Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's Rocket Mortgage Classic Tips 2024

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Congratulations if you were on-board Scottie Scheffler at Monday pre-McIlroy WD prices of up to 5/1 with Unibet. Annoyingly (for golf punters) Scheffler has won 5 of the last 6 Signature events as favourite at 13/2, 11/2, 9/2, 15/4 and 5/1. The other Signature event – the Wells Fargo Championship – was won by favourite Rory McIlroy at 17/2 in Scheffler’s absence. A 50/1 runner-up finish for Tom Kim was my 11th second place finish in 25 events. Wow!

This is the sixth Rocket Mortgage Classic with the 5 renewals so far won by Nate Lashley, Bryson DeChambeau, Cam Davis, Tony Finau and Rickie Fowler. Undoubtedly Quicken Loans were the driving force behind the PGA Tour arriving in “Motor City” and the Detroit Golf Club will host this tournament through till 2026 at the very least. Sponsorship comes in the form of Quicken’s online Rocket Mortgage brand. Players in this week’s field include Quicken-sponsored defending champion Rickie Fowler, Tom Kim, Cameron Young, Will Zalatoris, Akshay Bhatia, Min Woo Lee and Robert MacIntyre.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Rocket Mortgage Classic, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: Detroit Golf Club is 10 miles north-west of central Detroit. An historic club established in 1899, we are dealing with a hybrid of 2 courses this week, namely the North (17 holes) and South (3rd hole) course. Both are Donald Ross original courses which feature his classic architecture, with this week’s championship holes having seen phased modernisation and construction preparation since 2014. It’s a Par 72 test at 7,370 yards, which features the standard breakdown of 4 par-3s, 10-par-4s and 4 par-5s. An old-style, tree-lined track, the course has received positive reviews since it made its PGA Tour debut in 2019. As per Donald Ross design classics, Detroit features uneven fairway lies and plenty of front-to-back contoured and multi-layered undulations within green complexes. Scoring-wise, its lack of length and receptive greens leads to very low scoring.

Detroit Golf Club, Detroit, Michigan: Designer: Donald Ross 1916; Course Type: Classical, Resort, Medium Length; Par: 72; Length: 7,370 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 1; Number of Sand Bunkers: 87; Acres of Fairway: 30; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Bluegrass mix 4″; Greens: 5,150 sq.ft average featuring Poa Annua with Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft.

Course Scoring Average:

  • 2023: 69.92 (-2.08), Difficulty Rank 43 of 49 courses
  • 2022: 70.40 (-1.60), Difficulty Rank 38 of 50 courses
  • 2021: 70.55 (-1.45), Difficulty Rank 40 of 51 courses
  • 2020: 70.05 (-1.95), Difficulty Rank 38 of 41 courses
  • 2019: 70.11 (-1.89), Difficulty Rank 42 of 49 courses

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Detroit Golf Club and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

  • Detroit Golf Club: 250 yards from tee: 34 yards wide; 275:34; 300:35 325:34; 350:33.
  • TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
  • Pinehurst Number 2: Average 35-45 yards wide.
  • Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:28; 325:24; 350:27.
  • Hamilton G&CC: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:29; 325:27; 350:28.
  • Colonial: Average 25-30 yards wide.
  • Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:32; 300:31; 325:30; 350:29.
  • Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
  • Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
  • Memorial Park: 30–40 yards at 300 yards.
  • Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
  • TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
  • Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
  • PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
  • Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
  • TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
  • Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
  • Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
  • Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
  • Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
  • Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Donald Ross designs include:

  • Aronimink GC – 2010 & 2011 AT&T National + 2018 BMW Championship
  • East Course at Oak Hill – 2013 + 2023 PGA Championship
  • East Lake GC – Tour Championship
  • Pinehurst Number 2 – 2014 & 2024 U.S. Open
  • Plainfield – 2011 & 2015 Barclays
  • Sedgefield CC – Wyndham Championship

Course Overview: Detroit Golf Club is a Donald Ross 1916 original which has received some modernisation work of late. 5 new tees were built in 2018 to add length to the course, but even so a 7,370 yard Par 72 is not long from a PGA Tour perspective. This week we are dealing with a classical, tree-lined course, with water only featuring on the par-4 14th hole. Greens feature the Donald Ross trademark back-to-front pitch surrounded by tightly mown run-offs into collection areas. The green complexes are constantly watered to make the course player friendly, but player comments all note how contoured the green complexes are here. Downhill putts are difficult to attack so distance control to position approach shots below the pin proves to be critical here. There’s lots of movement and contours on green complexes, which feature 80% Poa Annua and 20% Bentgrass within them, so similar to TPC River Highlands where they play The Travelers.

