Welcome to the 2024 FedEx Cup Fall which will ultimately finalise top 125 eligibility for next season which will start at the 2025 Sentry. While players in the top 50 will continue to be eligible for FedEx Cup Fall events, players ranked 51st and beyond carry over their FedEx Cup Points from the Regular Season, plus the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and will continue to accumulate points through the FedEx Cup Fall toward their eligibility status for 2025.
As per last year, additionally the top 10 players in the FedEx Cup standings, not otherwise exempt, from the FedEx Cup Fall – called the Aon Next 10 – will be eligible for two Signature Events in early 2025 – the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational. This allows for trending players this autumn to play their way into the biggest tournaments early next season.
The FedExCup Fall element has increased to 8 events from 7 last year. We have a new tournament in the form of the Black Desert Championship in Utah. The ZOZO Championship again will be played at the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club outside of Tokyo, Japan, whilst Mexico’s World Wide Technology Championship remains at El Cardonal at Diamante.
The Procore (previously Fortinet) Championship at the classical, tree-lined Silverado Country Club attracts a number of quality players year-in, year-out. This 2024 renewal, which starts the FedEx Cup Fall, sees defending champion Sahith Theegala go for a repeat, with more Presidents Cup players in the form of Wyndham Clark, Corey Conners, Max Homa, Mackenzie Hughes and Min Woo Lee all in the field.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the Procore Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: Silverado Resort and Spa was purchased in 2010 by a small group of individuals including Johnny Miller who soon set about updating both the North and South courses. Set in the rich wine growing country of the Napa Valley, the North Course had played host to the PGA Tour from 1968 to 1976 and also the Champions Tour from 1977 to 1980.
Miller’s goal had always been to attract the PGA Tour back to the North Course with a view to potentially landing the U.S. Open or PGA Championship in the future. So 2011 saw Miller re-design both courses with the 1966 Trent Jones Jnr tournament course receiving a renovation that added 250 yards and saw a host of holes re-routed.
North Course, Silverado Resort and Spa, Napa, California: Designer: Trent Jones Jnr, 1966 with a Miller redesign, 2011; Course Type: Classical, Resort, Short; Par: 72; Length: 7,123 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 2; Number of Sand Bunkers: 53; Acres of Fairway: 20; Fairways: Bermudagrass with Poa Annua, and Rye; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass and Rye, 2.5″; Greens: 5,400 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Stimpmeter: 11.5ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2023: 71.16 (-0.84), Rank 39 of 58 courses
2022: 71.52 (-0.48) Rank 21 of 50 courses
2021: 71.03 (-0.97) Rank 32 of 50 courses
2020: 21 (-1.79) Rank 44 of 51 courses
2019: 24 (-0.76) Rank 19 of 41 courses
2018: 10 (-0.90) Rank 29 of 49 courses
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Robert Trent Jones Jnr designs include:
Chambers Bay – 2015 U.S. Open
CordeValle – 2010 – 2013 Frys.com Open
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Silverado and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Overview: The North Course is a classical, tree-lined track that’s set up to be scoreable at the Procore Championship. It’s not overly long at just over 7,120 yards, however the Par 72 features plenty of dog-legs with Napa Valley Oaks and Redwoods strategically placed to block approach shots.
Miller re-routed a number of holes, lengthened the course and re-worked the bunkering with the goal of creating an ‘Augusta-type’ feel. Fairways are on the tight side and are very difficult to hit – but the penalty is not massive despite 3″ rough. Green complexes and surrounding rough are the main defence with some fairly severe undulations, and with winning totals at -21/267, -16/272, -19/269, -21/267, and -17/271 across the last 5 seasons, this course doesn’t offer up too much resistance when playing well.
This event traditionally favoured free-scoring players who can putt beautifully and confidently on greens that have Poa Annua within their structure. As we know Poa Annua is not every player’s cup of tea. Prior to 2015, a winners’ list with Molder, Blixt, Walker and Bae clearly indicated that strong putters, and those with an excellent scrambling game from the rough, had an advantage in Northern California. But in more recent times, bigger-hitting ball-strikers in the shape of Max Homa (x2), Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, Brendan Steele (x2) and Emiliano Grillo have won here at Silverado.
