Rounds of 69 and 68 respectively for Grant Forrest and Ewen Ferguson to close their KLM Open campaigns meant the Scots both sneaked into a tie for 8th to claw some of our stake money back, however it’s a case of what could have been had they started the final day a little closer to the lead.
On to this week and the European Open returned to the schedule in 2015 after a 6-year break, having formed an important part of the European Tour up until 2009; the event’s resurrection saw a new early autumn slot alongside a new home in Germany, having previously been played in the UK and Ireland at such venues as the London Club, The K Club, Sunningdale and Walton Heath to name but a few.
Those historical results from 2009 and before are little more than interesting facts now though with the event having shifted to Germany; a change in scheduling in 2017 as well as a new track also makes the results from 2015 and 2016 less relevant too as we return to the Green Eagle complex on the outskirts of Hamburg for the sixth time for this year’s renewal, with the same early June spot in the schedule as the last two years.
In what’s almost a carbon copy of recent markets on the DP World Tour, Victor Perez leads the field this week at 16/1 from the likes of Rasmus Hojgaard, Jordan Smith, Antoine Rozner and Alexander Bjork in this full field of 156 players.
Get up to 12 places each way at the Porsche European Open with bet365’s ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion on golf.
bet365 have recently launched their innovative ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion on golf, following on from its success on horse racing over the past few years.
bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. Registration required. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.
The number of Each Way Extra places offered on an event can be viewed on the Each Way Extra coupon or on the bet slip as per the example below:
Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 16:00BST 29.5.23, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.
To access the different options and odds, simply select the ‘Each Way Extra’ market from the selected golf coupon to see the additional place terms that are available on your chosen event before the first group tees off. Once you’ve selected a price and the corresponding number of places from the Each Way Extra coupon, it will then appear on your bet slip.
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✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
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Course Overview. Green Eagle Golf Courses is a collection of 42 holes spread across 3 courses in the ‘Lüneburger Heide’, a picturesque part of Germany on the outskirts of Hamburg.
The North Course is being used for this week’s event and the Michael Blesch design is a brute at 7,165 metres (7,836 yards) from its tips for its scorecard par of 73, however with 4 teeing areas on each of the holes there’s considerable flexibility as to how the course can be set up. This week’s layout will reportedly measure 7,457 yards and play to a par of 73, with the 4th hole purportedly playing as a sixth par 5.
As you’d expect with a course of that length, the fairways are reasonably generous and the greens large and undulating so as to give players a chance of compiling some kind of score. Water is in play on all but one of the holes and an element of control is required to avoid paying the penalty for wild tee shots or approaches, however the reward for a safe navigation to the green is excellent quality putting surfaces.
Only 5 holes played under par 12 months ago, led by the closing par 5 which gave up 12 eagles and 174 birdies over the 4 rounds. The par-5 9th, 11th and 15th each played marginally under par, as did the short par 4 7th, however they were undoubtedly the exceptions to the rule.
Event Winners. 2022. Kalle Samooja. 200/1; 2021, Marcus Armitage, 80/1; 2019, Paul Casey 7/1; 2018: Richard McEvoy 125/1; 2017: Jordan Smith 40/1; 2016: Alex Levy 45/1; 2015: Thongchai Jaidee 55/1.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Hamburg is here.
Settled weather is to be expected for the four days of tournament play with temperatures reaching the high-60s Fahrenheit in the afternoons. Light to moderate winds are forecast in general at 10-15mph, although Thursday might see gusts a little stronger than that.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking back to the 5 events held here at Green Eagle, the eventual winners produced key stats as follows:
2022, Kalle Samooja (-6). 296 yards (13th), 61.5% fairways (33rd), 72.2% greens in regulation (2nd), 60.0% Scrambling (22nd), 1.79 putts per GIR (33rd)
2021, Marcus Armitage (-8, 54 holes). 276 yards (41st), 61.5% fairways (34th), 63.0% greens in regulation (38th), 70.0% Scrambling (6th), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
2019, Paul Casey (-14). 293 yards (12th), 69.2% fairways (8th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 46.2% Scrambling (49th), 1.76 putts per GIR (24th)
2018, Richard McEvoy (-11). 276 yards (62nd), 67.3% fairways (6th), 72.2% greens in regulation (8th), 55% Scrambling (8th), 1.67 putts per GIR (8th)
2017, Jordan Smith (-13). 296 yards (3rd), 71.2% fairways (7th), 73.6% greens in regulation (15th), 63.2% Scrambling (7th), 1.74 putts per GIR (16th)
The course played soft in 2017 following a lot of wet weather which effectively lengthened and widened the track, however to compensate the organisers moved a number of tee boxes forward to keep it relatively fair and Jordan Smith, who ranked 3rd for Driving Distance on the week, ultimately prevailed in a play-off against Alex Levy.
In 2018 it was much drier which brought some of the shorter hitters into the equation with no (recorded) player finishing inside the top 5 ranking in the top-50 for Driving Distance, including eventual winner Richard McEvoy who averaged a full 20 yards less off the tee than Smith the year before.
Paul Casey’s win in 2019 came in mixed conditions with temperatures struggling to hit the mid-60s Fahrenheit, and although the average driving distance of the top-5 finishers increased over the years before, it still wasn’t an out-and-out slugfest. We still saw, however, the kind of tee-to-green control that both of our winners here had demonstrated to that point, with each of the top 5 finishers ranking inside the 17 most accurate drivers on the week.
The 2021 win for Marcus Armitage came in dry and firm conditions with the event reduced to a 54-hole Saturday to Monday affair due to Covid. Despite the conditions, eventual winner Marcus Armitage only averaged 276 off the tee and the Englishman prevailed with an excellent performance on and around the greens which contrasts with his normally dependable tee-to-green game.
Last year’s win for Kalle Samooja came at the highest winning score we’ve seen so far at just 6-under through 72 holes. Pre-event rain made the course play extremely long, which combined with a little wind made the test tougher than ever. In the end a final round 64 – which was 3 strokes better than anyone else could muster all week – saw the Finn scythe his way through the field for a maiden DP World Tour title.
Much of the length of this track comes from the par-5s; however that’s not to say that they’re all a pushover. Looking at 2019, Matthias Schwab (2nd) and Niklas Lemke (9th) co-led the field for par-5 scoring at -10; despite there being 20 looks at the par-5s, these were the best scores on display on the week on the long holes. Similarly last year Samooja was just -7 for the par-5s over 4 days so those who rely solely on that part of their game to get in contention may not have it all their own way here, despite the high number of par-5s on the card.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, rarely do we see such symmetry with SG Tee to Green featuring heavily for almost all of the contenders over the past 2 seasons, including the two eventual winners:
In addition to Samooja and Armitage, Richard Armitage and Victor Perez, who tied third last year, ranked 4th and 2nd for SG Tee to Green respectively; similarly Thomas Detry, Edoardo Molinari, Matthew Southgate and Darius van Driel ranked 3rd, 1st, 6th and 11th on the same count the year before.
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: Before the venue switched to Green Eagle GC in 2017, the previous two winners, Thongchai Jaidee and Alex Levy, had both recorded top-7 finishes on their previous start.
With the scheduling for the next 2 years falling immediately after The Open, Jordan Smith hadn’t played at that Major, however prior to that he’d recorded 7 straight cuts made without finishing any better than 20th at the Irish Open, whereas Richard McEvoy had won the week before on the Challenge Tour’s Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge.
This event was played in early September in 2019 and Paul Casey triumphed having produced the 3rd-best 72-hole total at East Lake for the PGA Tour’s finale, whereas the 2021 schedule saw the event in an early June position and Marcus Armitage won having finished 8th on his last start in Denmark the week before.
Kalle Samooja’s victory 12 months ago in the same spot on the calendar to this year came off the back of three straight missed cuts, however he had shown some form earlier in the year, eventually finishing 5th at the Qatar Masters:
2022, Kalle Samooja: 8/MC/12/MC/MC/74/60/5/38/MC/MC/MC
2021, Marcus Armitage: 6/45/61/54/47/MC/10/4/45/MC/MC/8
2019, Paul Casey: 9/MC/4/29/WD/21/5/57/27/13/24/3
2018, Richard McEvoy: MC/65/MC/MC/34/MC/15/MC/26/29/33/1
2017, Jordan Smith: 29/17/8/14/MC/48/40/21/44/30/20/58
2016, Alexander Levy: 2/63/14/4/28/34/WD/56/73/18/34/7
Course Form: In terms of course form, Paul Casey had finished 7th in 2018 before picking up the title a year later, whereas Richard McEvoy finished 28th on debut in 2017 where he led after the first round. Jordan Smith was making his competitive course debut in 2017, as were the rest of the field.
More recently Marcus Armitage had missed the cut in 2017, following a first round 73 with an 81 which was the worst round of the day, whereas last year’s winner Kalle Samooja had finished 18th on his previous attempt:
2022, Kalle Samooja: MC/18
2021, Marcus Armitage: MC
2019, Paul Casey: 7
2018, Richard McEvoy: 28
2017, Jordan Smith: Debut
Boiling it all down, this is a long, challenging course that presents scoring opportunities to aggressive players, but plotters can equally contend when it’s dry. Despite having 6 par-5s and a couple of short par-4s, this course isn’t a complete birdie-fest with -14, -13, -11, -8 (54 holes) and -6 winning scores telling us that players will need to pick and choose when to attack this track.
A similar field to many of the more recent DP World Tour events, once again with the emphasis on Strokes Gained Tee to Green, leads me to a similar conclusion at the top of the market with Yannik Paul my leading selection.
Although ultimately disappointing when we’ve had him on-side at the Indian Open and ISPS Handa Championship this year – the former in particular when he relinquished a 5-stroke halfway lead to Marcel Siem – he has nevertheless been profitable for us when backed and I’m happy to support him once again.
A pre-event withdrawal when I’d also backed him at the Soudal Open earlier this month was disappointing but understandable once he’d learnt that he’d gained an invite to the US PGA Championship, and the German tees it up for the first time this week since making his first Major cut at Oak Hill.