The layout itself features par-5s which are 635 yards (4th), 552 yards (7th), 555 yards (14th) and 577 yards (17th), which means 3 are reachable to the majority of the field. Even better the longer drivers can attack with mid-irons. But it’s the par-4s which are even more vulnerable with 5 of them measuring in at sub-450 yards. Indeed the 1st (397 yards), 4th (393 yards), 8th (372 yards) and 13th (393 yards) are all sub-400 yards.

So with little wind for 54 holes (at least), warm temperatures, easy to hit fairways with little penalty for missing them and lush receptive greens which are super easy to hit, expect standard low scoring. To highlight the relative ease of approach play, 15 (2019), 16 (2020), 11 (2021), 13 (2022) and 20 (2023) players have hit 80% Greens in Regulation or more since we came to the Detroit Golf Club.

Other points to note are usage of original Ross drainage swales, which cause penalty strokes for those who are flagrant off the tee. Indeed on the 18th the swale runs down the entire left side of the fairway, before crossing the fairway and routing to the right of the green complex. Holes 14-15-16 represent Area 313 on the golf course, with the ultimate aim of an eagle on the 14th, ace on the 15th and birdie on the 16th all adding up to the Detroit dialling code.

rocket mortgage classic tips

Rocket Mortgage Classic Winners: 2023: Rickie Fowler (-24); 2022: Tony Finau (-26); 2021: Cam Davis (-18); 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-23); 2019: Nate Lashley (-25).

  • 2023: Rickie Fowler 67-65-64-68 -24/264 AM/PM Wave
  • 2022: Tony Finau 64-66-65-67 -26/262 AM/PM Wave
  • 2021: Cam Davis 68-68-67-67 -18/270 AM/PM Wave
  • 2020: Bryson DeChambeau 66-67-67-65 -23/265 PM/AM Wave
  • 2019: Nate Lashley 63-67-63-70 -25/263 AM/PM Wave

OWGR of Rocket Mortgage Classic Winners: 2023: Fowler 35; 2022: Finau 16; 2021: Davis 134; 2020: DeChambeau 10; 2019: Lashley 353.

Cut Line: 2023: -4; 2022: -3; 2021: -3; 2020: -5; 2019: -5.

Lead Score Progression:

  • 2023: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -20; Round 4 -24.
  • 2022: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -15; Round 3 -21; Round 4 -26.
  • 2021: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -18.
  • 2020: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -19; Round 4 -23.
  • 2019: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -23; Round 4 -25.

Path to Victory: Below are the round positions for the winners of the Rocket Mortgage Classic since 2019:

  • 2023 – Rickie Fowler: Round 1: 14th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2022 – Tony Finau: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2021 – Cam Davis: Round 1: 21st, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 3rd.
  • 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2019 – Nate Lashley: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the Rocket Mortgage Classic winners since 2019 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

  • 2023 – Rickie Fowler: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
  • 2022 – Tony Finau: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 back Round 3: level.
  • 2021 – Cam Davis: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 3 back.
  • 2019 – Nate Lashley: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 6 ahead.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Taylor Pendrith, Keith Mitchell, Maverick McNealy, Tom Kim, Erik van Rooyen, Akshay Bhatia, Stephan Jaeger, Cameron Young, Alex Noren and Min Woo Lee.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Winning Prices: 2023: Fowler 14/1; 2022: Finau 14/1; 2021: Davis 150/1; 2020: DeChambeau 7/1; 2019: Lashley 250/1. Average: 87/1.

Historical Weather:

  • 2023: Thursday: Partly cloudy and hazy with scattered showers. High of 84. Wind SSE 8-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Play was suspended due to inclement weather at 2:48 p.m. ET and resumed at 4:30 p.m. (delay of 1 hour, 42 minutes). Sunday: Cloudy with showers. High of 77. Wind ENE 4-8 mph.
  • 2022: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 83. Wind WSW 12-18 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 81. Wind W 10-15, with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind S 7-14 mph.
  • 2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy with showers. High of 80. Wind NNE 8-14 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended from 12:15 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. ET. Due to darkness, the first round was suspended at 9:02 p.m. with 27 players left on the golf course. Preferred lies were in effect during the first round. Friday: The first round resumed at 7:15 a.m. Friday and was completed at 8:15 a.m. The second round began as scheduled at 6:45 a.m. Partly cloudy. High of 76. Wind N 10-15, with gusts to 25 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 83. Wind SW 8-14, gusting to 18 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind NW 4-8 mph, switching to SE 5-10 mph in the afternoon.
  • 2020: Thursday: Sunny. High of 91. Wind N 4-8 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 90. Wind N 4-8 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 89. Wind ENE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 90. Wind SSE 5-10 mph.
  • 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind S 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 90. Wind WNW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 86. Wind NW 7-14 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 85. Wind NNE 6-12 mph.

Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Detroit, Michigan is here.

Cooler, pleasant temperatures will greet the players in Michigan this week. 23-26 degrees Celsius – 73-79 Fahrenheit, will be in situ across the week. A weather front will run through Detroit on Saturday morning with south-westerly winds reaching potentially 30 mph. Thunderstorms are part of that weather movement, so delays are possible – as could be a course soaking, which will only lower scoring further. With plenty of rain in the build-up I’m expecting soft, receptive greens.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the CJ Cup Byron Nelson / Volvo China Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Luke Clanton; 2) Rico Hoey / Neal Shipley / Jhonattan Vegas; 5) Cameron Champ / Patrick Fishburn; 7) Kevin Dougherty; 8) Keith Mitchell; 9) Min Woo Lee; 10) Davis Thompson; 11) Kevin Yu; 12) Cameron Young; 13) Erik van Rooyen; 14) Akshay Bhatia / Aaron Rai / Adam Svensson; 17) Alejandro Tosti; 18) Joe Highsmith / Taylor Moore; 20) Jackson Koivun / Andrew Novak / Alex Smalley; 23) Sam Stevens; 24) Stephan Jaeger / Carl Yuan.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Lee Hodges; 2) Chez Reavie; 3) Rafael Campos / Kelly Kraft; 5) Aaron Rai; 6) Francesco Molinari / Kevin Yu; 8) Bud Cauley; 9) Adam Svensson; 10) Greyson Sigg; 11) Doug Ghim; 12) Daniel Berger / Justin Lower / J.J. Spaun / Matt Wallace; 16) Luke Clanton / Brice Garnett; 18) Zach Johnson / Chan Kim / Michael Kim / Tom Kim / Chandler Phillips; 23) Lanto Griffin / Alex Noren; 25) David Skinns.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Michael Thorbjornsen; 2) Webb Simpson; 3) Roger Sloan; 4) Sam Stevens; 5) Jorge Campillo; 6) Stewart Cink / Matt Wallace; 8) Chris Gotterup / Ryan Moore / Kevin Tway; 11) Maverick McNealy / C.T. Pan / Patrick Rodgers; 14) Joseph Bramlett / Brendon Todd / Brandon Wu; 17) Neal Shipley; 18) Anders Albertson / Jacob Bridgeman; 20) Adam Svensson; 21) Beau Hossler / Jackson Koivun; 23) Taylor Montgomery / Aaron Rai.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Aaron Rai; 2) Davis Thompson; 3) Adam Svensson / Kevin Yu; 5) Keith Mitchell; 6) Maverick McNealy / Matt Wallace; 8) Bud Cauley / Lee Hodges / Tom Kim; 11) Neal Shipley; 12) Jorge Campillo; 13) Doug Ghim; 14) Joe Highsmith; 15) Chan Kim; 16) Taylor Pendrith; 17) Joseph Bramlett / Min Woo Lee; 19) Stephan Jaeger; 20) Daniel Berger / Patton Kizzire / Mac Meissner / Alex Noren; 24) Kevin Dougherty / Webb Simpson / Jhonattan Vegas.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Vincent Whaley; 2) Willie Mack III / Michael Thorbjornsen; 4) Matt Kuchar; 5) Ben Kohles; 6) Ryan McCormick; 7) Tyson Alexander / Taylor Pendrith; 9) Robert MacIntyre / Thorbjorn Olesen / Gary Woodland; 12) Lee Hodges; 13) Neal Shipley; 14) Beau Hossler / Davis Riley; 16) Min Woo Lee; 17) Ryan Fox / Zach Johnson; 19) Ben Griffin / Nate Lashley; 21) Peter Malnati; 22) Adrien Dumont de Chassart / Tyler Duncan; 24) Martin Laird / Ben Silverman.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Maverick McNealy / Aaron Rai / Matt Wallace; 4) Min Woo Lee; 5) Lee Hodges; 6) Neal Shipley; 7) Taylor Pendrith; 8) Tom Kim; 9) Robert MacIntyre / Keith Mitchell; 11) Troy Merritt / Alex Noren; 13) Thorbjorn Olesen; 14) Jacob Bridgeman / Ryo Hisatsune / Vincent Whaley; 17) Michael Thorbjornsen; 18) Tyler Duncan / Kevin Yu; 20) Luke Clanton / Andrew Novak; 22) Davis Thompson / Adam Svensson; 24) Jorge Campillo / Zach Johnson / Kelly Kraft.

For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Detroit Golf Club click here.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Rocket Mortgage Classic winners here at Detroit Golf Club gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this north-eastern parkland test:

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

  • 2023, Rickie Fowler (-24). SG Off the Tee: 30th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 14th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 12th.
  • 2022, Tony Finau (-26). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 15th.
  • 2021, Cam Davis (-18). SG Off the Tee: 34th, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 5th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 22nd.
  • 2020, Bryson DeChambeau (-23). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 51st, SG Around the Green: 26th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 1st.
  • 2019, Nate Lashley (-25). SG Off the Tee: 29th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 2nd.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

  • SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 15th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 10th.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners of the Rocket Mortgage Classic gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this parkland test:

  • 2023, Rickie Fowler (-24). 310 yards (24th), 62.5% fairways (62nd), 84.7% greens in regulation (4th), 31’5″ proximity to hole (19th), 54.5 % scrambling (71st), 1.61 putts per GIR (5th).
  • 2022, Tony Finau (-26). 309 yards (34th), 82.1% fairways (3rd), 91.7% greens in regulation (1st), 29’10” proximity to hole (5th), 100 % scrambling (1st), 1.73 putts per GIR (35th).
  • 2021, Cam Davis (-18). 299 yards (7th), 71.4% fairways (29th), 76.4% greens in regulation (24th), 34’9″ proximity to hole (68th), 76.5 % scrambling (16th), 1.69 putts per GIR (15th).
  • 2020, Bryson DeChambeau (-23). 351 yards (1st), 58.9% fairways (58th), 77.8% greens in regulation (13th), 37’6″ proximity to hole (69th), 68.8 % scrambling (29th), 1.63 putts per GIR (7th).
  • 2019, Nate Lashley (-25). 300 yards (44th), 73.2% fairways (11th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 30’10” proximity to hole (19th), 84.6% scrambling (3rd), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).

Tournament Skill Averages:

  • Driving Distance: 22nd, Driving Accuracy: 33rd, Greens in Regulation: 9th, Proximity to Hole: 36th, Scrambling: 24th, Putting Average 13th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how Detroit Golf Club sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Rickie Fowler (2023): “That’s just when you get soft poa, greens get bumpy and you get footprints and soft spikes kind of leave craters. Yeah, it’s tough. And there were some pins that were on quite a bit of slope so when the greens get a little bumpy and there’s that much movement, there’s not a whole lot you can do. You just sometimes hit and hope; hopefully it goes in, sometimes it doesn’t.

I think I hit a handful of shots to nearly gimme and that was definitely nice. With the softer conditions, starting to kind of dry out a little bit, but the greens get pretty beat up. Even yesterday morning they were already starting to get a little bouncy. Being in the afternoon, you know, guys dealt with it yesterday and we had it today. Not having to really think about anything outside of like three feet, even two feet starts to get a little dicey. Like I said, having a few tap-ins for birdie, that always makes things a little easier.

Yeah, it was a nice day. You know, even with the little delay in there, sometimes those can be a good thing, bad thing. Feel like we picked up right where we left off and kind of kept going out there. We really — 10 is the only hole I really got out of position, pulled one left and got a pretty big kick off a tree, but managed to make a good bogey and get out of there. Just continued to swing well, give myself looks. Definitely taking advantage of the par 5s that are on the back. Being able to two-putt for a birdie, those are always nice to have..”

Tony Finau (2022):  “I hate saying easy. Those are just words I don’t like using, but it was nice to have hit as many fairways as I did to kind of open up the green for me today. Yeah, it’s cool, I didn’t know that fact before today, that I haven’t hit all 18 greens, so to be able to do that here today is pretty cool.”