Set-up wise, the North Course at Silverado is a classical-style golf course – indeed Johnny Miller has a long-term goal of landing a U.S. Open or PGA Championship here. Fairly tight, tree-lined fairways can block approach shots and pin positions can be tucked into areas where accessibility is difficult. To add to the difficulty, 2017 saw 7 green complexes feature closely mown run-off areas which grab wayward approaches. The greens themselves, especially on the front side, are described as severely sloping by many, which in turn has placed Silverado in the top half of difficulty on Tour when it comes to proximity to the pin since its arrival on the schedule. Another insightful statistic is that the course typically ranks in the top 20 hardest for Going for the Green, which makes sense when so many fairways are missed by the field.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the Procore Championship winners since 2014 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Max Homa, Maverick McNealy, Keith Mitchell, Corey Conners, Min Woo Lee, Tom Hoge, Jhonattan Vegas and Cameron Champ.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
2023: Thursday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind S 8-15 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 82. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 80. Wind SW 8-15 mph. Sunday: High of 78. Wind SW 10-18 mph.
2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 79. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 79. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 77. Wind SW 12-22 mph. Sunday: Cloudy and rainy. High of 63. Wind SE 10-20 mph. Due to inclement weather, the final round featured threesomes off split tees from 8 – 10:12 a.m. PT. Preferred lies were in effect for the final round.
2021: Thursday: Overcast morning leading to a sunny afternoon. High of 76. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 75. Wind SW 8-16 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 67. Wind SW 12-22 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind WNW 6-12 mph.
2020: Thursday: Due to fog, the start to round one was delayed one hour and began at 8 a.m. Cloudy, with a high of 69. Wind SSW 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 70. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Hazy filtered sunshine, with a high of 85. Wind SW 4-8 mph. Sunday: Filtered sunshine, with a high of 85. Wind WSW 5-10 mph.
2019: Thursday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind SW 6-12 mph, with gusts to 18 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 77. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Morning tee times were delayed 10 minutes due to fog. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 73. Wind NW 12-18 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 69. Wind W 6-12 mph, with gusts to 18 mph.
2018: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 70. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 74. Wind SW 8-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 78. Wind NW 7-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny and windy, with a high of 84. Wind N 15-25 mph, with gusts to 36 mph.
2017: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 86. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 84. N wind 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph.
2016: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 69. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with moderate rain showers in the afternoon. High of 66. Wind SW 10-20 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 66, with heavy rain in the afternoon. Sunday: Cloudy, with a high of 66. Wind SW 8-15 mph.
2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind SW at 8-14 mph. Friday: High of 79. SW wind at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 77. Wind S at 10-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy in the afternoon, with a high of 75. SW wind at 6-12 mph.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Napa, California is here.
