Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Ras Al Khaimah Championship Tips 2025

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Congratulations if you were on Tyrrell Hatton last week at anything up to Monday’s opening show of 9/1. That’s yet another Rolex Series win for the Englishman who impressed considerably after recovering from a wobbly finish on Thursday’s opening round.

We move on and after last week’s high quality event in Dubai, it’s back to Earth with a bump this week as the DP World Tour continues its early-season Middle East swing with a return to Ras Al Khaimah, which debuted on the Tour in 2022.

Most of the household names have flown out of the UAE leaving defending champion Thorbjorn Olesen as the clear favourite at a best price of 12/1, followed by Patrick Reed at 18/1 after his top 10 finish last week at The Emirates. Ryan Fox, Tom McKibbin, Jordan Smith and Keita Nakajima follow in the betting at around 22/1 in this 138-man field.

Before we go into more detail and my final Ras Al Khaimah Championship tips, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as the golfing year kicks off. Welcome to you all and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, 6,400-strong private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Course Overview. Al Hamra Golf Club is this week’s venue and the Peter Harradine design stretches to 7,378 yards for its par of 72. Although new to the DP World Tour in 2022, Al Hamra hosted 3 events on the Challenge Tour between 2016-18 which form part of this week’s event stats and combined stats.

A regular 36/36 setup, the back 9 is longer than the front 9 and that makes the back 9 a tougher prospect with many of the best scoring opportunities coming in the first 8 holes. The Par-5s are all long without being excessively so at 574-607 yards; 3 sub-400 yard Par 4s also add to the scoring potential of a course that’s designed for the tourist trade primarily and allows for lots of birdies and eagles.

Set just off the coast of Ras al Khaimah, there’s definitely a coastal vibe about the track and the exposed fairways and desert surroundings are complimented by water hazards in the shape of lagoons on a number of holes for the errant. Paspalum grass has been used exclusively from tee to green.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Ras al Khaimah Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Current/Course Form | SG Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Course Winners:

  • (DP World Tour).2024, Thorbjorn Olesen (-27); 2023: Daniel Gavins (-17), 200/1; 2022, Ryan Fox (-22), 60/1; Nicolai Hojgaard (-24), 35/1.
  • (Challenge Tour). 2018, Adri Arnaus (-17); 2017, Jens Dantorp (-15); 2016, Jordan Smith (-20).

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Ras al Khaimah is here.

The event should enjoy mild (mid-70s) and dry conditions throughout the 4 days. Thursday afternoon’s 10-15mph is the breeziest that it’s forecast to get during tournament play in what should be another low-scoring event.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Although there are no stats available for the Challenge Tour events held here at Al Hamra, we do at least have the three Ras al Khaimah Championships and the Ras al Khaimah Classic held here to study:

  • 2024: Thorbjorn Olesen. 316 yards (22nd), 50% fairways (7th), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 88.9% scrambling (1st), 1.53 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2023: Daniel Gavins. 302 yards (54th), 21.4% fairways (64th), 58.4% greens in regulation (49th), 70% scrambling (20th), 1.48 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2022 (Classic): Ryan Fox. 324 yards (9th), 28.6% fairways (60th), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 60% scrambling (70th), 1.55 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2022 (Championship): Nicolai Hojgaard. 332 yards (3rd), 23.2% fairways (72nd), 73.6% greens in regulation (7th), 68.4% scrambling (42nd), 1.63 putts per GIR (18th).

Length off the tee outweighed accuracy in 2022, with both winners seemingly bombing it where they liked and still putting themselves in position to hit greens and make birdies. Scrambling stats were generally high for the entire field, so bomb, gouge and putt would seem to be a viable route to success.

Daniel Gavins took a slightly different route to success in 2023 – and a rather scenic route on the 72nd hole at that – with average drives 30 yards shorter than the previous two winners. Accuracy once again was of little significance with the Englishman’s putter proving to be a formidable weapon.

Thorbjorn Olesen’s victory last year was the most balanced to date with relatively long, relatively accurate driving complimented by a field-leading GIR performance. All four winners were inside the top 20 for putting average on the week and the most recent three were inside the top 4.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the 2 winners here in 2022 and Thorbjorn Olesen last year compiled their scores in a very similar fashion with excellent Approach and Tee to Green performances, whereas Daniel Gavins relied heavily on his performance on and around the greens to eventually get over the line:

  • Thorbjorn Olesen: T: 8th; A: 1st; T2G: 1st; ATG: 13th; P: 4th
  • Daniel Gavins. T: 64th; A: 20th; T2G: 25th; ATG: 3rd; P: 1st
  • Ryan Fox. T: 26th; A: 2nd; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 22nd; P: 7th
  • Nicolai Hojgaard. T: 1st; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 38th; P: 43rd

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

In 2022, both Fox and Hojgaard excelled from a SG Approach and SG Tee to Green perspective, with the Kiwi putting better than the Dane although he wasn’t so strong from off the tee.

