It wasn’t to be for 90/1 selection Matti Schmid last week, despite leading for most of the final day and trading odds-on until an untimely bogey from the middle of the fairway on 16 with a wedge opened the door for Adrian Meronk. The silver lining for Schmid was that he assured himself of playing privileges for 2024 as a result of his effort, although that’s of little comfort to his backers of course.
With the PGA Tour taking a week’s break, the DP World Tour takes centre stage as the final full-field event of the season takes us to Qatar and a return to Doha Golf Club. With the Nedbank and DP World Tour Championship to conclude the 2022/23 season, this week presents the last viable opportunity for many to save their card and for others to get themselves into the closing big-money events.
132 players have assembled here in the Middle East, and in the absence of a headline name the market is pretty open. Alexander Bjork, Aaron Rai and Jordan Smith contest favouritism depending which bookie you use, with each available around the 20/1 mark at best. Rasmus Hojgaard and Yannik Paul follow in the betting as the pair look to secure a PGA Tour card for next season in what’s a wide open affair.
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Doha GC. Designer: Harradine, 1996; Course Type: Desert; Par: 72; Length: 7,466 yards; Water Hazards: 6; Fairways: Bermuda; Rough: Bermuda; Greens: Paspalum, 11’6″ on the stimp.
Course Overview. A new spot in the calendar for the Qatar Masters, but a thankful return to the Harradine-designed Doha Golf Club which had hosted this event since its inauguration in 1998, until the event moved to Education City in 2020 for 2 renewals before returning last year, giving us plenty of course history stats to review.
At 7,466 yards in length, the course has historically favoured longer hitters when conditions are tranquil; wayward drives aren’t punished as severely as other courses on the circuit with relatively thin rough, allowing the bombers to attack more freely. However the exposed layout is particularly susceptible to wind and even the most tranquil of forecasts in the region can still result in a fair breeze blowing over the track at times, which brings the more controlled ball-strikers into the mix.
The par-72 layout is a conventional pair of 9s with the outward 9 measuring 238 yards longer than the inward 9. The par-5s play amongst the easiest of the holes as you might expect with even the 659 yard 9th playing under par generally, however the driveable par-4 16th is also a birdie and eagle opportunity for most of the field.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Qatar Masters that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2022: Ewen Ferguson, 150/1; 2021: Antoine Rozner, 22/1; 2020: Jorge Campillo, 125/1; 2019: Justin Harding, 55/1; 2018: Eddie Pepperell, 70/1; 2017: Jeunghun Wang, 33/1; 2016: Branden Grace, 8/1; 2015: Branden Grace, 25/1; 2014: Sergio Garcia, 8/1; 2013: Chris Wood, 100/1; 2012: Paul Lawrie, 50/1; 2011: Thomas Bjorn, 200/1; 2010: Robert Karlsson, 66/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the Doha region in Qatar is here.
Clear skies and temperatures in the high-80s Fahrenheit will greet the players this week. The wind doesn’t appear to be as much of a feature here this year as some other renewals, with 5-10mph expected on each of the 4 tournament days, with maybe the odd gust a little higher in the afternoons.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the past 11 winners here at Doha gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2022: Ewen Ferguson. 297 yards (46th), 57.1% fairways (21st), 72.2% greens in regulation (14th), 65.0% scrambling (18th), 1.75 putts per GIR (10th).
2019: Justin Harding. 300 yards (31st), 53.6% fairways (20th), 69.4% greens in regulation (50th), 72.7% scrambling (13th), 1.72 putts per GIR (10th).
2018: Eddie Pepperell. 268 yards (77th), 67.9% fairways (3rd), 80.6% greens in regulation (16th), 71.4% scrambling (9th), 1.66 putts per GIR (9th).
2017: Jeunghun Wang. 292 yards (37th), 50% fairways (40th), 77.8% greens in regulation (26th), 68.8% scrambling (7th), 1.71 putts per GIR (15th).
2016: Branden Grace. 306 yards (6th), 46.4% fairways (44th), 76.4% greens in regulation (19th), 76.5% scrambling (3rd), 1.71 putts per GIR (4th).
2015: Branden Grace. 296 yards (9th), 48.2% fairways (61st), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 66.7% scrambling (23rd), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).
2014: Sergio Garcia. 300 yards (5th), 51.8% fairways (54th), 75.0% greens in regulation (32nd), 72.2% scrambling (12th), 1.72 putts per GIR (18th).
2013: Chris Wood. 297 yards (13th), 62.5% fairways (17th), 81.9% greens in regulation (6th), 53.8% scrambling (58th), 1.65 putts per GIR (3rd).
