RBC Heritage Tips 2022

 

Congratulations if you were on board Scottie Scheffler at 16/1 to win The Masters. Talk about obvious winners! Golf Betting System had a strong enough week with all Golf Betting System podcast members on Shane Lowry (I was on at 45/1). I also ended up with Justin Thomas at 14/1 also in the full each-way money, so all in all I can’t complain. Scheffler was imperious and saw off the challenge of Cameron Smith, eventually breaking the Australian into submission around Amen Corner.

Plenty of the Masters field have taken the relatively short journey down to the South Carolina coast for this week’s RBC Heritage at the stunning Harbour Town Golf Links. Royal Bank of Canada‘s sponsorship attracts a decent field the week after The Masters and we should be in for another interesting renewal on a tight course where strategic thinking is key. Daniel Berger, Matt Fitzpatrick, Dustin Johnson, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Webb Simpson, Cameron Smith, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas headline.

 RBC Heritage – Featured Bookmaker:

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Before we go into the detail surrounding the RBC Heritage we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: Harbour Town Golf Links is no typical coastal course; instead I categorise it as a Carolina track – i.e. sharing features with Quail Hollow, Sedgefield and Pinehurst No.2. It also has extremely close form associations with Copperhead at Innisbrook Resort in Florida, which plays far more as a Carolina-type course than a typical Florida track. Carolina courses are traditionally tree-lined, feature doglegs and narrow sight lines from the tee.

Harbour Town itself is a Pete Dye design that also features tiny dome-shaped Bermuda TifEagle greens (putting surfaces were re-laid for the 2016 renewal) that are incredibly difficult to hit in regulation. Hitting fairways is an advantage to minimise approach shots being blocked by trees, and it’s very much a golf course where ball-striking and creative shot-shaping are required to get close to tricky pin positions.

Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head, South Carolina: Designer: Pete Dye with 2000 re-design; Course Type: Carolina, Mid-Score; Par: 71; Length: 7,121 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 18; Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass; Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass 0.75″; Greens: 3,700 sq.ft average TifEagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimp: 11-11.5 ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 72.29 (+1.29), Difficulty Rank 9 of 49 courses. 2013: 72.04 (+1.04), Difficulty Rank 11 of 43 courses. 2014: 72.04 (+1.04), Rank 9 of 48 courses. 2015: 70.49 (-0.51), Rank 26 of 52 courses. 2016: 72.29 (+1.29), Rank 8 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.68 (-0.32), Rank of 29 of 50 courses. 2018: 70.85 (-0.15), Rank 19 of 51 courses. 2019: 71.17 (+0.17), Rank 11 of 49 courses. 2020: 69.14 (-1.86), Rank 37 of 41 courses. 2021: 70.33 (-0.67), Rank 26 of 51 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Harbour Town Golf Links, and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
• Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
• PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
• Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Pete Dye designs include:

• Austin Country Club – WGC Dell Matchplay since 2016
• Crooked Stick – 2012 and 2016 BMW Championship
• Ocean Course – Kiawah Island – 2012 + 2021 PGA Championship
• Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass – The Players Championship
• TPC River Highlands – The Travelers
• TPC Louisiana – Zurich Classic of New Orleans
• TPC Stadium, PGA West – The American Express since 2016
• Whistling Straits – 2010 and 2015 PGA Championship

Course Overview: Harbour Town Golf Links is a specialised test that appeals to players who thrive on gnarly TifEagle Bermudagrass putting surfaces and who have a short game to cope with the inevitable missed greens.

Undoubtedly a shot-makers course, precision from the tee rather than brute power is the key this week to avoid live oaks, pine trees and strategically placed bunkers. Greens which average only 3,700 sq.ft. are typically dome-shaped (a Dye design trait) and that’s a critical point this week because even the very best ball strikers will miss around 18 to 20 greens over the week, so sound scrambling is essential. Harbour Town Golf Links pretty much plays as tough as the wind conditions dictate – benign and soft course conditions in the past have seen plotters reach scores of –19/265 to -22/262. If it’s firm and windy, sub -10/274 can suffice.

With fresh TifEagle Bermudagrass putting surfaces laid for 2016, in April they feature Poa Trivialis overseed. Primarily though the same skills-sets are key year-to-year: power hitters who have little regard for strategy are at a distinct disadvantage and Greens in Regulation numbers here are always in the top 10 toughest on the PGA Tour, even when the wind doesn’t blow as per 2015. That’s hardly surprising as the Dye design features green complexes which are the smallest on Tour.

At a test where hitting 70% greens in regulation is a tough task, the ability to scramble across the greens missed is absolutely essential – those who struggle to get up and down simply haemorrhage too many bogeys. For reference look at the Key Skill sets analysis further into this preview. The TifEagle Bermudagrass Poa Trivialis greens are also tricky for putts from 10-15 feet and 20-25 feet making another key requirement the ability to hit the ball close on approaches. The course though rewards all-round ability. Look for those who can take advantage of scoreable conditions across both the par-4s and the par-5s. Players have plenty of opportunities around Harbour Town with wedge in hand.

RBC Heritage Winners: 2021: Stewart Cink (-19); 2020: Webb Simpson (-22); 2019: C.T. Pan (-12); 2018: Satoshi Kodaira (-12); 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13); 2016: Branden Grace (-9); 2015: Jim Furyk (-18); 2014: Matt Kuchar (-11); 2013: Graeme McDowell (-9); 2012: Carl Pettersson (-14); 2011: Brandt Snedeker (-12); 2010: Jim Furyk (-13).

Cut Line: 2021: -2; 2020: -4; 2019: E; 2018: E.

Lead Score Progression:

• 2021: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -16; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -19.
• 2020: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -22.
• 2019: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -10; Round 4 -12.
• 2018: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -12.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats | SG Stats

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Cameron Smith, Daniel Berger, Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Kevin Na and Russell Knox.

Tournament Winners & Prices: 2021: Cink 150/1; 2020: Simpson 30/1; 2019: Pan 160/1; 2018: Kodaira 250/1; 2017: Bryan 80/1; 2016: Grace 40/1; 2015: Furyk 25/1; 2014: Kuchar 18/1; 2013: McDowell 40/1; 2012: Pettersson 55/1; 2011: Snedeker 35/1; 2010: Furyk 14/1. Past 8 Renewals Average: 94/1; Overall Average: 74/1.

For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.

Historical Weather:

• 2021: Thursday: Cloudy. High of 72. Wind WSW 10-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 67. Wind NE 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 70. Wind S 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 73. Wind SSW 7-14 mph.
• 2020: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind SE 10-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind ESE 10-15 mph. Play was suspended due to a dangerous weather situation at 5:42 p.m. and resumed at 7:42 p.m. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 85. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 87. Wind S 5-10 mph. Due to a dangerous weather situation, play was suspended from 2:35 p.m. until 5:21 p.m. (2 hours, 46 minutes).
• 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 77. Wind SSE 10-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 76. Wind S 15-35 mph, with gusts to 40 mph. Play was suspended at 12:48 p.m. due to thunderstorms and resumed at 4:31 p.m. Play was suspended due to darkness at 7:47 p.m., with 56 players yet to complete their second rounds. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 69. Wind WSW 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. The second round resumed at 7:45 a.m., with the third round beginning with threesomes off split tees beginning at 11:10 a.m. Sunday: Sunny. High of 73. Wind W 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph.
• 2018: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind SSE 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 94. Wind SSE 7-13 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 97. Wind SSE 7-14 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 99. Wind ESE 5-10 mph.
• 2017: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 93. Wind S 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 98. Wind SW 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 96. Wind SSW 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind N 10-15 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind S at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy early turning to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Warm and humid, with a high of 86. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy early turning to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Warm and humid, with a high of 86. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph. Sunday: Due to early morning thunderstorms, the original tee times featuring twosomes off of one tee beginning at 7:30 a.m. were changed to a two-tee start with threesomes at 10:19 a.m. Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSE at 10-15 mph
• 2015: Weather: Thursday: Cloudy, but drier in the afternoon, with highs reaching only into the lower 60s. North wind at 10-20 mph. A total of 1.3 inches of rain fell overnight and into the morning. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 76, with N wind at 7-12 mph. Saturday: Overcast, with a high of 76. Wind SE at 15-25 mph. Sunday: Due to the likeliness of inclement weather, final-round tee times were between 7-9 a.m. Cloudy with rain most of the day and a high of 79. Wind SSW at 10-20 mph.

Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Hilton Head, South Carolina, is here.

It’s been the driest build-up on Hilton Head Island prior to the RBC Heritage since my records began in 2013. 17mm (0.7″ inch) fell last week, but I’m expecting plenty of roll on the fairways from the very outset. And with sub 50% chance of thunderstorms throughout tournament week, I expect releasing greens come Saturday, which is not uncommon here. Temperatures will be pleasant at 21-24 degrees Celsius meaning over-watering of the greens won’t be required. Gusting 20mph winds will also be a feature of Thursday and Friday – hopefully the draw will be level enough.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Genesis Invitational which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Players’ rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Shane Lowry; 2) Ben Martin; 3) Corey Conners; 4) Luke List; 5) Kevin Streelman; 6) Collin Morikawa; 7) Dustin Johnson / Sebastian Munoz / Mito Pereira; 10) Matthew Fitzpatrick /  Justin Thomas / Aaron Wise; 13) Joaquin Niemann; 14) 14) Brian Harman; 15) Davis Riley; 16) Cameron Young; 17) J.J. Spaun; 18) Tom Hoge; 19) Anirban Lahiri; 20) Joe Dahmen / Matthew NeSmith / Alex Smalley; 23) Lucas Glover / James Hahn; 25) Charles Howell III / Russell Knox.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Cameron Smith; 2) Luke Donald; 3) Billy Horschel; 4) Russell Henley; 5) Shane Lowry / Justin Thomas; 7) Nate Lashley; 8) Alex Noren; 9) Dylan Frittelli; 10) Patton Kizzire; 11) Dustin Johnson / Danny Lee; 13) Corey Conners; 14) Joaquin Niemann; 15) Adam Hadwin / Chris Kirk; 17) Nick Watney / Aaron Wise; 19) Wesley Bryan / Henrik Norlander; 21) Collin Morikawa / Cameron Tringale; 23) Tyrrell Hatton / C.T. Pan / Erik van Rooyen.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Cameron Smith; 2) Tommy Fleetwood; 3) Daniel Berger; 4) Matt Fitzpatrick; 5) Patrick Cantlay; 6) William McGirt; 7) Scott Stallings; 8) Kevin Kisner; 9) Matt Kuchar; 10) Danny Willett; 11) Joaquin Niemann; 12) Luke List / Harold Varner III; 14) Justin Thomas; 15) Dylan Frittelli; 16) Brice Garnett / Chris Kirk; 18) Adam Hadwin / Davis Riley / Brian Stuard; 21) C.T. Pan; 22) Jordan Spieth; 23) Corey Conners / Beau Hossler / Pat Perez.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Shane Lowry; 2) Justin Thomas; 3) Alex Noren; 4) Corey Conners / Chris Kirk / Cameron Smith; 7) Sebastian Munoz; 8) Matt Fitzpatrick / Billy Horschel / Nate Lashley; 11) Russell Henley / Mito Pereira; 13) Joaquin Niemann; 14) Kevin Streelman; 15) Dylan Frittelli / Adam Hadwin; 17) Russell Knox / C.T. Pan; 19) Dustin Johnson / Cameron Young; 21) Daniel Berger / Aaron Wise; 23) Tom Hoge; 24) Luke List; 25) Tommy Fleetwood / Davis Riley / Collin Morikawa.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Sepp Straka; 2) Martin Trainer; 3) Shane Lowry; 4) Cameron Smith; 5) Beau Hossler; 6) Daniel Berger / Anirban Lahiri / Justin Thomas; 9) Denny McCarthy; 10) Brian Gay / Tyrrell Hatton; 12) Tommy Fleetwood; 13) Chesson Hadley; 14) Kevin Streelman; 15) Russell Henley / Matt Kuchar / Brendon Todd; 18) Sungjae Im / Bill Haas / Doc Redman; 21) Michael Gligic / Jason Kokrak / Kevin Kisner / Troy Merritt; 25) Zach Johnson / Sam Ryder / Michael Thompson.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Shane Lowry; 2) Cameron Smith; 3) Justin Thomas; 4) Alex Noren; 5) Russell Henley; 6) Sebastian Munoz / Kevin Streelman; 8) Tyrrell Hatton / Sepp Straka; 10) Corey Conners / Chris Kirk; 12) Matt Fitzpatrick / Billy Horschel; 14) Dylan Frittelli / Adam Hadwin; 16) Tommy Fleetwood; 17) Dustin Johnson; 18) Joaquin Niemann; 19) Mito Pereira; 20) Nate Lashley; 21) Kevin Kisner / Matt Kuchar / C.T. Pan / Cameron Young; 25) Daniel Berger / Beau Hossler / Maverick McNealy.

For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Harbour Town Golf Links since 2016 click here.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners of the RBC Heritage since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:

• 2021, Stewart Cink (-19). 312 yards (3rd), 55.4% fairways (57th), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 32’5″ proximity to hole (11th), 81.3 % scrambling (4th), 1.63 putts per GIR (7th).
• 2020, Webb Simpson (-22). 283 yards (33rd), 67.9% fairways (33rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (12th), 30’5″ proximity to hole (33rd), 73.7% scrambling (27th), 1.55 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2019, C.T. Pan (-13). 277 yards (55th), 51.8% fairways (59th), 58.3% greens in regulation (37th), 32’5″ proximity to hole (5th), 73.3 % scrambling (16th), 1.52 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2018, Satoshi Kodaira (-12). 272 yards (65th), 75.0% fairways (4th), 68.1% greens in regulation (7th), 29’6″ proximity to hole (1st), 73.9 % scrambling (13th), 1.74 putts per GIR (47th).
• 2017, Wesley Bryan (-13). 274 yards (50th), 55.4% fairways (55th), 55.6% greens in regulation (66th), 29’11” proximity to hole (7th), 84.4 % scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (16th).
• 2016, Branden Grace (-9). 280 yards (39th), 53.6% fairways (50th), 61.1% greens in regulation (14th), 37’8″ proximity to hole (39th), 78.6 % scrambling (3rd), 1.73 putts per GIR (21st).
• 2015, Jim Furyk (-18). 260 yards (75th), 76.8% fairways (7th), 69.4% greens in regulation (11th), proximity to hole 26’4″ (2nd), 95.5 % scrambling (1st), 1.70 putts per GIR (28th).
• 2014, Matt Kuchar (-11). 268 yards (56th), 73.2% fairways (7th), 73.6% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 31’8″ (6th), 73.7 % scrambling (11th), 1.72 putts per GIR (20th).
• 2013, Graeme McDowell (-9). 274 yards (51st), 75.0% fairways (5th), 66.7% greens in regulation (7th), proximity to hole 34’11” (31st), 79.2% scrambling (1st), 1.75 putts per GIR (25th).
• 2012, Carl Pettersson (-14). 279 yards (31st), 66.1% fairways (39th), 69.4% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 33’3″ (10th), 68.2% scrambling (15th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2011, Brandt Snedeker (-12). 271 yards (59th), 80.4% fairways (3rd), 61.1% greens in regulation (30th), proximity to hole 30’6″ (8th), 67.9% scrambling (17th), 1.59 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2010, Jim Furyk (-13). 271 yards (41st), 76.8% fairways (9th), 61.1% greens in regulation (17th), proximity to hole 29’0″ (1st), 82.1% scrambling (2nd), 1.66 putts per GIR (20th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

Driving Distance: 47th, Driving Accuracy: 27th, Greens in Regulation: 17th, Proximity to Hole: 13th, Scrambling: 9th, Putting Average 16th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2021, Stewart Cink (-19). SG Off the Tee: 20th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 5th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 25th.
• 2020, Webb Simpson (-22). SG Off the Tee: 34th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 33rd, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 2nd.
• 2019, C.T. Pan (-12). SG Off the Tee: 50th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 5th.
• 2018, Satoshi Kodaira (-12). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 65th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 16th.
• 2017, Wesley Bryan (-13). SG Off the Tee: 67th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 10th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 11th.
• 2016, Branden Grace (-9). SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 28th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 10th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 33rd, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 21st, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 12th.

Traditional Skill Set Averages:

• Driving Distance: 33rd, Driving Accuracy: 26th, Greens in Regulation: 19th, Scrambling: 22nd, Putting Average 2nd.

Let’s take a view from players as to how Harbour Town sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Stewart Cink (2021): “The course hasn’t really changed that much. It’s been through a couple renovations, added a few tees here and there. It’s the same course for the most part. There is very little difference out there. It’s just a great course. The kind of course that stays the test of time because it’s not, it has some innate defence against distance out there. It’s hard to say what that is, but we’re all hitting the ball a lot farther than we used to, but this course plays about the same. It’s a fun course to play. It’s quite different.

It’s a little bit odd here. The ball,  you don’t get the full distance. You have to make adjustments, playing for some change and your yardages, and that’s something we adjust to pretty well. Reagan is doing a great job here already. Doesn’t take long but you have to pay attention to it. So I’m comfortable with that kind of stuff here, wind direction, some the trees, the corridors where the wind funnels and sometimes blows across the top. You get used to what southwest wind does here or northeast wind on all these holes.

I think it’s just the way this course plays out generally on the weekends when it’s dry. It’s generally much more difficult later in the day because the greens are firmer, the grass is just not really,  there’s not as much hold in the grass, and the early rounds are really scoreable. That’s just the way it’s been here for years, and if you’re near the lead in this tournament on Saturday and Sunday, you’ve got to be prepared for that. I did it myself, came from ten back, I think, or nine back one year. I’ve been there, and I know what it’s like to be on the early wave. But tomorrow I’m going to be late, so I’ve got to prepare and just keep being really solid.”

Webb Simpson (2020): “I think you have to really shape it off the tee. You’ve got to think, you know, any hole could be two or three clubs off the tee that makes sense. So I love that. I love small greens. I love small targets. Paul said that I’m the worst driver of the ball with a really open fairway and one of the best with a really tight fairway. So I think, when it’s really wide, I’m not thinking or focusing. And also just being, I think, at the beach. I’ve always seemed to play well here and RSM, just being near the ocean. I grew up playing golf at the beach in Wilmington. So it just feels nice to be close to the beach. Yeah, I’ve had some of my best finishes these weeks.

I came in here Tuesday not knowing what to expect, and I realized they were softer than April. Honestly, with no overseed, the grain’s more exposed, so we can read them better, I think, and be more confident. The grain’s pretty strong here. So far, the grain really hasn’t failed us. It’s done what the grain said each time. So having a guy like Paul who grew up in Florida and knows Bermuda greens well, it gives me confidence as a player.

It’s very satisfying knowing like I’m not near as long as some of these guys and I’m able to kind of use my skills of distance control and shot shape to kind of pick me back up when I’m 40 yards or 30 yards behind these guys. A good example is you look at WGC Mexico, where I’ve played very poorly there, is that at that altitude, you take away my distance control strength because it’s more of a guess there. My distance control there has been terrible for three years. You put me anywhere else besides a place with altitude, and that my distance control and shot shape allows me to play well and stay up with these guys.”

C.T. Pan (2019): “Those four holes just, first hole is always tough, the first tee shots. You know you’re in contention. And it’s always hard to having good start is very important to win this tournaments. Last night I look at the hole locations and they were kind of tough. No. 1 is front right, downwind. It’s hard to stop the ball. No. 2 is all the way back right and that’s hard to make a birdie. If you hit a good driver there’s a chance. No. 3 is a long hole. And No. 4 is greens, island green, secured by water. I made a double there yesterday so I did not have a good memory there. And that’s why I told myself just play your best, shoot even par or under and then of course it will get eventually easier and No. 5 is a par 5, which I did well, made birdie there. And No. 9, No. 10 and No. 12.

This course, obviously I’m not a long hitter, so it’s all about decision. Decision with the ball is very important out here. And I hit a lot of fairways, which works well. And I work on the low driver, as well. I did a lot of preparation for this week to get myself ready.”

Wesley Bryan (2017): “I mean this is one of the best golf courses that we’re going to play all year. A lot of the guys rave about it because you have to work the ball both ways off the tee. You have to work the ball both ways going into the green. You have to miss it in the right spots around the green to have a chance. And it just one of the only courses on Tour where you’ll see that you have to play every single shot in your bag. And I love it. I’m not a super technical guy, so the guy that kind of imagines shots going both ways. I work the ball probably a little more than the average guy out here. This is a course when I looked at the schedule starting off that this is one of the places I thought that I had the best chance to contend at. And I guess after all the dust settled my intuition was correct.”

Branden Grace (2016): “I like this place. It’s completely different. It’s short and fiddly. Obviously the winds do defend here. And there’s a couple of shots that I’ve got up my sleeve, that I like hitting, that I grew up hitting and I think it goes well with this place. It’s one of those golf courses that suits my eye. I grew up playing in the wind and I grew up playing fiddly courses like this. I would think this is a bit more of a ball-striker’s golf course. It doesn’t matter if you miss a couple of fairways, a couple of greens, you can get your way around it. I just like coming back to this place. I have spoken to Ernie in the past about this event. And he thought it’s one that’s really going to suit my eye. It reminds me a little bit of Fancourt Links back home, because it’s linksy. You really have to see your thoughts. You have to hit a couple of different shots, not shots that you hit often.”

Matt Kuchar: “It’s so unique, uniquely different, with the tree lined fairways, with the ability to basically recall and remember every hole. Every hole stands out. Even though you have a lot of holes that have similar characteristics of just tight on the left side, tight on the right side with trees, they have slight doglegs that make it exciting to play, make it exciting to try to truly play chess around this golf course, and positioning your tee shot in the right spot in the fairway. If it’s not, you get to play all sorts of fun recovery shots. If you’re off line, it’s not that your ball is necessarily in a hazard and you’re playing a drop. You find it and have a recovery shot, and you have a play. All the greens are made so that you do have a play. They’re basically on the same level as the fairway. They’re not perched up with bunkers everywhere, where you’re just trying to leave yourself a bunker shot. You can actually run them all up on the greens. They’re small greens. If you’re on the green, you have a shot at birdie. It’s a great layout, a great design, a memorable golf course. And I don’t think it necessarily rewards a typical type of player. It’s not a short hitter that always wins. You take Davis Love, who’s won here more than anybody, and he, in his prime, would have been longer than the longest guy we’ve got today. He could hit it further than anybody. So you have guys like Davis, that can overpower courses, that play well here. And then you’ve got guys like myself, Luke Donald, Graeme McDowell, Jim Furyk, as kind of not your power players, that can also play well here.”

Graeme McDowell: “You just have to stay really patient. You have to position the ball well at times. You have to be really aware of the wind on this golf course. It’s tough to pick them out on the back nine today. There’s some really tough shots on this golf course. And you’ve just got to pick your targets and flight the ball as well as you can. Some good memories and some good visuals for me on this golf course, and it was nice to plug back into some of those and make a few birdies.”

Jason Day: “It’s an amazing golf course. It really is. It’s one of the pretty much old school golf courses we get to play on the PGA Tour. Most courses become more modern, where they’re getting really long. And they’re getting difficult by length. This course shows that you don’t really need length to make a golf course difficult. For me, personally, there’s a lot of irons, long irons off the tees and a lot of 4 woods. I don’t believe, obviously with weather, how the weather goes this week will depend on if I’m going to pull the driver out a lot. But just thinking about it, there’s only maybe four or five drivers out there. Most of them are pretty much 4 woods and long irons. So it’s difficult. You’ve got to shape your shots both ways. And the greens are so small, you have to be really sharp with your irons to hit the greens.”

Jim Furyk: “I think it’s all about working the golf ball. There’s a lot of strategy involved. But you have to be able to control the golf ball. You have to hit high shots, low shots, curve it right to left, left to right. If you don’t have control of the golf ball you’re going to struggle at this golf course. You’re not going to skank it around for very long, and eventually you’re going to be in trouble. It’s about hitting fairways, but a lot of times it’s about hitting the proper side of the fairway, and that may depend on day to day, with the pin placements. Nine is a good example and 11 is a good example. If you don’t hit the right side of the fairway, you have to carve a shot around trees and hit it low or hit it high or hit it around branches. It’s actually a very fun golf course to play.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the RBC Heritage since 2010:

• 2021 – Stewart Cink: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2020 – Webb Simpson: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2019 – C.T. Pan: Round 1: 53rd, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 5th.
• 2018 – Satoshi Kodaira: Round 1: 82nd, Round 2: 13th, Round 3: 12th.
• 2017 – Wesley Bryan: Round 1: 35th, Round 2: 10th, Round 3: 6th.
• 2016 – Branden Grace: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 21st, Round 3: 5th.
• 2015 – Jim Furyk: Round 1: 36th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 5th.
• 2014 – Matt Kuchar: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 7th.
• 2013 – Graeme McDowell: Round 1: 58th, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2012 – Carl Pettersson: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2011 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 28th, Round 2: 9th, Round 3: 17th.
• 2010 – Jim Furyk: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of the RBC Heritage winners since 2010:

• 2021 – Stewart Cink: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 5 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
• 2020 – Webb Simpson: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: level.
• 2019 – C.T. Pan: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2018 – Satoshi Kodaira: Round 1: 9 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 6 back.
• 2017 – Wesley Bryan: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2016 – Branden Grace: Round 1: Level, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2015 – Jim Furyk: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2014 – Matt Kuchar: Round 1: Level, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2013 – Graeme McDowell: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2012 – Carl Pettersson: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2011 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 6 back.
• 2010 – Jim Furyk: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 1 ahead.

Form of RBC Heritage winners since 2010:

• Stewart Cink: 12th Augusta/19th PGA National/MC TPC Sawgrass/MC Riviera.
• Webb Simpson: MC Colonial/61st Players/1st TPC Scottsdale/3rd Waialae.
• C.T. Pan: MC San Antonio/42nd Copperhead/72nd TPC Sawgrass/MC Bay Hill.
• Satoshi Kodaira: 28th Augusta/MC Bay Hill/54th Mexico/17th Perth.
• Wesley Bryan: 62nd Puerto Rico/69th Bay Hill/7th Copperhead/4th PGA National/4th Riviera.
• Branden Grace: MC Augusta/37th Copperhead/23rd Doral/MC PGA National/1st Qatar.
• Jim Furyk: MC Augusta/58th San Antonio/40th Copperhead/12th Doral/14th Riviera.
• Matt Kuchar: 5th Augusta/2nd Houston/4th San Antonio/38th Copperhead.
• Graeme McDowell: MC Augusta/45th Bay Hill/3rd Doral/9th PGA National.
• Carl Pettersson: 2nd Houston/MC Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/36th PGA National.
• Brandt Snedeker: 4th TPC San Antonio/15th Augusta/MC Bay Hill/4th Copperhead.
• Jim Furyk: MC Augusta/11th Bay Hill/1st Copperhead/37th Doral.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2021 – Smith – PM -9/62 40/1.
• 2020 – Hubbard / Poulter – Both AM -7/64 150/1 & 70/1.
• 2019 – Lowry – AM -6/65 100/1.
• 2018 – Sabbatini – AM -7/64 125/1.
• 2017 – Cauley – PM -8/63 200/1.
• 2016 – Donald / Grace – AM/PM Split -5/66.
• 2015 – Every / McDowell – Both PM -5/66.
• 2014 – Kuchar/ Langley / McGirt – 1AM / 2PM Split -5/66.
• 2013 – Davis – AM -6/65.
• 2012 – Campbell / Knost / V Taylor – All PM -4/67.
• 2011 – Willis – AM -7/64.
• 2010 – Choi – AM -7/64.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 7 – Dustin Johnson.
• 6 – Justin Thomas.
• 4 – Jim Furyk, Brian Gay, Bill Haas, Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth.
• 3 –  Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Cameron Smith, Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Stenson, Camilo Villegas.
• 2 –  Daniel Berger, Luke Donald, Rickie Fowler, Russell Henley, Chris Kirk, Davis Love III, Scott Piercy, Webb Simpson, Robert Streb, Hudson Swafford, Bubba Watson.
• 1 – Wesley Bryan, Jonathan Byrd, Patrick Cantlay, Stewart Cink, Corey Conners, Tyler Duncan, Branden Grace, Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, James Hahn, Tyrrell Hatton, Jim Herman, Garrick Higgo, Charles Howell III, Mackenzie Hughes, Sungjae Im, Sung Kang, Patton Kizzire, Satoshi Kodaira, Jason Kokrak, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Graeme McDowell, Collin Morikawa, Sebastian Munoz, Kevin Na, Carlos Ortiz, C.T. Pan, Pat Perez, J.T Poston, Charl Schwartzel, J.J. Spaun, Scott Stallings, Sepp Straka,  Kevin Streelman, Brian Stuard, Nick Taylor, Michael Thompson, Brendon Todd, Nick Watney, Aaron Wise.

Harbour Town is undoubtedly a course where patience, experience and guile is rewarded. Played traditionally the week after Augusta (apart from 2011 when TPC San Antonio was played the week in between, and post-Covid-19 Resumption in 2020), it won’t surprise you that the majority of recent champions played down the road in Georgia at The Masters prior to triumphing here, namely Stewart Cink, Satoshi Kodaira, Branden Grace, Jim Furyk (twice), Matt Kuchar, Graeme McDowell, Brandt Snedeker (he’d also finished 4th the week before at TPC San Antonio) and Boo Weekley who successfully defended. Four exceptions to that trend come in the form of Brian Gay (2009), Carl Pettersson (2012), Wesley Bryan (2016) and C.T. Pan (2019). Gay and Pettersson were experienced professionals who both have a good record on tight Par 70s. Wesley Bryan was both a Tour and tournament rookie who many, despite a great start on the PGA Tour, discarded due to his lack of course experience. Unfortunately few had read this article prior to his victory! And 2019 saw C.T. Pan win after landing nothing better than a 42nd place in his 9 prior appearances that year.

Harbour Town shares TifEagle Bermudagrass (they are overseeded with Poa Trivialis in April) green complexes with Copperhead, home of the Valspar Championship, and as mentioned before, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook shares Carolina course overtures in its setup. Here’s a trend: 9 of the 13 winners here from 2009 onwards had all finished in the top 10 around Copperhead prior to winning here and Branden Grace has gone onto finishing in the top 10 at the Valspar Championship post his victory here in 2017. Broadening the TifEagle link out slightly, excellent performances on the pure TifEagle greens featured at Kapalua, PGA National, Doral, Bay Hill (from 2016 onwards) and TPC Sawgrass (from 2017 onwards) link in perfectly as well.

Again extrapolating the TifEagle Bermudagrass angle and looking at the Plantation Course at Kapalua specifically, across the winners here from 2010 through 2015, plus Webb Simpson (2020) and Stewart Cink from last year, all had top-5 finishes on the TifEagle greens on Maui. That link to TifEagle Bermudagrass performances shouldn’t be overlooked be that on the PGA Tour or the DP World Tour.

2019 saw the very out of sorts C.T. Pan take his maiden PGA Tour victory here. He did not follow this TifEagle pattern, but had PGA Tour Bermudagrass links. 6th on the Seaside Course at the 2016 RSM Classic highlights a player comfortable by the coast and he had also gone very close at the 2018 Wyndham Championship played on the Champion Bermudagrass greens at Sedgefield Country Club, finishing runner-up to 2011 Harbour Town victor Brandt Snedeker.

My selections are as follows:

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:20BST 11.4.22 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.