A little further down the 2 leaderboards, SG Tee to Green is the most consistent statistic with Ross Fisher, who finished second to Ryan Fox, topping that stat in the Classic and strong ball-striker Jordan Smith finishing as Nicolai Hojgaard’s closest challenger the week before.

Looking at those who just failed to catch Daniel Gavins in 2023, SG Tee to Green once again sticks out with the next 9 players on the final leaderboard all ranking inside the top 16 on that count. As ever in this game, there’s always an exception to the rule.

Thorbjorn Olesen was outstanding on pretty much every statistic last year, however SG Tee to Green was still the most prominent statistic of the top dozen or so players, with slightly more emphasis on SG Putting 12 months ago in optimal scoring conditions.

Scoring Breakdown: Focussing on the same four players, we have the following breakdown in terms of their scoring:

  • Thorbjorn Olesen. Par-3: -1; Par-4: -12; Par-5: -14; 1 Eagle, 28 Birdies. 2 Bogeys/Worse.
  • Daniel Gavins. Par-3: -4; Par-4: -2; Par-5: -11; 0 Eagles, 27 Birdies. 9 Bogeys/Worse.
  • Ryan Fox. Par-3: -1; Par-4: -14; Par-5: -7; 0 Eagles, 30 Birdies. 8 Bogeys/Worse.
  • Nicolai Hojgaard. Par-3: +1; Par-4: -10; Par-5: -15; 3 Eagles, 25 Birdies. 6 Bogeys/Worse.

Birdies are fairly easy to come by here and players looking to contend will need to make close to 30 on the week to contend here in anything but atrocious conditions. Par-5 Scoring isn’t the be-all and end-all looking at some of those players who just missed out over the 4 events held here at DP World Tour level, however scoring heavily on the longer holes certainly won’t hurt and a player who will need to either excel on the 4s or 5s – or both as per Olesen and Hojgaard – if they’re going to have a chance coming down the stretch.

Incoming Form. The incoming form of the 3 winners here at Al Hamra from the Challenge Tour days, plus the four winners at the DP World Tour level, suggests that some good recent form wouldn’t go amiss, as all seven had recorded a top-8 finish in one of their last 9 starts:

  • Thorbjorn Olesen: 40/45/33/10/WD/17/9/9/3/26/8/21
  • Daniel Gavins: 42/MC/MC/6/39/MC/MC/63/30/MC/MC/38
  • Ryan Fox: 13/29/MC/63/15/54/24/4/MC/61/26/MC
  • Nicolai Hojgaard: MC/21/17/1/20/14/MC/MC/2/4/MC/MC
  • Adri Arnaus: 18/16/29/MC/13/11/2/30/9/48/4/18
  • Jens Dantorp: 55/MC/34/62/49/22/48/5/15/8/MC/14
  • Jordan Smith: 20/15/MC/DQ/21/9/6/4/15/2/MC/MC

As a 200/1 chance, Gavins’ form was probably the most tenuous although he had recorded a creditable 6th at the Dunhill Links in the autumn. 38th at the Dubai Desert Classic the previous week showed some promise though as he sat 11th after day 1 before dropping back. Olesen was a little more obvious last year having recorded finishes of 8th and 21st in his two starts in the calendar year.

Interestingly both of the 2022 winners here had missed their previous cut: Hojgaard had opened with a 77 the week before at The Emirates, meaning that an improved round of 72 on the Friday wasn’t enough to see him through to the weekend; Fox on the other hand shot 71/71 here at Al Hamra before finding his form on the same stretch of land a week later.

Course Form. Course form history is understandably patchy given this is a relatively new event, however from what we’ve seen those with previous Missed Cuts or even those making their course debut shouldn’t be overlooked here:

  • Thorbjorn Olesen: MC/MC/4
  • Daniel Gavins: MC
  • Ryan Fox: 16/MC
  • Nicolai Hojgaard: Debut
  • Adri Arnaus: Debut
  • Jens Dantorp: 47
  • Jordan Smith: Debut

Our limited visits here have taught us that this resort course is very scoreable when conditions are tranquil, and the risk-reward nature of many of the key scoring holes means that fortune may well favour the brave. With little wind anticipated, I’m expecting another low-scoring affair this week where aggressive play from off the tee coupled with a compliant putter should see the winner getting into the 20-under par region once again.

My selections are as follows:

Ryan Fox 2pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

In a significantly weaker field than last week’s Dubai Desert Classic, Al Hamra course winner Ryan Fox makes a lot of appeal before he heads back to the PGA Tour having retained his playing rights across the Atlantic last season.

The Kiwi showed his liking for this course at the 2022 Ras al Khaimah Classic, beating Ross Fisher by a full 5 strokes having missed the cut on the same course at this event the week before. That brief run out the week before clearly helped him prepare for his victory and last week’s 10th place finish at The Emirates looks to have shaken off any rust that the 37 year-old may have had after the festive period.