This part of California, famous for its vineyards, is notoriously dry. With little in the way of rain this month and none due in tournament week, we should again see fast fairway conditions. Tournament organisers are likely to produce receptive enough greens, which sometimes firm up across the weekend. With little wind in the forecast, and with temperatures of 25-28 degrees (77-82 Fahrenheit), I would expect the standard high-teens scoring affair.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Open Championship / Barracuda Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Chandler Phillips; 2) C.T. Pan; 3) Corey Conners; 4) Patrick Fishburn; 5) Cameron Champ; 6) Beau Hossler / Kevin Streelman; 8) Nicolas Echavarria; 9) Lanto Griffin; 10) Joseph Bramlett / Matt Kuchar; 12) Wyndham Clark / Tyler Duncan; 14) Chan Kim; 15) Sahith Theegala; 16) Matti Schmid; 17) Nicolas Lindheim / Carson Young; 19) Neal Shipley; 20) Jhonattan Vegas; 21) Charley Hoffman / J.J. Spaun; 23) Chesson Hadley; 24) Patrick Rodgers; 25) Ryan Brehm.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) J.J. Spaun; 2) Neal Shipley; 3) Austin Smotherman; 4) Doug Ghim; 5) Henrik Norlander / Chez Reavie; 7) Luke Clanton / Eric Cole; 9) Corey Conners / Tom Hoge; 11) Jhonattan Vegas; 12) Nick Hardy; 13) Russell Knox / Andrew Putnam / Gary Woodland; 16) Brandon Wu; 17) Charley Hoffman; 18) Kevin Kisner; 19) Will Gordon; 20) Mac Meissner; 21) Parker Coody; 22) Patrick Fishburn / Tom Whitney; 24) Nico Echavarria; 25) Wyndham Clark.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Russell Knox; 2) Cody Gribble; 3) Webb Simpson; 4) Danny Willett; 5) Vince Whaley; 6) Patrick Rodgers / Robby Shelton; 8) Mackenzie Hughes; 9) Maverick McNealy; 10) Nicolas Echavarria / Alex Smalley; 12) Eric Cole; 13) Ryan Moore; 14) Ben Kohles; 15) Wesley Bryan / Wyndham Clark; 17) Harris English; 18) Justin Lower / Chad Ramey; 20) Aaron Baddeley; 21) Sahith Theegala; 22) Tim Wilkinson; 23) Daniel Berger / Martin Trainer; 25) Max Homa / Henrik Norlander / David Skinns.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) J.J. Spaun; 2) Neal Shipley; 3) Russell Knox / Henrik Norlander; 5) Patrick Fishburn / Austin Smotherman; 7) Charley Hoffman; 8) Corey Conners / Doug Ghim; 10) Nicolas Echavarria; 11) Jhonattan Vegas; 12) Tom Hoge; 13) Joseph Bramlett / Eric Cole / Andrew Putnam; 16) Mac Meissner; 17) Patrick Rodgers; 18) C.T. Pan; 19) Nicolas Lindheim / Chan Kim; 21) Nick Hardy; 22) Wyndham Clark; 23) Matt Kuchar; 24) Ben Kohles; 25) Kevin Chappell / Lanto Griffin / Chez Reavie.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Mackenzie Hughes; 2) Martin Trainer; 3) Erik Barnes / Wyndham Clark; 5) Brendon Todd; 6) Matt NeSmith / Justin Suh; 8) Harris English / Vince Whaley; 10) Martin Laird; 11) Cameron Champ; 12) Max Homa; 13) Chad Ramey / Camilo Villegas; 15) Aaron Baddeley / Chris Gotterup; 17) Corey Conners / S.H. Kim; 19) Patrick Fishburn; 20) Eric Cole; 21) Kevin Tway; 22) Sahith Theegala; 23) Maverick McNealy / Patrick Rodgers; 25) Min Woo Lee / Sean O’Hair.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Matt Kuchar; 2) J.J. Spaun; 3) Patrick Fishburn; 4) Brendon Todd; 5) Eric Cole; 6) Corey Conners; 7) Mac Meissner / Patrick Rodgers; 9) Andrew Putnam; 10) Nicolas Echavarria / Charley Hoffman; 12) Mackenzie Hughes 13) Henrik Norlander / Justin Suh; 15) Doug Ghim / Justin Lower; 17) Chad Ramey; 18) Ben Kohles; 19) Wyndham Clark; 20) Rico Hoey / Chan Kim / Neap Shipley / Gary Woodland; 24) Cameron Champ; 25) Lanto Griffin / Matt NeSmith / C.T. Pan.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Silverado click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Procore Championship winners here at Silverado since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical, tree-lined Par 72:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2023, Sahith Theegala (-21). SG Off the Tee: 40th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 2nd.
2022, Max Homa (-16). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 15th.
2021, Max Homa (-19). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 15th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 14th.
2020, Stewart Cink (-21). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 23rd, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 13th.
2019, Cameron Champ (-17). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 13th, SG Around the Green: 19th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 28th.
2018, Kevin Tway (-14). SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 23rd, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 18th.
2017, Brendan Steele (-15). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 48th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 29th.
2016, Brendan Steele (-18). SG Off the Tee: 20th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 38th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 6th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 14th, SG Approach: 13th, SG Around the Green: 19th, SG Tee to Green: 8th, SG Putting: 12th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2014 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2023, Sahith Theegala (-21). 303 yards (21st), 44.6% fairways (46th), 73.6% greens in regulation (25th), 33’9″ proximity to hole (25th), 73.7 % scrambling (5th), 1.55 putts per GIR (1st).
