Congratulations if you were on Rory McIlroy at Monday opening prices up to 12/1. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but being able to back Rory at 12/1 as opposed to Collin Morikawa (1 PGA Tour victory in his last 76 starts) at 14/1 or Justin Thomas (winless in his last 51 appearances) at 14/1, was real value. McIlroy’s victory was his 27th on the PGA Tour, his 2nd Signature event, and his 2nd in California.
From the majesty of PebbleBeach we travel back to the desert for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Expect dome-like playing conditions and over 700,000 fans at TPC Scottsdale with the amazing par-3 16th Stadium hole. One thing you always get though at the Waste Management Phoenix Open is a close finish and of late a high-class winner at altitude on Super Bowl weekend.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the Waste Management Phoenix Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: Since 2015, the PGA Tour professionals in the main have welcomed the Tom Weiskopf-inspired changes to the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale. 2014 had seen the course closed to undergo a major re-design which included new irrigation, re-surfacing of greens including new green locations at No. 2, No. 3, No. 4 and No. 14, bunker construction and tee construction. In all, 114 yards was added to the course across 11 holes, extending the layout to a 7,261 yard, Par 71 test.
Set at approximately 1,250 feet above sea level, players face a different challenge this week as the golf ball will travel further than they’ve experienced across Hawaii and especially California to date. Talking of challenges, players also need to embrace the atmosphere on the Stadium Course with over 700,000 spectators making this the most attended golf tournament on the planet.
Stadium Course, TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Arizona: Designer: Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish 1995, with Weiskopf re-design 2014; Course Type: Desert, Mid-Score, Altitude, Short; Par: 71; Length: 7,261 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 6; Number of Bunkers: 67; Acres of Fairway: 28; Fairways: Bermudagrass with Perennial Rye and Fine fescue; Rough: Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Rye and Fine Fescue 2″; Greens: 7,069 sq.ft average featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis and Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 12ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2024: 69.90 (-1.10), Rank 25 of 51 courses
2023: 70.98 (-0.02), Rank 17 of 49 courses
2022: 70.29 (-0.71), Rank 26 of 50 courses
2021: 69.46 (-1.54), Rank of 42 of 51 courses
2020: 70.32 (-0.64), Rank 18 of 41 courses
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Tom Weiskopf designs include (including re-designs):
Black Desert Resort – Black Desert Championship
North Course, Torrey Pines 2017-2025 Farmers Insurance Open
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Scottsdale and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
El Cardonal: Average 60 yards up to 70 yards wide.
TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
Black Desert: Average 30 yards up to 70-100 yards wide.
Course Overview: Scoring at the Stadium Course tends to be around the -15/269 to -18/266 mark, unless course conditions are soft like they were in 2024 when Nick Taylor won at -21 and when Phil Mickelson won at an eye-watering -28/263. The renovated course features an additional 114 yards of length, with fresh green surfaces featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis. These green complexes have now been in place for just over 10 years so shouldn’t offer up too many surprises. They run pretty quick, unless rain comes and softens the course.
Undoubtedly the Weiskopf-inspired Stadium Course is a tougher proposition than the previous set-up. Whilst greens aren’t that difficult to hit for the very best ball-strikers, interestingly getting the ball close to the hole is the real difficulty of the course. Proximity to Hole rankings of 2nd to 10th in terms of difficulty rank on the PGA Tour since the Weiskopf work highlight the fact that putters find it very difficult to be able to make the difference with their short game.
The course is scoreable, but when it’s played as it was intended in terms of fairway/green speeds, this tournament never features scoring like we see at PGA West for the reasons listed above. Throw in the fact that scrambling is relatively easy here and it’s clear that ball-strikers, who can consistently hit greens, have a real advantage in the thinner air, especially when they can attack a set of par-5s which read 558, 558 and 553 yards on the scorecard, at altitude.
Waste Management Phoenix Open Winners: 2024: Nick Taylor (-21); 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19); 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16); 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19); 2020: Webb Simpson (-17); 2019: Rickie Fowler (-17); 2018: Gary Woodland (-18); 2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17); 2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14); 2015: Brooks Koepka (-15); 2014: Kevin Stadler (-16); 2013: Phil Mickelson (-23); 2012: Kyle Stanley (-15); 2011: Mark Wilson (-18); 2010: Hunter Mahan (-16).
2024: Nick Taylor 60-70-68-65 -21/263
2023: Scottie Scheffler 68-64-68-65 -19/265
2022: Scottie Scheffler 68-71-62-67 -16/268
2021: Brooks Koepka 68-66-66-65 -19/265
2020: Webb Simpson 71-63-64-69 -17/267
2019: Rickie Fowler 64-65-64-74 -17/267
OWGR of Waste Management Phoenix Open Winners: 2024: N Taylor 55; 2023: Scheffler 2; 2022: Scheffler 15; 2021: Koepka 13; 2020: Simpson 11; 2019: Fowler 14; 2018: Woodland 53; 2017: Matsuyama 5.
