheffler / Taiga Semikawa; 4) Patrick Cantlay; 5) Tyler Duncan; 6) Min Woo Lee; 7) Tony Finau / Patton Kizzire; 9) Will Gordon / Erik van Rooyen; 11) Austin Eckroat; 12) Sam Burns; 13) Nicholas Lindheim / Keith Mitchell / Alejandro Tosti; 16) Jason Day; 17) Sungjae Im; 18) Akshay Bhatia / Jacob Bridgeman / Wyndham Clark; 21) Lee Hodges; 22) Matthieu Pavon; 23) Jhonattan Vegas / Justin Thomas; 25) Si Woo Kim.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Harry Hall; 3) Sam Ryder; 4) Joel Dahmen / Chris Kirk / Taylor Montgomery; 7) Thomas Detry; 8) Sungjae Im; 9) Justin Thomas; 10) Joseph Bramlett; 11) Rickie Fowler / Greyson Sigg; 13) Jason Day / Tom Kim; 15) Xander Schauffele / Nick Taylor; 17) Zac Blair / Tony Finau; 19) Aaron Rai / Brandon Wu; 21) Ben Kohles; 22) Eric Cole / Erik van Rooyen; 24) Sam Burns; 25) Tom Hoge / Matthieu Pavon.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Shane Lowry; 2) Justin Thomas; 3) Ben Silverman; 4) Jason Day / Min Woo Lee; 6) S.H. Kim; 7) Aaron Baddeley; 8) Jake Knapp; 9) Tony Finau; 10) Xander Schauffele; 11) Xander Schauffele / Sam Stevens; 13) Wyndham Clark / Ryan Moore; 15) Rickie Fowler; 16) Matt Wallace; 17) Patrick Cantlay / Tom Kim; 19) Ryo Hisatsune; 20) Jacob Bridgeman; 21) K.H. Lee; 22) Chesson Hadley; 23) Adam Long; 24) Sam Burns / Andrew Putnam.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Xander Schauffele; 3) Justin Thomas; 4) Jason Day / Chris Kirk; 6) Patrick Cantlay; 7) Patton Kizzire; 8) Tony Finau / Sungjae Im; 10) Min Woo Lee / Aaron Rai; 12) Tom Kim / Matthieu Pavon; 14) Brandon Wu; 15) Akshay Bhatia / Ryan Moore / Greyson Sigg; 18) Thomas Detry; 19) Ben Silverman; 20) Zac Blair; 21) Sam Burns; 22) Joseph Bramlett / Shane Lowry / Sam Ryder; 25) Austin Eckroat / Rickie Fowler / Si Woo Kim.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Ben Griffin; 2) Ryo Hisatsune; 3) Michael Kim / Justin Thomas; 5) Eric Cole / Cam Davis / Sungjae Im; 8) Shane Lowry; 9) J.T. Poston; 10) Jason Day / Charley Hoffman; 12) Chad Ramey; 13) Min Woo Lee / Andrew Putnam; 15) Sam Burns / Matt Wallace; 17) Robert MacIntyre; 18) Nicolas Echavarria / Scottie Scheffler; 20) Tony Finau / Ben Kohles; 22) Patrick Cantlay; 23) Rickie Fowler / Stephan Jaeger / Taylor Montgomery / Nick Taylor.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Justin Thomas; 3) Sungjae Im / Beau Hossler; 5) Eric Cole; 6) Jason Day / Min Woo Lee / J.T. Poston; 9) Patrick Cantlay; 10) Ryo Hisatsune / Matthieu Pavon; 12) Shane Lowry / Taylor Montgomery / Andrew Putnam / Ben Silverman; 16) Tony Finau; 17) Taylor Pendrith; 18) Akshay Bhatia; 19) Aaron Rai / Xander Schauffele; 21) Sam Burns / Erik van Rooyen; 23) Will Gordon; 24) Nick Taylor; 25) Ryan Moore.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of The American Express winners at the host Stadium Course (36 holes) since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this desert, short, Par 72:

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2023, Jon Rahm (-27). SG Off the Tee: 13th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 22nd, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 61st.
• 2022, Hudson Swafford (-23). SG Off the Tee: 45th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 25th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 2nd.
• 2021, Si Woo Kim (-23). SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 16th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 8th.
• 2020, Andrew Landry (-26). SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 65th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 6th.
• 2019, Adam Long (-26). SG Off the Tee: 40th, SG Approach: 43rd, SG Around the Green: 30th, SG Tee to Green: 46th, SG Putting: 9th.
• 2018, Jon Rahm (-22). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 60th, SG Tee to Green: 12th, SG Putting: 28th.
• 2017, Hudson Swafford (-20). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 71st, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 44th.
• 2016, Jason Dufner (-25). SG Off the Tee: 26th, SG Approach: 42nd, SG Around the Green: 8th, SG Tee to Green: 23rd, SG Putting: 14th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 15th, SG Around the Green: 37th, SG Tee to Green: 15th, SG Putting: 22nd.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2023, Jon Rahm (-27). 316 yards (11th), 69.6% fairways (24th), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 33’10” proximity to hole (43rd), 83.3% scrambling (7th), 1.57 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2022, Hudson Swafford (-23). 307 yards (13th), 64.3% fairways (37th), 72.2% greens in regulation (21st), 36’3″ proximity to hole (38th), 75.0 % scrambling (20th), 1.58 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2021, Si Woo Kim (-23). 300 yards (29th), 73.2% fairways (16th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 30’2″ proximity to hole (15th), 84.6 % scrambling (4th), 1.61 putts per GIR (11th).
• 2020, Andrew Landry (-26). 286 yards (61st), 75.0% fairways (3rd), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 27’11” proximity to hole (16th), 76.5 % scrambling (25th), 1.46 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2019, Adam Long (-26). 291 yards (28th), 69.6% fairways (12th), 70.8% greens in regulation (41st), 29’5″ proximity to hole (30th), 85.7 % scrambling (7th), 1.51 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2018, Jon Rahm (-22). 310 yards (5th), 64.3% fairways (28th), 72.2% greens in regulation (20th), 328″ proximity to hole (31st), 75.0 % scrambling (21st), 1.56 putts per GIR (8th).
• 2017, Hudson Swafford (-20). 307 yards (5th), 55.4% fairways (61st), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 30’2″ proximity to hole (27th), 71.4 % scrambling (30th), 1.66 putts per GIR (24th).
• 2016, Jason Dufner (-25). 290 yards (49th), 75.0% fairways (5th), 75.0% greens in regulation (15th), 30’6″ proximity to hole (20th), 72.2 % scrambling (40th), 1.54 putts per GIR (5th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 25th, Driving Accuracy: 23rd, Greens in Regulation: 14th, Proximity to Hole: 28th, Scrambling: 19th, Putting Average 8th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the American Express courses set-up plus what skill sets the courses favour:

Jon Rahm (2023): “The one thing I know is, I mean, if you’re somewhere between 20- and 25-under and I’m pretty sure 70 percent of that is done on two of the courses. You got to, I think the year I won I shot 16-under between La Quinta and Nicklaus. So the Stadium Course, if the wind picks up, can show some teeth, that can happen. You need to shoot low on those other two courses, no matter how it goes.”

Jon Rahm (La Quinta): “I’m happy I played this golf course in these easy of conditions. And, yeah, it can show some teeth because some of those fairways are quite narrow to hit. Missing fairways, it’s not going to cost you too much, but you can’t be throwing darts like you usually do off the fairway here. If you put it in the fairway you have a short iron in. If you start getting gusts, it can get away from you. Mainly because it’s a golf course where you can shoot of 5- or lower pretty often and if you play the other courses on pace and don’t shoot low here you can find yourself just a little bit off of the lead group. We all have to play all courses. If it’s blowing tomorrow on Nicklaus, Nicklaus can also show some teeth. It all evens out.”

Jon Rahm (Tournament): “That was probably the best I’ve ever had my wedge game. It was a distance today which was basically a hundred-yard-feeling shot that I had multiple times. I had it on, let’s say 10. I think I had it on 13, 14, 15. Close to it on 1 and on 5. That is six shots that none of ’em were outside eight feet and three of them were absolute tap-ins. One almost went in. So, yeah, that part of it was amazing. I hit a couple of really good long iron shots as well. Second shot into 7 was really good.”

Hudson Swafford (2022): “Yeah, I don’t know what the weather’s going to be like tomorrow, but you got to be patient, anything can happen here, last year I bogeyed the first hole, I was 1-over through the first six, I think I was six shots back when I was in the last group and played pretty flawless golf after that, bogey-free 6-under from there. So anything can happen. You give yourself chances, you can make some birdies out here. It is a little visually intimidating, so the fat side of the green’s not always terrible out here and that’s kind of going to be my game plan and just don’t have to come out and try to birdie every hole early, just kind of plod along.

