RBC Heritage Tips 2020

Well, we were welcomed back to PGA Tour action royally last week with a phenomenal Charles Schwab Challenge. From start to finish it was a tournament packed full of action and a stacked leaderboard to boot.

Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and Gary Woodland were locked towards the top of the leaderboard throughout, with a sprinkle of Branden Grace and Harold Varner III for good measure. Ultimately Schauffele and Morikawa had the chances to win, but eventually World Number 107 Daniel Berger took the title at 66/1. Golf betting – you just have to love it! Congratulations if you were on board the winner.

Before we talk through my RBC Heritage tips, the number of new visitors to Golf Betting System is sure to be strong, with new readers and those new to golf betting full stop.  Welcome to you all and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published Tuesday) the Golf Betting Show on YouTube and our hugely popular private group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Plenty of the Charles Schwab Challenge field have taken a two and a half hour flight from Texas to the South Carolina coast for this week’s RBC Heritage at the stunning Harbour Town Golf Links. Royal Bank of Canada’s sponsorship (RBC) always helps to attract a decent field for this tournament. Team RBC members Dustin Johnson, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, Brandt Snedeker, Graeme McDowell, Jim Furyk, Ryan Palmer, and Canada’s finest players such as Adam Hadwin and Corey Conners, help to support a tournament that also sees Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas and last week’s winner Daniel Berger play a tight course where strategic thinking is key.

2020 PGA Tour Resumption Key Bookmaker Promotions

With the eyes of the world watching the PGA Tour last week, bookmakers are keen to offer golf punters real value right now. The RBC Heritage features a stacked field and will offer-up betting entertainment from Thursday onwards, supporting the return of the English Premier League which kicks off on Wednesday evening. All in all it’s a superb week to open a new bookmaker account, so here are our picks for you to take advantage of:

 8 Places Each-Way at the 2020 RBC Heritage with Boylesports 

Boylesports are once again leading the way when it comes to enhanced each-way terms, offering 8 places, 1/5 odds again this week at the RBC Heritage:

 8 Places Each-Way at the 2020 RBC Heritage with Paddy Power

Not to be outdone, Paddy Power are also offering the same each way terms as Boylesports. As ever, it’s worth checking the prices on your selections with both bookmakers before placing your bets:

Course Guide: Harbour Town Golf Links is no typical coastal course, instead I categorise it as a Carolina track – i.e. sharing features with Quail Hollow, Sedgefield and Pinehurst No.2. It also has extremely close form associations with Copperhead at Innisbrook Resort in Florida, which plays far more as a Carolina-type course than a typical Florida track.

Carolina courses are traditionally tree-lined, feature doglegs and narrow sight lines from the tee. Harbour Town itself is a Pete Dye design that also features tiny dome-shaped Bermuda TifEagle greens (putting surfaces were re-laid for the 2016 renewal) that are incredibly difficult to hit in regulation. Hitting fairways is an advantage to minimise approach shots being blocked by trees, and it’s very much a golf course where ball-striking and creative shot-shaping are required to get close to tricky pin positions.

Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head, South Carolina: Designer: Pete Dye with 2000 re-design; Course Type: Carolina, Technical; Par: 71; Length: 7,099 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 10; Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass; Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass 1.375″; Greens: 3,700 sq.ft average TifEagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimp: 11-11.5 ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 72.29 (+1.29), Difficulty Rank 9 of 49 courses. 2013: 72.04 (+1.04), Difficulty Rank 11 of 43 courses. 2014: 72.04 (+1.04), Rank 9 of 48 courses. 2015: 70.49 (-0.51), Rank 26 of 52 courses. 2016: 72.29 (+1.29), Rank 8 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.68 (-0.32), Rank of 29 of 50 courses. 2018: 70.85 (-0.15), Rank 19 of 51 courses. 2019: 71.17 (+0.17), Rank 11 of 49 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the Harbour Town Golf Links and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
• Colonial: 250 yards from tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:27; 325:26; 350:23.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
• PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
• Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Pete Dye designs include:

• Austin Country Club – WGC Dell Matchplay since 2016
• Crooked Stick – 2012 and 2016 BMW Championship.
• Ocean Course – Kiawah Island – 2012 PGA Championship
• TPC River Highlands – The Travelers
• TPC Louisiana – Zurich Classic of New Orleans
• TPC Sawgrass – The Players Championship
• TPC Stadium, PGA West – The American Express since 2016
• Whistling Straits – 2010 and 2015 PGA Championship

Course Overview: Harbour Town Golf Links is a specialised test that appeals to players who thrive on gnarly TifEagle Bermudagrass putting surfaces and who have a short game to cope with the inevitable missed greens. Undoubtedly a shot-makers course, precision from the tee rather than brute power is the key this week to avoid live oaks, pine trees and strategically placed bunkers. Greens which average only 3,700 sq.ft. are typically dome-shaped (a Dye design trait), and that’s a critical point this week because even the very best ball-strikers will miss at least 20 greens over the week, so sound scrambling is essential. Harbour Town Golf Links pretty much plays as tough as the wind conditions dictate – benign and soft course conditions in the past have seen plotters reach scores of -18/266 to -20/264. If it’s firm and windy, sub -10/274 can suffice.

With fresh TifEagle Bermudagrass putting surfaces laid for 2016, which have been particularly firm since their introduction, it’ll be interesting to see how they’ve settled a further 12 months down the line. Primarily though the same skills-sets are key: power hitters who have little regard for strategy are at a distinct disadvantage and Greens in Regulation numbers here are always in the top 10 toughest on the PGA Tour, even when the wind doesn’t blow as per 2015. That’s hardly surprising as the Dye design features green complexes that are the smallest on Tour.

At a test where hitting 70% greens in regulation is a tough task, the ability to scramble across the greens missed is absolutely essential – those who struggle to get up and down simply haemorrhage too many bogeys. The TifEagle Bermudagrass greens are also tricky for putts from 10-15 feet (16th toughest on Tour last term), and 20-25 feet (4th toughest last term) making another key requirement the ability to hit the ball close on approaches. The course though rewards all-round ability. Look for those who can take advantage of scoreable conditions across both the par-4s and the par-5s. Players have plenty of opportunities around Harbour Town with wedge in hand.

Winners: 2019: C.T. Pan (-12); 2018: Satoshi Kodaira (-12); 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13); 2016: Branden Grace (-9); 2015: Jim Furyk (-18); 2014: Matt Kuchar (-11); 2013: Graeme McDowell (-9); 2012: Carl Pettersson (-14); 2011: Brandt Snedeker (-12); 2010: Jim Furyk (-13); 2009: Brian Gay (-20); 2008: Boo Weekley (-15); 2007: Boo Weekley (-14).

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Webb Simpson, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner and Jon Rahm.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Waste Management Phoenix Open and Saudi International, which includes PGA Tour and European Tour (where recorded) events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) David Hearn; 2) Jim Furyk; 3) Matthew Fitzpatrick; 4) Daniel Berger; 5) K.J. Choi / Kyle Stanley; 7) Kevin Kisner; 8) Ryan Armour / Tyrrell Hatton / Brian Stuard; 11) Austin Cook; 12) Tyler Duncan; 13) Corey Conners / Chez Reavie; 15) Sungjae Im / Brendon Todd; 17) Harris English / Collin Morikawa; 19) Vaughn Taylor; 20) Bronson Burgoon / Jason Dufner / Tom Hoge / Billy Horschel / Harold Varner III.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Shane Lowry; 2) Tyrrell Hatton; 3) Collin Morikawa / Xander Schauffele; 5) Corey Conners; 6) Ted Potter Jnr; 7) Sergio Garcia / Hideki Matsuyama; 9) Rory McIlroy; 10) Harold Varner III; 11) Sam Burns; 12) Christiaan Beziudenhout; 13) Tony Finau / Jon Rahm / Kevin Streelman; 16) Graeme McDowell; 17) Jim Furyk / Adam, Long / J.T. Poston; 20) Gary Woodland.
• Scrambling: 1) Brendon Todd; 2) K.J. Choi / Tyrrell Hatton; 4) Sungjae Im; 5) Kevin Kisner; 6) Daniel Berger; 7) Maverick McNealy; 8) Shane Lowry; 9) Luke List / Webb Simpson; 11) Bryson DeChambeau; 12) Ian Poulter; 13) Justin Thomas; 14) Christiaan Beziudenhout; 15) Jon Rahm; 16) Jason Day / David Hearn / Russell Henley / Patrick Reed; 20) Sergio Garcia / Harry Higgs / Xander Schauffele / Sepp Straka.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Justin Thomas; 2) Tyrrell Hatton; 3) Talor Gooch; 4) Luke Donald; 5) Max Homa; 6) Joel Dahmen / Hideki Matsuyama; 8) Charl Schwartzel; 9) Harris English / Branden Grace / Rory McIlroy; 12) Peter Malnati / Vaughn Taylor; 14) Viktor Hovland / Denny McCarthy / Sebastian Munoz; 17) Mackenzie Hughes / Danny Lee / Victor Perez; 20) Bubba Watson.

Recent Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 20 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Waste Management Phoenix Open and Saudi International, which includes both PGA and European Tour events where recorded. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 20 SG Off The Tee: 1) Bryson DeChambeau / Scottie Scheffler; 3) Jason Kokrak / Xander Schauffele; 5) Sungjae Im; 6) Collin Morikawa / Bubba Watson; 8) Sergio Garcia / Dustin Johnson; 10) Rory McIlroy; 11) Austin Cook / Jon Rahm; 13) Tyrrell Hatton; 14) Hideki Matsuyama; 15) Jhonattan Vegas; 16) Sam Burns / Corey Conners; 18) Shane Lowry / Harold Varner III; 20) Abraham Ancer / Viktor Hovland / Adam Schenk.
• Top 20 SG Approach: 1) Collin Morikawa; 2) Hideki Matsuyama; 3) Justin Thomas; 4) Tyrrell Hatton / Gary Woodland; 6) Joel Dahmen; 7) Russell Henley; 8) Christiaan Beziudenhout; 9) Rory McIlroy; 10) Daniel Berger; 11) Xander Schauffele; 12) Victor Perez; 13) Bud Cauley; 14) Bryson DeChambeau / Matthew NeSmith; 16) Corey Conners / Lucas Glover / Graeme McDowell; 19) Maverick McNealy / Webb Simpson.
• Top 20 SG Around The Green: 1) Davis Love III; 2) Aaron Baddeley / Byeong Hun An / Luke List; 5) K.J. Choi; 6) Luke Donald; 7) Hideki Matsuyama; 8) Harris English / Tyrrell Hatton; 10) Sungjae Im; 11) Branden Grace; 12) Bud Cauley / Patrick Reed; 14) Daniel Berger / Charles Howell III / Shane Lowry / Rory Sabbatini / Martin Trainer; 19) Brian Harman; 20) Ian Poulter / Brandt Snedeker.
• Top 20 SG Tee to Green: 1) Hideki Matsuyama; 2) Tyrrell Hatton; 3) Xander Schauffele; 4) Daniel Berger / Collin Morikawa; 6) Sergio Garcia; 7) Bryson DeChambeau; 8) Byeong Hun An; 9) Rory McIlroy; 10) Scottie Scheffler; 11) Sungjae Im / Harold Varner III; 13) Tony Finau; 14) Joel Dahmen / Billy Horschel / Luke List / Justin Thomas; 18) Harris English; 19) Corey Conners; 20) Maverick McNealy.
• Top 20 SG Putting: 1) Harris English; 2) Ian Poulter; 3) Christiaan Beziudenhout; 4) Denny McCarthy; 5) Daniel Berger / Brendon Todd; 7) Tyrrell Hatton / Mackenzie Hughes; 9) Zach Johnson; 10) Patrick Rodgers; 11) Jon Rahm / Charl Schwartzel;  13) Max Homa; 14) Sungjae Im / Peter Malnati; 16) Harry Higgs / Matt Kuchar; 18) Matthew Fitzpatrick / J.T. Poston; 20) Keith Mitchell.
• Top 20 SG Total: 1) Daniel Berger; 2) Tyrrell Hatton; 3) Collin Morikawa; 4) Hideki Matsuyama; 5) Bryson DeChambeau / Harris English / Xander Schauffele; 8) Sungjae Im; 9) Christiaan Beziudenhout / Jon Rahm; 11) Rory McIlroy; 12) Maverick McNealy; 13) Ian Poulter; 14) Max Homa; 15) Joel Dahmen / Justin Thomas; 17) Billy Horschel / Matt Kuchar; 19) Patrick Rodgers / Scottie Scheffler.

PGA Tour Resumption Player Strokes Gained Rankings These top 20 in the field rankings are based purely on last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge:

• Top 20 SG Off The Tee: 1) Bryson DeChambeau; 2) Xander Schauffele; 3) Tony Finau; 4) Rory McIlroy; 5) J.T. Poston; 6) Billy Horschel / Louis Oosthuizen; 8) Jason Kokrak; 9) Abraham Ancer; 10) Harold Varner III; 11) Patrick Rodgers; 12) Jhonattan Vegas; 13) Sungjae Im; 14) Bubba Watson; 15) Justin Rose; 16) Sergio Garcia; 17) Kevin Kisner; 18) Matthew Wolff; 19) Adam Schenk; 20) Scottie Scheffler.
• Top 20 SG Approach: 1) Gary Woodland; 2) Justin Thomas; 3) Collin Morikawa; 4) Harold Varner III; 5) Daniel Berger; 6) Lucas Glover; 7) Joel Dahmen; 8) Bryson DeChambeau; 9) Doc Redman; 10) Abraham Ancer; 11) Bill Haas; 12) Tyler Duncan; 13) Chesson Hadley; 14) Brian Harman; 15) Pat Perez; 16) Corey Conners; 17) Viktor Hovland; 18) Branden Grace; 19) Xander Schauffele; 20) Christiaan Beziudenhout.
• Top 20 SG Around The Green: 1) Brian Stuard; 2) Bud Cauley; 3) Brian Harman; 4) Andrew Landry; 5) Patrick Reed; 6) Nick Watney; 7) Harry Higgs; 8) Brooks Koepka; 9) J.T. Poston; 10) Rafael Cabrera Bello; 11) Branden Grace; 12) Si Woo Kim; 13) Sergio Garcia; 14) Jason Dufner / Brian Gay; 16) Justin Thomas; 17) Talor Gooch; 18) Bronson Burgoon; 19) Kevin Kisner; 20) Billy Horschel.
• Top 20 SG Tee to Green: 1) Bryson DeChambeau; 2) Collin Morikawa; 3) Xander Schauffele; 4) Daniel Berger; 5) Justin Thomas; 6) Harold Varner III; 7) Abraham Ancer; 8) Jason Kokrak; 9) Justin Rose; 10) Gary Woodland; 11) Lucas Glover; 12) Bubba Watson; 13) Viktor Hovland; 14) Sungjae Im; 15) Kevin Kisner; 16) J.T. Poston 17) Rory McIlroy; 18) Bud Cauley; 19) Joel Dahmen; 20) Corey Conners.
• Top 20 SG Putting: 1) Jordan Spieth; 2) Patrick Reed; 3) Rory Sabbatini; 4) Matthew Fitzpatrick; 5) Justin Rose; 6) Jason Kokrak; 7) Daniel Berger; 8) Bubba Watson; 9) Rafael Cabrera Bello; 10) Brooks Koepka; 11) Patrick Rodgers; 12) J.T. Poston; 13) Xander Schauffele; 14) Gary Woodland; 15) Branden Grace; 16) Denny McCarthy; 17) Collin Morikawa; 18) Ian Poulter; 19) Mackenzie Hughes; 20) Sungjae Im.
• Top 20 SG Total: 1) Daniel Berger; 2) Collin Morikawa; 3) Bryson DeChambeau / Jason Kokrak / Jason Rose / Xander Schauffele; 7) Patrick Reed / Bubba Watson; 9) Gary Woodland; 10) Sungjae Im / J.T. Poston / Jordan Spieth / Justin Thomas; 14) Abraham Ancer / Patrick Rodgers / Rory Sabbatini; 17) Corey Conners / Joel Dahmen / Branden Grace / Harold Varner III.

Winners & Prices: 2019: Pan 160/1; 2018: Kodaira 250/1; 2017: Bryan 80/1; 2016: Grace 40/1; 2015: Furyk 25/1; 2014: Kuchar 18/1; 2013: McDowell 40/1; 2012: Pettersson 55/1; 2011: Snedeker 35/1; 2010: Furyk 14/1.  Past 6 Renewals Average: 96/1. Overall Average: 72/1. For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.

Historical Weather:

• 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 77. Wind SSE 10-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 76. Wind S 15-35 mph, with gusts to 40 mph. Play was suspended at 12:48 p.m. due to thunderstorms and resumed at 4:31 p.m. Play was suspended due to darkness at 7:47 p.m., with 56 players yet to complete their second rounds. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 69. Wind WSW 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. The second round resumed at 7:45 a.m., with the third round beginning with threesomes off split tees beginning at 11:10 a.m. Sunday: Sunny. High of 73. Wind W 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph.
• 2018: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind SSE 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 94. Wind SSE 7-13 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 97. Wind SSE 7-14 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 99. Wind ESE 5-10 mph.
• 2017: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 93. Wind S 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 98. Wind SW 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 96. Wind SSW 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind N 10-15 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind S at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy early turning to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Warm and humid, with a high of 86. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy early turning to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Warm and humid, with a high of 86. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph. Sunday: Due to early morning thunderstorms, the original tee times featuring twosomes off of one tee beginning at 7:30 a.m. were changed to a two-tee start with threesomes at 10:19 a.m. Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph
• 2015: Weather: Thursday: Cloudy, but drier in the afternoon, with highs reaching only into the lower 60s. North wind at 10-20 mph. A total of 1.3 inches of rain fell overnight and into the morning. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 76, with N wind at 7-12 mph. Saturday: Overcast, with a high of 76. Wind SE at 15-25 mph. Sunday: Due to the likeliness of inclement weather, final-round tee times were between 7-9 a.m. Cloudy with rain most of the day and a high of 79. Wind SSW at 10-20 mph.

Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Hilton Head, South Carolina, is here. Weather-wise will be pretty similar to what we saw in Fort Worth, Texas last week, but with some detail changes. 132mm of rain in the past 7 days here I think will lead to softer fairway conditions across the opening rounds at the very least. Temperatures of 26, right up to 31 degrees Celsius on Sunday, will also mean watered greens throughout the tournament. Nagging southerly breezes for the leaders on the weekend will just about keep a lid on scoring, so I expect a mid-teens contending score, with slightly easier scoring than we’ve seen over the past 3 renewals.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the 10 winners here at Heritage since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this:

• 2019, C.T. Pan (-13). 277 yards (55th), 51.8% fairways (59th), 58.3% greens in regulation (37th), 32’5″ proximity to hole (5th), 73.3 % scrambling (16th), 1.52 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2018, Satoshi Kodaira (-12). 272 yards (65th), 75.0% fairways (4th), 68.16% greens in regulation (7th), 29’6″ proximity to hole (1st), 73.9 % scrambling (13th), 1.74 putts per GIR (47th).
• 2017, Wesley Bryan (-13). 274 yards (50th), 55.4% fairways (55th), 55.6% greens in regulation (66th), 29’11” proximity to hole (7th), 84.4 % scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (16th).
• 2016, Branden Grace (-9). 280 yards (39th), 53.6% fairways (50th), 61.1% greens in regulation (14th), 37’8″ proximity to hole (39th), 78.6 % scrambling (3rd), 1.73 putts per GIR (21st).
• 2015, Jim Furyk (-18). 260 yards (75th), 76.8% fairways (7th), 69.4% greens in regulation (11th), proximity to hole 26’4″ (2nd), 95.5 % scrambling (1st), 1.70 putts per GIR (28th).
• 2014, Matt Kuchar (-11). 268 yards (56th), 73.2% fairways (7th), 73.6% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 31’8″ (6th), 73.7 % scrambling (11th), 1.72 putts per GIR (20th).
• 2013, Graeme McDowell (-9). 274 yards (51st), 75.0% fairways (5th), 66.7% greens in regulation (7th), proximity to hole 34’11” (31st), 79.2% scrambling (1st), 1.75 putts per GIR (25th).
• 2012, Carl Pettersson (-14). 279 yards (31st), 66.1% fairways (39th), 69.4% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 33’3″ (10th), 68.2% scrambling (15th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2011, Brandt Snedeker (-12). 271 yards (59th), 80.4% fairways (3rd), 61.1% greens in regulation (30th), proximity to hole 30’6″ (8th), 67.9% scrambling (17th), 1.59 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2010, Jim Furyk (-13). 271 yards (41st), 76.8% fairways (9th), 61.1% greens in regulation (17th), proximity to hole 29’0″ (1st), 82.1% scrambling (2nd), 1.66 putts per GIR (20th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

Driving Distance: 52nd, Driving Accuracy: 24th, Greens in Regulation: 19th, Proximity to Hole: 11th, Scrambling: 8th, Putting Average 18th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2019, C.T. Pan (-12). SG Off the Tee: 50th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 5th.
• 2018, Satoshi Kodaira (-12). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 65th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 16th.
• 2017, Wesley Bryan (-13). SG Off the Tee: 67th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 10th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 11th.
• 2016, Branden Grace (-9). SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 28th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 10th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 36th, SG Approach: 14th, SG Around the Green: 21st, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 11th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how Harbour Town sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

C.T. Pan (2019): “Those four holes just, first hole is always tough, the first tee shots. You know you’re in contention. And it’s always hard to having good start is very important to win this tournaments. Last night I look at the hole locations and they were kind of tough. No. 1 is front right, downwind. It’s hard to stop the ball. No. 2 is all the way back right and that’s hard to make a birdie. If you hit a good driver there’s a chance. No. 3 is a long hole. And No. 4 is greens, island green, secured by water. I made a double there yesterday so I did not have a good memory there. And that’s why I told myself just play your best, shoot even par or under and then of course it will get eventually easier and No. 5 is a par 5, which I did well, made birdie there. And No. 9, No. 10 and No. 12.

This course, obviously I’m not a long hitter, so it’s all about decision. Decision with the ball is very important out here. And I hit a lot of fairways, which works well. And I work on the low driver, as well. I did a lot of preparation for this week to get myself ready.”

Wesley Bryan (2017): “I mean this is one of the best golf courses that we’re going to play all year. A lot of the guys rave about it because you have to work the ball both ways off the tee. You have to work the ball both ways going into the green. You have to miss it in the right spots around the green to have a chance. And it just one of the only courses on Tour where you’ll see that you have to play every single shot in your bag. And I love it. I’m not a super technical guy, so the guy that kind of imagines shots going both ways. I work the ball probably a little more than the average guy out here. This is a course when I looked at the schedule starting off that this is one of the places I thought that I had the best chance to contend at. And I guess after all the dust settled my intuition was correct.”

Branden Grace (2016): “I like this place. It’s completely different. It’s short and fiddly. Obviously the winds do defend here. And there’s a couple of shots that I’ve got up my sleeve, that I like hitting, that I grew up hitting and I think it goes well with this place. It’s one of those golf courses that suits my eye. I grew up playing in the wind and I grew up playing fiddly courses like this. I would think this is a bit more of a ball-striker’s golf course. It doesn’t matter if you miss a couple of fairways, a couple of greens, you can get your way around it. I just like coming back to this place. I have spoken to Ernie in the past about this event. And he thought it’s one that’s really going to suit my eye. It reminds me a little bit of Fancourt Links back home, because it’s linksy. You really have to see your thoughts. You have to hit a couple of different shots, not shots that you hit often.”

Matt Kuchar: “It’s so unique, uniquely different, with the tree lined fairways, with the ability to basically recall and remember every hole. Every hole stands out. Even though you have a lot of holes that have similar characteristics of just tight on the left side, tight on the right side with trees, they have slight doglegs that make it exciting to play, make it exciting to try to truly play chess around this golf course, and positioning your tee shot in the right spot in the fairway. If it’s not, you get to play all sorts of fun recovery shots. If you’re off line, it’s not that your ball is necessarily in a hazard and you’re playing a drop. You find it and have a recovery shot, and you have a play. All the greens are made so that you do have a play. They’re basically on the same level as the fairway. They’re not perched up with bunkers everywhere, where you’re just trying to leave yourself a bunker shot. You can actually run them all up on the greens. They’re small greens. If you’re on the green, you have a shot at birdie. It’s a great layout, a great design, a memorable golf course. And I don’t think it necessarily rewards a typical type of player. It’s not a short hitter that always wins. You take Davis Love, who’s won here more than anybody, and he, in his prime, would have been longer than the longest guy we’ve got today. He could hit it further than anybody. So you have guys like Davis, that can overpower courses, that play well here. And then you’ve got guys like myself, Luke Donald, Graeme McDowell, Jim Furyk, as kind of not your power players, that can also play well here.”

Graeme McDowell: “You just have to stay really patient. You have to position the ball well at times. You have to be really aware of the wind on this golf course. It’s tough to pick them out on the back nine today. There’s some really tough shots on this golf course. And you’ve just got to pick your targets and flight the ball as well as you can. Some good memories and some good visuals for me on this golf course, and it was nice to plug back into some of those and make a few birdies.”

Jason Day: “It’s an amazing golf course. It really is. It’s one of the pretty much old school golf courses we get to play on the PGA Tour. Most courses become more modern, where they’re getting really long. And they’re getting difficult by length. This course shows that you don’t really need length to make a golf course difficult. For me, personally, there’s a lot of irons, long irons off the tees and a lot of 4 woods. I don’t believe, obviously with weather, how the weather goes this week will depend on if I’m going to pull the driver out a lot. But just thinking about it, there’s only maybe four or five drivers out there. Most of them are pretty much 4 woods and long irons. So it’s difficult. You’ve got to shape your shots both ways. And the greens are so small, you have to be really sharp with your irons to hit the greens.”

Jim Furyk: “I think it’s all about working the golf ball. There’s a lot of strategy involved. But you have to be able to control the golf ball. You have to hit high shots, low shots, curve it right to left, left to right. If you don’t have control of the golf ball you’re going to struggle at this golf course. You’re not going to skank it around for very long, and eventually you’re going to be in trouble. It’s about hitting fairways, but a lot of times it’s about hitting the proper side of the fairway, and that may depend on day to day, with the pin placements. Nine is a good example and 11 is a good example. If you don’t hit the right side of the fairway, you have to carve a shot around trees and hit it low or hit it high or hit it around branches. It’s actually a very fun golf course to play.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 10 Heritage winners:

• 2019 – C.T. Pan: Round 1: 53rd, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 5th.
• 2018 – Satoshi Kodaira: Round 1: 82nd, Round 2: 13th, Round 3: 12th.
• 2017 – Wesley Bryan: Round 1: 35th, Round 2: 10th, Round 3: 6th.
• 2016 – Branden Grace: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 21st, Round 3: 5th.
• 2015 – Jim Furyk: Round 1: 36th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 5th.
• 2014 – Matt Kuchar: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 7th.
• 2013 – Graeme McDowell: Round 1: 58th, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2012 – Carl Pettersson: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2011 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 28th, Round 2: 9th, Round 3: 17th.
• 2010 – Jim Furyk: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the last 10 Heritage winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

• 2019 – C.T. Pan: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2018 – Satoshi Kodaira: Round 1: 9 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 6 back.
• 2017 – Wesley Bryan: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2016 – Branden Grace: Round 1: Level, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2015 – Jim Furyk: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2014 – Matt Kuchar: Round 1: Level, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2013 – Graeme McDowell: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2012 – Carl Pettersson: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2011 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 6 back.
• 2010 – Jim Furyk: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 1 ahead.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• C.T. Pan: MC San Antonio/42nd Copperhead/72nd TPC Sawgrass/MC Bay Hill.
• Satoshi Kodaira: 28th Augusta/MC Bay Hill/54th Mexico/17th Perth.
• Wesley Bryan: 62nd Puerto Rico/69th Bay Hill/7th Copperhead/4th PGA National/4th Riviera.
• Branden Grace: MC Augusta/37th Copperhead/23rd Doral/MC PGA National/1st Qatar.
• Jim Furyk: MC Augusta/58th San Antonio/40th Copperhead/12th Doral/14th Riviera.
• Matt Kuchar: 5th Augusta/2nd Houston/4th San Antonio/38th Copperhead.
• Graeme McDowell: MC Augusta/45th Bay Hill/3rd Doral/9th PGA National.
• Carl Pettersson: 2nd Houston/MC Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/36th PGA National.
• Brandt Snedeker: 4th TPC San Antonio/15th Augusta/MC Bay Hill/4th Copperhead.
• Jim Furyk: MC Augusta/11th Bay Hill/1st Copperhead/37th Doral.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2019 – Lowry – AM -6/65 100/1.
• 2018 – Sabbatini – AM -7/64 125/1.
• 2017 – Cauley – PM -8/63 200/1.
• 2016 – Donald / Grace – AM/PM Split -5/66.
• 2015 – Every / McDowell – Both PM -5/66.
• 2014 – Kuchar/ Langley / McGirt – 1AM / 2PM Split -5/66.
• 2013 – Davis – AM -6/65.
• 2012 – Campbell / Knost / V Taylor – All PM -4/67.
• 2011 – Willis – AM -7/64.
• 2010 – Choi – AM -7/64.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 6 – Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy.
• 5 – Justin Thomas.
• 4 – Jason Day, Jim Furyk, Bill Haas, Zach Johnson, Patrick Reed.
• 3 – Ernie Els, Brian Gay, Billy Horschel, Matt Kuchar, Davis Love III, Ryan Palmer, Brandt Snedeker, Jordan Spieth.
• 2 – Daniel Berger, K.J. Choi, Luke Donald, Jason Dufner, Matt Every, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner, Scott Piercy, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith, Jimmy Walker, Bubba Watson.
• 1 – Ryan Armour, Wesley Bryan, Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan, Harris English, Branden Grace, Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, Tyrrell Hatton, Max Homa, Charles Howell III, Mackenzie Hughes, Sungjae Im, Patton Kizzire, Brooks Koepka, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Graeme McDowell, Keith Mitchell, Sebastian Munoz, C.T. Pan, Pat Perez, J.T. Poston, Rory Sabbatini, Charl Schwartzel, Webb Simpson, Scott Stallings, Kevin Streelman, Steve Stricker, Brian Stuard, Michael Thompson, Brendon Todd, Jhonattan Vegas, Nick Watney, Aaron Wise, Gary Woodland.

The RBC Heritage is traditionally the PGA Tour stop-off post The Masters. The field we usually see here is strong enough, but the impact of Covid-19 – with effectively 3 months of the PGA Tour lost – sees a field the likes of which we have never seen here at Harbour Town Golf Links. 160/1, 250/1 and 80/1 winners across the past 3 renewals here highlight a tournament where shocks happen regularly, but the depth of field this week and the high-class leaderboard we saw last week in Texas, may suggest that this high-price winner trend stops in 2020.

Harbour Town shares TifEagle Bermudagrass grass green complexes with Copperhead, home of the Valspar Championship, and, as mentioned before, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook shares Carolina course overtures in its setup. 7 of the 11 winners here from 2009 onwards had all finished in the top 10 around Copperhead prior to winning here and Branden Grace has gone onto finishing in the top 10 at the Valspar Championship post his victory here in 2017. Broadening the TifEagle link out slightly, excellent performances on the pure TifEagle greens featured at Kapalua, PGA National, Doral, Bay Hill (from 2016 onwards) and TPC Sawgrass (from 2017 onwards) link in perfectly as well.

Again extrapolating the TifEagle Bermudagrass angle and looking at the Plantation Course at Kapalua specifically, across the winners here from 2010 through 2015 all had top 5 finishes on the TifEagle greens on Maui. That link to TifEagle Bermudagrass performances shouldn’t be overlooked be that on the PGA Tour or the European Tour.

Last year the very out of sorts C.T. Pan took his maiden PGA Tour victory here. He didn’t follow this TifEagle pattern, but had PGA Tour Bermudagrass links. 6th on the Seaside Course at the 2016 RSM Classic highlights a player comfortable by the coast and he had also gone very close at the 2018 Wyndham Championship played on the Champions Bermudagrass greens at Sedgefield Country Club, finishing runner-up to 2011 Harbour Town victor Brand Snedeker.

RBC Heritage Tips. Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:25BST 15.6.20 but naturally subject to fluctuation.