Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's Puerto Rico Open Tips 2025

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It’s easy to overlook these ‘second division’ opposite PGA Tour tournaments and focus on the main event which this week is the Arnold Palmer Invitational. However these alternate events are a massive opportunity for both players and punters alike and we’ve enjoyed success in the past. This week’s Puerto Rico Open is where the less fortunate have a huge opportunity to grab a PGA Tour victory and, more importantly, full playing privileges until the close of 2027. Don’t underestimate the importance of that prize, especially with only 100 full PGA Tour cards being handed out in 2025 (down 25).

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Puerto Rico Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Course Guide: The tournament is hosted at the Grand Reserve Country Club in Rio Grande. It’s a booming Tom Kite-designed Par 72 located on an exposed stretch of the island’s northern coastline. Wind plays a serious factor in the outcome of the tournament and the winning score is pretty much defined by the severity of the breeze from the Mid-Atlantic and whether tournament organisers decide to move forward tees on a number of the par-5s. We scored here with Chesson Hadley in 2014 when he won at -21/267 and the last renewal held here 12 months ago saw Brice Garnett win with a -19/269 total. However as we see on coastal courses when the wind blows so scores increase, with 2015 seeing Cejka triumph at -7/281 and 2016 seeing Finau capturing the title at -12/276.

Grand Reserve Country Club, Rio Grande, Puerto Rico: Designer: Tom Kite 2004 with Kite re-design 2008; Course Type: Coastal, Resort, Long; Par: 72; Length: 7,506 yards; Fairways: Salam Paspalum; Rough: Salam Paspalum 2.5″; Greens: 6,500 sq.ft average Sea Dwarf Paspalum; Tournament Stimp: 11ft.

Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:

  • 2024: 70.07 (-1.93), Rank 38 of 51 courses
  • 2023: 71.25 (-0.75), Rank 27 of 49 courses
  • 2022: 71.34 (-0.66), Rank 23 of 50 courses
  • 2021: 71.23 (-0.77), Rank 28 of 51 courses
  • 2020: 70.64 (-1.36), Rank 31 of 41 courses

Course Overview: At 7,500 yards, Grand Reserve CC is a stretching Par 72 at sea level. As with all Par 72s, scoring well on the 4 looks at par-5s is important, especially on the back 9 here where, if played to their full length, the 15th and 18th play at 600 yards and 630 yards respectively. The key (as always) will be maximising par-5 opportunities and scoring heavily on a number of short par-4s where the players get wedge in their hands. Wind as ever here is the key to scoring, and with lighter wind in play this year, I can see -20/268 to -22/266 being the target a player needs to look at shooting to be in the mix for victory.

puerto rico open tips

Puerto Rico Open Winners: 2024: Brice Garnett (-19); 2023: Nico Echavarria (-21); 2022: Ryan Brehm (-20); 2021: Branden Grace (-19); 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20); 2019: Martin Trainer (-15); 2017: D.A. Points (-20); 2016: Tony Finau (-12); 2015: Alex Cejka (-7); 2014: Chesson Hadley (-21); 2013: Scott Brown (-20); 2012: George McNeill (-16); 2011: Michael Bradley (-16); 2010: Derek Lamely (-19).

  • 2024: Brice Garnett 66-66-68-69 -19/269
  • 2023: Nico Echavarria 67-67-65-68 -21/267
  • 2022: Ryan Brehm 66-67-68-67 -20/268
  • 2021: Branden Grace 67-68-68-66 -19/269
  • 2020: Viktor Hovland 68-66-64-70 -20/268
  • 2019: Martin Trainer 70-67-69-67 -15/273
  • 2017: D.A. Points 64-69-69-66 -20/268

OWGR of Puerto Rico Open Winners: 2024: Garnett: 535; 2023: Echavarria 406; 2022: Brehm 773; 2021: Grace 147; 2020: Hovland 102; 2019: Trainer 205; 2017: Points 634.

Cut Line: 2024: -4; 2023: -1; 2022: -1; 2021: +2; 2020: +3; 2019: +1; 2018: +1; 2017: +2.

Lead Score Progression:

  • 2024: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -19.
  • 2023: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -17; Round 4 -21.
  • 2022: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -20.
  • 2022: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -20.
  • 2021: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -19.
  • 2020: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -20.
  • 2019: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -8; Round 3 -12; Round 4 -15.

