From the majesty of the classical PebbleBeach, we travel back to the desert for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Expect dome-like playing conditions and over 600,000 fans at TPC Scottsdale with the return of the fully scaled up par-3 16th hole.
One thing though you always get at the Waste Management Phoenix Open is a close finish and of late a high-class, elite winner at altitude on Super Bowl weekend. This will be the first of the PGA’s ‘elevated status’ events with this week’s field competing for the increased purse of $20m, with the winner earning $3.6m.
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Course Guide: Since 2015, the PGA Tour professionals in the main have welcomed the Tom Weiskopf-inspired changes to the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale. 2014 had seen the course closed to undergo a major re-design which included new irrigation, re-surfacing of greens including new green locations at No. 2, No. 3, No. 4 and No. 14, bunker construction and tee construction. In all, 114 yards was added to the course across 11 holes, extending the layout to a 7,266 yard, Par 71 test.
Set at approximately 1,250 feet above sea level, players face a different challenge this week as the golf ball will travel slightly further than they’ve experienced across Hawaii and especially California to date. Talking of challenges, players also need to embrace the atmosphere on the Stadium Course with over 600,000 spectators in 2020 making this the most attended golf tournament on the planet.
Stadium Course, TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Arizona: Designer: Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish 1995, with Weiskopf re-design 2014; Course Type: Desert, Mid-Score, Altitude, Short; Par: 71; Length: 7,261 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 6; Fairways: Bermudagrass with Perennial Rye and fine fescue; Rough: Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Rye and fine fescue 2″; Greens: 7,069 sq.ft average featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis and Ryegrass; Tournament Stimp: 12ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 70.76 (-0.24), Difficulty Rank 29 of 49 courses. 2013: 68.95 (-2.05), Difficulty Rank 40 of 43 courses. 2014: 70.64 (-0.36), Rank 33 of 48 courses. 2015: 70.75 (-0.25), Rank 22 of 52 courses. 2016: 71.03 (+0.03), Rank 20 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.19 (-0.81), Rank 33 of 50 courses. 2018: 70.32 (-0.64), Rank 32 of 51 courses. 2019: 70.51 (-0.49), Rank of 24 of 49 courses. 2020: 70.32 (-0.64), Rank 18 of 41 courses. 2021: 69.46 (-1.54), Rank of 42 of 51 courses. 2022: 70.29 (-0.71), Rank 26 of 50 courses.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Tom Weiskopf designs include (including re-designs):
North Course, Torrey Pines 2017-2023 Farmers Insurance Open
TPC Scottsdale Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Scottsdale and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
Course Overview: Scoring at the Stadium Course tends to be around the -15/269 to -18/266 mark, unless course conditions are soft like they were in 2013 when Phil Mickelson won at an eye-watering -28/256.
The freshly renovated course features an additional 114 yards of length, with fresh green surfaces featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis. These green complexes have now been in place for just over 8 years so shouldn’t offer up too many surprises. They run pretty quick, unless rain comes and softens the course.
Undoubtedly the new Weiskopf-inspired Stadium Course is a tougher proposition than the previous set-up. Whilst greens aren’t that difficult to hit for the very best ball-strikers, interestingly getting the ball close to the hole is the real difficulty of the course. Proximity to Hole rankings of 2nd to 10th in terms of difficulty rank on the PGA Tour since the Weiskopf work highlight the fact that putters find it very difficult to be able to make the difference with their short game.
The course is scoreable, but when it’s played as it was intended in terms of fairway/green speeds, this tournament never features scoring like we see at PGA West for the reasons listed above. Throw in the fact that scrambling is relatively easy here and it’s clear that big hitting ball-strikers, who can consistently hit greens, have a real advantage here in the thinner air, especially when they can attack a set of par-5s which read 558, 558 and 553 yards on the scorecard, at altitude.