Shots From the Lead: Below are Waste Management Phoenix Open winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament since 2010:
Incoming Form of Waste Management Phoenix Open winners since 2010:
Nick Taylor: 71st Pebble/MC PGA West/7th Waialae/52nd Kapalua.
Scottie Scheffler: 11th PGA West/7th Kapalua /2nd World Challenge/9th Houston.
Scottie Scheffler: 20th Torrey/25th PGA West/2nd World Challenge/57th RSM Classic.
Brooks Koepka: MC Torrey/MC PGA West/MC Mayakoba/7th Augusta.
Webb Simpson: 3rd Waialae/10th World Challenge/2nd RSM Classic/7th Shriners.
Rickie Fowler: 66th Torrey/5th World Challenge/16th Mayakoba/4th Shriners.
Gary Woodland: 12th Torrey/7th Waialae/3rd Shark Shootout/34th OHL Classic.
Hideki Matsuyama: 33rd Torrey/27th Waialae/2nd Kapalua/1st World Challenge.
Hideki Matsuyama: MC Torrey/17th World Challenge/2nd Dunlop Phoenix/WD HSBC.
Brooks Koepka: 19th Nedbank/42nd DP World Tour/1st Turkey/48th BMW Masters.
Kevin Stadler: 78th PGA West/12th OHL Classic/10th McGladrey/19th CIMB.
Phil Mickelson: 51st Torrey/37th PGA West/13th Singapore/2nd Mission Hills.
Kyle Stanley: 2nd Torrey/MC PGA West/23rd Waialae/11th Aus Open.
Mark Wilson: MC PGA West/1st Waialae/6th Disney/22nd Shriners.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Scottie Scheffler, 2) Justin Thomas, 3) Hideki Matsuyama, 4) Sam Burns, 5) Nick Taylor, 6) Keith Mitchell, 7) Tom Hoge, 8) Sahith Theegala, 9) Sungjae Im, 10) J.J. Spaun.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
2024: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with afternoon showers. High of 54. Wind WSW 8-14 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Play was suspended due to unplayable course conditions (delay of 3 hours, 30 minutes). Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 56. Wind variable 4-8 mph. Start delayed (delay of 1 hour, 43 minutes). The first round was completed at 1:50 p.m. Saturday: Partly sunny following morning showers. High of 56. Wind variable 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 60. Wind W 5-10 mph.”
2023: Thursday: Sunny. High of 70. Wind NE 10-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. The start of play was delayed due to frost for one hour and 50 minutes. Play was suspended due to darkness at 6:07 p.m., with the entire afternoon wave yet to complete their round. Friday: High of 55. Wind NE 12-22 mph. Play was suspended due to darkness at 6:07 p.m., with the entire afternoon wave yet to complete their round. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 64. Wind E 10-20 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 76. Wind ESE 8-15 mph.
2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 80. Wind SW 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 79. Wind SW 4-8 mph. Saturday: Sunny with a high of 82. Wind NE 10-20 mph. Sunday: Sunny with a high of 80. Wind SW 4-8 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 70. Wind W 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 70. Wind W 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny with a high of 72. Wind W 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny with a high of 73. Wind SW 4-8 mph.
2020: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 73. Wind S 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 72. Wind W 3-6 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind S 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind S 6-12 mph.
2019: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 73. Wind S 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 71. Wind S 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 67. Wind S 6-12 mph. Sunday: Cloudy with light rain. High of 63. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
2018: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind SW 4-8 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind SW 4-8 mph.
2017: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 67. Wind NW 7-12 mph. Friday: Round one resumed at 8 a.m. and concluded at 8:28 a.m. Sunny, with a high in the low-70s. Wind NW 8-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 74. Wind light and variable 5-7 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind SW 4-8 mph.
2016: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 67 degrees. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 64 degrees. Wind NE 5-10 mph Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 77 degrees. Wind SW 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 78 degrees. Wind SW 4-8 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Scottsdale, Arizona is here.