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for Puerto Rico Open winners since 2010:

  • 2024 – Brice Garnett: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2023 – Nico Echavarria: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2022 – Ryan Brehm: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2021 – Branden Grace: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 3rd.
  • 2020 – Viktor Hovland: Round 1: 14th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2019 – Martin Trainer: Round 1: 20th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 3rd.
  • 2017 – D.A. Points: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2016 – Tony Finau: Round 1: 16th, Round 2: 15th, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2015 – Alex Cejka: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 5th.
  • 2014 – Chesson Hadley: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2013 – Scott Brown: Round 1: 14th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2012 – George McNeill: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2011 – Michael Bradley: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 3rd.
  • 2010 – Derek Lamely: Round 1: 23rd, Round 2 35th, Round 3: 5th.

Shots From the Lead: Below are Puerto Rico Open winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament since 2010:

  • 2024 – Brice Garnett: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2023 – Nico Echavarria: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
  • 2022 – Ryan Brehm: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 3 ahead.
  • 2021 – Branden Grace: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2020 – Viktor Hovland: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 1 ahead.
  • 2019 – Martin Trainer: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2017 – D.A. Points: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: Level, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2016 – Tony Finau: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2015 – Alex Cejka: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2014 – Chesson Hadley: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
  • 2013 – Scott Brown: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
  • 2012 – George McNeill: Round 1: Level, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
  • 2011 – Michael Bradley: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 4 back.
  • 2010 – Derek Lamely: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 4 back.

Incoming Form of Puerto Rico Open winners since 2010:

  • Brice Garnett: 51st Astara/MC Panama/MC Abaco/MC RSM Classic.
  • Nico Echavarria: MC PGA National/MC Pebble/MC Torrey/MC PGA West.
  • Ryan Brehm: 38th Suncoast/9th Astara/32nd Panama/18th Abaco.
  • Branden Grace: 20th Riviera/34th Pebble/MC Waialae/8th DPWTC.
  • Viktor Hovland: 38th Pebble/MC TPC Scottsale/23rd Dubai/MC Abu Dhabi.
  • Martin Trainer: 28th Pebble/MC PGA West/MDF Waialae/MC RSM Classic.
  • D.A. Points: 39th Pebble/MC Torrey/66th PGA West/45th RSM Classic.
  • Tony Finau: 43rd Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/MC PGA National/MC Riviera/MC TPC Scottsdale.
  • Alex Cejka: MC PGA National/67th Riviera/34th Pebble/MC Torrey Pines/15th PGA West.
  • Chesson Hadley: 24th PGA National/MC Riviera/10th Pebble/MC Torrey/MC PGA West.
  • Scott Brown: 7th Colombia/3rd Panama/30th Pebble/MC Disney/20th Sea Island.
  • George McNeill: MC Honda/49th Riviera/MC Pebble/33rd TPC Scottsdale/49th PGA West.
  • Michael Bradley: MC PGA National/MC Rivera/MC Pebble/MC Torrey/15th PGA West.
  • Derek Lamely: 73rd PGA National/MC El Camaleon/MC Pebble/42nd Torrey/18th PGA West.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Brice Garnett; 2) Henrik Norlander; 3) Chan Kim; 4) Bud Cauley; 5) Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen; 6) Niklas Norgaard; 7) Adrien Dumont de Chassart; 8) Chad Ramey; 9) Joseph Bramlett; 10) Alejandro Tosti.

Puerto Rico Open Winners & Prices: 2024: Garnett 150/1; 2023: Echavarria 125/1; 2022: Brehm 70/1; 2021: Grace 20/1; 2020: Hovland 12/1F; 2019: Trainer 125/1; 2017: Points 175/1; 2016: Finau 50/1; 2015: Cejka 125/1; 2014: Hadley 50/1; 2013: Brown 50/1; 2012: McNeill 55/1; 2011: Bradley 135/1; 2010: Lamely 110/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 75/1; Overall Average: 89/1.