“Yeah, this course protects itself. It did rain last night, but if it didn’t rain, the course is pretty firm. Mid teens to high teens have won this tournament. If you finish in the high teens you’re in a pretty good spot for the week. If it stays soft, it may be lower than that for the week. I think it’s just a forgiveness thing. After playing the U.S. Open you kind of beat yourself up all week and then you kind of hit a bad shot on a day like today and your ball may stay on the green and not roll off into some ankle-high rough. I think mentally it’s a little bit more forgiving.”

“Yeah, I was in the fairway and I knew I needed to take advantage of this par 5 after letting a few putts slip by and not converting on 4, the other par 5 on the front nine. I hit a really nice 4-iron. I had to get all of it to get it to the hole and hit it right in the middle of the green and was able to two-putt that to kind of keep the momentum up on a solid round. Then it was nice to just get a bonus birdie on 8 after a poor wedge shot, but that’s why we call our putter the equalizer.”

“Well, I think bombers do well every course. I think if we look, it doesn’t matter what golf course we’re playing, if you hit it far, you have an advantage not only off the tee, but into the greens you’re hitting shorter shots. If you’re hitting it into the rough, you’re hitting more lofted clubs out of there, you’re able to create speed out of the rough. I always feel like guys that bomb it have the advantage and this golf course is no different.”

“Yeah, I think that’s a big reason I’ve been hitting so many greens. I’m just hitting a lot more fairways (3rd for Driving Accuracy) than I’m accustomed to or than I have in the past. This golf course really opens up to you if you hit it in the short grass and it definitely has for me these first three rounds.”

Cam Davis (2021): “I’m hitting my irons pretty solid. Everything’s just sort of in a good place and everything working together pretty well kind of leads to a little less stress on the golf course, leaving me in better positions. And it’s nice to make a couple of putts every now and then to keep the momentum going. I’ve missed the cut the last two times I played here, so I wouldn’t say necessarily it’s a place that fit my eye straightaway, but this year I’ve kind of figured out a slightly different way to play the golf course and that’s try and put the ball in the fairway.”

Bryson DeChambeau (2020): “Well, the conditions are really nice, they’re beautiful. Greens are beautiful, fairways are perfect. It’s a golf course that I enjoy. I do really well on country club-style golf courses, so I’m looking forward to another great week. The greens have a lot of the slopes are from back to front. Layout seems like it’s fairly tight, a lot of rough. I think there’s a lot of bunkers that are around like 290, so hopefully I’ll be able to clear those and take those out of play. So, sorry, Mr. Ross, but, you know, it is what it is. And I like the style of golf courses, it just seems to fit me. They’re like country club style. I grew up on Belmont Country Club, which is very similar to that style of course, so I’m comfortable with it. I really enjoy those types of courses and I feel like I thrive on them, so this course is none the different.”

“I’m again trying to be the casino and give myself the best opportunity to win. Having 9-iron into those par 5s, it’s definitely nice to be able to attack par-5 flags rather than kind of move away from them. There’s a couple holes where I can get it up close to the green and just chip it on there and make a putt. I’ve just got to keep hitting my driver good and getting more comfortable with the driver and if that happens, it’s going to be a fun week.”

Nate Lashley (2019): “Yeah, like you said, there is a lot of undulation. I got it under the hole on most holes and had a lot of uphill putts with not a lot of break, so I was able to knock those in. Yeah, there’s some putts out there. I made a really nice putt on 4 from the fringe, too. A putt I was just trying to get close and it happened to fall in. So yeah, putted really well today. Game feels good and hopefully can continue this through the week.”

“I don’t know that there’s a whole lot of tricky holes out there or really overly difficult holes. If you hit the fairways here, you can really score. I think that’s, you know, the name of the game. If you hit it in the fairway, you’re going to have a lot of birdie putts. But the greens, the greens do have quite a bit of slope, some of them around the holes that have a lot of undulation. If you get it on the right spot, though, and get it in the right tier, you can make a lot of birdies.”

“It’s nice when you have one of these weeks at a course you can score on, and if you play well, you get rewarded. Some of the weeks the courses are so tough, people don’t really realize it. You could hit good shots all day and shoot over par. A lot of the weeks the courses are really difficult, so it’s a nice change coming here. You hit good shots and you can shoot a good score.”

Brandt Snedeker (2019): ” I seem to like Donald Ross courses. That’s the whole reason why I showed this week. When I saw the golf course we were playing I knew I wanted to be up here. So I did a great job of putting the ball in the fairway off the tee, and from there I could be aggressive. Had a lot of wedges in my hand, hit some great short irons and then obviously played to my strength. I’m a good putter, I love poa annua greens. We had perfect greens this morning. Made a lot of putts, which you’ve got to do around here. So I’m excited about hoping to build on that for tomorrow and kind of making sure I have the same M.O. tomorrow.

Patrick Reed (2019): ” I think the biggest thing is it’s a shot-making golf course. You have to work the ball both ways, you can flight it, take it up in the air. There’s a bunch of different shots, especially when the wind blows, that you have to play. It’s not just see a number, hit a number. You have to use the contours of the greens, use the wind in a bunch of different areas. I love being creative and having to work the ball around. A place like this kind of suits me and I feel real comfortable over the ball. The golf course is pure, it’s in great shape, and it’s a birdie fest. You’ve got to go out and shoot low, got to go out and make birdies, especially this time of year, you know, after a U.S. Open, which normally par is a good score. And then on top of it you’re leading into another major, The Open coming up. And so you’re sitting there and to have a week like this where you can go out and make a bunch of birdies, if you’re hitting fairways, hitting wedges in there close, make a bunch of putts, you know, make a lot of birdies gives you confidence moving forward. I think it’s a great.

Incoming Form of Rocket Mortgage winners since 2019:

  • Rickie Fowler: 13th Travelers/5th US Open/9th Memorial/6th Colonial.
  • Tony Finau: 1st 3M Open/28th Open/13th River Highlands/MC US Open.
  • Cam Davis: MC Memorial/45th Colonial/59th PGA/26th Quail Hollow.
  • Bryson DeChambeau: 6th River Highlands/8th Harbour/3rd Colonial/4th Bay Hill.
  • Nate Lashley: 28th US Open/MC Hamilton/69th Colonial/29th Trinity Forest.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

  • 2023 – Kuest / T Moore – AM/PM -9/63 150/1, 66/1.
  • 2022 – Finau / Pendrith – Both AM -8/64 – 33/1, 70/1.
  • 2021 – Davis Thompson – AM -9/63 No Price
  • 2020 – Kisner/Redman/Stallings – 2AM/1PM – 7/65 – 80/1, 66/1, 80/1.
  • 2019 – Lashley – AM -9/63 No Price

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 4 – Brandt Snedeker
  • 2 – Chez Reavie, Jimmy Walker, Gary Woodland.
  • 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Daniel Berger, Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Champ, Cam Davis, Jason Dufner, Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Nate Lashley, Robert MacIntyre, Kevin Tway, Erik van Rooyen.

We have seen 5 renewals of this tournament with two defined game-shape camps of winners. 2019 saw 250/1 shot Nate Lashley pretty much lap the fieldm shooting an incredible -25/263. A second season player, Nate had only scored a single PGA Tour top 10 finish in Puerto Rico in the April, prior to winning here. He was outside the top 125 in the FedEx Cup, but arrived in Detroit as an alternate, buoyed by 28th place at the Pebble Beach-hosted U.S. Open on his last outing. An opening 67 at Pebble had him in 6th place at the end of Thursday and he hung around admirably, ranking 6th for Greens in Regulation, 6th for Strokes Gained on Approach and 14th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green. Clearly on the crest of a wave confidence-wise, Lashley arrived in Detroit on Wednesday evening as a last gasp alternate and recorded a huge win for the bookmakers. Since his win he’s gone onto finish 3rd at TPC Scottsdale, 3rd at Torrey Pines, 4th at Old White TPC, 5th at Pebble Beach, 7th at Waialae plus 3rd and 7th Grand Reserve CC (Puerto Rico). His single win on the Korn Ferry Tour had been at -20/268 at the 2017 Corales Championship.

2020 saw Bryson DeChambeau arrive off post Covid-19 resumption form of 6th at the Travelers Championship, 8th at the RBC Heritage and 3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He was the 7/1 favourite. Bryson had already won 5 PGA Tour titles and won by 3 shots from Matthew Wolff and by 5 from Kevin Kisner. 2021 saw another long driver in the form of Cam Davis win this, triumphing in a 3-man play-off over Joaquin Niemann and Troy Merritt. Cam came to Detroit off a missed cut at the Memorial Tournament with form prior to that reading 45-59-26. His previous top 10 finish had been in January at The American Express, finishing 3rd, and understandably he won the Rocket Mortgage at 150/1.

2022 saw Tony Finau go back-to-back, winning the 3M Open in Minnesota the week prior to taking the Rocket Mortgage out at 14/1 in Michigan. An opening -8/64 saw him lead after Thursday and from there he shot -26/262 to beat Patrick Cantlay and Cameron Young by 5 shots. Power off the tee clearly got the job done.

2023 saw an emotional – was it the most emotional win of the year? – victory for Rickie Fowler at 14/1. His win came off cracking form of 13/5/9/6/MC/14/15/10. Not known as a bomber, Rickie ranked 27th on the PGA Tour for Driving Distance arriving in Detroit and he defeated shorter sorts in Collin Morikawa and Adam Hadwin in a 3-man play-off.

So we’ve seen 4 long drivers win in Detroit as well as a shorter sort, whose strengths are approach and putting. At just south of 7,400 yards, I categorise this as a medium length golf course, which is classical in nature and tree-lined. It’s meant to be a throwback test with a runaway victory for Nate Lashley in 2019, plus places for the likes of Kisner, Merritt and Snedeker, showing that shorter, steady players can compete around here. However the course is also powerless if a world-class driver plays at their best here.

My Final Rocket Mortgage Classic Tips Are As Follows

Taylor Pendrith 2pts EW 30/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Taylor Pendrith continues to play well and needs to play well if he wants to hit his ultimate 2024 goal, which you would presume is representing the International Team in the Presidents Cup which he did in 2022. A look back to a couple of years ago shows Taylor stringing together 13th at the Players, 13th at the Barbasol, 11th at the Barracuda, 2nd here at the Rocket Mortgage, 13th at the Wyndham Championship and 8th at the FedEx Cup Playoff status BMW Championship to get a Captain’s Pick from Trevor Immelman. Fast forward to now and Pendrith has just overtaken Emiliano Grillo to break into the top 12 in the standings – but with only 6 automatic selections and Adam Scott a very likely pick, Taylor needs to keep getting results. Having just missed out on Olympic selection behind Nick Taylor and Corey Conners, I think the World Number 52 will be determined not to miss out on Royal Montreal Golf Club in September.

So arriving at Detroit Golf Club after finishing 16th at the U.S. Open – his best Major Championship finish to date – and 23rd last week at the Signature-level Travelers Championship has to be a great thing for the 33 year-old. 2nd here behind Tony Finau in 2022, Taylor was also 14th here last year, where he had the 36-hole lead and went out in the final Sunday group with Rickie Fowler and Adam Hadwin.

Ranking in this field 3rd for Strokes Gained Approach, 3rd for Tee to Green, 1st for Strokes Gained Ball Striking and 3rd for Strokes Gained Total across our Rocket Mortgage Classic Strokes Gained Analysis, Pendrith is pretty ideal for the test this week – a bomber off the tee who ranks 7th in this field across my 8-week Strokes Gained Putting tracker. RESULT: T72

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Davis Thompson 2pts EW 33/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

If we work off the narrative of a first time winner taking advantage of a weak field, I can see Maverick McNealy and Davis Thompson being very popular this week. I’ve gone for the latter, mainly on the basis McNealy doesn’t tend to string top 10 finishes together, hasn’t played since the Canadian Open, and at just under 7,400 yards I think Detroit Golf Club maybe a little too long for him to ultimately win.

Thompson arrives off real momentum and must be on the crest of a wave confidence-wise. 2nd at the opposite event at the Myrtle Beach Classic saw Davis in the heat of battle throughout, so that was undoubtedly progress. Since then 17th at Colonial, 27th at the Signature-event level Memorial Tournament and 9th at the U.S. Open must see the 25 year-old University of Georgia graduate arrive with real pep in his stride. Naturally that 9th was his first Major Championship top 10 finish, where he ranked 12th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green – impressive stuff. Fascinatingly he also sits 17th for Tee to Green across the whole of the 2024 PGA Tour year, and with plenty of wedges in hand, this golf course should suit him down to the ground when stood in the fairway.

9th on the Bentgrass Poa Annua mix greens of Silverado in his first rookie appearance in 2022, I’m also drawn to 2nd at the 2023 The American Express, where he shot -26/262 to end up a shot shy of Jon Rahm. Detroit Golf Club winners Nate Lashley, Cam Davis, Tony Finau and Rickie Fowler have all had success at PGA West.

