RBC Canadian Open Tips 2024

Congratulations if you were on-board Davis Riley at a best Monday price of 350/1 with Unibet at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week. I settled yet again for another runner-up finish – my ninth of 2024 – with Scottie Scheffler, with Sepp Straka helping out a little with a part each-way return at 66/1.

Rory McIlroy has dominated the RBC Canadian Open over recent times and returns to Hamilton Golf & Country Club this week where he triumphed in fine style back in 2019. Sam Burns, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Sahith Theegala and Tom Kim are also in the field, as are the Canadian troop of Corey Conners, Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes, Taylor Pendrith and defending champion Nick Taylor.

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Course Guide: 2024 sees Golf Canada take their national title to Ancaster near Toronto to play the classical and freshly renovated sub-7,100 yard Par 70 at Hamilton Golf & Country Club. This will be the seventh time that Hamilton has hosted the Canadian Open, with Bob Tway (2003), Jim Furyk (2006), Scott Piercy (2012) and Rory McIlroy (2019) winning here in the recent past. At just over 7,000 yards in length, you won’t find many shorter courses on the PGA Tour this season.

Hamilton G&CC, Hamilton, Ontario: Designer: Harry Colt 1914, with Martin Ebert 2019 renovation; Course Type: Classical, Mid-Score, Short; Par: 70; Length: 7,084 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 11; Number of Sand Bunkers: 72; Acres of Fairway: 38; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with Poa Annua/Fescue 4″; Greens: 6,000 sq.ft average featuring V8 Creeping Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 11ft.

Course Scoring Average:

• 2019: 69.66 (-0.34), Difficulty Rank 21 of 49 courses.
• 2012: 69.59 (-0.41), Difficulty Rank 32 of 49 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Hamilton Golf & Country Club and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

• Hamilton: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:29; 325:27; 350:28.
• Colonial: Average 25-30 yards wide.
• Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:32; 300:31; 325:30; 350:29.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
• Memorial Park: 30–40 yards at 300 yards.
• Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
• PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
• Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.

Course Overview: Hamilton G&CC hosted this tournament in 2012 and 2019, but we will see a revised course this year. Harry Colt renovation expert Martin Ebert – of Open Championship venue fame – has overseen a renovation project which has included reconstruction of tees, bunkers and greens on all 27 holes, a new irrigation system, practice putting green and practice area. Play as we’ve seen here previously will be across the West and South courses.

Both 2012 and 2019 visits here have seen soft golf courses to attack. 2012 saw preferred lies in-play across the opening 36 holes, before the course quickened up. With little wind to defend the course and receptive greens over the opening 36 holes, the course was very gettable. Scott Piercy won at -17/263 with 14 players breaking double-digits under par.

The greens were soft and receptive in 2019 and Rory McIlroy took full advantage, shooting a Sunday 61 to make his way to a -22/258 total. The course played a little trickier with juicy 4” rough, placing more emphasis on accuracy off the tee, to then shoot at pins with wedge in hand from the fairway.

An original Harry Colt design, both Piercy and McIlroy described this course as an old-style test, where position both from off the tee and into the greens is key. With severe sloping greens in places, Piercy also highlighted that distance control was required, to ensure hitting first parts of green complexes. Anything long tends to be a bad miss, so playing strategic below-the-hole golf pays dividends here.

The course though will look significantly different to the one we saw in 2019. Trees have been removed in a bid to direct the course back to the way it was from a visual perspective back when the Colt design was opened. New tee boxes have added 117 yards to the course. All 18 greens have been re-built with differing contours, and on average 1,000 sq.ft. has been added to each green so as to provide more pin positions. The tired old Bentgrass/Poa Annua putting surfaces have been replaced with V8 Creeping Bentgrass, and unlike Quail Hollow and Colonial recently they have had a few years to bed down.

All bunkers have been re-built and are quite severe – indeed they are now proper Colt replications. Ebert has also introduced green run-off surrounds which will allow putter and/or low running shots to be used more liberally from off the green, but will challenge and inspire more short-game imagination.