2022, Max Homa (-16). 301 yards (34th), 57.1% fairways (7th), 70.8% greens in regulation (7th), 32’11” proximity to hole (10th), 85.7 % scrambling (3rd), 1.69 putts per GIR (13th).
2021, Max Homa (-19). 311 yards (24th), 57.1% fairways (7th), 72.2% greens in regulation (19th), 37’2″ proximity to hole (48th), 60.0 % scrambling (42nd), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
2020, Stewart Cink (-21). 316 yards (11th), 55.4% fairways (24th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 29″8″ proximity to hole (22nd), 90.9% scrambling (2nd), 1.74 putts per GIR (52nd).
2019, Cameron Champ (-17). 337 yards (1st), 53.6% fairways (21st), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 37″9″ proximity to hole (51st), 84.2 % scrambling (1st), 1.74 putts per GIR (38th).
2018, Kevin Tway (-14). 319 yards (14th), 51.8% fairways (40th), 72.2% greens in regulation (18th), 36″3″ proximity to hole (48th), 80.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.73 putts per GIR (22nd).
2017, Brendan Steele (-15). 328 yards (1st), 67.9% fairways (3rd), 79.2% greens in regulation (4th), 29″10″ proximity to hole (6th), 73.3 % scrambling (7th), 1.81 putts per GIR (60th).
2016, Brendan Steele (-18). 292 yards (23rd), 64.3% fairways (5th), 75.0% greens in regulation (21st), 30″0″ proximity to hole (16th), 72.2 % scrambling (4th), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
2015, Emiliano Grillo (-15). 300 yards (37th), 64.3% fairways (8th), 73.6% greens in regulation (16th), 30″0″ proximity to hole (3rd), 73.7 % scrambling (5th), 1.74 putts per GIR (41st).
2014, Sang-moon Bae (-15). 299 yards (26th), 55.4% fairways (45th), 75.0% greens in regulation (6th), 28″5″ proximity to hole (4th), 77.8 % scrambling (3rd), 1.70 putts per GIR (18th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 19th, Driving Accuracy: 21st, Greens in Regulation: 13th, Proximity to Hole: 23rd, Scrambling: 7th, Putting Average 26th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how the North Course at Silverado sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Sahith Theegala (2023): “Still not used to the new routing of the course, so I just – the back nine now’s definitely the very scoreable nine. So starting on the back today, I think it’s kind of nice, you kind of ease into the round versus starting on 1, a couple hard holes right out the gate.
I got really fortunate, I got a couple really nice breaks, specifically on 4 and 6. I had really nice lies in the rough, or nice lie in the rough on 4, able to hit that on the green. I had like a perfect little alley through the trees on 6 and knocked that close. Definitely a bonus when those drives probably should result in some sort of tough par look, but I had two good birdie looks there.”
Max Homa (2022): “I drove the ball unbelievable last year if I remember right. This year my mid irons have been really good, but it’s not too far off. My game honestly from last year all the way to now, from this event last year to now feels very similar, which is great. It’s just a testament to my coach, Mark Blackburn. It feels like I’m doing the same stuff, I’m just getting a little better at it, so it feels quite similar. I get on these greens and I feel like I read them really well. Joe reads them great, so anytime I brought him 2 in for a read I just feel like we have a good eye for the greens. So nothing feels too different, but I’m happy that, last year I felt like I was struggling a little bit around like 150 to 200 and this week it feels much better so some of these par 3s I feel a lot more confident on. Yeah, it’s not too dissimilar.
“Yeah, the North Course fits my eye. I think I know what to do when I’m out of position, I think that’s quite important. And yeah, when I am in position, it fits me. I hit a lot of wedges, been hitting the wedges really well, so when you get a lot of wedges from these fairways I feel like I can attack the pins, and when I’ve been out of position I just feel like I know where to leave the golf ball. I don’t know, I guess I just see the golf course pretty well.”
