Wells Fargo Championship Tips 2023

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Congratulations if you were on-board Tony Finau at 8/1 last week at the Mexico Open. I’ll repeat that: Tony Finau an 8/1 winner on the PGA Tour. That highlights precisely where we have got to on the Tour, where short-priced winners are now the norm. As a man who is still to update to this brave new world and ignored the big 2 in Mexico, I was happy enough with a full each-way place on 90/1 Akshay Bhatia.

The PGA Tour travels to Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship. One of the biggest PGA Tour ‘domestic’ tournaments of the year, 2023 rightfully sees it having designated status, guaranteeing a very strong field at a wonderful golf course. It’s the perfect warm-up for the second Major of 2023 in 2 weeks time at Oak Hill, New York.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Wells Fargo Championship we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: The Wells Fargo Championship is now back at its spiritual home at Quail Hollow. After its 2016 Tom Fazio re-design prior to the 2017 PGA Championship, the basic layout of Quail Hollow changed from a scoreable Par 72 to a toughened Par 71 format, with the front of the golf course substantially “beefed-up”. Effectively though the course, despite only being built by George Cobb in 1961, is very much an old-style, classical golf course which has always received excellent reviews from the world’s best players.

From a detail perspective, it’s important to note that a significant part of the re-design saw the greens changed from MiniVerde Bermudagrass to Champion Bermudagrass – they are also overseeded with Poa Trivialis for the Wells Fargo. Similar Champion Bermudagrass greens can be found across PGA Tour stop-offs at Congaree (2021 Palmetto Championship & 2022 CJ Cup), the Country Club of Jackson (Sandersons Farms Championship), Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), TPC Southwind (WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational & FedEx St Jude Championship), Trinity Forest (2018 & 2019 HP Byron Nelson) and the Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail (Barbasol Championship 2015 through 2017). The 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Cub and won by Keegan Bradley also featured Champion Bermudagrass putting surfaces.

Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina: Designer: George Cobb with 2013 & 2016 Tom Fazio re-design; Course Type: Classical, Carolina, Long; Par: 71; Length: 7,538 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 7; Fairways 419 Bermudagrass; Rough: 419 Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass 2”; Greens: 6,578 sq.ft average featuring G12 Champion Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimp: 12ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 71.84 (-0.16), Difficulty Rank 25 of 49 courses. 2013: 73.04 (+1.04), Difficulty Rank 10 of 43 courses. 2014: 72.55 (+0.55), Rank 13 of 48 courses. 2015: 71.92 (-0.08), Difficulty Rank of 20 of 52 courses. 2016: 72.95 (+0.95), Rank 9 of 50 courses. 2017: PGA Championship 73.47 (+2.47), Rank 1 of 50 courses. 2018: 72.13 (+1.13), Rank 5 of 51 courses. 2019: 71.76 (+0.76), Rank 8 of 49 courses. 2021: 72.26 (+0.26), Rank 5 of 51 courses.

Quail Hollow Fairway Widths (yards) : Below are the fairway widths for Quail Hollow and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

• Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:32; 300:31; 325:30; 350:29.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
• Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
• PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
• Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Tom Fazio designs include:

• Atunyote GC – Turning Stone Championship 2007-10.
• Caves Valley GC – BMW Championship 2021.
• Congaree GC – Palmetto Championship 2021 + CJ Cup 2022.
• Conway Farms GC – BMW Championship 2013, 2015, 2017.
• Corales GC – Corales Championship
• Eagle Point – Wells Fargo Championship 2017.
• Raptor Course Greyhawk GC – Fry’s.com Open 2008/09.
• Shadow Creek GC – CJ Cup 2020.
• The Summit Club – CJ Cup 2021.

Fazio has also had renovation input into:

• Riviera Country Club – Genesis Invitational.
• Merion – 2013 U.S. Open.
• Oakmont – 2016 U.S. Open.
• Seaside Course at Sea Island – RSM Classic

Course Overview: Quail Hollow is very much a classical golf course with Carolina connotations. When I say Carolina think Pinehurst Number 2, Harbour Town Golf Links, Sedgefield Country Club and even the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, which despite being in Florida has the real feel of a Carolina golf course – so traditionally tree-lined, with narrow sight lines from the tee and plenty of dog-legs.

Quail Hollow will play to 7,538 yards this week and that is an incredibly long Par 71. Purely from a PGA Tour, Par 71 perspective, only Bethpage Black (2016 Barclays) and the Blue Course at Congressional (AT&T National 2012-14 & Quicken Loans National 2016) have played anywhere near this length in modern times.

After James Hahn won the 2016 Wells Fargo Championship, Tom Fazio-inspired work started on the course with a 90-day window allowing significant changes to the very start of the front 9. The 1st is now a 495 yard dog-leg right par-4, which was previously a sub-420 yard birdie opportunity. The 178 yard par-3 2nd hole is no more (it was used to lengthen the 1st) and a new 184 yard par-3, namely the 4th hole, was been built to replace it. As a consequence the 5th has now been shortened from a 570 yard par-5 to a 449 yard par-4. At the 11th hole a 100% new green complex was built and the par-4 has been lengthened by 35 yards, which now plays 462 yards.

Below I’ve listed the par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring splits of Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Jason Day and Justin Thomas who have won at Quail since the re-design:

• Rory McIlroy: +1 (par-3), -5 (par-4), -6 (par-5), total -10/274.
• Max Homa: Even (par-3), -6 (par-4), -9 (par-5), total -15/269.
• Jason Day: Even (par-3), -3 (par-4), -9 (par-5), total -12/272.
• Justin Thomas: +1 (par-3), -2 (par-4), -7 (par-5), total -8/276.

And here’s the breakdown of Wells Fargo Championship winners here since 2014 when the course received its first Tom Fazio re-design and Bermudagrass greens:

• James Hahn: +5 (par-3), -5 (par-4), -9 (par-5), total -9/279.
• Rory McIlroy: +3, -11, -13, total -21/267. (McIlroy won by 7 shots)
• B. Holmes: -2, -2, -10, total -14/274.

The key to winning at Quail Hollow has always been to score heavily on the par-5s and play the other holes at around -3 to -4 or slightly better. So to contend this week a player will need to master the 7th, 10th and 15th holes. From the par-5s onwards, the course naturally gets tougher. It’s worth pointing out that the course for the Wells Fargo plays slightly shorter than it did for the 2017 PGA Championship, with 96 yards having been knocked off the scorecard, so Quail Hollow will play as a 7,538 yard, Par 71 for the tournament this week.

Quail Hollow Winners inc 2017 PGA Championship: 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10); 2019: Max Homa (-15); 2018: Jason Day (-12); 2017: Justin Thomas (-8); 2016: James Hahn (-9); 2015: Rory McIlroy (-21); 2014: J.B. Holmes (-14); 2013: Derek Ernst (-8); 2012: Rickie Fowler (-14); 2011: Lucas Glover (-15); 2010: Rory McIlroy (-15).

• 2021: Rory McIlroy 72-66-68-68 -10/274
• 2019: Max Homa 69-63-70-67 -15/269
• 2018: Jason Day 69-67-67-69 -12/272

OWGR of Quail Hollow Wells Fargo Championship Winners: 2022: Homa 38; 2021: McIlroy 15; 2019: Homa 413; 2018: Day 14.

Quail Hollow Cut Line: 2021: +2; 2019: -1; 2018: +3.