Waste Management Phoenix Open Winners: 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16); 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19); 2020: Webb Simpson (-17); 2019: Rickie Fowler (-17); 2018: Gary Woodland (-18); 2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17); 2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14); 2015: Brooks Koepka (-15); 2014: Kevin Stadler (-16); 2013: Phil Mickelson (-23); 2012: Kyle Stanley (-15); 2011: Mark Wilson (-18); 2010: Hunter Mahan (-16).
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats | SG Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are:- Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Tom Kim and Tom Hoge.
2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 80. Wind SW 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 79. Wind SW 4-8 mph. Saturday: Sunny with a high of 82. Wind NE 10-20 mph. Sunday: Sunny with a high of 80. Wind SW 4-8 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 70. Wind W 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 70. Wind W 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny with a high of 72. Wind W 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny with a high of 73. Wind SW 4-8 mph.
2020: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 73. Wind S 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 72. Wind W 3-6 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind S 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind S 6-12 mph.
2019: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 73. Wind S 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 71. Wind S 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 67. Wind S 6-12 mph. Sunday: Cloudy with light rain. High of 63. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
2018: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind SW 4-8 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind SW 4-8 mph.
2017: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 67. Wind NW 7-12 mph. Friday: Round one resumed at 8 a.m. and concluded at 8:28 a.m. Sunny, with a high in the low-70s. Wind NW 8-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 74. Wind light and variable 5-7 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind SW 4-8 mph.
2016: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 67 degrees. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 64 degrees. Wind NE 5-10 mph Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 77 degrees. Wind SW 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 78 degrees. Wind SW 4-8 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Scottsdale, Arizona is here.
I’m expecting colder conditions than 2022, with the whole tournament week set to be rain-free. Temperatures of 19-20 degrees Celsius (66-68 Fahrenheit), look set for the opening 3 days with 15mph breeze a factor across Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures fall to 13 degrees Celsius (55 Fahrenheit) on Sunday, with afternoon breeze up to 15mph. With little rain in the area in 2023, I would expect tournament organisers to have the course exactly where they want it, so we may well see firm fairways with plenty of roll and potentially releasing greens by Sunday.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Houston Open / Nedbank Challenge, which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Cameron Young; 3) Collin Morikawa; 4) Scottie Scheffler; 5) Corey Conners / Tyrrell Hatton / Jon Rahm; 8) Cameron Champ; 9) Joel Dahmen; 10) Gary Woodland; 11) Viktor Hovland; 12) Kevin Kisner; 13) Mac Homa / Jhonattan Vegas; 15) Keith Mitchell; 16) Brendan Steele; 17) Luke List / J.J. Spaun; 19) Tommy Fleetwood / Adam Svensson; 21) Tony Finau / Brian Harman; 23) Hayden Buckley / Patrick Cantlay; 25) Jason Day / Stephan Jaeger.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Max Homa; 2) Collin Morikawa; 3) Corey Conners / Tony Finau; 5) Jon Rahm; 6) Rory McIlroy / Cameron Young; 8) Tom Kim; 9) Justin Thomas; 10) J.T. Poston; 11) Russell Knox / Xander Schauffele / Scottie Scheffler; 14) Alex Noren; 15) Tommy Fleetwood / Jhonattan Vegas; 17) Tyrrell Hatton; 18) Adam Hadwin / Brendan Steele; 20) Lucas Herbert; 21) Russell Henley; 22) James Hahn / Tom Hoge / Adam Svensson; 25) Viktor Hovland.