69th overall on what was just the 29 year-old’s second Major appearance doesn’t sound that impressive, however it’s worth noting that he battled back from an opening 76 to make the cut with a Friday 69, plus his finishing position was just 1 stroke behind Pablo Larrazabal who won impressively last week in Holland.
Finishes of 2nd, 2nd and 6th in Thailand, Indian and Japan were driven by outstanding long game statistics of 5th, 1st and 2nd for SG Approach and 1st, 2nd and 3rd for SG Tee to Green respectively, and a repeat of those kind of levels this week should see him go very close on home soil.
Since finishing 18th here at Green Eagle on debut 12 months ago, Paul has secured his maiden DP World Tour title on a fairly challenging test in Mallorca. Although not the longest off the tee by any stretch, averaging 302 yards from off the tee, with dry conditions expected the home-grown star could prove to be a local here this week. RESULT: T66
*bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. Registration required. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.
✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
bet365 New Customer Offer: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad
Backing defending champions isn’t my preference in general, however I’ll make an exception to the rule this week given what we’ve seen recently from Kalle Samooja.
The Finn’s sparkling final round of 64 here last year – which was a full three strokes better than anyone else could muster at any point 12 months ago – was enough to catapult him from a tie for 22nd at the start of the day to a 2-stroke victory.
The key to Samooja’s success was gaining over 16 strokes from tee-to-green on the week, which isn’t always his modus operandi. 12th at the Dubai Desert Classic earlier that season had been fuelled by a field-leading SG Putting performance to reinforce the point, however there were strong signs at the Cazoo Classic the previous summer – where he again topped SG T2G – that when everything clicks then he can excel in either facet of the game.
Since his breakthrough win it’s fair to say that the 35 year-old’s form has been middling at best. 12 Missed Cuts and no top 20 finishes to note up until the start of this month hardly inspires, however he seemed to turn the corner at the Italian Open as we moved into May. 4th for SG Off the Tee and 11th for SG Tee to Green were positive long-game signs and he continued that last week by topping GIR last week in Holland, hitting a massive 85.2% of greens over the 4 days.
Continuing his long game form is not a given, however with positive vibes from last year’s performance I’m happy to take a chance on him at the price on offer. RESULT: T22
*bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. Registration required. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.
✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
bet365 New Customer Offer: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad
Matthias Schmid 1pt EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
If one thing that we’ve all learnt over the years when backing players on the European Tour and now the DP World Tour, it’s that players returning from higher-level PGA Tour action should be respected, even if their headline form doesn’t look that impressive.
Lucas Herbert is a recent case in point, having won the ISPS Handa Championship in Japan last month. Strokeplay PGA Tour form of 50/58/MC/MC/63 hardly inspired, despite making it through to the knockout stages at the WGC Match Play within that spell, yet a drop down in class saw the Australian pick up a third title at this lower level.
Fitting the bill in this respect we find Matti Schmid who plies his trade State-side nowadays. A best finish this season of 6th at The America Express is head and shoulders above the vast majority of this field, and although he’s failed to hit the same heights since that effort in January, he should still be respected.
A return to Europe last week at the KLM Open resulted in a 21st place finish and a best headline result since that effort at PGA West, and was punctuated by a final round 68 which contained five unanswered birdies after an early bogey. 16/18 greens hit in that final round should fill the 25 year-old with confidence as he heads to Germany still looking for his first professional title.
Form in his homeland is solid with 3 top-20 finishes and a top-10 finish at lower levels, however this is a far more experienced player nowadays with the power off the tee to tackle this lengthy layout the aggressive way. RESULT: MC
*bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. Registration required. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.
✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
bet365 New Customer Offer: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad
Renato Paratore 1pt EW 140/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Finally, further down the market Renato Paratore flashed some form last week and is worthy of support at a strong 3-figure price.
Finishing 118th in the DP World Tour Rankings last season meant that the 2-time DP World Tour winner missed out on retaining his card by a couple of points, with the exemption from his 2020 British Masters success now a thing of the past. That’s disappointing for a player of Paratore’s undoubted ability, however these opportunities where field depth allows his category a start have to be capitalised upon.
It looked like the 26 year-old might do just that in Holland last week, opening with a pair of 68s to sit in second place heading into the weekend before the wheels fell off. 39th overall has kept Renato off of the bookies radar, however I suspect that this week will suit the big Italian better than Bernardus did.
Course form of 2/MC/11/MC shows promise and inconsistency in equal measure, however those stronger performances have come in the years where dry conditions have prevailed and with the promise of a dry and sunny 4 days to come, perhaps he’ll continue the sequence this week with one of his better performances and threaten the top end of the leaderboard.
Aside from his aforementioned win at Close House in 2020, Paratore claimed his maiden title in 2017 at the 7,739 yard Par 73 at Barseback which hosted that year’s Nordea Masters. A winning total of 11-under puts that week’s test in a similar bracket to this, and I can see the Rome man outperforming his odds. RESULT: T44
*bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. Registration required. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.
✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
bet365 New Customer Offer: New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad
