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Congratulations to Francesco Molinari backers who won at Carnoustie at 33/1. The Italian’s white-hot form both across the European and PGA Tours continued at The Open where his weekend performance was superb. The poise he showed when partnered with the fast-starting Tiger Woods was truly impressive and when the inevitable back-nine heat became too much for the 14-time Major Champion, Molinari stepped up to the mark. Fearless approach play in windy conditions, top-notch scrambling and total-confidence with the putter produced 16 pars, plus birdies at the 14th and 18th, which distanced the Team Europe Ryder Cup star from the likes of the late charging and McIlroy and Rose, plus the faltering Kisner, Schauffele, Spieth and Woods. Our podcast pundit Barry O’Hanrahan tipped up Francesco on our Open podcast, a weekly production which is always worth a listen.

So on to this week then. Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) sponsorship of the Canadian Open has seen a renaissance of sorts and that looks set to continue in the future with Canada’s national Open set to move to the week before the U.S. Open in the revised 2018/19 PGA Tour schedule. Following on from the United States, French, Irish, Scottish and (British) Open Championships through the early summer, the Canadian derivative includes a Champions’ list which includes Snead, Palmer, Trevino (3 times), Norman (twice), Price, Woods and Jason Day. All Team RBC professionals are at Glen Abbey Golf Course this week for the 109th running of the Canadian Open with Adam Hadwin, David Hearn, Ben Silverman and Nick Taylor amongst a number of Canadians in the field trying to become the latest home champion since Pat Fletcher in 1954.

Over on the European Tour, Paul Williams previews the Porsche European Open – you can read his thoughts on that event here.

Course Guide: Glen Abbey Golf Club is a Jack Nicklaus design that has some unique aspects. The course plays with a 35-37 split with the inward nine featuring par-5s at 13, 16 and 18 – the 16th was converted into a par-5 for the 2009 renewal. At 7,253 yards the course is relatively short by modern standards, but tree-lined fairways give a classical feel and mildly undulating green complexes make this a reasonable if not overly taxing challenge. Glen Abbey also features recently laid Bentgrass green complexes and the course in 2017 changed slightly with the removal of bunkers across the 1st, 8th, 17th and 18th holes.

Glen Abbey GC, Oakville, Ontario: Designer: Nicklaus 1976; Course Type: Classical; Par: 72; Length: 7,253 yards; Water Hazards: 12; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with Ryegrass 3″; Greens: 5,600 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass; Stimpmeter: 11.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2013: 71.60 (-0.40), Difficulty Rank 28 of 43 courses. 2015: 71.21 (-0.79), Difficulty Rank 34 of 52. 2016: 72.54 (+0.54), Difficulty Rank 14 of 50. 2017: 70.37 (-1.63), Difficulty Rank 42 of 50.

Glen Abbey Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Glen Abbey and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

• Glen Abbey: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:31; 300:29; 325:29; 350:30.
• Carnoustie: Average 28 yards.
• TPC Deere Run: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:37; 325:33; 350:30.
• Old White TPC: 250 yards from the tee: 36 yards wide; 275:34; 300:34; 325:35; 350:32.
• TPC Potomac: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:27; 325:23; 350:27.
• TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 37 yards wide; 275:35; 300:28; 325:28; 350:27.
• Shinnecock Hills: Average 42 yards with 8th hole widest at 64 yards wide.
• TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
• Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 36 yards wide; 275:35; 300:31; 325:26; 350:30.
• Colonial: 250 yards from tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:27; 325:26; 350:23.
• Trinity Forest: 250 yards from the tee: 58 yards wide; 275:54; 300:56; 325:60; 350:57.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:32; 325:29; 350:20.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Jack Nicklaus designs include:

• Valhalla Golf Club – 2014 PGA Championship
• Muirfield Village – Memorial Tournament
• Montreaux GCC – Barracuda Championship
• PGA National – Honda Classic
• Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – World Challenge through 2013
• Annandale Golf Club – Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013
• PGA West – Nicklaus Private – Humana Challenge through 2015
• PGA West – Tournament Course – CareerBuilder Challenge 2016 – 2018

Course Overview: A circa 7,200 yard Par 72 will always be attackable on the PGA Tour, but Glen Abbey always plays as tough as course and weather conditions allow. Wind looks set to be stronger than last year with the course not quite as soft as 2017, so expect mid-to-late teens required to win the tournament this week. Fairways are some of the most difficult to hit on Tour, but this is a course where bombers can power their way into contention with little second thoughts for accuracy from off the tee. However, like most classical courses, it’s also a course where those with an accurate all-round game can win and contend with the likes of Snedeker, Hearn, Furyk, McGirt, Bohn and Poulter all having contended in the past 4 Glen Abbey renewals. Both types of player, be they a power bomber or a plotting short game specialist, can thrive here on a course which really welcomes fantastic approach play.

