Scottish Championship Tips 2020

A short field this week has made for a particularly unattractive betting heat, however of the market principals I’m drawn most to Eddie Pepperell.

It’s always with some trepidation that I back the popular Englishman, particularly at relatively short prices, however a combination of positively trending results and a return to the type of terrain where Eddie’s enjoyed the bulk of his success points towards another contending week, as he looks to advance further up the world rankings having re-entered the OWGR top-100 last week.

9^th at the Scottish Open on a layout that carries a lot of parallels to this week’s task was the 29 year-old’s first top-10 finish for very nearly 12 months and he promptly backed that effort up with a 6^th place finish last week at Wentworth, both of which were at Rolex Series level and a good notch or two above this week’s standard.

2^nd for Strokes Gained Putting on the fescue-based greens of Renaissance Club is an interesting pointer ahead of this week’s task, particularly given the clues that we can glean from the Senior Scottish Open events held here in the past, and 1^st for Strokes Gained Approach last week in Surrey suggests that he’s playing some very nice golf at present and will likely give himself a lot of opportunities here at Fairmont.

Last week’s effort ranks 7^th in Pepperell’s highest OWGR-yielding results in his career to date. If we put his 3^rd place finish at the 2019 Players Championship to one side for a moment – as impressive as it was – then the rest of his best performances all carry some relevance to this week’s task.

His Qatar Masters success at the start of 2018 was achieved on a Doha track which is often considered linksy in style and certainly appeals to those players more adept on links terrain; his other European Tour victory – 2 years ago this week for those who believe in biorhythm trends – was at Walton Heath, another exposed track with a linksy feel.

A 2015 play-off defeat to Soren Kjeldsen at Royal County Down (Irish Open) and another runner-up finish, this time to Brandon Stone at Gullane (Scottish Open) in 2018, both offer tangible, contending links form and it’s clear that the Oxfordshire man is very much at home on this type of test. 6^th at the Open Championship at nearby Carnoustie is further evidence and this title is very much winnable should Eddie apply himself to the task at hand here this week. RESULT: T16

This time next year, Padraig Harrington will (fingers crossed) have presided over Team Europe’s Ryder Cup campaign at Whistling Straits. Win or lose, it will be an incredible experience for a man who’s given much to the sport, and from January he’ll undoubtedly be back focussing 100% on all aspects of his captaincy.

The form of Ryder Cup captains often falters during the qualification campaign, however the enforced pause in proceedings due to the pandemic offers the Irishman a period of carefree golf and there are good signs that he’s still competitive at European Tour level, despite being eligible for the Senior Tour in less than a year’s time.

It’s now 4 years since the former OWGR number 3 returned to this level following a poor run of form on the PGA Tour and promptly won the Portugal Masters to prove that he still had that ruthless streak when the opportunity arose. 4^th at both the Scottish and Turkish Opens the following year, plus 2^nd at the Czech Masters, 5^th at the KLM Open and 7^th at the Dunhill Links in 2018, all suggested he could still cut it at this kind of level before his form tailed off as Ryder Cup planning took precedence.

Interesting then that with the focus off for the time being, the 3-time Major Champion has shown some glimpses of form. 9^th at the Scottish Open is a good pointer for this on the faux links of the Renaissance Club, and 4^th for Putting Average and 5^th for Total Putts is a big positive for this week given what we can glean from the Senior events held here.

40^th last week at Wentworth doesn’t scream impending success on the face of it, however dig below the surface and we see a long game that was firing on all cylinders with Harrington ranking 2^nd for Driving Accuracy, 6^th for Total Driving and 6^th for Ball Striking – interesting metrics from a player who’s more commonly renowned for his short game wizardry.

A move back to links-style terrain can only help Paddy’s chances this week. Two Open Championship wins plus two Dunhill Links wins in close proximity to this week’s venue are the immediate pointers to this week’s task in a career that’s been punctuated with strong performances on coastal tests such as this week. RESULT: T14

Things as certain as death and taxes: Matthew Southgate making an appearance in my staking plan as we head to a links(y) track. If you’ve read my previews in the past then you can most likely skip the next paragraph or 3 and make your own mind up whether to back the links-loving Englishman here, or to ignore my infatuation with Matt on this type of terrain.

Firstly the facts: Southgate produces his best results on exposed, links (or links-style) courses. He won the St Andrews Links Trophy in 2010 as an amateur; he was 2^nd a year later at the Scottish Hydro Challenge at the Macdonald Spey Valley Golf Club which has some linksy features; 2^nd at the Portstewart-hosted Irish Open, 5^th at the Open de France and 2^nd at the Dunhill Links on the European Tour also correlate to this week’s assignment, and that’s before we mention his 12^th place finish at Troon and 6^th place finish at Birkdale in 2016 and 2017 respectively.

9^th at Renaissance Club a fortnight ago was another positive finish on a course which, like this, is a manufactured rather than true links, and long-game ranks of 7^th for Driving Accuracy, 2^nd for GIR, 2^nd for Total Driving, 1^st for Ball-Striking and 3^rd for SG Tee-to-Green underline just how comfortable he feels on this kind of set-up.

For a player who missed all 5 cuts from his 2020 European Tour starts prior to lockdown, his form since has been an eye-opener to say the least. 10 cuts made from 11 starts is the kind of consistency that suggests that something positive has happened to the 32 year-old’s game and another paycheque when finishing 44th last week at Wentworth – having missed 3 of his previous 4 cuts in Surrey – has to be considered as a good sign ahead of a return to his favourite style of golf, plus he carries a little momentum having birdied 4 of his final 6 holes on Sunday. RESULT: T16

A flying start to his second round at Wentworth put Grant Forrest in a contending position briefly last week, and although he couldn’t maintain that lofty position in classy company as the weekend progressed, 32nd was a decent enough effort on his BMW PGA Championship debut.

Like Southgate though, a tree-lined parkland track isn’t the Scot’s strongest suit and, like Southgate, amateur success at the St Andrews Trophy gives us a good clue as to his liking for links golf. Not surprising really for a man who was born and raised in North Berwick, with its embarrassment of riches when it comes to quality links courses upon which to learn your trade, including Archerfield Links, Gullane and of course Muirfield. The 27 year-old represents Craigelaw Golf Club as you head just a little deeper into the Firth of Forth and it’s fair to say that he’s used to the kind of surroundings that we’ll see this week at Fairmont.

Last week marked Grant’s 100^th start as a professional in terms of OWGR-yielding events and although he’s yet to win in that time, he’s come close enough to suggest that his sparkling amateur career isn’t a red herring. 4 times he’s been a runner-up on the Challenge Tour and although the step up to European Tour level hasn’t yielded a stack of tangible form, there are definite signs that he’s getting to grips with golf at this level and success isn’t that far away.

7^th at the Mauritius Open in late 2018 was the first real sign that coastal golf might suit the 2015 Walker Cup winner and 4^th last year behind Rasmus Hojgaard in the same event – and just 1 shot outside the play-off – further proves that point. 14^th at last year’s Irish Open at Lahinch was a strong effort, particularly given the strength of the field and the fact that he was staring a cut in the face after an opening round of 71; 10^th at the Oman Open before lockdown also encourages given its aesthetic similarities to this week.

19^th at Renaissance Club a fortnight ago saw him produce a strong performance on and around the greens and with that spark of form last week at Wentworth also adding encouragement, I’m happy to side with the Scot here this week at a decent enough price. RESULT: MC