Quail Hollow Lead Score Progression:

• 2021: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -6; Round 3 -9; Round 4 -10.
• 2019: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -11; Round 4 -15.
• 2018: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -7; Round 3 -10; Round 4 -12.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Gary Woodland, Cameron Young, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Luke List and Corey Conners.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Wells Fargo Championship Winners & Prices: 2022: Homa 40/1; 2021: McIlroy 18/1; 2019: Homa 500/1; 2018: Day 20/1; 2017: Harman 80/1; 2016: Hahn 500/1; 2015: Rory McIlroy 7/2; 2014: Holmes 66/1; 2013: Ernst 500/1; 2012: Fowler 50/1; 2011: Glover 110/1; 2010: McIlroy 66/1.  Past 8 Renewals Average: 153/1. Overall Average: 163/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2021: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 71. Wind NNW 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 69. Wind NW 12-18 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Saturday: Partly sunny and breezy. High of 74. Wind W 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Partly Cloudy. High of 81. Wind SSW 12-15 mph with gusts of 30 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 86. Wind SSW 7-14 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSW 7-14 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 84. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Play was suspended at 3:37 p.m. ET due to thunderstorms and resumed at 4:48 p.m., a delay of one hour, 11 minutes. A second weather delay began at 5:18 p.m. and lasted one hour, six minutes before play resumed at 6:24 p.m. Sunday: Mostly cloudy and rainy. High of 80. Wind WNW 10-20 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended from 5:09 p.m. to 6:11 p.m., a delay of 62 minutes.
• 2018: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 86. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 87. Wind SSW 10-18 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind S 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny with a high of 84. Wind WNW 12-22 mph.

• 2017: Played at Eagle Point.
• 2016: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 63. Wind NW at 10-15 with gusts up to 25 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 63 degrees. Wind NW at 15-25 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 78 degrees. Wind WSW at 10-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85 degrees. Wind W at 10-15 mph.
• 2015: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 79 degrees. Winds variable 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 79 degrees. Winds variable 6-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85 degrees. Winds S/SW 7-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 86 degrees. Winds SW 6-12 mph.

Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Charlotte, North Carolina, is here.