In the last 3 champions here, Jim Furyk, Scott Piercy and Rory McIlroy, you have pretty varying player types. Furyk is a fairways and greens man who is one of the shortest hitters on Tour. Piercy and McIlroy on the other hand are long drivers, who can both be the streakiest of scorers on receptive golf courses. What is linkable though is that both ranked in the top 17 in the All-Round category in the season they captured the title at Hamilton. It’s just that kind of course.

RBC Canadian Open Winners: 2023: Nick Taylor (-17); 2022: Rory McIlroy (-19); 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22); 2018: Dustin Johnson (-23); 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21); 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12); 2015: Jason Day (-17); 2014: Tim Clark (-17); 2013: Brandt Snedeker (-16); 2012: Scott Piercy (-17); 2011: Sean O’Hair (-4); 2010: Carl Pettersson (-14).

• 2023: Nick Taylor 75-67-63-66 –17/271 – AM/PM Wave
• 2022: Rory McIlroy 66-68-65-62 -19/261 AM/PM Wave
• 2019: Rory McIlroy 67-66-64-61 -22/258 AM/PM Wave

OWGR of RBC Canadian Open Winners: 2023: N Taylor 69; 2022: McIlroy 8; 2019: McIlroy 4; 2018: Dustin Johnson 2

Lead Score Progression:

• 2023: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -17.
• 2022: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -8; Round 3 -7; Round 4 -19.
• 2019: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -22.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Rory McIlroy, Sahith Theegala, Alex Noren, Adam Scott, Shane Lowry, Corey Conners, Keith Mitchell, Patton Kizzire, Sam Burns and Aaron Rai.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

RBC Canadian Open Winners & Prices: 2023: N Taylor 66/1; 2021: McIlroy 10/1; 2019: McIlroy 10/1; 2018: Johnson 7/1F; 2017: Vegas 125/1; 2016: Vegas 125/1; 2015: Day 9/1F; 2014: Clark 66/1; 2013: Snedeker 14/1; 2012: Piercy 50/1; 2011: Sean O’Hair 100/1; 2010: Pettersson 80/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 43/1; Average: 55/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 72. Wind NNE 4-8 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 76. Wind NNE 4-8 mph. Saturday: Sunny and breezy. High of 69. Wind NE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 76. Wind ESE 10-15 mph.
• 2012: Thursday: Due to threat of heavy rains, players were allowed preferred lies for the first two rounds. Mostly cloudy, with an afternoon high in the mid-80s. Winds SSW at 8-12 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with an afternoon high in the mid-80s. Winds SW 8-14 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with an afternoon high of 86. Winds SSW at 8-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with an afternoon high of 83. Winds SW at 4-8 mph

Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Hamilton, Ontario is here.

