A conservative approach last week proved the right play in the end with the short-priced favourite Rory McIlroy eventually winning, as was always the risk. However with headline selection Adrian Meronk finishing just a shot back, the week has to go down as one of frustration. A mistake or two less over the 4 days from the big Pole and we’d undoubtedly have a different story to tell.
We move on nevertheless and after 2 weeks of fairly high-quality fields in Dubai, it’s back to Earth with a bump this week as the DP World Tour continues its early-season Middle East swing with a return to Ras Al Khaimah, which debuted on the Tour in 2022.
With the big names of the past fortnight mostly gone now that we’re back to normal, that’s left us with a fairly open market this week headed by Rasmus Hojgaard at 14/1, with Thorbjorn Olesen and Jordan Smith following quickly behind at 16/1 or thereabouts. 132 are pencilled in for this week in a regular 4 round, 65-man cut affair.
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Before we go into more detail and my final Ras Al Khaimah Championship tips, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as the golfing year kicks off. Welcome to you all and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, 6,200-strong private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Overview. Al Hamra Golf Club is this week’s venue and the Peter Harradine design stretches to 7,410 yards for its par of 72. Although new to the DP World Tour in 2022, Al Hamra hosted 3 events on the Challenge Tour between 2016-18 which form part of this week’s event stats and combined stats.
A regular 36/36 setup, the back 9 is longer than the front 9 and that makes the back 9 a tougher prospect with many of the best scoring opportunities coming in the first 8 holes. The Par-5s are all long without being excessively so at 576-607 yards; 3 sub-400 yard Par 4s also add to the scoring potential of a course that’s designed for the tourist trade primarily and allows for lots of birdies and eagles.
Set just off the coast of Ras al Khaimah, there’s definitely a coastal vibe about the track and the exposed fairways and desert surroundings are complimented by water hazards in the shape of lagoons on a number of holes for the errant. Paspalum grass has been used exclusively from tee to green.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Course Winners:
(DP World Tour).2023: Daniel Gavins (-17), 200/1; 2022, Ryan Fox (-22), 60/1; Nicolai Hojgaard (-24), 35/1.
(Challenge Tour).2018, Adri Arnaus (-17); 2017, Jens Dantorp (-15); 2016, Jordan Smith (-20).
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Ras al Khaimah is here.
The event should enjoy mild (mid-70s) and dry conditions throughout the 4 days. An early forecast which suggested wind may be a factor has all but dissipated, with Saturday’s 10-15mph the breeziest that it’s forecast to get during tournament play..
Tournament Trends & Key Factors.Although there are no stats available for the Challenge Tour events held here at Al Hamra, we do at least have the two Ras al Khaimah Championships and the Ras al Khaimah Classic held here to study:
(2023 Championship) Daniel Gavins. 302 yards (54th), 21.4% fairways (64th), 58.4% greens in regulation (49th), 70% scrambling (20th), 1.48 putts per GIR (1st).
(2022 Classic) Ryan Fox. 324 yards (9th), 28.6% fairways (60th), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 60% scrambling (70th), 1.55 putts per GIR (4th).
(2022 Championship) Nicolai Hojgaard. 332 yards (3rd), 23.2% fairways (72nd), 73.6% greens in regulation (7th), 68.4% scrambling (42nd), 1.63 putts per GIR (18th).
Length off the tee outweighed accuracy in 2022, with both winners seemingly bombing it where they liked and still putting themselves in position to hit greens and make birdies. Scrambling stats were generally high for the entire field, so bomb, gouge and putt would seem to be a viable route to success.
Daniel Gavins took a slightly different route to success 12 months ago – and a rather scenic route on the 72nd hole at that – with average drives 30 yards shorter than the previous two winners. Accuracy once again was of little significance with the Englishman’s putter proving to be a formidable weapon.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the 2 winners here in 2022 compiled their scores in a very similar fashion, whereas Daniel Gavins relied heavily on his performance on and around the greens to eventually get over the line:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
In 2022, both Fox and Hojgaard excelled from a SG Approach and SG Tee to Green perspective, with the Kiwi putting better than the Dane although he wasn’t so strong from off the tee.
A little further down the 2 leaderboards, SG Tee to Green is the most consistent statistic with Ross Fisher, who finished second to Ryan Fox, topping that stat in the Classic and strong ball-striker Jordan Smith finishing as Nicolai Hojgaard’s closest challenger the week before.