2025 looks like a return to typical Phoenix Open conditions. Little rain in the area will see plenty of roll on the fairways and historically greens have been allowed to release here, especially over the weekend. We should also see warmer temperatures than we have in recent years at around 20-23 degrees Celsius – 68-73 Fahrenheit. With light breezes throughout, I’d expect high-teens to be the winning total required for victory.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Bermuda Championship / DP World Tour Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded, plus the Hero World Challenge. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Charley Hoffman; 2) Luke Clanton; 3) Nicolai Hojgaard; 4) Robert MacIntyre; 5) Corey Conners / Scottie Scheffler; 7) Sungjae Im; 8) Byeong Hun An / Matt Fitzpatrick / Davis Thompson; 11) Bud Cauley; 12) Thomas Detry / Rasmus Hojgaard / Si Woo Kim; 15) Kevin Kisner; 16) Sepp Straka; 17) Cameron Young; 18) Austin Eckroat / Kurt Kitayama; 20) Max Homa; 21) Min Woo Lee; 22) Beau Hossler; 23) Keith Mitchell / Matthieu Pavon; 25) Chris Gotterup / Justin Thomas.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Nick Taylor; 3) Tom Hoge / Rasmus Hojgaard / Hayden Springer; 6) Sepp Straka; 7) Justin Thomas; 8) Chan Kim / David Lipsky; 10) Victor Perez / Paul Waring; 12) Akshay Bhatia; 13) Tom Kim / Hideki Matsuyama / Maverick McNealy; 16) Nick Dunlap / Ryan Fox; 18) Min Woo Lee; 19) Robert MacIntyre / Mac Meissner; 21) Corey Conners / Billy Horschel / Sam Stevens; 24) Charley Hoffman; 25) Patrick Rodgers.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Byeong Hun An; 2) Ryan Fox; 3) Justin Thomas; 4) Robert MacIntyre; 5) Sam Burns / C.T. Pan; 7) Bud Cauley / Cameron Young; 9) Max Homa; 10) Andrew Novak; 11) Davis Thompson; 12) Harry Hall; 13) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Beau Hossler; 15) Hideki Matsuyama; 16) Rasmus Hojgaard; 17) Adam Hadwin; 18) Nick Dunlap / Patton Kizzire / Scottie Scheffler / Alex Smalley; 22) Corey Conners / Matt Fitzpatrick; 24) Will Gordon / Mackenzie Hughes / Sungjae Im.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Ryan Fox; 3) Charley Hoffman; 4) Rasmus Hojgaard; 5) Robert MacIntyre; 6) Bud Cauley; 7) Sepp Straka; 8) Justin Thomas; 9) Byeong Hun An; 10) Nick Taylor; 11) Corey Conners / Hideki Matsuyama / Hayden Springer; 14) Tom Hoge; 15) Tom Kim; 16) Viktor Perez / J.T. Poston / Alex Smalley; 19) Maverick McNealy; 20) Matt Fitzpatrick; 21) Min Woo Lee; 22) Patton Kizzire / Sam Stevens; 24) Lucas Glover; 25) Daniel Berger / Akshay Bhatia / Max Greyserman / Patrick Rodgers.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Brandt Snedeker; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Akshay Bhatia; 4) Sam Burns / C.T. Pan; 6) Harry Hall; 7) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 8) Nick Dunlap / Min Woo Lee / Matthieu Pavon; 11) Sungjae Im / Adam Schenk; 13) Justin Thomas; 14) Nicolas Echavarria; 15) Sepp Straka / Nick Taylor; 17) Matt Fitzpatrick; 18) Tom Hoge / Sahith Theegala; 20) Lucas Glover; 21) Thomas Detry / Lee Hodges; 23) Hideki Matsuyama; 24) Brendon Todd; 25) Emiliano Grillo / Denny McCarthy.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Sepp Straka; 3) Rasmus Hojgaard; 4) Sam Burns; 5) Ryan Fox / Min Woo Lee; 7) Justin Thomas; 8) C.T. Pan; 9) Robert MacIntyre; 10) Akshay Bhatia; 11) Harry Hall / Tom Hoge / Hideki Matsuyama; 14) Hayden Springer; 15) Lee Hodges / Maverick McNealy; 17) Sungjae Im / Adam Schenk; 19) Charley Hoffman; 20) Thomas Detry / Beau Hossler; 22) Bud Cauley; 23) Nick Dunlap / J.T. Poston; 25) Matt Fitzpatrick / Vincent Norrman.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Waste Management Phoenix Open winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this short, desert, Par 71:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2024, Nick Taylor (-21). SG Off the Tee: 42nd, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 14th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 1st.
2023, Scottie Scheffler (-19). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 19th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 13th.
2022, Scottie Scheffler (-16). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 55th, SG Around the Green: 8th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 2nd.
2021, Brooks Koepka (-19). SG Off the Tee: 11th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 32nd, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 18th.
2020, Webb Simpson (-17). SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 11th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 12th.
2019, Rickie Fowler (-17). SG Off the Tee: 3rd, SG Approach: 17th, SG Around the Green: 68th, SG Tee to Green: 19th, SG Putting: 1st.
2018, Gary Woodland (-18). SG Off the Tee: 12th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 32nd, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 16th.
2017, Hideki Matsuyama (-17). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 29th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 47th.
2016, Hideki Matsuyama (-14). SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 29th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 14th, SG Approach: 10th, SG Around the Green: 25th, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 15th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here post course re-design in 2014 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2024, Nick Taylor (-21). 294 yards (36th), 64.3% fairways (20th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 39’11” proximity to hole (43rd), 92.3% scrambling (1st), 1.66 putts per GIR (2nd).
2023, Scottie Scheffler (-19). 317 yards (26th), 53.6% fairways (45th), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 39’2″ proximity to hole (12th), 87.5% scrambling (1st), 1.71 putts per GIR (13th).
2022, Scottie Scheffler (-16). 328 yards (8th), 62.5% fairways (18th), 77.8% greens in regulation (11th), 37’10” proximity to hole (31st), 50.0 % scrambling (53rd), 1.66 putts per GIR (1st).
2021, Brooks Koepka (-19). 321 yards (6th), 62.5% fairways (27th), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 33’2″ proximity to hole (5th), 50.0 % scrambling (50th), 1.69 putts per GIR (10th).
2020, Webb Simpson (-17). 307 yards (44th), 71.4% fairways (3rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (6th), 35’4″ proximity to hole (7th), 68.8 % scrambling (14th), 1.66 putts per GIR (5th).
2019, Rickie Fowler (-17). 310 yards (11th), 69.6% fairways (3rd), 72.2% greens in regulation (13th), 39’11” proximity to hole (42nd), 75.0 % scrambling (6th), 1.59 putts per GIR (11th).
2018, Gary Woodland (-18). 318 yards (8th), 60.7% fairways (19th), 77.8% greens in regulation (4th), 34’11” proximity to hole (6th), 68.8 % scrambling (25th), 1.71 putts per GIR (10th).
2017, Hideki Matsuyama (-17). 311 yards (20th), 66.1% fairways (6th), 80.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 32’11” proximity to hole (3rd), 71.4 % scrambling (12th), 1.74 putts per GIR (26th).
2016, Hideki Matsuyama (-14). 296 yards (36th), 55.4% fairways (44th), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 35’10” proximity to hole (7th), 68.6 % scrambling (16th), 1.75 putts per GIR (32nd).
2015, Brooks Koepka (-15). 310 yards (3rd), 58.9% fairways (47th), 75.0% greens in regulation (4th), 35’2″ proximity to hole (10th), 83.3 % scrambling (2nd), 1.69 putts per GIR (11th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 20th, Driving Accuracy: 23rd, Greens in Regulation: 5th, Proximity to Hole: 17th, Scrambling: 18th, Putting Average 12th.
So let’s take a view from players as to how the TPC Scottsdale set-up plus what skill sets they favour:
Nick Taylor (2024): “Yeah, a lot of times I’ll buzz out and play some holes on the front nine, but full 18 holes, I will play four or five a year probably outside of the tournament. But I definitely get on the course quite a bit and practice out here, so I’m comfortable with a lot of the lines, which is nice.
Yeah, I made a bit of a shift a couple years ago, just kind of seeing the lines a little bit better on these greens. I’ve always felt comfortable tee to green here. But the last couple years I’ve been able to see the lines a little bit better and put a little more work on there. That’s been the biggest difference.
Yeah, again, the last I saw, Charley was at 21, so I knew in the back of my mind I needed to make at least two birdies. The number and the wind was perfect for what I needed to hit. It was a 9-iron. I started it at the 16 in the background and drew it in, and it worked out perfect. It was funny how our whole group almost fed off each other. Kind of bad early in the round, and then when we started making putts we kind of could see it and did that end. Sahith made a putt there and got the crowd going, but I also saw the ball going in, which was nice. 17, that back pin, again, I would have loved to have been aggressive on that pitch, but I felt like I’ve seen it too many times in the past if you try to force it there you can run it off into the water and didn’t want to spoil my chances there. The birdie on 16 was huge to give me a little buffer the last couple holes.
Why didn’t I go for the green on 15? You know, our rule of thumb is honestly if I don’t have a 5-iron, 4-iron going in, I’ve always laid up the last handful of years. Even this morning, the only reason I went for it, it was a back pin, which is super tricky with the soft greens to try to hit a wedge close, so I hit a hybrid just short of the green and was able to make Mabel birdie. But it wasn’t even a decision. It probably would have been a 5-wood. My wedge game is a strength of my game. It turned out there; last year I did the same thing, and it didn’t turn out. I was confident in the decision. I just knew that with how receptive the greens were, the wedge shot with the backboard there was very doable, and I thought that was my best percentage play.”
Scottie Scheffler (2023): ” The golf course is in great shape. Greens are always really firm, and you’ve got to deal with the environment here, but it’s something you’ve got to embrace. It’s a lot of fun. I think a few times a year being able to play with this big of a crowd is pretty special for us as players.
Yeah, I’ve never laid up on 17. I think one of the things that’s so great about this golf course is getting the reward for good play. I think you see that a lot on the back nine; when you’re hitting really good shots, you get rewarded for it. You can birdie almost every hole on the back nine when you’re hitting the right shots, and then all of a sudden you start hitting it off line and it becomes difficult. So as a player, I think that’s what you really appreciate about courses, and 17 is a hole like that where if you hit a really good tee shot, you’re going to have an eagle look or have an easy up-and-down for birdie, and if you don’t hit a good tee shot, you’re going to be struggling for par.
I think around this place when you’re hitting fairways and you’re hitting it well the golf course can kind of open up for you. But the opposite can happen in a hurry because there’s trouble lurking on basically every hole. With there being desert close by. There’s a lot of holes with water as well. When you’re hitting it well you have to take advantage of it like I did today. Hopefully I’ll keep putting the ball in position as the week goes on.”
Scottie Scheffler (2022): “I mean with the way the wind was blowing it was a good wind for me on the first four holes with it being kind of off the right. But then you turn and you’re playing 14 through 17, with it in off the left is really awkward win for a righty. And so with how firm and fast the greens are, yeah, it was probably some of the best nine holes that I’ve had, just with, I mean, the way the wind direction was. Some of those holes can be pretty awkward.”
“Honestly in the playoff I would prefer a hole that would go left to right because Patrick likes to draw the ball off the tee and I like to fade it, so I would have liked for it to have been a different hole. But obviously I performed well in the playoff, so I’m still pleased with that one “
Brooks Koepka (2021): “I need the mojo. I need the energy. You make a birdie, all right, there is a little bit of excitement. You know, bogey, there is a little bit of embarrassment. All right, let’s correct it real quick. It hasn’t been that way. It’s been very flat and ho-hum.”
“I always thought I had a chance. I felt like the front nine I was just hanging in there. I think 2 kind of woke me up a little bit on 3 three, helped me there. I think on 12, Ricky said something to me about, We’re right there. We just need a little bit of momentum or a putt to go our way. Never know what’s going to happen. I thought if I got a good tee shot away on 13 I thought I was going to have a chance. Hit a great shot in there and just left the putt short. I think that tee box got me going. I saw where everybody was. There was a leaderboard. I didn’t really pay attention from when I left 9 until I got to the green on 12. I thought the lead was just going to keep going. I didn’t realize, James (Hahn) had I think a two-shot lead at that point over everybody else. I just figured if I could get somewhat close to James I might have a chance, you know, being par-5s, being able to hit it far. 17 was a good chance. I mean, I don’t know, I thrive on 16. Just the atmosphere. I love that, so I liked my chances even though I was well back. I never felt out of it.”
Webb Simpson (2020): “The golf course has gotten more firm every day, so it’s going to be challenging tomorrow, but guys I think are still looking at it as plenty of birdie opportunities. This course is playing shorter so we’re having shorter clubs in, even though the greens are more firm. But, yeah, I mean I didn’t think today teeing it up that I was going to go try to shoot 6- or 7-under. As boring as it sounds, all I really focus on is the first shot and you try to attack when you can attack and then the tougher holes you try to make par. And then you get hot for two days like I have and shoot 15-under and give myself a chance and we’ll see what happens tomorrow.
I compartmentalize everything. So if I got a sand wedge in my hand I’m going to be going right at it. If I got an 8-iron or 7-iron a little more conservative. If I need to adjust on the last few holes, I will, but the last two days I let the birdies come to me and it’s hard in this game when you try to force it. But there’s plenty of birdie holes, like I said, so if I keep playing solid there’s great opportunities for tomorrow..”
Rickie Fowler (2019): “I enjoyed it. I think the start getting off 10 and 11, hitting two good 3-woods in play, just nice solid ball flights, started where I wanted to, fell a little right. So it was great to get off to kind of a positive start. Obviously then was able to birdie 12, eagle 13. But I think 10 and 11’s tough to start on early in the morning, so it was nice to get that out of the way, you kind of get off heading the right direction and really just tried to play within myself, not try to do anything special, still working on some stuff on the swing and the last few weeks and trying not to focus too much of that on the golf course, just go play and still getting used to the golf ball as well. So I’m happy with where we’re at and where we’re heading.”
On 18 today I was trying to stay, I was actually trying to stay right of it, just with where the pin was and I toed it really bad. Yeah, I would say the, you know, last year it was out of play, but maybe not by much. Now it’s, I mean the water is completely out of play, I don’t have to think about that, but — I can’t go on Cameron Champ’s line, but I can get kind of the right half of the bunker. Yesterday was a good one, I think it maybe flew around 325 or 330. And the ball does go further here, but I’m happy about that with — I’m not very big, so, yeah, I would say right now not necessarily here because like I said the ball goes further, it used to be where the bunker at 290 if I hit one good I didn’t have to worry about, now I don’t have to worry about carrying it at 300.”
Gary Woodland (2018): “I put a lot of work in this off season. I mean obviously I knew what has been going on in the last couple years, short game, needed some adjustment, I spent some time with Pete Cowen. Pete really got me to where I have confidence in my short game and that allowed me to be more aggressive and let Butch and I do what we do. And play aggressive off the tee, play aggressive with the irons and attack from there. It’s been a big difference”
Jordan Spieth: “Yeah, I’ll play the 17th aggressively. I’ll try and knock it on the green. If I get out of position, you can always make par unless you hit it obviously in the water. You can still make par from there. They get that pin way in the back in that little sliver, and I’ll probably still try and hit driver up the green. If it goes offline and I can’t get next to the hole, then you hit it to about 20 feet and two-putt and don’t do anything more. I saw quite a few shots in my experience last time, including my own, and I think I made par to that hole by playing conservatively, and that’s fine. I think if you play the hole 2-under for the week, you’ve done a good job. So it will be a good test this week. These greens are very pure. If you’re putting well, you can really putt well out here. It’s not Poa annua.”