Historical Weather:

  • 2024: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind variable 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSE 7-14 mph. Saturday: Hot and humid. High of 89. Wind SW 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 77. Wind NW 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph.
  • 2023: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 84. Wind ENE 8-14 mph Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind E 12-16 mph, gusting to 24 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 84. Wind E 12-18 mph, gusting to 28 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 84. Wind E 10-16 mph, gusting to 24 mph.
  • 2022: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 84. Wind ENE 8-14 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 83. Wind ENE 10-15 mph, gusting to 22 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with afternoon showers. High of 84. Wind ENE 12-16 mph, gusting to 22 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with afternoon showers. High of 83. Wind ENE 15-20 mph, gusting to 28 mph.
  • 2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind ENE 17-23 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind ENE 17-23 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with passing showers. High of 84. Wind ENE 18-24 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Due to a series of short, but heavy downpours, there were three suspensions, totalling 56 minutes: 3:35-3:47 p.m., 4:02-4:20 p.m. and 4:45-5:11 p.m. Players remained in place for the first two delays, but had the option to move to an indoor location for the final delay. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind ENE 20-25 mph, gusting to 30 mph.
  • 2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. E wind 15-25 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 77. Wind E 6-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 84. Wind ESE 8-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 84. Wind ENE 5-10 mph.
  • 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with isolated showers. High of 84. Wind E 15-25, with gusts to 30 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy, with isolated showers. High of 84. Wind E 10-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 83. Wind ENE 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 83. Wind ENE 10-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.
  • 2017: Thursday: Scattered showers throughout the day, with a high of 82. Wind E 7-12 mph. Due to heavy rain, round one was suspended for the day at 5:06 p.m. and resumed Friday at 7 a.m. Friday: Scattered showers throughout the day, with a high of 84. Wind E 10-15 mph. Due to heavy rain, play was suspended from 11:35 a.m. until 1:30 p.m. Due to rain and impending darkness, round two was suspended for the day at 6:21 p.m. Saturday: Due to heavy rain, play was suspended for 12 minutes, from 11:51 a.m. until 12:03 p.m. Scattered showers throughout the day, with a high of 81. Wind ESE 8-12 mph. Sunday: Partly sunny in the morning, giving way to clouds and scattered showers in the afternoon. Due to expected inclement weather, round four tee times were between 7:30 a.m. and 9:30 a.m. in threesomes off split tees. High of 85. Wind ESE 7-12 mph.
  • 2016: Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid-80s. Wind ENE at 15-25 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny with temperatures in the mid-80s. ENE wind at 15-25 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with the high reaching the mid-80s. Wind ENE at 10-20 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-80s. ENE wind at 10-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph.
  • 2015: Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid-80s. Wind ENE at 15-25 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny with temperatures in the mid-80s. ENE wind at 15-25 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with the high reaching the mid-80s. Wind ENE at 10-20 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-80s. ENE wind at 10-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Rico Grande, Puerto Rico is here.