I’ve fallen in love with this place. This is kind of my West Coast home, honestly. We base ourselves kind of out of the Hideaway just across the street. We have now, this is our 8th year. I come out here early before Sony, get some work in, get ready. I enjoy the weather here. I enjoy the grass. It’s all Bermuda grass. It’s what I grew up on. I don’t know why here. It just clicks. I see the lines on the greens pretty well here and I got a lot of confidence and a lot of good memories here, so I can pull on that and keep going.”

Si Woo Kim (2021): ” Yeah, I have great memories with this course. So for Q-School, I passed the Q-School on this course, and then I have great memories and then that’s why I feel confidence whenever I come to this course. So that helps a lot for me this week, especially I try to focus on the memories that gave me good scores, so that’s why it drove me to the win.”

“So on the back nine there’s a lot of birdie chances and I had to know what’s going on, so that helps me how to play my game the final round. So I kept watching the leaderboard. I knew that Cantlay played really well. So I knew I have a lot of chances on the back nine for birdies, so I tried to keep patient and I believed in myself and I got the chance on 16 and 17 and that’s when I could make it and I’m happy with that.”

Andrew Landry (Nicklaus Course): “I like that atmosphere over there, there’s some good holes, there’s some mediocre holes, you just got to drive the ball well out there, you got to hit your irons very well out there and you got to play smart, because there’s some par-5s out there that can jump up and bite you if you’re not playing smart. So we got a good game plan for it, we played well there in the past, and now we’ll see what happens tomorrow.

The key to this week has been good putting. I’ve been putting the ball absolutely beautifully and just kind of everything’s been there, my wedge play has been there, I hit some really good wedges. I went to a 54 degree this week instead of a playing a 52, 60 and it’s just kind of given me that 105 to 115 number just a lot better. And I’ve had it three or four times and I’ve hit every one of them gimmie. So the wedges are there, the putting’s there, just need to go out and go do it again tomorrow.”

Adam Long: “I had some pretty good hopes, I guess, because I played well in my practice rounds and made a lot of birdies and felt pretty good leading up to Thursday, so I would have been surprised had I not had a good start. But yeah, it’s three awesome golf courses and you hit fairways and greens and you can make a lot of putts because these greens on all three courses are just perfect. So you can make them from all over. I played here for Q-School in 2011, so, yeah, it’s been a bit. I think a junior tournament too before that. But been here a few times, but it’s a great place to play golf and, yeah, I’ve had good mojo here and hope to keep it going.”

Jon Rahm: “This area, the courses are always in really, really good shape, so it’s tough to pick one. But just because I’m familiar with it I would say the Nicklaus, just because I played it, I mean, this would be about my ninth round on this golf course, so I know it pretty good. But again, I feel like any other person, when you have a good day, any course is fit for you. It’s about making good shots. Well, yeah, I mean I’ve been living in this area for five years and most of the college tournaments we played was around here, so exactly, we played here – we played the Norman course as well – I’m just familiar with this type of golf course.

The Stadium Course, it’s a Pete Dye design, where I played four years of my life, it’s a Pete Dye design. Very, very similar type of golf. You need to hit it a lot more accurate off the tee because being in the fairway is a lot more important. With the small greens, you have water in play, you need to be more precise, clearly the hardest golf course. If you can have 5- or 6-under there you’re going to pick up a lot of shots. So hopefully have an organized round like I did yesterday, not have to fight too much to shoot under par.”

Hudson Swafford (Stadium): “Absolutely, yeah, no, this is a tough golf course. When you come to the desert, all you think is birdies, usually the scores yield birdies. But this Stadium Course has kind of changed that. I know there is a lot of good rounds out here, but one errant shot, it’s very penalizing. So you got to be super patient on this golf course.”

Jason Dufner: “I came out before I went to Sony and played these golf courses, both of them, twice. Spent some time out here practicing and playing. So I felt good. We have had some great weather, obviously that helps. The courses are in great shape. So I’m pretty comfortable right now.

The Stadium Course, it’s a difficult golf course. There’s a little bit of room to play off the tee, in my opinion, but if you get off the path a little bit, you can get into some trouble. He’s got some water out there, he’s got some tricky bunkers, you get some uneven lies here and there. The greens kind are difficult. They run on some angles and there’s some slope. So it’s definitely the most difficult of the courses we have played here in the desert area. But today it just was one of those days, but I had a wedge in my hand. So just be aggressive. I know that, if I miss, it’s a soft fade to the right, so I can manage that.”

