Rocket Mortgage Classic Tips 2020

Congratulations to Dustin Johnson backers who scored last week at anything up to 30/1. So we’ve seen 66/1 (Daniel Berger) 30/1 (Webb Simpson) and 30/1 (DJ) winners across the 3 weeks of action since the PGA Tour re-start.  It’s a great pattern for punters, but the Rocket Mortgage Classic this week sees a weak field and the top names at very, very short prices.

Before we talk the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the number of new visitors to Golf Betting System is sure to be strong with new readers and those new to golf betting full-stop.  Welcome to you all and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published Tuesday), the Golf Betting Show on YouTube and our hugely popular private group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

The Rocket Mortgage Classic is the weakest field that we’ve seen since the return of the PGA Tour and that’s understandable with the world’s best players needing a week off. This is only the second renewal of a tournament which was won 12 months ago by Nate Lashley. Undoubtedly Quicken Loans were the driving force behind the PGA Tour arriving in ‘Motor City’ and the Detroit Golf Club will host this tournament for 4 years across 2019 – 2022. Sponsorship comes in the form of Quicken’s online Rocket Mortgage brand. Players in this week’s field include Quicken-sponsored Rickie Fowler, plus Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, Bryson DeChambeau, Tyrell Hatton, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama and Bubba Watson.

 Rocket Mortgage Classic – Featured Bookmaker:

Paddy Power are attacking this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic with their market-leading leading 8 places each-way at 1/5 odds. On golf they offered the most each-way places in 2018, 2019 and so far lead the way in 2020 also.

 8 Places Each-Way at the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic with William Hill

Not to be outdone, William Hill are also offering the same each way terms as Paddy Power this week. As ever, it’s worth checking the prices on your selections with both bookmakers before placing your bets:

Course Guide: Detroit Golf Club, is 10 miles north-west of central Detroit. An historic club established in 1899, we’re dealing with a hybrid of 2 courses this week, namely the North (17 holes) and South (3rd hole) course. Both are Donald Ross original courses featuring his classic architecture, with this week’s championship holes having seen phased modernisation and construction preparation since 2014.

It’s a Par 72 test at 7,340 yards, which features the standard breakdown of 4 par-3s, 10-par-4s and 4 par-5s. An old-style, tree-lined track, the course received positive reviews on its PGA Tour debut 12 months ago. As per Donald Ross design classics, Detroit features uneven fairway lies and plenty of front-to-back contoured and multi-layered undulations within green complexes.

Detroit Golf Club, Detroit, Michigan: Designer: Donald Ross 1916; Course Type: Classical, Resort; Par: 72; Length: 7,340 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 1; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Bluegrass mix 3.5″; Greens: 5,150 sq.ft average featuring Poa Annua with Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft. 2019: 70.11 (-1.89), Rank 42 of 49 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Detroit Golf Club and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• Detroit Golf Club: 250 yards from tee: 34 yards wide; 275:34; 300:35 325:34; 350:33.
• TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
• Colonial: 250 yards from tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:27; 325:26; 350:23.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
• PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
• Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Donald Ross designs include:

• Pinehurst Number 2 – 2014 U.S. Open
• East Course at Oak Hill – 2013 PGA Championship
• Sedgefield CC – Wyndham Championship
• Plainfield – 2011 & 2015 Barclays
• Aronimink GC – 2010 & 2011 AT&T National + 2018 BMW Championship
• East Lake GC – Tour Championship

Course Overview: Detroit Golf Club is a Donald Ross 1916 original which has received some modernisation work of late. 5 new tees were built in 2018 to add length to the course, but even so a 7,340 yard Par 72 is short from a PGA Tour perspective.  This week we’re dealing with a classical, tree-lined course, with water only featuring on the par-4 14th hole. Greens feature the Donald Ross trademark back-to-front pitch, surrounded by tightly mown run-offs into collection areas. The green complexes were watered 12 months ago to make the course player-friendly, but player comments all note how contoured the green complexes are here. Downhill putts are difficult to attack, so distance control to position approach shots below the pin proves to be critical here. There’s lots of movement and contours on green complexes, which feature 80% Poa Annua and 20% Bentgrass within them.

