Qatar Masters Tips 2020

The argument for bypassing the top of this week’s betting market is much the same as last week with Thomas Pieters (MC) and Martin Kaymer (10^th) both failing to secure a return for each-way punters in Oman. Of course Kaymer’s finish looks the more impressive and continues a sequence of 4 top-20 results over his last 4 starts, however I’m still wary of his ability to convert at the business end of proceedings given that he hasn’t won for nearly 6 years now.

Bobby MacIntyre will undoubtedly win something eventually given his talent, however the reward won’t be great and 22/1 this week is no bargain; likewise Matthias Schwab, at a few points longer, has the talent to win on the European Tour, however to date it hasn’t happened and his supporters must be running low on patience given the prices on offer about the Austrian.

Joost Luiten was tempting given that he found his iron game last week in Oman before fading, however I’m starting this week’s team with Haotong Li who must be buoyed by the winning performances of some of his Presidents Cup teammates over the past few weeks.

Since narrowly losing to Team USA in Melbourne back in December, Cameron Smith, Marc Leishman, Adam Scott and Sungjae Im have all won on the PGA Tour from the Internationals and with Abraham Ancer and Hideki Matsuyama both having impressed in recent weeks, perhaps that statistic will continue to grow. This side of the Atlantic, Haotong Li is the best chance of that sequence of winners extending and given a relatively weak field here this week, perhaps he’ll get that win sooner rather than later and complete a personal hat-trick of European Tour titles.

A missed cut on his only attempt at the Qatar Masters back in 2017 is of lesser consequence given the change in venue; instead I’m happy to look at his win in the Middle East at the Dubai Desert Classic as close enough tangible form on a track here that I suspect will play far more like The Emirates than Doha Golf Club.

Since the Presidents Cup, the 24 year-old has been inconsistent with finishes of 41/MC/21/MC/18, but within those better weeks there’s been enough to encourage an investment this week. In Abu Dhabi, on his way to 41^st place, he ranked 6^th for Driving Accuracy and 3^rd for Putting; 21^st in Saudi was fuelled primarily by a 6^th place effort in terms of GIR; and 18^th last week in Oman was achieved predominantly as a result of his 3^rd place performance on the Paspalum greens.

That final point is interesting as he’s got previous on these types of putting surface, having led the field for putting in Saudi last year when finishing runner-up to Dustin Johnson. With his game progressing nicely and a course that should suit this week, I’m excited to see how Li performs here. RESULT: MC

As frustrating as it was to see Brandon Stone miss out in the play-off last week in Oman, in truth he didn’t do a massive amount wrong and I’m happy to stick with him one more week here.

The emotional rollercoaster that saw him nail a long putt from the fringe on the 72^nd hole to take the outright lead, only to see Sami Valimaki impressively convert his birdie putt on the same hole from outside of 20 feet must have been immense, however he looked calm and controlled in the play-off before misjudging his approach on the 3^rd playoff hole in the wind and allowing his playing partner to (just about) make his par putt and take the title.

Disappointment can lead to two conceivable extremes this week with a tailed-off missed cut quite possible, or a redemption victory also possible – plus of course a multitude of scenarios between those two. Let’s be positive though, he tweeted after Sunday’s play-off, “Well it may not be the result we were after, but it’s a performance I’m incredibly proud of,” and let’s be honest, on another day Valimaki wouldn’t have made birdie on the last, or Stone’s 12-footer on the 2^nd play-off hole finds the bottom of the cup, and everything changes. As I said, he did little wrong.

The 26 year-old talked again about his health and fitness regime which is helping him to maintain his A game for a prolonged period of time and with incoming form now reading 10/2 over the past fortnight perhaps the best is yet to come. 1^st for Total Driving and 1^st for Ball-Striking last week in Oman was impressive and it will only take the odd extra putt or two to drop this week and he could be walking away with his 4^th European Tour title. RESULT: T44

With a similar field playing in similar conditions and on similar greens this week, it’s not inconceivable that we see a very similar result to last week’s Oman Open, and if that’s the case then who’s to say that Sami Valimaki can’t follow up his maiden success immediately?

Undoubtedly some punters will contest that the value has disappeared with the talented Finn now a third of last week’s price following his victory. Mathematically that opinion is impossible to argue against as his price has indeed dropped markedly, however we saw recently on the PGA Tour with Brendan Todd that players who’ve just found top form shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand, and some can and do win again immediately.

The 21 year-old could be excused for taking his foot off the accelerator, however in what will be just his 7^th European Tour start this week perhaps he’ll be keen to follow the likes of Thomas Pieters and Jeunghun Wang who have followed their maiden win with another victory on their very next start in relatively recent times.

The Nokia lad won 4 times on the Pro Golf Tour last year, 2 of which were in consecutive weeks, to suggest that once he finds that winning formula he’s capable of maintaining his level, and if he continues to putt on these greens the way he did on last week’s Paspalum surfaces then who’s to say he won’t push immediately for another win here this week? RESULT: T38

We got chance to see the vast majority of this week’s field in action last week and whilst there were a few eye-catchers statistically, one that stood out to me was Fabrizio Zanotti.

Generally a strong tee-to-green exponent when he’s playing his best golf, the Paraguayan caught the eye with the putter last week in Oman, ranking 2^nd for putting average on the Paspalum greens on his way to a much-improved 25^th place finish after opening efforts of MC/MC/56 in 2020.

That flat stick performance on a very similar putting surface to this week shouldn’t have been a complete shock as he’s done well on the greens of Oman in the past, ranking 24^th and 13^th for putts per GIR on his previous 2 starts. Marry that to the long game performances that we saw in Spain (9^th for Driving Accuracy, 4^th for GIR), Turkey (5^th and 14^th on the same measures) and Saudi (13^th and 9^th) and we have a potentially potent combination.

Of course marrying all those elements together is easier said than done – hence the 3-figure price – however with Zanotti at least we know that he has the ability to close out a victory having twice won at European Tour level at the BMW International Open in 2014 and the Maybank Championship in 2017. With his latest exemption long gone, another victory would be just the ticket this week to sew up his card for the next couple of years.

Competitive course form for all players is non-existent as we know, however the 36 year-old’s last visit to Qatar produced a personal best when he finished 11^th at Doha Golf Club and with his game taking a step forward last week, perhaps he can improve on that and reward each-way backers here. RESULT: T28