Incoming form of Amex winners since 2016:

• Jon Rahm: 1st Sentry/8th WC/1st DPWTC/1st Espana.
• Hudson Swafford: 48th Sony/MC RSM/35th Houston/33rd Mayakoba.
• Si Woo Kim: 25th Sony/34th Masters/MC Houston/17th CJ Cup.
• Andrew Landry: MC Sony/MC RSM/MC Mayakoba/MC Houston.
• Adam Long: MC Sony/MC RSM/MC Sanderson/63rd Safeway.
• Jon Rahm: 2nd ToC/1st DPWTC/36th HSBC/MC Valderrama.
• Hudson Swafford: 13th Sony/36th RSM/46th Mayakoba/23rd HSBC/29th CIMB.
• Jason Dufner: 9th Sony/1st Shark Shoot/9th RSM/40th Mayakoba.

8 of the last 12 winners, namely Jon Rahm (2023), Hudson Swafford (2022), Si Woo Kim, Jason Dufner, Bill Haas, Patrick Reed, Brian Gay and Mark Wilson, had all won PGA Tour titles on Bermudagrass greens prior to capturing the title here in La Quinta. Jon Rahm extends that trend to a degree, on the basis he’d won the DP Tour Championship on the European Tour at the Earth Course in November 2017, prior to winning this in January 2018.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 6 – Justin Thomas.
• 5 – Scottie Scheffler.
• 4 – Sam Burns, Jason Day, Bill Haas, Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Camilo Villegas.
• 3 – Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Palmer, Xander Schauffele, Brandt Snedeker.
• 2 – Patrick Cantlay, Jason Dufner, Rickie Fowler, Grayson Murray.
• 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Cameron Champ, Wyndham Clark, Tyler Duncan, Tony Finau, Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, Garrick Higgo, J.B. Holmes, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Martin Laird, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Keith Mitchell, J.T. Poston, Davis Riley, Scott Stallings, Kevin Streelman, Nick Taylor, Jhonattan Vegas.

Recent champions here include Long (Tour Rookie), Swafford 1st time PGA Tour winner), Landry (1 win at the time), Si Woo Kim and Swafford (2022) (2 Wins), with Dufner (3 Wins). The very elite Jon Rahm won this in 2018 and last year he had won 1 PGA Tour and 3 main Tour victories before winning here. Clearly it’s all up for grabs this week!

The plot thickens further when you look at the circumstances prior to victories for recent winners. Last year Rahm’s (a LIV defector these days) American Express victory came just 2 weeks after winning The Sentry. He had also won the DP World Tour Championship in November the previous year.

2022 saw winner Hudson Swafford (another LIV defector these days) arrive here off 5 made cuts in his last 6 events. 48th the week before at the Sony Open, which was his first event of 2022, inbound form was consistent if not spectacular, reading 48-MC-35-33-32-56. Naturally he’d won here in 2017.

Si Woo Kim had finished 25th the week before at the Sony Open, which had been his opening event of 2021, where he opened with a -6/64. Prior to that his form was decent with 34th at The Masters, a 17th at the CJ Cup and 8th at the Shriners Open the highlights.

Andrew Landry had inbound form of MC/MC/MC/MC/MC before winning here in 2020. He has missed the cut the week before at the Sony Open. Out of 6 seasonal outings he had a single 23rd to his name. Course form lovers could have plucked out a 2nd place finish here 2 years earlier, where he lost in a play off to Jon Rahm, but let’s be frank – Landry was a find and a half.

Then we have Adam Long who was 600/1 prior to winning this. In 4 previous starts on the PGA Tour he had 3 Missed Cuts and a 63rd to his name. Again pick the bones from that! Rahm in 2018 had finished 2nd at Kapalua 2 weeks prior. Hudson Swafford in 2017 finished 13th the week before at Waialae – he had been T3 after 54 holes. 2016 saw Jason Dufner win this after another showing the week before at Waialae. He ultimately finished 9th at the Sony Open, and had been 6th after 54 holes. He had also won the Franklin Templeton Shoot Out in late December with Brandt Snedeker.

So what’s the right recipe for success this week? In all honesty it’s very hard to gauge as it would be at a tournament where the average winning price over the past 5 renewals has been 210/1 from a 13/2 favourite, 175/1, 66/1, 200/1 and a 600/1 shot. If previous renewals are anything to go by then all types of player can thrive here, both the long bomber, accurate ball-striker and a player who has a career-breaking week with the putter.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:50GMT 15.1.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.