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Lucas Herbert / Justin Thomas; 3) Hideki Matsuyama; 4) Patrick Cantlay; 5) Aaron Wise; 6) Tommy Fleetwood; 7) Xander Schauffele; 8) Sam Burns / Corey Conners; 10) Seamus Power; 11) Wyndham Clark / Rory McIlroy / Erik van Rooyen; 14) Sungjae Im; 15) Max Homa; 16) Matt Kuchar; 17) Tom Kim; 18) Matt Fitzpatrick / Viktor Hovland; 20) Tony Finau / Andrew Putnam / Chad Ramey; 23) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 24) Billy Horschel / Taylor Montgomery / J.J. Spaun.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Collin Morikawa; 3) Jon Rahm; 4) Max Homa; 5) Scottie Scheffler; 6) Corey Conners; 7) Tony Finau; 8) Cam Young; 9) Tommy Fleetwood / Jhonattan Vegas; 11) Patrick Cantlay / Tyrrell Hatton / Xander Schauffele / Justin Thomas; 15) J.T. Poston; 16) Lucas Herbert; 17) Viktor Hovland / Tom Kim; 19) Hideki Matsuyama; 20) J.J. Spaun; 21) Kevin Kisner / Brendan Steele; 23) Alex Noren; 24) Seamus Power; 25) Brian Harman.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Max Homa; 2) Alex Noren; 3) Rory McIlroy; 4) Maverick McNealy; 5) Lucas Herbert; 6) Kevin Kisner; 7) Chris Kirk / Collin Morikawa; 9) Xander Schauffele; 10) Denny McCarthy; 11) Tony Finau; 12) Trey Mullinax; 13) Matt Fitzpatrick; 14) Sungjae Im; 15) Aaron Wise; 16) Adam Hadwin / Viktor Hovland; 18) Tyrrell Hatton; 19) Brian Harman; 20) Jason Day / Taylor Pendrith / Doc Redman; 23) Matt Kuchar / Adam Svensson; 25) Zach Johnson / Andrew Putnam.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Collin Morikawa / Alex Noren; 4) Tony Finau / Max Homa; 6) Jon Rahm; 7) Scottie Scheffler; 8) Lucas Herbert / Kevin Kisner / Xander Schauffele; 11) Justin Thomas; 12) Corey Conners / Tyrrell Hatton; 14) Viktor Hovland; 15) Adam Hadwin; 16) Cameron Young; 17) J.T. Poston; 18) Tommy Fleetwood / Si Woo Kim; 20) Chris Kirk / Jhonattan Vegas; 22) Joel Dahmen / Seamus Power; 24) Adam Svensson; 25) Brian Harman / Hideki Matsuyama.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Scottsdale since 2016 click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of Waste Management Phoenix Open winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2022, Scottie Scheffler (-16). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 55th, SG Around the Green: 8th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 2nd.
2021, Brooks Koepka (-19). SG Off the Tee: 11th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 32nd, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 18th.
2020, Webb Simpson (-17). SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 11th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 12th.
2019, Rickie Fowler (-17). SG Off the Tee: 3rd, SG Approach: 17th, SG Around the Green: 68th, SG Tee to Green: 19th, SG Putting: 1st.
2018, Gary Woodland (-18). SG Off the Tee: 12th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 32nd, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 16th.
2017, Hideki Matsuyama (-17). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 29th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 47th.
2016, Hideki Matsuyama (-14). SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 29th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 27th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 18th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of 8 Waste Management Phoenix Open winners post course re-design in 2014 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this desert golf test:
2022, Scottie Scheffler (-16). 328 yards (8th), 62.5% fairways (18th), 77.8% greens in regulation (11th), 37’10” proximity to hole (31st), 50.0 % scrambling (53rd), 1.66 putts per GIR (1st).
2021, Brooks Koepka (-19). 321 yards (6th), 62.5% fairways (27th), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 33’2″ proximity to hole (5th), 50.0 % scrambling (50th), 1.69 putts per GIR (10th).
2020, Webb Simpson (-17). 307 yards (44th), 71.4% fairways (3rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (6th), 35’4″ proximity to hole (7th), 68.8 % scrambling (14th), 1.66 putts per GIR (5th).
2019, Rickie Fowler (-17). 310 yards (11th), 69.6% fairways (3rd), 72.2% greens in regulation (13th), 39’11” proximity to hole (42nd), 75.0 % scrambling (6th), 1.59 putts per GIR (11th).
2018, Gary Woodland (-18). 318 yards (8th), 60.7% fairways (19th), 77.8% greens in regulation (4th), 34’11” proximity to hole (6th), 68.8 % scrambling (25th), 1.71 putts per GIR (10th).
2017, Hideki Matsuyama (-17). 311 yards (20th), 66.1% fairways (6th), 80.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 32’11” proximity to hole (3rd), 71.4 % scrambling (12th), 1.74 putts per GIR (26th).
2016, Hideki Matsuyama (-14). 296 yards (36th), 55.4% fairways (44th), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 35’10” proximity to hole (7th), 68.6 % scrambling (16th), 1.75 putts per GIR (32nd).
2015, Brooks Koepka (-15). 310 yards (3rd), 58.9% fairways (47th), 75.0% greens in regulation (4th), 35’2″ proximity to hole (10th), 83.3 % scrambling (2nd), 1.69 putts per GIR (11th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 17th, Driving Accuracy: 21st, Greens in Regulation: 5th, Proximity to Hole: 14th, Scrambling: 23rd, Putting Average 13th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how the TPC Scottsdale sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Scottie Scheffler (2022): “I mean with the way the wind was blowing it was a good wind for me on the first four holes with it being kind of off the right. But then you turn and you’re playing 14 through 17, with it in off the left is really awkward win for a righty. And so with how firm and fast the greens are, yeah, it was probably some of the best nine holes that I’ve had, just with, I mean, the way the wind direction was. Some of those holes can be pretty awkward.”
“Honestly in the playoff I would prefer a hole that would go left to right because Patrick likes to draw the ball off the tee and I like to fade it, so I would have liked for it to have been a different hole. But obviously I performed well in the playoff, so I’m still pleased with that one “
Brooks Koepka (2021): “I need the mojo. I need the energy. You make a birdie, all right, there is a little bit of excitement. You know, bogey, there is a little bit of embarrassment. All right, let’s correct it real quick. It hasn’t been that way. It’s been very flat and ho-hum.”
“I always thought I had a chance. I felt like the front nine I was just hanging in there. I think 2 kind of woke me up a little bit on 3 three, helped me there. I think on 12, Ricky said something to me about, We’re right there. We just need a little bit of momentum or a putt to go our way. Never know what’s going to happen. I thought if I got a good tee shot away on 13 I thought I was going to have a chance. Hit a great shot in there and just left the putt short. I think that tee box got me going. I saw where everybody was. There was a leaderboard. I didn’t really pay attention from when I left 9 until I got to the green on 12. I thought the lead was just going to keep going. I didn’t realize, James (Hahn) had I think a two-shot lead at that point over everybody else. I just figured if I could get somewhat close to James I might have a chance, you know, being par-5s, being able to hit it far. 17 was a good chance. I mean, I don’t know, I thrive on 16. Just the atmosphere. I love that, so I liked my chances even though I was well back. I never felt out of it.”
Webb Simpson (2020): “The golf course has gotten more firm every day, so it’s going to be challenging tomorrow, but guys I think are still looking at it as plenty of birdie opportunities. This course is playing shorter so we’re having shorter clubs in, even though the greens are more firm. But, yeah, I mean I didn’t think today teeing it up that I was going to go try to shoot 6- or 7-under. As boring as it sounds, all I really focus on is the first shot and you try to attack when you can attack and then the tougher holes you try to make par. And then you get hot for two days like I have and shoot 15-under and give myself a chance and we’ll see what happens tomorrow.
I compartmentalize everything. So if I got a sand wedge in my hand I’m going to be going right at it. If I got an 8-iron or 7-iron a little more conservative. If I need to adjust on the last few holes, I will, but the last two days I let the birdies come to me and it’s hard in this game when you try to force it. But there’s plenty of birdie holes, like I said, so if I keep playing solid there’s great opportunities for tomorrow..”
Rickie Fowler (2019): “I enjoyed it. I think the start getting off 10 and 11, hitting two good 3-woods in play, just nice solid ball flights, started where I wanted to, fell a little right. So it was great to get off to kind of a positive start. Obviously then was able to birdie 12, eagle 13. But I think 10 and 11’s tough to start on early in the morning, so it was nice to get that out of the way, you kind of get off heading the right direction and really just tried to play within myself, not try to do anything special, still working on some stuff on the swing and the last few weeks and trying not to focus too much of that on the golf course, just go play and still getting used to the golf ball as well. So I’m happy with where we’re at and where we’re heading.”
On 18 today I was trying to stay, I was actually trying to stay right of it, just with where the pin was and I toed it really bad. Yeah, I would say the, you know, last year it was out of play, but maybe not by much. Now it’s, I mean the water is completely out of play, I don’t have to think about that, but — I can’t go on Cameron Champ’s line, but I can get kind of the right half of the bunker. Yesterday was a good one, I think it maybe flew around 325 or 330. And the ball does go further here, but I’m happy about that with — I’m not very big, so, yeah, I would say right now not necessarily here because like I said the ball goes further, it used to be where the bunker at 290 if I hit one good I didn’t have to worry about, now I don’t have to worry about carrying it at 300.”
Gary Woodland (2018): “I put a lot of work in this off season. I mean obviously I knew what has been going on in the last couple years, short game, needed some adjustment, I spent some time with Pete Cowen. Pete really got me to where I have confidence in my short game and that allowed me to be more aggressive and let Butch and I do what we do. And play aggressive off the tee, play aggressive with the irons and attack from there. It’s been a big difference”
Jordan Spieth: “Yeah, I’ll play the 17th aggressively. I’ll try and knock it on the green. If I get out of position, you can always make par unless you hit it obviously in the water. You can still make par from there. They get that pin way in the back in that little sliver, and I’ll probably still try and hit driver up the green. If it goes offline and I can’t get next to the hole, then you hit it to about 20 feet and two-putt and don’t do anything more. I saw quite a few shots in my experience last time, including my own, and I think I made par to that hole by playing conservatively, and that’s fine. I think if you play the hole 2-under for the week, you’ve done a good job. So it will be a good test this week. These greens are very pure. If you’re putting well, you can really putt well out here. It’s not Poa annua.”
Hideki Matsuyama: “Before the re-design or the changes, I thought it was an easier course than it is now. I mean, the 2nd hole and the 14th hole have really put some bite into this course, and those are two difficult holes right now where before they weren’t that difficult.”
Brooks Koepka: “15, 16, 17 is just I think an unbelievable finish. There is so much risk reward, like you said. And if you hit a couple of quality golf shots, you can really make a move, whereas, you know, the opposite, you hit one bad one, and you can run up a number pretty quick. Luckily I was able to pull some shots off.”
Phil Mickelson: “I think, for the most part, they’re very well done. The first year you always have to cut some slack because the greens are firm and unreceptive because the roots haven’t had a chance to grow in. You want to cut it some slack the first year. But I think it looks really good. Surprisingly, the greens are putting very true and in wonderful shape. I was pleasantly surprised. In terms of new bunkering, I thought it was strategic and well-placed in a lot of holes. I have always liked Weiskopf’s stuff. He has great strategy from a player’s standpoint. Really not too much was done differently other than three or four holes; otherwise, very similar throughout.”
Bubba Watson: “It’s just a different mindset, I mean, when you’re adding length to a golf course you still have to hit driver. But it’s funny to me how they add length and then shorten the landing zone. They make it skinnier. They don’t want you to hit it any farther but they want to stretch the course out. It’s funny to me. It makes this golf course a lot different and tougher. Today I hit my driver nicely. I think I missed two fairways, which is pretty good for me. G30 worked out today. But, yeah, for me today it was about the driver. Around this golf course my driver stays in play. My irons are pretty decent. So now it’s a driving golf course. There are a couple things they could tweak here and there. It’s about 85 to 80% perfect the way they changed it, but there are a couple of little things. Nothing major, though. It doesn’t change the outcome of the score if you changed them, but just the way it looks.”