Hideki Matsuyama: “Before the re-design or the changes, I thought it was an easier course than it is now. I mean, the 2nd hole and the 14th hole have really put some bite into this course, and those are two difficult holes right now where before they weren’t that difficult.”
Brooks Koepka: “15, 16, 17 is just I think an unbelievable finish. There is so much risk reward, like you said. And if you hit a couple of quality golf shots, you can really make a move, whereas, you know, the opposite, you hit one bad one, and you can run up a number pretty quick. Luckily I was able to pull some shots off.”
Phil Mickelson: “I think, for the most part, they’re very well done. The first year you always have to cut some slack because the greens are firm and unreceptive because the roots haven’t had a chance to grow in. You want to cut it some slack the first year. But I think it looks really good. Surprisingly, the greens are putting very true and in wonderful shape. I was pleasantly surprised. In terms of new bunkering, I thought it was strategic and well-placed in a lot of holes. I have always liked Weiskopf’s stuff. He has great strategy from a player’s standpoint. Really not too much was done differently other than three or four holes; otherwise, very similar throughout.”
Bubba Watson: “It’s just a different mindset, I mean, when you’re adding length to a golf course you still have to hit driver. But it’s funny to me how they add length and then shorten the landing zone. They make it skinnier. They don’t want you to hit it any farther but they want to stretch the course out. It’s funny to me. It makes this golf course a lot different and tougher. Today I hit my driver nicely. I think I missed two fairways, which is pretty good for me. G30 worked out today. But, yeah, for me today it was about the driver. Around this golf course my driver stays in play. My irons are pretty decent. So now it’s a driving golf course. There are a couple things they could tweak here and there. It’s about 85 to 80% perfect the way they changed it, but there are a couple of little things. Nothing major, though. It doesn’t change the outcome of the score if you changed them, but just the way it looks.”
Ryan Palmer: “In the past it’s been better for me, I think, because there is a lot of shots that, a lot of draw ball tee shots. A lot of greens set up for me, as well, depending on where the pin is obviously. I was able to kind of attack the golf course with the length I have. From what it is now to what it used to be, it’s definitely longer, for sure. I used to hit a lot of wedges, sand wedges, and we are not doing that anymore. But I like what they did from tee to green. They did a lot of good things. There are a few greens that I’m sure if you ask a lot of players they weren’t very pleased about, but overall I think they did a really good job with it. It’s in perfect shape, for sure. Greens are rolling pretty pure, of course with the bounces they are getting. Overall I think they did a good job.”
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
9 – Scottie Scheffler.
6 – Justin Thomas.
5 – Jordan Spieth.
4 – Sam Burns, Billy Horschel, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Ryan Palmer, Camilo Villegas.
3 – Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Hideki Matsuyama, Brandt Snedeker, Nick Taylor.
2 – Daniel Berger, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Mackenzie Hughes, Peter Malnati, Webb Simpson, Sepp Straka.
1 – Akshay Bhatia, Rafael Campos, Wyndham Clark, Corey Conners, Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Matt Fitzpatrick, Chris Gotterup, Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, Nick Hardy, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Patton Kizzire, Luke List, Maverick McNealy, Keith Mitchell, Taylor Moore, C.T. Pan, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, J.J. Spaun, Kevin Streelman, Adam Svensson, Brendon Todd, Jhonattan Vegas, Gary Woodland, Kevin Yu.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of altitude golf courses on the PGA Tour since 2020, with players in the field this week.
2020:
TPC Scottsdale: Winner: Webb Simpson; EW Places: Thomas, Lashley, Homa.
Chapultepec: Winner: Patrick Reed; EW Places: van Rooyen, Matsuyama, Thomas.
Old Greenwood: Winner: Richy Werenski; EW Places: McNealy.
TPC Summerlin: Winner Martin Laird; EW Places: Malnati, Si Woo Kim.
Shadow Creek: Winner Jason Kokrak; EW Places: Lanto Griffin.
Old Greenwood: Winner: Chez Reavie; EW Places: Hubbard.
TPC Summerlin: Winner: Tom Kim; EW Places: Hoge, Im, Si Woo Kim.
2023:
TPC Scottsdale: Winner: Scottie Scheffler; EW Places: Nick Taylor, Thomas, Burns, Im, Spieth.
Old Greenwood: Winner: Akshay Bhatia; EW Places: Rodgers, Hossler, van Rooyen.
TPC Summerlin: Winner: Tom Kim; EW Places: Hadwin, Cole, Poston, Dahmen, Hossler, K.H. Lee.
2024:
TPC Scottsdale: Winner: Nick Taylor; EW Places: Hoffman, Burns, Scheffler, Theegala, McNealy, Spieth, Kitayama, Novak, Cameron Young.
Old Greenwood: Winner: Nick Dunlap; EW Places: Whaley, Fishburn, Meissner, Rodgers, Kizzire, Hoey, Hoffman.
