A staple on the PGA Tour since 1994, the Sanderson Farms has been promoted from an alternate event to a full 500 Point FedEx Cup event with a healthy $7.6 million on the table for the visiting players. For reference this week’s DP World Tour Alfred Dunhill Links Championship has a $5 million fund.
It’s a very, very weak PGA Tour field with Nick Dunlap the only player from the World’s top 50 players in attendance. Behind him Eric Cole, Stephan Jaeger, Lucas Glover, Mackenzie Hughes, Rickie Fowler and Ben Griffin are within the World’s top 70.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the Sanderson Farms Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: Despite extending the Country Club of Jackson course by 57 yards in 2018, the course doesn’t hold too many fears for PGA Tour pros. At 7,461 yards for a Par 72, length is pretty standard for these modern times, especially as it’s set on a flat property with fairways that are relatively wide by modern standards. Trees are a feature on most holes but they’re relatively sparse and the course features plenty of straight holes.
Country Club of Jackson, Jackson, Mississippi: Designer: Wilson , 1962, Fought redesign, 2008; Course Type: Mid-Score, Long; Par: 72; Length: 7,461 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 5; Number of Sand Bunkers: 56; Acres of Fairway: 28; Fairways: 419 Bermudagrass; Rough: 419 Bermudagrass with Zeon Zoysiagrass, 2.5″; Greens: 6,200 sq.ft average Champion Ultra Dwarf Bermudagrass.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2023: 70.25 (-1.75), Rank 45 of 58 courses
2022: 71.15 (-0.85), Rank 29 of 50 courses
2021: 69.87 (-2.13), Rank 45 of 50 courses
2020: 71.08 (-0.92), Rank 32 of 51 courses
2019: 70.90 (-1.10), Rank 26 of 41 courses
2018: 71.25 (-0.75), Rank 26 of 49 courses
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for CC of Jackson and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Overview: The course is a mixture of 2 sets of 9 holes, namely Azalea and Dogwood. John Fought, who re-modelled the course in 2008, is an admirer of Donald Ross’s work and as such it’s interesting to note that green complexes on the whole are raised and have run-off areas similar to many a Ross design. Greens are pretty average in size – 6,200 sq.ft. average – and feature Ultradwarf Champion Bermudagrass.
Across the recent PGA Tour schedule, the courses where Champion Bermudagrass greens feature are Congaree (2021 Palmetto Championship & 2022 CJ Cup), the Country Club of Jackson, The Dunes Golf and Beach Club (2024 Myrtle Beach Classic), Sedgefield Country Club, TPC Southwind and Quail Hollow (since the 2017 PGA Championship). You can also add to the list Pinehurst Number 2 which hosted this year’s U.S. Open as it also featured Champion.
Visually the course looks quite tight and with Nick Taylor, Peter Malnati, Cody Gribble, Ryan Armour, Sebastian Munoz, Sergio Garcia and Sam Burns all ending up at least mid-division for driving accuracy when winning here, a level of respect off the tee seemed a pre-requisite.
However the severe “bomb and gouge” tactics of Cameron Champ worked fantastically well in 2018 as he posted at the time a CC of Jackson record winning score of -21/267 to beat Corey Conners by 4 shots. 2022 saw Mackenzie Hughes hit only 27 of 56 fairways (48.2%) plus 30 yards off the tee shorter than Champ as he edged out Sepp Straka in a play-off. Plus last year Luke List ranked 10th for Driving Distance – 313 yards – and like Hughes only hit 27 of 56 fairways when shooting -18/270 across 72 holes. Hitting fairways is therefore no pre-requisite for victory here in Mississippi.
The Country Club of Jackson does present a level of challenge and interestingly we’ve seen a mix of relatively fast, soft and cold/windy conditions across the past 10 renewals held here. Ultimately though winning scores of -20/268, -19/269, -21/267, -18/270, -19/269, -22/266, 17/271 and -18/270 over the past 8 years highlight a tournament where lowish scoring and top-notch Champion Bermudagrass putting are the order of the day.
The key to contending here seems to be to unlock a relatively difficult set of par-5s – in the top 10 most difficult for Birdie or Better Conversion on the PGA Tour most years – whilst scoring well on a set of par-4s that are far easier in comparison. Taylor, Malnati, Gribble, Armour, Champ and List all topped the field for birdies made on their way to victory here. Whilst Munoz, Garcia, Burns and Hughes were ensconced within the top 10 for birdie and better conversion whilst only leaking 3, 5, 4 and 4 bogeys respectively.
Sanderson Farms Championship Winners: 2023: Luke List (-18); 2022: Mackenzie Hughes (-17); 2021: Sam Burns (-22); 2020: Sergio Garcia (-19); 2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18); 2018: Cameron Champ (-21); 2017: Ryan Armour (-19); 2016: Cody Gribble (-20); 2015: Peter Malnati (-18); 2014: Nick Taylor (-16).
Shots From the Lead: Below are the Sanderson Farms Championship winners since 2014 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
Peter Malnati: 56th Shriners/MC Fry’s Open/MC web.com TC/MC Nationwide Children’s.
Nick Taylor: MDF McGladrey/56th Shriners/MC Fry’s Open/21st web.com Tour Championship.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Keith Mitchell, Jhonattan Vegas, Patton Kizzire, Lucas Glover, J.J. Spaun, Chan Kim, Joel Dahmen, Patrick Fishburn, Harris English and Henrik Norlander.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
2023: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. High of 84. Wind SSW 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy with morning showers. High of 84. Wind N 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: Sunny and breezy. High of 72. Wind N 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 74. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
2022: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind NNE 10-15, gusting to 20 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 79. Wind N 10-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind N 6-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 83. Wind N 6-12 mph.
2021: Thursday: Overcast, with light showers off and on. High of 82. Wind SSE 7-12 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SE 8-13 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers. High of 81. Wind SSE 7-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with possible showers. High of 82. Wind SW 8-13 mph.
2020: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind NNW 7-14 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 73. Wind NE 4-8 mph in the morning, switching to NNW 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind ENE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind NNW 5-10 mph.
2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 92. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended at 2:46 p.m. CT and called for the day at 5:57 p.m. Friday: Round one resumed at 7:01 a.m. Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Due to darkness, round two was suspended at 7:03 p.m. Saturday: Round two resumed at 7:30 a.m. and ended at 9:34 a.m. Third-round tee times were adjusted to be between 10:30 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. in threesomes of Nos. 1 and 10. Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind SSE 6-12 mph, with gusts to 15 mph.
2018: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 61. Wind NW 10-15, with gusts to 20 mph. Due to darkness, round one was suspended for the day at 6:13 p.m. and resumed at 8:20 a.m. Friday (12 players). Friday: Round one concluded at 8:41 a.m., with round two beginning as scheduled at 7:20 a.m. Light rain and cloudy. High of 61. Wind NW 10-15, with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 70. Wind W 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 83. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
2017: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 79. Wind SSW 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with a high of 77. Wind SSW 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: High of 58. NNW wind 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny and cool, with a high of 63. NW wind 7-12 mph.
2016: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 86. Wind S 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 87. Wind S 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 88. Wind SSW 5-10 mph.
2015: Thursday: Cloudy, with showers off and on throughout the day. High of 81 degrees. Winds SSW 7-14 mph. Friday: Due to lightning, round two was suspended for the day at 4:49 p.m. Saturday: Cloudy, with rain throughout the day. High of 68 degrees, with NNE winds 10-15 mph. Play was called for the day just before 2 p.m. local time with 76 players remaining to complete the second round. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 62 degrees. NNE winds 10-15 mph. Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 66 degrees. Winds NNW 5-10 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Jackson, Mississippi is here.
Now we do see varied turf conditions from year to year here. With 67mm of rain in September, expect a tiny bit of cut on the fairways, but with a low chance of rain this week I would expect running fairways and watered, receptive greens. Light winds look a feature pretty much throughout and with temperatures of 26-31 degrees Celsius – 79-88 Fahrenheit – I’m expecting a winning score around that -20/268 or slightly lower mark.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Wyndham Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Austin Smotherman; 2) Cameron Champ/ Keith Mitchell; 4) Patrick Fishburn; 5) Alex Smalley; 6) Chesson Hadley; 7) Scott Gutschewski; 8) Norman Xiong; 9) Matt NeSmith; 10) Stephan Jaeger / J.J. Spaun / Gary Woodland; 13) Wesley Bryan; 14) Chan Kim; 15) Joseph Bramlett; 16) Chandler Phillips; 17) Rico Hoey / Nicholas Lindheim; 19) Seamus Power / Patrick Rodgers; 21) Ryan Fox / Hayden Springer; 23) Jhonattan Vegas; 24) Zac Blair / Emiliano Grillo.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Sam Ryder; 2) C.T. Pan; 3) Doug Ghim; 4) Ben Kohles; 5) Chan Kim; 6) Joe Highsmith / Chez Reavie; 8) Nick Dunlap; 9) Emiliano Grillo / Andrew Novak; 11) Ben Griffin / Phillip Knowles; 13) Nick Hardy / J.J. Spaun; 15) Tom Whitney; 16) Greyson Sigg; 17) David Lipsky; 18) Henrik Norlander; 19) Eric Cole / Trace Crowe / Trey Mullinax; 22) Nate Lashley; 23) Ryan Fox; 24) Parker Coody / Justin Lower.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Robby Shelton; 2) Patton Kizzire; 3) Mackenzie Hughes; 4) Taylor Montgomery; 5) Chandler Phillips; 6) Seamus Power; 7) Aaron Baddeley / Brice Garnett; 9) Greyson Sigg; 10) Lucas Glover; 11) Chad Ramey; 12) Davis Riley; 13) Peter Malnati; 14) Nick Dunlap / Ben Griffin; 16) Stephan Jaeger / Adam Svensson; 18) Tyson Alexander / Vince Whaley; 20) J.B. Holmes / Patrick Rodgers; 22) Philip Knowles; 23) Roger Sloan; 24) Nicolas Echavarria; 25) Beau Hossler.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Chan Kim; 2) J.J. Spaun; 3) Patrick Fishburn / Chez Reavie; 5) Andrew Novak; 6) Patton Kizzire; 7) Keith Mitchell; 8) Henrik Norlander / Austin Smotherman; 10) Ben Griffin; 11) Ryan Fox / Charley Hoffman; 13) Roger Sloan; 14) Seamus Power; 15) Nick Dunlap / Greyson Sigg; 17) Rico Hoey / C.T. Pan; 19) Joseph Bramlett / Sam Ryder; 21) Jhonattan Vegas; 22) Joel Dahmen / Nick Hardy; 24) Brice Garnett / Beau Hossler.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Luke List; 2) Chris Gotterup; 3) Adam Svensson; 4) Austin Smotherman; 5) Mackenzie Hughes / Matt Kuchar; 7) Aaron Baddeley / Zach Johnson; 9) Sami Valimaki; 10) Davis Riley; 11) Justin Lower / Norman Xiong; 13) Jacob Bridgeman / Adrien Dumont de Chassart / Taylor Montgomery; 16) Martin Laird; 17) Zac Blair / Eric Cole / Seamus Power; 20) Rafael Campos; 21) Keith Mitchell; 22) Nick Dunlap / Brandt Snedeker; 24) Kevin Tway; 25) Nicolas Echavarria / Joe Highsmith / Charley Hoffman.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Austin Smotherman; 2) Adam Svensson; 3) Keith Mitchell; 4) Matt Kuchar; 5) J.J. Spaun; 6) Charley Hoffman / Chan Kim; 8) Justin Lower; 9) Seamus Power; 10) Patrick Fishburn; 11) Roger Sloan; 12) Chandler Phillips; 13) Ben Griffin; 14) Rico Hoey / Mackenzie Hughes; 16) Zach Johnson / Patrick Rodgers; 18) Eric Cole; 19) Zac Blair / Nick Dunlap / Chris Gotterup / Nicolas Echavarria; 23) Patton Kizzire; 24) Chez Reavie / Davis Riley / Kevin Tway.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Jackson click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Sanderson Farms Championship winners here at Jackson since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this Par 72:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2023, Luke List (-18). SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 48th, SG Around the Green: 6th, SG Tee to Green: 14th, SG Putting: 7th.
2022, Mackenzie Hughes (-17). SG Off the Tee: 57th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 14th.
2021, Sam Burns (-22). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 34th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 57th.
2020, Sergio Garcia (-19). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 46th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 28th.
2019, Sebastian Munoz (-18). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 20th, SG Around the Green: 40th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 5th.
2018, Cameron Champ (-21). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 21st, SG Around the Green: 42nd, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 2nd.
2017, Ryan Armour (-19). SG Off the Tee: 39th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 2nd.
2016, Cody Gribble (-20). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 28th, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 1st.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 17th, SG Approach: 13th, SG Around the Green: 19th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 12th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2014 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2023, Luke List (-18). 313 yards (10th), 48.2% fairways (53rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (7th), 41’9″ proximity to hole (70th), 75.0 % scrambling (19th), 1.64 putts per GIR (10th).
2022, Mackenzie Hughes (-17). 305 yards (25th), 48.2% fairways (50th), 66.7% greens in regulation (37th), 35’3″ proximity to hole (14th), 91.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.63 putts per GIR (8th).
2021, Sam Burns (-22). 315 yards (17th), 67.9% fairways (8th), 87.5% greens in regulation (1st), 34’11” proximity to hole (21st), 55.6 % scrambling (58th), 1.62 putts per GIR (11th).
2020, Sergio Garcia (-19). 306 yards (9th), 60.7% fairways (14th), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 31″10″ proximity to hole (6th), 66.7% scrambling (29th), 1.67 putts per GIR (10th).
2019, Sebastian Munoz (-18). 315 yards (4th), 51.8% fairways (36th), 79.2% greens in regulation (9th), 35″4″ proximity to hole (28th), 80.7 % scrambling (7th), 1.65 putts per GIR (11th).
2018, Cameron Champ (-21). 334 yards (1st), 46.4% fairways (65th), 76.4% greens in regulation (9th), 37″5″ proximity to hole (36th), 58.8 % scrambling (55th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
2017, Ryan Armour (-19). 269 yards (69th), 71.4% fairways (3rd), 79.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 29″5″ proximity to hole (1st), 53.3 % scrambling (60th), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
2016, Cody Gribble (-20). 312 yards (11th), 51.8% fairways (38th), 72.2% greens in regulation (29th), 36″3″ proximity to hole (31st), 80.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.56 putts per GIR (1st).
2015, Peter Malnati (-18). 266 yards (66th), 58.9% fairways (35th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 34″8* proximity to hole (33rd), 58.3 % scrambling (62nd), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd).
2014, Nick Taylor (-16). 295 yards (11th), 53.6% fairways (40th), 80.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 36″4″ proximity to hole (32nd), 71.4 % scrambling (17th), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 22nd, Driving Accuracy: 34th, Greens in Regulation: 10th, Proximity to Hole: 27th, Scrambling: 31st, Putting Average 6th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how Country Club of Jackson has set up in the past and what specific skills it requires:
Luke List (2023): “Yeah, Napa I was kind of just squeaking by and not really hitting it great but made some really good putts there, some inside six feet, which has been my nemesis my whole career. Then to come out and feel like on perfect greens if you roll it well, they’re going to go in. Just gave myself a fair amount of opportunities and kept plugging along and took advantage of the easy holes on the back nine.
Yeah, it’s in fantastic shape every year. The greens are perfect. You know coming in if you can kind of plot along, keep it out of the rough, take advantage of the par-5s and hole some putts, you’re going to be right there on Sunday.
Obviously the greens stand out. They’re probably the most pure Bermuda greens we play, so this time of year, pretty consistent. They usually have a little bit of rough that makes a premium on hitting the fairways, and then the weather is nice, too.”
Mackenzie Hughes (2022): “Yeah, it was a lot of fun today, and the greens are fantastic. They are some of the best surfaces that we play all year. They’re really fast. You come down grain, downhill, they’re some of the fastest greens you play all year. It’s really fun to get on a roll with the putter when the greens are this good because you feel like you get it on line, it’s going to go in.
Yeah, that putt, you just don’t practice putts that long. It was super fast. I just kept telling myself that I was going to two-putt that putt. I was going to get down there and I was going to make it. My mental demeanour, my outlook has been so much better. I’ve been trying to be really positive. I’ve been trying to tell myself that I’m really good, and I think it’s easy in this game to go the other way and to beat yourself up sometimes. I was pretty relentless in my ability to tell myself that you’re really good and to go trust it.”
Sam Burns (2021): “Yeah, this is one of my favorites all year. I think these are probably some of the best greens we play all year. I like the golf course, I like the Bermuda grass, similar to kind of what I grew up on home, kind of tree-lined fairways and so yeah I’m really excited. I don’t know what the weather looks like, I think it’s going to be okay, so I think the golf course will firm up, get firmer and faster and it will be a good test.”
Sergio Garcia (2020): “Yes, but you have to be, even playing as well as I played today, you’re still going to miss a couple of greens here and there because it’s a little tricky with the way the greens are, as fast as they are. You’re hitting to small spots because you know that if you miss your spot it’s going to run and you’re going to have a longish putt that is not easy to two-putt. Your short game still has to be good, which it has been for me, and your putter has to be good. I’ve been able to put pretty much everything together this week, and I have to do more of the same tomorrow.
I obviously knew that Peter – he finished at 18, so I knew that I needed to birdie one of the last two or three to get ahead. I actually thought I birdied 17. I hit a great putt. I thought I made it. Unfortunately I didn’t. But then I stood up on 18 and I did what I’ve been doing all week. I trusted myself. I aimed down the right side of the fairway and just hit a hard draw, really, really nice drive, actually went quite long because it was playing a little bit into the wind, and it gave me the ability to have an 8-iron into the green instead of having a 6 or something like that, and then just hit, funny enough, my last win, Augusta, well, my last win on the PGA Tour at Augusta, the 8-iron on 15, this time it was the 8-iron on 18, and to almost hit the pin again and to hit it that close, obviously it was a dream come true.”
Sebastian Munoz (2019): “Yeah, so on 6 I hit my driver left and it was unlucky enough that it hit one of the first trees and came back. So by my calculations we had like 235 front with not a lot of options in front of me. Like had to keep it low, and fairway runs on an angle. So it was really easy to hit it from the rough to the rough and have like 90 or 130 out. So I saw, it’s probably like 260 to the pin. That’s what I had the my 3-wood. If I just slice it, which is the shot I feel more comfortable with, fade instead of draw, I could give myself a chance. I saw a bounce there and just reminded me of Phil. What would Phil do? I’m like, Fortune favors the bold, so took it, believed in myself, pulled the shot, and got the up and down. Make it all worth it.
And then back on the playoff hole, all back to the beginning. Still like my heartbeat was still up. All right, calm down. We still got work to do. Still hit a good drive, and from there on. Once I notice Sungjae was over the green, all I wanted to do was kind of keep it short of the pin. I knew that’s a tough up and down. So hit the 9-iron, but it didn’t came as hot as I thought it was going to be from the rough. Left it short, and that’s not an easy chip. These Bermuda greens, they kind of check pretty fast on you. Got to be pretty bold. It’s just different way to play it.”
Cameron Champ (2018): “Obviously driver is the key out here, I think. If I hit driver well out here, like I said, it’s a very scoreable course. So I just kept hitting it as much as I could. Even if the fairways were tighter, I felt like if I was further up, even in the rough versus hitting a 3-wood being 40 yards back, I would rather be up there. I guess that’s the game plan.”
Ryan Armour (2017): “You just try. I mean, you’re not always going to be able to, but my strength is – obviously have figured this out finally – is driving it in the fairway, hitting it on the green, and trying to make putts. You get some wedges in your hand on 14 and 15, so you’re looking to make up some ground there. 13 is a good little par-3. Just have had good numbers there the last two days. Then 16, chip-in yesterday, 60-footer today. I don’t overpower a golf course. I don’t go for very many par-5s. I had a chance to go for No. 11 and I laid up. It’s just one of those making percentage choices for me.”
Cody Gribble (2016): “Well, first, being in the South, growing up on Bermuda fairways, Bermuda greens, it’s something difficult, I think. There were some places in there, I think even on 15 – I think it was 15, yeah, there’s some grain running into you. It’s not a comfortable feeling when you’re having to hit a chip that all that grain is tight going into you. That’s something I’ve been able to learn from a young age, and Randy has done a really good job helping me do that through the years. It goes down to just knowing where the pin is at on every green, and do you have a miss, knowing your misses, knowing where to miss the ball, knowing where you can’t miss the ball. I think in the last 54 holes, I’ve made one bogey, and that was on 12, and the pin was front right, and you cannot miss that ball right. I looked at Bob, and I was like – I watched Andres Romero hit a shot almost in the water left, and he was in a better position than I was 20 feet right of the hole.”
Peter Malnati (2015): “I mean, the course suits my strengths really well. Several of the par-4s I’m able to hit a short iron into. Because of the wetness, the softness of the conditions, I think that sort of neutralized the par-5s. Some of the longer hitters were probably able to get up there in two on the par-5s, but I’d say the majority of the field probably couldn’t, so the par-5s became a bit of a wedge contest, which plays right into my hands. Like I said, several of the par-4s give you a short iron; plays right into my hands. And then the two holes that you would kind of pinpoint as being longer holes, 16 and 18, I really played well all week. I hit it in the water on 16 in the first round I remember, but outside of that, I think I made nothing but pars, maybe a birdie or two even on 16 and 18. If I have a week where I’m going to take those long par-4s and play them well, I really feel like that’s the week when I’m going to be up there and be in contention, and sure enough, it was this week.”
Nick Taylor (2014): “Yeah, the finishing holes 16, 17, 18, it was a good finish. But there were some tougher holes, I think. Some scoring holes on the back nine, both par 5s you can get to the front of the green or around them. 15, I did, and I hit it 20 yards from the green. So I’m not sure if it opened the tee up, but a lot of guys hit driver into that. There were some scoring holes, but you have to hit the fairways on all the par 4s to have a chance to go at the pins because if you have the wet Bermuda, it’s tough to judge coming out of there, and the greens are so quick. So fairways are key for sure, but they’re definitely scoring.”
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Zach Johnson, Camilo Villegas.
3 – Matt Kuchar, Brandt Snedeker.
2 – Daniel Berger, Harris English, Lucas Glover, Mackenzie Hughes, Peter Malnati.
1 – Aaron Baddeley, Wesley Bryan, Cameron Champ, Tyler Duncan, Nick Dunlap, Chris Gotterup, Nick Hardy, Garrick Higgo, J.B. Holmes, Stephan Jaeger, Patton Kizzire, Martin Laird, Luke List, Keith Mitchell, Taylor Moore, C.T. Pan, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, J.J. Spaun, Kevin Streelman, Adam Svensson, Jhonattan Vegas, Gary Woodland.
It’s clear that up until this point the Sanderson Farms Championship has been volatile in terms of its winners since it moved to its autumn spot in the season. Tour rookie Nick Taylor was a 400/1 shot in 2014 and although Peter Malnati had a season’s PGA Tour experience behind him, his best main Tour finish before arriving in Mississippi had been 14th in Puerto Rico 18 months earlier. Malnati scored in Mississippi at 250/1 with a few punters stumbling on him mainly because he lived down the road in Knoxville, had won on Bermudagrass greens in Brazil on the Korn Ferry Tour earlier in the season, and was known for his birdie-making style in softer conditions.
Cody Gribble in 2016 was a well-backed form horse who had finished 5th in his last Korn Ferry Tour outing and a comfortable 9th on his PGA Tour debut 2 weeks prior in Napa, California. Plenty of punters scored on the Texan rookie at a rather tasty 125/1. 2017 saw Ryan Armour score his maiden PGA Tour victory at the Sanderson Farms – his build-up had included 4th at the Sedgefield hosted Wyndham on the PGA Tour and 2nd at Ohio State GC in the Korn Ferry Playoffs. His win was again at 125/1.
2018 saw Cameron Champ deliver at 66/1. Rated by a couple of commentators as one of the best players to have been promoted from the Korn Ferry Tour, Champ had finished 25th at the season-opening Safeway Open, where he closed with a -4/68 – the joint third best Sunday round. His Korn Ferry Playoffs campaign had seen him finish a best of 16th at the DAP Championship, but Champ was undoubtedly talented, winning the Utah Championship and backing that up with 4 top-8 finishes. He also ranked 2nd for Scoring Average, 3rd for Total Driving, 2nd for Ball Striking, 5th for All-Round across his Korn Ferry promotion season.
2019 saw Sebastian Munoz become the sixth consecutive PGA Tour maiden to win the Sanderson Farms Championship and again at a 66/1 price point. 2019 had seen Munoz land 4 PGA Tour top-10 finishes, jumping 119 Official World Golf Ranking spots into the bargain. The week previous he had finished like a train at the Greenbrier Classic shooting consecutive Saturday and Saturday 66s to back-door 7th place. Tellingly he ranked 3rd for SG on Approach at the Greenbrier, in tandem with ranking in the top 7 across my 8-week rolling Strokes Gained Putting tracker.
With a slightly deeper field at the 2020 Sanderson Farms Championship, the tournament was remarkable for a 70/1 victory for Sergio Garcia. The price tells the story with Sergio winning off immediate form of MC/MC/66/MC. Clearly with a ceiling far better than his price, Garcia was the sort you could throw in at a price, based upon nothing at all positive in the immediate build-up. Correlating course-wise his win in the 2012 Wyndham at Sedgefield Country Club though was really concrete with the positive Champion Bermudagrass green link.
On to 2021 where Sam Burns won his 2nd PGA Tour title, 5 months after his first which had been the Valspar Championship at Copperhead. Burns at 16/1 had been joint favourite with Will Zalatoris and arrived with form which read 17th at the Tour Championship – 8th at the BMW Championship – 21st at the Northern Trust and 2nd at the WGC St Jude Invitational held on the Champion Bermudagrass greens of TPC Southwind.
That takes us on to 2022 which is quite painful as I was on Sepp Straka. Straka fresh from 7th (72-hole score) at the Tour Championship was a 40/1 chance and he eventually was defeated in a play-off by Mackenzie Hughes who won at 110/1 in a renewal which proved slightly tougher due to 15-20 mph winds on Thursday and Friday.
2023 saw Luke List land at 50/1 in a crazy Sanderson Farms renewal. List (of all players) sank a 45-foot putt for birdie on the 18th hole – the first hole of a sudden-death 5-man playoff – to claim his second win on the PGA Tour. List was making just his second start since the Genesis Scottish Open in July after being sidelined by a thumb injury.
My Final Sanderson Farms Championship Tips Are As Follows:
On a course where strong driving and high Greens in Regulation is important, I like the look of J.J. Spaun this week.
A winner of the 2022 Valero Texas Open on Bermudagrass-base greens, Spaun finds himself at 100th in the FedExCup Fall Series List – so this week is very much a free hit for the 33 year-old Californian. Fact is though that Spaun has been playing really well of late. 7 straight pay cheques include 10th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, 9th at the 3M Open and 3rd at the Wyndham Championship, the latter of which feature Champion Bermudagrass greens. His current good form is best highlighted by the fact that in this field across my 8-week Strokes Gained tracker J.J. sits in the top 5 for Current Form.
6th on the Carolina-type course that is Harbour Town (2017) is correlating form that I like, and looking at recent champions here I also like 2nd at Sea Island (2017) plus that recent 3rd at Sedgefield Country Club.
With a razor-sharp approach game marrying up with 6 positive Strokes Gained Putting performances in his last 7 appearances, I can see Spaun contending this week at the Sanderson Farms where Jackson course form isn’t overly important, but where the Californian has 3 pay cheques from his last 4 visits. RESULT: WD
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Shorter sorts like Nick Taylor, Ryan Armour and Mackenzie Hughes have won here at the Sanderson Farms Championship and I think Lucas Glover has a lot going for him as a bet this week. With win exemptions from last year he’s under no pressure to play this week, but has already started the FedExCup Fall Series well enough with a career best 13th at Silverado last time out. Worth referencing the fact that he was top 25 for both Strokes Gained Approach (his bread and butter) and interestingly enough Strokes Gained Putting in North California.
A 6-time winner on the PGA Tour which includes the 2009 U.S. Open plus the 2023 FedEx St Jude Invitational (FEC Playoff event), Glover has a huge advantage over most in this field, i.e. his ability to get across the line, plus after playing all of the 2024 Majors due to his 2 wins last summer, Glover will see this week as a huge opportunity to potentially rack-up his 7th win or grab big OWGR points towards jumping back into the World’s top 50 players by the close of 2024. Either would garner a 2025 Masters invitation pre-Christmas.
1st (2023) at Sedgefield plus 3rd (2022) & 1st (2023) at TPC Southwind, Lucas clearly gets on with Champion Bermudagrass greens, plus his record here at the Country Club of Jackson is also fascinating. 22nd here in 2014, Glover was 3rd after 54 holes. 5th here in 2016 is his best finish here in 7 visits, plus 14th here in 2018 saw Glover enter Sunday in 8th spot. Under the radar in my opinion. RESULT: T3
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Henrik Norlander 1pt EW 66/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Likely to be one of the bets of the week, Henrik Norlander is undoubtedly a ‘horse for the course’. 4th (2020), 4th (2021) and 2nd (2023) here at the Country Club of Jackson, Henrik in this field across our Sanderson Farms Strokes Gained Rankings ranks in the top 10 for Approach, Ball Striking and Tee to Green, plus the top 5 for Strokes Gained Total here at Jackson. To put that into more context, that’s across a whopping 22 rounds played here at the Sanderson Farms.
Henrik is also in decent enough nick finishing 11th (Barracuda), 12th (3M Open) and 8th (Omega European Masters) within his last 6 tournaments played. At 131st in the FedExCup Fall Series List, Norlander needs top finishes to reclaim a top 125 full privileges position back on the Tour, and he has always been the sort who pops-up on scoreable, Bermudagrass golf courses. RESULT: T28
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Garrick Higgo finds himself in a quandary. His Tour exemption for winning the 2021 Palmetto Championship is now exhausted and at 144th in the FedExCup Fall Series List he needs results and quickly to keep his full playing privileges on the PGA Tour. But the Country Club of Jackson historically suits longer hitters and a great week on the Champion Bermudagrass greens can undoubtedly get you in contention.
You have to say that Higgo is a Country Club of Jackson specialist. 8 rounds here have seen scores of 65, 66, 66, 68 and 68 and that has translated to 3rd (2022) and 16th (2023) place finishes. Putting that into Strokes Gained context across this field Garrick ranks in the top 10 for Off the Tee, top 5 for Putting, and 2nd for Strokes Gained Total across our Sanderson Farms Strokes Gained Rankings.
6th for Greens in Regulation – his best approach performance on the PGA Tour for over 18 months – when 26th at Silverado last time out has peaked my interest in the 25 year-old South African who undoubtedly performs well on Champion Bermudagrass greens. RESULT: MC
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Pierceson Coody 1pt EW 110/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Pierceson Coody is maturing nicely and for Country Club of Jackson debutants I’m sweet on him this week. Motivation-wise Coody finds himself at 121st in the FedExCup Fall Series List, so he needs a strong end to the year to guarantee full playing privileges for 2025. It’s worth remembering that he’s already finished 5th at Colonial and 2nd at Keene Trace in his rookie season and if the past is a precursor to the future, we’ve also seen across his Korn Ferry Tour career that Coody is a 3-time winner whose game both hangs around and travels. Plus his 2023 Panama Championship success came on Bermudagrass greens.
In the top 20 for Driving Distance on Tour and the top 11 for Strokes Gained Putting, the 24 year-old Texan is also in the top 25 for Birdie Average – that equates to 10th in this field. On a course where low scoring will be required this week, it’s also worth remembering that he shot an opening -11/61 at Keene Trace – T8 lowest round on Tour in 2024.
3rd for Greens in Regulation, 4th for Total Driving and 2nd for Ball Striking last time out at the Procore Championship, I think Jackson should really suit the world number 157. RESULT: MC
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Kevin Tway 1pt EW 125/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Kevin Tway also interests. The sort who has always been sparky, Tway puts 2 or 3 decent finishes together and then disappears into the abyss for a period of time. April and May is a prime example as he finished 3rd at Corales, 11th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans (teamed with Kelly Kraft) and 9th at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
Tway has quietly had a much better season in 2024, now sitting on the verge of gaining full PGA Tour status for 2025 – ranking at 117th in the FedExCup Fall Series List right now. That would be a huge step forward for Kevin who over the past couple of seasons has been playing off partial status, not being able to have full control of his schedule.
So Tway has plenty to play for and I also like his game shape this week – a bomber – 36th in Driving Distance – who also ranks in this field within the top 25 across my Strokes Gained tracker for both Putting and Current Form. RESULT: MC
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