Ryan Palmer: “In the past it’s been better for me, I think, because there is a lot of shots that, a lot of draw ball tee shots. A lot of greens set up for me, as well, depending on where the pin is obviously. I was able to kind of attack the golf course with the length I have. From what it is now to what it used to be, it’s definitely longer, for sure. I used to hit a lot of wedges, sand wedges, and we are not doing that anymore. But I like what they did from tee to green. They did a lot of good things. There are a few greens that I’m sure if you ask a lot of players they weren’t very pleased about, but overall I think they did a really good job with it. It’s in perfect shape, for sure. Greens are rolling pretty pure, of course with the bounces they are getting. Overall I think they did a good job.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 13 Waste Management Phoenix Open winners:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the last 13 Waste Management Phoenix Open winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
8 – Rory McIlroy.
6 – Justin Thomas.
5 – Jordan Spieth.
4 – Jason Day, Brian Gay, Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson, Si Woo Kim, Jon Rahm.
3 – Sam Burns, Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Palmer, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler.
2 – Patrick Cantlay, Jason Dufner, Tyler Duncan, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, Chris Kirk, Scott Piercy, Webb Simpson, Robert Streb, Jimmy Walker.
1 – Keegan Bradley, Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Tony Finau, Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, James Hahn, Tyrrell Hatton, Jim Herman, Garrick Higgo, J.B. Holmes, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Patton Kizzire, Martin Laird, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Hideki Matsuyama, Keith Mitchell, Francesco Molinari, Collin Morikawa, J.T Poston, Seamus Power, Rory Sabbatini, J.J. Spaun, Scott Stallings, Kevin Streelman, Adam Svensson, Nick Taylor, Michael Thompson, Brendon Todd, Jhonattan Vegas, Nick Watney, Gary Woodland, Aaron Wise.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of altitude golf courses on the PGA Tour since 2018, with players in the field this week:
2018:
Chapultepec: Winner: Phil Mickelson; EW Places: Thomas, Hatton, Harman.
Old White: Winner: Kevin Na; EW Places: Kraft, Dahmen.
Montreux: Winner: Andrew Putnam; EW Places: Spaun.
Nine Bridges: Brooks Koepka; EW Places: Woodland, Palmer, Piercy, Reavie.
Old Greenwood: Winner: Chez Reavie; EW Places: Noren, Laird, Hubbard, Smotherman.
TPC Summerlin: Winner: Tom Kim; EW Places: Cantlay, NeSmith, Hoge, Im, Si Woo Kim.
So what’s the recipe for success this week? Well key player attributes rewarded here undoubtedly include driving distance (Simpson showed that’s not 100% essential), high-class ball-striking and an aggressive Going for the Green percentage. Players who can hit the ball consistently well thrive on Weiskopf’s design which features relatively large and flat green complexes. The re-laid greens themselves are quite tricky as they feature a TifEagle Bermudagrass base which has been overseeded with Poa Trivialis. All winners here since 2010 have featured in the top 13 for Greens in Regulation and I can’t see that changing in 2023. For course form buffs, course experience is not essential here as both Kyle Stanley and Brooks Koepka won on their course debut.
Looking at the incoming form of recent winners, defending champion Scottie Scheffler had decent enough form on his 2022 outings finishing 20th at Torrey Pines and 25th at PGA West, prior to taking his maiden PGA Tour title here. Autumn form though had seen him a level above that, finishing 2nd at Albany (Hero World Challenge), 2nd at Memorial Park (Houston Open) and 4th at El Camaleon (WWT Championship at Mayakoba). A first PGA Tour win was undoubtedly trending at 30/1.
Brooks Koepka had missed the cut at both of his 2021 outings, namely PGA West and Torrey Pines. His play in the autumn of 2020 has been better though with 7th at Augusta National and 5th at Houston, prior to a missed cut at El Camaleon. His 50/1 price for a 4-time Major champion and previous TPC Scottsdale winner (2015), had plenty of punters backing his ceiling.
Webb Simpson was on fire and went off at 14/1. A PGA Tour form-line of 3rd at Waialae on calendar debut, 2nd at Sea Island and 7th last time he visited the desert at TPC Summerlin, saw him go off as the 3rd favourite in the betting. Rickie Fowler in 2019 had played once in the year, prior to arriving in Scottsdale, finishing 66th at Torrey Pines the week before. 2018 had ended with a 5th at Tiger’s Hero World Challenge and 4th at TPC Summerlin.
Gary Woodland in 2018 had gone backwards when contending at Torrey Pines the week before. However an eventual 12th at Torrey was preceded by 7th at Waialae. Hideki Matsuyama in 2017 had finished 33rd at Torrey Pines and 27th at Waialae prior to arriving in Arizona, allowing his odds to grow to 11/1. Prior to that 4 wins and 2 runner-up positions including season-opener Kapalua had made him the hottest player on the planet. 2016 had seen him miss the cut at Torrey Pines on his 2016 debut, but 2nd at the Dunlop Phoenix in Japan and 5th at the CIMB Classic in Kuala Lumpur at the latter end of 2015 had shown promise in low-scoring events.
Brooks Koepka had started the 2014/15 PGA Tour season strongly with 8th at Silverado and 4th at TPC Summerlin followed by his first main Tour career victory at the star-studded Turkish Airlines Open on the European Tour. This was his calendar debut. In 2014, ‘Baby Walrus’ Kevin Stadler had shaken the rust off at PGA West (78th) after a strong close to 2013 which included 4th at TPC Boston, 19th at Kuala Lumpur, 10th at Sea Island and 12th at El Camaleon.
My Final Waste Management Phoenix Open tips are as follows:
Collin Morikawa 2.25pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Finding this price about Collin Morikawa is pleasing this week.
Current form of 3/2/6 is excellent and Collin is undoubtedly the sort who will be desperate to get a win under his belt sooner rather than later. Unbelievably his last win on United States soil was the 2021 Workday Championship at Concession in Florida – that was virtually 2 years ago. His last PGA Tour win was the 2021 Open Championship and his last professional win was the 2021 DP World Tour Championship at the Earth Course. For a player of Morikawa’s ability, world ranking and winning mentality, no victory win for over 15 months is a huge motivator.
So why the big price? Well clearly McIlroy and Rahm are both in a Major Championship-strength field. Prices further down have to get bigger, but even I’m surprised to see Morikawa at a substantially bigger price than for the Farmers Insurance Open, when he was 14/1. For me, TPC Scottsdale fits Morikawa’s game far more than the +7,700 yard Torrey Pines, where players with a little more pop are ultimately more successful.
So I love the World Number’s 7 chances this week. Collin’s maiden PGA Tour victory came in the desert and at altitude at the 2019 Barracuda Championship played in Reno, Nevada. And when you look at his victories he’s actually a sneaky scorer. He won the 2020 Workday Charity Open at -19/269 played at Muirfield Village and his WGC triumph at Concession came at -18/270.
It’s also worth remembering that Collin bases himself out of Las Vegas, Nevada, so he’s used to desert climes and altitude golf. Morikawa is a house owner and club member at The Summit Club, and uses this as his practice facility. So it was no real surprise when he finished 2nd to Rory McIlroy at the 2021 CJ Cup which was hosted there. His liking for desert golf can also be seen on his one appearance here in 2020: back then he finished 21st ranking 2nd for Strokes Gained on Approach and 1st for Strokes Gained Tee to Green. If the putter is neutral or slightly positive on Super Bowl week, expect fireworks from Collin. RESULT: MC
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Tony Finau 2.25pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
I get the feeling that Tony Finau has both the current form and the motivation to take care of some unfinished business here at the Waste Management Phoenix Open this week.
The 28 year-old, who grew up in Salt Lake City, Utah and who lives just up the road from TPC Scottsdale, has always had a great record on the west coast. 4th at PGA West in 2021; 4th (2017), 6th (2018), 6th (2020) and 2nd (2021) at Torrey Pines; 2nd (2018) and 2nd (2021) at Riviera Country Club, plus 2nd (2018) at Silverado Country Club. However you will note that Tony has yet to win in what is effectively his back yard. He’s gone mighty close though. Finau has lost out in 2 play-offs in Los Angeles and here in Arizona, losing to Max Homa at Riviera in 2021 and to Webb Simpson here in 2020.
And despite 3 wins across his last 11 stroke play events, Tony finds himself an unlikely 13th in the qualification standings for Team USA for the Ryder Cup, behind the likes of Chris Kirk, Tom Hoge and even Hayden Buckley. 2023 form of 7th at the Tournament of Champions, 16th at The American Express and 9th at the Farmers Insurance Open, which featured a Saturday -8/64, highlights that Tony is playing some brilliant golf right now. That’s best highlighted by a set of traditional skill set statistics which included 7th for Greens in Regulation, 7th for Total Accuracy, 7th for Ball Striking and 3rd for Strokes Gained Tee to Green around the rigours of Torrey Pines South a fortnight ago. RESULT: T14
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A line of enquiry which says elite players who haven’t won for a period of time on the PGA Tour seems to work here. Scottie Scheffler also proved 12 months ago that can include rookies. Indeed both Koepka and Scheffler have won maiden PGA Tour titles here, sitting within the world’s top 35 players at the time. Look at the data and the last 5 winners here had won their last professional tournament 30 months ago (Scheffler on the Korn Ferry), 19 months ago (Koepka), 20 months ago (Simpson), 23 months ago (Fowler) and 3.5 years ago (Woodland).
Sungjae Im has an excellent track record in the desert. Indeed his last PGA Tour victory came at the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open – for those counting that was 16 months ago – played at TPC Summerlin. That is a short, desert, par 71 played at altitude where he has also finished 15th (2018), 13th (2019) and 7th (2022). The strong desert results continue at PGA West with 12th (2019), 10th (2020), 12th (2021) 11th (2022) and 18th (2023); plus you can throw in 9th (2021) at The Summit Club.
A long enough (top 25 Driving Distance All Drives this season) and talented ball striker who can score extremely heavily – take his 63 at TPC Summerlin and 65 at Kapalua already this season as examples – Sungjae seems to be a great fit for the Phoenix Open. Indeed 3 attempts here in Scottsdale have seen the 24 year-old, who lives in Atlanta, finish 7th (2019), 34th (2020) and 17th (2021). And his last round here was a positive one as he shot -6/65 which was T4 for the day and level with Brooks Koepka who took the title.
4th last time out at Torrey Pines, Im’s approach play was in rude health as he ranked 7th for Greens in Regulation, 2nd for Strokes Gained on Approach and 5th for Tee to Green. RESULT: T6
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Rickie Fowler 1pt EW 66/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
If there is one course you back Rickie Fowler at, well it has to be TPC Scottsdale. And let’s be fair and honest, Rickie’s game has undoubtedly grown green shoots this season. 6th at the Fortinet Championship, 2nd to Keegan Bradley at the ZOZO Championship was very notable indeed. 67-63 to open saw Fowler in the lead after 36 holes and he remained in contention across the tournament, through Saturday and into Sunday, where he came up a shot shy of Keegan. From there you might have expected a run of tournaments to the close of 2022, but Rickie wintered-up preparing for what he hopes will be a big 2023.
54th on his 2023 debut at PGA West, Rickie raised eyebrows a fortnight ago at Torrey Pines. Now Rickie’s results since 2014 at the Farmers read MC-61-MC-MC-MC-66-MC-53-MC – hardly encouraging. But Fowler again added to those green shoots of optimism about his game, finishing 11th, where from a Strokes Gained perspective he ranked 17th for Off the Tee, 9th for Approach and 10th for Putting.
2nd (2010), 13th (2011), 2nd (2016), 4th (2017), 11th (2018) and 1st (2019) here at TPC Scottsdale over the years and with a tee to green game this season which ranks in the top 20 for Total Driving and the top 10 for Ball Striking, I like Rickie’s chances of a great week. RESULT: T10
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2023 Majors Competition, Sponsored By bet365