5,600 sq.ft. average green complexes are small for a Par 72, but soft conditions are likely to make this a low scoring shoot-out. With scrambling relatively simple here – 7th easiest on the Tour in 2017 – look for players who can score heavily across a reachable set of par-5s which ranked as the 5th easiest on the PGA Tour last term.

Winners: 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21); 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12); 2015: Jason Day (-17); 2014: Tim Clark (-17); 2013: Brandt Snedeker (-16); 2012: Scott Piercy (-17); 2011: Sean O’Hair (-4); 2010: Carl Pettersson (-14).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Dustin Johnson, Charley Hoffman, Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner, Bubba Watson, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Chris Kirk, Jim Furyk and Jhonattan Vegas.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the AT&T Byron Nelson and includes both PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Adam Hadwin / Conrad Shindler; 3) J.J. Henry; 4) Ryan Armour / David Lingmerth; 6) Steve Stricker; 7) J.J. Spaun; 8) Billy Horschel; 9) Ben Silverman; 10) Brian Stuard; 11) Tommy Fleetwood / Jim Furyk; 13) Ben Crane; 14) Keegan Bradley; 15) Jason Kokrak; 16) Corey Conners / Austin Cook / Billy Hurley III / Kelly Kraft. 20) Sam Ryder.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Tony Finau; 2) J.J. Henry; 3) Joaquin Niemann; 4) J.J. Spaun; 5) Andrew Putnam; 6) Tommy Fleetwood; 7) Stewart Cink; 8) Joel Dahmen; 9) Keegan Bradley; 10) Billy Horschel / Chris Kirk / Harold Varner III; 13) Dustin Johnson / Sam Ryder; 15) Shane Lowry; 16) Brett Stegmaier; 17) Ian Poulter / Scott Stallings; 19) Hunter Mahan / Vaughn Taylor.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1)Brandon Harkins; 2) Brooks Koepka; 3) Dustin Johnson; 4) Whee Kim; 5) Peter Malnati; 6) Scott Brown / Alex Cejka; 8) Hunter Mahan / Graeme McDowell; 10) Chris Kirk; 11) Ben Crane / Lanto Griffin; 13) Joel Dahmen / Tom Hoge / Charley Hoffman / Troy Merritt; 17) Patrick Rodgers / Rob Oppenheim / Brandt Snedeker; 20) Tony Finau / Ian Poulter / Robert Streb / Kevin Tway.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Vegas 125/1; 2016: Vegas 125/1; 2015: Day 9/1F; 2014: Clark 66/1; 2013: Snedeker 14/1; 2012: Piercy 50/1; 2011: Sean O’Hair 100/1; 2010: Pettersson 80/1. Average: 71/1. Past 4 Renewals Average: 81/1. For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010click here.

Historical Weather:

• 2017: Weather: Thursday: Cloudy, with moderate rain in the morning. High of 78. Wind WNW 5-10 mph. Thunderstorms developed in the afternoon. Friday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 72. Wind NNE 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy morning with sunny skies in the afternoon with a high of 76. Wind NE 10-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high temperature of 86. Wind NW at 10-15 mph in the morning decreased to 5-10 mph in the afternoon
• 2016: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 91. Wind SSW 12-18 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and warm. High of 95. Wind WNW 12-18 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny skies and lower humidity with a high of 91. Wind NW 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 86. Wind from SSE 10-15 mph.
• 2015: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 80. Wind WNW at 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 83. Wind WSW at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 84. Wind SW at 12-18 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 85. Wind SW at 5-10 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Oakville, Ontario, is here. I’m not expecting conditions to be quite as soft as 2018, but with 12mm of rain last Sunday and 75% probability of more precipitation tournament Wednesday I’m expecting receptive conditions across the opening 2 days of competition at the very least. With temperatures from 24-26 degrees Celsius across the 4 days of competition conditions should be pretty perfect, although blustery conditions on Thursday and Friday afternoon may put the brake on scoring just a tad.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the 7 winners at Glen Abbey gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2017, Jhonattan Vegas (-21). 308 yards (21st), 50.0% fairways (53rd), 75.0% greens in regulation (7th), 28’1″ proximity to hole (12th), 72.2 % scrambling (19th), 1.65 putts per GIR (19th).
• 2016, Jhonattan Vegas (-12). 324 yards (11th), 44.6% fairways (59th), 69.4% greens in regulation (5th), 37’2″ proximity to hole (62nd), 68.2 % scrambling (16th), 1.78 putts per GIR (57th).
• 2015, Jason Day (-17). 330 yards (2nd), 37.5% fairways (73rd), 65.3% greens in regulation (36th), 32’1″ proximity to hole (51st), 68.0 % scrambling (21st), 1.55 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2013, Brandt Snedeker (-16). 282 yards (58th), 44.6% fairways (59th), 69.4% greens in regulation (18th), 29’1″ proximity to hole (15th), 68.2 % scrambling (22nd), 1.56 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2009, Nathan Green (-18). 278 yards (32nd), 78.6% fairways (1st), 69.4% greens in regulation (29th), 28’9″ proximity to hole (13th), 72.7% scrambling (5th), 1.66 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2008, Chez Reavie (-17). 282 yards (34th), 78.6% fairways (4th), 75.0% greens in regulation (5th), 24’7″ proximity to hole (1st), 61.1% scrambling (23rd), 1.63 putts per GIR (8th).
• 2004, Vijay Singh (-9). 296 yards (5th), 57.1% fairways (39th), 72.2% greens in regulation (1st), 20’10” proximity to hole (42nd), 40.0% scrambling (70th), 1.67 putts per GIR (11th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 23rd, Driving Accuracy: 41st, Greens in Regulation: 14th, Proximity to Hole: 28th, Scrambling: 25th, Putting Average 16th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the course sets up and what specific skills it requires:

Jhonattan Vegas: “It’s a lot softer than it was last year for sure. So obviously you’re going to really have to adapt this week. You’re going to have to fly things right next to the hole. Especially some of these holes around here, where some of that pin positions are so protected from bunkers and water, that you’re going to have to hit your irons really well to score. But obviously it opens up a lot of opportunities, as well. So I think you’re going to see low scores again.

 It was hard to get used to, because even the past previous years, the past two times, 2015 and 2016 that I played here, conditions were really firm. So I was used to hitting, you know, all kind of different shots from the tee, and this year I had to hit more drivers. It was a whole different mentality that I had to come in and approach on different lines. It was a course that was more gettable. So I knew that from the beginning, I had to stay aggressive because with conditions soft and not much wind, a lot of birdies were going to be there. Obviously a whole different golf course, and you had to stay aggressive, which I was lucky enough to do.“

Dustin Johnson: “Yeah, the golf course is in great shape. It’s firm and fast. It’s definitely tough to get the ball close to the hole. You’ve really got to land the ball on your numbers. With it being as windy as it was today, it was tough to do that. Yeah, I like this golf course. I think it sets up well for me. I like it off the tee. The conditions are really tough right now. The greens are really firm but they are rolling really nicely. So if you get some good looks at it, you can hold some putts.

Yeah, I think that’s part of the success. I enjoy the course. I like bent greens a lot. These are honestly some of the best we putt on every single year, and they’re probably the best I’ve ever seen them this year. They’re fantastic.“

Jason Day: “I’ve never seen – I mean, for how soft the grass is on the fairway, I’ve never seen the balls bounce so high. It’s 333 yards on one of the holes. I think it’s 6, and I hit 3-wood nearly in the water. I mean, they’re bouncing and rolling pretty quickly. I think the good thing about it is it’s still playable. I think the conditions are set up perfect. The greens, the course superintendent and staff is doing a phenomenal job with the course set up. It was very tactical. You get out early, the ball wasn’t bouncing as much. But as the sun heats up the ground, it’s going to firm-up and start bouncing a lot more, not only the fairway, but the greens, which will make scoring conditions a little harder in the afternoon. But I still think with the winds that we have going on, if we hit it anywhere near the pin, the greens are so pure that you can just roll them in.“

Hunter Mahan: “The small type of greens, that’s going to make you focus on your distance control out there because if it’s a little off, there is not much room for error on these greens, especially when the pins are tucked on the spot. The rough is at a good length where it’s not super penalizing, because I don’t think anybody wants to come off the British Open and the U.S. Open and shoot a couple over, you know? You make it a little bit too hard, and that’s when you’re going to start losing some guys.“

Brandt Snedeker: “It’s a lot of fun to play. If you’re playing well, you’re going to make a lot of birdies; if you’re not, you’re going to struggle. It’s one of those courses where you know you’ve got to make birdies. It’s actually kind of a comforting feeling because you know you have to be aggressive all day long.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners here at Glen Abbey:

• 2017 – Jhonattan Vegas: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 10th, Round 3: 5th.
• 2016 – Jhonattan Vegas: Round 1: 55th, Round 2: 21st, Round 3: 15th.
• 2015 – Jason Day: Round 1: 17th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2013 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 29th, Round 2: 16th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2009 – Nathan Green: Round 1: 20th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2008 – Chez Reavie: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2004 – Vijay Singh: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Jhonattan Vegas: MC Open/MC National/MC Travelers/MC US Open.
• Jhonattan Vegas: 4th Barbasol/53rd Barracuda/44th Congressional/MC Memorial.
• Jason Day: 4th Open/9th US Open/MC Memorial/MC TPC Sawgrass.
• Tim Clark: 5th JDC/MC Greenbrier/MC Travelers/19th St Jude.
• Brandt Snedeker: 11th Open/8th AT&T National/17th US Open/MC St Jude.
• Scott Piercy: 3rd JDC/12th Greenbrier/ MC US Open/MC Memorial.
• Sean O’Hair: MC Open/MC AT&T National/63rd Travelers/MC Memorial.
• Carl Pettersson: MC JDC/6th AT&T National/34th Travelers/28th Memorial.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score here at Glen Abbey since 2008.

• 2017 – Chappell/Every/Hagy/Schniederjans/Swafford – 1AM/4PM -7/65 – 50/1 250/1 125/1 80/1 100/1.
• 2016 – D Johnson/List – AM/PM Split -6/66.
• 2015 – Grillo – AM -8/64.
• 2013 – Steele – AM -7/65.
• 2009 – Na / Villegas – AM/PM Split -8/64.
• 2008 – Axley/Day/Houston/Kim/O’Hair/Reavie/Weir – 2AM/5PM -7/65.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 6 – Steve Stricker.
• 4 – Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson.
• 3 – Matt Kuchar.
• 2 – Stewart Cink, Sergio Garcia, Martin Kaymer, Chris Kirk, Troy Merritt, Sean O’Hair, Jhonattan Vegas, Nick Watney.
• 1 – Sang-moon Bae, Jonas Blixt, Keegan Bradley, Bill Haas, Charley Hoffman, Billy Horschel, Billy Hurley III, Kevin Kisner, Brooks Koepka, Martin Laird, Danny Lee, David Lingmerth, Rod Pampling, Ian Poulter, Chez Reavie, Rory Sabbatini, Brandt Snedeker, Scott Stallings.

The week after the Open Championship has produced some big priced winners since 2008, although we’ve also seen short prices mixed in at Glen Abbey hosted Canadian Opens where favourites Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker have won at 9/1 and 14/1 respectively in the recent past. Glen Abbey does seem to be a course where the best players excel with Tony Finau, Jon Rahm, Bubba Watson, Jim Furyk, Dustin Johnson (twice) and Matt Kuchar all having contended in recent renewals. But then again with Jhonattan Vegas winning the past 2 renewals at 125/1 and with Chez Reavie and Nathan Green (200/1) also having won previous Opens hosted at Glen Abbey, who really knows!

Carl Pettersson (80/1), Sean O’Hair (100/1), Scott Piercy (50/1) and Tim Clark (66/1) have all won this title (at other venues) at big prices. Then in terms of each way returns, Robert Garrigus (150/1), Brandon Hagy (150/1), David Hearn (100/1), William McGirt (125/1), Jason Bohn (200/1), Martin Laird (150/1), Ricky Barnes (175/1), Alex Cejka (250/1) and Steve Wheatcroft (200/1) have also filled the places at Glen Abbey across 2013/15/16/17. Jhonattan Vegas has dominated in Toronto over the past 2 renewals and naturally goes for the 3-peat this week. The Venezuelan will have a chance to become the first player since Steve Stricker in 2009-10-11 to win the same tournament (John Deere Classic) at least three times in a row.

Naturally the big question this week is whether contenders at Carnoustie will bring that form forward to Glen Abbey. Day, Furyk, Snedeker and Mahan have proved that it’s more than possible for elite players to contend in back-to-back weeks. Dustin Johnson had always been a peripheral figure at Royal Troon, despite a 9th place finish in Scotland prior to arriving in Canada in 2016, before finishing runner-up to Jhonattan Vegas. But Vegas shows the vagaries of the RBC Canadian Open by winning this in 2016 after holding the 36 and 54 hole leads at the ‘alternate’ Barbasol Championship before eventually finishing 4th. Naturally 2017 saw the Venezuelan win this for the second year running after a play-off with Charley Hoffman, arriving as he did after 5 straight missed cuts.

My selections are as follows: