Congratulations to you if you were on Nick Taylor at Monday opening prices up to 125/1 (Unibet). You have to say that the Canadian is an understated killer when in contention, and in a world of big names who don’t win or don’t win enough to justify their weekly prices, this was Taylor’s 3rd PGA Tour win in his last 40 appearances. Overall it was his 5th PGA Tour victory.
Low scoring is the key this week as the PGA Tour reaches California for The American Express at PGA West. It was latterly known as the Desert Classic or CareerBuilder Challenge, but I’ll always remember this as the Bob Hope Classic. It used to be played over 4 courses and 5 days as a Pro-Am, but 2024 sees a 156-man, 3 course rota, Pro-Am format. Course-wise we have host course PGA West Stadium, the PGA West Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club. Low scoring will be the order of the day and we could well see something around the late 20s under par being needed to grab the boosted $1,530,000 first prize and a coveted Masters invite for those who haven’t already received a letter through the post recently.
Wyndham, Clark, Patrick Cantlay, Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Tom Kim and Tony Finau play from inside the OWGR top 25 in the Californian desert this week, in what is undoubtedly a stronger field than we used to see here.
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Before we go into the detail surrounding The American Express, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System at the start of each season. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Guide: A 3-course rotation always makes this a unique proposition on the PGA Tour, especially with the Pro-Am format.
The PGA West facility hosts 3 of the 4 rounds at the Stadium Course (Host Course) and Tournament courses. The PGA West Stadium course hosts 36 holes including the final round. A 5 mile drive is required to the third course in the tournament rotation, namely La Quinta Country Club.
This tournament is the ultimate resort course challenge with 3 short Par-72 courses featuring extremely receptive and pure TifDwarf Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis green complexes.
Pete Dye Stadium Course, PGA West, Palm Springs, California: Designer: Pete Dye, 1986; Course Type: Desert, Resort, Short; Par: 72; Length: 7,210 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 8; Number of Bunkers: 90+; Acres of Fairway: 30; Fairways Tifgreen 328 Bermudagrass with Ryegrass; Rough: Tifgreen 328 Bermudagrass 2″; Greens: 7,000 sq.ft average featuring TifDwarf Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis overseed; Stimpmeter: 11ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2024: 69.15 (-3.86), Rank 48 of 51 courses
2023: 69.20 (-2.80), Rank 47 of 49 courses
2022: 70.57 (-1.43), Rank 37 of 50 courses
2021: 70.81 (-1.19), Rank 36 of 51 courses
2020: 70.36 (-1.64), Rank 36 of 41 courses
Tournament Course, PGA West: Designer: Jack Nicklaus, 1987; Par: 72; Length: 7,147 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 5; Number of Bunkers: 90+; Acres of Fairway: 30; Fairways Ryegrass; Rough: Forman Bermudagrass, 2″; Greens: 5,500 sq.ft average featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis overseed; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2024: 68.09 (-3.91), Rank 49 of 51 courses
2023: 68.73 (-3.27), Rank 48 of 49 courses
2022: 70.26 (-1.74), Rank 39 of 50 courses
2021: 70.95 (-1.05), Rank 36 of 51 courses
2020: 69.24 (-2.77), Rank 40 of 41 courses
La Quinta Country Club, La Quinta: Designer: Lawrence Hughes, with Pascuzzo re-design, 1999: Par 72; Length: 7,060 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 7; Number of Bunkers: 82; Acres of Fairway: 28; Fairways Bermudagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass, 1.75″; Greens: 4,773 sq.ft TifDwarf Bermudagrass Poa Trivialis/ Ryegrass overseed; Stimp: 11.5ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2024: 67.91 (-4.09), Rank 50 of 51 courses
2023: 69.58 (-2.46), Rank 46 of 49 courses
2022: 69.92 (-2.08), Rank 43 of 50 courses
2020: 69.18 (-2.82), Rank 41 of 41 courses
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus designs include:
Pete Dye:
Austin Country Club – WGC Dell Matchplay since 2016
Whistling Straits – 2010 and 2015 PGA Championship
Jack Nicklaus:
Annandale Golf Club – Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013
Castle Pines Golf Club – 2024 BMW Championship
Glen Abbey – RBC Canadian Open – 2008, 2013, 2015-2018
Montreux Golf & Country Club – Barracuda Championship through 2019
Muirfield Village – The Memorial Tournament
Old Greenwood GC – Barracuda Championship 2020 onwards
PGA National – The Honda Classic
PGA West – Nicklaus Private – Humana Challenge through 2015
Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – World Challenge through 2013 + 2020 ZOZO Championship
Valhalla Golf Club – 2014 PGA Championship
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
El Cardonal: Average 60 yards up to 70 yards wide.
TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
Black Desert: Average 30 yards up to 70-100 yards wide.
Course Overview: 2025 sees The American Express play to its standard Pro-Am format with a field of 156 professionals teamed with 156 amateurs. The American Express sees the Pro-Am being played across the first 3 days of competition as opposed to all 72 holes. A cut is then made for the final round at the Stadium Course venue, with the top 65 players and ties playing Sunday. A 156 player field allied to the pro-am nature makes for painfully slow play which some players can’t handle.
Since 2012, in terms of the Pro-Am format (2021 saw no Pro-Am with Covid restrictions) this tournament has played a 3-course rota over 72 holes. 2016 saw the PGA West Stadium Course added to the rota as the host course (36 holes including the final round) and the Nicklaus Tournament Course was also added for the very first time. Stadium hosted a round of the Bob Hope Classic back in 1987 and has been home to the PGA Tour Q-School numerous times including 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2012. The Nicklaus-designed Tournament Course shared hosting duties across these Q-Schools as well.
The Stadium host course is a Pete Dye design and is viewed by many as the sequel to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. The course features its own island 17th hole which will play as a 165 yard par-3 this week. The Stadium Course plays as a freshly extended 7,210 yard, Par 72 on the scorecard with 21 yards added via new tee box allocations at the par-3 6th (227 yards, +4 yards) and the par-3 13th (214 yards. +19 yards). It also has plenty of water in play.
With a scoring average of 69.15 in 2024 it had a difficulty rank of 48 of 51 courses on the PGA Tour last season, in comparison to 49th for the Tournament Course, whilst La Quinta was the easiest course on rota ranking 50th for difficulty. So in summary they were the 2nd (La Quinta), 3rd (Tournament) and 4th (Stadium Course) most easy courses on the PGA Tour last season. You won’t be surprised to know that the Plantation Course at Kapalua was the easiest.
Statistically Stadium is an interesting course as the par-5s play relatively tough, especially compared to the par-4s which yield plenty of birdies. With so much water in play brute power alone doesn’t work here, instead crisp wedge play from within 125 yards is critical. Scrambling on the course is easy for these PGA Tour pros and the TifDwarf Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis greens are pure enough that One-Putt Percentages are always in the top 6 on the PGA Tour.
This tournament is a testament to US resort-style golf – go low or go home, it’s that simple. Since 2012 when the tournament moved to a conventional 72-hole format -24/264, -25/263, -29/259, -22/266, -25/263, -20/268, -22/266, -26/262, -26/262, -23/265, -23/265, -27/261 and -29/259 have been the winning totals. Birdie or better conversion rates at 36% (2012), 38% (2013), an astonishing 44% (2014 by Patrick Reed), 32% (2015), 42%, 36%, 38%, 36%, 43%, 33%, 42%, 40% and 40% last year are naturally some of the highest we see all year.
The American Express Winners: 2024: Nick Dunlap (-29); 2023: Jon Rahm (-27); 2022: Hudson Swafford (-23); 2021: Si Woo Kim (-23); 2020: Andrew Landry (-26); 2019: Adam Long (-26); 2018: Jon Rahm (-22); 2017: Hudson Swafford (-20); 2016: Jason Dufner (-25); 2015: Bill Haas (-22); 2014: Patrick Reed (-29); 2013: Brian Gay (-25); 2012: Mark Wilson (-24).
2024: Nick Dunlap 64-65-60-70 -29/259
2023: Jon Rahm 64-64-65-68 -27/261
2022: Hudson Swafford 70-65-66-64 -23/265
2021: Si Woo Kim 66-68-67-64 -23/265
2020: Andrew Landry 66-64-65-67 -26/262
2019: Adam Long 63-71-63-65 -26/262
Course Rotation since 2016:
2024 – Nick Dunlap: Round 1: Tournament; Round 2: Stadium; Round 3: La Quinta.
2023 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: La Quinta; Round 2: Tournament; Round 3: Stadium.
Shots From the Lead: Below are Amex winners since the tournament moved to the current PGA West Stadium host course rota, and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
Jason Dufner: 9th Sony/1st Shark Shoot/9th RSM/40th Mayakoba.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Sam Burns, Keith Mitchell, Max Greyserman, Nick Dunlap, Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, Wyndham Clark, Harry Hall, Tony Finau and Matthias Schmid.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
The American Express Winning Prices: 2024: Dunlap 350/1; 2023: Rahm 13/2; 2022: Swafford 175/1; 2021: Si Woo Kim 66/1; 2020: Landry 200/1; 2019: Long 600/1; 2018: Rahm 10/1; 2017: Swafford 66/1; 2016: Dufner 40/1; 2015: Haas 30/1; 2014: Reed 135/1; 2013: Gay 80/1; 2012: Wilson 125/1; 2011: Vegas 200/1; 2010: Haas 100/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 160/1; Overall Average: 146/1.
Historical Weather:
2024: Thursday: Sunny. High of 75. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 73. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Saturday: Overcast with light rain. High of 69. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Overcast with light rain. High of 67. Wind SE 4-8 mph.
2023: Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High of 60. Wind WNW 6-12 mph. Friday: Mostly Sunny. High of 62. Wind NNW 8-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High of 64. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 63. Wind NW 4-8 mph.
2022: Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High of 75. Wind NNW 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 74. Wind NNW 20-25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 70. Wind NNW 14-18 mph, gusting to 28 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 76. Wind NNW 8-13 mph, gusting to 20 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 75. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 67. Wind SSE 8-12 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. High of 62. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 64. Wind NW 7-14 mph.
2020: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 68. Wind SE at 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 68. Wind NE 4-8 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 72. Wind E 3-6 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 77. Wind ESE 3-6 mph.
2019: Thursday: Mostly cloudy and rainy. High of 66. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Due to fog, play at La Quinta Country Club was delayed one hour (9:30 a.m. start) and delayed at the Stadium and Nicklaus Tournament Courses one hour, 15 minutes (9:45 a.m. start). Friday: Sunny. High of 74. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 75. Wind light and variable 4-8 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 74. Wind SE 4-8 mph.
2018: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 78. Wind variable 4-8 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 78. Wind variable 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 65. Wind NW 20-30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 66. Wind variable 4-8 mph.
2017: Thursday: Overcast, with light morning rain. Mostly sunny in the afternoon, with a high of 64. Wind W 8-15 mph. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 61. Wind NE to SSE 8-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 63. Wind NW 10-15 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Sunday: Cloudy, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 61. Wind SSE 8-15 mph.
2016: Thursday: Clear skies with an afternoon high of 74 degrees. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 73 degrees. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 71 degrees. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with an afternoon high of 82 degrees. Wind NW 7-15 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for La Quinta, California is here.
Weather in the main looks great for The American Express. There has been no significant rain to speak of in the build-up and tournament week looks clear. Expect rolling fairways and greens which are always watered and responsive here. There is little wind in the forecast as per 12 months ago. Temperatures will also be similar to 2024: expect a pleasant 19 degrees Celsius – 66 Fahrenheit across the opening 54 holes, which then falls to 15 degrees Celsius – 59 Fahrenheit on Sunday.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Shriners Children’s Open / Andalucia Masters which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded, plus the Hero World Challenge. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Ricky Castillo / Kris Ventura; 3) Sungjae Im; 4) Wyndham Clark; 5) Sam Burns 6) Cameron Young; 7) Kevin Yu; 8) Patrick Cantlay / Max Greyserman; 10) Kurt Kitayama / Alejandro Tosti; 12) Antoine Rozner; 13) Davis Thompson / Danny Willett; 15) Jeremy Paul / Justin Thomas; 17) Daniel Berger; 18) Kevin Roy; 19) Rico Hoey; 20) Sam Stevens; 21) Lee Hodges / Si Woo Kim / Will Zalatoris; 24) Ben Griffin; 25) Bud Cauley / Rickie Fowler / Chris Gotterup.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Jackson Suber / Justin Thomas; 3) Bill Haas; 4) Sepp Straka; 5) Rickie Fowler; 6) Tom Kim; 7) Jason Day; 8) Ryan Gerard; 9) Jhonattan Vegas; 10) Hayden Buckley / Max Greyserman / Si Woo Kim; 13) Patrick Cantlay / Victor Perez / Antoine Rozner; 16) Wyndham Clark / Tony Finau; 18) Sungjae Im / Nick Taylor; 20) Sam Burns; 21) Ben Kohles / Matteo Manassero / Michael Thorbjornsen / Will Zalatoris; 25) Mac Meissner / Braden Thornberry.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Cameron Young; 2) Patrick Cantlay / Mackenzie Hughes; 4) Sungjae Im; 5) Sam Burns / Frankie Capan III; 7) Justin Thomas; 8) Wyndham Clark / Michael Thorbjornsen; 10) Matteo Manassero / J.T. Poston; 12) Jason Day / Antoine Rozner; 14) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 15) Andrew Novak; 16) Nick Dunlap; 17) Tony Finau / Kevin Yu; 19) Beau Hossler / Kurt Kitayama; 21) Ben Griffin / Harry Hall / Brian Harman / Zach Johnson; 25) Si Woo Kim / Davis Thompson.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Sungjae Im; 2) Justin Thomas; 3) Patrick Cantlay; 4) Sam Burns / Antoine Rozner; 6) Wyndham Clark; 7) Bud Cauley / Kurt Kitayama; 9) Rickie Fowler / Zach Johnson; 11) Sepp Straka; 12) Max Greyserman / Si Woo Kim / Cameron Young; 15) J.T. Poston; 16) Ben Griffin / Mac Meissner; 18) Jason Day / Lucas Glover / Sam Stevens; 21) Jhonattan Vegas; 22) Patrick Fishburn / Nick Taylor; 24) Kevin Yu; 25) Will Zalatoris.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Mason Andersen; 2) Vincent Norrman; 3) Emiliano Grillo; 4) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 5) Tony Finau / Antoine Rozner; 7) Brandt Snedeker; 8) Sam Burns; 9) Cameron Young; 10) Max Greyserman / Beau Hossler; 12) Harry Hall / Jackson Suber; 14) Wyndham Clark; 15) Patrick Cantlay / Sungjae Im; 17) Nicolas Echavarria; 18) Nick Dunlap; 19) Frankie Capan III; 20) Matti Schmid; 21) Jason Day / Jesper Svensson / Justin Thomas; 24) Eric Cole; 25) Rickie Fowler / Ryan Gerard / Chesson Hadley / Rikuya Hoshino / Braden Thornberry.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Antoine Rozner; 2) Jackson Suber; 3) Sungjae Im; 4) Max Greyserman / Justin Thomas; 6) Sam Burns / Harry Hall / Cameron Young; 9) Patrick Cantlay; 10) Rickie Fowler; 11) Tony Finau; 12) Wyndham Clark / Sepp Straka; 14) Kurt Kitayama; 15) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 16) Nicolas Echavarria / Lucas Glover; 18) Michael Kim / Mac Meissner / Michael Thorbjornsen; 21) Ryan Gerard / Ben Griffin / David Lipsky; 24) Nick Dunlap / Mark Hubbard / J.T. Poston.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of The American Express winners at the host Stadium Course (36 holes) since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this desert, short, Par 72:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2024, Nick Dunlap (-29). SG Off the Tee: 57th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 52nd, SG Tee to Green: 17th, SG Putting: 9th.
2023, Jon Rahm (-27). SG Off the Tee: 13th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 22nd, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 61st.
2022, Hudson Swafford (-23). SG Off the Tee: 45th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 25th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 2nd.
2021, Si Woo Kim (-23). SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 16th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 8th.
2020, Andrew Landry (-26). SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 65th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 6th.
2019, Adam Long (-26). SG Off the Tee: 40th, SG Approach: 43rd, SG Around the Green: 30th, SG Tee to Green: 46th, SG Putting: 9th.
2018, Jon Rahm (-22). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 60th, SG Tee to Green: 12th, SG Putting: 28th.
2017, Hudson Swafford (-20). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 71st, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 44th.
2016, Jason Dufner (-25). SG Off the Tee: 26th, SG Approach: 42nd, SG Around the Green: 8th, SG Tee to Green: 23rd, SG Putting: 14th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 22nd, SG Approach: 14th, SG Around the Green: 39th, SG Tee to Green: 15th, SG Putting: 20th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2024, Nick Dunlap (-17). 321 yards (4th), 58.9% fairways (57th), 80.6% greens in regulation (16th), 31’7″ proximity to hole (19th), 90.9% scrambling (2nd), 1.56 putts per GIR (14th).
2023, Jon Rahm (-27). 316 yards (11th), 69.6% fairways (24th), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 33’10” proximity to hole (43rd), 83.3% scrambling (7th), 1.57 putts per GIR (10th).
2022, Hudson Swafford (-23). 307 yards (13th), 64.3% fairways (37th), 72.2% greens in regulation (21st), 36’3″ proximity to hole (38th), 75.0 % scrambling (20th), 1.58 putts per GIR (5th).
2021, Si Woo Kim (-23). 300 yards (29th), 73.2% fairways (16th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 30’2″ proximity to hole (15th), 84.6 % scrambling (4th), 1.61 putts per GIR (11th).
2020, Andrew Landry (-26). 286 yards (61st), 75.0% fairways (3rd), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 27’11” proximity to hole (16th), 76.5 % scrambling (25th), 1.46 putts per GIR (1st).
2019, Adam Long (-26). 291 yards (28th), 69.6% fairways (12th), 70.8% greens in regulation (41st), 29’5″ proximity to hole (30th), 85.7 % scrambling (7th), 1.51 putts per GIR (1st).
2018, Jon Rahm (-22). 310 yards (5th), 64.3% fairways (28th), 72.2% greens in regulation (20th), 328″ proximity to hole (31st), 75.0 % scrambling (21st), 1.56 putts per GIR (8th).
2017, Hudson Swafford (-20). 307 yards (5th), 55.4% fairways (61st), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 30’2″ proximity to hole (27th), 71.4 % scrambling (30th), 1.66 putts per GIR (24th).
2016, Jason Dufner (-25). 290 yards (49th), 75.0% fairways (5th), 75.0% greens in regulation (15th), 30’6″ proximity to hole (20th), 72.2 % scrambling (40th), 1.54 putts per GIR (5th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 23rd, Driving Accuracy: 27th, Greens in Regulation: 14th, Proximity to Hole: 27th, Scrambling: 17th, Putting Average 9th.
So let’s take a view from players as to how the American Express courses set-up plus what skill sets the courses favour:
Nick Dunlap (2024): “No, I’m still trying to gain as much experience as I can. Obviously, like you said, I’ve played four, I guess, PGA Tour sanctioned events, counting the two U.S. Open, which I think those are different, they’re kind of their own animal. But, no, I’m still trying to learn as much as I can, and how some of these golf courses are different from college, but they’re still similar. Playing in front of the crowds, and, no, I’ve enjoyed it. I’m going to stick to what I’ve been doing, and that’s just give myself as many birdie chances as possible.
Honestly, I play a course back home in Huntsville, I played there for about two years, it’s very easy, it’s kind of in front of you, but it teaches you how to break that barrier of 8-, 9-, 10-under and keeping it going. Especially out here, I was 15-under through two rounds, and I wasn’t even, I was two back of the lead. So I think that kind of shows you, you have to keep your foot down out here. I think that kind of goes for all of professional golf. These guys are really, really good and it’s fun to be out here competing with them.”
Jon Rahm (2023): “The one thing I know is, I mean, if you’re somewhere between 20- and 25-under and I’m pretty sure 70 percent of that is done on two of the courses. You got to, I think the year I won I shot 16-under between La Quinta and Nicklaus. So the Stadium Course, if the wind picks up, can show some teeth, that can happen. You need to shoot low on those other two courses, no matter how it goes.”
Jon Rahm (La Quinta): “I’m happy I played this golf course in these easy of conditions. And, yeah, it can show some teeth because some of those fairways are quite narrow to hit. Missing fairways, it’s not going to cost you too much, but you can’t be throwing darts like you usually do off the fairway here. If you put it in the fairway you have a short iron in. If you start getting gusts, it can get away from you. Mainly because it’s a golf course where you can shoot of 5- or lower pretty often and if you play the other courses on pace and don’t shoot low here you can find yourself just a little bit off of the lead group. We all have to play all courses. If it’s blowing tomorrow on Nicklaus, Nicklaus can also show some teeth. It all evens out.”
Jon Rahm (Tournament): “That was probably the best I’ve ever had my wedge game. It was a distance today which was basically a hundred-yard-feeling shot that I had multiple times. I had it on, let’s say 10. I think I had it on 13, 14, 15. Close to it on 1 and on 5. That is six shots that none of ’em were outside eight feet and three of them were absolute tap-ins. One almost went in. So, yeah, that part of it was amazing. I hit a couple of really good long iron shots as well. Second shot into 7 was really good.”
Hudson Swafford (2022): “Yeah, I don’t know what the weather’s going to be like tomorrow, but you got to be patient, anything can happen here, last year I bogeyed the first hole, I was 1-over through the first six, I think I was six shots back when I was in the last group and played pretty flawless golf after that, bogey-free 6-under from there. So anything can happen. You give yourself chances, you can make some birdies out here. It is a little visually intimidating, so the fat side of the green’s not always terrible out here and that’s kind of going to be my game plan and just don’t have to come out and try to birdie every hole early, just kind of plod along.
I’ve fallen in love with this place. This is kind of my West Coast home, honestly. We base ourselves kind of out of the Hideaway just across the street. We have now, this is our 8th year. I come out here early before Sony, get some work in, get ready. I enjoy the weather here. I enjoy the grass. It’s all Bermuda grass. It’s what I grew up on. I don’t know why here. It just clicks. I see the lines on the greens pretty well here and I got a lot of confidence and a lot of good memories here, so I can pull on that and keep going.”
Si Woo Kim (2021): ” Yeah, I have great memories with this course. So for Q-School, I passed the Q-School on this course, and then I have great memories and then that’s why I feel confidence whenever I come to this course. So that helps a lot for me this week, especially I try to focus on the memories that gave me good scores, so that’s why it drove me to the win.”
“So on the back nine there’s a lot of birdie chances and I had to know what’s going on, so that helps me how to play my game the final round. So I kept watching the leaderboard. I knew that Cantlay played really well. So I knew I have a lot of chances on the back nine for birdies, so I tried to keep patient and I believed in myself and I got the chance on 16 and 17 and that’s when I could make it and I’m happy with that.”
Andrew Landry (Nicklaus Course): “I like that atmosphere over there, there’s some good holes, there’s some mediocre holes, you just got to drive the ball well out there, you got to hit your irons very well out there and you got to play smart, because there’s some par-5s out there that can jump up and bite you if you’re not playing smart. So we got a good game plan for it, we played well there in the past, and now we’ll see what happens tomorrow.
The key to this week has been good putting. I’ve been putting the ball absolutely beautifully and just kind of everything’s been there, my wedge play has been there, I hit some really good wedges. I went to a 54 degree this week instead of a playing a 52, 60 and it’s just kind of given me that 105 to 115 number just a lot better. And I’ve had it three or four times and I’ve hit every one of them gimmie. So the wedges are there, the putting’s there, just need to go out and go do it again tomorrow.”
Adam Long: “I had some pretty good hopes, I guess, because I played well in my practice rounds and made a lot of birdies and felt pretty good leading up to Thursday, so I would have been surprised had I not had a good start. But yeah, it’s three awesome golf courses and you hit fairways and greens and you can make a lot of putts because these greens on all three courses are just perfect. So you can make them from all over.I played here for Q-School in 2011, so, yeah, it’s been a bit. I think a junior tournament too before that. But been here a few times, but it’s a great place to play golf and, yeah, I’ve had good mojo here and hope to keep it going.”
Jon Rahm: “This area, the courses are always in really, really good shape, so it’s tough to pick one. But just because I’m familiar with it I would say the Nicklaus, just because I played it, I mean, this would be about my ninth round on this golf course, so I know it pretty good. But again, I feel like any other person, when you have a good day, any course is fit for you. It’s about making good shots. Well, yeah, I mean I’ve been living in this area for five years and most of the college tournaments we played was around here, so exactly, we played here – we played the Norman course as well – I’m just familiar with this type of golf course.
The Stadium Course, it’s a Pete Dye design, where I played four years of my life, it’s a Pete Dye design. Very, very similar type of golf. You need to hit it a lot more accurate off the tee because being in the fairway is a lot more important. With the small greens, you have water in play, you need to be more precise, clearly the hardest golf course. If you can have 5- or 6-under there you’re going to pick up a lot of shots. So hopefully have an organized round like I did yesterday, not have to fight too much to shoot under par.”
Hudson Swafford (Stadium): “Absolutely, yeah, no, this is a tough golf course. When you come to the desert, all you think is birdies, usually the scores yield birdies. But this Stadium Course has kind of changed that. I know there is a lot of good rounds out here, but one errant shot, it’s very penalizing. So you got to be super patient on this golf course.”
Jason Dufner: “I came out before I went to Sony and played these golf courses, both of them, twice. Spent some time out here practicing and playing. So I felt good. We have had some great weather, obviously that helps. The courses are in great shape. So I’m pretty comfortable right now.
The Stadium Course, it’s a difficult golf course. There’s a little bit of room to play off the tee, in my opinion, but if you get off the path a little bit, you can get into some trouble. He’s got some water out there, he’s got some tricky bunkers, you get some uneven lies here and there. The greens kind are difficult. They run on some angles and there’s some slope. So it’s definitely the most difficult of the courses we have played here in the desert area. But today it just was one of those days, but I had a wedge in my hand. So just be aggressive. I know that, if I miss, it’s a soft fade to the right, so I can manage that.”
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
6 – Justin Thomas.
4 – Sam Burns, Jason Day, Bill Haas, Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Ryan Palmer, Camilo Villegas.
3 – Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Brandt Snedeker, Nick Taylor.
2 – Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, Jason Dufner, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Mackenzie Hughes, Peter Malnati
1 – Wesley Bryan, Rafael Campos, Wyndham Clark, Nick Dunlap, Tony Finau, Chris Gotterup, Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, Nick Hardy, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Patton Kizzire, Luke List, Maverick McNealy, Keith Mitchell, Francesco Molinari, Taylor Moore, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, J.J. Spaun, Sepp Straka, Kevin Streelman, Adam Svensson, Brendon Todd, Jhonattan Vegas, Kevin Yu, Will Zalatoris.
Recent champions here include Dunlap (Amateur); Long (Tour Rookie); Swafford (1st time PGA Tour winner); Landry (1 win at the time); Si Woo Kim and Swafford (2022) (2 Wins); with Dufner (3 Wins). The very elite Jon Rahm won this in 2018 and 2023 – he had won 1 PGA Tour and 3 main Tour victories before winning here for the first time in 2017. Clearly it’s all up for grabs this week!
The plot thickens further when you look at the circumstances prior to victories for recent winners.
Last year’s Nick Dunlap victory was the perfect example for a tournament that’s synonymous with volatile winners from complete left-field. Given a sponsor’s invite as the 2023 U.S. Amateur champion, Dunlap arrived with professional tournament form of MC-MC-MC-MC, the last of which had come at the Bermuda Championship in November. He won at 350/1.
In 2023 Rahm’s American Express victory came just 2 weeks after winning The Sentry. He had also won the DP World Tour Championship in November the previous year.
2022 saw winner Hudson Swafford (another LIV defector) arrive here off of 5 made cuts in his last 6 events. 48th the week before at the Sony Open, which was his first event of 2022, inbound form was consistent if not spectacular, reading 48-MC-35-33-32-56. Naturally he’d won here in 2017.
Si Woo Kim had finished 25th the week before at the Sony Open, which had been his first event of 2021, where he opened with a -6/64. Prior to that his form was decent with 34th at The Masters, a 17th at the CJ Cup and 8th at the Shriners Open the highlights.
Andrew Landry had inbound form of MC/MC/MC/MC/MC before winning here in 2020. He has missed the cut the week before at the Sony Open. Out of 6 seasonal outings he had a single 23rd to his name. Course form lovers could have plucked out a 2nd place finish here 2 years earlier, where he lost in a play off to Jon Rahm, but let’s be frank – Landry was a find and a half.
Then we have Adam Long who was 600/1 prior to winning this. In 4 previous starts on the PGA Tour he had 3 Missed Cuts and a 63rd to his name. Again pick the bones from that! Rahm in 2018 had finished 2nd at Kapalua 2 weeks prior. Hudson Swafford in 2017 finished 13th the week before at Waialae – he had been T3 after 54 holes. 2016 saw Jason Dufner win this after another showing the week before at Waialae. He ultimately finished 9th at the Sony Open, and had been 6th after 54 holes. He had also won the Franklin Templeton Shoot Out in late December with Brandt Snedeker.
So what’s the right recipe for success this week? In all honesty it’s very hard to gauge as it would be at a tournament where the average winning price over the past 5 renewals has been 160/1 from a 350/1, 13/2 favourite, 175/1, 66/1, and 200/1. If previous renewals are anything to go by then all types of player can thrive here, both the long bomber, accurate ball-striker and a player who has a career-breaking week with the putter.
My The American Express Tips Are As Follows:
Max Greyserman 2pts EW 33/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes
Max Greyserman is a player I have been very impressed with since his promotion to the main Tour. Greyserman made it into the FedEx Cup top 50 in his rookie season last year and he’s undoubtedly tipped for great things. Long off the tee but far from flagrant, Greyserman ranked 60th for Greens in Regulation and 2nd for Strokes Gained Putting in 2024, but it’s his scoring power that really excites. 7th for Birdie Average, 40th for Eagles per Hole and 4th for Scoring Average (that is correct!) last season are numbers that highlight a high class sort.
Form-wise, 2nd at the ZOZO Championship, 4th at the World wide Technology Championship and 24th last time out at The Sentry highlights a player who’s competitive at standard domestic PGA Tour stop-offs. Interestingly he was 6th after 54 holes at the Signature-level Sentry on Maui a fortnight ago, mixing it with some of the world’s best players.
He can also go low as -8/63 at TPC Twin Cities, -10/60 at Sedgefield, -7/63 at Southwind, -7/64 at El Cardonal and -10/63 at Kapalua highlight more than adequately. 2nd place finishes at TPC Colorado and The Club at Indian Creek (Nebraska) in his 2023 Korn Ferry year highlight a liking for western climes and he has course experience as well, finishing 56th here 12 months ago when he was 28th after 54 holes in what was only his 2nd PGA Tour start.
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Barry O’Hanrahan (@AGoodTalkGolf) on the Golf Betting System Podcast highlighted Mac Meissner last week at the Sony Open as a second season player who needs to be well respected.
22nd last week at Waialae did that view no harm whatsoever especially as the 25 year-old from Dallas, Texas ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained on Approach and 16th for Tee to Green on his course debut in blustery conditions. Don’t think that’s any kind of fluke either as Meissner ranked 21st for Strokes Gained Tee to Green across the whole 2024 PGA Tour season, backed by a superb wedge and short iron approach game.
4 consecutive top-37 finishes on the PGA Tour sees Meissner sit in this field within the top 20 in my 8-tournament Strokes Gained Rankings and Mac is the type I look for at The American Express – a talented sort who sits deeper within the betting odds. He now starts to visit courses for the second time and will take positives from the fact that he shot 65-68 to sit 24th after 36 holes here on his PGA Tour debut 12 months ago – ultimately a Saturday 75 derailed his week.
4th at Barracuda Championship last July August sits well form-wise as 2024 Amex champion Nick Dunlap won that particular tournament at Old Greenwood.
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Bud Cauley must be looking forward to a long delayed return to PGA West having been sidelined for 3-plus years on the PGA Tour due to various injuries that stemmed all the way back to a 2018 car accident.
Now 18 events into his Major Medical Extension which started at the WM Phoenix Open last February – there are 9 events left – Bud has made solid progress towards to gaining back his full card, with a real acceleration from the autumn onwards. Form of 32 (Procore), 5 (Sanderson Farms), MC, 34 (Shriners), 25 (RSM), 30 (Sony) shows consistency and a great base for a contending performance on a course that suits.
PGA West must certainly be close to the top of Bud’s list. Since the move to the new 3-course rota in 2016, Cauley has finished 14th (2016), 3rd (2017), 14th (2018) and 4th (2020). $903,000 in earnings at PGA West is the highest grossing total across the whole PGA Tour schedule for the Floridian, who plays golf with close friend Justin Thomas as much as possible when off-duty. That translates to a ranking of 9th in this field in our American Express Strokes Gained rankings, although it’s worth noting that they relate only to rounds played on the host Stadium Course.
16th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green at Waialae last week when 30th, Cauley ranks 7th in this field across my 8-tournament Strokes Gained Tee to Green tracker.RESULT: WD Pre-Event
Michael Kim isn’t a player I tip that often, but The American Express is no ordinary PGA Tour event, especially as shocks happen more regularly than at other Tour stop-offs.
All prices are in play this week at a tournament where 8 of the last 15 winners have been at triple-digit prices and the average winning price going back to 2010 is nigh-on 150/1. A look at Kim’s CV highlights why he’s on the team this week. His 2018 John Deere Classic win came with a winning total of -27/257 and 4 of his 5 top prize money grossing tournaments include the Shriners Children’s Hospital Open, Wyndham Championship and here at The American Express. So that’s TPC Deere Run, TPC Summerlin, Sedgefield Country Club and the 3-course rota at PGA West. In summary, short courses where birdies are available when conditions allow.
Michael closed 2024 strongly with form of 5(Shriners)-30(WWT)-12(Bermuda)-11(RSM) with 3 of those performances being tournament bests (Shriners, Bermuda and RSM Classic). A missed cut last week at Waialae is no sweat, and I love the World Number 154’s chances this chances this week at a tournament where he was 2nd after 36 holes last year, eventually finishing T6.
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