The layout itself features par-5s that are 635 yards (4th), 552 yards (7th), 555 yards (14th) and 577 yards (17th), which means 3 of them are reachable to the more powerful drivers. But it’s the par-4s that were vulnerable last year with 5 of them measuring in at sub-450 yards. Indeed the 4th (387 yards), 8th (372 yards) and 13th (393 yards) are sub-400 yards. Taking the par splits, the par-5s put up a definite fight as they ranked 21st hardest on the PGA Tour in 2019. However both the par-3s (7th easiest for Birdie or Better) and the par-4s (12th easiest for Birdie or Better) were essentially there for the taking with lush, receptive greens accepting darts. Other than that Detroit GC proved pretty stock, with greens being the 10th easiest to hit on Tour 12 months ago. Scrambling here was also very easy in 2019, ranking the 11th easiest course on the PGA Tour. All-in-all the course was there for the taking.

Other points to note are usage of original Ross drainage swales, which cause penalty strokes for those who are flagrant off the tee. Indeed on the 18th, the swale runs down the entire left side of the fairway before crossing the fairway and routing to the right of the green complex. Holes 14-15-16 represent Area 313 on the golf course, with the ultimate aim of an eagle on the 14th, ace on the 15th and birdie on the 16th all adding up to the Detroit dialling code.

Winners: 2019: Nate Lashley (-25).

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Brandt Snedeker, Jason Day, Bubba Watson, Patrick Reed and Harris English.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Genesis Invitational, which includes PGA Tour and European Tour (where recorded) events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Josh Teater; 2) Kyle Stanley; 3) Chris Baker; 4) Arjun Atwal; 5) Tyler Duncan / David Hearn; 7) James Hahn / Brendon Todd; 9) Ryan Armour; 10) Kramer Hickok; 11) Wes Roach; 12) Kevin Na; 13) Jason Dufner; 14) Rafa Cabrera Bello / Brian Stuard; 16) Robert Streb; 17) Austin Cook; 18) Michael Thompson; 19) Steve Stricker; 20) Sungjae Im.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) James Hahn; 2) Tyrrell Hatton / Adam Hadwin; 4) Will Gordon; 5) Bryson DeChambeau; 6) Hideki Matsuyama / Chase Seiffert / Harold Varner III; 9) Lucas Glover / Brandon Hagy; 11) Doc Redman / Josh Teater; 13) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Jason Dufner; 15) Joseph Bramlett; 16) Tony Finau / Wes Roach; 18) Viktor Hovland; 19) Kyle Stanley / Aaron Wise.
• Scrambling: 1) Mark Anderson / Hudson Swafford; 3) Brendon Todd; 4) Tyrrell Hatton; 5) Kevin Kisner; 6) Richy Werenski; 7) Bryson DeChambeau / Chris Kirk;  9) Chris Baker; 10) Webb Simpson; 11) Harris English / Maverick McNealy; 13) Scottie Scheffler; 14) Luke List; 15) David Hearn / Danny Willett; 17) Jason Dufner; 18) Sungjae Im; 19) Michael Kim / Steve Stricker.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Tyrrell Hatton; 2) Scott Harrington; 3) Christiaan Bezuidenhout  / Harris English / Patrick Reed; 6) Peter Uihlein; 7) Zac Blair / Jamie Lovemark; 9) Brian Stuard / J.J. Spaun; 11) Viktor Hovland / Patrick Rodgers; 13) Bryson DeChambeau / Talor Gooch; 15) Doc Redman; 16) Will Gordon / Rory Sabbatini; 18) Brian Harman / Hideki Matsuyama / Alex Noren / Adam Schenk / Martin Trainer.

Recent Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 20 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Genesis Invitational, which includes both PGA and European Tour events where recorded. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 20 SG Off The Tee: 1) Bryson DeChambeau; 2) Hideki Matsuyama; 3) Bubba Watson; 4) Sam Burns / Austin Cook; 6) Scottie Scheffler; 7) Sungjae Im; 8) Viktor Hovland; 9) Tyrrell Hatton; 10) Josh Teater; 11) Kevin Kisner / Adam Schenk / Michael Thompson; 14) Joseph Bramlett / Maverick McNealy / Erik van Rooyen / Harold Varner III; 18) Cameron Davis / Lucas Glover; 20) Henrik Norlander / Brendon Todd.
• Top 20 SG Approach: 1) Wesley Bryan; 2) Bryson DeChambeau / Tyrrell Hatton; 4) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Hideki Matsuyama; 6) Lucas Glover; 7) Viktor Hovland; 8) Doc Redman; 9) Harold Varner III; 10) Adam Hadwin; 11) Webb Simpson; 12) James Hahn; 13) Jamie Lovemark / Grayson Murray; 15) Tom Lewis / Sebastian Munoz; 17) Pat Perez / Jimmy Walker; 19) Branden Grace / Scottie Scheffler.
• Top 20 SG Around The Green: 1) Luke Donald; 2) Rory Sabbatini; 3) Kevin Na; 4) Cameron Davis; 5) Sungjae Im; 6) Branden Grace / Brian Harman; 8) Si Woo Kim; 9) Steve Stricker; 10) Michael Kim / Brian Stuard; 12) Patrick Reed; 13) Tyrrell Hatton; 14) James Hahn / Cameron Percy; 16) Brandt Snedeker; 17) Lucas Bjerregaard / Tony Finau / Luke List / J.T. Poston / D.J. Trahan.
• Top 20 SG Tee to Green: 1) Bryson DeChambeau; 2) Tyrrell Hatton / Hideki Matsuyama; 4) Lucas Glover / James Hahn / Viktor Hovland; 7) Harold Varner III; 8) Wesley Bryan; 9) Scottie Scheffler / Webb Simpson; 11) Tony Finau / Tom Lewis; 13) Sungjae Im / Kevin Na; 15) Rory Sabbatini; 16) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Bubba Watson; 18) Patrick Reed; 19) Cameron Davis / Luke List.
• Top 20 SG Putting: 1) Tyrrell Hatton; 2) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 3) Jamie Lovemark; 4) Adam Hadwin; 5) Michael Thompson; 6) J.T. Poston; 7) Brian Stuard; 8) Bryson DeChambeau / Beau Hossler; 10) Patrick Rodgers; 11) Maverick McNealy / Troy Merritt / Rory Sabbatini; 14) Mark Hubbard / Webb Simpson / Brendon Todd / Richy Werenski; 18) Charl Schwartzel; 19) Patton Kizzire / Andrew Putnam.
• Top 20 SG Total: 1) Tyrrell Hatton; 2) Bryson DeChambeau; 3) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 4) Adam Hadwin; 5) Rory Sabbatini / Scottie Scheffler; 7) Viktor Hovland; 8) Sungjae Im / Hideki Matsuyama / Webb Simpson; 11) Patrick Reed / Michael Thompson; 13) Maverick McNealy; 14) Harold Varner III; 15) Patrick Rodgers; 16) Rafa Cabrera Bello / Brendon Todd; 18) Lucas Glover / Hudson Swafford; 20) Cameron Davis.

PGA Tour Resumption Player Strokes Gained Rankings These top 20 in the field rankings are based from the Charles Schwab Challenge onwards:

• Top 20 SG Off The Tee: 1) Joseph Bramlett / Bryson DeChambeau; 3) Bubba Watson; 4) Viktor Hovland; 5) Kyle Stanley; 6) Tony Finau; 7) Chesson Hadley / Robert Streb; 9) Sam Burns; 10) Brendon Todd; 11) Austin Cook; 12) Michael Gligic / J.T. Poston / Webb Simpson / Josh Teater; 16) Luke List; 17) Kevin Na; 18) Matt Wallace; 19) Si Woo Kim / Tom Lewis / Tim Wilkinson.
• Top 20 SG Approach: 1) Doc Redman; 2) Lucas Glover; 3) Viktor Hovland / Peter Uihlein; 5) Wesley Bryan; 6) Scott Stallings; 7) Tyler Duncan; 8) Chesson Hadley; 9) Tyrrell Hatton; 10) Harold Varner III; 11) Bryson DeChambeau / Will Gordon; 13) Cameron Percy; 14) Emiliano Grillo; 15) Tyler McCumber; 16) Kevin Na; 17) Henrik Norlander; 18) Hank Lebioda; 19) Tom Lewis; 20) C.T. Pan.
• Top 20 SG Around The Green: 1) Will Gordon; 2) Luke Donald; 3) Brian Harman; 4) Si Woo Kim; 5) Chris Kirk; 6) Sam Burns / J.T. Poston; 8) Tim Wilkinson; 9) Scott Stallings; 10) Vijay Singh; 11) Seung-yul Hoh; 12) Michael Gligic / Erik van Rooyen; 14) Cameron Percy; 15) Tony Finau / Kramer Hickok; 17) Rory Sabbatini; 18) Branden Grace; 19) Brandt Snedeker; 20) Chris Stroud / Aaron Wise.
• Top 20 SG Tee to Green: 1) Viktor Hovland; 2) Bryson DeChambeau; 3) Will Gordon; 4) Peter Uihlein; 5) Lucas Glover; 6) Tyler Duncan / Scott Stallings; 8) Doc Redman; 9) Joseph Bramlett; 10) Bubba Watson; 11) Kevin Na / Henrik Norlander; 13) Rory Sabbatini; 14) Brian Harman / Harold Varner III; 16) Kyle Stanley; 17) Tyrrell Hatton; 18) Webb Simpson; 19) Wesley Bryan / Tony Finau / Chesson Hadley.
• Top 20 SG Putting: 1) Tyrrell Hatton; 2) Seung-yul Noh; 3) Will Gordon; 4) Michael Thompson; 5) Rory Sabbatini; 6) J.T. Poston / John Senden; 8) Ryan Armour; 9) Maverick McNealy; 10) Peter Uihlein; 11) Greg Chalmers / Chris Stroud; 13) Adam Hadwin; 14) Mark Hubbard / Patton Kizzire / Andrew Putnam; 17) Bryson DeChambeau; 18) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 19) Matt Jones.; 20) Troy Merritt.
• Top 20 SG Total: 1) Tyrrell Hatton / Will Gordon; 3) Bryson DeChambeau; 4) Seung-yul Noh; 5) Peter Uihlein; 6) Viktor Hovland / Rory Sabbatini; 8) Lucas Glover; 9) Scott Stallings; 10) Michael Thompson; 11) Kevin Na; 12) Robert Streb; 13) Tyler Duncan; 14) J.T. Poston; 15) Tony Finau; 16) Mark Hubbard / Brian Stuard / Bubba Watson; 19) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Joseph Bramlett /  Hank Lebioda / Kyle Stanley.

Winners & Prices: 2019: Lashley 250/1; Overall Average: 250/1. For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.

Historical Weather:

• 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind S 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 90. Wind WNW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 86. Wind NW 7-14 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 85. Wind NNE 6-12 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Detroit, Michigan, is here. Hot and sweltering is the best summary for this tournament. 33 degrees Celsius throughout, with no tangible wind. I’m expecting an identical test to what we saw here 12 months ago. 69mm of rain across Friday and Saturday will have left the course nice and soft, but no rain across tournament week will see plenty of roll on the fairways. With watered and receptive greens, expect another birdie-fest this week.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Nate Lashley’s victory here 12 months ago gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this:

• 2019, Nate Lashley (-25). 300 yards (44th), 73.2% fairways (11th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 30’10” proximity to hole (19th), 84.6% scrambling (3rd), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2019, Nate Lashley (-25). SG Off the Tee: 29th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 2nd.

Let’s take a view from players as to how Detroit Golf Club sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Nate Lashley (2019): “ Yeah, like you said, there is a lot of undulation. I got it under the hole on most holes and had a lot of uphill putts with not a lot of break, so I was able to knock those in. Yeah, there’s some putts out there. I made a really nice putt on 4 from the fringe, too. A putt I was just trying to get close and it happened to fall in. So yeah, putted really well today. Game feels good and hopefully can continue this through the week.

I don’t know that there’s a whole lot of tricky holes out there or really overly difficult holes. If you hit the fairways here, you can really score. I think that’s, you know, the name of the game. If you hit it in the fairway, you’re going to have a lot of birdie putts. But the greens, the greens do have quite a bit of slope, some of them around the holes that have a lot of undulation. If you get it on the right spot, though, and get it in the right tier, you can make a lot of birdies

It’s nice when you have one of these weeks at a course you can score on, and if you play well, you get rewarded. Some of the weeks the courses are so tough, people don’t really realize it. You could hit good shots all day and shoot over par. A lot of the weeks the courses are really difficult, so it’s a nice change coming here. You hit good shots and you can shoot a good score.”