Compared to Fort Worth last week, expect far cooler and far less wind. Moderate temperatures of 19-24 degrees Celsius (66-75 Fahrenheit) will feel cold to those who played in Texas last week. Wind looks pretty much a non-factor, with the interesting angle for me the amount of rain that Hamilton has taken recently. Over an inch (30 mm) across Sunday and Monday (as a I write this) plus a very high chance of more rain on Monday morning (local time) suggests that the course will be receptive on Thursday and with pretty much ideal scoring conditions. So 2019-level scoring looks more than achievable.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Valero Texas Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Rico Hoey; 2) Rory McIlroy; 3) Patrick Fishburn / Keith Mitchell; 5) Kevin Yu; 6) Trace Crowe; 7) Tommy Fleetwood / Davis Thompson; 9) Jhonattan Vegas; 10) Joseph Bramlett / Shane Lowry / Cameron Young; 13) Daniel Berger; 14) Sahith Theegala; 15) Vincent Norrman / Nick Taylor; 17) Charley Hoffman; 18) Mark Hubbard / Adam Scott; 20) Maverick McNealy; 21) Ryan Brehm / Robert MacIntyre; 23) Corey Conners; 24) Akshay Bhatia / Chesson Hadley / Tom Whitney.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Corey Conners; 2) Patton Kizzire; 3) Sahith Theegala; 4) Rory McIlroy; 5) Chan Kim; 6) Kelly Kraft; 7) Adam Svensson; 8) Kevin Yu; 9) Alex Noren; 10) Lanto Griffin; 11) Justin Lower; 12) Daniel Berger / Brice Garnett / Aaron Rai; 15) Shane Lowry / Erik van Rooyen; 17) Sam Burns / Tommy Fleetwood; 19) Akshay Bhatia / Doug Ghim / Seamus Power; 22) Joe Highsmith; 23) Harry Hall / Nick Hardy / Brandon Wu.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Alex Noren; 2) Robby Shelton; 3) Sam Stevens / Kevin Tway; 5) Matt Wallace; 6) Mac Meissner; 7) Joseph Bramlett / Tommy Fleetwood; 9) Brice Garnett / Ryan Moore / Roger Sloan; 12) Adam Hadwin; 13) Sam Burns / Nate Lashley; 15) Aaron Baddeley / Eric Cole / Tyler Duncan / Chez Reavie; 19) Martin Laird; 20) Rory McIlroy; 21) Mackenzie Hughes / David Lipsky / Troy Merritt; 24) Seamus Power; 25) Austin Cook / Beau Hossler.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Alex Noren; 2) Rory McIlroy; 3) Kevin Yu; 4) Tommy Fleetwood / Chan Kim; 6) Keith Mitchell; 7) Corey Conners; 8) Mac Meissner; 9) Patton Kizzire / Aaron Rai; 11) Shane Lowry / Matt Wallace; 13) Maverick McNealy; 14) Daniel Berger / Joseph Bramlett / Adam Svensson; 17) Davis Thompson; 18) Brice Garnett; 19) Brandon Wu; 20) Sam Burns / Sahith Theegala; 22) Akshay Bhatia; 23) Doug Ghim; 24) Chez Reavie / Adam Scott.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Mackenzie Hughes ; 2) Matt Kuchar; 3) Sahith Theegala; 4) Robert MacIntyre; 5) Tyson Alexander; 6) Kevin Tway; 7) Patton Kizzire; 8) Vince Whaley; 9) Ben Griffin; 10) Gary Woodland; 11) S.H. Kim / Rory McIlroy / Cameron Young; 14) Taylor Pendrith / Erik van Rooyen; 16) Ryan McCormick / Justin Suh; 18) Kevin Kisner; 19) Tom Kim; 20) Jacob Bridgeman / Thorbjorn Olesen; 22) Zach Johnson / Sam Stevens; 24) Robby Shelton; 25) Tommy Fleetwood / Beau Hossler.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Alex Noren; 3) Patton Kizzire; 4) Tommy Fleetwood / Kevin Tway; 6) Matt Wallace; 7) Sahith Theegala; 8) Corey Conners; 9) Mac Meissner; 10) Keith Mitchell; 11) Maverick McNealy / Adam Scott; 13) Daniel Berger; 14) Davis Thompson; 15) Chan Kim / S.H. Kim / Shane Lowry / Robert MacIntyre; 19) Thorbjorn Olesen; 20) Adam Svensson; 21) Ben Griffin; 22) Justin Lower; 23) Justin Lower; 24) Taylor Pendrith / Sam Stevens / Erik van Rooyen / Cameron Young.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the 2 winner here at Hamilton G&CC since 2012 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:

• 2019, Rory McIlroy (-22). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 6th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 6th.
• 2012, Scott Piercy (-17). SG Off the Tee: 11th, SG Approach: 33rd, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 4th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 19th, SG Around the Green: 5th, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 5th.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the 3 winners here at Hamilton G&CC since 2006 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this:

• 2019, Rory McIlroy (-22). 324 yards (1st), 66.1% fairways (6th), 76.4% greens in regulation (2nd), 32’0″ proximity to hole (5th), 64.7 % scrambling (36th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2012, Scott Piercy (-17). 311 yards (9th), 62.5% fairways (31st), 66.7% greens in regulation (53rd), 32’3″ proximity to hole (12th), 70.8% scrambling (13th), 1.69 putts per GIR (9th).
• 2006, Jim Furyk (-13). 283 yards (47th), 78.6% fairways (4th), 66.7% greens in regulation (34th), 38’3″ proximity to hole (56th), 70.8 % scrambling (8th), 1.60 putts per GIR (1st).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 19th, Driving Accuracy: 14th, Greens in Regulation: 30th, Proximity to Hole: 24th, Scrambling: 19th, Putting Average 4th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how Hamilton (pre-renovation) set-up and what skill sets the course favoured:

Rory McIlroy (2019): “There is a lot of slope on the greens. There is so much slope that it’s hard to find four hole locations on some greens. They are challenging. Your visuals have to be a lot different, trying to visualize the ball going in at like 3:00 or 9:00, try to sort of visualize that. But, yeah, and then as well with so much slope the speed has to be spot on. That was something I struggled a little bit with today. Felt like my pace wasn’t as good as it needed to be to hole a few more putts.

It’s just so soft. It’s so soft, and if you put it in the fairway with 3-woods or driver you’ve got so many wedges in there. Guys are that good that it’s just you’re going to make a lot of birdies. There are 60, 61, 62s. That’s what it’s going to sort of — probably what I’ll need over the weekend is a score like that and then another mid-60s to have a chance.”

Scott Piercy (2012): “Like I said, I hit it in the rough on one hole and I advanced to 20 yards.  Yeah, on 13.  I had it just short right of that bunker and I almost hit it in the bunker.  And I made bogey.  It settled to the bottom.  It’s long and settled down.  So the rough is really penal. As far as the pins go, there was a couple that seemed a little dicey.  No. 2, that pin was kind of like a mound. I hit it just long left of it. I’m like, I want to keep it on the green.  There’s a couple that look pretty crazy. You know, it’s offensive if you’re in the fairway right now definitely.  The golf course doesn’t play very long.  But if you’re not in the fairway, you know, it’s going to fight you a little bit.  So the greens are receptive.  You can spin back wedges.  You can play in with a 9‑iron, you can pull back a few tees.

I will tell you this golf course for me takes the juices out of it for me, because it’s not an exciting golf course where you generally go hit driver.  It’s a lot of position off the tee, and it’s a lot of position into the green.  You want to be just to that first part of the green in the middle of the green, and putting into the corners. For me, I like to be aggressive and shoot at things, but that’s really boring for me.  So I would say it’s the opposite, in my mind, anyway, you know, like the Phoenix Open.  You’re going out for birdies and everybody knows it.  Here it’s more playing for pars and hoping that the birdies fall.  Does that make sense? So because the greens are so severe in spots, you want to be below the hole, putting up into them.  So if you’re below the hole, generally‑ anything below the hole, you’re not going to mess up the hole.  Even if you’re short of the green you’re usually putting up to the hole.  So it’s a lot of position off the tee to hit the fairways, so you have a chance to be as aggressive as you can be.  Then you still got to play position to the green, pins back.  You have to play short, stuff like that.”

Robert Garrigus (2012): “My caddie Brent Henley and I had a game plan starting the week.  We weren’t going to pound driver all day, but the holes we could take advantage of it, we’re going to hit it.  We could hit it 6 times a day which is more than I thought I was going to.  I’ve hit a couple of 5‑woods and 3‑irons.  My 3‑iron has been very key except for one shot on 10 I kind of fluffed it.

But it’s been a lot of fun this week.  Plus I’m hitting my irons so well, and I’m putting okay.  I mean, my caddie keeps telling me if you keep hitting close, you’re going to miss a couple.  So don’t get frustrated.  He’s been good about keeping me calm about that, because I missed some short putts.  So now I’m looking forward to this weekend.”

William McGirt (2012): “Well, the greens definitely firmed up today.  You didn’t really see anybody ripping wedges back off greens today.  So you’re starting to get a decent first bounce on some holes. There were a couple of times where we were playing for a softer bounce, kind of flying it to the number.  And watched it release.  My 4‑iron on 6 released probably 20 or 25 feet.  It hit just short of hole high and almost released through.  So yesterday that ball would have probably released maybe five, six feet.

I love old traditional style golf courses, and this is definitely old.  Donald Ross is my favourite architect, and this has a lot of Ross characteristics to it.”

Incoming Form of RBC Canadian Open winners since 2010:

• Nick Taylor: MC Colonial/MC PGA/2nd New Orleans/41st Harbour Town.
• Rory McIlroy: 18th Memorial/8th PGA/5th Wells Fargo/2nd Augusta.
• Rory McIlroy: MC Memorial/8th PGA/8th Wells Fargo/21st Augusta.
• Dustin Johnson: MC Open/3rd US Open/1st St Jude/8th Memorial.
• Jhonattan Vegas: MC Open/MC National/MC Travelers/MC US Open.
• Jhonattan Vegas: 4th Barbasol/53rd Barracuda/44th Congressional/MC Memorial.
• Jason Day: 4th Open/9th US Open/MC Memorial/MC TPC Sawgrass.
• Tim Clark: 5th JDC/MC Greenbrier/MC Travelers/19th St Jude.
• Brandt Snedeker: 11th Open/8th AT&T National/17th US Open/MC St Jude.
• Scott Piercy: 3rd JDC/12th Greenbrier/ MC US Open/MC Memorial.
• Sean O’Hair: MC Open/MC AT&T National/63rd Travelers/MC Memorial.

• Carl Pettersson: MC JDC/6th AT&T National/34th Travelers/28th Memorial..

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2023 – Conners/Hadley/Lower/Rai – ALL AM -5/67 – 33/1 200/1 150/1 80/1.
• 2022 – Clark – AM -7/63 – 125/1.
• 2019 – Bradley – AM -7/63 – 60/1.
• 2018 – Garrigus – AM -9/63 – 200/1.
• 2017 – Chappell/Every/Hagy/Schniederjans/Swafford – 1AM/4PM  -7/65 – 50/1 250/1 125/1 80/1 100/1.
• 2016 – D Johnson/List – AM/PM Split -6/66.
• 2015 – Grillo – AM -8/64.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 9 – Rory McIlroy.
• 5 – Zach Johnson.
• 3 – Matt Kuchar, Ryan Moore, Adam Scott.
• 2 – Stewart Cink, Tom Kim, Martin Laird, K.H. Lee, Troy Merritt, Jhonattan Vegas.
• 1 – Daniel Berger, Sam Burns, Cameron Champ, Charley Hoffman, Michael Kim, Kevin Kisner, Ben Martin, Vincent Norrman, Seamus Power, Chez Reavie, Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Streelman, Camilo Villegas.

The RBC Canadian Open tends to visit similar golf courses: tree-lined, classical and not overly long. Bentgrass greened or a mix of Bentgrass with Poa Annua.

Winners though vary massively. Brandt Snedeker in 2013 (14/1), Jason Day in 2015 (9/1 favourite), Dustin Johnson in 2018 (7/1 favourite), Rory McIlroy in 2019 (10/1) and McIlroy again in 2022 (10/1) have all been favourites or in the top 3 in the betting market.

If a super-elite doesn’t win, then we need to look far deeper down the betting market. 50/1 Scott Piercy (we were on-board) here at Hamilton in 2012 was the shortest odds-wise, with in odds order Tim Clark (2012) 66/1, Nick Taylor (2023) 66/1, Carl Pettersson (2010) 80/1, Sean O’Hair (2011) 100/1, Jhonattan Vegas (2016) 125/1 and Jhonattan Vegas (2017) at 125/1 making up the other winners since 2010. So summarising there have been no winners of the RBC Canadian Open going all the way back to 2009 between 14/1 and 50/1. Food for thought!

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 13:50BST 27.5.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.