Having rested a niggling hip injury towards the end of last year with his PGA Tour card sewn up for 2025, Fox stepped up the practice over December and by his own estimation is playing some nice golf heading into the new season, “I’ve had a really good prep leading into this. I played a lot of go in December and had a nice sort of week at home in the lead up to coming away, really getting the game ready. And I’ve been playing nicely at home.”

Last week’s effort was typically Ryan Fox, ranking 79th and last of the players to make the cut in terms of Driving Accuracy, but still managing to rank inside the top 10 for both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green. That kind of combination is somewhat bizarrely the right fit for this Al Hamra course where flagrant driving has seen Nicolai Hojgaard, Daniel Gavins and Fox himself succeed in the recent past, with even last year’s winner Thorbjorn Olesen still only finding the short grass half of the time.

When the Auckland man did find greens in the regulation number last week there was only 1 player who took fewer putts and that bodes well given the far greater penalty last week for missing drives.

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Keita Nakajima 2pts EW 22/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

With Thorbjorn Olesen a skinny price to defend the title, a feat he’s so far failed to achieve from 7 attempts on Tour, and Patrick Reed seemingly less suited to the course than others on his first attempt at this Al Hamra layout, my preference is to keep faith with Keita Nakajima who impressed in parts last week.

With the reduction in quality the Japanese star’s price has understandably tumbled, not helped I’m sure by his closing albatross at the 72nd hole from 236 yards which elevated up to a tie for 21st overall. Having almost made an ace on the 4th hole on Friday, hitting the middle of the flag on the tough par 3 and somehow staying above ground, it’s clear that he’s striking the ball nicely at present.

The 24 year-old finished 4th here last year to kick off his rookie season on the DP World Tour and he quickly got to grips with golf at this level, winning the Indian Open at the end of March to reinforce the potential that he’d shown by winning 4 times on the Japan Tour, once as an amateur in 2021 and three times in 2023. Two of those wins came at deep winning scores, 24- and 29-under par, to suggest that he’s comfortably rattling off birdies and eagles when the situation dictates, and given what we’ve seen here in the past coupled with a placid weather forecast, that may be no bad asset to have.

Now that Nakajima is seeing venues for a second time competitively I suspect we’ll start to discover his true potential, and having finished 7th at the Earth Course in far, far stronger company before the festive break, this could prove to be a relatively easy target for the form amateur number 1.

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Ricardo Gouveia 1pt EW 150/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

With a couple of players in the top half dozen of the betting already backed, I’ll complete my team with a pair of longer prices who both impressed at times last week on their respective 2025 debuts.

First up, Ricardo Gouveia who finished 14th last week in Dubai having co-led after the first round with an opening knock of 65. The Portuguese star is still seeking his maiden title at DP World Tour level having won a total of 7 times over the years on the Challenge Tour, and he’ll have another season in 2025 to try to get over the line having secured his card with a 3rd place finish at the Genesis Championship back in October when push well and truly came to shove.

With a top 5 or better required heading to South Korea to retain his playing rights, the 33 year-old produced the goods under pressure and perhaps that will set him in good stead next time he’s truly in contention. Having hit the ground running last week at Rolex Series level, perhaps that next contending performance will come as soon as this week.

Two of those aforementioned Challenge Tour victories have come in the Middle East, firstly in Oman at the 2015 NBO Grand Final and more recently at the 2023 Abu Dhabi Challenge, with the agronomy and topography of the Al Mouj course in Oman of particular relevance to this week’s task.

Three attempts at this Al Hamra course have produced finishes of MC/MC/23, however within that he’s opened with 65 twice to sit 2nd (2022) and 4th (2024) after the first day – perhaps if he can get off to another fast start then he can record another improvement on that form line here this week.

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Dylan Frittelli 1pt EW 175/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Finally I’ll also take a chance on Dylan Frittelli who produced some eye-catching numbers last week on the Majlis course.

10th in Dubai was the best result on Tour for the South African for very nearly a year, having won the Bahrain Championship at the beginning of February – a title which he’ll be defending next week which could help take any pressure off of this week’s performance.

An opening 73 last week put the 34 year-old in danger of missing out on the weekend, however middle rounds of 68/67 were amongst the very best on display and Dylan entered Sunday in 6th place and with an outside chance of pushing for the title. A closing 71 was never going to be enough, but positive signs nonetheless and if he can repeat SG rankings of 8th for Off the Tee, 4th for Approach and 2nd for Tee to Green in this week’s lesser company he could reward each-way backers and potentially push for the title.

With a PGA Tour title to his name (2019 John Deere Classic – won at 21-under) as well as three DP World Tour titles, Frittelli is one of the more decorated players in this week’s field. His 2017 Mauritius Open win as well as last year’s Bahrain Championship success share agronomy links to Al Hamra, and despite course form of 42/70 I think there are enough positives to warrant an investment this week.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:10GMT 20.1.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.