Black Desert: Winner: Matt McCarthy; EW Places: Glover, Streelman, Schmid, Highsmith, Hardy, Hodges, Norlander.
TPC Summerlin: Winner: J.T. Poston; EW Places: Ghim, Hoey, Schmid, Michael Kim, K.H. Lee, Davis Thompson.
So what’s the recipe for success this week? Well key player attributes rewarded here undoubtedly include driving distance (Simpson and Taylor showed it’s not 100% essential), high-class ball-striking and an aggressive Going for the Green percentage. Players who can hit the ball consistently well thrive on Weiskopf’s design which features relatively large and flat green complexes. The re-laid greens themselves are quite tricky as they feature a TifEagle Bermudagrass base which has been overseeded with Poa Trivialis. All winners here since 2010 have featured in the top 13 for Greens in Regulation and I can’t see that changing in 2025.
For course form buffs course, experience is not essential here as both Kyle Stanley and Brooks Koepka won on their course debut – however in the main most winners here have a previous top 10 prior to victory.
Looking at the incoming form of recent winners, let’s talk defending champion Nick Taylor. He’d finished 7th at Waialae prior to taking this out, but post-Sony Open his form read MC-71 putting many off. 13th at the Shriners Open in the autumn of 2023 highlighted a liking for desert golf at altitude and Nick had finished runner-up 12 months earlier to Scottie Scheffler here at TPC Scottsdale.
Scottie Scheffler in 2023 finished 7th at Kapalua and 11th at PGA West prior to defending here in Arizona. He has also finished 2nd at Albany (Hero World Challenge) in December and 3rd at Mayakoba (WWT Championship).
The Texan also had decent enough form on his 2022 outings finishing 20th at Torrey Pines and 25th at PGA West prior to taking his maiden PGA Tour title here. Autumn form though had seen him a level above that, finishing 2nd at Albany (Hero World Challenge), 2nd at Memorial Park (Houston Open) and 4th at El Camaleon (WWT Championship at Mayakoba). A first PGA Tour win was undoubtedly trending at 30/1.
Brooks Koepka had missed the cut at both of his 2021 outings, namely PGA West and Torrey Pines. His play in the autumn of 2020 has been better though with 7th at Augusta National and 5th at Houston, prior to a missed cut at El Camaleon. His 50/1 price for a 4-time Major champion and previous TPC Scottsdale winner (2015) had plenty of punters backing his ceiling.
Webb Simpson was on fire and went off at 14/1. A PGA Tour form-line of 3rd at Waialae on calendar-debut, 2nd at Sea Island and 7th last time he visited the desert at TPC Summerlin, saw him go off as the 3rd favourite in the betting. Rickie Fowler in 2019 had played once in the year, prior to arriving in Scottsdale, finishing 66th at Torrey Pines the week before. 2018 had ended with a 5th at Tiger’s Hero World Challenge and 4th at TPC Summerlin.
Gary Woodland in 2018 had gone backwards when contending at Torrey Pines the week before. However an eventual 12th at Torrey was preceded by 7th at Waialae. Hideki Matsuyama in 2017 had finished 33rd at Torrey Pines and 27th at Waialae prior to arriving in Arizona, allowing his odds to grow to 11/1. Prior to that 4 wins and 2 runner-up positions including season-opener Kapalua had made him the hottest player on the planet. 2016 had seen him miss the cut at Torrey Pines on his 2016 debut, but 2nd at the Dunlop Phoenix in Japan and 5th at the CIMB Classic in Kuala Lumpur at the latter end of 2015 had shown promise in low-scoring events.
Brooks Koepka had started the 2014/15 PGA Tour season strongly with 8th at Silverado and 4th at TPC Summerlin followed by his first main Tour career victory at the star-studded Turkish Airlines Open on the European Tour. This was his calendar debut. In 2014, ‘Baby Walrus’ Kevin Stadler had shaken the rust off at PGA West (78th) after a strong close to 2013 which included 4th at TPC Boston, 19th at Kuala Lumpur, 10th at Sea Island and 12th at El Camaleon.
Tom Kim has sparked into life across the last few months, but in a quiet kind of way.
A return home to South Korea in October saw Tom finish runner-up to Byeong Hun An at the co-sanctioned DP World Tour Genesis Championship. 2nd in December at the Hero World Challenge at Albany behind Scottie Scheffler saw Kim rank 3rd for Strokes Gained Tee to Green, which was then followed by another runner-up spot at the Grant Thornton Invitational in mid-December when partnered with Jeeno Thitikul.
2025 has been quieter with 65th at the Sony Open hiding the fact that Tom was 11th after 36 holes before the wind deflated his challenge.
However last week at Pebble Beach highlighted that the World Number 23 is getting back to his best and for me will be an option at ongoing Open Championships where scoring is possible. Mid rounds of 65-68 saw the Dallas domiciled South Korean into 4th spot heading into Sunday, and a closing 70 in the second from last group saw Kim bag his first top 10 of 2025, which could have been a top 3 without a bogey on the last. 9th for Strokes Tee to Green at the AT&T, fascinatingly Tom also ranked 9th for Strokes Gained Putting which can undoubtedly be his weakness.