Max Homa (2021): ” I love coming back to California. I seem to play well in California. I love this event, I love this golf course.
My eagle on 16. Yeah, I made the worst swing I’ve made in like a year and a half on the hole prior and fortunately came back and hit a really good drive, had a really good number. I can’t remember what it was, but it was a perfect 7-wood if I just drew it a little. That hole’s interesting, if you just keep it anywhere inside the bunker and right of the pin, it will bounce up onto the green. Went just past. Haven’t made a long putt in a while, so it’s nice to see one go in. Yeah, it was just one of those holes, hit three good shots and good to be 2 under on one hole.
This place is all based you know, yesterday you saw the pins were gnarly and nobody would make a lot of birdies. Today they were definitely more favourable, but you need to be in the fairway or at least on the right angle, but if you hit good shots, you’ll get it close. Yesterday you couldn’t really get the ball too close to the hole, so just depends what they do with the golf course with the pins tomorrow.”
Stewart Cink (2020): “Well, I think the ground has dried out a lot, so the ball’s going farther in the air, but it’s also going farther when it lands, especially off the tees, so you’re having to account for a little bit more of that. The rough is dried out, so it’s playing a little bit more unpredictable than it was before when it was still kind of damp. And the greens are still holding, so I still expect scores to be pretty low today.”
Cameron Champ (2019): “I just play (the par-5s) them as aggressive as I can. Obviously key is getting it in the fairway out here, some of the par 5s are pretty narrow, and then from there, like I said, I usually play my best whenever I stay aggressive and that’s what I try to do on the par 5s. Out here it just depends on the pins. Sometimes I don’t even care if I’m in the rough, it doesn’t really matter. I’ll just try to position it off the tee. If the pin’s far left, I’ll play the right side. And like I said, I’ll take it in the rough being up there hitting driver. So that’s kind of how I look at it this week. For me, the par 5s out here are key. I feel like I have to birdie those with my length, and some of the chances I can have at them, those are key for the rest of the week.”
Kevin Tway: “Yeah, I played in the wind all the time from Oklahoma State, and now I live in Jupiter and it’s windy there, so I’m comfortable with the wind. Got to hit the ball solid and that’s just what I’m trying to do. Yeah, the 2nd hole’s hard, especially when it was cold this morning. I think I hit 2-iron and I don’t hit many 2-irons on par 3s. Yeah, that hole’s tough. If the greens firm up, a couple of pins could be pretty tough, but there’s no wind, so it should be pretty good scoring.”
Brendan Steele: “The difficulty on this course is definitely on the greens. You have to be careful where you leave it. They’re quick and got a lot of slope. A few have tons of slope. Nos. 3, 4, 8, these holes, like if you get on the wrong side you’ve got no chance. As the week goes on it’s going to firm up. If you’re out of position it’s going to be almost impossible to hold the greens, as it was last year. I think even though there are some shorter holes that they’re really good strategically because they have areas where you can’t be always. So you know, okay, if I’m going to lay up here I need to lay up left so I can come in this way or you have the tree in your way or there is a bunker on the other side. If you’re hitting good shots you can score well, and if you’re not hitting good shots it’ll penalized you a little bit.”
Emiliano Grillo: “The course asks you to be aggressive a little bit, but you have to be very smart out there. If you play smart you can score well. Out here you got to play well off the tee. You got to play from the fairway. If not, you can get some bogeys out there. I think the main key is staying patient and hitting some solid shots.”
Justin Rose: “Yeah, this is a golf course where you have to drive it well. If you do drive it well around here, you set up a lot of birdie chances. The par-5s are all within range and then there are a lot of par-4s where you have wedges into the green. That’s why you see guys going low. Also a tricky course. Has its subtleties. You got to put the ball in play. There are some doglegs. Pretty narrow off the tee. It’s kind of the course if you play well you can go low. It’s going to find out our if you’re not on your game.”
2017 – Duncan/Hoge/Steele – All AM -7/65 – 125/1 100/1 45/1.
2016 – Piercy – AM -10/62.
2015 – Steele – AM -8/64.