We may see some cooler weather than we’re used to in Charlotte this week, at a venue which is renowned for being hot and humid. 22 degrees Celsius (71 Fahrenheit) is nothing untoward, but is relatively cool for here. 86mm of rain pre-tournament week is quite a lot, but course Sub-Air gives tournament organisers total control with Quail usually playing on the fast side, as it should. The wind forecast looks calm, but there is the threat of rain for Saturday morning.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Players Championship / Kenya Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Patrick Cantlay; 3) Hayden Buckley / Viktor Hovland; 5) Gary Woodland; 6) Sungjae Im; 7) Cam Davis; 8) Sam Burns /  / Corey Conners / Adam Schenk / Cameron Young; 12) Cameron Champ / Shane Lowry / Collin Morikawa; 15) Brian Harman; 16) Tyrrell Hatton; 17) Taylor Moore; 18) Chris Kirk / Tom Kim / J.J. Spaun / Sahith Theegala / Carson Young; 23) Luke List / Michael Thompson; 25) Aaron Rai / Justin Thomas.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Patrick Cantlay / Tony Finau; 3) Xander Schauffele / Jordan Spieth; 5) Collin Morikawa; 6) Viktor Hovland; 7) Adam Svensson; 8) Hayden Buckley / Jason Day / Rickie Fowler; 11) Sam Stevens; 12) Justin Thomas; 13) Erik van Rooyen / Gary Woodland; 15) Sungjae Im; 16) Wyndham Clark / Joel Dahmen / Shane Lowry / Ben Martin / Andrew Putnam; 21) Tommy Fleetwood / Cameron Young; 23) Taylor Moore; 24) Si Woo Kim; 25) Chesson Hadley / Matt Kuchar.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Rory Sabbatini; 2) Ben Griffin; 3) Xander Schauffele; 4) Jason Day; 5) Denny McCarthy; 6) Joseph Bramlett / Matt Kuchar; 8) Brendon Todd; 9) Harry Hall; 10) Byeong Hun An / Jordan Spieth; 12) Andrew Landry; 13) Harris English / Stephan Jaeger; 15) Adam Scott; 16) Garrick Higgo / Alex Noren; 18) Sungjae Im; 19) Chris Kirk; 20) Chad Ramey; 21) Max Homa / Justin Thomas; 23) Tony Finau / Matt Fitzpatrick / Taylor Montgomery.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Patrick Cantlay; 2) Viktor Hovland; 3) Collin Morikawa / Jordan Spieth; 5) Xander Schauffele; 6) Tony Finau / Sungjae Im / Justin Thomas; 9) Denny McCarthy; 10) Jason Day; 11) Hayden Buckley; 12) Wyndham Clark / Matt Kuchar / Shane Lowry / Gary Woodland / Cameron Young; 17) Tommy Fleetwood / Rickie Fowler; 19) Adam Svensson; 20) Tyrrell Hatton; 21) Chris Kirk; 22) Cam Davis / Si Woo Kim; 24) Patrick Rodgers / J.J. Spaun.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Rory Sabbatini; 2) Sam Ryder; 3) Michael Kim; 4) Sam Burns; 5) Taylor Moore; 6) Matt Fitzpatrick; 7) Emiliano Grillo / Jordan Spieth; 9) Chad Ramey; 10) Taylor Montgomery; 11) Webb Simpson / Justin Suh; 13) Wyndham Clark; 14) Rickie Fowler / Patton Kizzire / Xander Schauffele; 17) Pierceson Coody / Brendon Todd; 19) Tommy Fleetwood / Ben Griffin; 21) Eric Cole / M.J. Daffue / Brian Harman; 24) Patrick Cantlay; 25) Jimmy Walker.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Patrick Cantlay; 2) Xander Schauffele; 3) Jordan Spieth; 4) Sungjae Im; 5) Rory Sabbatini; 6) Tony Finau; 7) Wyndham Clark; 8) Sam Burns; 9) Rickie Fowler / Collin Morikawa; 11) Jason Day / Taylor Moore; 13) Denny McCarthy; 14) Hayden Buckley / Tommy Fleetwood / Cameron Young; 17) Cam Davis; 18) Byeong Hun An; 19) Eric Cole / Viktor Hovland / Matt Kuchar; 22) Tyrrell Hatton; 23) Matt Fitzpatrick / Ben Martin; 25) Dylan Wu.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Wells Fargo Championship winners here at Quail Hollow since 2018 (course re-design) gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2021, Rory McIlroy (-10). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 10th, SG Around the Green: 41st, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 3rd.
• 2019, Max Homa (-15). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 41st, SG Tee to Green: 12th, SG Putting: 1st.
• 2018, Jason Day (-12). SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 50th, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 2nd.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 24th, SG Around the Green: 28th, SG Tee to Green: 10th, SG Putting: 2nd.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Wells Fargo Championship winners here since 2018 (course re-design) gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:

• 2021, Rory McIlroy (-10). 324 yards (2nd), 33.9% fairways (76th), 75.0% greens in regulation (3rd), 40’6″ proximity to hole (12th), 77.8 % scrambling (1st), 1.74 putts per GIR (20th).
• 2019, Max Homa (-15). 313 yards (21st), 55.4% fairways (45th), 68.1% greens in regulation (17th), 37’10” proximity to hole (14th), 78.3 % scrambling (2nd), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2018, Jason Day (-12). 326 yards (14th), 48.2% fairways (49th), 56.9% greens in regulation (69th), 44’2″ proximity to hole (58th), 77.4 % scrambling (2nd), 1.59 putts per GIR (1st).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 12th, Driving Accuracy: 57th, Greens in Regulation: 30th, Proximity to Hole: 28th, Scrambling: 2nd, Putting Average 7th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how the Quail Hollow Course sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Rory McIlroy (2021): “Yeah, I’ve putted well all week. Historically I’ve putted these greens well and I just, though they’ve changed from bent greens when I first came here to Bermudagrass, I’ve always been able to see the lines. So I’ve been comfortable with that. Then it’s just a matter of trusting that I’m putting good strokes on them. I think more than anything today, my speed was good and that was, you know, when the greens get tricky and there’s wind and there’s tough reads, speed’s almost more important than anything else. My speed was good today and probably part of the reason why I was able to hole a few.”

Keith Mitchell (2021): “My driver feels great, and around this place you’ve really got to drive it well, so I’m sure the stats would say that. Really all of it feels good right now. Really just trying to keep the ball in front of me right now and see what we can do tomorrow. This is a Major championship test when you put yourself out of position and it turns almost impossible. You’ve really got to pick and choose to the flags necessarily. They can put them right on the grain changes and put them right on the edges and sometimes your good shot’s 25 feet from the hole and some holes you can go for birdie. That’s really why it feels that way, because it’s not like every hole you can attack. You have to be very precise.”

“Really tough golf courses demand every part of your game. I’ve definitely played poorly on tough golf courses, but my best weeks have been at the tough ones, Bay Hill, Honda, here. You just, when you hit a bad shot you get penalized and when you hit a good shot you get rewarded. Some golf courses on the PGA Tour where you can hit bad shots, get away with it and still try to make birdie. You can’t do that here. I think that’s a true test of golf. I don’t think golf would be fun if every course was like this. I just feel more comfortable around a tougher course.”

Viktor Hovland (2021): “Yeah, it was weird, and sometimes you would feel a gust of 15 miles an hour and then it would just be dead quiet 15 seconds later. So it was strange. But this place is so big that, even though you’re in between decisions, you kind of have a bigger area you can kind of err towards. So if it would have been another place where the greens are smaller, it would have been I think a little tougher, but it definitely doesn’t make it easy when you’re hitting shots from 225 yards into par 4s. Yeah, it didn’t make it easier.”

“There’s one thing I feel like, not to say anything bad about this place, but I think this place is more of kind of a driving range golf course. The fairways are, they’re not narrow and they’re not wide, but it’s what you see, what you get. And the greens are pretty big. It’s all about just can you hit it in the centre of the face or are you hitting it in bunkers and rough and you’re going to have a tough day. I appreciate the more strategic places, but obviously if you come to this place and don’t like it, there’s something wrong with you.”

Max Homa (2019): “Honestly, if you look deep in the stats, which nobody does for me, but it’s been really good. I’ve been driving it great. That’s usually kind of my hiccup. I’ve been driving it pretty far and very straight. I just haven’t been chipping well and haven’t really made the putts to keep the round going and I did that really well yesterday. I thought it was pretty hard yesterday. Did that really well yesterday and just kept it going today. I usually hit the ball pretty well. A course like this sets up great for me, a lot of 7-irons, 8-irons in, drive it in the fairway. So I’m not really that surprised. Everybody else probably will be, but I was kind of waiting for this to happen.”

Jason Day (2018): “Yeah, obviously we had Bermudagrass last August at the PGA, and this is, I think, definitely an easier grass to play on (overseeded with Poa Trivialis). I think Bermuda, coming out of the rough, you have more chances of having big flyers. The biggest thing is there were a couple times when I was in the rough and I really catch a flyer, and you know that when you’re in Bermudagrass, you’ve got to catch it. And if you’re in the rough and you’re trying to land it on these greens, which are bouncing five to 10 paces with a wedge, that makes it difficult to hold greens. I think this is definitely an easier grass, but also still playing difficult because it’s obviously the scores reflect how the course is.”

“Yeah, I know that I’ve had some decent finishes here, but the PGA definitely kind of tipped it over the edge. I know that I can play well here because of how difficult the golf course is. When I realized last week, you know, we’re coming into a week like this where it’s 80 to 85 degrees, hot. They had some good rain the week prior to that, the course is going to be in perfect condition how the grass has come in. You’ve just got to come out and try and get yourself — plot yourself around the golf course. For me, I’m able to take some advantage with my driving. And it was good to be able to come to a golf course like this where I know it’s very difficult. I think everyone else is obviously having a tough time with it, too. It’s a major championship golf course so you’ve got to come out and be patient with yourself and take your chances when you get them.”