Brandt Snedeker (2019): ” I seem to like Donald Ross courses. That’s the whole reason why I showed this week. When I saw the golf course we were playing I knew I wanted to be up here. So I did a great job of putting the ball in the fairway off the tee, and from there I could be aggressive. Had a lot of wedges in my hand, hit some great short irons and then obviously played to my strength. I’m a good putter, I love poa annua greens. We had perfect greens this morning. Made a lot of putts, which you’ve got to do around here. So I’m excited about hoping to build on that for tomorrow and kind of making sure I have the same M.O. tomorrow.”

Patrick Reed (2019): ” I think the biggest thing is it’s a shot-making golf course. You have to work the ball both ways, you can flight it, take it up in the air. There’s a bunch of different shots, especially when the wind blows, that you have to play. It’s not just see a number, hit a number. You have to use the contours of the greens, use the wind in a bunch of different areas. I love being creative and having to work the ball around. A place like this kind of suits me and I feel real comfortable over the ball. The golf course is pure, it’s in great shape, and it’s a birdie fest. You’ve got to go out and shoot low, got to go out and make birdies, especially this time of year, you know, after a U.S. Open, which normally par is a good score. And then on top of it you’re leading into another major, The Open coming up. And so you’re sitting there and to have a week like this where you can go out and make a bunch of birdies, if you’re hitting fairways, hitting wedges in there close, make a bunch of putts, you know, make a lot of birdies gives you confidence moving forward. I think it’s a great.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the Rocket Mortgage winner:

• 2019 – Nate Lashley: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below highlights Nate Lashley last year and where he was positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

• 2019 – Nate Lashley: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 6 ahead.

Incoming form of winners:

• Nate Lashley: 28th US Open/MC Hamilton/69th Colonial/29th Trinity Forest.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2019 – Lashley – AM -9/63

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 6 – Bubba Watson.
• 4 – Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker.
• 3 – Jimmy Walker.
• 2 – Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed, Vijay Singh.
• 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Greg Chalmers, Jason Dufner, Emiliano Grillo, Bill Haas, James Hahn,  Russell Knox, Nate Lashley, Hideki Matsuyama, Ted Potter Jnr, Andrew Putnam, Scott Stallings, Steve Stricker, Chris Stroud, Kevin Tway, Bo Van Pelt.

Naturally we’ve only seen a single renewal of this tournament and 250/1 shot Nate Lashley pretty much lapped the field shooting an incredible -25/263. A second season player, Nate had only scored a single PGA Tour top-10 finish in Puerto Rico in the April prior to winning here. He was outside the top 125 in the FedEx Cup, but arrived in Detroit as an alternate, buoyed by 28th place at the Pebble Beach-hosted U.S. Open on his last outing. An opening 67 at Pebble had him in 6th place at the end of Thursday and he hung around admirably, ranking 6th for Greens in Regulation, 6th for Strokes Gained on Approach and 14th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green. Clearly on the crest of a wave confidence-wise, Lashley arrived in Detroit on Wednesday evening as a last place alternate replacement and recorded a huge win for the bookmakers. Since his win he’s gone on to finish 4th at Old White TPC and 3rd at TPC Scottsdale. His single win on the Korn Ferry Tour had been at -20/268 at the 2017 Corales Championship.

It’s hard to take correlating course information from last year’s winner Lashley plus runner-up Doc Redman, but the likes of Rory Sabbatini, Brandt Snedeker and Patrick Reed were all in the top 5 mix. Courses that work well across those 3 players include the birdie festivals at the Plantation Course at Kapalua, PGA West and Pebble Beach. All 3 have also performed well at Torrey Pines, Copperhead at Innisbrook, Augusta National, Colonial, TPC Southwind and TPC Boston. Donald Ross overtures are easy to see across all 3 as well. Both Patrick Reed (2013) and Brandt Snedeker (2018) have won the Wyndham Championship at Ross-designed Sedgefield Country Club, with Rory Sabbatini also finishing 4th (2017), 6th (2019) and 8th (2013) in Greensboro.

The only renewal here highlights that Strokes Gained Putting was the key to victory. Nate Lashley, with 2.06 Strokes Gained Tee to Green per round, outscored that with his putter gaining 2.33 Strokes Putting per round. A rarity that on the PGA Tour. Take the top 4 finishers here though and cumulatively 7.21 Strokes Gained Tee to Green per round vs 4.75 Strokes Gained Putting highlights what’s so critical at true birdie-fests: creating the opportunities is key – especially with SG Approach play.

Rocket Mortgage Classic tips. Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 17:15BST 29.6.20 but naturally subject to fluctuation.