2014 – Bae/Gonzales AM/PM Split -6/66.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Max Homa, Brandt Snedeker
2 – Chez Reavie, Nick Taylor, Nick Watney, Gary Woodland.
1 – Aaron Baddeley, Daniel Berger, Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Wyndham Clark, Harris English, James Hahn, Tom Hoge, J.B. Holmes, Matt Kuchar, Nate Lashley, Sean O’Hair, Andrew Putnam, Sahith Theegala, Kevin Tway.
The Procore Championship – previously the Fortinet Championship, Safeway Open or Frys.com – produces some interesting trends. Although the tournament has had various schedule slots across the ‘Fall Series’, all winners have been between 28/1 and 200/1 across the past 13 renewals.
In terms of form, Sahith Theegala, Max Homa (2021 win), Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Brendan Steele and Kevin Tway of late highlight that immediate top 10 form here is no requirement for victory. Emiliano Grillo in 2015, on the other hand, was quite simply playing exceptional golf after winning the web.com (Korn Ferry) Tour Championship on his previous outing.
Theegala, Cink, Steele, Bae, Molder, Blixt and Walker all had previous main Tour top 10 finishes ‘Out West’ to their names, whilst Max Homa had won the 2021 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in February prior to winning here at Silverado in September. So west coast form is an angle, but it’s not imperative.
This tournament in recent times has also seen a pretty equal mix of experienced Tour winners and maiden winners – Molder, Blixt and Walker at CordeValle; plus Grillo, Tway and Theegala all won their first PGA Tour titles here.
On the other side, Sang-moon Bae had won at TPC Four Seasons in 2013 prior to winning here in 2014, and Brandon Steele had only tasted PGA Tour victory once, a distant 4 years prior to lifting the trophy here in 2016. Cameron Champ was also another single winner when capturing the title here in 2019, having won the 2018 Sanderson Farms Championship prior to his win here at Silverado. Stewart Cink had won 6 times on the PGA Tour but was winless for 11 years before winning here in 2020, with Max Homa being a 2-time PGA Tour winner prior to his 2021 victory and a 4-time winner prior to 2022. As far as patterns go, it’s a veritable melting pot in reality.
Spreading things slightly broader and taking the first tournament after the Tour Championship into account across the last 14 seasons – naturally this includes the ‘Fall Series’ from 2010 through to 2013 – 10 of those 14 tournaments have been won by players ranked in the top 90 in the Official Golf World Rankings. Bae (2014), Tway (2018) and Cink (2020) won with OWGR ranks of 195, 138 and 319 respectively.
Bill Haas – 2010 Viking Classic – OWGR 89 – 22/1
Kevin Na – 2011 Shriners Open – OWGR 76 – 60/1
Ryan Moore – 2012 Shriners Open – OWGR 44 – 14/1
Jimmy Walker – 2013 Frys.com Open – OWGR 66 – 30/1
My Final Procore Championship Tips Are As Follows:
Sahith Theegala 3pts EW 11/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
Sometimes selecting the winner here at Silverado has been as easy as going with the defending champion. Brendon Steele did the double here in 2016/17 and Max Homa did exactly the same in 2021/22. Homa’s 2022 triumph – at a best price 16/1 favourite – interests me as a back story on the basis that he came here the week before the President’s Cup, straight after clocking-up the 3rd best 72-hole score at the Tour Championship, 2 shots off the 2022 FedEx Cup winner Rory McIlroy.
Fast forward 2 years and Sahith Theegala is pretty much in exactly the same spot, 2 weeks before representing Team USA in the Royal Montreal Golf Club-hosted President’s Cup. His achievement at the recent Tour Championship was pretty immense, finishing 2nd for 72-hole Scoring and ultimately clinching 3rd in the FedEx Cup for which he garnered a cool $7.5 million bonus. However I still feel that Sahith wants to prove himself to both his peers and the golfing public by winning a 2nd PGA Tour title. Defending his title from 12 months ago is something I’m sure that Sahith would love to do this week from a motivational perspective, against a weak field when compared to East Lake.
Theegala has also shown a liking for playing on the west coast since he arrived on the PGA Tour. 2nd (2024) at Kapalua, 4th (2023) at Torrey Pines, 3rd (2022) and 5th (2024) at TPC Scottsdale, plus 6th (2023) at Riviera Country Club – all in elite fields.
His form here at Silverado across 4 events reads 14th (2020), 6th (2021) and 1st (2023) whilst in this field he ranks 2nd for Strokes Gained Total across our Procore Championship Strokes Gained rankings.
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Maverick McNealy 2pts EW 25/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred
Maverick McNealy has undoubtedly had his best season on the PGA Tour. 53rd in the FedEx Cup standings, a closing Sunday -6/64 last time we saw him at the FedEx St Jude Championship was almost enough to get him his ticket into all of the 2025 Signature events, but he came up just short. Clearly a place in the Aon Next 10 this Fall must now be a realistic target for a player who has 4 top-10 finishes in 2024 to his name.
A look at McNealy’s PGA Tour best finishes highlights a player who is very, very specialised. 5th (2020) and 2nd (2021) at Pebble Beach (3 course rota at circa 7,100 yards), 2nd (2021) here at Silverado (7,123 yards), 4th (2021) at Harbour Town (7,121 yards), 6th (2024) at TPC Scottsdale (7,261 yards at altitude), 7th (2023) at Waialae CC (7,044 yards), 7th (2020) at Old Greenwood (7,390 yards at altitude), 7th (2024) at Hamilton G&CC (7,084 yards), 8th (2020) at Detroit Golf Club (7,320 yards), 8th (2022) at TPC Deere Run (7,289 yards), 9th (2024) at TPC Sawgrass (7,256 yards) and 10th (2022) at TPC Summerlin (7,255 yards at altitude).
Throw in 11th (2020) at PGA National and 12th (2020) & 10th (2022) at El Camaleon and you can see it’s short formats all the way for Maverick. Silverado should be right up his street and as we know he finished runner-up here to Max Homa in 2021.
Plus Maverick tends to save his very best performances for his home Golden State. Indeed McNealy has 7 top-10 finishes in California, with that including 3rd at the 2019 Ellie Mae Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour. From a PGA Tour those top-10s are across Pebble Beach, Old Greenwood and Riviera Country Club, all of which feature Poa Annua within their putting surfaces.
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J.J. Spaun must have been sitting on his hands over the past few weeks. 10th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, 9th at the 3M Open, plus a fast finishing 3rd at the Wyndham Championship last time out. His current good form is best highlighted by the fact that in this field across my 8-week Strokes Gained tracker J.J. ranks 1st for Approach, 1st for Tee to Green and 2nd for Strokes Gained Current Form. He’s in rude health.
Keeping this form going into the Fall could well prove valuable for Spaun who at 102nd in the Official Golf World Rankings is a couple of big results away from a year-end top 50 spot (2025 Masters invite) and naturally the Aon Next 10 is a more likely avenue to make the early 2025 Signature events. Plus his form here at Silverado is strong enough. 8 appearances have gleaned 9th (2020) and 11th (2023) plus he’s been around the top 16 a further 3 times before disappointing weekends.
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Charley Hoffman 1pt EW 80/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Call me an old romantic but I’ll close with Charley Hoffman who has played some nice stuff in 2024. At 81st in the FedEx Cup standings his place on the Tour in 2025 is already guaranteed, and I think he has a chance this week at Silverado. 8th (Barracuda) and 12th (Wyndham) across his past 3 outings, Charley in this field ranks in the top 25 for Off the Tee, top 20 for Approach and the top 10 for both Tee to Green and Current Form in my 8-week Strokes Gained rankings.
His first of 4 PGA Tour wins came at the 2007 Bob Hope Classic at PGA West in California and his record on the west coast is excellent across Torrey Pines: 7th (2009), 7th (2014) 9th (2020); Pebble Beach: 7th (2021); Riviera: 4th (2017); TPC Scottsdale: 2nd (2009), 2nd (2024); and Old Greenwood 8th (2024).
Comfortable on Poa Annua-base greens, last time we saw Charley at the Wyndham Championship he shot 3 rounds in the 60’s to grab 12th spot – his best finish at Sedgefield Country Club.
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