6th after 36 holes here on debut in 2022 – he eventually finished 58th – Thompson returned here 12 months ago finishing 24th, ranking T11 for Saturday/Sunday scoring combined. His play right now is so much better though, ranking 2nd in this field for Tee to Green across the past 8 weeks across my Strokes Gained tracker. RESULT: T2

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Ryan Fox 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

Ryan Fox grabs me as a longer driver of the golf ball who is putting very nicely at the moment and making birdies in batches. In terms of DP World Tour graduates in 2024 he’s behind both Matthieu Pavon and Robert MacIntyre when it comes to feeling at home on the PGA Tour, but there have been good signs recently that the New Zealander in weaker fields is coming to terms with his United States odyssey. Where both the Frenchman and Scot have already won on the PGA Tour, I’m sure that Fox is taking strength from their winning performances.

4th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans when partnering Garrick Higgo, 4th at the opposite Myrtle Beach Classic, 32nd at the Charles Schwab Challenge (7th heading into the weekend) and 7th at the RBC Canadian Open when he was the 36-hole leader – the World Number 62 is playing some decent golf. He made the cut at the U.S. Open a fortnight ago, but this birdie fest on an old style, tree-lined course should be far more up his street.

At both Myrtle Beach and the RBC Canadian Open Ryan ranked T4 and T2 for Birdie or Better Conversion. I like the sound of that. His 4 wins on the DP World Tour have all come on Par 72 formats measuring between 7,100 and 7,300 yards. Plus 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and 2023 BMW PGA Championship titles are some of the biggest on the DP World Tour.

17th on Tour for Driving Distance and 17th across my 8-week Strokes Gained tracker for Putting, I think that Foxy may well enjoy his first visit to Detroit Golf Club. RESULT: T67

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Matt Wallace 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

Matt Wallace is playing some superb golf of late and a course where penalty off the tee is negated seems to be the perfect recipe for the Englishman. The favourite last week at the DP World Tour’s KLM Open, Matt played well enough finishing 15th after heading into Sunday at T5. But I think the lower scoring aspects of the Detroit Golf Club will suit Wallace – that much is clear at an event where he has already finished 12th (2020), 10th (2022) and 78th (2023) on his 3 appearances.

Form of 4-20-43-27-15 combining both Tours tells you exactly where Wallace is at right now and across my 8-week Strokes Gained Rankings in this field he ranks in the top 12 for Approach, Around the Green and Tee to Green. He’s also T1 for Strokes Gained Current Form.

With such strong metrics from Tee to Green it’s then fascinating to look at the fact that winners here over the past 3 years all gained around or over a stroke per round with the putter. Ice cold flat sticks don’t tend to get you to below 20-under scoring totals after all. Matt over his 12 rounds here at Detroit Golf Club in this field ranks 13th for Strokes Gained Putting or 8th for those who have completed 8 or more rounds here across our Rocket Mortgage Classic Strokes Gained Analysis. RESULT: MC

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Lee Hodges 1pt EW 70/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

A closing 65 at the Travelers Championship must boost the confidence of Lee Hodges who is playing some great stuff a little under the radar right now. 24th at the Wells Fargo Championship, 12th at the PGA Championship, 12th at the Charles Schwab Challenge and 31st at the Travelers last week, Lee has been playing and competing in the very best fields in 2024. This will be a distinct drop in class and across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers Hodges ranks in the top 12 for Putting, top 10 for Tee to Green, top 5 for Current Form and 1st for Approach in this field.

He also has the knack of shooting low rounds on tracks that allow it. In his rookie season, rounds of 62 (Thursday) and 64 (Saturday) propelled him into the lead at the 2022 The American Express where he eventually finished 3rd. That season also saw him shoot 66-66 here at the Rocket Mortgage Classic which elevated him into 3rd place and the second-last Saturday group with Cameron Young. That experience went badly as he shot 77, but our card had been marked that Lee gets on well on this course and in these geographic climes.

Cue the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities last year where he shot 63-64-66-67 to win the title at -24/260, 7 shots clear of the opposition. That win came in Minnesota, which along with the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the RBC Canadian Open are the northernmost stop-offs on the PGA Tour, and it’s worth noting that Detroit Golf Club winners DeChambeau, Davis and Finau have decent records at TPC Twin Cities. RESULT: MC

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 13:45BST 24.6.24 but are naturally subject to fluctation.