Justin Thomas (2017): “Yesterday I was playing really well, hitting great shots. When you have 4, 5, 6-irons in your hand, you need to be defensive. For the most part, I had some not aggressive but more aggressive than normal lines just because I felt good about my golf swing and what I was doing with my ball. If I have a longer club in my hand, I’m just trying to get it on the green and get out with a par and move on.”

“Any time you can get softer conditions, the golf course is going to be easier. Doesn’t matter what course it is. I mean, look at years at Augusta, the scores have been really low. I know there’s SubAir and they can get them firmer, but at the end of the day, when there’s no rain and the greens are really firm, it’s really difficult. And when the greens are softer, we’re pretty good at golf. So it’s a lot easier when the ball isn’t going to go as far as when it lands because we feel like we have more control over it. When you get as tough of greens and around the greens as it is out here, softness is going to allow us to hit more greens and get it closer to where we want. I would say that had pretty much all to do with it.”

Jimmy Walker: “We’re used to playing it with rye grass everywhere. It has a potential, with the pure Bermudagrass layout, to play really firm and really fast. That’s when golf gets really hard, when you start losing control of the golf ball. Bermuda rough tends to fly a lot, or it could come out where you get some horrendous lies. Guys are going to have to deal with that: ‘Am I going to get the big jumper?’ Or ‘Will I get the really soft shot that comes out?’ “Even around the greens, Bermuda rough is very hard to chip out of. The greens ought to be fast, and that’s the biggest variable, I would think.”

“I thought the new holes were great. The 1st has got a beautiful look to it. It’s reminiscent of the original tee shot and it opens up nice down there to the right, and the green, you can see the entire green. I love being able to see kind of where you’re going. All the new green complexes are very nice. They are not too tricky. They have got a lot of flat spots. They have got some movement in them but they have got flat spots where you like to put the pins and there’s plenty of room. Just I thought it looked really good. It’s going to be fun playing with all Bermuda. It will be a completely different test.”

Rory McIlroy: “The changes are good. It definitely makes the start of the golf course more challenging. The first hole, now instead of it being 3 wood and a wedge, it’s a driver and a good mid iron. I think you won’t really see guys getting off to the hot starts that they used to. You see guys maybe, especially those first six holes, you’d see guys 3 or 4 under par. I don’t think that’s going to happen now. And then the rest of the golf course is pretty much the same. Obviously they have lengthened 11 a little bit. But what they have done on 16, 17 and 18 over the years has stayed pretty much the same. I like the changes. I mean, I obviously like the golf course the way it was before. My record around there is pretty good. I fancy my chances around there. But it’s always been, I guess, a modern player’s golf course. You’ve got to, if you can drive it a long way, there’s an advantage there, especially coming in with the driveable par-4, 14th and in; the par-5 15 and the long holes coming in. So yeah, I think people will really enjoy it this year. It’s a great venue for a tournament and it will be a great venue for a Major, as well.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Wells Fargo Championship here at Quail Hollow since 2010:

• 2021 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 73rd, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2019 – Max Homa: Round 1: 17th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2018 – Jason Day: Round 1: 17th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.

• 2016 – James Hahn: Round 1: 17th, Round 2: 13th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2015 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 30th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2014 – J.B. Holmes: Round 1: 16th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2013 – Derek Ernst: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2012 – Rickie Fowler: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 13th, Round 3: 6th.
• 2011 – Lucas Glover: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2010 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 44th, Round 2: 48th; Round 3: 7th.

Shots Off the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of the Wells Fargo Championship winners here at Quail Hollow since 2010:

• 2021 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 8 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2019 – Max Homa: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: level.
• 2018 – Jason Day: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
• 2016 – James Hahn: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2015 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 4 ahead.
• 2014 – J.B. Holmes: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2013 – Derek Ernst: Round 1: Level, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2012 – Rickie Fowler: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2011 – Lucas Glover: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2010 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 9 back, Round 3: 4 back.

