Ras al Khaimah Championship Tips

Bernd Wiesberger has stuck around for another week of action when many of his peers have flown home or to more lucrative climes, and as a result he rates as the clear favourite this week at 11/1.

12^th and 24^th from his two Rolex Series outings to start 2022 were solid, with a single destructive round in each which prevented him from a loftier finish on both outings. A stone cold putter last week didn’t help either, ranking 77^th for SG Putting of those who made the cut, and with scoring likely to be a little easier this week he’ll need to improve on that if he’s going to justify his short price.

A pair of missed cuts from the same two events for Robert Macintyre hardly gets the pulse racing and the likes of Adrian Meronk,  Jordan Smith and Romain Langasque have each been found out in the market due to their Challenge Tour form here at Al Hamra, combined with some positive efforts of late.

Of those in the top dozen or so in the market, the player who appeals the most and likely has the highest ceiling of them all is Rasmus Hojgaard. Now his twin Nicolai would undoubtedly have a thing or two to say about the statement, however at this point in their respective careers Rasmus leads the silverware count by 3 to 1 and has started 2022 in far more positive fashion, which gets him the nod here.

20^th and 47^th from his opening two efforts of 2022 isn’t as sparkling as others here, undoubtedly, but golf betting is never as easy as picking the guy with the most obvious incoming form. The 20 year-old’s breakthrough win in Mauritius in 2019 came after similar form reading 13/49 and he’s got the ability to take this event by the scruff of the neck at what is undoubtedly a step down in class versus the past fortnight.

That win in Mauritius shares topography and agronomy with this week’s test in RAK and 6^th place finishes in both Oman and Saudi would suggest that Paspalum grass is certainly not a weakness. Last week’s effort in Dubai was blighted by a negative performance on the newly-laid Bermuda TifEagle greens, so a return to Paspalum this week – he ranked 18^th for SG Putting the week before on similar surfaces in Abu Dhabi – can only help.

Further successes at The Belfry and in the Swiss Alps suggests that Rasmus is as versatile as he is talented and over the fullness of time I suspect we’ll see many wins on many styles of course, both sides of the Atlantic; for now though, accumulating trophies on these low-key events will have to suffice. RESULT: T42

I’ve backed Ryan Fox a fair bit in the past year or so and thus far he’s not rewarded my faith, however perhaps a little more patience will pay off this week given that his game seems to be trending at the start of 2022.

The Kiwi’s breakthrough win came at the World Super 6 in 2019 on a Perth track that’s a few miles inland and susceptible to the local trade winds, and he came closest to following that up at the Vic Open nearly exactly 2 years ago at 13th Beach which is, as the name would suggest, a coastal track. Ultimately that’s the point with Ryan – he tends to play his best golf on exposed tracks in the vicinity of the coast.

A couple of low-key local wins when he returned back home last April have to be taken with a pinch of salt given the opposition, however more significant and tangible form last year was evidenced from his 6th place finish at the high-class Saudi International, where he opened with a pair of 65s to lead heading into the weekend before dropping back a little.

That 6^th place finish in Saudi completed a 3-event form line of 6/27/6 on that short par 70 which is laid to Paspalum greens. An extra 2 par-5s per round here, assuming no 11^th hour changes to the scorecard from the Tour, should help a player who ranked 10^th for Par-5 Scoring for the full season in 2021. The drop in class should also help the 35 year-old.

61^st in Abu Dhabi shook off a little rust and he was much improved last week in Dubai, finishing 26^th overall with all long game pointers looking good from a Strokes Gained perspective. Ryan also has a 16^th place finish to his name here at Al Hamra from his 2016 Challenge Tour campaign and he could make good use of that experience here this week. RESULT: MC

Of the DP World Tour maidens in attendance this week, Kalle Samooja makes the most appeal at a backable each-way price.

3 attempts at Al Hamra on the Challenge Tour produced finishes of 24^th, 33^rd and 32^nd which in itself isn’t overly impressive; however the Finn has undoubtedly stepped up his game since that last effort in 2018 and has been knocking on the door of a breakthrough at the top level since that time.

6^th at the Kenya Open in 2019, a play-off defeat at Crans later that year, 3^rd in Qatar at the start of 2020, 9^th at the Scottish Open and 2^nd at the Cyprus Open in the same year, then 5 top-10 finishes in 2021 all point to a player on the cusp of stepping up and becoming a winner at this level. 4^th (Dubai Desert Classic) and 8^th (Dubai Championship) came a short way down the coast here and 3^rd (Tenerife Open) and 9^th (Canary Islands Championship) came on scoreable, coastal tests that should set him in good stead for this week.

7^th and 10^th for SG Putting on his two attempts at the Paspalum greens of Education City in Qatar would suggest a liking for these types of greens and 12^th at last week’s Dubai Desert Classic is another piece of positive Middle East form at a higher level than this week’s task. 68 to open and 69 on Saturday were both top-10 efforts on the day at the Emirates and he can keep that momentum going this week on a course that’s more familiar to him than most of the rest of this field. RESULT: MC

Costal golf appears to be Jeff Winther’s strongest suit and Al Hamra’s vistas of the Persian Gulf should appeal to the giant Dane.

3^rd at last year’s Gran Canaria Lopesan Open alerted a few eagle-eyed punters to Winther’s prowess with the sea in close proximity, and he backed that up in October when securing his breakthrough win at DP World Tour level at the Mallorca Golf Open. Strong approach play and strong putting was the key to both efforts with the former coming on Paspalum greens, and a repeat performance here this week would see him go very close to victory I suspect.

Developing the Paspalum angle a little further gives us more reason to suspect he’ll go well here at Al Hamra. 12^th at the Oman in Open in 2019 saw Jeff rank 5^th for putting on those similar putting surfaces, and 3^rd at the Qatar Masters the following year was also fuelled by 3^rd for SG Putting on the Paspalum Greens. Gran Canaria I’ve already mentioned (9^th for SG Putting) and then there’s his 6^th place finish a fortnight ago at Rolex Series level at Yas Links. Again, Paspalum was used from tee to green.

A missed cut last week has kept a lid on the 33 year-old’s price in this weaker affair, however Winther is also one of those in attendance with some positive experience of this track. 12^th here at the 2017 Ras al Khaimah Golf Challenge, Jeff was 4^th heading into the weekend before treading water over the final 2 days. Far more accomplished these days, I can see him going well this week on a course that suits. RESULT: T57

At a deeper price I’m taking a chance on a player who’s proven to be my Nemesis in the past, George Coetzee.

Backing the South African at short(ish) odds isn’t something I’m likely to get involved in any time soon, however with 3-figures available with a number of firms at the time of writing, the upside is high enough this week in view to add him to the team.

Of course, from the way I’m talking you’d expect his CV to be littered with near misses and little else, and that’s not strictly true. 12 Sunshine Tour wins, 4 of which were co-sanctioned with the European Tour at the time, plus a further success – and his most recent – at the 2020 Portugal Masters isn’t too shabby in the bigger scheme of things.

Of the wins not in his homeland, both that success at Vilamoura and his 2015 Mauritius Open victory hold relevance to this week’s test. Both exposed tracks with a coastal vibe, the grasses in Mauritius are a closer match to this week but I’m happy to take both as positive pointers for Al Hamra. Mid-teens under par seems to be a fair target for this week too given the events held here in the past and with all 5 career wins at this kind of level coming at between 13- and 19-under par, this week’s test should be right up George’s alley.

47^th last week in Dubai was a vast improvement on his 2022 opening effort in Abu Dhabi the week before, and a better Sunday last week could have seen the 35 year-old pushing a top-10 finish having sat in 23^rd place heading into the final day. The putter just about held things together last week and with Paspalum greens promising something a little more forgiving with approach shots this week, any improvement in greens found in regulation this week should provide an improvement in his overall position and potentially see him challenging the each-way positions. RESULT: T27