We should be greeted by softer conditions at Grand Reserve CC this year, and as ever expect soft, watered, receptive greens. Naturally in Puerto Rico more rain cannot be ruled out across the week. Scoring by the coast is always dictated by wind levels and for 2025 it looks similar to last year. 8-15 mph easterly winds are on the light side for this tournament. Temperatures as ever here will be 27 degrees Celsius – 81 Fahrenheit.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Sony Open in Hawaii which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Garrick Higgo; 2) Steven Fisk; 3) Santiago de la Fuente; 4) Norman Xiong; 5) Rico Hoey; 6) Anders Albertson / Alejandro Tosti; 8) Ricky Castillo; 9) Carson Young; 10) Niklas Norgaard; 11) Adam Schenk / Danny Willett; 13) Brice Garnett / Ben Kohles; 15) Takumi Kanaya; 16) Quade Cummins / Kevin Roy; 18) Ryan Gerard; 19) Blades Brown; 20) Justin Hastings; 21) William Mouw; 22) Kevin Velo; 23) K.H. Lee / Jeremy Paul; 25) James Hahn.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Justin Hastings; 2) Niklas Norgaard; 3) Joseph Bramlett / Karl Vilips; 5) Adam Svensson; 6) David Lipsky; 7) Camilo Villegas; 8) Henrik Norlander; 9) Antoine Rozner; 10) Ricky Castillo; 11) Ryan Gerard / Thomas Rosenmueller; 13) Lanto Griffin / Chan Kim; 15) Blades Brown / Hayden Springer; 17) Bud Cauley / Chad Ramey; 19) Jonathan Byrd / Rikuyu Hoshino; 21) Adrien Dumont de Chassart / Matteo Manassero; 23) Rico Hoey; 24) Philip Knowles; 25) Trey Mullinax / Kevin Roy / Matt Wallace.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Garrick Higgo; 2) Ben Pollard; 3) Jonathan Byrd; 4) Matthew NeSmith; 5) Norman Xiong; 6) Matteo Manassero; 7) Bud Cauley / Brice Garnett; 9) Danny Willett; 10) Matt Wallace; 11) Pierceson Coody; 12) Danny Walker; 13) Aaron Baddeley; 14) Philip Knowles; 15) Adam Svensson; 16) Mason Anderson; 17) Will Chandler / Carl Yuan; 19) Adrien Dumont de Chassart / Bill Haas; 21) Takumi Kanaya / Hayden Springer; 23) Alejandro Tosti; 24) Steven Fisk / David Lipsky.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Justin Hastings; 2) Niklas Norgaard; 3) Norman Xiong; 4) Bud Cauley; 5) Adam Svensson; 6) Garrick Higgo; 7) Steven Fisk; 8) Joseph Bramlett; 9) Brice Garnett; 10) Ricky Castillo; 11) Ryan Gerard / Kevin Roy; 13) Henrik Norlander; 14) Rico Hoey / Danny Willett; 16) Bill Haas / Camilo Villegas; 18) Matt Wallace; 19) Hayden Springer; 20) David Lipsky; 21) Danny Walker; 22) Adrien Dumont de Chassart; 23) Pierceson Coody / Lanto Griffin / Thomas Rosenmueller / Karl Vilips.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Kevin Tway; 2) James Hahn; 3) Justin Hastings; 4) Jonathan Byrd / Brandt Snedeker; 6) Carl Yuan; 7) Adam Schenk; 8) Matthew NeSmith; 9) Ben Kohles / Niklas Norgaard; 11) Brice Garnett / Scott Piercy; 13) Braden Thornberry; 14) Adrien Dumont de Chassart; 15) Ryan Gerard / Kaito Onishi; 17) Quade Cummins; 18) Taylor Montgomery / Jeremy Paul / Davis Riley; 21) Paul Peterson; 22) Bud Cauley / Trey Mullinax; 24) Wesley Bryan / Takumi Kanaya / Matteo Manassero.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Justin Hastings; 2) Ryan Gerard; 3) Adrien Dumont de Chassart; 4) Brice Garnett / James Hahn; 6) Adam Schenk; 7) Niklas Norgaard; 8) Garrick Higgo; 9) Bud Cauley; 10) Jonathan Byrd; 11) Ben Kohles; 12) Kevin Tway; 13) Lanto Griffin; 14) Brandt Snedeker; 15) Scott Piercy / Hayden Springer; 17) Norman Xiong; 18) Ricky Castillo / Quade Cummins / Chan Kim / Matteo Manassero / Jeremy Paul; 23) Blades Brown / Kevin Roy; 25) Takumi Kanaya / Taylor Montgomery / Camilo Villegas / Danny Walker.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Puerto Rico Open winners since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this coastal test:

  • 2024, Brice Garnett (-19). 293 yards (20th), 57.1% fairways (42nd), 76.4% greens in regulation (10th), 100.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.75 putts per GIR (46th).
  • 2023, Nico Echavarria (-21). 316 yards (7th), 42.9% fairways (56th), 77.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 68.8 % scrambling (27th), 1.64 putts per GIR (5th).
  • 2022, Ryan Brehm (-20). 308 yards (2nd), 53.6% fairways (41st), 73.6% greens in regulation (11th), 94.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th).
  • 2021, Branden Grace (-19). 289 yards (27th), 57.1% fairways (39th), 79.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 73.3 % scrambling (22nd), 1.70 putts per GIR (18th).
  • 2020, Viktor Hovland (-20). 291 yards (14th), 71.4% fairways (23rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (8th), 81.3 % scrambling (6th), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2019, Martin Trainer (-14). 307 yards (7th), 51.8% fairways (62nd), 75.0% greens in regulation (4th), 66.7 % scrambling (32nd), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2017, D.A. Points (-20). 288 yards (52nd), 83.9% fairways (1st), 88.9% greens in regulation (1st), 62.5 % scrambling (52nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (9th).
  • 2016, Tony Finau (-12). 291 yards (23rd), 60.7% fairways (40th), 70.8% greens in regulation (19th), 85.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.79 putts per GIR (37th).
  • 2015, Alex Cejka (-7). 280 yards (26th), 73.2% fairways (8th), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.8 % scrambling (16th), 1.77 putts per GIR (28th).
  • 2014, Chesson Hadley (-21). 290 yards (26th), 67.9% fairways (29th), 80.6% greens in regulation (6th), 64.3 % scrambling (45th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2013, Scott Brown (-20). 301 yards (7th), 71.4% fairways (15th), 68.1% greens in regulation (62nd), 65.2% scrambling (47th), 1.55 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2012, George McNeill (-16). 279 yards (31st), 64.3% fairways (49th), 77.8% greens in regulation (5th), 50.0% scrambling (42nd), 1.70 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2011, Michael Bradley (-16). 293 yards (43rd), 64.3% fairways (24th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 61.5% scrambling (22nd), 1.75 putts per GIR (20th).
  • 2010, Derek Lamely (-19). 283 yards (11th), 50.0% fairways (66th), 72.2% greens in regulation (32nd), 80.0% scrambling (6th), 1.62 putts per GIR (3rd).