Form of Wells Fargo Championship winners since 2010:

• Max Homa: 48th Augusta/35th World MP/13th TPC Sawgrass/17th Bay Hill.
• Rory McIlroy: MC Augusta/28th World MP/MC TPC Sawgrass/10th Bay Hill.
• Max Homa: MC New Orleans/42nd San Antonio/52nd Corales/MC Copperhead.
• Jason Day: 34th New Orleans/20th Augusta/36th World MP/22nd Bay Hill.

• Brian Harman: 14th New Orleans /9th Heritage/MC Houston/13th Bay Hill.
• James Hahn: MC New Orleans/MC San Antonio/MC Heritage/MC Houston.
• Rory McIlroy: 8th Sawgrass/1st World MP/4th Augusta/11th Bay Hill.
• B. Holmes: 11th New Orleans/18th Heritage/12th Houston/64th San Antonio.
• Derek Ernst: 47th New Orleans/MC San Antonio/MC Louisiana Open/MC Puerto.
• Rickie Fowler: 10th New Orleans/MC Heritage/27th Masters/63rd Houston.
• Lucas Glover: MC Heritage/MC Augusta/MC Houston/20th Copperhead.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2018. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2021 – Mickelson PM -7/66 – 125/1.
• 2019 – Dahmen/Straka Both AM -5/66 – 100/1 & 250/1.
• 2018 – Peterson – PM -6/65 – 250/1.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 8 – Rory McIlroy.
• 6 – Justin Thomas.
• 5 – Jordan Spieth.
• 4 – Sam Burns, Jason Day, Zach Johnson, Si Woo Kim.
• 3 – Chris Kirk, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Palmer, Xander Schauffele.
• 2 – Patrick Cantlay, Jason Dufner, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Mackenzie Hughes, Scott Piercy, Adam Scott, Webb Simpson, Robert Streb, Jimmy Walker.
• 1 – Ryan Armour, Keegan Bradley, Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Corey Conners, Tyler Duncan, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, James Hahn, Nick Hardy, Tyrrell Hatton, Jim Herman, Garrick Higgo, J.B. Holmes, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Patton Kizzire, Martin Laird, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Keith Mitchell, Francesco Molinari, Taylor Moore, Collin Morikawa, C.T. Pan, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, Rory Sabbatini, J.J. Spaun, Sepp Straka, Kevin Streelman, Adam Svensson, Michael Thompson, Brendon Todd, Nick Watney, Gary Woodland.

Quail Hollow used to reward attacking golf. Birdie or better hole conversion rates across 2010-15 were 35%, 32%, 32%, 25%, 32% and 38% respectively. The outlying 25% number was in 2013 when poor green conditions combined with plenty of wind turned the tournament into more of a grind. But the PGA of America demanded that the course be toughened for the 2017 PGA Championship, so Tom Fazio set to stiffening the test and undoubtedly his work has been successful.

Jason Day’s triumph in 2018 came with a birdie or better hole conversion rate of 25%. Max Homa’s shock 500/1 2019 victory came with a 28% birdie or better conversion (20 birdies) and Rory McIlroy won this in 2021 again with a pretty measly 24% birdie or better conversion (17 birdies) rate. These rates compare pretty much on a par with Augusta National.

So Quail Hollow is undoubtedly a Major Championship difficult venue, on the basis we are dealing with a very long golf course, with only 12 looks at par-5s. With a full SubAir system available as well, tournament organisers can make conditions as firm as they want.

We should see a stretching enough, mid-score (circa -13/-15) kind of test which will be all about making plenty of birdies on the shorter par-4s and the par-5s as bogeys really are unavoidable elsewhere. For me it’s all about powerful, high approach shot golf at the end of the day, similar to the skill sets required at Augusta. Hardly surprising therefore to see the amazing tournament records of Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson, plus other strong classical golf course players like Jason Day, Rickie Fowler and J.B. Holmes topping leaderboards.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:35BST 1.5.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.