2012: Paul Lawrie. 300 yards (9th), 54.8% fairways (23rd), 79.6% greens in regulation (7th), 72.7% scrambling (6th), 1.63 putts per GIR (3rd).
2011: Thomas Bjorn. 288 yards (34th), 42.9% fairways (56th), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.8% scrambling (9th), 1.69 putts per GIR (5th).
2010: Robert Karlsson. 296 yards (15th), 57.1% fairways (49th), 77.8% greens in regulation (4th), 68.8% scrambling (11th), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th).
With the exception of Chris Wood in 2013, scrambling ranks are generally high here at Doha and that makes sense in an event where keeping a card as clean as possible is of paramount importance given that birdies aren’t that easy to come by.
The par 3s are the toughest element of the course in my opinion, so picking players with a strong mid-iron game is a positive. This venue is particularly susceptible to the wind, so siding with strong ball-strikers or those with a proven wind/coastal pedigree if the forecast suggests anything other than a flat calm week isn’t a bad move either
Incoming Form: It’s worth noting that all Qatar Masters winners featured in the analysis below had recorded at least one top-13 finish in their previous 7 starts, and if you isolate the events here at Doha specifically, that can be refined to a top 10 or better.
Last year’s winner Ewen Ferguson follows that trend perfectly, despite his 150/1 price in the spring of 2022, having finished 8th at the Kenya Open 3 weeks before:
2012: Paul Lawrie: 48/1/27/34/36/69/MC/11/25/46/MC/19/
2011: Thomas Bjorn: MC/MC/23/9/33/60/8
2010: Robert Karlsson: 40/2/MC/25/5/15/22/60/37
A cursory look through the list of winners here screams links golf, which makes a level of sense given the often windswept nature of the course here at Doha, however a flat forecast may well negate that to a certain degree this week and play more into the hands of the aggressive types.
For me, some positive Middle East form is one element to look at, as is a smattering of recent form without the need for anything too spectacular. Those players who perform well on par 3s – the toughest part of this track as I’ve mentioned above – should also excel.
My selections are as follows:
Thorbjorn Olesen 2.5pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
With no standout favourite this week the bookies generally go 20/1 the field, however the conversion rates of the likes of Alexander Bjork, Aaron Rai and Jordan Smith leave a little to be desired when it comes to backing those at the very top of the market at relatively short prices.
Rasmus Hojgaard holds a little more appeal, however he’s not infallible when it comes to Sundays and with the added complication of a PGA Tour card within his grasp, I wonder if that will hinder the talented young Dane at the business end of proceedings should he find himself in the mix. In a wholly more comfortably position in that respect though we find his compatriot Thorbjorn Olesen who can play with a little less pressure as he looks to sew up his Stateside membership for 2024 with the 8th of 10 available cards currently in his possession.
A blistering start to 2023 that saw progressive finishes of 20th in Abu Dhabi, 16th in Dubai, and 4th in Ras Al Khaimah culminated in a victory in Thailand for what was the 33 year-old’s 7th title at DP World Tour level and his second in successive seasons, having won the 2022 British Masters. 6th at the Indian Open and 3rd at the Soudal Open followed as whispers of a Ryder Cup start started to become louder, however his form dropped off as the year progressed and he had to be content with watching the action from afar.
With the pressure off in that respect, it was no surprise to see his form take a step forward. 10th at the Open de France saw SG rankings of 4th for Off the Tee, 5th for Approach and 6th for Tee to Green, and he’s continued to demonstrate some good all-round form with finishes of 17th at the Spanish Open and 9th last week at the Andalucia Masters, results which prompted acknowledgment from the man himself on social media that his game’s in a pretty good place right now.
Olesen’s desert form overall is excellent with top 3 finishes in each of the three traditional desert swing events that used to be a staple part of the early season schedule. Form here at Doha in particular includes 3rd in 2014 and 2nd behind Branden Grace when he successfully defended his title in 2016, plus he finished 12th in the spring of last year coming off the back of a pair of missed cuts. In far better shape 18 months on, I could see Thunderbear adding another title to his collection here this week. RESULT: T9
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A cursory look through the DP World Tour history of Kalle Samooja makes interesting reading when it comes to his performances on desert tracks, and he demands some support this week despite missing the weekend at the Andalucia Masters.
5 cuts from 5 attempts at the Dubai Desert Classic and a best finish of 4th there in 2021 is a case in point, and he can back that record up with an 8th place finish at the Dubai Championship later that same year. 4th for SG Putting that week was positive in relation to this week’s test, and he went better still in that respect when leading the field with the flat stick when finishing 12th at the Emirates the following January. No surprise then that with his desert and topography links he’s also performed well in Qatar in the past, making 4 weekends from 4 attempts with a best finishes of 3rd at Education City in 2020 and 5th here at Doha last spring.
9th at the Italian Open, 4th at the Made in Himmerland and 9th most recently at the Spanish Open have put the 35 year-old in a position where, at 88th in the Race to Dubai, he can attack this week without any fear on a track that we know suits him very nicely. RESULT: T21
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Chase Hanna 1pt EW 90/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Matthieu Pavon proved in Madrid that ignoring the obvious current form/course form combination because the name doesn’t seem to fit the narrative can be a mistake, and I’ll take a chance on Chase Hanna repeating the feat here this week at a similar price point.
The American probably did just about enough last week by finishing 4th at the Andalucia Masters to ensure that he’ll be playing DP World Tour golf next year, elevating him 40 spots in the rankings and up to 105th with the provisional cut line at 116th. That said I suspect he won’t want to take any chances on that count and another positive result this week would rubber-stamp his card for 2024.
We’ve seen the 29 year-old back up a decent finish on the DP World Tour a couple of times in the past, firstly when he recorded back-to-back 6th place finishes at the Cazoo Open and Hero Open in 2021, before doing much the same last May with 6th at the British Masters followed by 4th at the Soudal Open in consecutive weeks. Even going back to his days at lower levels of golf his form tended to come in patches, so another prominent effort this week wouldn’t be a surprise. RESULT: MC
2nd here at Doha last March is the closest that Chase has got to breaking through at DP World Tour level and he took to the demands of the course nicely that week, ranking 3rd for SG Approach and 4th for SG Tee to Green when finishing a shot behind Ewen Ferguson. 3rd for SG Putting last week in Spain showed a different side to his game and if he can somehow knit that all together this week then he could seriously contend.
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Adri Arnaus 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
There’s always the risk when backing Adri Arnaus that he simply doesn’t turn up and misses the cut with barely a whimper, however when he gets it right he’s more than competitive a this level and the reward is typically strong, as it is again this week with 3-figure quotes available about the Spaniard,
I backed Arnaus in Madrid, hot on the heels of a personal best at the Dunhill Links, and although he did actually make the weekend it was another of those off weeks, particularly with his long game as he ranked 73rd for SG Off the Tee and 74th for SG Tee to Green from those who made the cut. That’s how he rolls.
It was interesting then that the Barcelona man, who celebrated his 29th birthday last week, improved considerably last week in Sotogrande – particularly from Off the Tee where he 9th for Strokes Gained on that count, his best effort in that respect for well over a year. 4th for Total Driving and 2nd for Ball Striking in old money was also eye-catching and he continues to putt well, ranking 6th for SG Putting and 3rd for Putts per GIR.
9th at last year’s DP World Tour Championship was followed by 13th at the Dubai Desert Classic and 6th at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship to suggest he’s more than comfortable in this neck of the woods, and 14th here on debut where he was 4th heading into the weekend and led the field for both SG Off the Tee and SG Tee to Green trumps his later efforts both here and at Education City, which may well have helped keep his price high. RESULT: MC
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Finally, there will undoubtedly be a fair amount of drama for those players around the bubble when it comes to retaining their cards this week and invariably someone manages to produce a suitably strong finish to create some headlines when push comes to shove. Sitting a place outside of the top 116, which is the provisional mark for playing rights retention, is Marc Warren and he could be this week’s surprise package.
The Scot has been here before of course, despite having won 4 times on Tour and as recently as 2020 when he secured the post-lockdown Austrian Open. Prior to that, 2018 saw him finish 130th in the Race to Dubai which meant a trip to Q-School and he’ll want to avoid that stress at all costs with a decent finish this week.
Despite his predicament, there have been some positive signs in the second half of the season to suggest that he could earn himself an 11th hour reprieve. 4th at the Made in Himmerland in July, on another course with linksy ties and form lines, rates as his best finish of the season, and he closed with a bogey-free round of 64 at Kingsbarns at the weather-affected Dunhill Links to suggest that there’s still some good golf left in him this season.
43rd last week in Sotogrande meant that he moved a solitary place closer to his Race to Dubai goal, however this week is where it really matters as he returns to a Doha course where he’d been in the mix with a round to go a couple of times early in his career, before finishing runner-up to Branden Grace in 2015. RESULT: MC
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