Tournament Skill Averages:

  • Driving Distance: 21st, Driving Accuracy: 35th, Greens in Regulation: 12th, Scrambling: 23rd, Putting Average 13th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how Grand Reserve sets-up plus what skill sets they favour:

Brice Garnett (2024): “It’s been a great week so far. Battled some pretty good winds out there this afternoon, so I’m really proud of the round today. Short game has been excellent so far and really taking advantage of the par 5s. That’s kind of what I focus on mostly every week and this week it’s working out.

Yeah, I was working with my coach John Tillery last week and I told him this is my Augusta right now, but it is. This is my week to get in the shuffle and maybe get a few more events sometime later in the year. Came in motivated, came in with my game sharp and it’s paying off. Going into the back nine, I just did my best to try to commit to hitting good putts. It’s still a factor, it’s just fortunate that I was on the right side of it on the back nine and kind of on the wrong side of it on the front.

Gosh, I just wanted to play a different playoff hole. I got tired of watching him hit it so far down the middle of the fairway and then I had to lay up every time. We just stuck to our game plan. We just, we stuck to our game plan. I was right there around 300 yards to the front of the green every playoff hole and that’s just too far for me to try to push a 3-wood up there. So I just continued to lay up to a really good wedge number. I hit some really good wedges in there. 

The wind was definitely something that’s challenging every time we come here, but it’s something I always look forward to. I grew up playing in a lot of wind and it’s the reason that I really love to come play in the Puerto Rico Open. Yeah, it was a good challenge this week.”

Nico Echavarria (2023): “You never think you’re going to shoot 6 under on the front nine the third round, so I knew it had to be a low one because he had a big lead. I gave myself some really good chances on the front nine, putter was hot. The back nine, how I said, it plays a little harder, some shots into the wind that are uncomfortable, some tee shots. But I’m happy with the back nine finishing strong. Obviously not birdieing 18 feels like you lost a shot, but overall it’s not a comfortable tee shot left to right with hazard on the left, so I’m happy with how I finished.

With the way I was playing the last couple weeks, at Honda, that course is really hard but I missed the cut by 8 or 9. At Pebble I missed it by a lot. You just, you just don’t think it’s going to get better until things like this week clicks and finding something on the range on Friday just changes your week.  I think like if I wouldn’t have had that practice session on Friday afternoon very late and found what I found, I don’t think I would be here because it cleared my mind up. I was thinking too many things, I was on a bad spot mentally before coming to this week.”

Ryan Brehm (2022): “Yeah on 18, the wind was helping. It was down off the left and I just kind of aim a little bit right on that hole and try to rip it really and I got it working with the wind and I got it down there I think good 235 front. It’s kind of a guessing game out of these fairways to get the right numbers downwind, but we got a pretty good guess, I suppose. We hit a 5-iron to, I don’t know, 30 feet left and made the putt.

“Yeah, you know, I have to really thank, this victory wouldn’t have happened without the first four events on the Korn Ferry Tour for me this year. And it’s so difficult out there. It doesn’t get the notoriety quite like the PGA Tour, but my goodness, there’s some great players and difficult conditions, difficult golf courses and it really prepares you to come out here and have some success. So this victory wouldn’t have happened without those first four starts.”

Branden Grace (2021): “Coming here, I didn’t really know what to expect, but the golf course is great. I think they’ve really played it safe so far. And the wind has been consistent. But I feel, Anirban and I actually spoke on the golf course, even with this 15-20-mile-an-hour wind, it still feels like it’s gettable out there. You can make some birdies and give yourself some chances.”

