After 45 events, we finally reach the last PGA Tour tournament of 2023. This will be my last preview of the year so thanks to all you readers, listeners of the Golf Betting System Podcast, and watchers of our YouTube content across 2023 – it’s been great to have had you on board and we will be back for The Sentry in the New Year.
We move to the Atlantic coast in Georgia for the RSM Classic. Formerly The McGladrey Classic, the RSM within player circles is known as the Island Swing Major and is popular with lots of the golfing community who reside (or have a practice base) here on Sea Island or on the adjoining St Simon’s Island – after all, it’s always handy to have a full PGA Tour tournament worth an increased $8,400,000 on your doorstep. So names like Jonathan Byrd, Harris English, Will Gordon, Ben Griffin, Brian Harman, Zach Johnson, Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, Andrew Novak, J.T. Poston, Greyson Sigg and Davis Thompson, plus tournament host Davis Love III, will be spending a well-deserved tournament week in their own beds.
It’s worth noting, however, that the local knowledge doesn’t stop there as Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner and Nick Watney all regularly use the Sea Island Golf Performance Center. Knowledge of Sea Island resort also stretches to a large number of players who studied and played college golf in Southeastern Conference (SEC) universities. 2023 also sees the field benefit hugely from the likes of Ludvig Aberg, Eric Cole, Corey Conners, Billy Horschel, Si Woo Kim, Denny McCarthy and Cameron Young.
With only the RSM Classic in terms of 2023 PGA Tour events left to play, there are plenty of motivating factors this week such as:
Official World Golf Ranking top 50 spot (invite for the 2024 Masters arriving pre-Christmas for those not already exempt).
“Next 10” FedExCup Fall Series spot (entry into the big money AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am & Genesis Invitational tournaments early in 2024.)
FedExCup Fall Series top 125 (full playing privileges for 2024 for those not already exempt)
Before we go into the detail surrounding the RSM Classic, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,300 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Guide: 2015 saw the RSM Classic extend to a 156 player field and a 2 course format. The Plantation Course sits next door to host venue the Seaside Course on St Simon’s Island. 18 holes of action across Thursday and Friday are split across the 2 courses, with the Seaside Course hosting the final 36. The Seaside Course is, as you would expect, a links-type test. Seaside is an original Harry Colt design which in 1998 had a Tom Fazio re-design where the original ‘Marshside’ and ‘Seaside’ sets of 9 later were merged. It’s a true rarity – an American links-style course with man-made sand dunes, ridges and elevation fluctuations. The course is a short, 7,005 yard, Par 70 featuring Bermudagrass fairways and rough (average 2″) as well as pretty grainy TifEagle Bermudagrass greens that will run at close to 12.5 on the Stimpmeter.
Sea Island Resort, Seaside Course, St Simon’s Island, Georgia: Designer: Colt & Allison, 1928, Fazio re-design, 1998; Course Type: Coastal, Mid-Score, Short; Par: 70; Length: 7,005 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 13; Acres of Fairway: 25; Fairways Perennial Ryegrass Overseed; Rough: Perennial Ryegrass Overseed, 2″; Greens: 7,200 sq.ft TifEagle Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 12.5ft.
Course Scoring Average: 2012: 69.28 (-0.72), Difficulty Rank 36 of 49 courses. 2013: 70.26 (+0.26), Difficulty Rank 21 of 43 courses. 2014: 69.42 (-0.58), Difficulty Rank 28 of 52. 2015: 69.31 (-0.69), Difficulty Rank 29 of 50. 2016: 68.89 (-1.11), Difficulty Rank 35 of 50. 2017: 69.24 (-0.76), Difficulty Rank of 35 of 51. 2018: 68.84 (-1.16), Difficulty Rank 33 of 49 courses. 2019: 68.90 (-1.10), Difficulty Rank of 25 of 41. 2020: 68.69 (-1.31), Difficulty Rank 40 of 51 courses. 2021: 68.97 (-1.03), Difficulty Rank 33 of 50. 2022: 68.99 (-1.01), Difficulty Rank 33 of 50 courses.
Sea Island Resort, Plantation Course, St Simon’s Island, Georgia: Designer: Walter Travis, 1926, Rees Jones renovation, 1998, Davis Love III renovation 2019; Course Type: Coastal, Tree-lined, Short, Resort; Par: 72; Length; 7,060 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 10; Acres of Fairway: 32; Fairways: Perennial Ryegrass Overseed; Rough: TifTuf Bermudagrass, 1.5″; Greens: 6,100 sq.ft TifEagle Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 11ft – 11.5ft.
Course Scoring Average: 2015: 70.81 (-1.19), Difficulty Rank 42 of 50 courses. 2016: 69.76 (-2.34), Difficulty Rank of 48 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.54 (-1.46), Difficulty Rank 43 of 51 courses. 2018: 70.45 (-1.55), Difficulty Rank 37 of 49 courses. 2019: 70.44 (-1.56), Difficulty Rank of 34 of 41. 2020: 71.34 (-0.66), Difficulty Rank 25 of 51 courses. 2021: 70.69 (-1.31), Difficulty Rank 36 of 50. 2022: 69.76 (-2.24), Difficulty Rank 45 of 50 courses.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Harry Colt designs include:
Hamilton G&CC – 2012 + 2018 – RBC Canadian Open
Royal Lytham, Muirfield and Hoylake – 2012-14 Open Championship
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Tom Fazio designs include:
Atunyote GC – Turning Stone Championship 2007-10.
Caves Valley GC – BMW Championship 2021.
Congaree GC – Palmetto Championship 2021 + CJ Cup 2022.
Conway Farms GC – BMW Championship 2013, 2015, 2017.
Corales GC – Corales Championship.
Eagle Point – Wells Fargo Championship 2017.
Raptor Course Greyhawk GC – Fry’s.com Open 2008/09.
TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
Course Overview: The host Seaside Course is a links-style test, but don’t be fooled – you’d expect a technical challenge, but effectively the main defence of the course, which is barely 7,000 yards in length, is the weather from the Atlantic. Wide fairways and green complexes that average 7200 sq.ft. make the Seaside Course extremely susceptible to birdie-making for those that can putt well on TifEagle Bermudagrass putting surfaces. The greens themselves are quite a challenge as any putt within 10 feet is testing and difficult to read – especially for those that don’t get on with grainy Bermuda carpet.
The players also get 18 holes on the Plantation Course. Freshly renovated by tournament host Davis Love III, this is more of a parkland course by the sea. Fairways are tree-lined and the course certainly has a classical Carolina feel to it, with players mentioning links to Harbour Town Golf Links. However tidal creeks and lakes are in play across the majority of holes so mistakes prove costly. Plantation boasts expansive fairways and, at 7,060 yards, this Par 72 – which features three reachable par-5s – can (wind allowing) undoubtedly offer up more birdies than Seaside, despite players mentioning that the new Love III inspired green complexes are more difficult, with distinct quadrants and multi-tier layers. 2019 saw it rank the 7th and 15th easiest courses on Tour across 2019 and 2021 respectively, that jumped significantly in 2020 with tougher winds on Thursday/Friday.
The key to the RSM is pounding greens in regulation and strong Bermudagrass putting. The TifEagle Bermudagrass greens are not to every player’s liking and conversion of putts from anything outside of 10 feet is tough. That level of difficulty, when the wind allows, is not shared with Plantation, so low scoring is a must there to contend, especially as it is an incredibly short Par 72 by modern day standards.
RSM Classic Winners: 2022: Adam Svensson (-19); 2021: Talor Gooch (-22); 2020: Robert Streb (-19), 2019: Tyler Duncan (-19); 2018: Charles Howell III (-19); 2017: Austin Cook (-21); 2016: Mackenzie Hughes (-17); 2015: Kevin Kisner (-22); 2014: Robert Streb (-14); 2013: Chris Kirk (-14); 2012: Tommy Gainey (-16); 2011: Ben Crane (-16); 2010: Heath Slocum (-14).
2022: Adam Svensson 73-64-62-64 -19/263 Plantation/Seaside
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Alex Noren, Matt Kuchar, Luke List, Webb Simpson, Camilo Villegas, Brendon Todd, Brian Harman, Russell Henley, Brian Gay and Denny McCarthy.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
2022: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 55. Wind NW 8-14 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 57. Wind NNE 6-12 mph, with gusts to 15 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 61. Wind NNE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Cloudy. High of 58. Wind NNE 8-14 mph, with gusts to 18 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 75. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 67. Wind NE 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 67. Wind NE 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 69. Wind NE 7-14 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 69. Wind N 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind SSW 6-12 mph.
2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 68. Wind NE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 73. Wind NE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 74. Wind NE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 73. Wind NE 10-15 mph.
2019: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 67. Wind ENE 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 73. Wind SSE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 74. Wind S 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 62. Wind W 10-15 mph.
2018: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 58. Wind WNW 10 mph. Friday: Sunny, breezy and cool. High of 59. Wind NW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 67. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 71. Wind ENE 5-10 mph.
2017: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 68. Wind NNE 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny and breezy with a high of 68. Wind ENE 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 72. Wind S 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny, breezy and cooler. High of 68. Wind NW 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph.
2016: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 74. Light, variable wind 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 74. Wind ESE 4-8 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 77. Wind WSW 10-20 mph. Sunday: Sunny and cold, with a high of 62. Wind WNW 7-14 mph. Monday: Sunny and cold, with morning temperatures in the lower 40s. Wind WSW 5-7 mph.
2015: Thursday: Cloudy, with bands of rain throughout the day. High of 85 degrees. Wind E 10-20 mph. Friday: Sunny and cool. High of 68 degrees. Wind NE 12-18 mph, gusting to 28 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 71 degrees. Wind ENE 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with light showers in the morning and a high of 60 degrees. Wind NNW 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Sea Island, Georgia is here. It should be an interesting week at the RSM Classic. Temperatures look warmer than 12 months ago with 20-23 degrees Celsius – 68-73 Fahrenheit on tap this week. Thursday looks to be the toughest day for scoring with easterly gusts up to 25 mph throughout with rain at +50% throughout the day. From there we get 3 calm days across Friday, Saturday and Sunday which will be the green light for scoring.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Fortinet Championship / BMW PGA Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Total: 1) J.T. Poston; 2) Ludvig Aberg / Matt Kuchar; 4) Eric Cole; 5) Brendon Todd; 6) Billy Horschel; 7) Camilo Villegas; 8) Luke List; 9) Davis Thompson; 10) Vincent Whaley; 11) Justin Suh; 12) Taylor Pendrith / Adam Svensson; 14) Chesson Hadley / Akshay Bhatia; 16) Ryan Moore; 17) Mark Hubbard; 18) Sam Ryder; 19) J.J. Spaun; 20) Nicholas Lindheim; 21) Aaron Rai; 22) Stephan Jaeger; 23) Lanto Griffin / Callum Tarren; 25) Kramer Hickok / Kelly Kraft / Matti Schmid.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the RSM Classic winners here at the Seaside Course since 2015 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this desert Par 71:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2022, Adam Svensson (-19). SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 15th, SG Around the Green: 23rd, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 1st.
2021, Talor Gooch (-22). SG Off the Tee: 49th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 6th.
2020, Robert Streb (-19). SG Off the Tee: 31st, SG Approach: 36th, SG Around the Green: 27th, SG Tee to Green: 35th, SG Putting: 9th.
2019, Tyler Duncan (-19). SG Off the Tee: 21st, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 38th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 14th.
2018, Charles Howell III (-19). SG Off the Tee: 38th, SG Approach: 17th, SG Around the Green: 40th, SG Tee to Green: 19th, SG Putting: 24th.
2017, Austin Cook (-21). SG Off the Tee: 12th, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 13th.
2016, Mackenzie Hughes (-17). SG Off the Tee: 38th, SG Approach: 61st, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 25th, SG Putting: 3rd.
2015, Kevin Kisner (-22). SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 44th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 4th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 27th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 23rd, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 9th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2015 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2022, Adam Svensson (-19). 277 yards (52nd), 81.1% fairways (5th), 84.7% greens in regulation (4th), 31’0″ proximity to hole (8th), 72.7% scrambling (19th), 1.69 putts per GIR (12th).
2021, Talor Gooch (-22). 298 yards (22nd), 66.1% fairways (52nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 38’5″ proximity to hole (51st), 83.3 % scrambling (4th), 1.68 putts per GIR (9th).
2020, Robert Streb (-19). 282 yards (51st), 71.4% fairways (36th), 83.3% greens in regulation (7th), 37″10″ proximity to hole (53rd), 83.3 % scrambling (5th), 1.68 putts per GIR (11th).
2019, Tyler Duncan (-19). 280 yards (47th), 89.3% fairways (6th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 24″9″ proximity to hole (1st), 91.7% scrambling (1st), 1.70 putts per GIR (13th).
2018, Charles Howell III (-19). 297 yards (8th), 83.9% fairways (12th), 88.9% greens in regulation (1st), 29″11″ proximity to hole (14th), 50.0% scrambling (70th), 1.69 putts per GIR (19th).
2017, Austin Cook (-21). 288 yards (38th), 85.7% fairways (4th), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 31″10″ proximity to hole (16th), 91.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (11th).
2016, Mackenzie Hughes (-17). 280 yards (57th), 78.6% fairways (11th), 72.2% greens in regulation (50th), 31’1″ proximity to hole (16th), 85.0% scrambling (2nd), 1.62 putts per GIR (1st).
2015, Kevin Kisner (-22). 275 yards (54th), 78.6% fairways (17th), 81.9% greens in regulation (9th), 25’3″ proximity to hole (2nd), 84.6% scrambling (3rd), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 41st, Driving Accuracy: 18th, Greens in Regulation: 10th, Proximity to Hole: 20th, Scrambling: 13th, Putting Average 10th.
So let’s take a view from players as to how both Seaside and Plantation courses set up and what skills the course favours:
Adam Svensson (2022): “This golf course, you know, Seaside, it’s tough, the greens are fast. This course is all about ball-striking consistency, hitting fairways, hitting greens, giving yourself opportunities, not short siding yourself. I’m definitely getting better at playing away from flags now. Before, I was firing at all the flags. When the putter’s hot, you can shoot low numbers doing that.”
Talor Gooch (2021): “It was what you expect out here. It was comfortable, it was a grind. You know there’s going to be some tough stuff, there’s going to be a lot of uncomfortable shots. Like I said, being here a few times when it’s been like this, you know what to expect. And like you said, growing up in Oklahoma, you just, you feel like you have a little bit of advantage when it comes to the windy conditions.
For me, my creativity is just hitting it this high and hitting it low, not let the wind get it. Honestly, the tee shot on the last, I don’t think people realize not a lot of people have that shot. In fact, who’s caddie, either Sebastian’s or John’s caddie was like, Where’d you grow up, dude? I was like, Oklahoma, we’ve got to learn how to hit that one like that. So a couple like tee shots that were just tricky that I kind of fall back on my upbringing to hit some of those. Not super creative, not like moving a bunch, but that’s kind of the point, not to move a bunch.”
Tom Hoge (2021): “Yesterday you knew you had to make birdies. We were on our third or fourth hole and 7 under was the lead out there yesterday and you look up today and nobody’s really going anywhere, so you knew pars were going to go a long ways. I think just the biggest difference is putting. Out there on the Seaside, very exposed so you have a lot of putts- if you had a left-to-right breaker with the wind going in the opposite direction was very hard to figure out what the putt was going to do exactly because the wind can grab it pretty good with some of those gusts out there.”
Robert Streb (2020): “The key to this victory, it was just the putter. I had some pretty good spats of ball-striking in the middle, but I made some putts early and some good par putts the first round, then made a good chunk of them coming down the stretch that got me to 5 under on a pretty windy day the first round. Made a bunch of putts second and third round. I missed a few today, but overall I would say it’s the best I putted in a long time.”
Webb Simpson – DLIII Renovated Plantation Course: “Yeah, I mean, it’s usually windy here like Hilton Head so you’ve got to keep your ball on the ground. You have plenty of holes that are crosswinds, so that can be challenging. There’s water everywhere, so there are some similarities. But I love the redesign, Davis did a great job. There’s a lot of slope in the greens now, so you can really use those slopes to help you and get the ball in the hole.”
Scott Brown – DLIII Renovated Plantation Course: “Plantation‘s much tougher now with the new greens, I think, than it was before. You just had to get it in the right quadrant. You could get some good looks if you got it in those quadrants with the greens the way they’re tiered, but also, you know, on the other hand, if you’ve got them on the wrong side of them, you’ve got a tough two-putt. So I think it’s a great golf course and they’ve made it a lot tougher.”
Charles Howell III: “Yeah, Seaside, honestly if you shoot under par, you’ve played a good day. If I can shoot anything under par tomorrow, I’ll be happy with it and then you keep moving on from there. Anybody that shot 2, 3, 4 under today at Seaside, I mean, my goodness, what a round of golf it is in this wind, holy cow. Anything under par tomorrow would be great with me. Probably 14 just because, yeah, it was blowing pretty hard there on that hole and that’s a hole where you’re on that tee box, you’ll take a 4 and run, and made a 3 there. It was in off the left and just uncomfortable. But yeah, that hole there, because if you make three 4s there throughout the week, you’re happy. So to make a 3 there, it’s a drive and a 9-iron. The tee was up today because of the wind. But yeah, that one.”
Austin Cook: “I was here all four years at the SEC Championship, so I think it’s three rounds, and then – or the old format, three rounds and a practice round, so 16. Just being able to see the golf course and play it multiple times. I think it really does help the more rounds you get on a track, the more confident you are and comfortable you are on the golf course. It’s playing a little different this week than it does in May or whenever SECs are. It’s a little cooler but the grass isn’t quite the same. We’ve got some overseed this week, but I just think that being able to play it as many times as I have just really helped me out.”
Kevin Kisner: “I’m interested to see what the scores will be tomorrow if the wind blows like they’re forecasting. You know, north wind, neither course is really made to play a north wind. I think that’s probably the hardest wind to play Seaside in. So I’m hoping they move the tees up on that course like they did over here, or maybe it just doesn’t blow at all and we can make a bunch of birdies.”
Kevin Chappell: “Yeah, you know, Plantation course is in great shape, but the backside was tough there early. There were some pucker holes, 10 through 13. And then you can kind of get it. Obviously got me early. I played really well there the last 12 holes, last 13 holes. As we made the turn it got swirling pretty good. I drove it well today. I was in position and was able to take advantage of the soft golf course. Having two courses here brings back the feel of Disney again. It was real lax, but there was a tournament going on.”
Zach Johnson: “What they’ve done is added a lot of sand to the fairways over the last year and it helps with the drainage, helps with the run out and that sort of thing. I played here about a week ago, and we had an inch and a half of rain. That’s a lot of rain. I was getting some plugged lies. I played two days after that and I played nine holes, and it was starting to roll out already. They’ve done some nice things with the fairways. The greens have always been perfect. They’re difficult because they’re undulated and they’re kind of table topped somewhat, but they still hold, so it’s going to be a great test. The rough is brutal.”
Brian Harman: “I struck it nice, got some putts to go in. I think statistically which is one of the hardest plays to putt on Tour. The grain is very difficult to read here. I was pleased to make some 10 to 15 footers, some nice mid range putts and when you feel like you’re rolling it well you don’t have to be quite as aggressive coming into the green, so I was playing a lot of shots to the fat side of the green and just gave myself good looks and was fortunate enough to make a few of them.”
Russell Henley: “The other morning in the pro-am, I was hitting it at least a club shorter, and you know, into the wind, into the cold wind, it was playing almost two, and if you hit a normal shot, it’ll spin back into you, so you gotta hit some half shots, so it’s kind of a weird you almost gotta take two more clubs and hit it three quarter shots just to keep it under the wind, so I’d say I was pulling on average two more clubs in the morning. I don’t know. I just confused myself on that one, too.”
Chris Kirk: “Most important factor here? I’d say driving, generally this is a course I would say it’s not an overly long course, so it tends to favour the shorter, straighter hitter. I’m not a bomber by any means, but a little bit longer than average, I guess, on Tour and have yet to finish inside the Top 100 in driving accuracy in my first three years on Tour.
I definitely rely on hitting some good iron shots from the fairway and not always from the fairway and good scrambling and putting. But this is a golf course that you really need to play from the fairway and thankfully I drove the ball well this week and the rest of my game was really good.”
Incoming form of RSM winners since 2013:
Adam Svensson: 39th Houston/MC Mayakoba/59th ZOZO/69th Shriners.
Talor Gooch: 60th Houston/11th Mayakoba/5th CJ Cup/11th Shriners.
Robert Streb: 55th Bermuda/MC Sanderson/21st Corales/ MC Safeway.
Mackenzie Hughes: MC OHL/68th Shriners/26th Sanderson/13th Safeway.
Kevin Kisner: 2nd HSBC/37th CIMB/25th Shriners/28th Tour Championship.
Robert Streb: 10th Shriners/31st Fry’s/9th Deutsche/MC Barclays.
Chris Kirk: 25th CIMB/36th Shriners/24th BMW/16th Deutsche.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Brian Gay, Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson, Si Woo Kim, Camilo Villegas.
3 – Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Palmer.
2 – Jason Dufner, Harris English, Fabian Gomez, Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, Davis Love III, Scott Piercy, Webb Simpson, Robert Streb, Jimmy Walker.
1 – Ryan Armour, Aaron Baddeley, Jonas Blixt, Wesley Bryan, Jonathan Byrd, Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Austin Cook, Tommy Gainey, Cody Gribble, Lanto Griffin, Padraig Harrington, Nick Hardy, Jim Herman, Sung Kang, Patton Kizzire, Satoshi Kodaira, Martin Laird, Andrew Landry, Luke List, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Keith Mitchell, Francesco Molinari, Grayson Murray, Seung-yul Noh, Sean O’Hair, C.T. Pan, J.T. Poston, Davis Riley, J.J. Spaun, Scott Stallings, Kevin Streelman, Brian Stuard, Adam Svensson, Brendon Todd, Nick Watney.
This tournament was formally known as the McGladrey Classic, which in 2010-2012 formed part of the PGA Tour Fall Series with the 2013 renewal being played in November as part of the first wrap-around season structure. Every winner of the tournament has played a PGA Tour tournament post-East Lake. It’s also interesting to see that inaugural McGladrey champion Heath Slocum had captured The Barclays title 13 months previously in 2009. Of all the winners on the Seaside course, nobody has won a full Tour tournament in the calendar year prior to triumphing here.
Tommy Gainey, Robert Streb, Kevin Kisner, Mackenzie Hughes, Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan,Talor Gooch and Adam Svensson all captured their first main Tour titles here in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2022 respectively. Charles Howell III won here in 2018 – that was 11 and a half years after winning at Riviera in 2007. Streb was the first 2-time winner here in 2020.
I covered off many of the resident, Sea Island Golf Performance Center and SEC links at the top of this Preview. Local links are numerous, but a couple of additional themes jump out for this tournament. Three winners – namely Slocum, Kirk and Kisner – resided in the home state of Georgia when winning this title. You can add Charles Howell III to that list as “CHIII” was born in Augusta, Georgia, despite living in Orlando, Florida, when winning this in 2018. He was also a former Sea Island resident. Other winners have hailed from the southern states of the United States, namely Texas (Crane), South Carolina (Gainey), North Carolina (Hughes), Arkansas (Cook), Florida (Streb (at the time of his 2013 victory) & Duncan & Svensson) and Oklahoma (Gooch). Mackenzie Hughes and Austin Cook were both PGA Tour rookies.
Up until this point I always got the feeling that Matt Kuchar has taken the RSM Classic as a bit of a ‘jolly’. The St Simons Island resident is part of the ‘Sea Island Mafia’ so you guess that much of his focus on RSM week is taken by the Wednesday night Wiffle Ball Classic or social gatherings throughout the week. Kuchar has played this event 11 times. He’s finished 7th here in 2013, 25th (2010), 20th (2011), 22nd (2014) and 25th (2015). It’s solid enough form, but he’s never seriously challenged here and that surprises me at a tournament which should be perfect for his skill set. However all of this might change this week.
You see Matt, who was as low as 87th in the World Rankings when he teed it up at the Sony Open in January, has fought really hard in 2023 to right the ship and stop the mini-slump in his career. 7th at that Sony Open plus 8th at the Genesis Invitational were the pre-cursor to a valiant 3rd place at the Valero Texas Open, where he finished just 2 shots behind Corey Conners in his quest to gain the last invite to the Masters, which traditionally goes to the winner (if non-exempt) of the previous PGA Tour event. Matt missed his first Masters tournament since 2009.
Fast forward to now and Kuchar will stand on the 1st tee on Thursday with a huge opportunity within reach. 7th at the Fortinet Championship, 19th at the Andalucia Masters and 2nd last time out at the WWT Championship have seen the 45 year-old jump to 52nd in the OWGR. To put it in simple terms, a big performance on Sea Island this week will see him jump into the top 50 and ensure a 2024 Masters spot. Plus I’m sure, in a year which has seen the likes of Rose, Kirk, Day, Fowler, Harman, Glover and last week Villegas win after prolonged winless periods, Matt will want to build on his recent runner-up finish to Erik van Rooyen at the WWT and win his 10th PGA Tour title and first in almost 5 years. RESULT: T53
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Billy Horschel 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
We have been circling Billy Horschel at Golf Betting System for a while, with colleague Paul Williams or myself putting him up on betting previews and/or on the Golf Betting System Podcast during his recent DP World Tour campaign in Europe. 45th at the Irish Open (10th after 54 holes), 18th at the BMW PGA Championship (12th after 54 holes), 20th at the Open de France and 14th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (6th going into the final round), were the results from a 4 tournament campaign which could have delivered much, much more.
Billy plays in the United States for the first time since he finished 4th at the Wyndham Championship. That performance back in August is worthy of note as Horschel was the 54-hole leader at Sedgefield on a Bermudagrass golf course which he tends to thrive on. Indeed 4 of Horschel’s 7 PGA Tour victories have been on Bermudagrass golf courses across TPC Louisiana (2013 & 2018), East Lake (2014) and Austin Country Club (2021).
A Scoring Average of 68.07 here at the RSM Classic is 5th best of players who have played here more than twice competitively and Billy was 2nd here in 2016. Currently 54th in the OWGR, a top 50 spot as we know is a big deal for any professional golfer, with a 2024 Masters invite the reward pre-Christmas if you can finish the year in that exclusive club. RESULT: MC
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Brendon Todd seems to be improving of late and that bodes well for the final week of the 2023 PGA Tour. As we know, 3 winners – namely Slocum, Kirk and Kisner – have resided in the home state of Georgia when winning this title. You can add Charles Howell III to that Georgian list as “CHIII” was born in Augusta, Georgia, despite living in Orlando, Florida, when winning this in 2018. So Brendon fits the bill on the basis that he lives in Watkinsville, Georgia.
A 3-time winner on the PGA Tour, wins have come at the Byron Nelson, on the Par 70 at Las Colinas in 2014. He won the 2019 Bermuda Championship on the sub-7,000 yard Port Royal Golf Course and 2 weeks later also won the OHL Classic at El Camaleon. Todd is undoubtedly a real “Island Tour” specialist.
2nd at Pebble Beach, 2nd at TPC Deere Run, 7th at Sedgefield and 6th at Silverado in 2023, Brendon like Kuchar and Horschel has a shot at OWGR top 50 this week, which he last held at the start of the 2021. Hitting greens in great regularity, that makes Todd a huge danger with his putting prowess. RESULT: T28
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We’ve seen rookies and Tour maidens win this in the recent past. The two rookies were Mackenzie Hughes (2016) who was a 250/1 chance, whereas Austin Cook (2017) won at 90/1. The latest 3 Tour maidens were Tyler Duncan (200/1), Talor Gooch (40/1) and last year Adam Svensson (150/1).
Davis Thompson in this field across my 8-week Strokes Gained Current Form tracker ranks in the top 10 and he was a progressive 15th last time out in the Mexican desert at the WWT Championship.
The thing that really appeals to me with Thompson are his local links to Sea Island, and this stretch of coastline. He lives on St Simons Island, practices at the Sea Island Performance Centre full-time, and his father is the RSM Classic tournament director. 23rd when playing here as an amateur 6 years ago, he astonishingly led the Tee to Green category that week across his 54 holes on the Seaside Course (remember they only capture Strokes Data on the Host Course).
And from an amateur perspective he’s performed extremely well both on the Seaside Course and next door at the Ocean Forest Golf Club. 4th (2017), 15th (2018), 2nd (2019), 1st (2020) and 2nd (2021) at the Jones Cup (Ocean Forest) and 4th (2019) at the SEC Championship, highlights a player who has had huge success here. Well worth a follow this week at backable each-way odds. RESULT: T53
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Matt NeSmith 0.5pt EW 125/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Matt NeSmith is finding his prowess again with his key skill which is ball-striking as ranks of 4th, 23rd and 5th across his last 3 tournaments highlight nicely. 25th at the Sanderson Farms, 42nd at the Shriners Children’s Open and 15th at the ZOZO Championship were the corresponding finishes as NeSmith looks to put a very indifferent 2023 behind him. Matthew must arrive at the RSM Classic in ever more confident spirits.
Plus NeSmith undoubtedly knows this area very well, as he takes the short trip down IS95 from his base in Aiken, South Carolina. As an amateur he finished 4th (2013), 5th (2015) and 2nd (2016) at the Jones Cup played next door at Ocean Forest Golf Club. And as we know the Southeastern Conference (SEC) Universities Stroke Play tournament is played here on the Seaside Course every April. NeSmith playing for the University of South Carolina, finished 20th (2013), 21st (2014), 1st (2015) and 13th (2016) across his 4 outings. Impressive results and intimate course knowledge all rolled into one.
His RSM Classic resume is also excellent. A -7/65 on Plantation and closing round -5/65 on the Seaside Course were the highlights of a 14th place finish in his first RSM Classic here in 2019. He followed that up with 15th in 2020 and 29th in 2021 but was disappointing 12 months ago when he went off at a rather well-backed 40/1 and shorter.
Very much out of the limelight this time around and with a definite leaning to southern state Bermudagrass golf courses, where he undoubtedly putts his best, I could undoubtedly see NeSmith being in contention on the Atlantic coast. RESULT: T28
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Robby Shelton 0.5pt EW 200/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Tennessee Korn Ferry Tour graduate Robby Shelton is a 4-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour. Wins at the 2019 Nashville Golf Open (Tennessee), 2019 Knoxville Golf Open (Tennessee) and the 2022 BMW Charity Pro-Am (South Carolina) highlight a player who is happiest in the south eastern United States.
It’s taken time for Shelton to feel at home at the higher level on the PGA Tour, but Robby post-FedExCup PlayOffs has been playing much better stuff. 19th at the Fortinet Championship saw him in 8th place going into Sunday. That was then followed-up by his best ever finish on the PGA Tour – namely 4th at the ZOZO Championship in Japan last month. Never the most consistent, 59th at the WWT Championship a fortnight ago is the kind of form recent winners of this have actually entered with!
And he must be looking forward to his trip to Sea Island this week, on a course he has plenty of experience of as both an amateur and a professional. 2014 saw him finish 3rd here on the Seaside Course in the SEC Championship, a feat he repeated in 2015. Plus at the Jones Cup played just up the coast at the Ocean Forest Golf Club he has finished 17th in 2014 and 22nd in 2015.
Robby also showed form here at the RSM Classic 12 months ago, with a lightening fast finish which featured a couple of weekend -5/65s. That Seaside Course 36-hole weekend scoring was behind only winner Adam Svensson and Brian Harman, and catapulted the talented 28 year-old from 60th to 10th. With calm conditions in play post-Thursday, Robby could well play catch-up again this week on scoreable set-ups. RESULT: MC
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