Looking at those who just failed to catch Daniel Gavins, SG Tee to Green once again sticks out with the next 9 players on the final leaderboard all ranking inside the top 16 on that count. As ever in this game, there’s always an exception to the rule.
Scoring Breakdown: Focussing on the same three players, we have the following breakdown in terms of their scoring:
Looking at 2022 first, a knee-jerk reaction looking at Nicolai Hojgaard’s 15-under total on the par-5s would be to assume that scoring on the long holes is the most critical factor, however he was an outlier in that respect with only 12 players hitting double-digits under par for the 5s. Haotong Li, Adrian Otaegui and Matthieu Pavon were each just 6-under for the long holes for their 3rd place finishes, so although you could argue that it was a decisive factor in actually winning the title, getting into contention wasn’t predicated on Par-5 scoring alone.
Ryan Fox’s win a week later backs this up, as the Kiwi was 8 shots worse on the long holes but excelled on the Par 4s, comfortably leading scoring on that statistic on the week, and perhaps on balance that’s the most likely path to success.
A slightly tougher renewal for scoring 12 months ago saw the par-5s feature as the most important holes, with Daniel Gavins co-leading that statistic at 11-under par and the leading 5 players averaging 10-under for the long holes. 27 birdies for Gavins once again underlines the requirement for birdie-making here.
Incoming Form. The incoming form of the 3 winners here at Al Hamra from the Challenge Tour days, plus the three winners at the DP World Tour level, suggests that some good recent form wouldn’t go amiss, as all five had recorded a top-8 finish in one of their last 9 starts:
As a 200/1 chance, Gavins’ form was probably the most tenuous although he had recorded a creditable 6th at the Dunhill Links in the autumn. 38th at the Dubai Desert Classic the previous week showed some promise though as he sat 11th after day 1 before dropping back.
Interestingly both of the 2022 winners here had missed their previous cut: Hojgaard had opened with a 77 the week before at The Emirates, meaning that an improved round of 72 on the Friday wasn’t enough to see him through to the weekend; Fox on the other hand shot 71/71 here at Al Hamra before finding his form on the same stretch of land a week later.
Our limited visits here have taught us that this resort course is very scoreable when conditions are tranquil, and the risk-reward nature of many of the key scoring holes means that fortune may well favour the brave. With little wind anticipated, I’m expecting another low-scoring affair this week where excellence in terms of SG Tee to Green, coupled with a compliant putter, should see the winner getting into the 20-under par region once again.
My selections are as follows:
Pablo Larrazabal 2pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
With the bulk of the big names having disappeared after a fortnight in Dubai, we’re left with a much more regular-looking DP World Tour event where the favourites hold little appeal, so I’m chancing my arm a little further down the board this week.
At the age of 40, life is good right now for Pablo Larrazabal. With fatherhood impending in the near future, it’s been all smiles for the amiable Spaniard who’s looking to make it double figures in terms of Tour victories with his next success.
Post-season work has been about improving his swing speed to gain those extra few yards that can make all the difference in the modern game, and he’s been enthused about how that project’s been progressing of late judging by his social media posts.
20th at the Dubai Invitational shook the festive rust off and he finished with an outstanding bogey-free round of 66 at The Emirates on Sunday in tricky conditions to vault up to a tie for 4th place overall and a big personal best at the Dubai Desert Classic on his 16th attempt.
A drop in class this week and a switch in venue to one which players have seemingly been able to get away with copious amounts of fairways missed can only help Pablo’s cause as he looks for a fifth win inside the last 2 years. 3rd here on course debut at the 2022 Ras Al Khaimah Classic reinforces the point that this course is a great fit for the Barcelona man and a field-leading 9 Stokes Gained Putting that week suggests he very much likes the greens here.
56th last year came in a period where the putter has pretty cold, however 7th for SG Putting last week is much more promising and that was compliment by top-20 SG Approach and SG Tee to Green rankings for the second week in succession, which is somewhat of a rarity for Larrazabal. RESULT: MC
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Betting on golf isn’t an exact science and if anything betting on Haotong Li takes that statement to the extreme, however ignoring the good parts of his play so far in 2024 could be a mistake, and at the price in this level of competition he has to be supported.
We backed the Chinese star when he secured his third title at DP World Tour level back at the BMW International Open in the summer of 2022, clutching victory from the jaws of defeat in a play-off with Thomas Pieters by holing a monstrous 50-putt for birdie on the first extra hole. Although I’d much prefer a more sedate route to success this week, I fear that if Li is going to seriously contend this week then it could well be another rollercoaster.
That success in Germany came off the back of progressive finishes of 37th and 18th where elements of his long game had hinted at something positive was happening; as it happened he put it all together to lead the field from Tee to Green that week, which was enough when combined with a typically solid putting performance.
14th at the Dubai Invitational saw the 28 year-old rank 10th for SG Approach, 13th for SG Off the Tee and 16th for SG Tee to Green, whereas 7th overall last week at the Dubai Desert Classic saw further improvement with his SG Approach game – 5th overall – combined with a field-leading putting performance.
3rd here on debut in 2022 saw Li top the field for SG Approach and rank 4th for SG Tee to Green, and although he could only back that up with a 33rd place finish the following week on the same course, his card had undoubtedly been marked for future events held here.
Haotong qualified for the 2016 Olympics in Rio as one of China’s two entrants, describing it as a ‘dream come true’ at the time. Having missed out last time in Tokyo, there’s still scope for him to make the grade this year if he can continue his progress up the OWGR which should help focus the mind. RESULT: T63
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Alejandro Del Rey 1.5pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Playing a practice round alongside Jon Rahm at LA Country Club ahead of last year’s US Open brought Alejandro Del Rey to many a punter’s attention, largely due to the positive words that the former OWGR number 1 had to say about his compatriot.
Rahm was right to be impressed: here’s a hugely impressive, modern-style golfer who hits the ball a country mile and can make copious amounts of birdies – carding a 58 on the Challenge Tour’s Swiss Challenge event, on a Par 72 no less, is testament to that fact alone.
On a course that’s set up beautifully for the more aggressive types when conditions have been at their best, 3rd for Driving Distance on Tour for the full 2023 season singles out Del Rey as one of the players who could profit most from the short Par 4s and Par 5s here at Al Hamra. 13th for SG Off the Tee last term was complimented by ranking 3rd for Birdie Average over the full season – another two important parts of this week’s jigsaw in my view.
5th at the South African Open and 7th at Leopard Creek in December were encouraging results to finish the year for the 25 year-old and he shook off the rust last week with a 38th place finish at Rolex Series level in Dubai, having sat in 10th spot heading into Sunday’s final round.
28th here on debut 12 months ago came after 6 weeks off the course over the festive period – he went on to finish 3rd the following week in Singapore for what rates as his career-best finish at this level. With a course that suits and back in the groove now, I can see him threatening that effort and potentially breaking his DP World Tour maiden here this week. RESULT: T37
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Callum Shinkwin 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Finally, in a week where the market leaders hold little interest for me, I’ll close with 2-time Tour winner Callum Shinkwin who’s got the raw materials to seriously contend here at Al Hamra.
Runner up to Rafa Cabrera-Bello at Dundonald Links in 2017, the 30 year-old has gone on to record victories at Aphrodite Hills in Cyprus and at Celtic Manor, both of which carry some relevance to this week’s task given their exposed nature and proximity to the coast. 2nd at the 2022 Dunhill Links can’t be ignored, neither can 4th at last year’s Dubai Desert Classic which came in a significantly higher grade field than this.
Despite his fair share of injury issues, the Hertfordshire man can still get the ball out there from off the tee, averaging just shy of 306 yards for the 2023 season, and this week’s task at Al Hamra clearly sets up nicely for his driver as he’s finished 1st and 6th in terms of Driving Distance from the two events that he’s completed here in 2022, with last year’s effort ending with a withdrawal.
Those two efforts here need a little more scrutiny as whilst 21st and 25th place finishes are neither bad nor overly good, Strokes Gained rankings of 1st and 3rd for Off the Tee and 3rd both times from Tee to Green further reinforces to me that this layout suits his eye as well as his game.
After a slow start at the Dubai Invitational, 11th last week at the Emirates was a much better effort at Rolex Series level and 7th for SG Off the Tee, 12th for SG Tee to Green and 14th for SG Approach were eye-catching figures in terms of the week-on-week improvement. A positive performance with the putter was also a plus given that it’s been almost exclusively a negative since the middle of last summer, and at the price I think he’s got enough about him at this level to threaten an each-way place or better. RESULT: T4
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