And knowing what the golf course is going to offer. When I got here, it was firm, it was breezy. And that’s what the locals said it’s going to be like this the whole week. So I love playing in the windy conditions. I see the shots. I love feeding the shots, and things like that, and really moving the ball out there And I just played some flawless golf this week.

Viktor Hovland (2020): Weather’s been nice. It’s been pretty windy, which I’m kind of used to in Oklahoma. I feel like the wind is blowing out of the same direction here every day, so I think we’ll see the course playing very similar to the first couple days. I’m sure the pins are going to be a little more tucked in the corners the next two days, so it will be interesting to see how it plays.

I played really well today, kind of the same round as the last two, just been playing really solid off the tee and been hitting a lot of really good iron shots into the greens. Early on in the round I didn’t really make that many putts, but I did a really good job of just staying calm. Thankfully on the back nine I started making a couple putts and got me going.

Sunday: “Yeah, it was very up and down, like the first five, six holes we played, you know, almost like yesterday, a little less wind, it was pretty ripe for scoring. Then the wind started swirling coming out of the other direction where it was suddenly into the wind on No. 8, which makes that hole a lot harder. And then obviously from there on in you had a lot of rain, wind and it was switching back and forth. So it really, it played a lot harder than it did the other three days.”

Martin Trainer (2019): “Yeah. I mean, to a certain extent, I think you have to be able to play in the wind to make it here. But  I think this course suits me more because it’s just a long bomber’s course, so I can hit a lot of drivers and try to get as far down there as I can and not worry about hitting one too far offline. So I think that’s been a big benefit

This golf course, actually I was talking about it with Ryan, my caddie, it reminds make a lot of this golf course I played at in Mexico on the Latinoamerica Tour in Mazatlan. It looks just like it. It’s wide open, windy. It really is like a replica of this golf course. So I thought about that I won at that golf course and we were talking about it all week how this is just, you know, a carbon copy of that course and how we have good vibes going into this week. I’m just happy it worked out.”

D.A. Points (2017): “You know, that was always a strong suit of my game and then when I went to try to make some changes in 2014, it went to the worst part of my game. That just goes to show how silly I felt for trying to change things, but I wanted to get better. To come back and to be so calm and comfortable, and this golf course, you have to drive it straight. It can be kind of demanding on some tee shots and to be able to hit some really quality tee shots today under the gun gives me a lot of confidence.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Paspalum PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 2 – Brice Garnett.
  • 1 – Ryan Brehm, Chesson Hadley, George McNeill, Chad Ramey, Matt Wallace.

As we can see, winners here can come from different ends of the betting market. Branden Grace in 2021 was a 20/1 chance, as he delivered an eagle/birdie finish to edge-out Jhonattan Vegas (40/1) by a single shot. Viktor Hovland won this in 2020 as the 12/1 favourite, beating 150/1 Josh Teater with a spectacular birdie from distance to again win by a single shot.

Prior to Branden who captured his 14th global title here and the prodigious young talent of Viktor, winners of the Puerto Rico Open tended to be from the juicy mid-price or even bigger. I suppose that is logical when you remember how hard it is to triumph on the PGA Tour, it’s hardly surprising that the market leaders, who know they are in half-decent nick form-wise, when thrust into the uncomfortable position of favouritism inevitably crack. Others though see these second-tier PGA Tour events as a real opportunity – after all, a full 2-year exemption on the Tour, a trip to The Sentry and a decent haul of OWGR points is not to be sniffed at.

Winners here have either been younger players who’ve had a solid grounding in the Korn Ferry Tour or, in the case of Brice Garnett, Ryan Brehm, D.A. Points, Alex Cejka and George McNeill, experienced players who knew how to shoot low scores in warmer climes.

Both defending champion Garnett and Brehm, were playing Korn Ferry Tour golf prior to winning this. Garnett had missed a couple of cuts and finished 51st in Colombia (Astara), prior to arriving in Puerto Rico – which he had built-up to be his “Augusta National.” Motivated, he grabbed the riches on offer, including a 2 year winner’s exemption on the Tour until the end of 2026.

Brehm played 4 early season Korn Ferry events prior to his 70/1 win here. He had made 4 cuts including 18th at the Abaco (Bahamas) and 9th at the Astara (Colombia) highlighting a player who had played well recently in similar geographical climes at a slightly lower level – remember this is an alternate event.

Points won here coming off a 39th at Pebble Beach based upon limited status PGA Tour outings. He hadn’t finished in the top 10 of a PGA Tour event for 3 and a half years. Veteran Alex Cejka in 2015 had never won on the PGA Tour and his immediate form read MC-67-34-MC. George McNeill won in 2012 and his form read MC-49-MC-33-49-19. I never told you this was going to be easy!

On the younger side, Nico Echavarria had only played in 10 PGA Tour events within his rookie season before he won this. His best finish from his 2 made cuts was 12th at the Sony Open – and his inbound form post Waialae Country Club was MC-MC-MC-MC. 125/1 in this strength of field highlights where Echavarria ranked in the thinking pre-event.

Martin Trainer in 2019 arrived off a 28th place finish at Pebble Beach. Prior to that he had finished MC-MDF in his limited 2019 outings. Tony Finau in 2016 had finished 43rd at Bay Hill the week before arriving here, which had been preceded by 4 straight Missed Cuts. But Finau in 2015 had defined himself with 4 top-10 finishes in his rookie season including 10th at the PGA Championship. With Hovland, Finau and arguably Grace, you could argue they were the best player in the field, who actually went on to win.

Chesson Hadley in 2014 was similar to Finau having shown a level of pedigree: in his rookie season he’d already finished 5th at the Shriners Open in only his 4th PGA Tour start and was 10th at Pebble and 24th at PGA National in the immediate build-up to his 50/1 triumph here in Puerto Rico. 2013 saw web.com player Scott Brown coming off some great early season form in Central America to take the title here on a course where he’d finished 5th 12 months earlier.

Game-wise, I’m looking for a player who gets the ball out there 295 yards and who can take advantage of the birdie opportunities that are available on the short par-4s and the par-5s. A player who converts when aggressively Going for the Green has always been an important part of the winners here in recent times.

My Final Puerto Rico Open tips are as follows:

Matt Wallace 1.5pts EW 40/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Matt Wallace has to be a danger in this weak Puerto Rico Open field.

A 6-time Main Tour winner who landed the alternate 2023 Corales Championship PGA Tour title on a coastal, long, Par 72, Paspalum-grassed golf course in the Dominican Republic. Wallace currently sits in the Team Europe Ryder Cup qualification rankings having finished 8th at the British Masters, 1st at the European Masters, 3rd at the Abu Dhabi Championship and 11th at the DP World Tour Championship. In this field I’d only place Niklas Norgaard on the same pedestal class-wise as he’s very much in the Team Europe Ryder Cup qualification race after his British Masters win and top-7 finishes across the Dubai Desert Classic and BMW PGA Championship. But as Norgaard is pretty much half the odds and still acclimatising to life on the PGA Tour, I’ll take Wallace instead.

44th at the Phoenix Open, Wallace has missed the cut at both the Mexico Open and Cognizant Classic, but for a player whose form turns on a sixpence, Matt’s performance at PGA National was interesting last week. He missed the cut on the number, but his Friday -5/66 was T7 best score of the day. Plus when you look at his full-field, raw Strokes Gained numbers at PGA National he ranked 5th for Off the Tee and 10th for Tee to Green. A Thursday -4.36 Strokes Gained Putting display (worst in the field) ultimately killed Matt, but even the putter warmed on Friday nailing a couple of 20 foot putts for Birdie.

Motivated and undoubtedly uplifted after his Cognizant Classic Friday, we know Wallace has previous when it comes to winning weak opposite-field events on the PGA Tour.

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Ricky Castillo 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Ricky Castillo gets my investment this week for a second time this season. I tipped him at the Mexico Open a fortnight ago, where he finished 55th. The 23 year-old University of Florida graduate has had a rapid rise up the golf ladder, winning the Korn Ferry Tour 2023 Wichita Open on his professional debut, and just over 18 months later he finds himself as full PGA Tour member. His 2024 Korn Ferry Tour season was interesting for this as he landed 5th at the Panama Championship, 7th at the Astara Championship, 13th at the Argentina Open and 5th at the Chile Classic, all overseas.

Now a PGA Tour rookie, his first 5 events have gleaned a 43rd (The American Express), 15th (Farmers Insurance Open), 55th (Mexico Open) and 56th (Cognizant Classic). Long – top 20 for Driving Distance – and relatively straight – top 70 for Driving Accuracy, it won’t surprise you to read that he ranks around the top 10 on Tour for Total Driving. High level driving this week should unlock opportunities on this Grand Reserve Country Club course and Castillo ranks in the top 35 for Proximity to Hole. We just need a positive week with the putter.

9th for Total Driving and 7th for Ball Striking around the tough Torrey pines South Course last time out, I think that Ricky will like the wide open set-up this week.

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Alejandro Tosti 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Alejandro Tosti is super inconsistent – hence his price – but his upside compared to most in this field is extremely high. A PGA Tour Americas background appeals for obvious reasons, 2 wins in his Argentine homeland plus a 3rd in Colombia, but Tosti has plenty of top 10 finishes in on the PGA Tour since May 2023 when he finished 10th at the Mexico Open on Paspalum greens – playing then as a Korn Ferry Tour member.

2024 saw him finish 2nd at the Houston Open played at Memorial Park and saw Alejandro mixing it with the likes of World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Billy Horschel, Max Greyserman and winner Stephan Jaeger. 9th at the Shriners Open saw Tosti in 3rd spot heading into Sunday – banging heads with Harris English, Kurt Kitayama, Davis Thompson, Gary Woodland and winner J.T. Poston. All in all, better sorts than we are seeing this week in Puerto Rico.

3 pay cheques from his last 4 PGA Tour appearances include an eye-catching 10th place at the Mexico Open a fortnight ago where the Argentine was in contention throughout, ranking from a Strokes Gained perspective 7th for Off the Tee, 17th for Approach and 2nd for Tee to Green.

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Adrien Dumont de Chassart 1pt EW 50/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

I can remember Adrien Dumont de Chassart and Ludvig Aberg playing the 2023 Czech Masters on the DP World Tour. Both were bright new Team Europe talents after Aberg had started well on the PGA Tour and ADDC had started his Korn Ferry Tour career with 5 consecutive top-8 finishes, including a win at the BMW Charity Pro-Am. Both arrived in the Czech Republic with similar odds – Aberg finished 4th, Dumont de Chassart missed the cut, and the 2 players have taken different paths from that point forward.

I still rate ADDC though.  His first year in 2025 was a struggle on the PGA Tour, but the Belgian finished 6th here at Grand Reserve Country Club, before finishing the season strongly with 3rd at the Bermuda Championship and 25th at the RSM Classic. It didn’t earn him full top 125 playing privileges, but highlighted his talent and the fact he’s becoming accustomed to the top Tour.

Early 2025 has seen a mix of the DP World Tour and Korn Ferry with 24th in Bahrain and 8th in Qatar eye-catching as both were played on Paspalum grass. 16th last week in the Argentina Open saw the 25 year-old shoot 64-66 across Friday and Saturday, with ADDC 9th heading into Sunday.

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Robby Shelton 1pt EW 80/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

The Puerto Rico Open has often seen winners come from stints playing the Korn Ferry Tour. Scott Brown in 2022 springs to mind from back in the day and you can add 2 of the last 3 champions to the list namely Ryan Brehm (2022) and defending champion Brice Garnett. Brehm arrived here off Korn Ferry form of 38-9-32-18 landing his win at best price 70/1. “The Prince of Paspalum” arrived in Rio Grande with Korn Ferry form of 51-MC-MC – it won’t surprise you to read he was an unloved 150/1 chance.

Robby Shelton, like ADDC above, never made the top 125 last season, but a late surge saw the Alabama 29 year-old grab partial 126-150 status, hence his start this week and at weaker PGA Tour tournaments throughout 2025. A 4-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, 3 of which came in South Carolina and Tennessee, it’s not surprising that Robby prefers Bermudagrass and he’s fine with Paspalum. 6th at El Camaleon in 2019 highlights that as does 5th in his second last start at the Great Abaco Classic played on the coastal, Par 72 at The Abaco Club on Winding Bay, which features SeaDwarf Paspalum greens.

That Paspalum form is included across 2025 Korn Ferry starts of 33-5-31 with the 31st also coming at Ocean Club Golf Course at the Atlantis which features Paspalum from tee to green (TifEagle Bermudagrass greens). 33rd in Colombia featured 3 rounds in the 60s. We are totally blind on statistics, but Robby has course experience from a 52nd in 2020, which featured an opening -4/68.

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