It’s worth remembering that Kim has already won 3 times on the PGA Tour. His phenomenal victories at the 2022 Wyndham Championship and 2022 & 2023 Shriners Open highlight the South Korean’s amazing ability to win on Bermudagrass (the Wyndham) and on short desert course formats (the Shriners). You can also see that here 12 months ago, where off of 2024 incoming form of 45-MC-31, Tom shot a -13/200 closing 54-hole total ranking T5 in the field – highlighting that he’d got his ahead around the TPC Scottsdale format when ultimately finishing T17.
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Maverick McNealy 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
I’ll keep backing Maverick McNealy who like last week I think will be well suited to TPC Scottsdale.
7th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green in elite company at Pebble Beach last week, the putter was stone cold. Total Driving was also good at Pebble Beach and the Ball Striking in general has carried over from the end of 2024 where Maverick landed his first PGA Tour victory at the RSM Classic.
A perennially good West Coast performer, McNealy was 6th here 12 months ago ranking 5th for Stokes Gained Tee to Green, shooting 65-67-71-67 and being in the hunt all week across this boisterous event. That’s carry over from desert golf course form that although unspectacular highlights a liking for thin air – that makes sense as a Californian, Stanford University product who’s based in Las Vegas. 7th (2020) and 9th (2022) at Old Greenwood, Maverick has also finished 10th (2023) and 16th (2024) at TPC Summerlin across his last 2 appearances in Nevada. He was also 6th at the end of last year at Tiger’s El Cardonal design, played in the Mexican desert in Cabo.
Far better on firmer layouts than the softer Pebble Beach set-up we saw last week in the main, I think Maverick could well be a factor.
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Akshay Bhatia is another who appeals this week. A player who has been on his travels of late finishing 2nd in Japan, 4th in the Bahamas, 3rd in Florida and 37th in Dubai since mid-December, a return to the PGA Tour saw a solid 22nd place finish at Pebble Beach last week, improving on 30th spot when he first played there in 2021.
A winner on similar Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis greens last year at the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio, Akshay thrives on non-Par 70 formats and has won in thin air, altitude-type conditions as well on the PGA Tour at the 2023 Barracuda Championship, played at Old Greenwood.
Within the top 25 for Tee to Green, top 15 for Approach, top 5 for Putting and top 10 for Current Form across my 8-tournament Strokes Gained trackers, I like the look of Akshay this week.
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Charley Hoffman 1pt EW 90/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
The “desert rat” of the week has to be Charley Hoffman.
A runner-up here both in 2009 and 2024, Hoffman has 2 further top-20 and 3 further top-30 finishes here from 18 appearances in Scottsdale – that equates to $2,257,709 of prize money. Broaden the desert performance envelope and you discover 1st (2007), 8th (2008) 10th (2013), 9th (2014), 2nd (2015) and 5th this year at PGA West; 8th (2024) at Old Greenwood; and 5th (2006), 6th (2009) and 4th (2013) at TPC Summerlin. For completeness you can also throw in 9th (2006) at Omni Tucson National Golf Resort, which hosted the Chrysler Classic of Tucson.
I make it over $5,400,000 of prize money earned by Hoffman across PGA Tour desert golf courses and you can also build a case to say that he’s earned a further $4,269,927 at the Valero Texas Open, played on a desert-like golf course at The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio – a course which features similar Bermudagrass Poa Trivialis overseed green complexes.
Plus on a course where Strokes Gained Tee to Green is vital, Charley has ranked 4th (Waialae), 18th (PGA West) and 3rd (Torrey Pines) over his 2025 outings. Take my 8-tournament Strokes Gained tracker, in this field Hoffman ranks 1st for Off the Tee, in the top 25 for Approach and 3rd for Tee to Green, plus top 20 for Strokes Gained Current Form.
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Nick Dunlap in 2024 became the first amateur to win a PGA Tour event since Phil Mickelson won the Tucson Open in 1991. Some accolade! That victory was The American Express title in Californian desert played on Bermuda Poa Trivialis greens, and despite only seeing just over a year of Nick on the PGA Tour you can definitely see that he has an affinity with the West Coast.
We were on-board at 40/1 when he took out the Barracuda Championship at Old Greenwood, another event played at altitude in thin desert air, on a short par 71 last July. 10th at the Sony Open just 4 weeks ago, Dunlap has had further amateur success on the West Coast having won the 2023 U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills Country Club at altitude in Denver, Colorado.
A TPC Scottsdale debutant – he’ll either love or hate the atmosphere – Dunlap was sitting in 20th spot last week at Pebble Beach for the first 26 holes before the wind arrived, and I like the look of him this week as his game currently has a nice balance between Approach and Putting right now – ranking in this field in the top 25 for Current Form, top 20 for Approach and top 10 for Putting across four 2025 tournaments where he has played all 16 rounds.
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2025 Golf Betting System Majors Competition sponsored by bet365
